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061
FXUS64 KOUN 280645
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
145 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
- Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest
rain totals western OK and western north TX.
- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low
confidence on details.
- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Today will feature rather pleasant, but warm, conditions as we see
much less in the way of cloud cover compared to yesterday and
heights rise slightly through the day. As a result, high
temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon, or about
10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. A tightening
pressure gradient will also boost winds a bit over yesterday, with
gusts up to 25-30 mph possible this afternoon across much of the
area (highest north). High clouds will begin to increase across
southern portions of the area by late afternoon ahead of our next
system but are not expected to have much impact on sensible weather.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Clouds will increase through the day Thursday as mid-level
moisture from Tropical Storm Vance is advected northward within
broader southwest flow aloft, with rain chances increasing as
well across our western north TX counties later Thursday into
Thursday night as a shortwave tracks towards the area. Better rain
chances arrive Friday and Friday night as the wave reaches the
area, with the highest rainfall totals still favored across
western OK and western north TX where warm air advection will be
strongest. Instability appears lacking with this system which
should limit the thunderstorm potential to isolated at best,
meaning a fairly low lightning risk (10-20%) in most areas.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Forcing is expected to weaken Saturday as the wave moves
eastward, but the general trend has been towards a bit slower exit
for precipitation chances Saturday, with rain showers potentially
lasting into the afternoon or early evening across central and
north-central OK. Once again lightning potential appears low.
Storm-total rainfall amounts are likely to exceed an inch across
portions of western OK and western north TX where NBM is still
highlighting over 60-70% probabilities of this amount, with
probabilities of exceeding an inch of rain quickly dropping to
10-20% along and east of I-35 where totals closer to 0.5-0.75" are
expected to be more common.
Drier conditions are forecast Saturday night into much of the day
on Sunday but will not last long as another system is slated to
move in rather quickly behind this one. Models are still
struggling to resolve the details of this system as energy from
the northern and southern streams attempts to phase over the
central US. Depending on how the two streams interact will
determine the track and amplitude of the system as it moves across
the area early next week. The more amplified solutions would
bring a risk for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall to portions
of the area, while other solutions show extensive dry-slotting and
much lower rainfall totals. No clear favorite is evident in the
ensemble members at the moment leading to rather low forecast
confidence during this period, though for now the period of
greatest potential impact appears to be centered around Monday.
Cooler temperatures are then forecast to move in behind this
system, bringing at least a brief break from our above average
stretch by the middle of next week.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions prevail. Scattered to broken clouds near 5kft are
possible across western Oklahoma. Expect gusty southerly winds by
mid-morning Wednesday with increasing cirrus from the south by
late evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 81 62 82 61 / 0 0 10 30
Hobart OK 82 61 82 60 / 0 0 10 60
Wichita Falls TX 84 62 83 61 / 0 0 30 50
Gage OK 80 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 30
Ponca City OK 83 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 20
Durant OK 84 63 84 63 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261028T0645.txt
128
FXUS64 KOUN 280340
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- More widespread chance of rain returns late Thursday into Friday.
- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week
- Above normal temperatures continue.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
With the exit of the shortwave, precip has ended and skies will
continue to gradually clear of the high and mid clouds this
afternoon, however some development of cumulus, possibly multiple
layers, will likely keep us from complete sunshine. Mild
temperatures expected this afternoon with most of the area in the
70s with a few low 80s across the south.
For tonight, a couple of minor shortwaves traverse the area and
models continue to show some warm advection occurring between 850mb
and 700mb, where moisture remains present. So an isolated shower or
two across northern half of Oklahoma remain possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Should start the day Wednesday with mild temperatures and only a few
clouds. A tightening pressure gradient will cause the winds to pick
up during the day with gusts of 25-35mph by afternoon across the
western half of Oklahoma. In addition, southwest flow aloft will
bring warmer air into the Southern Plains with most of the area
climbing into the low to mid 80s. Anticipate fairly widespread
afternoon cumulus which may temper some areas a degree or two.
Either way temperatures will remain well above normal for late
October(OKC..68, Wichita Falls...73, Lawton...72).
Another very mild morning Thursday as temperatures are only expected
to drop into the upper 50s and low/mid 60s. With the increase in
cloud cover not expected to occur until late in the day, another
very warm day is anticipated as highs top out in the low to middle
80s.
As mentioned above, clouds will begin to increase during the
afternoon hours from south to north as a shortwave lifts north out
of northern Mexico into southwest Texas. Sufficient lift will
approach the Red River by afternoon for an increasing chance of rain
and a few thunderstorms across western north Texas into south
Oklahoma(20-30%). Rain chances continue to increase Thursday night,
especially across western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma after
midnight(60-80%).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
A more active pattern is forecast for the long term period as
troughing over the western US helps direct tropical moisture from
Vance across the eastern Pacific northward over the southern Plains
by late Thursday into Friday. Even though it appears most of the
area can expect at least some rain (PoPs >60% Friday into Friday
night) ensemble guidance continues to favor southwest/western
portions of the area for the highest rainfall totals. Probabilities
for at least an inch of rain are currently around 50-70% across
southwest OK and western north TX but taper off to only about 10-20%
along and east of I-35. The wave is expected to exit to the
northeast early on Saturday, with drier conditions now expected
by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday.
Models then show an amplification of the western US trough as it
moves into the central US later Sunday into early next week. Details
remain unclear at this range but at the very least expect additional
rain chances to return to the area. Depending how the system evolves
will also have to watch for the potential for severe weather, heavy
rain, and/or high winds if the higher amplitude model solutions come
to fruition.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions prevail. Scattered to broken clouds near 5kft are
possible across western Oklahoma. Expect gusty southerly winds by
mid-morning Wednesday with increasing cirrus from the south by
late evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 77 61 81 63 / 20 10 0 0
Hobart OK 77 61 81 61 / 30 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 81 62 84 63 / 30 0 10 0
Gage OK 74 57 80 57 / 10 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 76 61 83 62 / 20 10 10 0
Durant OK 82 59 84 63 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261028T0340.txt
233
FXUS64 KOUN 272320
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
620 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- More widespread chance of rain returns late Thursday into Friday.
- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week
- Above normal temperatures continue.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
With the exit of the shortwave, precip has ended and skies will
continue to gradually clear of the high and mid clouds this
afternoon, however some development of cumulus, possibly multiple
layers, will likely keep us from complete sunshine. Mild
temperatures expected this afternoon with most of the area in the
70s with a few low 80s across the south.
For tonight, a couple of minor shortwaves traverse the area and
models continue to show some warm advection occurring between 850mb
and 700mb, where moisture remains present. So an isolated shower or
two across northern half of Oklahoma remain possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Should start the day Wednesday with mild temperatures and only a few
clouds. A tightening pressure gradient will cause the winds to pick
up during the day with gusts of 25-35mph by afternoon across the
western half of Oklahoma. In addition, southwest flow aloft will
bring warmer air into the Southern Plains with most of the area
climbing into the low to mid 80s. Anticipate fairly widespread
afternoon cumulus which may temper some areas a degree or two.
Either way temperatures will remain well above normal for late
October(OKC..68, Wichita Falls...73, Lawton...72).
Another very mild morning Thursday as temperatures are only expected
to drop into the upper 50s and low/mid 60s. With the increase in
cloud cover not expected to occur until late in the day, another
very warm day is anticipated as highs top out in the low to middle
80s.
As mentioned above, clouds will begin to increase during the
afternoon hours from south to north as a shortwave lifts north out
of northern Mexico into southwest Texas. Sufficient lift will
approach the Red River by afternoon for an increasing chance of rain
and a few thunderstorms across western north Texas into south
Oklahoma(20-30%). Rain chances continue to increase Thursday night,
especially across western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma after
midnight(60-80%).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
A more active pattern is forecast for the long term period as
troughing over the western US helps direct tropical moisture from
Vance across the eastern Pacific northward over the southern Plains
by late Thursday into Friday. Even though it appears most of the
area can expect at least some rain (PoPs >60% Friday into Friday
night) ensemble guidance continues to favor southwest/western
portions of the area for the highest rainfall totals. Probabilities
for at least an inch of rain are currently around 50-70% across
southwest OK and western north TX but taper off to only about 10-20%
along and east of I-35. The wave is expected to exit to the
northeast early on Saturday, with drier conditions now expected
by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday.
Models then show an amplification of the western US trough as it
moves into the central US later Sunday into early next week. Details
remain unclear at this range but at the very least expect additional
rain chances to return to the area. Depending how the system evolves
will also have to watch for the potential for severe weather, heavy
rain, and/or high winds if the higher amplitude model solutions come
to fruition.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with decreasing
clouds. There is a very low chance of widely scattered showers
near KPNC and KSWO this evening with the onset of the nocturnal
LLJ and WAA. Winds increase tomorrow with gusts of 20 to 25 mph
common.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 61 81 63 83 / 10 0 0 10
Hobart OK 61 81 61 82 / 10 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 62 84 63 83 / 0 10 0 40
Gage OK 57 80 57 82 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 61 83 62 84 / 10 10 0 0
Durant OK 59 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261027T2320.txt
774
FXUS64 KOUN 271140
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- More widespread chance of rain returns late Thursday into Friday.
- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week
- Above normal temperatures continue.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Moderate rain across northwest OK continues to lift north of the
area with a trailing line of scattered rain showers across portions
of north-central into central OK. Expect any additional rainfall
amounts to be very light, generally under a tenth of an inch through
the morning. Decreasing clouds and drier conditions are expected by
this afternoon, though with the mid-level moisture plume remaining
over the area and some subtle warm air advection continuing,
can't completely rule out a few isolated showers through tonight
(also hinted at in some of the CAM guidance).
Highs today will be mild once again, generally in the mid 70s for
most with readings near 80 closer to the Red River.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Mild conditions are forecast to continue into Wednesday and
Thursday as our area remains under broad southwest flow aloft. A
tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezier conditions,
especially Wednesday afternoon, with south winds gusting to near
25-30 mph across the northern half of the area. Southerly winds
and rising heights during this period will bring a slight warming
trend as well, with highs expected to return to the low 80s each
afternoon across much of the area.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
A more active pattern is forecast for the long term period as
troughing over the western US helps direct tropical moisture from
Vance across the eastern Pacific northward over the southern Plains
by late Thursday into Friday. Even though it appears most of the
area can expect at least some rain (PoPs >60% Friday into Friday
night) ensemble guidance continues to favor southwest/western
portions of the area for the highest rainfall totals. Probabilities
for at least an inch of rain are currently around 50-70% across
southwest OK and western north TX but taper off to only about 10-20%
along and east of I-35. The wave is expected to exit to the
northeast early on Saturday, with drier conditions now expected
by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday.
Models then show an amplification of the western US trough as it
moves into the central US later Sunday into early next week. Details
remain unclear at this range but at the very least expect additional
rain chances to return to the area. Depending how the system evolves
will also have to watch for the potential for severe weather, heavy
rain, and/or high winds if the higher amplitude model solutions come
to fruition.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
The main area of showers is moving out of the area, although a few
lingering widely scattered showers across northwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas will persist this morning. These showers will
be light and will diminish through the morning.
Patchy IFR/MVFR conditions are occurring across western Oklahoma
with visibility restrictions currently reported at KELK and low
ceilings currently or recently observed at KGAG and KWWR. IFR
ceilings are in the TAF at WWR, and MVFR conditions will be
possible at KCSM but the probability (30%) is not high enough to
mention there. Low clouds will erode/lift through the morning and
it is expected to be VFR areawide by this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 75 61 80 63 / 30 0 10 0
Hobart OK 76 60 80 61 / 20 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 79 61 83 63 / 20 0 10 0
Gage OK 73 57 80 58 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 74 60 82 62 / 30 10 10 0
Durant OK 81 59 84 63 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261027T1140.txt
176
FXUS64 KOUN 270708
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
208 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- More widespread chance of rain returns late Thursday into Friday.
- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week
- Above normal temperatures continue.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Moderate rain across northwest OK continues to lift north of the
area with a trailing line of scattered rain showers across portions
of north-central into central OK. Expect any additional rainfall
amounts to be very light, generally under a tenth of an inch through
the morning. Decreasing clouds and drier conditions are expected by
this afternoon, though with the mid-level moisture plume remaining
over the area and some subtle warm air advection continuing,
can't completely rule out a few isolated showers through tonight
(also hinted at in some of the CAM guidance).
Highs today will be mild once again, generally in the mid 70s for
most with readings near 80 closer to the Red River.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Mild conditions are forecast to continue into Wednesday and
Thursday as our area remains under broad southwest flow aloft. A
tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezier conditions,
especially Wednesday afternoon, with south winds gusting to near
25-30 mph across the northern half of the area. Southerly winds
and rising heights during this period will bring a slight warming
trend as well, with highs expected to return to the low 80s each
afternoon across much of the area.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
A more active pattern is forecast for the long term period as
troughing over the western US helps direct tropical moisture from
Vance across the eastern Pacific northward over the southern Plains
by late Thursday into Friday. Even though it appears most of the
area can expect at least some rain (PoPs >60% Friday into Friday
night) ensemble guidance continues to favor southwest/western
portions of the area for the highest rainfall totals. Probabilities
for at least an inch of rain are currently around 50-70% across
southwest OK and western north TX but taper off to only about 10-20%
along and east of I-35. The wave is expected to exit to the
northeast early on Saturday, with drier conditions now expected
by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday.
Models then show an amplification of the western US trough as it
moves into the central US later Sunday into early next week. Details
remain unclear at this range but at the very least expect additional
rain chances to return to the area. Depending how the system evolves
will also have to watch for the potential for severe weather, heavy
rain, and/or high winds if the higher amplitude model solutions come
to fruition.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
The trough bringing rain to mainly northwest Oklahoma is moving a
bit faster than forecast. IFR to potentially LIFR conditions are
possible at KCSM and KWWR, with highest chances of LIFR at KCSM
during the early morning hours. Rain should exit our CWA early
Tuesday morning, based on latest trends. Although NBM has skies
clearing relatively quickly during the day, there are signs among
some short-term models that stratus hangs around much of the day.
As it stands, expect VFR conditions by as late as mid-day.
However, there is the potential for MVFR conditions to linger over
KWWR and KCSM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 75 61 80 63 / 30 0 10 0
Hobart OK 76 60 80 61 / 20 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 79 61 83 63 / 20 0 10 0
Gage OK 73 57 80 58 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 74 60 82 62 / 30 10 10 0
Durant OK 81 59 84 63 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261027T0708.txt
