034 
ACUS01 KWNS 090555
SWODY1
SPC AC 090554

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OHIO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD,...AS WELL PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable
today, particularly across parts of the Ohio Valley into
Appalachians, and east of the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern
Gulf Coast states.

...Discussion...
It appears that mid/upper ridging inland of the Pacific coast
through the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies is
beginning to become suppressed by a short wave perturbation.  As
this continues, a seasonably deep downstream trough, currently still
digging through the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, is
forecast to pivot east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, gradually taking on a negative tilt as it does.  An
initially broad, modest associated surface cyclone may deepen some,
mainly across northern Ontario into the James Bay vicinity, with at
least a couple of reinforcing surges of cooler air overspreading the
Great Lakes region, Ohio and Mississippi Valleys.

Within a belt of more modest cyclonic mid/upper flow in latitudes to
the east of the southern Rockies, at least one notable meso-beta to
meso-alpha scale cyclonic circulation appears to be in the process
of developing near the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.  It appears that this
circulation will tend to migrate east-northeastward across and to
the east of the lower Mississippi Valley during the day.  However,
the extent to which it is maintained or becomes sheared, as
larger-scale troughing within the two branches of westerlies tends
to come in phase, remains unclear based on latest model output.

Upstream, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to dig inland of the
southern California coast, through the Southwest, around the
northeastern periphery of a prominent mid-level high over the
subtropical eastern Pacific.

Seasonably moist air appears likely to remain largely confined to a
remnant frontal zone across the southern tier of the U.S.,
associated with the modest southern mid- and subtropical westerlies.
However, a narrow plume of southerly return flow is ongoing ahead of
the lead reinforcing cold front now advancing southeast of the upper
Great Lakes and Midwest.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into south Atlantic Seaboard...
Potential convective evolution remains unclear, but guidance remains
suggestive that ongoing convective development propagating across
northeastern and north central Texas will be in the process of
weakening while spreading into Louisiana and upper Texas coastal
areas early in the period.  Additional convection is also likely to
be ongoing downstream of the emerging mesoscale vortex, aided by
low-level warm advection, as it migrates east of the Mississippi
Valley.  

The impact of this convection on boundary-layer destabilization
remains unclear.  However, while mid-level lapse rates may be weak,
with at least some insolation, boundary-layer dew points in excess
of 70 F across the Gulf Coast region may contribute to sufficient
destabilization to support at least scattered intensifying
thunderstorm development, both upstream and downstream of the
convective vortex.  Some of this activity may pose a risk for,
mainly, strong surface gusts.  A brief tornado also might be
possible, particularly near the convective vortex as long as it
remains relatively well-defined.  This severe risk may continue into
the south Atlantic Seaboard tonight, but this remains more unclear.

...Ohio Valley into Appalachians...
Moderate boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the lead cold front
might provide support for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development, including supercells, in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear beneath 40-60+ kt southwesterly mid/upper flow. 
Toward mid to late afternoon, it is possible that modestly deepening
surface troughing across the upper Ohio Valley into the lee of the
Allegheny front may provide a better defined focus for this threat.

...Great Lakes vicinity...
Convection-allowing model output and associated guidance suggest
that destabilization and shear may become supportive of convection
capable of producing severe hail and wind in a narrow corridor ahead
of a secondary surface cold front (closer to the mid-level cold core
overspreading the Great Lakes), as it advances across and
east-southeast of Lake Michigan this afternoon.

...Southern Rockies through northwestern Gulf coast...
Extensive convective outflow appears likely to be progressing into
and through the upper Texas coastal plain by the beginning of the
period, and perhaps gradually stalling across parts of south central
Texas into the Pecos Valley.  The gust front might still be a focus
for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development early in the
day, otherwise the extent of the outflow's stabilizing influence
remains unclear, particularly later in period to the lee of the
southern Rockies.  

Downstream of the Southwestern mid-level tough, models suggest that
destabilizing, moist upslope flow into the Raton Mesa/eastern slopes
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains might become supportive of a
couple of supercells and one or two small upscale growing
thunderstorm clusters.  Beneath modest to weak northwest mid-level
flow, this activity may pose a risk for severe hail and wind while
propagating off the higher terrain through this evening.  Continuing
development into portions of west Texas overnight is more unclear.

..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/09/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20250609T0555.txt



730 
ACUS01 KWNS 090048
SWODY1
SPC AC 090046

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm
development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley
vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more
prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing
potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas
and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight.

...01Z Update...
A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great
Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south
central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an
embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the
northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.  This is
preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic
Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to
the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by
strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated
mixed-layer air.

Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development early this evening.  However, outside of the southern
Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane
with the loss of daytime heating.

In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great
Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears
likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight,
generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now
extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas
Panhandle through north Texas.  Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on
the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor.  Although low-level
wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of
a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface
troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the
frontal zone across western North Texas.  Otherwise, a seasonably
strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the
500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone,
contributing to strong deep-layer shear.

Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential
convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across
parts of northern Texas.  Model output indicating some of the more
intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least
some, in intensity.  Regardless, there has been a consistent signal
that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River
vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening
cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with
intensifying rear inflow.  Given the environment, this still appears
possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of
potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the
Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight.

..Kerr.. 06/09/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20250609T0048.txt



807 
ACUS01 KWNS 081956
SWODY1
SPC AC 081954

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains
today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North
Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind
gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

...20Z Update...
With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe
probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not
expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in
parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the
current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast
remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large
hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the
southern Plains.

..Wendt.. 06/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/

...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma...
A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional
outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail
and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging
winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and
overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern
Oklahoma.

Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the
central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward
across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air
mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near
dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir
of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest
Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term
details.  

Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late
afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a
complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong
deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather
weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward
across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas,
likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs.

The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the
evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system
organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern
Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging
wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as
the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today,
with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by
afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of
VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s.  Persistent
clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. 
However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue
Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. 
Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for
supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
few tornadoes.

...Southeast...
Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind
damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal
portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through
mid-afternoon.

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20250608T1956.txt



275 
ACUS01 KWNS 081647
SWODY1
SPC AC 081645

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains
today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North
Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind
gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma...
A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional
outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail
and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging
winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and
overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern
Oklahoma.

Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the
central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward
across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air
mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near
dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir
of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest
Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term
details.  

Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late
afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a
complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong
deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather
weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward
across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas,
likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs.

The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the
evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system
organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern
Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging
wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as
the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today,
with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by
afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of
VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s.  Persistent
clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. 
However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue
Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. 
Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for
supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
few tornadoes.

...Southeast...
Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind
damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal
portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through
mid-afternoon.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/08/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20250608T1647.txt



046 
ACUS01 KWNS 081208
SWODY1
SPC AC 081207

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is possible across the southern Plains
today. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
giant hail up to 5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong gusts, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible along portions of
the East Coast.

...OK/TX...
Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the
central/southern Plains states, with a surface cold front sagging
southward across KS.  Ahead of the front, a very moist
boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of OK and TX, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Strong daytime heating
and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large
reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western OK and
northwest TX.  

Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late
afternoon along the cold front over northwest OK and along a complex
dryline structure over the eastern TX Panhandle.  Strong deep layer
shear will favor supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. 
Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be
possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central
OK and congeal into one or more bowing segments.  Recent CAM
solutions suggest pockets of deep boundary-layer mixing, with some
areas heating into the mid 90s while dewpoints drop into the 50s. 
If this scenario develops, significant wind and hail would remain a
concern, but the overall risk of tornadoes would be reduced.

The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the
evening as the convective complex tracks into northwest and
north-central TX.  The activity make remain intense as far east as
northern/central LA tonight.

...Central/North TX early afternoon...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing this morning between
ABI and LBB.  Other isolated cells are forming in eastern NM north
of TCC.  Given the very unstable environment, any one of these
clusters of storms could potentially persist through the day and
track southeastward into parts of central TX.  Large hail and
damaging winds would be the main concerns.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
A shortwave trough currently over OH will track eastward today, with
large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by
afternoon.  A moist surface air mass is present across much of
VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s.  Persistent
clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. 
However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue
Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. 
Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for
supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
few tornadoes.

...GA/SC...
A large MCS has persisted overnight across parts of AL/GA, with a
few strong storms along its leading edge.  Given a few hours of
daytime heating, these storms may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts
as they spread eastward toward the coast.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20250608T1208.txt