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342
FXUS64 KOUN 291828
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
128 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot
conditions for the upcoming weekend.
- There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night into Friday with a front.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Another day of heat being the main story. Temperatures are expected
to climb into the triple digits this afternoon across much of the
fa. The exception may be parts of northern OK depending on how long
an outflow boundary and some cloud cover is able to influence the
area. Even hotter heat indices are expected this afternoon,
especially in far east or southeast parts of the fa where moisture
is the highest and heat index values of 110+ are possible. Will
continue with the current heat advisory and extreme heat warning for
this afternoon.
There have been some scattered sprinkles/light rain showers that
have moved across parts of northern OK this morning. Showers and
maybe a few storms will remain possible (15-20%) in northern OK
through the afternoon with the area expected to gradually shifting
into north central OK.
Another warm night tonight with lows in the mid/upper 70s.
Additional elevated showers may develop late tonight/early Thursday
in parts of southern KS into northern OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Another hot day Thursday with the upper high dominating the region.
High temperatures are expected to climb into the triple digits
across much of the area again tomorrow with 105+ heat indices. A few
locations could see heat indices of 110+ tomorrow afternoon. Have
issued a heat advisory for the entire area for Thursday afternoon
but later shifts may need to issue a extreme heat warning for a few
areas if it looks likely that the 110+ heat indices will occur.
Models show the center of the upper high shifting westward Thursday
night into Friday as a shortwave drops SE across the northern Plains
into the Midwest with NW flow developing over the area Friday. This
will cause a "cool" front to move into the area late Thursday night
into Friday (at least in terms of the wind shift). It looks like the
"cooler" air will lag a bit which means overall Friday will be
another hot day with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 in
northern OK to 103-106 F range in the Red River area. Heat indices
will also be high once again with a heat advisory and maybe an
extreme heat warning needed again on Friday. There is some
uncertainty on where but most likely area will be at least parts of
southern OK and western north TX.
In terms of rain, showers and thunderstorms will be possible late
Thursday night into Friday night with chances shifting southward
with the boundary. With the main synoptic forcing further N and NE,
chances are not high (mainly 20-30%) but at least there is a
chance.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Cooler/less hot weather arrives on Saturday with more appreciable
cold air advection in the wake of the cold front. However, the
strongest cold air advection will remain to our northeast across
the Great Lakes and Midwest. As a result, the most significant
cool down will be across north central Oklahoma. High temperatures
are forecast to range from the near 90 deg F (north central
Oklahoma) to near 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas). In other words, this cold front will bring us closer to
normal for early August.
Near normal temperatures will continue into Sunday before a slow
warming trend begins on Monday with a strengthening ridge aloft
and attendant thermal ridge expanding eastward--back toward the
Southern Plains.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light rain
showers will continue to move across northern Oklahoma this
morning into the afternoon, potentially affecting KPNC. Otherwise,
light winds will gradually shift to the southeast by the
afternoon, then to the south-southwest by tomorrow morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 77 101 77 100 / 10 20 20 40
Hobart OK 77 104 77 103 / 0 10 10 30
Wichita Falls TX 77 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 10
Gage OK 75 103 73 99 / 10 10 30 10
Ponca City OK 75 98 75 98 / 20 20 30 20
Durant OK 78 101 79 103 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>019-021>025-
027>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>048-
050>052.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ020-026-
032-043-048-052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260729T1828.txt
054
FXUS64 KOUN 291549
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot
conditions for the upcoming weekend.
- There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night into Friday with a cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Gravity waves and outflow from the remnants of showers and
thunderstorms across Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle are moving
eastward across the Oklahoma panhandle early this morning. As
these gravity waves approach northwest Oklahoma, isolated showers
and thunderstorms may develop this morning. There is even the
potential if these waves continue moving eastward, isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop in north central Oklahoma
later today. Any convection is not expected to be intense with no
severe weather expected.
Otherwise, the heatwave continues with a ~595 dam mid-level ridge
centered in New Mexico continuing to be the primary influence on
the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas. High temperatures
this afternoon will once again will be in the 100s deg F with heat
indices between 105 and 113 deg F. The highest heat indices will
be across portions of north central, east central, and southeast
Oklahoma due to higher moisture. This area was upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning for today.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
The heatwave will continue Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with
the Southern Plains continuing to be influenced by the ridge
aloft and the associated low-level thermal ridge. Heat Advisories
will be needed both afternoons with no appreciable change in air
mass.
The synoptic-scale pattern will begin to change Thursday night
into Friday as a shortwave trough amplifies and digs southeastward
on the northeast periphery of the ridge. In response, the ridge
will retrograde to the west. This will allow a cold front to
advance southward into the Southern Plains.
The cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday morning.
However, the cold air will lag behind the wind shift--so Friday
will be another hot day. Depending on the timing of the wind
shift/cold front, some locations will likely be very hot ahead of
the cold front with veered, southwest to westerly low-level flow.
This is is most likely across southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas, where heat indices could exceed 110 deg F (the air
temperatures in some locations could even be near 110 deg F).
Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed Friday afternoon.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold
front. However, with strongest synoptic-scale forcing remaining
to the northeast, the chance is only 20 to 30%.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Cooler/less hot weather arrives on Saturday with more appreciable
cold air advection in the wake of the cold front. However, the
strongest cold air advection will remain to our northeast across
the Great Lakes and Midwest. As a result, the most significant
cool down will be across north central Oklahoma. High temperatures
are forecast to range from the near 90 deg F (north central
Oklahoma) to near 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas). In other words, this cold front will bring us closer to
normal for early August.
Near normal temperatures will continue into Sunday before a slow
warming trend begins on Monday with a strengthening ridge aloft
and attendant thermal ridge expanding eastward--back toward the
Southern Plains.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light rain
showers will continue to move across northern Oklahoma this
morning into the afternoon, potentially affecting KPNC. Otherwise,
light winds will gradually shift to the southeast by the
afternoon, then to the south-southwest by tomorrow morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 102 78 102 / 10 10 10 20
Hobart OK 78 105 79 105 / 0 10 10 20
Wichita Falls TX 79 104 79 106 / 0 0 0 10
Gage OK 76 105 76 101 / 10 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 76 99 77 100 / 20 30 20 10
Durant OK 79 101 79 104 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>019-021>025-
027>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ020-026-
032-043-048-052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260729T1549.txt
367
FXUS64 KOUN 291110
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot
conditions for the upcoming weekend.
- There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night into Friday with a cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Gravity waves and outflow from the remnants of showers and
thunderstorms across Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle are moving
eastward across the Oklahoma panhandle early this morning. As
these gravity waves approach northwest Oklahoma, isolated showers
and thunderstorms may develop this morning. There is even the
potential if these waves continue moving eastward, isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop in north central Oklahoma
later today. Any convection is not expected to be intense with no
severe weather expected.
Otherwise, the heatwave continues with a ~595 dam mid-level ridge
centered in New Mexico continuing to be the primary influence on
the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas. High temperatures
this afternoon will once again will be in the 100s deg F with heat
indices between 105 and 113 deg F. The highest heat indices will
be across portions of north central, east central, and southeast
Oklahoma due to higher moisture. This area was upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning for today.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
The heatwave will continue Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with
the Southern Plains continuing to be influenced by the ridge
aloft and the associated low-level thermal ridge. Heat Advisories
will be needed both afternoons with no appreciable change in air
mass.
The synoptic-scale pattern will begin to change Thursday night
into Friday as a shortwave trough amplifies and digs southeastward
on the northeast periphery of the ridge. In response, the ridge
will retrograde to the west. This will allow a cold front to
advance southward into the Southern Plains.
The cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday morning.
However, the cold air will lag behind the wind shift--so Friday
will be another hot day. Depending on the timing of the wind
shift/cold front, some locations will likely be very hot ahead of
the cold front with veered, southwest to westerly low-level flow.
This is is most likely across southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas, where heat indices could exceed 110 deg F (the air
temperatures in some locations could even be near 110 deg F).
Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed Friday afternoon.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold
front. However, with strongest synoptic-scale forcing remaining
to the northeast, the chance is only 20 to 30%.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Cooler/less hot weather arrives on Saturday with more appreciable
cold air advection in the wake of the cold front. However, the
strongest cold air advection will remain to our northeast across
the Great Lakes and Midwest. As a result, the most significant
cool down will be across north central Oklahoma. High temperatures
are forecast to range from the near 90 deg F (north central
Oklahoma) to near 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas). In other words, this cold front will bring us closer to
normal for early August.
Near normal temperatures will continue into Sunday before a slow
warming trend begins on Monday with a strengthening ridge aloft
and attendant thermal ridge expanding eastward--back toward the
Southern Plains.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
VFR category is forecast areawide during the upcoming period. A
modest southwest-to-southeast breeze and widespread mid/high
clouds will continue.
There remains low (<30%) potential for rain/thunder across
northern Oklahoma today, and have added a period of PROB30 mention
at KPNC this afternoon into evening.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 102 78 102 78 / 0 10 10 10
Hobart OK 104 78 105 79 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 104 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 103 76 105 76 / 10 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 99 76 99 77 / 10 20 30 20
Durant OK 101 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for OKZ004>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for OKZ020-026-032-043-048-052.
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260729T1110.txt
096
FXUS64 KOUN 290800
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
300 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot
conditions for the upcoming weekend.
- There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night into Friday with a cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Gravity waves and outflow from the remnants of showers and
thunderstorms across Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle are moving
eastward across the Oklahoma panhandle early this morning. As
these gravity waves approach northwest Oklahoma, isolated showers
and thunderstorms may develop this morning. There is even the
potential if these waves continue moving eastward, isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop in north central Oklahoma
later today. Any convection is not expected to be intense with no
severe weather expected.
Otherwise, the heatwave continues with a ~595 dam mid-level ridge
centered in New Mexico continuing to be the primary influence on
the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas. High temperatures
this afternoon will once again will be in the 100s deg F with heat
indices between 105 and 113 deg F. The highest heat indices will
be across portions of north central, east central, and southeast
Oklahoma due to higher moisture. This area was upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning for today.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
The heatwave will continue Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with
the Southern Plains continuing to be influenced by the ridge
aloft and the associated low-level thermal ridge. Heat Advisories
will be needed both afternoons with no appreciable change in air
mass.
The synoptic-scale pattern will begin to change Thursday night
into Friday as a shortwave trough amplifies and digs southeastward
on the northeast periphery of the ridge. In response, the ridge
will retrograde to the west. This will allow a cold front to
advance southward into the Southern Plains.
The cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday morning.
However, the cold air will lag behind the wind shift--so Friday
will be another hot day. Depending on the timing of the wind
shift/cold front, some locations will likely be very hot ahead of
the cold front with veered, southwest to westerly low-level flow.
This is is most likely across southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas, where heat indices could exceed 110 deg F (the air
temperatures in some locations could even be near 110 deg F).
Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed Friday afternoon.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold
front. However, with strongest synoptic-scale forcing remaining
to the northeast, the chance is only 20 to 30%.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Cooler/less hot weather arrives on Saturday with more appreciable
cold air advection in the wake of the cold front. However, the
strongest cold air advection will remain to our northeast across
the Great Lakes and Midwest. As a result, the most significant
cool down will be across north central Oklahoma. High temperatures
are forecast to range from the near 90 deg F (north central
Oklahoma) to near 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas). In other words, this cold front will bring us closer to
normal for early August.
Near normal temperatures will continue into Sunday before a slow
warming trend begins on Monday with a strengthening ridge aloft
and attendant thermal ridge expanding eastward--back toward the
Southern Plains.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
VFR conditions to continue.
Light southeast winds will shift to the southwest Wednesday
morning and then shift back to the southeast tomorrow morning.
Will continue to be abundant middle and high clouds with some
high-based afternoon cu. There is an outside chance of a shower or
thunderstorm late tonight and again Wednesday afternoon, but
chances are too low to include any mention in the TAFs at this
time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 102 78 102 78 / 0 10 10 10
Hobart OK 104 78 105 79 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 104 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 103 76 105 76 / 10 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 99 76 99 77 / 10 20 30 20
Durant OK 101 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for OKZ004>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for OKZ020-026-032-043-048-052.
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260729T0800.txt
149
FXUS64 KOUN 290349
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
- Cold front arrives end of the week and brings some relief over
the weekend.
- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms (northern Oklahoma)
starting tonight.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The increase today in high clouds today is associated with a
shortwave trough passing over Kansas and along the northwest
periphery of the ridge. This is leading to slightly less hot
temperatures today, particularly over northern Oklahoma. Still, we
expect heat advisory criteria to be met area-wide this afternoon.
The surface trough axis over Kansas is forecast to evolve into a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary tonight and push into parts of
north-central Oklahoma as the shortwave drops southward. The
frontal boundary will be most evident by the increased dewpoint
temperatures behind the boundary.
A complex of decaying thunderstorms (and associated outflow boundary)
is expected to descend from Colorado and approach northwest late Oklahoma
tonight early Wednesday morning. There is a very low chance (10%)
of light showers/sprinkles tomorrow morning over northwest
Oklahoma from this activity. Farther east and closer to the
stationary boundary, we could see low clouds develop over northern
and central Oklahoma tonight as moisture pools ahead of the
boundary. Additionally, there is a very low chance of light
showers early Wednesday morning for the northern half of Oklahoma
as WAA increases atop this boundary.
Thompson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The outflow boundary is prog'd to arrive in northwest Oklahoma on
Wednesday morning and effectively pushes the weak surface low, that
has lingered over the Oklahoma panhandle, eastward. While the outflow
boundary will largely mix out as winds return to the south by afternoon.
However, some elevated baroclinicity along this zone in northwest Oklahoma
could be the focal area for shower/storm attempts on Wednesday afternoon
as another shortwave descends from the high plains. Mainly virga (along
with gusty winds) and some sprinkles appear to be the most likely outcome,
though. Otherwise, high temperatures will be less hot on Wednesday and
range from the upper- 90's (Kay County) to near the century mark (central)
to near 105 (north- central to southwest OK).
As low-level WAA intensifies on Wednesday night, there is a chance of
scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas north of I-40. Additional
mid-/high-level clouds will continue to propagate into our area
from Kansas on Thursday. Despite this, hot conditions continue
with widespread high temperatures of 100 to 105 on Thursday.
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate a pattern change is
likely by the upcoming weekend as a shortwave trough amplifies and
digs southeastward on the northeast periphery of the ridge. The
ridge will retrograde to the west, which will bring in stronger
northerly flow aloft into the Southern Plains.
An initial cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday
morning. However, the cold air advection with the initial wind
shift will likely be limited/negligible. There will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the front with the highest chance
across north central Oklahoma. Highs Friday afternoon will likely
still reach the 100s deg F across most locations (unless
shower/storm coverage is more widespread.
A stronger, reinforcing cold front will advance southward in tandem
with the shortwave trough late Friday into Saturday, bringing
cooler/less hot weather into the area. Even with a stronger front,
the most appreciable cold air advection will remain to our
northeast. As a result, the most significant cool down will be
across north central Oklahoma. Across southwest Oklahoma into
western north Texas, the cool down will be more limited. With
synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast, rain chances are
very low/near zero.
High temperatures Saturday afternoon are forecast to range from the
low 90s (north central Oklahoma) to around 100 deg F (southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas). This relative cool down will continue
into Sunday before warmer weather returns on Monday.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
VFR conditions to continue.
Light southeast winds will shift to the southwest Wednesday
morning and then shift back to the southeast tomorrow morning.
Will continue to be abundant middle and high clouds with some
high-based afternoon cu. There is an outside chance of a shower or
thunderstorm late tonight and again Wednesday afternoon, but
chances are too low to include any mention in the TAFs at this
time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 101 78 101 / 0 10 10 0
Hobart OK 77 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 77 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 75 102 75 104 / 10 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 78 99 77 99 / 10 20 20 10
Durant OK 78 101 78 101 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ005>008-
011>013-017>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260729T0349.txt
166
FXUS64 KOUN 282313
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
613 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
- Cold front arrives end of the week and brings some relief over
the weekend.
- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms (northern Oklahoma)
starting tonight.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The increase today in high clouds today is associated with a
shortwave trough passing over Kansas and along the northwest
periphery of the ridge. This is leading to slightly less hot
temperatures today, particularly over northern Oklahoma. Still, we
expect heat advisory criteria to be met area-wide this afternoon.
The surface trough axis over Kansas is forecast to evolve into a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary tonight and push into parts of
north-central Oklahoma as the shortwave drops southward. The
frontal boundary will be most evident by the increased dewpoint
temperatures behind the boundary.
A complex of decaying thunderstorms (and associated outflow boundary)
is expected to descend from Colorado and approach northwest late Oklahoma
tonight early Wednesday morning. There is a very low chance (10%)
of light showers/sprinkles tomorrow morning over northwest
Oklahoma from this activity. Farther east and closer to the
stationary boundary, we could see low clouds develop over northern
and central Oklahoma tonight as moisture pools ahead of the
boundary. Additionally, there is a very low chance of light
showers early Wednesday morning for the northern half of Oklahoma
as WAA increases atop this boundary.
Thompson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The outflow boundary is prog'd to arrive in northwest Oklahoma on
Wednesday morning and effectively pushes the weak surface low, that
has lingered over the Oklahoma panhandle, eastward. While the outflow
boundary will largely mix out as winds return to the south by afternoon.
However, some elevated baroclinicity along this zone in northwest Oklahoma
could be the focal area for shower/storm attempts on Wednesday afternoon
as another shortwave descends from the high plains. Mainly virga (along
with gusty winds) and some sprinkles appear to be the most likely outcome,
though. Otherwise, high temperatures will be less hot on Wednesday and
range from the upper- 90's (Kay County) to near the century mark (central)
to near 105 (north- central to southwest OK).
As low-level WAA intensifies on Wednesday night, there is a chance of
scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas north of I-40. Additional
mid-/high-level clouds will continue to propagate into our area
from Kansas on Thursday. Despite this, hot conditions continue
with widespread high temperatures of 100 to 105 on Thursday.
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate a pattern change is
likely by the upcoming weekend as a shortwave trough amplifies and
digs southeastward on the northeast periphery of the ridge. The
ridge will retrograde to the west, which will bring in stronger
northerly flow aloft into the Southern Plains.
An initial cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday
morning. However, the cold air advection with the initial wind
shift will likely be limited/negligible. There will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the front with the highest chance
across north central Oklahoma. Highs Friday afternoon will likely
still reach the 100s deg F across most locations (unless
shower/storm coverage is more widespread.
A stronger, reinforcing cold front will advance southward in tandem
with the shortwave trough late Friday into Saturday, bringing
cooler/less hot weather into the area. Even with a stronger front,
the most appreciable cold air advection will remain to our
northeast. As a result, the most significant cool down will be
across north central Oklahoma. Across southwest Oklahoma into
western north Texas, the cool down will be more limited. With
synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast, rain chances are
very low/near zero.
High temperatures Saturday afternoon are forecast to range from the
low 90s (north central Oklahoma) to around 100 deg F (southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas). This relative cool down will continue
into Sunday before warmer weather returns on Monday.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
VFR conditions to continue.
Light southeast winds expected overnight with areas of mid/high
clouds. Winds will shift to the southwest late tonight into
Wednesday morning before shifting back to the south and southeast
tomorrow afternoon. Middle and high clouds will continue across
the area through the day Wednesday with some high-based afternoon
cu across the eastern half of the state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 101 78 101 / 0 10 10 0
Hobart OK 77 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 77 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 75 102 75 104 / 10 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 78 99 77 99 / 10 20 20 10
Durant OK 78 101 78 101 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ005>008-
011>013-017>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260728T2313.txt
