Home
947
FXUS64 KOUN 300650
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
- Below-zero wind chills likely Friday night into Saturday morning
across much of Oklahoma.
- Light snow/flurries possible Friday evening across
northwest/western OK, no accumulation expected.
- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal for much of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
Some light snow will be possible late this afternoon as an upper
trough moves south/southeast from the western Great Lakes toward
the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Radar does show some
relatively light echoes in the Dakotas and Nebraska early this
morning in association with the jet streak shifting around the
west edge of the trough, and this will move toward the area this
evening. Initially the surface temperatures across northwest
Oklahoma may allow any precipitation to start off as
rain/sprinkles, but temperatures are currently expected to remain
below freezing across north central Oklahoma so primary
precipitation type would be light snow. Any precipitation amounts
will be light and the models in general show very little (if any)
QPF, so no significant impacts are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
The main weather issue tonight into Saturday will be colder
weather as a reinforcing shot of cold air today with a mid 1040mb
surface ridge moving over the area by sunrise Saturday morning.
Lows will be near or below zero in north central Oklahoma to the
mid teens in north Texas. Minimum wind chill values will be below
zero through much of Oklahoma approaching negative double digits
in north central Oklahoma. The Cold Weather Advisory still looks
valid.
The potential for flurries/light snow discussed in the near term
will continue into the evening and overnight hours. Right now, the
models show the humidity to be sufficient in the dendritic growth
zone in the areas of precipitation that it should be snow. Some
of the models show this axis of sufficient moisture to be rather
narrow however. Will keep an eye on the trends to make sure we
don't get a sneaky transition to freezing drizzle, although right
now that looks like a low-enough probability event that we will
keep precipitation as snow and just monitor for the potential.
Saturday will be the coldest day of the forecast period with the
strong surface high over the area. Southwest/downslope low-level
flow will warm temperatures for Sunday as the surface ridge shifts
to the south.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
The next potential for precipitation will be Tuesday/Tuesday night
as a trough approaches in the northwest flow aloft. However the
low-level moisture will be a late arrival and the models in
general have backed off on how widespread the perception will be.
Current NBM confines 20% or higher POPs to areas east of roughly
a Shawnee to Madill line which seems reasonable at the moment
looking at the dynamic ensemble-based scenarios. Of course some
individual runs like the operational ECMWF keep some potential
farther west into central Oklahoma, and we will still have a few
days to better judge the timing and strength of the system, but
the smaller precipitation footprint looks reasonable overall right
now.
Overall the forecast for the next work week is for near or above
normal temperatures. Fortunately at this time, we do not see a
day with an overlap of low humidity and strong winds to raise fire
weather concerns over into the middle part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
North winds will prevail through the period with a low chance for
patchy fog across western north Texas and far southwest Oklahoma
tonight. Confidence was too low for any fog development at SPS
tonight, so have opted to leave it out of this TAF issuance.
Amendments will be made with the changing trends. Low MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected to move in from the north across much of northern
into central Oklahoma through the evening hours tomorrow. There is
a low chance for light snow and/or flurries, with the greatest
chances for light snow across northwest Oklahoma with a PROB30 in
at WWR from 00-06z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 37 8 24 16 / 0 10 0 0
Hobart OK 45 8 29 15 / 0 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 45 14 30 18 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 49 8 34 19 / 0 20 0 0
Ponca City OK 32 0 21 12 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 43 11 30 17 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST
Saturday for OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST
Saturday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...23
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260130T0650.txt
955
FXUS64 KOUN 300413
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1013 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 946 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
- Below-zero wind chills likely Friday night into Saturday morning
across much of Oklahoma.
- Light snow/flurries possible Friday evening across
northwest/western OK, no accumulation expected.
- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal for much of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
A cold front will continue to progress across the area through the
remainder of the afternoon, bringing a northerly wind shift and
keeping temperatures cooler across central and northern Oklahoma
where highs in the 30s are expected, with 40s elsewhere. Mainly
clear skies are expected tonight, allowing temperatures to drop
into the teens for much of the area. Although it didn't end up
materializing this morning, will once again need to watch for the
potential for freezing fog Friday morning, especially across
northern and western Oklahoma where winds are forecast to be the
weakest. For now any fog appears it would be patchy and overall a
low probability scenario.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Below normal temperatures will continue for much of the area on
Friday as northerly winds persist and scattered clouds prevent full
insolation. A secondary surge of colder air is expected to move in
Friday night as a lobe of shortwave energy dives southward across
the upper Midwest, helping send a 1050 mb surface high southward
into the region. Models continue to show a signal for light snow
or flurries behind the front for a brief period Friday evening
before dry air shuts things off rather quickly. The highest
chances for light snow appear to be across northwest OK, but could
see flurries further south and east into central OK as well.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected at this time.
The greater impact to our area will be cold temperatures as arctic
high pressure builds into the region Friday night. Lows in the
single digits are forecast for much of Oklahoma with low to mid
teens near and south of the Red River. Factoring in brisk north
winds will lead to wind chills ranging from near -10 north to 0 to 5
above across the south. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Friday
night into Saturday morning for the entire area. Even with a good
deal of sunshine on Saturday, continued cold advection will keep
highs only in the 20s for much of the area, with some low 30s out
west.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
That powerhouse trough will exit the East Coast on Sunday with
height rises across much of the central US. Because of that, Sunday
through Tuesday looks much more primed to be a real warmup than the
stunted warming trend we've seen this week. Temperatures could
return to near or above normal as soon as Monday.
One of the major long-term forecast questions will be the potential
for precipitation from early-to-mid next week. Global models show an
increasing influence from the STJ at some point during that period,
which seems to have been a big driver of a lot of our precipitation
events in the last 2 or 3 years. The signal is far from certain and
is being damped out by some timing uncertainty, but we'll continue
to watch the pattern. If anything, this does look like it would be a
warmer system than the one we just encountered, increasing the
potential for rain in lieu of snow. No significant cooldowns are
obvious in the extended range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
North winds will prevail through the period with a low chance for
patchy fog across western north Texas and far southwest Oklahoma
tonight. Confidence was too low for any fog development at SPS
tonight, so have opted to leave it out of this TAF issuance.
Amendments will be made with the changing trends. Low MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected to move in from the north across much of northern
into central Oklahoma through the evening hours tomorrow. There is
a low chance for light snow and/or flurries, with the greatest
chances for light snow across northwest Oklahoma with a PROB30 in
at WWR from 00-06z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 17 36 7 24 / 0 0 10 0
Hobart OK 15 44 8 28 / 0 0 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 19 44 13 30 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 18 46 8 33 / 0 0 20 0
Ponca City OK 12 32 0 21 / 0 10 10 0
Durant OK 22 43 12 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM CST
Saturday for OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM CST
Saturday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260130T0413.txt
453
FXUS64 KOUN 300016
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
616 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
- Below-zero wind chills likely Friday night into Saturday morning
across much of Oklahoma.
- Light snow/flurries possible Friday evening across
northwest/western OK, no accumulation expected.
- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal for much of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
A cold front will continue to progress across the area through the
remainder of the afternoon, bringing a northerly wind shift and
keeping temperatures cooler across central and northern Oklahoma
where highs in the 30s are expected, with 40s elsewhere. Mainly
clear skies are expected tonight, allowing temperatures to drop
into the teens for much of the area. Although it didn't end up
materializing this morning, will once again need to watch for the
potential for freezing fog Friday morning, especially across
northern and western Oklahoma where winds are forecast to be the
weakest. For now any fog appears it would be patchy and overall a
low probability scenario.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Below normal temperatures will continue for much of the area on
Friday as northerly winds persist and scattered clouds prevent full
insolation. A secondary surge of colder air is expected to move in
Friday night as a lobe of shortwave energy dives southward across
the upper Midwest, helping send a 1050 mb surface high southward
into the region. Models continue to show a signal for light snow
or flurries behind the front for a brief period Friday evening
before dry air shuts things off rather quickly. The highest
chances for light snow appear to be across northwest OK, but could
see flurries further south and east into central OK as well.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected at this time.
The greater impact to our area will be cold temperatures as arctic
high pressure builds into the region Friday night. Lows in the
single digits are forecast for much of Oklahoma with low to mid
teens near and south of the Red River. Factoring in brisk north
winds will lead to wind chills ranging from near -10 north to 0 to 5
above across the south. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Friday
night into Saturday morning for the entire area. Even with a good
deal of sunshine on Saturday, continued cold advection will keep
highs only in the 20s for much of the area, with some low 30s out
west.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
That powerhouse trough will exit the East Coast on Sunday with
height rises across much of the central US. Because of that, Sunday
through Tuesday looks much more primed to be a real warmup than the
stunted warming trend we've seen this week. Temperatures could
return to near or above normal as soon as Monday.
One of the major long-term forecast questions will be the potential
for precipitation from early-to-mid next week. Global models show an
increasing influence from the STJ at some point during that period,
which seems to have been a big driver of a lot of our precipitation
events in the last 2 or 3 years. The signal is far from certain and
is being damped out by some timing uncertainty, but we'll continue
to watch the pattern. If anything, this does look like it would be a
warmer system than the one we just encountered, increasing the
potential for rain in lieu of snow. No significant cooldowns are
obvious in the extended range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
North breezy winds will diminish this evening with light north
winds expected through the day Friday. There is a low chance for
fog at SPS Friday morning, but confidence is too low for mention
in the TAFs. Low clouds will fill into north central and central
Oklahoma Friday afternoon into the evening hours with MVFR
ceilings possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 17 36 7 24 / 0 0 10 0
Hobart OK 15 44 8 28 / 0 0 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 19 44 13 30 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 18 46 8 33 / 0 0 20 0
Ponca City OK 12 32 0 21 / 0 10 10 0
Durant OK 22 43 12 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM CST
Saturday for OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM CST
Saturday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260130T0016.txt
095
FXUS64 KOUN 291809
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
- Below-zero wind chills likely Friday night into Saturday morning
across much of Oklahoma.
- Light snow/flurries possible Friday evening across
northwest/western OK, no accumulation expected.
- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal for much of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
A cold front will continue to progress across the area through the
remainder of the afternoon, bringing a northerly wind shift and
keeping temperatures cooler across central and northern Oklahoma
where highs in the 30s are expected, with 40s elsewhere. Mainly
clear skies are expected tonight, allowing temperatures to drop
into the teens for much of the area. Although it didn't end up
materializing this morning, will once again need to watch for the
potential for freezing fog Friday morning, especially across
northern and western Oklahoma where winds are forecast to be the
weakest. For now any fog appears it would be patchy and overall a
low probability scenario.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Below normal temperatures will continue for much of the area on
Friday as northerly winds persist and scattered clouds prevent full
insolation. A secondary surge of colder air is expected to move in
Friday night as a lobe of shortwave energy dives southward across
the upper Midwest, helping send a 1050 mb surface high southward
into the region. Models continue to show a signal for light snow
or flurries behind the front for a brief period Friday evening
before dry air shuts things off rather quickly. The highest
chances for light snow appear to be across northwest OK, but could
see flurries further south and east into central OK as well.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected at this time.
The greater impact to our area will be cold temperatures as arctic
high pressure builds into the region Friday night. Lows in the
single digits are forecast for much of Oklahoma with low to mid
teens near and south of the Red River. Factoring in brisk north
winds will lead to wind chills ranging from near -10 north to 0 to 5
above across the south. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Friday
night into Saturday morning for the entire area. Even with a good
deal of sunshine on Saturday, continued cold advection will keep
highs only in the 20s for much of the area, with some low 30s out
west.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
That powerhouse trough will exit the East Coast on Sunday with
height rises across much of the central US. Because of that, Sunday
through Tuesday looks much more primed to be a real warmup than the
stunted warming trend we've seen this week. Temperatures could
return to near or above normal as soon as Monday.
One of the major long-term forecast questions will be the potential
for precipitation from early-to-mid next week. Global models show an
increasing influence from the STJ at some point during that period,
which seems to have been a big driver of a lot of our precipitation
events in the last 2 or 3 years. The signal is far from certain and
is being damped out by some timing uncertainty, but we'll continue
to watch the pattern. If anything, this does look like it would be a
warmer system than the one we just encountered, increasing the
potential for rain in lieu of snow. No significant cooldowns are
obvious in the extended range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
A gusty northerly wind will prevail behind a cold front this
afternoon, before the wind decreases after 00-2Z. The cold front
has yet to reach DUA, so a southwesterly wind will prevail until
the frontal passage around 21Z.
Low clouds, with MVFR ceilings, have been confined to northwestern
Oklahoma this morning. It's possible that scattered to perhaps
a broken cloud deck may form across north central and central
Oklahoma this afternoon. High pressure will build over the
region late this evening and overnight. With a light there is
a chance of light fog developing by 12Z Friday. Confidence is
rather low in occurrence, so will not mention in TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 17 36 7 24 / 0 0 10 0
Hobart OK 15 44 8 28 / 0 0 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 19 44 13 30 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 18 46 8 33 / 0 0 20 0
Ponca City OK 12 32 0 21 / 0 10 10 0
Durant OK 22 43 12 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM CST
Saturday for OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM CST
Saturday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260129T1809.txt
648
FXUS64 KOUN 291718
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1118 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
- Freezing fog possible Thursday morning across southeast
Oklahoma.
- Below-zero wind chills likely Friday night into Saturday
morning across much of Oklahoma.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Southerly winds continue tonight with temperatures drifting down
into the mid-20s. Trends are looking less favorable for freezing fog
tonight. RH is only reaching 80 percent in a few spots in southeast,
north central, and southwest Oklahoma around midnight. Still think
that patchy freezing fog is possible in a few spots around daybreak,
with associated slick spots on roads, sidewalks, and bridges.
A surface low will develop just before sunrise in northwest Oklahoma
and move east-southeastward through the state during the day. Behind
the front, a push of northerly winds and low cloud cover is
expected. This will keep high temperatures cooler primarily in a
zone just west of I-35, though all of us will remain below-average.
No precipitation will accompany the frontal passage.
Meister
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Friday will be chilly but at least partly sunny as a trough kicks
southward toward the Ozarks. Behind that trough, another Arctic high
is loading up across the prairie provinces, and that will start
oozing due southward shortly after sunset Friday evening. We will
likely see a modest secondary cold frontal passage during the early
overnight hours. Behind this front, there is a low (20%) potential
for light snow across primarily northwest Oklahoma. Extensive
precipitation cover is unlikely due to overwhelming cold advection.
By Saturday, the surface high will extend from western north Texas
up to Minnesota. If there is any residual snowpack, surface
temperatures could get below zero. Even if that doesn't happen, a
light north breeze will be enough to bring wind chills back into the
0 to 10 below range, so we are likely tracking toward another
morning with cold weather headlines. The rest of the day on Saturday
will pass quietly with partly to mostly sunny skies and cold high
temperatures.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
That powerhouse trough will exit the East Coast on Sunday with
height rises across much of the central US. Because of that, Sunday
through Tuesday looks much more primed to be a real warmup than the
stunted warming trend we've seen this week. Temperatures could
return to near or above normal as soon as Monday.
One of the major long-term forecast questions will be the potential
for precipitation from early-to-mid next week. Global models show an
increasing influence from the STJ at some point during that period,
which seems to have been a big driver of a lot of our precipitation
events in the last 2 or 3 years. The signal is far from certain and
is being damped out by some timing uncertainty, but we'll continue
to watch the pattern. If anything, this does look like it would be a
warmer system than the one we just encountered, increasing the
potential for rain in lieu of snow. No significant cooldowns are
obvious in the extended range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
A gusty northerly wind will prevail behind a cold front this
afternoon, before the wind decreases after 00-2Z. The cold front
has yet to reach DUA, so a southwesterly wind will prevail until
the frontal passage around 21Z.
Low clouds, with MVFR ceilings, have been confined to northwestern
Oklahoma this morning. It's possible that scattered to perhaps
a broken cloud deck may form across north central and central
Oklahoma this afternoon. High pressure will build over the
region late this evening and overnight. With a light there is
a chance of light fog developing by 12Z Friday. Confidence is
rather low in occurrence, so will not mention in TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 36 18 35 7 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 39 16 44 8 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 44 20 44 13 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 40 17 45 7 / 0 0 0 20
Ponca City OK 34 13 31 0 / 10 0 0 10
Durant OK 48 23 42 11 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM CST
Saturday for OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM CST
Saturday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260129T1718.txt
698
FXUS64 KOUN 291108
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
508 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 505 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
- Freezing fog possible Thursday morning across southeast
Oklahoma.
- Below-zero wind chills likely Friday night into Saturday
morning across much of Oklahoma.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Southerly winds continue tonight with temperatures drifting down
into the mid-20s. Trends are looking less favorable for freezing fog
tonight. RH is only reaching 80 percent in a few spots in southeast,
north central, and southwest Oklahoma around midnight. Still think
that patchy freezing fog is possible in a few spots around daybreak,
with associated slick spots on roads, sidewalks, and bridges.
A surface low will develop just before sunrise in northwest Oklahoma
and move east-southeastward through the state during the day. Behind
the front, a push of northerly winds and low cloud cover is
expected. This will keep high temperatures cooler primarily in a
zone just west of I-35, though all of us will remain below-average.
No precipitation will accompany the frontal passage.
Meister
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Friday will be chilly but at least partly sunny as a trough kicks
southward toward the Ozarks. Behind that trough, another Arctic high
is loading up across the prairie provinces, and that will start
oozing due southward shortly after sunset Friday evening. We will
likely see a modest secondary cold frontal passage during the early
overnight hours. Behind this front, there is a low (20%) potential
for light snow across primarily northwest Oklahoma. Extensive
precipitation cover is unlikely due to overwhelming cold advection.
By Saturday, the surface high will extend from western north Texas
up to Minnesota. If there is any residual snowpack, surface
temperatures could get below zero. Even if that doesn't happen, a
light north breeze will be enough to bring wind chills back into the
0 to 10 below range, so we are likely tracking toward another
morning with cold weather headlines. The rest of the day on Saturday
will pass quietly with partly to mostly sunny skies and cold high
temperatures.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
That powerhouse trough will exit the East Coast on Sunday with
height rises across much of the central US. Because of that, Sunday
through Tuesday looks much more primed to be a real warmup than the
stunted warming trend we've seen this week. Temperatures could
return to near or above normal as soon as Monday.
One of the major long-term forecast questions will be the potential
for precipitation from early-to-mid next week. Global models show an
increasing influence from the STJ at some point during that period,
which seems to have been a big driver of a lot of our precipitation
events in the last 2 or 3 years. The signal is far from certain and
is being damped out by some timing uncertainty, but we'll continue
to watch the pattern. If anything, this does look like it would be a
warmer system than the one we just encountered, increasing the
potential for rain in lieu of snow. No significant cooldowns are
obvious in the extended range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Gusty north winds will follow behind a front, along with an area
of low clouds (MVFR, low chance IFR). Ceilings will lift and
winds will die down this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 36 18 35 7 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 39 16 44 8 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 44 20 44 13 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 40 17 45 7 / 0 0 0 20
Ponca City OK 34 13 31 0 / 10 0 0 10
Durant OK 48 23 42 11 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260129T1108.txt
