Home
392
FXUS64 KOUN 301131
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
- A widespread round of rain is expected Thursday into Friday, but
could be limited to locations south of I-40.
- Severe storms look unlikely over the next week.
- Cool temperatures are expected through Saturday, then warming.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
There are two areas of potential precipitation today. The first is
in the northwest as precipitation has developed in the Colorado
High Plains and mountains with easterly upslope low-level flow
and a weak shortwave in the zonal flow aloft. Some of these
showers are drifting into western Kansas and could move into
northwest Oklahoma, but the precipitation is primarily expected to
be farther to the northwest.
The second area is to the south. Some isentropic lift is
developing across southwest Texas where 850 mb (~300K isentropic
surface) winds are becoming southerly and spreading slightly
higher moisture north above the frontal surface. However there
will be a northward extent of how far north this precipitation
area spreads today, and while the northern edge of this
precipitation is likely to reach at least our north Texas
counties, it is not guaranteed if it will, or how widespread the
precipitation will be at the northern edge. NBM POPs seemed a bit
too bullish with how far north the precipitation spreads today
given the trends in the operational models, so in coordinating
with adjacent offices to the west, we have lowered POPs from the
NBM initializations today.
Despite the showers and the potential for thunderstorms,
instability has been pushed well to the south and no severe
weather is expected.
With the post-frontal airmass over the area and widespread
cloudiness, it will be a cool afternoon today across the area with
high temperatures generally 5 to 15 degrees below average.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
The next round of showers and thunderstorms develops Thursday
night into Friday as a upper level storm system currently off the
Baja California coast moves across northern Mexico and into Texas.
There is consistency in the models about this system taking a
southern track through Texas with much of the lift associated with
this approaching system remaining to the south. So again there
will be a south-north gradient in precipitation chances with
precipitation likely south of the Red River and decreasing chances
farther north on Thursday night and Friday. Instability will still
be limited and no severe weather is forecast. Precipitation will
be ending late Friday as this storm system and associated lift
push east of the forecast area.
Again the post-frontal airmass, widespread clouds and areas of
rain (at least in the south) will keep temperatures quite cool,
especially in the south. The high at Wichita Falls is only
expected to get to around 61 on Friday and the record coolest
high temperature for Wichita Falls for May 1 is 57.
Skies clear Friday night with the departure of the storm system,
and somewhat warmer temperatures are expected Saturday, although
still below average for early May.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
South to southwesterly low-level flow redevelops on Sunday and
warmer temperatures are expected each day Sunday through Tuesday.
A few waves in the northern stream aloft will create a low
potential of showers or storms in the north Monday and Tuesday,
but the highest chances of precipitation will be farther north.
Current models suggest that a cold front may push into the area
late Tuesday in the wake of one of these northern stream waves. We
will watch the trend over the next few days for that.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Clouds will increase from the southwest through the day, with low
chances for showers across western north TX this morning into the
afternoon. These areas could see periods of MVFR, otherwise
expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the rest of the
area. Additional rain chances will move into western north TX late
tonight and increase Friday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 67 50 67 45 / 20 10 10 0
Hobart OK 64 49 65 43 / 30 20 40 0
Wichita Falls TX 66 53 62 45 / 50 40 60 10
Gage OK 64 41 64 39 / 30 30 30 10
Ponca City OK 66 45 68 43 / 10 10 0 0
Durant OK 68 53 65 47 / 40 30 40 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260430T1131.txt
795
FXUS64 KOUN 300730
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
- A widespread round of rain is expected Thursday into Friday, but
could be limited to locations south of I-40.
- Severe storms look unlikely over the next week.
- Cool temperatures are expected through Saturday, then warming.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
There are two areas of potential precipitation today. The first is
in the northwest as precipitation has developed in the Colorado
High Plains and mountains with easterly upslope low-level flow
and a weak shortwave in the zonal flow aloft. Some of these
showers are drifting into western Kansas and could move into
northwest Oklahoma, but the precipitation is primarily expected to
be farther to the northwest.
The second area is to the south. Some isentropic lift is
developing across southwest Texas where 850 mb (~300K isentropic
surface) winds are becoming southerly and spreading slightly
higher moisture north above the frontal surface. However there
will be a northward extent of how far north this precipitation
area spreads today, and while the northern edge of this
precipitation is likely to reach at least our north Texas
counties, it is not guaranteed if it will, or how widespread the
precipitation will be at the northern edge. NBM POPs seemed a bit
too bullish with how far north the precipitation spreads today
given the trends in the operational models, so in coordinating
with adjacent offices to the west, we have lowered POPs from the
NBM initializations today.
Despite the showers and the potential for thunderstorms,
instability has been pushed well to the south and no severe
weather is expected.
With the post-frontal airmass over the area and widespread
cloudiness, it will be a cool afternoon today across the area with
high temperatures generally 5 to 15 degrees below average.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
The next round of showers and thunderstorms develops Thursday
night into Friday as a upper level storm system currently off the
Baja California coast moves across northern Mexico and into Texas.
There is consistency in the models about this system taking a
southern track through Texas with much of the lift associated with
this approaching system remaining to the south. So again there
will be a south-north gradient in precipitation chances with
precipitation likely south of the Red River and decreasing chances
farther north on Thursday night and Friday. Instability will still
be limited and no severe weather is forecast. Precipitation will
be ending late Friday as this storm system and associated lift
push east of the forecast area.
Again the post-frontal airmass, widespread clouds and areas of
rain (at least in the south) will keep temperatures quite cool,
especially in the south. The high at Wichita Falls is only
expected to get to around 61 on Friday and the record coolest
high temperature for Wichita Falls for May 1 is 57.
Skies clear Friday night with the departure of the storm system,
and somewhat warmer temperatures are expected Saturday, although
still below average for early May.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
South to southwesterly low-level flow redevelops on Sunday and
warmer temperatures are expected each day Sunday through Tuesday.
A few waves in the northern stream aloft will create a low
potential of showers or storms in the north Monday and Tuesday,
but the highest chances of precipitation will be farther north.
Current models suggest that a cold front may push into the area
late Tuesday in the wake of one of these northern stream waves. We
will watch the trend over the next few days for that.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the period.
Rain chances increase from southwest to northeast tomorrow, but
overall likelihood of affecting specific TAF sites is low at this
time. Winds will remain out of the east through tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 67 50 67 45 / 20 10 10 0
Hobart OK 64 49 65 43 / 30 20 40 0
Wichita Falls TX 66 53 62 45 / 50 40 60 10
Gage OK 64 41 64 39 / 30 30 30 10
Ponca City OK 66 45 68 43 / 10 10 0 0
Durant OK 68 53 65 47 / 40 30 40 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260430T0730.txt
676
FXUS64 KOUN 300341
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1041 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- A widespread round of rain is expected Thursday into Friday, but
could be limited to locations south of I-40.
- Severe storms look unlikely over the next week.
- Cool temperatures are expected through Saturday, then warming.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A cooler, breezy afternoon expected with highs in the mid/upper 60s
and low 70s. These temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
late April. The cold front that moved across the area yesterday
continues to push south across central TX leaving a cooler airmass
in place over the fa.
Wind speeds are expected to decrease this evening but the cloud
cover (mostly cloudy/cloudy skies) will stick around tonight.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s to low/mid 50s
overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Zonal upper level flow will continue across the area Thursday but
models show an upper low opening up into a shortwave as it moves
across Baja California. This shortwave is expected to continue to
move east moving across the southern Plains on Friday. Isentropic
lift ahead of the wave will bring a chance for showers/storms to
parts of the fa Thursday. There is a question on how far north the
showers/storms will occur with the last few model runs confining
the showers/storms further south. The shower/storm chances will
continue into Friday as the shortwave moves across the region. The
highest chances with this wave are still expected to be in
southern parts of the fa closer to the shortwave.
The cold front that moved across the area yesterday has pushed the
moist, unstable airmass well south of the area. This airmass is
expected to remain south of the area over the next few days so
severe weather is not expected Thursday and Friday.
Due to the cooler airmass that moved into the area behind the front
along with clouds and rain, the cooler temperatures are expected to
continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 50s and 60s
across the area. These temperatures will be 10 to maybe as much as
20 degrees below average for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The storm system moves east of the forecast area Friday
night/Saturday with upper ridging developing in the western United
States bringing a northwesterly flow aloft to the area this
weekend. Saturday is expected to be cool again, but then
southwesterly low-level flow redevelops by Sunday and temperatures
begin to warm again. This weather pattern is a generally dry
pattern with no precipitation chances through at least Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the period.
Rain chances increase from southwest to northeast tomorrow, but
overall likelihood of affecting specific TAF sites is low at this
time. Winds will remain out of the east through tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 69 47 66 49 / 0 0 20 10
Hobart OK 72 47 65 49 / 0 10 50 30
Wichita Falls TX 70 53 66 52 / 0 10 50 40
Gage OK 70 41 63 42 / 0 20 30 30
Ponca City OK 67 45 66 46 / 0 0 10 0
Durant OK 69 55 67 52 / 20 10 40 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260430T0341.txt
518
FXUS64 KOUN 292255
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- A widespread round of rain is expected Thursday into Friday, but
could be limited to locations south of I-40.
- Severe storms look unlikely over the next week.
- Cool temperatures are expected through Saturday, then warming.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A cooler, breezy afternoon expected with highs in the mid/upper 60s
and low 70s. These temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
late April. The cold front that moved across the area yesterday
continues to push south across central TX leaving a cooler airmass
in place over the fa.
Wind speeds are expected to decrease this evening but the cloud
cover (mostly cloudy/cloudy skies) will stick around tonight.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s to low/mid 50s
overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Zonal upper level flow will continue across the area Thursday but
models show an upper low opening up into a shortwave as it moves
across Baja California. This shortwave is expected to continue to
move east moving across the southern Plains on Friday. Isentropic
lift ahead of the wave will bring a chance for showers/storms to
parts of the fa Thursday. There is a question on how far north the
showers/storms will occur with the last few model runs confining
the showers/storms further south. The shower/storm chances will
continue into Friday as the shortwave moves across the region. The
highest chances with this wave are still expected to be in
southern parts of the fa closer to the shortwave.
The cold front that moved across the area yesterday has pushed the
moist, unstable airmass well south of the area. This airmass is
expected to remain south of the area over the next few days so
severe weather is not expected Thursday and Friday.
Due to the cooler airmass that moved into the area behind the front
along with clouds and rain, the cooler temperatures are expected to
continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 50s and 60s
across the area. These temperatures will be 10 to maybe as much as
20 degrees below average for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The storm system moves east of the forecast area Friday
night/Saturday with upper ridging developing in the western United
States bringing a northwesterly flow aloft to the area this
weekend. Saturday is expected to be cool again, but then
southwesterly low-level flow redevelops by Sunday and temperatures
begin to warm again. This weather pattern is a generally dry
pattern with no precipitation chances through at least Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
VFR conditions are expected at each terminal through the period.
Rain chances increase from southwest to northeast tomorrow, but
overall likelihood of affecting specific TAF sites is low at this
time. Winds will remain out of the east through tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 47 66 49 65 / 0 20 10 20
Hobart OK 47 65 49 63 / 10 50 30 50
Wichita Falls TX 53 66 52 61 / 10 50 40 70
Gage OK 41 63 42 65 / 20 30 30 30
Ponca City OK 45 66 46 67 / 0 10 0 0
Durant OK 55 67 52 62 / 10 40 30 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260429T2255.txt
180
FXUS64 KOUN 291855
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
155 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- A widespread round of rain is expected Thursday into Friday, but
could be limited to locations south of I-40.
- Severe storms look unlikely over the next week.
- Cool temperatures are expected through Saturday, then warming.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A cooler, breezy afternoon expected with highs in the mid/upper 60s
and low 70s. These temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
late April. The cold front that moved across the area yesterday
continues to push south across central TX leaving a cooler airmass
in place over the fa.
Wind speeds are expected to decrease this evening but the cloud
cover (mostly cloudy/cloudy skies) will stick around tonight.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s to low/mid 50s
overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Zonal upper level flow will continue across the area Thursday but
models show an upper low opening up into a shortwave as it moves
across Baja California. This shortwave is expected to continue to
move east moving across the southern Plains on Friday. Isentropic
lift ahead of the wave will bring a chance for showers/storms to
parts of the fa Thursday. There is a question on how far north the
showers/storms will occur with the last few model runs confining
the showers/storms further south. The shower/storm chances will
continue into Friday as the shortwave moves across the region. The
highest chances with this wave are still expected to be in
southern parts of the fa closer to the shortwave.
The cold front that moved across the area yesterday has pushed the
moist, unstable airmass well south of the area. This airmass is
expected to remain south of the area over the next few days so
severe weather is not expected Thursday and Friday.
Due to the cooler airmass that moved into the area behind the front
along with clouds and rain, the cooler temperatures are expected to
continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 50s and 60s
across the area. These temperatures will be 10 to maybe as much as
20 degrees below average for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The storm system moves east of the forecast area Friday
night/Saturday with upper ridging developing in the western United
States bringing a northwesterly flow aloft to the area this
weekend. Saturday is expected to be cool again, but then
southwesterly low-level flow redevelops by Sunday and temperatures
begin to warm again. This weather pattern is a generally dry
pattern with no precipitation chances through at least Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
VFR/low VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. MVFR ceilings will
spread across portions of the area tonight into Thursday morning.
Winds will gradually shift to the NE and E this TAF period with
speeds decreasing this evening. Showers/storms will become
possible starting early Thursday in portions of the fa with the
highest chances at KCSM/KLAW/KSPS TAF sites Thursday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 47 66 49 65 / 0 20 10 20
Hobart OK 47 65 49 63 / 10 50 30 50
Wichita Falls TX 53 66 52 61 / 10 50 40 70
Gage OK 41 63 42 65 / 20 30 30 30
Ponca City OK 45 66 46 67 / 0 10 0 0
Durant OK 55 67 52 62 / 10 40 30 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260429T1855.txt
587
FXUS64 KOUN 291723
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- A widespread round of rain is expected Thursday into Friday, but
could be limited to locations near and south of I-40.
- Severe storms look unlikely over the next week.
- Cool temperatures are expected through Saturday, then warming.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
For the first time in a week, we do not have a risk of severe
storms somewhere over the forecast area today. The cold front has
pushed south into central Texas and has pushed any instability
away from the area. A surface ridge is our main weather story
today as a 1023 mb high shifts from Nebraska into northern Kansas
this morning. High temperatures today will generally be 5 to 10
degrees below average for the date. Zonal flow aloft continues to
push enough upper- level moisture over the area for areas of
cirrus today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A upper-level storm system over the Pacific around 30N/130W is
projected to open up as it approaches the Baja California coast
on Thursday and then continue to move east toward the southern
Plains Friday. Ahead of this system, some isentropic lift will
develop across Texas and will potentially reach into southern
Oklahoma on Thursday, although the models are generally seeming to
back off on how far north or how widespread this convection will
be into our forecast area. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
persist into Friday as the upper-level storm system moves through
the southern Plains, although again there is a question on how far
north the convection will spread with the primary lift with this
storm system primarily to the south in Texas. Farther northwest,
easterly upslope low-level flow will aid in shower development
across the New Mexico and west Texas High Plains, but it is
unclear how much of that convection will move into western
Oklahoma.
Despite high precipitation chances (primarily south), the front
that moved through yesterday has displaced instability to the
south, so severe weather is unlikely Thursday/Friday.
Clouds and precipitation associated with the approaching storm
system and the continued cool post-frontal airmass will keep
temperatures cool through the remainder of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The storm system moves east of the forecast area Friday
night/Saturday with upper ridging developing in the western United
States bringing a northwesterly flow aloft to the area this
weekend. Saturday is expected to be cool again, but then
southwesterly low-level flow redevelops by Sunday and temperatures
begin to warm again. This weather pattern is a generally dry
pattern with no precipitation chances through at least Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
VFR/low VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. MVFR ceilings will
spread across portions of the area tonight into Thursday morning.
Winds will gradually shift to the NE and E this TAF period with
speeds decreasing this evening. Showers/storms will become
possible starting early Thursday in portions of the fa with the
highest chances at KCSM/KLAW/KSPS TAF sites Thursday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 69 50 65 50 / 10 10 30 30
Hobart OK 72 49 63 48 / 0 10 60 60
Wichita Falls TX 71 54 65 51 / 10 20 60 60
Gage OK 70 42 62 43 / 0 30 60 50
Ponca City OK 68 46 67 47 / 0 0 20 10
Durant OK 70 57 65 52 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260429T1723.txt
