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412
FXUS64 KOUN 030725
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
225 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
- Strong/Severe thunderstorms remain possible the rest of the week.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through late Saturday.
- Turning cold this weekend with freezing temperatures possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Showers/storms have developed over the last couple of hours in parts
of west and north TX. This activity is expected to expand/spread
into the fa through the rest of the overnight into the morning
hours. Any storms will be elevated in nature but some could become
strong/severe in parts of western north TX and southern OK. The
extent of severe storms will be dependent on how far north the
better elevated instability is able to spread with some CAMs showing
this instability struggling to make it very far into the fa. Even if
enough instability for severe storms does not make it far enough
into the fa, some strong storms could still be possible with small
hail. If severe storms do occur, large hail will be the primary
concern although some gusty winds may also be possible.
The shower/storm chances are expected to diminish this afternoon
with a relative lull early this evening before the next round of
showers/storms begins late evening/overnight. WAA is expected to
develop again tonight with potentially another impulse moving
through the mid/upper flow. Widespread showers and some storms are
expected overnight into early Friday. Strong/severe storms will be
possible once again in parts of central and southern OK and western
north TX. Large hail will be the primary concern again.
With cloud cover and rain, temperatures are expected to be cool
(well below average) with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s and low/mid 50s
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Widespread showers and some storms are expected to be ongoing Friday
morning. Rain chances will diminish a little Friday
afternoon/evening but not go away before the next round of rain is
expected to begin to move in. Some strong/severe storms could
develop again Friday afternoon/evening although that is a bit
dependent on what occurs previously.
The next and final round of precipitation will be Friday night into
Saturday night as the upper low expected to develop over the Desert
Southwest and N. Mexico begins to finally approach and move across
the Southern Plains.
After multiple rounds/days of rain, rainfall totals of 1 to 3+
inches are possible by Sunday across the SE half to two-thirds of
the fa with the highest totals expected in SE and south central OK.
The rain could be heavy at times. If multiple rounds of the heavy
rain occurs in the same area and/or training the heavy
showers/storms occurs, flooding will become an increasing concern,
especially if antecedent conditions become more saturated. There is
some uncertainties on whether all the factors will come together
properly that will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch but something
later shifts will need to look at especially with seeing the results
of the previous round of rain. If a watch is needed the most likely
time will be Fri night into Sat night although could be earlier
depending on what happens.
Models show colder air moving into the region Friday night into
Saturday. This will have two impacts. The first is the potential for
snow to mix with rain Saturday and Saturday night across portions of
western and northern OK before the precipitation ends by early
Sunday. No impacts are currently expected from the snow.
The other impact of the colder air will occur across the entire fa
and that is a cold/cool weekend. Temperatures are expected to be
well below average all weekend. Saturday highs are forecast to
range from the mid 40s in NW OK to the upper 50s in SE OK. These
temperatures are around 20 degrees F below average for this time
of year. The bigger impact from temperatures will be Saturday
night when temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 20s to
mid 30s across the fa. Current forecast has temperatures at or
below freezing across northern, wester, and parts of central OK,
and parts of western north TX.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The upper low and associated trough will continue to move east
through the weekend with NW flow developing over the region by early
next week. With the pattern shift, the forecast remains dry Sunday
into the middle of next week.
The cool/cold temperatures are expected again Sunday with
temperatures remaining well below average. Highs on Sunday are
expected to reach the 50s across the fa. Another cold night,
although not as cold as Saturday night in some areas, is expected
Sunday night with lows in the 30s across the fa. Some locations will
once again drop to or just a bit below freezing.
Temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s and 70s next
week with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
northeastward from Texas into Oklahoma tonight. The highest chance
for showers/storms is across north Texas and southeast half of
Oklahoma. The most intense thunderstorms will have brief
reductions in visibility.
Shower/thunderstorm coverage should decrease from southwest to
northeast during the morning. MVFR to perhaps IFR stratus will
likely advance northward tomorrow morning into the afternoon.
Light north/northeast winds will back to the east or east-
southeast.
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 60 48 59 45 / 90 70 100 90
Hobart OK 61 45 62 41 / 60 80 80 90
Wichita Falls TX 61 48 63 47 / 80 90 90 90
Gage OK 62 42 60 33 / 30 70 80 80
Ponca City OK 59 47 60 42 / 60 60 90 70
Durant OK 62 54 66 52 / 90 80 100 100
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250403T0725.txt
421
FXUS64 KOUN 030455
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe thunderstorms possible late overnight into Thursday
morning.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through late Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Much drier air has overspread much of Oklahoma and western north
Texas, in the wake of a cold front and early morning thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, a large part of western Oklahoma and northern Texas
did not receive much rainfall yesterday or early this morning. With
a gusty west to northwest wind this afternoon, elevated fire weather
conditions are likely to persist across at least western Oklahoma
and northern Texas, as afternoon humidity drops to 15 to 20
percent. Early this evening, winds are expected to become rather
light and humidity should improve rather quickly.
Overnight, most CAMs suggest strong to severe storms will develop
across northern Texas, as a warm front begins to lift northward.
Elevated instability across western north Texas and far southern
Oklahoma could approach 2000+ J/kg. With rather strong effective
shear, large hail will certainly be possible, perhaps 2+ inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible, especially
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma Thursday morning.
Again most of the convection will be elevated with a risk of large
hail and gusty winds. It's a little difficult to time the
embedded waves within the larger scale trough to our west, but it
appears there a lull in the precipitation Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening.
Another round of showers and storms appears likely Thursday night
into Friday morning, as another embedded wave approaches the
southern Plains. It appears the synoptic front will remain south
of the area through Friday morning, so most of the convection will
be elevated with a risk of hail with some of the stronger storms.
Locally heavy rainfall may also become a problem if storms train
northwest of a stationary front across southeastern Oklahoma.
Another round of showers and storms will impact the southern Plains
late Friday into Saturday. The additional rainfall during this
period may result in a better chance of excessive rainfall,
especially across south central/southeastern Oklahoma.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Models show main upper trough finally shifting east of the area late
this weekend/early next week. At the sfc, a cold front moves across
the area Fri night/Saturday with colder air moving into the region.
Showers/storms will continue across the fa Saturday with
precipitation chances slowly ending Sat. night/Sunday. By the end of
the weekend several inches of rain are expected across portions of
the fa, with the highest amounts expected to be generally in SE
parts of the fa. The lowest amounts are currently expected across
western and northern parts of the area with half an inch to an inch
of rain possible over the several days. With the cold air moving
into the region, some snow could also mix with the rain in western
parts of the area Saturday night before the precipitation ends but
no impacts are expected from the snow.
The colder air will lead to a cool/cold weekend with well below
average temperatures. On Saturday, highs are expected to range from
the upper 40s (NW OK) to low 60s (SE OK). Highs will be in the 50s
Sunday. Unfortunately we are not done with the freezing
temperatures. Low temperatures at or below freezing are expected
across the NW third or so of the fa both Saturday and Sunday nights.
Models show generally NW flow aloft next week leading to a dry
forecast into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually warm after the weekend but remain
cool/mild for at least the first half of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
northeastward from Texas into Oklahoma tonight. The highest chance
for showers/storms is across north Texas and southeast half of
Oklahoma. The most intense thunderstorms will have brief
reductions in visibility.
Shower/thunderstorm coverage should decrease from southwest to
northeast during the morning. MVFR to perhaps IFR stratus will
likely advance northward tomorrow morning into the afternoon.
Light north/northeast winds will back to the east or east-
southeast.
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 51 60 48 58 / 20 70 70 100
Hobart OK 48 63 46 60 / 20 40 80 90
Wichita Falls TX 51 63 50 62 / 50 50 80 90
Gage OK 45 64 43 58 / 40 40 60 80
Ponca City OK 49 62 47 59 / 20 70 40 90
Durant OK 55 66 56 71 / 60 90 80 100
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250403T0455.txt
548
FXUS64 KOUN 022345
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe thunderstorms possible late overnight into Thursday
morning.
- Elevated fire weather conditions possible for the remainder of this
afternoon in western OK and western north TX.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through late Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Much drier air has overspread much of Oklahoma and western north
Texas, in the wake of a cold front and early morning thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, a large part of western Oklahoma and northern Texas
did not receive much rainfall yesterday or early this morning. With
a gusty west to northwest wind this afternoon, elevated fire weather
conditions are likely to persist across at least western Oklahoma
and northern Texas, as afternoon humidity drops to 15 to 20
percent. Early this evening, winds are expected to become rather
light and humidity should improve rather quickly.
Overnight, most CAMs suggest strong to severe storms will develop
across northern Texas, as a warm front begins to lift northward.
Elevated instability across western north Texas and far southern
Oklahoma could approach 2000+ J/kg. With rather strong effective
shear, large hail will certainly be possible, perhaps 2+ inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible, especially
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma Thursday morning.
Again most of the convection will be elevated with a risk of large
hail and gusty winds. It's a little difficult to time the
embedded waves within the larger scale trough to our west, but it
appears there a lull in the precipitation Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening.
Another round of showers and storms appears likely Thursday night
into Friday morning, as another embedded wave approaches the
southern Plains. It appears the synoptic front will remain south
of the area through Friday morning, so most of the convection will
be elevated with a risk of hail with some of the stronger storms.
Locally heavy rainfall may also become a problem if storms train
northwest of a stationary front across southeastern Oklahoma.
Another round of showers and storms will impact the southern Plains
late Friday into Saturday. The additional rainfall during this
period may result in a better chance of excessive rainfall,
especially across south central/southeastern Oklahoma.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Models show main upper trough finally shifting east of the area late
this weekend/early next week. At the sfc, a cold front moves across
the area Fri night/Saturday with colder air moving into the region.
Showers/storms will continue across the fa Saturday with
precipitation chances slowly ending Sat. night/Sunday. By the end of
the weekend several inches of rain are expected across portions of
the fa, with the highest amounts expected to be generally in SE
parts of the fa. The lowest amounts are currently expected across
western and northern parts of the area with half an inch to an inch
of rain possible over the several days. With the cold air moving
into the region, some snow could also mix with the rain in western
parts of the area Saturday night before the precipitation ends but
no impacts are expected from the snow.
The colder air will lead to a cool/cold weekend with well below
average temperatures. On Saturday, highs are expected to range from
the upper 40s (NW OK) to low 60s (SE OK). Highs will be in the 50s
Sunday. Unfortunately we are not done with the freezing
temperatures. Low temperatures at or below freezing are expected
across the NW third or so of the fa both Saturday and Sunday nights.
Models show generally NW flow aloft next week leading to a dry
forecast into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually warm after the weekend but remain
cool/mild for at least the first half of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue through this
evening.
By late tonight into tomorrow morning, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move northward from Texas. The
highest chance for showers/storms is across southeast Oklahoma
(KDUA), decreasing in coverage to the northwest (where PROB30s
were included). MVFR to briefly IFR stratus will likely advance
northward tomorrow morning.
Westerly winds will back to the north, northeast, and then east
through the TAF period at most terminals.
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 51 60 48 58 / 20 70 70 100
Hobart OK 48 63 46 60 / 20 40 80 90
Wichita Falls TX 51 63 50 62 / 50 50 80 90
Gage OK 45 64 43 58 / 40 40 60 80
Ponca City OK 49 62 47 59 / 20 70 40 90
Durant OK 55 66 56 71 / 60 90 80 100
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250402T2345.txt
495
FXUS64 KOUN 021851
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
151 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe thunderstorms possible late overnight into Thursday
morning.
- Elevated fire weather conditions possible for the remainder of this
afternoon in western OK and western north TX.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through late Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Much drier air has overspread much of Oklahoma and western north
Texas, in the wake of a cold front and early morning thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, a large part of western Oklahoma and northern Texas
did not receive much rainfall yesterday or early this morning. With
a gusty west to northwest wind this afternoon, elevated fire weather
conditions are likely to persist across at least western Oklahoma
and northern Texas, as afternoon humidity drops to 15 to 20
percent. Early this evening, winds are expected to become rather
light and humidity should improve rather quickly.
Overnight, most CAMs suggest strong to severe storms will develop
across northern Texas, as a warm front begins to lift northward.
Elevated instability across western north Texas and far southern
Oklahoma could approach 2000+ J/kg. With rather strong effective
shear, large hail will certainly be possible, perhaps 2+ inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible, especially
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma Thursday morning.
Again most of the convection will be elevated with a risk of large
hail and gusty winds. It's a little difficult to time the
embedded waves within the larger scale trough to our west, but it
appears there a lull in the precipitation Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening.
Another round of showers and storms appears likely Thursday night
into Friday morning, as another embedded wave approaches the
southern Plains. It appears the synoptic front will remain south
of the area through Friday morning, so most of the convection will
be elevated with a risk of hail with some of the stronger storms.
Locally heavy rainfall may also become a problem if storms train
northwest of a stationary front across southeastern Oklahoma.
Another round of showers and storms will impact the southern Plains
late Friday into Saturday. The additional rainfall during this
period may result in a better chance of excessive rainfall,
especially across south central/southeastern Oklahoma.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Models show main upper trough finally shifting east of the area late
this weekend/early next week. At the sfc, a cold front moves across
the area Fri night/Saturday with colder air moving into the region.
Showers/storms will continue across the fa Saturday with
precipitation chances slowly ending Sat. night/Sunday. By the end of
the weekend several inches of rain are expected across portions of
the fa, with the highest amounts expected to be generally in SE
parts of the fa. The lowest amounts are currently expected across
western and northern parts of the area with half an inch to an inch
of rain possible over the several days. With the cold air moving
into the region, some snow could also mix with the rain in western
parts of the area Saturday night before the precipitation ends but
no impacts are expected from the snow.
The colder air will lead to a cool/cold weekend with well below
average temperatures. On Saturday, highs are expected to range from
the upper 40s (NW OK) to low 60s (SE OK). Highs will be in the 50s
Sunday. Unfortunately we are not done with the freezing
temperatures. Low temperatures at or below freezing are expected
across the NW third or so of the fa both Saturday and Sunday nights.
Models show generally NW flow aloft next week leading to a dry
forecast into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually warm after the weekend but remain
cool/mild for at least the first half of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Generally breezy westerly to northwesterly winds will decrease
tonight and become more variable in direction. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move up from central Texas into
north Texas and southern and parts of central Oklahoma early
Thursday morning. Along with this, MVFR ceilings will likely
affect KDUA and approach KOKC, KOUN, KSPS, and KLAW by mid to late
morning.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 51 60 48 58 / 20 70 70 100
Hobart OK 48 63 46 60 / 20 40 80 90
Wichita Falls TX 51 63 50 62 / 50 50 80 90
Gage OK 45 64 43 58 / 40 40 60 80
Ponca City OK 49 62 47 59 / 20 70 40 90
Durant OK 55 66 56 71 / 60 90 80 100
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250402T1851.txt
641
FXUS64 KOUN 021709
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe thunderstorms possible overnight into Thursday. Large
hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist with
strongest storms.
- Elevated fire weather conditions possible this afternoon in
western OK and western north TX.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend.
Strong to severe storms will remain possible through at least
the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A cold front will continue to move across the area through the
morning hours. Moisture continues to advect northward across the
area with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as the KS-OK border early
this morning and upper 60s/around 70 dewpoints in southern parts of
the fa. As the front interacts with this moist airmass, at least
some thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front.
Some models are also showing some storms developing in the warm,
moist sector ahead of the dryline and south of the front. There is
currently a strong cap so amount/extent of storms and whether they
are surface based or not are questions but some models show the cap
eroding a bit as the early morning hours progress. The moist,
unstable airmass will make severe storms possible. Large/very large
hail and damaging winds will be possible. If storms can become
surface based, then tornadoes will also be possible, especially with
any discrete supercells. The chances for showers/storms will
diminish later this morning.
Another round of showers/storms is expected again later this evening
and overnight as a warm front lifts north into parts of the fa.
Moist airmass advecting northward with the WAA will aid in the
shower/storm development. The highest chances will be generally
along/south of I-40 with this round. Strong/severe storms will be
possible again tonight into Thursday with large hail and damaging
winds the main concerns.
Despite the rain chances, elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible this afternoon in parts of western OK and western north TX
that do not receive any rainfall today. Drier air will move into
this area behind the front leading to low RH (10-15%). The low RH,
mild temperatures, somewhat breezy winds and dry vegetation will
lead to the elevated conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Southwest flow aloft will continue Thursday and Friday continuing
the wet pattern across the area.
Showers/storms Wednesday night will continue through the day on
Thursday with lingering potential for severe storms. This round of
showers/storms is expected to diminish Thursday afternoon/evening.
Another round with rain chances becoming widespread again is
expected to begin Thursday night/early Friday and continue into
Friday night as impulses continue to move through the flow. Some of
these storms could become strong to severe as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Models show main upper trough finally shifting east of the area late
this weekend/early next week. At the sfc, a cold front moves across
the area Fri night/Saturday with colder air moving into the region.
Showers/storms will continue across the fa Saturday with
precipitation chances slowly ending Sat. night/Sunday. By the end of
the weekend several inches of rain are expected across portions of
the fa, with the highest amounts expected to be generally in SE
parts of the fa. The lowest amounts are currently expected across
western and northern parts of the area with half an inch to an inch
of rain possible over the several days. With the cold air moving
into the region, some snow could also mix with the rain in western
parts of the area Saturday night before the precipitation ends but
no impacts are expected from the snow.
The colder air will lead to a cool/cold weekend with well below
average temperatures. On Saturday, highs are expected to range from
the upper 40s (NW OK) to low 60s (SE OK). Highs will be in the 50s
Sunday. Unfortunately we are not done with the freezing
temperatures. Low temperatures at or below freezing are expected
across the NW third or so of the fa both Saturday and Sunday nights.
Models show generally NW flow aloft next week leading to a dry
forecast into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually warm after the weekend but remain
cool/mild for at least the first half of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Generally breezy westerly to northwesterly winds will decrease
tonight and become more variable in direction. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move up from central Texas into
north Texas and southern and parts of central Oklahoma early
Thursday morning. Along with this, MVFR ceilings will likely
affect KDUA and approach KOKC, KOUN, KSPS, and KLAW by mid to late
morning.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 51 62 50 59 / 50 50 60 100
Hobart OK 49 67 48 61 / 50 20 70 80
Wichita Falls TX 52 66 51 64 / 70 40 80 90
Gage OK 44 67 44 58 / 60 20 60 90
Ponca City OK 49 63 48 61 / 30 50 30 90
Durant OK 57 69 58 72 / 80 90 80 100
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250402T1709.txt
286
FXUS64 KOUN 021113
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
613 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe thunderstorms possible through the morning and again overnight
into Thursday. Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk
will exist with strongest storms.
- Elevated fire weather conditions possible this afternoon in
western OK and western north TX.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend.
Strong to severe storms will remain possible through at least
the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A cold front will continue to move across the area through the
morning hours. Moisture continues to advect northward across the
area with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as the KS-OK border early
this morning and upper 60s/around 70 dewpoints in southern parts of
the fa. As the front interacts with this moist airmass, at least
some thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front.
Some models are also showing some storms developing in the warm,
moist sector ahead of the dryline and south of the front. There is
currently a strong cap so amount/extent of storms and whether they
are surface based or not are questions but some models show the cap
eroding a bit as the early morning hours progress. The moist,
unstable airmass will make severe storms possible. Large/very large
hail and damaging winds will be possible. If storms can become
surface based, then tornadoes will also be possible, especially with
any discrete supercells. The chances for showers/storms will
diminish later this morning.
Another round of showers/storms is expected again later this evening
and overnight as a warm front lifts north into parts of the fa.
Moist airmass advecting northward with the WAA will aid in the
shower/storm development. The highest chances will be generally
along/south of I-40 with this round. Strong/severe storms will be
possible again tonight into Thursday with large hail and damaging
winds the main concerns.
Despite the rain chances, elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible this afternoon in parts of western OK and western north TX
that do not receive any rainfall today. Drier air will move into
this area behind the front leading to low RH (10-15%). The low RH,
mild temperatures, somewhat breezy winds and dry vegetation will
lead to the elevated conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Southwest flow aloft will continue Thursday and Friday continuing
the wet pattern across the area.
Showers/storms Wednesday night will continue through the day on
Thursday with lingering potential for severe storms. This round of
showers/storms is expected to diminish Thursday afternoon/evening.
Another round with rain chances becoming widespread again is
expected to begin Thursday night/early Friday and continue into
Friday night as impulses continue to move through the flow. Some of
these storms could become strong to severe as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Models show main upper trough finally shifting east of the area late
this weekend/early next week. At the sfc, a cold front moves across
the area Fri night/Saturday with colder air moving into the region.
Showers/storms will continue across the fa Saturday with
precipitation chances slowly ending Sat. night/Sunday. By the end of
the weekend several inches of rain are expected across portions of
the fa, with the highest amounts expected to be generally in SE
parts of the fa. The lowest amounts are currently expected across
western and northern parts of the area with half an inch to an inch
of rain possible over the several days. With the cold air moving
into the region, some snow could also mix with the rain in western
parts of the area Saturday night before the precipitation ends but
no impacts are expected from the snow.
The colder air will lead to a cool/cold weekend with well below
average temperatures. On Saturday, highs are expected to range from
the upper 40s (NW OK) to low 60s (SE OK). Highs will be in the 50s
Sunday. Unfortunately we are not done with the freezing
temperatures. Low temperatures at or below freezing are expected
across the NW third or so of the fa both Saturday and Sunday nights.
Models show generally NW flow aloft next week leading to a dry
forecast into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually warm after the weekend but remain
cool/mild for at least the first half of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A southeast moving line of storms has cleared most of the TAF
sites and will impact KDUA between 13z and 15z. Once this moves
through, the TAFs will be mainly a wind forecast with a couple of
wind shifts and periods of breeziness (confidence in direction and
speeds is somewhat lower than normal).
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 74 51 62 50 / 0 50 50 60
Hobart OK 74 49 67 48 / 0 50 20 70
Wichita Falls TX 79 52 66 51 / 0 70 40 80
Gage OK 70 44 67 44 / 0 60 20 60
Ponca City OK 72 49 63 48 / 0 30 50 30
Durant OK 82 57 69 58 / 50 80 90 80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250402T1113.txt
