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994 
FXUS64 KOUN 290709
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Some morning fog, some dense, across the south central/southeast 
will linger through mid-morning before dissipating. A dense fog 
advisory has been issued for portions southeast Oklahoma for this 
morning.

Storm system will continue to move away from the area today with 
weak surface boundary washing out and south winds returning to the 
entire area by afternoon. A minor wave moves out of the Rockies by 
afternoon and perhaps an isolated storm may impact far northwest 
Oklahoma. Any storm that does develop is not expected to become 
severe as instability will remain limited. Otherwise, mainly sunny 
skies and warm temperatures expected across the area today. 

Similar conditions continue tonight as temperatures fall from the 
80s back into the lower 60s and upper 50s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tuesday looks to begin a stretch of a more active period with 
chances for severe weather as well as some heavy rainfall that could 
lead to an increased flood risk. 

First off for Tuesday, dryline gets reestablished across western 
Oklahoma with afternoon CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and modest 
wind fields. Although no real strong upper wave is present, still 
appears that some isolated severe storms are possible by late in the 
day and into the evening hours. To the west of the dryline across 
northwest Oklahoma elevated to near critical fire weather conditions 
will occur as RH values drop into the teens with temperatures 
warming into the lower 90s. This area again missed out on any 
significant precip over the weekend.

Increase in southwest flow occurs by Wednesday in advance of broad 
western trough. Some hint of minor wave moves out into the Plains 
Wednesday afternoon with dryline again tightening up near the 100th 
meridian and warm sector instability again in excess of 2500 J/kg. 
This along with strengthening wind fields expect to see scattered 
storms along and east of the dryline, some of these would likely be 
severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. 
Also this activity could continue through the overnight leading to 
excessive rainfall and increasing risk of flooding. By this time a 
flood watch may be needed across parts of the area. 

By Thursday with the approach of the main upper trough, an 
associated surface front will surge south with continued chance for 
showers and storms along and south of the front. Conditions ahead of 
the front will again be conducive for severe storms and additional 
heavy rainfall. 

Front sweeps across the area with drier and cooler weather expected 
for Friday. However, this dry weather looks to be short-lived as 
models show subtropical jet brings energy toward the southern Plains 
from the Baja region and more potentially heavy rainfall for the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

All terminals except KDUA will remain under VFR conditions through
the entire forecast period. Expecting fog to develop after 09Z
across southeast Oklahoma with terminal KDUA initially reducing to
MVFR conditions then down to LIFR conditions due to lowering
stratus between 13-16Z then returning to VFR conditions for the
rest of the forecast. Surface winds will be light and northerly
through 17Z then becoming southeasterly between 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  61  85  66 /  10   0  20  20 
Hobart OK         82  60  88  64 /  10   0  20  20 
Wichita Falls TX  84  62  87  66 /   0   0  10  20 
Gage OK           82  57  93  60 /  20   0  10  10 
Ponca City OK     78  58  87  63 /  10  10  10  40 
Durant OK         83  60  83  66 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ032-
     041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68


File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20240429T0709.txt

 999 FXUS64 KOUN 290353 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1053 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Latest radar shows showers have developed over south-central into east-central Oklahoma with lightning probable shortly with the shower in Carter County with isothermal reflectivity at -10C at almost 40 dBZ. SPC mesoanalysis page shows weak to moderate mixed- layer instability and strong bulk shear (0-6km layer) over this area. Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon across this area but there is high uncertainty as to the strength/severity given the atmosphere should be worked-over and storms currently ongoing across central Texas could limit storm potential here. Nevertheless, there are signals from the CAMS that a few storms could produce some hail up to quarter-size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. There is a very low tornado threat for an area along/east of a line from Holdenville to Ada to west of Madill where low-level shear (0-1km) is prog'd at around 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should exit our CWA by early this evening. Skies are forecast to clear for most of the area tonight with low temperatures mostly in the 50's. Early tomorrow morning, patchy fog could develop over parts of south-central to southeastern Oklahoma and potentially parts of western north Texas. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies are forecast with high temperatures in the 70's and 80's. There is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over northwestern Oklahoma in the afternoon. Any storms that develop should remain below severe-limits and produce some gusty winds. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 This upcoming week appears to be relatively active pattern with the potential for severe storms and flash flood on Tuesday (marginal risk for both), Wednesday (slight risk for both), and possibly Thursday (slight risk of flash flooding over the southeast). By Tuesday, the dryline becomes better defined once again over the Texas panhandle as a shortwave passes across the north- central plains and as a cold front approaches from the north. The greatest dynamic ascent appears to be north of our area and storm chances remain fairly low for Tuesday. By Wednesday, a shortwave appears to dig as it nears the Rockies and there are slightly better rain/storm chances across much of the area with a slight risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall. While we are not outlooked yet for Thursday, the prog'd synoptic pattern would favor severe weather as a cold front begins to move through. There remains timing differences on the approaching upper trough. Highest rain chances of the forecast period occur on Thursday afternoon with likely POPs east of Hwy 81. Beyond then, there are daily rain chances with somewhat cooler temperatures end of next week. Thompson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 All terminals except KDUA will remain under VFR conditions through the entire forecast period. Expecting fog to develop after 09Z across southeast Oklahoma with terminal KDUA initially reducing to MVFR conditions then down to LIFR conditions due to lowering stratus between 13-16Z then returning to VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast. Surface winds will be light and northerly through 17Z then becoming southeasterly between 5-10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 54 80 61 85 / 40 10 0 10 Hobart OK 51 82 60 88 / 0 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 56 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 46 82 57 93 / 0 20 0 10 Ponca City OK 49 78 58 87 / 10 10 10 20 Durant OK 59 83 60 83 / 10 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...68  File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20240429T0353.txt
 741 FXUS64 KOUN 282013 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Though chances remain low at this time, we are watching for the potential of thunderstorm development this afternoon for areas generally south of I-40 and east of I-35 from 1 PM through 6 PM. The primary upper low pressure system that brought last night's severe weather still remains to our northwest (centered over southwest Nebraska) with small vorticity lobes currently in the vicinity of central Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico/TX panhandle. This could provide sufficient dynamic ascent within this area this afternoon for storm development, should the atmosphere be able to recover from last night. There is a trend of some atmospheric recovery to our south, and given the 12Z model output, there is some concern that storm development could impact teams that are currently assisting with search and rescue and post- event clean up. Guidance indicates moderate instability is possible with plenty of 0-6 bulk shear which could mainly lead to large hail and damaging wind gusts. Again, confidence in severe development in this area is very low. hHowever, the environment may be there if recovery can be achieved. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Latest radar shows showers have developed over south-central into east-central Oklahoma with lightning probable shortly with the shower in Carter County with isothermal reflectivity at -10C at almost 40 dBZ. SPC mesoanalysis page shows weak to moderate mixed- layer instability and strong bulk shear (0-6km layer) over this area. Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon across this area but there is high uncertainty as to the strength/severity given the atmosphere should be worked-over and storms currently ongoing across central Texas could limit storm potential here. Nevertheless, there are signals from the CAMS that a few storms could produce some hail up to quarter-size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. There is a very low tornado threat for an area along/east of a line from Holdenville to Ada to west of Madill where low-level shear (0-1km) is prog'd at around 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should exit our CWA by early this evening. Skies are forecast to clear for most of the area tonight with low temperatures mostly in the 50's. Early tomorrow morning, patchy fog could develop over parts of south-central to southeastern Oklahoma and potentially parts of western north Texas. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies are forecast with high temperatures in the 70's and 80's. There is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over northwestern Oklahoma in the afternoon. Any storms that develop should remain below severe-limits and produce some gusty winds. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 This upcoming week appears to be relatively active pattern with the potential for severe storms and flash flood on Tuesday (marginal risk for both), Wednesday (slight risk for both), and possibly Thursday (slight risk of flash flooding over the southeast). By Tuesday, the dryline becomes better defined once again over the Texas panhandle as a shortwave passes across the north- central plains and as a cold front approaches from the north. The greatest dynamic ascent appears to be north of our area and storm chances remain fairly low for Tuesday. By Wednesday, a shortwave appears to dig as it nears the Rockies and there are slightly better rain/storm chances across much of the area with a slight risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall. While we are not outlooked yet for Thursday, the prog'd synoptic pattern would favor severe weather as a cold front begins to move through. There remains timing differences on the approaching upper trough. Highest rain chances of the forecast period occur on Thursday afternoon with likely POPs east of Hwy 81. Beyond then, there are daily rain chances with somewhat cooler temeratures end of next week. Thompson && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Rain has moved east of most of our sites, outside of KDUA, but IFR ceilings will remain at several of our central and southern sites through mid morning. Clearing is then expected with VFR conditions and relatively light winds through the rest of the day and tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 54 80 61 / 20 0 10 0 Hobart OK 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 56 84 62 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 46 82 57 / 10 0 20 0 Ponca City OK 79 49 78 58 / 40 10 10 10 Durant OK 78 59 83 60 / 90 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...08  File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20240428T2013.txt
 820 FXUS64 KOUN 281749 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Though chances remain low at this time, we are watching for the potential of thunderstorm development this afternoon for areas generally south of I-40 and east of I-35 from 1 PM through 6 PM. The primary upper low pressure system that brought last night's severe weather still remains to our northwest (centered over southwest Nebraska) with small vorticity lobes currently in the vicinity of central Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico/TX panhandle. This could provide sufficient dynamic ascent within this area this afternoon for storm development, should the atmosphere be able to recover from last night. There is a trend of some atmospheric recovery to our south, and given the 12Z model output, there is some concern that storm development could impact teams that are currently assisting with search and rescue and post- event clean up. Guidance indicates moderate instability is possible with plenty of 0-6 bulk shear which could mainly lead to large hail and damaging wind gusts. Again, confidence in severe development in this area is very low. hHowever, the environment may be there if recovery can be achieved. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 MCS and lingering line of storms will continue to affect portions of southeast Oklahoma today. This will include a severe and flooding risk to go along with it. Most of the activity should shift east of the area during the afternoon hours. Will keep a portion of the flood watch for this area into the afternoon hours and will drop counties farther west from the watch. The remainder of the area will get a respite after a long day and night of severe weather. Otherwise, lighter winds, mild temperatures and clearing skies will make for a more tranquil day today across much of western and central sections of the area. Slightly drier air, clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures tonight to drop into the 40s and 50s across much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Quiet weather expected Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. South winds return in earnest by Tuesday as surface pressure gradient tightens in response to shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. The lower level winds will be veered bringing in much warmer air from the west with temperatures climbing to 80s and low/mid 90s. Southwest flow returns by midweek and a southern stream trough may bring an increasing chance of storms. Sufficient instability will be present for a few severe storms to be possible. A strong cold front still appears on track to move through late Thursday into Friday which should bring a cooler, drier airmass into the area for at least the first part of next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Rain has moved east of most of our sites, outside of KDUA, but IFR ceilings will remain at several of our central and southern sites through mid morning. Clearing is then expected with VFR conditions and relatively light winds through the rest of the day and tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 54 80 61 / 20 0 10 0 Hobart OK 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 55 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 45 82 57 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 79 48 78 57 / 40 0 0 10 Durant OK 78 60 82 60 / 90 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...08  File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20240428T1749.txt
 376 FXUS64 KOUN 281730 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 MCS and lingering line of storms will continue to affect portions of southeast Oklahoma today. This will include a severe and flooding risk to go along with it. Most of the activity should shift east of the area during the afternoon hours. Will keep a portion of the flood watch for this area into the afternoon hours and will drop counties farther west from the watch. The remainder of the area will get a respite after a long day and night of severe weather. Otherwise, lighter winds, mild temperatures and clearing skies will make for a more tranquil day today across much of western and central sections of the area. Slightly drier air, clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures tonight to drop into the 40s and 50s across much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Quiet weather expected Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. South winds return in earnest by Tuesday as surface pressure gradient tightens in response to shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. The lower level winds will be veered bringing in much warmer air from the west with temperatures climbing to 80s and low/mid 90s. Southwest flow returns by midweek and a southern stream trough may bring an increasing chance of storms. Sufficient instability will be present for a few severe storms to be possible. A strong cold front still appears on track to move through late Thursday into Friday which should bring a cooler, drier airmass into the area for at least the first part of next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 MVFR ceilings will continue to slowly improve this afternoon. VFR ceilings are then expected until early Monday when MVFR ceilings will be possible again mainly in parts of southern OK and north TX. Some patchy BR will also be possible at a few sites early Monday, with the highest potential at KDUA. A few storms could also develop later this afternoon primarily affecting KDUA but chances currently too low to put in TAF. Winds will slowly shift and become light tonight then become SE Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 54 80 61 / 20 0 10 0 Hobart OK 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 55 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 45 82 57 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 79 48 78 57 / 40 0 0 10 Durant OK 78 60 82 60 / 90 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20240428T1730.txt
 662 FXUS64 KOUN 281131 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 631 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 MCS and lingering line of storms will continue to affect portions of southeast Oklahoma today. This will include a severe and flooding risk to go along with it. Most of the activity should shift east of the area during the afternoon hours. Will keep a portion of the flood watch for this area into the afternoon hours and will drop counties farther west from the watch. The remainder of the area will get a respite after a long day and night of severe weather. Otherwise, lighter winds, mild temperatures and clearing skies will make for a more tranquil day today across much of western and central sections of the area. Slightly drier air, clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures tonight to drop into the 40s and 50s across much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Quiet weather expected Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. South winds return in earnest by Tuesday as surface pressure gradient tightens in response to shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. The lower level winds will be veered bringing in much warmer air from the west with temperatures climbing to 80s and low/mid 90s. Southwest flow returns by midweek and a southern stream trough may bring an increasing chance of storms. Sufficient instability will be present for a few severe storms to be possible. A strong cold front still appears on track to move through late Thursday into Friday which should bring a cooler, drier airmass into the area for at least the first part of next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Rain has moved east of most of our sites, outside of KDUA, but IFR ceilings will remain at several of our central and southern sites through mid morning. Clearing is then expected with VFR conditions and relatively light winds through the rest of the day and tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 54 80 61 / 20 0 10 0 Hobart OK 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 55 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 45 82 57 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 79 48 78 57 / 40 0 0 10 Durant OK 78 60 82 60 / 90 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>008-010>013- 015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...08  File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20240428T1131.txt
 658 FXUS64 KOUN 280705 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 205 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 MCS and lingering line of storms will continue to affect portions of southeast Oklahoma today. This will include a severe and flooding risk to go along with it. Most of the activity should shift east of the area during the afternoon hours. Will keep a portion of the flood watch for this area into the afternoon hours and will drop counties farther west from the watch. The remainder of the area will get a respite after a long day and night of severe weather. Otherwise, lighter winds, mild temperatures and clearing skies will make for a more tranquil day today across much of western and central sections of the area. Slightly drier air, clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures tonight to drop into the 40s and 50s across much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Quiet weather expected Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. South winds return in earnest by Tuesday as surface pressure gradient tightens in response to shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. The lower level winds will be veered bringing in much warmer air from the west with temperatures climbing to 80s and low/mid 90s. Southwest flow returns by midweek and a southern stream trough may bring an increasing chance of storms. Sufficient instability will be present for a few severe storms to be possible. A strong cold front still appears on track to move through late Thursday into Friday which should bring a cooler, drier airmass into the area for at least the first part of next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Main line of storms is on track to clear all sites except DUA where an arrival around 2 AM is expected. Farther west near WWR, a small line of TS may survive its journey east and impact PNC during the pre-dawn hours, although this is too uncertain for mention in the TAF. Otherwise, some visby restrictions and MVFR ceilings are likely to develop well in the wake of the main line of storms before VFR resumes by mid/late morning. DUA remains likely to see another bout of TS by the afternoon ahead of the dryline and cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 54 80 61 / 20 0 10 0 Hobart OK 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 55 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 45 82 57 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 79 48 78 57 / 40 0 0 10 Durant OK 78 60 82 60 / 90 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>008-010>013- 015>020-022>030-035-037>040-044-045. Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ031-032-041>043-046>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...93  File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20240428T0705.txt
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