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553
FXUS64 KOUN 261136
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
- A cold front will bring breezy north winds Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- The season's first freeze for northwestern Oklahoma is
possible Thursday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
The upper level low will continue to track eastward today with
precipitation chances ending from west to east across the forecast
area. Some lingering wrap around moisture may allow light rain
showers to persist through the early afternoon hours across mostly
the eastern/southeastern portions of the forecast area. With recent
wetting rains and continued low-level moisture, patchy areas of fog
may develop. Additionally, low clouds are expected through the day
but some areas of clouds may break and allow for peeks of sunshine.
Thus, temperatures under the low clouds will likely remain capped in
the lower to mid 60s, which areas across southern Oklahoma and into
western north Texas may warm a bit higher in to the upper 60s to
lower 70s thanks to some sun.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Low-level moisture will stick around Monday with low clouds
persisting through much of the day. Thus, highs will remain in the
60s to lower 70s. Areas across western north Texas may see a lesser
extent of low clouds and peeks of sunshine that may warm
temperatures into the 70s. A shortwave will dig into the Plains in
the wake of the upper low and bring a cold front across the forecast
area by Tuesday. Breezy post-frontal north winds are expected by mid-
day Tuesday before diminishing into the evening hours. Light rain
showers and a few storms may develop with the frontal passage
Tuesday morning. The main surge of dry cold Canadian air will be
delayed slightly behind the front, but temperatures across northern
Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon may only warm into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
By mid-week, below average temperatures will persist with highs
barely warming above the 50s and 60s on Wednesday as the surface
high digs southward into the Rockies and continues to push the
cooler airmass into the Southern Plains. Breezy winds on Wednesday
may make for a brisk day. Thursday morning could potentially be the
first freeze of the season, especially across portions of northwest
Oklahoma. Probabilities are increasing for temperatures below
freezing Thursday morning with a low-to-medium (3-50%) chance for
below freezing temperatures across western Oklahoma. Elsewhere,
there remains a low (<30%) chance of below freezing morning
temperatures Thursday with probabilities decreasing from west to
east across the area.
As the surface high pushes south and then eastward across Texas, the
cooler airmass will likely keep these cool, below average
temperatures through the end of the work week. Chances are lower
(<20%), but below freezing temperatures may return again Friday
morning across portions of northwest Oklahoma. Overall, mean
ensemble guidance has temperatures trending warmer, towards
seasonal, by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Upper low slow to move out with a potential of IFR to LIFR
conditions at some of our terminals through 16Z due to very low
ceilings with additional patchy fog reducing visibility's down to
2 miles. Expecting the stratus to lift a bit after 16Z and any fog
burning off with terminals improving to MVFR or at least high-end
IFR conditions. Stratus may briefly scatter toward 21Z at a
couple of our terminals for a few hours. Ceilings lower again
overnight with most terminals back in an IFR category by 07Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 64 53 67 53 / 10 0 0 20
Hobart OK 69 51 71 52 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 72 53 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
Gage OK 62 49 65 45 / 0 0 10 20
Ponca City OK 63 53 65 51 / 10 10 10 40
Durant OK 72 55 73 57 / 30 0 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251026T1136.txt
490
FXUS64 KOUN 260540
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
- A cold front will bring breezy north winds Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- The season's first freeze for northwestern Oklahoma is
possible Thursday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
The upper level low will continue to track eastward today with
precipitation chances ending from west to east across the forecast
area. Some lingering wrap around moisture may allow light rain
showers to persist through the early afternoon hours across mostly
the eastern/southeastern portions of the forecast area. With recent
wetting rains and continued low-level moisture, patchy areas of fog
may develop. Additionally, low clouds are expected through the day
but some areas of clouds may break and allow for peeks of sunshine.
Thus, temperatures under the low clouds will likely remain capped in
the lower to mid 60s, which areas across southern Oklahoma and into
western north Texas may warm a bit higher in to the upper 60s to
lower 70s thanks to some sun.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Low-level moisture will stick around Monday with low clouds
persisting through much of the day. Thus, highs will remain in the
60s to lower 70s. Areas across western north Texas may see a lesser
extent of low clouds and peeks of sunshine that may warm
temperatures into the 70s. A shortwave will dig into the Plains in
the wake of the upper low and bring a cold front across the forecast
area by Tuesday. Breezy post-frontal north winds are expected by mid-
day Tuesday before diminishing into the evening hours. Light rain
showers and a few storms may develop with the frontal passage
Tuesday morning. The main surge of dry cold Canadian air will be
delayed slightly behind the front, but temperatures across northern
Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon may only warm into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
By mid-week, below average temperatures will persist with highs
barely warming above the 50s and 60s on Wednesday as the surface
high digs southward into the Rockies and continues to push the
cooler airmass into the Southern Plains. Breezy winds on Wednesday
may make for a brisk day. Thursday morning could potentially be the
first freeze of the season, especially across portions of northwest
Oklahoma. Probabilities are increasing for temperatures below
freezing Thursday morning with a low-to-medium (3-50%) chance for
below freezing temperatures across western Oklahoma. Elsewhere,
there remains a low (<30%) chance of below freezing morning
temperatures Thursday with probabilities decreasing from west to
east across the area.
As the surface high pushes south and then eastward across Texas, the
cooler airmass will likely keep these cool, below average
temperatures through the end of the work week. Chances are lower
(<20%), but below freezing temperatures may return again Friday
morning across portions of northwest Oklahoma. Overall, mean
ensemble guidance has temperatures trending warmer, towards
seasonal, by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
As of early tonight, most airports are clocking in VFR conditions
outside of northern and southeast Oklahoma, where rain has
reductions in ceiling/visibility. Those reductions will become
more widespread in the coming few hours as low stratus builds in
across much of the area. Widespread fog isn't likely for much of
the night, but a foggy window for airports around daybreak is
definitely possible. Skies will try to clear from southwest to
northeast during the daytime.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 64 53 67 53 / 10 0 0 20
Hobart OK 69 51 71 52 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 72 53 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
Gage OK 62 49 65 45 / 0 0 10 20
Ponca City OK 63 53 65 51 / 10 10 10 40
Durant OK 72 55 73 57 / 30 0 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251026T0540.txt
399
FXUS64 KOUN 260335
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1033 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
- Isolated/scattered lightning and thunderstorm impacts through
this evening.
- The season's first freeze for northwestern Oklahoma is
possible Thursday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
An upper air low remains resident over northwest Texas/Oklahoma.
Light rain has continued through the day over northern Oklahoma,
while scattered convection has been on the increase within the
system's dry slot over west Texas. CAMs suggest that convection will
increase in the next few hours eastward over central/southern
Oklahoma. We will closely monitor this development for additional
thunderstorm impacts, primarily lightning and localized downpours.
The strongest signal for storms is over the southeastern
forecast area this evening...and also over the western north
Texas/southwestern Oklahoma portion of the Red River Valley where
activity will move east from the ongoing west Texas storms. Models
suggest instability will be weak...around 500 J/kg, but latest
mesoanalysis indicates that breaks in the clouds over the
southwest is yielding a cumulus field and upwards of 1000 J/kg,
so these trends will need to be monitored for at least some hail
risk. Additional rainfall amounts will generally range from a few
hundredths to perhaps just over a quarter inch in most locations.
Low probabilities (10-25%) for more than an inch of additional
QPF overnight will exist east of I35 over southern Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Additional rain chances will diminish Sunday as the upper air low
very slowly moves eastward away from Oklahoma. Any lingering wrap
around precipitation will be regulated to the eastern parts of the
CWA Sunday morning. We will likely see cloud cover scatter/break and
give way to some clearing over western north Texas and parts of
southwestern Oklahoma through Sunday night, but models suggest
clouds and cool temperatures will persist through Monday over the
remainder of the area as a notable cold front approaches Monday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
By Tuesday, an upper air shortwave trough will dig southeastward and
evolve into a closed low over Missouri. This will establish an
amplifying ridge/west - trough/east pattern that will support cooler
than normal temperatures as a 1030+ mb surface high brings a Pacific
northwest/southwestern Canadian airmass over the Rockies and then
southward through the Plains. This will promote sub-seasonal
temperatures (daily highs less than 70 deg) through Friday, with
90+% confidence per DESI ensemble data. The coolest day appears to
be Wednesday when highs may not get out of the upper 50s north of
I40. DESI ensemble/NBM probabilities currently indicate a greater
than 20% chance of temperatures less than 32 degrees west of an Alva
to Sayre line Thursday morning...with probabilities approaching 40%
in vicinity of Harper County. Most members (inner quartile range of
solutions), however, have lows bottoming out in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Thus, moderate prospects for a frost and/or freeze
over northwestern Oklahoma warrant additional scrutiny with
subsequent updates as we approach mid week.
The flow aloft will de-amplify to feature embedded shortwave troughs
in northwesterly flow by Friday which will push the post-frontal
surface high east and begin a modest warming trend going into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
As of early tonight, most airports are clocking in VFR conditions
outside of northern and southeast Oklahoma, where rain has
reductions in ceiling/visibility. Those reductions will become
more widespread in the coming few hours as low stratus builds in
across much of the area. Widespread fog isn't likely for much of
the night, but a foggy window for airports around daybreak is
definitely possible. Skies will try to clear from southwest to
northeast during the daytime.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 64 54 65 52 / 70 50 10 0
Hobart OK 69 52 69 52 / 50 40 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 72 54 72 53 / 40 30 0 0
Gage OK 61 49 63 49 / 80 50 0 0
Ponca City OK 61 53 63 52 / 90 50 10 10
Durant OK 72 58 71 54 / 80 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251026T0335.txt
950
FXUS64 KOUN 251145
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
- Patchy fog may develop this morning across portions of
northern and western Oklahoma. Reduced visibility may cause
hazardous driving conditions.
- Low chances for scattered storms to develop this afternoon
across portions of central and southern Oklahoma and into
western north Texas. The severe potential remains low.
- A pattern change may bring cold air and the first freeze to
northwest Oklahoma by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Most of the activity early this morning remains sub-severe with the
warm front draped across north Texas and very little instability
north of the boundary. Rainfall rates are roughly 0.5"/hour with
mostly minor nuisance flooding of low-lying roadways and areas and
with the higher PWATs pushing eastward, the rainfall rates this
morning will continue to be around or less than 0.5"/hour.
Dry air has already begun to fill in across portions of southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas with rain chances ending. As the
surface low translates eastward today, wrap around showers and
weak storms may continue Saturday morning across portions of
northern and western Oklahoma. Persistent low-level moisture and
recent rainfall may give way to the development of patchy fog
across portions of western Oklahoma this morning. Cloudy skies and
some areas of light rain will keep temperatures cool in the 60s
across much of the area, but breaks in the clouds may allow for
some warming temperatures into the 70s across portions of western
north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Weak elevated instability may
provide some rumbles of thunder, but overall the threat for any
strong to severe storms will be low.
By this afternoon, the upper low will be approaching Oklahoma with
increased lift in the mid-levels. The strongest lift will remain
south of the forecast area in Texas. However, some of the higher
resolution models are hinting at scattered convection developing
during the afternoon hours across areas that remain rain free
Saturday morning (most likely western north Texas into portions of
southern and central Oklahoma). A few storms may become strong, but
the threat for severe weather remains low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
By Sunday morning, most of the rain will have ended across the
forecast area with only a small chance for some wrap around moisture
as the upper low continues eastward into towards Arkansas. Cloudy
and cool weather is expected Sunday with highs in the 60s to 70s. By
Monday, gradual warming into the upper 60s to 70s will occur ahead
of a backdoor cold front. South winds will shift to the north by the
evening hours. There is a low chance (<30%) of rain showers along
and east of I-35 Monday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
By Tuesday, the upper shortwave will dig southeastward into a closed
low over Missouri. This will open the door for cold Canadian air to
dive into the forecast area with cooler than normal temperatures.
North-northwesterly flow will persist aloft and the pattern may
continue to keep a cooler airmass in place with below-normal
temperatures for the remainder of the week. Depending on the
strength of the cold air and pattern aloft, there is a potential for
the first freeze to occur across northwest Oklahoma by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Our main storm system has already moved through with steady wrap-
around rain across northern Oklahoma with some additional showers
developing in the dry slot across west-central into central
Oklahoma. Expecting deteriorating conditions with low
ceilings/stratus and some reduced visibilities in rain
maintaining IFR to periods of LIFR conditions. By 20Z conditions
will slightly improve to MVFR conditions at some of our terminals
although returning to IFR conditions again by 04Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 65 55 65 53 / 70 30 10 0
Hobart OK 70 52 70 52 / 40 20 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 72 55 72 54 / 40 30 0 0
Gage OK 62 50 65 49 / 60 20 0 0
Ponca City OK 62 54 63 51 / 90 40 10 10
Durant OK 70 59 73 56 / 60 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251025T1145.txt
