457 
ACUS01 KWNS 141633
SWODY1
SPC AC 141631

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper
Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic States.

...Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England...
Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI,
along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario
south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward
through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This
cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward
today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the
base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the
Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb
within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border. 

Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this
shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley,
with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH.
Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s
dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to
the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating
will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front,
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting
in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the
Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the
front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant
environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where
the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief
tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of
the wind profiles. 

Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited
buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England).
However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting
afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for
occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments. 

...Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee
troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and
evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the
cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a
separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. 

Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s
across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central
Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong
surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther
north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a
few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this
potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA
Tidewater region. 

Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a
modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle
TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from
upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells
initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low.
Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind
probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.

...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM
amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized
updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular
development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant,
linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are
possible with any stronger bowing segments.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/14/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260614T1633.txt



148 
ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected across the Upper Ohio River Valley and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley to New England...
A shortwave trough will steadily amplify over the Great Lakes with a
moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow across the
region. Near/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, increasing
thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon, increasing
in both coverage and intensity. Ample mid-level height falls and
around 40 kt of front-parallel effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado and/or hail could also occur
given the relative strength of the wind profiles.

...Mid-Atlantic to southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, generally focusing on a pre-frontal trough as
well as high terrain/Blue Ridge vicinity, with some additional sea
breeze augmentations across the Carolinas/coastal plain. From
roughly southern/eastern Virginia southward, upper 60s to lower 70s
F dewpoints and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will
yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storm development. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited
midlevel height falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable
air mass will favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of
producing damaging wind gusts. 

Somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies will reside over the
Mid-Atlantic region, contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
amid moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several organized clusters capable of scattered damaging wind gusts,
and some locally higher concentrations of wind damage will be
possible with any longer-lived clusters that evolve.

...Southern High Plains...
Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail across
parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. Additional storms
are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central Texas to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer
shear should limit storm longevity/organization.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/14/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260614T1256.txt



698 
ACUS01 KWNS 140600
SWODY1
SPC AC 140558

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity during the afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong midlevel
west-southwesterly flow will move eastward from the Great
Lakes/upper OH Valley region into the Northeast through the period.
At the same time, a related cold front will advance eastward across
the OH Valley during the afternoon, before reaching the Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England coast during the overnight hours. 

...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, focused within a pre-frontal trough extending
from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the lee of the southern
Appalachians. From roughly southern/eastern VA southward, upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints and steepening boundary-layer lapse rates
will yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storms. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited midlevel height
falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable air mass will
favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of producing
damaging wind gusts. Over the Mid-Atlantic region, stronger midlevel
westerly flow will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective shear amid
moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several loosely organized clusters capable of scattered damaging
wind gusts. Here, 30-percent wind probabilities remain in place, and
while a locally higher concentration of wind damage will be possible
with any longer-lived clusters that may evolve, this will be largely
dependent on mesoscale factors.  

...Upper OH Valley into southern New England...
Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms will spread
eastward from the lower Great Lakes into the upper OH Valley and
southern New England during the afternoon into the evening hours.
Stronger midlevel height falls and around 40 kt of front-parallel
effective shear should favor a linear mode, with the primary concern
being strong-severe wind gusts.

...Southern High Plains...
Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail. Additional
storms are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central TX to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer shear
should limit storm longevity/organization here.

..Weinman/Halbert.. 06/14/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260614T0600.txt



683 
ACUS01 KWNS 140102
SWODY1
SPC AC 140101

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours
from parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri
and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a couple tornadoes are all possible.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley...
Along a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front moving southeastward
across central KS, an expansive band of upscale-growing convection
will continue tracking southeastward into the overnight hours. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist boundary layer is yielding a
corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with 40-50
kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the convective gust front,
and a gradually strengthening low-level jet (evident in VWP data),
will support a swath of severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) with the
MCS. The greatest concentration of severe wind gusts is expected
across southeast KS and adjacent portions of northeastern OK and
western MO -- where the ENH risk remains in place. Additionally, a
couple embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out, given the
strengthening low-level jet/shear and moist boundary layer. 

Farther south, one dominant right-moving supercell is ongoing along
a remnant outflow boundary in north-central OK. This storm will pose
the greatest risk of large hail and some tornado risk in the
near-term.

..Weinman.. 06/14/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260614T0102.txt



853 
ACUS01 KWNS 132003
SWODY1
SPC AC 132002

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from
parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and
Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...20z Update...
Only minor modifications were needed to the ongoing forecast based
on recent convective trends. The primary hazard continues to be
initially hail along the front with the onset of convection followed
by rapid upscale growth with an attendant severe wind threat across
eastern KS into adjacent portions of AR, MO, and OK.  Given the
prevalence of outflow boundaries intersecting the front per recent
surface observations, there will likely be one or more mesoscale
corridors of higher tornado potential as one or more MCSs develop,
however, confidence is limited in how productive these corridors
will be give the expectation of upscale growth.  For additional
short-term details see MCDs #1122, #1123, and #1124.

..Moore.. 06/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/

...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Several different areas are already convectively active this
morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing
segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther
south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where
elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air
advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the
bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours.
Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in
central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the
extent and strength of afternoon destabilization. 

General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to
persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing
the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer
shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more
mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few
stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the
strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers
and thunderstorms.

A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the
MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS.
Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme
southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far
northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest
KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA
southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest
NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution
today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the
western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.

Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding
the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development
near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense
development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western
periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most
likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before
transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues
southeastward. 

Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated
from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along
the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with
the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to
isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally,
this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the
development along the cold front begins to interact with the more
in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the
most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially
including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.

Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high
LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution
(i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear
mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete
storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any
more robust convective line that develops, particularly during
evening as the low-level jet increases.

...Lower MI...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could
support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower
MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this
afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and
damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.

...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will
result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective
development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260613T2003.txt