348 
ACUS48 KWNS 090849
SWOD48
SPC AC 090847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the
northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance
from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent
probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While
predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists
for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week.

The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z
Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper
Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE
Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear
combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight.

A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may
persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a
large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the
expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase
northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains
this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the
spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may
support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday.

..Grams.. 06/09/2025


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS48/20250609T0849.txt