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722 
FXUS64 KOUN 091052
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
552 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 550 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

 - Mainly dry and a bit cooler early this week. 

 - Widespread rain chances return by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Cooler and somewhat drier air will filter south in the wake of last 
nights MCS and a weak cold front that will push south through the 
area this morning. This will result in a quieter day with slightly 
cooler temperatures across Oklahoma and north Texas. There is an 
outside chance for a storm or two this afternoon across western 
north Texas with perhaps a better chance during the evening hours as 
convection develop across the High Plains of New Mexico and then 
propagates southeast toward western north Texas. If these can 
maintain themselves some severe risk would accompany this activity. 
Otherwise, the remainder of the area will be dry today and tonight. 

North winds today behind the front will quickly shift back around to 
the south overnight as area of surface high pressure shifts east of 
the area. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Shortwave trough drops southeast out of the Southern Rockies into 
west Texas on Tuesday and then move east along the Red river Tuesday 
evening. This will bring an increasing chance of showers and 
thunderstorms to that area. Again no widespread severe anticipated, 
but given possible instability values some isolated severe can not 
be ruled out late Tuesday across the south. 

This shortwave will then interact and consolidate with another 
shortwave moving along the southern U.S. border by Wednesday morning 
over central/north central Texas. This upper low will then translate 
slowly north and northeast across north Texas and Oklahoma Wednesday 
and Wednesday night, brining more widespread rain back to the area, 
unfortunately.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Models differ on timing of this upper low traversing the area, where 
the GFS takes it northeast quite a bit quicker than the ECMWF. Its 
already north and east of the area Thursday morning with the GFS, 
while the ECMWF keeps it meandering around the state through 
Saturday before kicking it east. With the uncertainty with regards 
to timing will likely need to maintain some precip chances into the 
weekend.

Beyond this, models do depict a upper ridge building northeast out 
of the Rockies into the Plains as we go through the weekend into 
early the following week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Primarily dry weather is expected over the next 24 hours, though a
low (20% or so) chance of a thunderstorm does exist in western
north Texas late this evening and overnight. Skies have cleared
out which could allow brief MVFR stratus to develop this morning.
After that, VFR conditions will dominate.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  65  88  66 /  10   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         85  64  87  64 /  10   0   0  10 
Wichita Falls TX  85  67  86  66 /  10  10  10  20 
Gage OK           84  62  88  62 /   0   0   0  10 
Ponca City OK     86  61  90  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         85  67  87  68 /  10   0   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250609T1052.txt

 536 FXUS64 KOUN 090644 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 144 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Mainly dry and a bit cooler early this week. - Widespread rain chances return by midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Cooler and somewhat drier air will filter south in the wake of last nights MCS and a weak cold front that will push south through the area this morning. This will result in a quieter day with slightly cooler temperatures across Oklahoma and north Texas. There is an outside chance for a storm or two this afternoon across western north Texas with perhaps a better chance during the evening hours as convection develop across the High Plains of New Mexico and then propagates southeast toward western north Texas. If these can maintain themselves some severe risk would accompany this activity. Otherwise, the remainder of the area will be dry today and tonight. North winds today behind the front will quickly shift back around to the south overnight as area of surface high pressure shifts east of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Shortwave trough drops southeast out of the Southern Rockies into west Texas on Tuesday and then move east along the Red river Tuesday evening. This will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to that area. Again no widespread severe anticipated, but given possible instability values some isolated severe can not be ruled out late Tuesday across the south. This shortwave will then interact and consolidate with another shortwave moving along the southern U.S. border by Wednesday morning over central/north central Texas. This upper low will then translate slowly north and northeast across north Texas and Oklahoma Wednesday and Wednesday night, brining more widespread rain back to the area, unfortunately. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Models differ on timing of this upper low traversing the area, where the GFS takes it northeast quite a bit quicker than the ECMWF. Its already north and east of the area Thursday morning with the GFS, while the ECMWF keeps it meandering around the state through Saturday before kicking it east. With the uncertainty with regards to timing will likely need to maintain some precip chances into the weekend. Beyond this, models do depict a upper ridge building northeast out of the Rockies into the Plains as we go through the weekend into early the following week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 MCS exiting south and southeast parts of the area this evening. Some residual shower and thunderstorm activity may impact SPS/DUA for another hour or two. Could also see some MVFR ceilings later tonight into Monday morning before a return to VFR across the entire area by mid-morning. Light north winds expected later tonight and through much of the day tomorrow before winds shift back around to the east/southeast by the end of the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 85 65 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 85 64 87 64 / 10 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 67 86 66 / 10 10 10 20 Gage OK 84 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 86 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 85 67 87 68 / 10 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ014>018- 021>025-027>029-033>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250609T0644.txt
 524 FXUS64 KOUN 090459 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1154 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 - Significant severe weather with the potential of large to very large hail, destructive wind gusts, tornadoes, and flooding are possible this afternoon and evening. - Mainly dry and a bit cooler early this week. - Widespread rain chances return by midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by early to mid-afternoon across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles into northwest Oklahoma as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches a surface cold front. Initial thunderstorms are expected to be supercells with a significant hail (2"+) and some tornado risk. With time, the supercells are expected to grow upscale into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) as they move to the southeast as a cold pool becomes established. There is the potential for destructive, straight-line winds (80 mph or stronger) that could produce damaging wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes as the forward-propagoting MCS accelerates to the southeast Oklahoma into north Texas--especially with any bowing segments. The greatest risk for any QLCS tornadoes will be on the left side of any bowing segments. Currently the most likely track of the MCS is across west- central/southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. However, central Oklahoma will be on the northeast periphery of the MCS. Occasionally, a bookend-vortex can develop on the northeast edge of an MCS that can produce severe weather. Power outages are likely in the track of the most intense winds. In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall will result in a continued threat for flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, where the highest confidence of heavy rainfall is with the complex of thunderstorms. While we expect the complex to be progressive, it will not take a of rainfall to cause flooding problems given the recent rainfall. Widespread 1 to 3" of rainfall is expected with locally higher amounts possible. The complex of thunderstorms is expected to exit southeast Oklahoma just after midnight tonight. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 For Monday, there should be a general lull in shower and thunderstorms in the wake of Sunday's MCS with cooler weather from northerly winds. There could be some remnant convection across western north Texas--but no severe weather is expected. By Tuesday into Tuesday night, a subtle shortwave trough may result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 As the shortwave moves out of the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Wednesday a closed low develops and then swings northeast across the area, bringing more widespread rain to Oklahoma and north Texas. Right now, limited instability at this time should mute the overall severe risk, but a few severe storms can not be ruled out. This split flow and rain chances continue through the end of the week as multiple shortwaves traverse the southern Plains. Models are indicating the potential for an upper ridge building out into the Plains as we go through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 MCS exiting south and southeast parts of the area this evening. Some residual shower and thunderstorm activity may impact SPS/DUA for another hour or two. Could also see some MVFR ceilings later tonight into Monday morning before a return to VFR across the entire area by mid-morning. Light north winds expected later tonight and through much of the day tomorrow before winds shift back around to the east/southeast by the end of the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 84 64 87 / 70 10 0 0 Hobart OK 62 84 63 87 / 90 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 83 65 86 / 100 20 20 10 Gage OK 58 84 60 87 / 50 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 60 85 60 90 / 50 0 0 0 Durant OK 67 84 66 87 / 90 30 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Monday for OKZ014>018-021>025-027>029- 033>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250609T0459.txt
 776 FXUS64 KOUN 082323 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 538 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 - Significant severe weather with the potential of large to very large hail, destructive wind gusts, tornadoes, and flooding are possible this afternoon and evening. - Mainly dry and a bit cooler early this week. - Widespread rain chances return by midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by early to mid-afternoon across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles into northwest Oklahoma as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches a surface cold front. Initial thunderstorms are expected to be supercells with a significant hail (2"+) and some tornado risk. With time, the supercells are expected to grow upscale into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) as they move to the southeast as a cold pool becomes established. There is the potential for destructive, straight-line winds (80 mph or stronger) that could produce damaging wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes as the forward-propagoting MCS accelerates to the southeast Oklahoma into north Texas--especially with any bowing segments. The greatest risk for any QLCS tornadoes will be on the left side of any bowing segments. Currently the most likely track of the MCS is across west- central/southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. However, central Oklahoma will be on the northeast periphery of the MCS. Occasionally, a bookend-vortex can develop on the northeast edge of an MCS that can produce severe weather. Power outages are likely in the track of the most intense winds. In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall will result in a continued threat for flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, where the highest confidence of heavy rainfall is with the complex of thunderstorms. While we expect the complex to be progressive, it will not take a of rainfall to cause flooding problems given the recent rainfall. Widespread 1 to 3" of rainfall is expected with locally higher amounts possible. The complex of thunderstorms is expected to exit southeast Oklahoma just after midnight tonight. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 For Monday, there should be a general lull in shower and thunderstorms in the wake of Sunday's MCS with cooler weather from northerly winds. There could be some remnant convection across western north Texas--but no severe weather is expected. By Tuesday into Tuesday night, a subtle shortwave trough may result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 As the shortwave moves out of the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Wednesday a closed low develops and then swings northeast across the area, bringing more widespread rain to Oklahoma and north Texas. Right now, limited instability at this time should mute the overall severe risk, but a few severe storms can not be ruled out. This split flow and rain chances continue through the end of the week as multiple shortwaves traverse the southern Plains. Models are indicating the potential for an upper ridge building out into the Plains as we go through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed across the Texas Panhandle and parts of western Oklahoma this afternoon. These storms will continue to organize and move southeastward through the evening hours. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds, very heavy rainfall and hail. CSM/LAW/SPS and eventually DUA may be impacted by these storms. A cold front/outflow boundary has already moved across parts of northern Oklahoma. Therefore, WWR/PNC may see storms this evening, but storm intensity will likely be weaker. MVFR conditions are likely near and within thunderstorms, with perhaps MVFR ceilings possible behind a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 84 64 87 / 70 10 0 0 Hobart OK 62 84 63 87 / 90 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 83 65 86 / 100 20 20 10 Gage OK 58 84 60 87 / 50 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 60 85 60 90 / 50 0 0 0 Durant OK 67 84 66 87 / 90 30 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Monday for OKZ014>018-021>025-027>029- 033>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...06 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250608T2323.txt
 911 FXUS64 KOUN 081816 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 116 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 - Significant severe weather with the potential of large to very large hail, destructive wind gusts, tornadoes, and flooding are possible this afternoon and evening. - Mainly dry and a bit cooler early this week. - Widespread rain chances return by midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by early to mid-afternoon across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles into northwest Oklahoma as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches a surface cold front. Initial thunderstorms are expected to be supercells with a significant hail (2"+) and some tornado risk. With time, the supercells are expected to grow upscale into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) as they move to the southeast as a cold pool becomes established. There is the potential for destructive, straight-line winds (80 mph or stronger) that could produce damaging wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes as the forward-propagoting MCS accelerates to the southeast Oklahoma into north Texas--especially with any bowing segments. The greatest risk for any QLCS tornadoes will be on the left side of any bowing segments. Currently the most likely track of the MCS is across west- central/southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. However, central Oklahoma will be on the northeast periphery of the MCS. Occasionally, a bookend-vortex can develop on the northeast edge of an MCS that can produce severe weather. Power outages are likely in the track of the most intense winds. In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall will result in a continued threat for flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, where the highest confidence of heavy rainfall is with the complex of thunderstorms. While we expect the complex to be progressive, it will not take a of rainfall to cause flooding problems given the recent rainfall. Widespread 1 to 3" of rainfall is expected with locally higher amounts possible. The complex of thunderstorms is expected to exit southeast Oklahoma just after midnight tonight. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 For Monday, there should be a general lull in shower and thunderstorms in the wake of Sunday's MCS with cooler weather from northerly winds. There could be some remnant convection across western north Texas--but no severe weather is expected. By Tuesday into Tuesday night, a subtle shortwave trough may result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 As the shortwave moves out of the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Wednesday a closed low develops and then swings northeast across the area, bringing more widespread rain to Oklahoma and north Texas. Right now, limited instability at this time should mute the overall severe risk, but a few severe storms can not be ruled out. This split flow and rain chances continue through the end of the week as multiple shortwaves traverse the southern Plains. Models are indicating the potential for an upper ridge building out into the Plains as we go through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 A few showers/weak thunderstorms can be found near DUA and in western north Texas this morning, but those will move out of our area. Following that, VFR skies will prevail through most of the day. Widespread thunderstorm development will occur in northern and western parts of the area this afternoon, moving southeast through the evening. With these storms, northwest gusts up to 60 knots will be possible in addition to hail and very heavy rainfall. Overall, winds shift to northeasterly tonight after storms depart. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 84 64 87 / 70 10 0 0 Hobart OK 62 84 63 87 / 90 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 83 65 86 / 100 20 20 10 Gage OK 58 84 60 87 / 50 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 60 85 60 90 / 50 0 0 0 Durant OK 67 84 66 87 / 90 30 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight for OKZ033>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...04 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250608T1816.txt
 604 FXUS64 KOUN 081733 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 - Significant severe weather with the potential of large to very large hail, destructive wind gusts, tornadoes, and flooding are possible this afternoon and evening. - Mainly dry and a bit cooler early this week. - Widespread rain chances return by midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 A shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies and interact with a southward advancing cold front Sunday to produce thunderstorms as early as mid/late morning across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. Last few model runs have depicted this scenario, but has quickened the development earlier in the day. Even by mid-morning models are showing modest amounts of instability and shear with values continuing to climb to the south of this convection across Oklahoma and Texas. By afternoon, extreme instability and modest deep-layer shear will favor supercell thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. This activity is expected to rather quickly grow upscale into a forward propagating MCS capable of extremely damaging straight-line winds, perhaps in the 80-100 mph range, as it tracks southeast across much of the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Most likely track would take it across west central into perhaps central Oklahoma then southeast impacting much of southern Oklahoma then south into north Texas. Very heavy rainfall will also accompany this complex of storms. It's forward motion should limit the overall flash flood risk, but some isolated flooding will be possible, especially given antecedent conditions. MCS should shift south of the area by late this evening or just after midnight with some lingering showers across the south through the night. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Still appears that we will have a bit of a lull in the wake of Sunday's MCS, with some time to catch our breath. Large upper low over the Great Lakes will put us under the influence of north/northwest flow, with some lingering rain chances through Tuesday across the Red River valley and perhaps a few degrees cooler for daytime highs. Models show split mid-level flow developing across the western conus early this week with southern stream wave approaching the as we go into Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will keep rain chances in the forecast, mainly across southern Oklahoma into north Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 As the shortwave moves out of the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Wednesday a closed low develops and then swings northeast across the area, bringing more widespread rain to Oklahoma and north Texas. Right now, limited instability at this time should mute the overall severe risk, but a few severe storms can not be ruled out. This split flow and rain chances continue through the end of the week as multiple shortwaves traverse the southern Plains. Models are indicating the potential for an upper ridge building out into the Plains as we go through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front by mid afternoon. Storms are expected to organize and move southeast across at least the western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. By 5-6Z, most of severe storms are expected to be south and east of all TAF sites. Terminal sites CSM,LAW,SPS have the best potential of being impacted by severe wind gusts 70 knots +. Elevated convection is developing ahead of the cold front early this afternoon and some of these storms may impact western Oklahoma and western north Texas ahead of the main thunderstorm complex. The front and strong thunderstorm outflow winds will shift winds to the north, but wind speeds should decrease during the late evening and overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 84 64 87 / 70 10 0 0 Hobart OK 62 84 63 87 / 90 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 83 65 86 / 100 20 20 10 Gage OK 58 84 60 87 / 50 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 60 85 60 90 / 50 0 0 0 Durant OK 67 84 66 87 / 90 30 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ033>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...06 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250608T1733.txt


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