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091
FXUS64 KOUN 230315
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1014 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Low probability of strong to marginally severe storms over
northern Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon
- Widespread, heavy rainfall increasingly likely early next week
- Another round of heavy rainfall is possible end of next week
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Mostly tranquil conditions continue this afternoon with
seasonable temperatures, light winds, and sunny skies as we remain
under the influence of high pressure. Dewpoint temperatures will
be somewhat lower than the past several days, especially across
northwest/western Oklahoma and this should keep the mugginess
down. Isolated showers and a thunderstorm is possible over
southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon, but dry air aloft should
limit the potential. Latest surface observations show a cold front
is poised over Nebraska, which will gradually move southward
and enter our area tomorrow.
Overnight lows by early Saturday morning will be mainly in the 60's.
Thompson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Saturday...
Saturday will be feature high temperatures in the 90's with an
increase in northeast winds as the ridge breaks down and as a strong
trough passes far to the north. The aforementioned front is prog'd
to into northern Oklahoma by mid-day or early afternoon, and
increasing clouds are anticipated with FROPA. There is a chance
of scattered showers and thunderstorms near the front in the
afternoon with potential dissipating near the I-40 corridor by
evening.
While CAMS are not overly excited about storm development, the
15Z RAP does show activity potentially developing near the state-
line over north-central Oklahoma. As the front enters the area,
moisture-pooling ahead of the boundary appears plausible with
PWATs to 1.9 inches prog'd just ahead of the front. Modeled
soundings also depict strong instability (~3500 J/kg), no CIN,
and modest shear. This yields at least a low chance of strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms over northern Oklahoma which are
capable of producing hail up to the size of nickels, gusty winds
to 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Any activity is expected
to move southeast and may reach east-central Oklahoma by evening.
Precip chances along the front diminish by late evening.
This boundary reaches north Texas by Sunday morning and stalls.
Saturday Night & Sunday...
Later Saturday night and into Sunday morning, a complex of showers
and thunderstorms could descend from the high plains and move into
northwest/western Oklahoma. Low precipitation chances linger over
far northwest Oklahoma during the day Sunday. High temperatures
will be in the 80's over northwest and northern Oklahoma with the
increasing cloudiness and rain chances.
Sunday night...
Low-level WAA ahead of an approaching shortwave, which is
embedded within the northwest flow, will lead to increasing rain
chances after midnight. Highest probabilities of rain are over
northwest Oklahoma
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Near record cold high temperatures likely on Tuesday, with heavy
rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday and again end of the week...
The concern for heavy rainfall and flash flood potential is
increasing for Monday into Tuesday, and thus, WPC has expanded
the slight risk of excessive rainfall to include much of southern
Oklahoma. Ensembles are showing some impressive QPF, but still
differ on location. Thus, model spread remains large (indicating high
uncertainty), with 2 to 3 inch differences among members in some
areas. Nevertheless, there is medium-high confidence (40-60%) of
widespread amounts of at least 1 inch, with the potential for 3
to 4 inches in some areas (through Tuesday).
Highs in the 70's are expected to impact our area starting Monday
(northern Oklahoma) and including most of Oklahoma by
Tuesday. Temperatures remain well-below average through Thursday
with another round of heavy rainfall possible end of the week.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable
winds overnight will become northerly to northeasterly behind a
front Saturday into Saturday evening. A few showers are possible
behind the front across northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, but
chances were too low to include at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 92 69 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Hobart OK 95 68 96 68 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 93 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 93 64 91 64 / 0 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 91 67 89 64 / 0 0 20 10
Durant OK 93 70 94 72 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250823T0315.txt
720
FXUS64 KOUN 222335
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
635 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Low probability of strong to marginally severe storms over
northern Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon
- Widespread, heavy rainfall increasingly likely early next week
- Another round of heavy rainfall is possible end of next week
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Mostly tranquil conditions continue this afternoon with
seasonable temperatures, light winds, and sunny skies as we remain
under the influence of high pressure. Dewpoint temperatures will
be somewhat lower than the past several days, especially across
northwest/western Oklahoma and this should keep the mugginess
down. Isolated showers and a thunderstorm is possible over
southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon, but dry air aloft should
limit the potential. Latest surface observations show a cold front
is poised over Nebraska, which will gradually move southward
and enter our area tomorrow.
Overnight lows by early Saturday morning will be mainly in the 60's.
Thompson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Saturday...
Saturday will be feature high temperatures in the 90's with an
increase in northeast winds as the ridge breaks down and as a strong
trough passes far to the north. The aforementioned front is prog'd
to into northern Oklahoma by mid-day or early afternoon, and
increasing clouds are anticipated with FROPA. There is a chance
of scattered showers and thunderstorms near the front in the
afternoon with potential dissipating near the I-40 corridor by
evening.
While CAMS are not overly excited about storm development, the
15Z RAP does show activity potentially developing near the state-
line over north-central Oklahoma. As the front enters the area,
moisture-pooling ahead of the boundary appears plausible with
PWATs to 1.9 inches prog'd just ahead of the front. Modeled
soundings also depict strong instability (~3500 J/kg), no CIN,
and modest shear. This yields at least a low chance of strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms over northern Oklahoma which are
capable of producing hail up to the size of nickels, gusty winds
to 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Any activity is expected
to move southeast and may reach east-central Oklahoma by evening.
Precip chances along the front diminish by late evening.
This boundary reaches north Texas by Sunday morning and stalls.
Saturday Night & Sunday...
Later Saturday night and into Sunday morning, a complex of showers
and thunderstorms could descend from the high plains and move into
northwest/western Oklahoma. Low precipitation chances linger over
far northwest Oklahoma during the day Sunday. High temperatures
will be in the 80's over northwest and northern Oklahoma with the
increasing cloudiness and rain chances.
Sunday night...
Low-level WAA ahead of an approaching shortwave, which is
embedded within the northwest flow, will lead to increasing rain
chances after midnight. Highest probabilities of rain are over
northwest Oklahoma
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Near record cold high temperatures likely on Tuesday, with heavy
rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday and again end of the week...
The concern for heavy rainfall and flash flood potential is
increasing for Monday into Tuesday, and thus, WPC has expanded
the slight risk of excessive rainfall to include much of southern
Oklahoma. Ensembles are showing some impressive QPF, but still
differ on location. Thus, model spread remains large (indicating high
uncertainty), with 2 to 3 inch differences among members in some
areas. Nevertheless, there is medium-high confidence (40-60%) of
widespread amounts of at least 1 inch, with the potential for 3
to 4 inches in some areas (through Tuesday).
Highs in the 70's are expected to impact our area starting Monday
(northern Oklahoma) and including most of Oklahoma by
Tuesday. Temperatures remain well-below average through Thursday
with another round of heavy rainfall possible end of the week.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable
winds overnight will become northerly to northeasterly behind a
front tomorrow. A few showers are possible behind the front across
northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, but chances were too low to
include at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 69 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 10
Hobart OK 68 96 68 92 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 70 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 64 91 64 86 / 0 10 10 20
Ponca City OK 67 89 64 88 / 0 20 10 10
Durant OK 70 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250822T2335.txt
717
FXUS64 KOUN 221925
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Low probability of strong to marginally severe storms over
northern Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon
- Widespread, heavy rainfall increasingly likely early next week
- Another round of heavy rainfall is possible end of next week
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Mostly tranquil conditions continue this afternoon with
seasonable temperatures, light winds, and sunny skies as we remain
under the influence of high pressure. Dewpoint temperatures will
be somewhat lower than the past several days, especially across
northwest/western Oklahoma and this should keep the mugginess
down. Isolated showers and a thunderstorm is possible over
southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon, but dry air aloft should
limit the potential. Latest surface observations show a cold front
is poised over Nebraska, which will gradually move southward
and enter our area tomorrow.
Overnight lows by early Saturday morning will be mainly in the 60's.
Thompson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Saturday...
Saturday will be feature high temperatures in the 90's with an
increase in northeast winds as the ridge breaks down and as a strong
trough passes far to the north. The aforementioned front is prog'd
to into northern Oklahoma by mid-day or early afternoon, and
increasing clouds are anticipated with FROPA. There is a chance
of scattered showers and thunderstorms near the front in the
afternoon with potential dissipating near the I-40 corridor by
evening.
While CAMS are not overly excited about storm development, the
15Z RAP does show activity potentially developing near the state-
line over north-central Oklahoma. As the front enters the area,
moisture-pooling ahead of the boundary appears plausible with
PWATs to 1.9 inches prog'd just ahead of the front. Modeled
soundings also depict strong instability (~3500 J/kg), no CIN,
and modest shear. This yields at least a low chance of strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms over northern Oklahoma which are
capable of producing hail up to the size of nickels, gusty winds
to 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Any activity is expected
to move southeast and may reach east-central Oklahoma by evening.
Precip chances along the front diminish by late evening.
This boundary reaches north Texas by Sunday morning and stalls.
Saturday Night & Sunday...
Later Saturday night and into Sunday morning, a complex of showers
and thunderstorms could descend from the high plains and move into
northwest/western Oklahoma. Low precipitation chances linger over
far northwest Oklahoma during the day Sunday. High temperatures
will be in the 80's over northwest and northern Oklahoma with the
increasing cloudiness and rain chances.
Sunday night...
Low-level WAA ahead of an approaching shortwave, which is
embedded within the northwest flow, will lead to increasing rain
chances after midnight. Highest probabilities of rain are over
northwest Oklahoma
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Near record cold high temperatures likely on Tuesday, with heavy
rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday and again end of the week...
The concern for heavy rainfall and flash flood potential is
increasing for Monday into Tuesday, and thus, WPC has expanded
the slight risk of excessive rainfall to include much of southern
Oklahoma. Ensembles are showing some impressive QPF, but still
differ on location. Thus, model spread remains large (indicating high
uncertainty), with 2 to 3 inch differences among members in some
areas. Nevertheless, there is medium-high confidence (40-60%) of
widespread amounts of at least 1 inch, with the potential for 3
to 4 inches in some areas (through Tuesday).
Highs in the 70's are expected to impact our area starting Monday
(northern Oklahoma) and including most of Oklahoma by
Tuesday. Temperatures remain well-below average through Thursday
with another round of heavy rainfall possible end of the week.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period with fair weather
cumulus developing this afternoon and dissipating with the setting
sun. A front is expected to push south across the terminals tomorrow
with light north-northeast winds and scattered to broken low clouds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 69 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 10
Hobart OK 68 96 68 92 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 70 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 64 91 64 86 / 0 10 10 20
Ponca City OK 67 89 64 88 / 0 20 10 10
Durant OK 70 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...23
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250822T1925.txt
764
FXUS64 KOUN 221732
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Warm weather through the weekend.
- A pattern chance is coming. Turning cooler early next week
with widespread rain chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Another warm day is expected with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Dewpoints generally in the 50s and 60s will keep heat index
values near or slightly below air temperatures, except perhaps in
southeastern Oklahoma where dewpoints are a little higher. Mostly
sunny skies and light east to northeast winds are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Weather conditions are expected to be similar through the weekend.
A mid-level low slowly moves across Ontario with a trough
extending down toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Northwest flow
aloft in the Northern Plains helps keep cooler air filtering out
of Canada toward the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Although
the cool air remains northeast of the area, the mid-level ridge
shifts into the far western United States keeping the hot weather
of recent weeks out of the area.
With the ridge shifting west, northwest flow aloft slowly
increases this weekend. With this there is at least some low
potential for showers/thunderstorms coming off the central High
Plains to approach northern Oklahoma on Saturday and Sunday, but
the probability still looks fairly low through the day on Sunday.
Rain chances do begin to increase Sunday night as the mid-level
trough to our northeast amplifies and the northwest flow aloft
builds more strongly into the central Plains allowing a higher
potential of convection to move off the central High Plains into
northern Oklahoma.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
A stronger wave digging into the west side of the Ontario mid-
level low helps to extend this northern stream trough into lower
latitudes of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Meanwhile the
mid-level ridge across the west loses weakens and heights fall
across the west. This will increase our northwest flow aloft and
keep us in a pattern where we will likely see multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms develop and move into the area from the
northwest. This will also be a much cooler pattern. The high
temperatures will still be quite dependent on how widespread the
precipitation and cloudiness is from day to day, but this looks to
bring very un-August like temperatures to the area. With multiple
rounds of showers and storms, rainfall accumulation over time will
start to add up, so we will be watching for the possibility of
locally heavy rainfall not only with convection in short time
periods, but with the multiple rounds of rain over days next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period with fair weather
cumulus developing this afternoon and dissipating with the setting
sun. A front is expected to push south across the terminals tomorrow
with light north-northeast winds and scattered to broken low clouds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 69 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 10
Hobart OK 68 96 68 92 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 70 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 64 91 64 86 / 0 10 10 20
Ponca City OK 67 89 64 88 / 0 20 10 10
Durant OK 70 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...23
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20250822T1732.txt
