Home
546
FXUS64 KOUN 161110
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
- Widespread hard freeze this morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of this week into the weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.
- Fire risk continues, especially Tuesday, with no precipitation
chances through at least the next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Chilly temperatures will be the story this morning with breezy north
winds producing wind chills in the teens for much of the area with
some single digits across northern OK. Northerly flow stays in place
through the day as the upper trough departs to the east. Highs will
top out in the mid 40s to mid 50s by this afternoon with mostly
sunny skies. Lows tonight will once again drop below freezing for
much of the area, but lighter winds will keep it from feeling quite
as cold.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Tuesday and Wednesday will be transition days as a large upper ridge
begins to build across the western and central US. Dry return flow
could lead to elevated to near critical fire conditions Tuesday
afternoon across much of the area as winds increase from the south
and afternoon relative humidity drops below 20%. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Tuesday for most areas west of I-35. Highs
Tuesday will be in the mid 60s (east) to mid 70s (west), with most
areas then adding another 10 degrees to highs Wednesday afternoon.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The warming trend will continue through the end of the week into the
weekend as the upper ridge to our west builds even further, with 500
mb heights forecast to rise above record values across the
southwestern US by Friday into Saturday. NBM continues to show
widespread 90+ degree temperatures Thursday into the weekend as
850 mb temps soar to 20-25C. Daily record highs are likely to be
set and the potential is there for one or more of our climate
sites to set all time record high temperatures for the month of
March. Greater uncertainty remains on Sunday as some ensemble
members show a cold front attempting to move into northern OK,
though fewer members are showing this scenario than there were
yesterday. Disagreement then increases farther into early next
week on whether or not the upper ridge breaks down or quickly
rebuilds across the western US. Regardless, this pattern will
offer little to no opportunities for rainfall as Gulf moisture
remains cutoff and our area sits under dry west/northwest flow
aloft.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Skies have become clear this morning and are likely to remain
mostly or completely clear for the next 24 hours. Winds have
settled down markedly from yesterday's windy conditions, but we
will still see frequent 25-30 knot wind gusts from the north during
the day today. After sunset, winds will drop dramatically and
shift to light southerly around midnight.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 46 27 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 51 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 52 31 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 50 29 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 42 23 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 48 29 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for OKZ004>006-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260316T1110.txt
331
FXUS64 KOUN 160708
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
208 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...New NEAR TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 207 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
- Widespread hard freeze this morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of this week into the weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.
- Fire risk continues, especially Tuesday, with no precipitation
chances through at least the next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Chilly temperatures will be the story this morning with breezy north
winds producing wind chills in the teens for much of the area with
some single digits across northern OK. Northerly flow stays in place
through the day as the upper trough departs to the east. Highs will
top out in the mid 40s to mid 50s by this afternoon with mostly
sunny skies. Lows tonight will once again drop below freezing for
much of the area, but lighter winds will keep it from feeling quite
as cold.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Tuesday and Wednesday will be transition days as a large upper ridge
begins to build across the western and central US. Dry return flow
could lead to elevated to near critical fire conditions Tuesday
afternoon across much of the area as winds increase from the south
and afternoon relative humidity drops below 20%. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Tuesday for most areas west of I-35. Highs
Tuesday will be in the mid 60s (east) to mid 70s (west), with most
areas then adding another 10 degrees to highs Wednesday afternoon.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The warming trend will continue through the end of the week into the
weekend as the upper ridge to our west builds even further, with 500
mb heights forecast to rise above record values across the
southwestern US by Friday into Saturday. NBM continues to show
widespread 90+ degree temperatures Thursday into the weekend as
850 mb temps soar to 20-25C. Daily record highs are likely to be
set and the potential is there for one or more of our climate
sites to set all time record high temperatures for the month of
March. Greater uncertainty remains on Sunday as some ensemble
members show a cold front attempting to move into northern OK,
though fewer members are showing this scenario than there were
yesterday. Disagreement then increases farther into early next
week on whether or not the upper ridge breaks down or quickly
rebuilds across the western US. Regardless, this pattern will
offer little to no opportunities for rainfall as Gulf moisture
remains cutoff and our area sits under dry west/northwest flow
aloft.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
All terminals are expected to remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period. Gusty north surface winds will persist
between 30-40 kts through 12Z decreasing 20-30 kts between 12-18Z.
Sustained wind gusts expected to decrease 15-20 kts by 07-08Z.
Surface winds this afternoon between 18-23Z will remain northerly
around 15 gusting to 20 mph. By 00Z wind gusts will diminish with
north winds decreasing to 5 kts. By 05Z surface winds will stay
light but will have veered southeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 46 27 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 51 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 52 31 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 50 29 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 42 23 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 48 29 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for OKZ004>006-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260316T0708.txt
302
FXUS64 KOUN 160706
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
206 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
- Widespread hard freeze this morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.
- Fire risk continues, especially Tuesday, with no precipitation
chances through at least the next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Chilly temperatures will be the story this morning with breezy north
winds producing wind chills in the teens for much of the area with
some single digits across northern OK. Northerly flow stays in place
through the day as the upper trough departs to the east. Highs will
top out in the mid 40s to mid 50s by this afternoon with mostly
sunny skies. Lows tonight will once again drop below freezing for
much of the area, but lighter winds will keep it from feeling quite
as cold.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Tuesday and Wednesday will be transition days as a large upper ridge
begins to build across the western and central US. Dry return flow
could lead to elevated to near critical fire conditions Tuesday
afternoon across much of the area as winds increase from the south
and afternoon relative humidity drops below 20%. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Tuesday for most areas west of I-35. Highs
Tuesday will be in the mid 60s (east) to mid 70s (west), with most
areas then adding another 10 degrees to highs Wednesday afternoon.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The warming trend will continue through the end of the week into the
weekend as the upper ridge to our west builds even further, with 500
mb heights forecast to rise above record values across the
southwestern US by Friday into Saturday. NBM continues to show
widespread 90+ degree temperatures Thursday into the weekend as
850 mb temps soar to 20-25C. Daily record highs are likely to be
set and the potential is there for one or more of our climate
sites to set all time record high temperatures for the month of
March. Greater uncertainty remains on Sunday as some ensemble
members show a cold front attempting to move into northern OK,
though fewer members are showing this scenario than there were
yesterday. Disagreement then increases farther into early next
week on whether or not the upper ridge breaks down or quickly
rebuilds across the western US. Regardless, this pattern will
offer little to no opportunities for rainfall as Gulf moisture
remains cutoff and our area sits under dry west/northwest flow
aloft.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
All terminals are expected to remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period. Gusty north surface winds will persist
between 30-40 kts through 12Z decreasing 20-30 kts between 12-18Z.
Sustained wind gusts expected to decrease 15-20 kts by 07-08Z.
Surface winds this afternoon between 18-23Z will remain northerly
around 15 gusting to 20 mph. By 00Z wind gusts will diminish with
north winds decreasing to 5 kts. By 05Z surface winds will stay
light but will have veered southeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 46 27 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 51 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 52 31 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 50 29 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 42 23 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 48 29 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for OKZ004>006-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260316T0706.txt
816
FXUS64 KOUN 160354
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Very windy through early evening with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph.
- Near-crticial to critical fire weather through this evening,
mainly due to strong winds
- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A rather busy afternoon with several ongoing hazards, such as:
strong damaging winds, wildfires, and blowing dust. The strongest
cold air advection is beginning to shift into central and southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas. This may shift the stronger wind
gusts away form northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon.
Otherwise, wind gusts over 55 mph will remain possible before
diminishing into the 35 to 40 mph range early this evening. The
reduced wind speeds will help elevate wildfire behavior and low
visibility with blowing dust.
A hard freeze is expected across the area tonight, with overnight
lows mainly in the 20s. The wind will remain breezy, so wind chill
values will range from the single digits to upper teens by early
Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday with surface high pressure
building south of the area. A northerly wind will become southeast
and south Monday night into Tuesday. Temperature will rebound
quickly on Tuesday with afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s
to lower 70s (most areas). With dry return flow and a breezy
southerly wind, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
will develop Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end
of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb)
builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to
point towards the potential for record heat across the area with
widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the
question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably,
even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March
high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th
percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area
and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread
increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to
bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but
confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time.
Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region
precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next
7 days if not longer.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
All terminals are expected to remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period. Gusty north surface winds will persist
between 30-40 kts through 12Z decreasing 20-30 kts between 12-18Z.
Sustained wind gusts expected to decrease 15-20 kts by 07-08Z.
Surface winds this afternoon between 18-23Z will remain northerly
around 15 gusting to 20 mph. By 00Z wind gusts will diminish with
north winds decreasing to 5 kts. By 05Z surface winds will stay
light but will have veered southeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 24 46 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 22 51 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 27 53 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 19 50 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 20 43 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 29 48 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260316T0354.txt
721
FXUS64 KOUN 152322
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Very windy through early evening with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph.
- Near-crticial to critical fire weather through this evening,
mainly due to strong winds
- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A rather busy afternoon with several ongoing hazards, such as:
strong damaging winds, wildfires, and blowing dust. The strongest
cold air advection is beginning to shift into central and southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas. This may shift the stronger wind
gusts away form northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon.
Otherwise, wind gusts over 55 mph will remain possible before
diminishing into the 35 to 40 mph range early this evening. The
reduced wind speeds will help elevate wildfire behavior and low
visibility with blowing dust.
A hard freeze is expected across the area tonight, with overnight
lows mainly in the 20s. The wind will remain breezy, so wind chill
values will range from the single digits to upper teens by early
Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday with surface high pressure
building south of the area. A northerly wind will become southeast
and south Monday night into Tuesday. Temperature will rebound
quickly on Tuesday with afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s
to lower 70s (most areas). With dry return flow and a breezy
southerly wind, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
will develop Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end
of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb)
builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to
point towards the potential for record heat across the area with
widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the
question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably,
even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March
high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th
percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area
and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread
increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to
bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but
confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time.
Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region
precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next
7 days if not longer.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
All terminals expected to remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period. The main issue impacting our terminals
overnight will be the sustained wind speeds and strong gusts at
the surface as the wind direction will stay north-northwesterly
through the forecast period. The surface pressure gradient starts
to weaken by 12Z as high pressure starts building in from the
west with sustained winds decreasing 10-15 kts. A north to south
aligned low-level jet will persist tonight eventually weakening by
18Z. Vertical mixing likely persist through much of tonight
keeping wind gusts at 30-40 kts at least through 10Z after which
some decoupling could reduce them 20-30 kts through 18Z. After
18Z mixing begins although weaker flow at the mixing height
keeping gusts at 15-20 kts through 23Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 24 46 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 22 51 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 27 53 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 19 50 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 20 43 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 29 48 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>017-021>023-033>039-044-045.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030-
033>040-044-045.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-041>043-
046>048-050>052.
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260315T2322.txt
296
FXUS64 KOUN 151858
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
158 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Very windy through early evening with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph.
- Near-crticial to critical fire weather through this evening,
mainly due to strong winds
- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A rather busy afternoon with several ongoing hazards, such as:
strong damaging winds, wildfires, and blowing dust. The strongest
cold air advection is beginning to shift into central and southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas. This may shift the stronger wind
gusts away form northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon.
Otherwise, wind gusts over 55 mph will remain possible before
diminishing into the 35 to 40 mph range early this evening. The
reduced wind speeds will help elevate wildfire behavior and low
visibility with blowing dust.
A hard freeze is expected across the area tonight, with overnight
lows mainly in the 20s. The wind will remain breezy, so wind chill
values will range from the single digits to upper teens by early
Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday with surface high pressure
building south of the area. A northerly wind will become southeast
and south Monday night into Tuesday. Temperature will rebound
quickly on Tuesday with afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s
to lower 70s (most areas). With dry return flow and a breezy
southerly wind, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
will develop Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end
of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb)
builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to
point towards the potential for record heat across the area with
widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the
question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably,
even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March
high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th
percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area
and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread
increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to
bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but
confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time.
Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region
precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next
7 days if not longer.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Very strong northwest winds with occasional gusts to 50 knots will
continue through the afternoon at most sites. The wind will
diminish some this evening, but will remain gusty 30 to 35 mph
through the evening. A band of mid-level clouds across the
northern half to third of Oklahoma may result in some light
precipitation (including very light snow). The strong winds will
also cause blowing dust which may reduce visibility to around 1-2
miles through 1Z Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 24 46 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 22 51 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 27 53 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 19 50 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 20 43 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 29 48 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>017-021>023-033>039-044-045.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030-
033>040-044-045.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-041>043-
046>048-050>052.
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260315T1858.txt
475
FXUS64 KOUN 151702
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1159 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Very windy today with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph expected.
- Near-crticial to critical fire weather today, mainly due to
strong winds
- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Made a quick update to first period grids to better support
potential fire weather operations. Nudged grids towards the HRRR
which (a) brings a sharper increase to the wind speeds at the
front moves through, (b) brings in lower dewpoints quicker, and
(c) cools temperatures are little quicker, at least in the north
and west with this initial surge of cooler air. Although this
somewhat cooler, somewhat lower dewpoints act to offset each
other, the net effect was that forecast minimum humidity values
are a little lower, especially in the southwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Quite mild conditions are in place early this morning as a strong
low-level jet is keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Surface
analysis shows a cold front across southern Nebraska that is
forecast to race southward this morning as a trough amplifies
across the central US. Very strong north winds and falling
temperatures are expected behind the front today. Sustained speeds
of 30-40 mph are likely with gusts over 60 mph at times,
especially across western OK into western north TX. Blowing dust
is also likely for these areas as much of the region upstream has
seen little recent rainfall and vegetation remains dormant. A
High Wind Warning is in effect for most of the area outside
southeast OK, where a Wind Advisory is in effect for gusts of 40
to 50 mph.
Fire weather will also be a concern today as even with falling
temperatures such intense winds and dry fuels will make it more
difficult to deal with any fires that start. Perhaps the greatest
overall fire risk will be across southwest OK and western north TX
where near-critical to critical fire conditions are expected as
temperatures will be a bit warmer and relative humidity a bit
lower for these areas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of
the area along and west of I-35.
Winds will only gradually decrease this evening as it appears the
boundary layer will take a couple hours to fully decouple after
sunset. Strong cold advection will make for a chilly night tonight
with lows dropping well into the 20s for most of the area, with some
teens possible in northern/northwestern OK. Combined with a
lingering northerly breeze, it will feel 10-15 degrees colder in
most spots.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The area will remain under the influence of surface ridging Monday
with north-northwest winds keeping temperatures in the mid 40s to
mid 50s for highs. Winds will veer back to the south by Tuesday,
helping boost highs back above average into the 60s and 70s. Will
have to watch for a fire weather risk Tuesday with potential for a
dry return flow setup creating elevated to near-critical fire
weather.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end
of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb)
builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to
point towards the potential for record heat across the area with
widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the
question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably,
even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March
high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th
percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area
and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread
increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to
bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but
confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time.
Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region
precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next
7 days if not longer.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Very strong northwest winds with occasional gusts to 50 knots will
continue through the afternoon at most sites. The wind will
diminish some this evening, but will remain gusty 30 to 35 mph
through the evening. A band of mid-level clouds across the
northern half to third of Oklahoma may result in some light
precipitation (including very light snow). The strong winds will
also cause blowing dust which may reduce visibility to around 1-2
miles through 1Z Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 24 48 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 22 52 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 28 53 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 19 51 30 74 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 20 43 24 65 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 30 49 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030-
033>040-044-045.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-
009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-041>043-
046>048-050>052.
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-
087-088.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260315T1702.txt
052
FXUS64 KOUN 151423
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
923 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Very windy today with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph expected.
- Near-crticial to critical fire weather today, mainly due to
strong winds
- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Made a quick update to first period grids to better support
potential fire weather operations. Nudged grids towards the HRRR
which (a) brings a sharper increase to the wind speeds at the
front moves through, (b) brings in lower dewpoints quicker, and
(c) cools temperatures are little quicker, at least in the north
and west with this initial surge of cooler air. Although this
somewhat cooler, somewhat lower dewpoints act to offset each
other, the net effect was that forecast minimum humidity values
are a little lower, especially in the southwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Quite mild conditions are in place early this morning as a strong
low-level jet is keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Surface
analysis shows a cold front across southern Nebraska that is
forecast to race southward this morning as a trough amplifies
across the central US. Very strong north winds and falling
temperatures are expected behind the front today. Sustained speeds
of 30-40 mph are likely with gusts over 60 mph at times,
especially across western OK into western north TX. Blowing dust
is also likely for these areas as much of the region upstream has
seen little recent rainfall and vegetation remains dormant. A
High Wind Warning is in effect for most of the area outside
southeast OK, where a Wind Advisory is in effect for gusts of 40
to 50 mph.
Fire weather will also be a concern today as even with falling
temperatures such intense winds and dry fuels will make it more
difficult to deal with any fires that start. Perhaps the greatest
overall fire risk will be across southwest OK and western north TX
where near-critical to critical fire conditions are expected as
temperatures will be a bit warmer and relative humidity a bit
lower for these areas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of
the area along and west of I-35.
Winds will only gradually decrease this evening as it appears the
boundary layer will take a couple hours to fully decouple after
sunset. Strong cold advection will make for a chilly night tonight
with lows dropping well into the 20s for most of the area, with some
teens possible in northern/northwestern OK. Combined with a
lingering northerly breeze, it will feel 10-15 degrees colder in
most spots.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The area will remain under the influence of surface ridging Monday
with north-northwest winds keeping temperatures in the mid 40s to
mid 50s for highs. Winds will veer back to the south by Tuesday,
helping boost highs back above average into the 60s and 70s. Will
have to watch for a fire weather risk Tuesday with potential for a
dry return flow setup creating elevated to near-critical fire
weather.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end
of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb)
builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to
point towards the potential for record heat across the area with
widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the
question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably,
even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March
high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th
percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area
and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread
increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to
bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but
confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time.
Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region
precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next
7 days if not longer.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Primary factor for aviation will be a powerful cold front that
will move through the area between 12Z and 18Z. Prior to FROPA,
MVFR to IFR skies will be noted at DUA and perhaps briefly as far
north as the OKC metro. Prior to frontal passage, extreme winds
with gusts upwards of 45-50 knots will occur for the rest of the
daytime and last into the early part of the night. Blowing dust
could be a factor in reducing visibilities, especially in
northwest Oklahoma. Winds will become less-gusty overnight but
remain from the north-northwest.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 68 24 48 28 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 61 22 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 73 28 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 52 19 51 30 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 60 20 43 24 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 78 30 49 29 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030-
033>040-044-045.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-041>043-
046>048-050>052.
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260315T1423.txt
436
FXUS64 KOUN 151126
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Very windy today with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph expected.
- Near-crticial to critical fire weather today, mainly due to
strong winds
- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.
- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend,
with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Quite mild conditions are in place early this morning as a strong
low-level jet is keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Surface
analysis shows a cold front across southern Nebraska that is
forecast to race southward this morning as a trough amplifies
across the central US. Very strong north winds and falling
temperatures are expected behind the front today. Sustained speeds
of 30-40 mph are likely with gusts over 60 mph at times,
especially across western OK into western north TX. Blowing dust
is also likely for these areas as much of the region upstream has
seen little recent rainfall and vegetation remains dormant. A
High Wind Warning is in effect for most of the area outside
southeast OK, where a Wind Advisory is in effect for gusts of 40
to 50 mph.
Fire weather will also be a concern today as even with falling
temperatures such intense winds and dry fuels will make it more
difficult to deal with any fires that start. Perhaps the greatest
overall fire risk will be across southwest OK and western north TX
where near-critical to critical fire conditions are expected as
temperatures will be a bit warmer and relative humidity a bit
lower for these areas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of
the area along and west of I-35.
Winds will only gradually decrease this evening as it appears the
boundary layer will take a couple hours to fully decouple after
sunset. Strong cold advection will make for a chilly night tonight
with lows dropping well into the 20s for most of the area, with some
teens possible in northern/northwestern OK. Combined with a
lingering northerly breeze, it will feel 10-15 degrees colder in
most spots.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The area will remain under the influence of surface ridging Monday
with north-northwest winds keeping temperatures in the mid 40s to
mid 50s for highs. Winds will veer back to the south by Tuesday,
helping boost highs back above average into the 60s and 70s. Will
have to watch for a fire weather risk Tuesday with potential for a
dry return flow setup creating elevated to near-critical fire
weather.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end
of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb)
builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to
point towards the potential for record heat across the area with
widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the
question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably,
even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March
high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th
percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area
and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread
increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to
bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but
confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time.
Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region
precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next
7 days if not longer.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Primary factor for aviation will be a powerful cold front that
will move through the area between 12Z and 18Z. Prior to FROPA,
MVFR to IFR skies will be noted at DUA and perhaps briefly as far
north as the OKC metro. Prior to frontal passage, extreme winds
with gusts upwards of 45-50 knots will occur for the rest of the
daytime and last into the early part of the night. Blowing dust
could be a factor in reducing visibilities, especially in
northwest Oklahoma. Winds will become less-gusty overnight but
remain from the north-northwest.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 67 24 48 28 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 65 22 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 72 28 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 51 19 51 30 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 58 20 43 24 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 77 30 49 29 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030-
033>040-044-045.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
OKZ004>006-009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-041>043-
046>048-050>052.
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260315T1126.txt
