591 
FXUS64 KOUN 122353
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
653 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon 
  and evening across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight) 
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible early this 
afternoon across central Oklahoma, with additional storm 
development expected late this afternoon into this evening.

An outflow boundary pushing in from the northeast helped to develop 
scattered showers and storms across north central and central 
Oklahoma this morning. Since then, convergence along this boundary 
has weakened and only isolated showers/storms remain. The airmass 
north of this outflow boundary has also stabilized in the short 
term. So isolated showers/storms over central Oklahoma may persist 
early this afternoon, but the activity is on the decrease.

Farther west and south, convective inhibition is decreasing and many 
convective-allowing models show storms developing late this 
afternoon across northwest and perhaps central Oklahoma. MLCAPE is 
already 2000-3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear of 30 
to 40 knots is progged across northern Oklahoma late this afternoon 
which would support some organized thunderstorms. With that, the SPC 
did upgrade the severe weather outlook to Slight Risk for late this 
afternoon and evening which is reasonable. It is likely we will see 
thunderstorm redevelopment late this afternoon into this evening 
with severe weather possible, both hail and strong winds. Storms 
will likely not be widespread enough for significant drought relief 
in many areas, although heavy rainfall is possible in localized 
areas. The severe weather potential and storm coverage are expected 
to decrease late this evening or early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night) 
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The upper ridge builds stronger over the area, and the heating trend 
returns to the area. A Heat Advisory will likely be necessary on 
Sunday, but there is a little question on if any outflow from 
overnight/morning thunderstorms may take enough off the heat to keep 
some areas below criteria, so will defer on issuing an advisory 
until the geography is more clear.

Another hot day is expected on Monday, but winds will be a little 
stronger in western Oklahoma as surface low pressure deepens in 
southeast Colorado. Although the minimum humidity is currently 
projected to be 20 to 25 percent, the higher wind speeds are still 
expected to push fire weather conditions into the elevated category 
on Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast 
United States through at least the middle part of next week. 
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the 
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal 
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the 
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance 
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the 
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger flow 
aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the ring of fire), 
where there will be occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms 
from remnant convection or nearby fronts. 

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the 
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It's not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north). 
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance 
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Challenging first 6 hours of the forecast period as confidence with 
terminal-specific impacts from convection is relatively low at 
several sites... including KWWR, KCSM, KPNC, KSWO, and KOKC.

Currently, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along a 
northwest to southeast oriented corridor from northwestern Oklahoma 
to southeastern Oklahoma. This activity should wane in the next 
couple of hours, but additional convective activity is expected to 
impact western and north Oklahoma later this evening. The chance of 
convection does appear to decrease after 06-08z. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75 101  77 100 /  20   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         77 103  77 102 /  10   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  76 104  77 102 /  10   0   0   0 
Gage OK           72 103  76 101 /  40   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     71  99  74  99 /  40  10   0   0 
Durant OK         76 102  76 101 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>025-027>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260912T2353.txt



568 
FXUS64 KOUN 122351 CCA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon 
  and evening across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight) 
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible early this 
afternoon across central Oklahoma, with additional storm 
development expected late this afternoon into this evening.

An outflow boundary pushing in from the northeast helped to develop 
scattered showers and storms across north central and central 
Oklahoma this morning. Since then, convergence along this boundary 
has weakened and only isolated showers/storms remain. The airmass 
north of this outflow boundary has also stabilized in the short 
term. So isolated showers/storms over central Oklahoma may persist 
early this afternoon, but the activity is on the decrease.

Farther west and south, convective inhibition is decreasing and many 
convective-allowing models show storms developing late this 
afternoon across northwest and perhaps central Oklahoma. MLCAPE is 
already 2000-3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear of 30 
to 40 knots is progged across northern Oklahoma late this afternoon 
which would support some organized thunderstorms. With that, the SPC 
did upgrade the severe weather outlook to Slight Risk for late this 
afternoon and evening which is reasonable. It is likely we will see 
thunderstorm redevelopment late this afternoon into this evening 
with severe weather possible, both hail and strong winds. Storms 
will likely not be widespread enough for significant drought relief 
in many areas, although heavy rainfall is possible in localized 
areas. The severe weather potential and storm coverage are expected 
to decrease late this evening or early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night) 
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The upper ridge builds stronger over the area, and the heating trend 
returns to the area. A Heat Advisory will likely be necessary on 
Sunday, but there is a little question on if any outflow from 
overnight/morning thunderstorms may take enough off the heat to keep 
some areas below criteria, so will defer on issuing an advisory 
until the geography is more clear.

Another hot day is expected on Monday, but winds will be a little 
stronger in western Oklahoma as surface low pressure deepens in 
southeast Colorado. Although the minimum humidity is currently 
projected to be 20 to 25 percent, the higher wind speeds are still 
expected to push fire weather conditions into the elevated category 
on Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast 
United States through at least the middle part of next week. 
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the 
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal 
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the 
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance 
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the 
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger flow 
aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the ring of fire), 
where there will be occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms 
from remnant convection or nearby fronts. 

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the 
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It's not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north). 
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance 
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Still have some isolated convection from earlier this morning 
that came down from Kansas into northcentral Oklahoma which has 
been intermittently impacting terminals KPNC & KSWO. Will 
maintain PROB30 for -TSRA and VCTS amendments when/if needed at 
least through 22Z at these two terminals. Otherwise there is a 30%
chance for another round of convection initiating between 21-07Z 
across northern Oklahoma which could briefly reduce visibilities 
2-4 miles in rain at terminals KPNC, KSWO,KCSM, and KWWR although 
ceilings may not be that low. As far as central Oklahoma, will 
have 30% probability for -TSRA from 21-24Z at terminals KOKC & 
KOUN which could briefly reduce those terminals to an MVFR 
category in rain then staying at a VFR category through the 
remainder of the forecast. All other terminals not mentioned 
should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast 
period. Surface winds will generally stay southerly across most of  
our terminals although storm outflow boundaries coming down from 
Kansas are keeping winds more variable in direction across 
terminals in northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  99  76  98 /  20   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         76 102  77 101 /  10   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  76 103  76 102 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           71 101  75 100 /  30  10   0   0 
Ponca City OK     70  97  73  97 /  30  10   0   0 
Durant OK         76 101  76 101 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>025- 
     027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260912T2351.txt



500 
FXUS64 KOUN 121907
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon 
  and evening across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight) 
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible early this 
afternoon across central Oklahoma, with additional storm 
development expected late this afternoon into this evening.

An outflow boundary pushing in from the northeast helped to develop 
scattered showers and storms across north central and central 
Oklahoma this morning. Since then, convergence along this boundary 
has weakened and only isolated showers/storms remain. The airmass 
north of this outflow boundary has also stabilized in the short 
term. So isolated showers/storms over central Oklahoma may persist 
early this afternoon, but the activity is on the decrease.

Farther west and south, convective inhibition is decreasing and many 
convective-allowing models show storms developing late this 
afternoon across northwest and perhaps central Oklahoma. MLCAPE is 
already 2000-3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear of 30 
to 40 knots is progged across northern Oklahoma late this afternoon 
which would support some organized thunderstorms. With that, the SPC 
did upgrade the severe weather outlook to Slight Risk for late this 
afternoon and evening which is reasonable. It is likely we will see 
thunderstorm redevelopment late this afternoon into this evening 
with severe weather possible, both hail and strong winds. Storms 
will likely not be widespread enough for significant drought relief 
in many areas, although heavy rainfall is possible in localized 
areas. The severe weather potential and storm coverage are expected 
to decrease late this evening or early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night) 
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The upper ridge builds stronger over the area, and the heating trend 
returns to the area. A Heat Advisory will likely be necessary on 
Sunday, but there is a little question on if any outflow from 
overnight/morning thunderstorms may take enough off the heat to keep 
some areas below criteria, so will defer on issuing an advisory 
until the geography is more clear.

Another hot day is expected on Monday, but winds will be a little 
stronger in western Oklahoma as surface low pressure deepens in 
southeast Colorado. Although the minimum humidity is currently 
projected to be 20 to 25 percent, the higher wind speeds are still 
expected to push fire weather conditions into the elevated category 
on Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast 
United States through at least the middle part of next week. 
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the 
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal 
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the 
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance 
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the 
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger 
flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the “ring of 
fire”), where there will be occasional chances of showers and 
thunderstorms from remnant convection or nearby fronts. 

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the 
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It's not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north). 
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance 
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Still have some isolated convection from earlier this morning 
that came down from Kansas into northcentral Oklahoma which has 
been intermittently impacting terminals KPNC & KSWO. Will 
maintain PROB30 for -TSRA and VCTS amendments when/if needed at 
least through 22Z at these two terminals. Otherwise there is a 30%
chance for another round of convection initiating between 21-07Z 
across northern Oklahoma which could briefly reduce visibilities 
2-4 miles in rain at terminals KPNC, KSWO,KCSM, and KWWR although 
ceilings may not be that low. As far as central Oklahoma, will 
have 30% probability for -TSRA from 21-24Z at terminals KOKC & 
KOUN which could briefly reduce those terminals to an MVFR 
category in rain then staying at a VFR category through the 
remainder of the forecast. All other terminals not mentioned 
should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast 
period. Surface winds will generally stay southerly across most of  
our terminals although storm outflow boundaries coming down from 
Kansas are keeping winds more variable in direction across 
terminals in northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  99  76  98 /  20   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         76 102  77 101 /  10   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  76 103  76 102 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           71 101  75 100 /  30  10   0   0 
Ponca City OK     70  97  73  97 /  30  10   0   0 
Durant OK         76 101  76 101 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>025- 
     027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260912T1907.txt



243 
FXUS64 KOUN 121750
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening, especially across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday night) 
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A line of thunderstorms is developing along a cold front across 
Nebraska early this morning. As this line of thunderstorms 
continues to move the southeast, the remnants may impact north 
central Oklahoma later this morning (after sunrise). There is an 
~30 to 40% chance of storms across north central Oklahoma this 
morning. If the thunderstorms survive, the risk for severe weather
is low as the activity should generally be weakening with 
southeast extent as the low-level jet will be subsiding after 12Z.

Another hot and humid afternoon is expected with high 
temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to mid 100s deg F. A Heat 
Advisory is in effect for this afternoon for locations along and 
south of I-40. For locations north of I-40, uncertainty is a bit 
higher as temperatures will be highly dependent on the evolution 
of any morning thunderstorms and associated cloud debris/ 
convective outflow.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop 
late this afternoon into the evening with two potential areas for 
development. The first zone is ahead of a cold front in northern 
Oklahoma. The second zone is the location of any remnant outflow 
boundary from the morning convection. There is greater confidence 
for development in the first zone given there is uncertainty on 
the evolution of the morning storms and location of any outflow 
boundary. If the remnants of the storms make it into north central
Oklahoma this morning, the outflow boundary could be located 
somewhere across central/east central Oklahoma.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a threat for 
both damaging wind gusts and large hail given MLCAPE ~3000 to 4000
J/kg, effective bulk shear ~30 to 35 knots, and downdraft CAPE 
>1000 J/kg. There will also be a threat for heavy rainfall given 
the high precipitable water values (>1.5”). For example, the HREF 
ensemble max indicates the potential for locally heavy rainfall 
up to 2 to 3" in northern Oklahoma. Most locations will not 
receive that much rainfall, but that gives an idea of a reasonable
maximum amount of rainfall. If these amounts were to occur in an 
an area susceptible to flooding (e.g., an urban area), there would
be some flooding risk. Thunderstorms may organize into a cluster 
that would move east-southeast across the northern half of 
Oklahoma late evening through the overnight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night) 
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The ~594 dam subtropical ridge will be centered across the 
Southern Plains on Sunday, which significantly decreases the 
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid conditions are
expected with widespread triple digit heat indices and dry 
conditions. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for parts of the
area on Sunday. 

The subtropical ridge will begin to move eastward on Monday. Even
so, the heat will continue with a strong low-level thermal ridge 
across the western/northwestern side of the ridge. Lee 
cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains will cause a deepening 
surface low and attendant trough across the Central Plains. 
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are possible 
across the west on Monday afternoon with a strengthening surface 
pressure gradient resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast 
United States through at least the middle part of next week. 
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the 
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal 
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the 
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance 
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the 
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger 
flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the “ring of 
fire”), where there will be occasional chances of showers and 
thunderstorms from remnant convection or nearby fronts. 

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the 
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It's not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north). 
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance 
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Still have some isolated convection from earlier this morning 
that came down from Kansas into northcentral Oklahoma which has 
been intermittently impacting terminals KPNC & KSWO. Will 
maintain PROB30 for -TSRA and VCTS amendments when/if needed at 
least through 22Z at these two terminals. Otherwise there is a 30%
chance for another round of convection initiating between 21-07Z 
across northern Oklahoma which could briefly reduce visibilities 
2-4 miles in rain at terminals KPNC, KSWO,KCSM, and KWWR although 
ceilings may not be that low. As far as central Oklahoma, will 
have 30% probability for -TSRA from 21-24Z at terminals KOKC & 
KOUN which could briefly reduce those terminals to an MVFR 
category in rain then staying at a VFR category through the 
remainder of the forecast. All other terminals not mentioned 
should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast 
period. Surface winds will generally stay southerly across most of  
our terminals although storm outflow boundaries coming down from 
Kansas are keeping winds more variable in direction across 
terminals in northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  99  76  98 /  20   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         76 102  77 101 /  10   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  76 103  76 102 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           71 101  75 100 /  30  10   0   0 
Ponca City OK     70  97  73  97 /  30  10   0   0 
Durant OK         76 101  76 101 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>025-027>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260912T1750.txt



484 
FXUS64 KOUN 121015
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
515 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening, especially across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday night) 
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A line of thunderstorms is developing along a cold front across 
Nebraska early this morning. As this line of thunderstorms 
continues to move the southeast, the remnants may impact north 
central Oklahoma later this morning (after sunrise). There is an 
~30 to 40% chance of storms across north central Oklahoma this 
morning. If the thunderstorms survive, the risk for severe weather
is low as the activity should generally be weakening with 
southeast extent as the low-level jet will be subsiding after 12Z.

Another hot and humid afternoon is expected with high 
temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to mid 100s deg F. A Heat 
Advisory is in effect for this afternoon for locations along and 
south of I-40. For locations north of I-40, uncertainty is a bit 
higher as temperatures will be highly dependent on the evolution 
of any morning thunderstorms and associated cloud debris/ 
convective outflow.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop 
late this afternoon into the evening with two potential areas for 
development. The first zone is ahead of a cold front in northern 
Oklahoma. The second zone is the location of any remnant outflow 
boundary from the morning convection. There is greater confidence 
for development in the first zone given there is uncertainty on 
the evolution of the morning storms and location of any outflow 
boundary. If the remnants of the storms make it into north central
Oklahoma this morning, the outflow boundary could be located 
somewhere across central/east central Oklahoma.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a threat for 
both damaging wind gusts and large hail given MLCAPE ~3000 to 4000
J/kg, effective bulk shear ~30 to 35 knots, and downdraft CAPE 
>1000 J/kg. There will also be a threat for heavy rainfall given 
the high precipitable water values (>1.5”). For example, the HREF 
ensemble max indicates the potential for locally heavy rainfall 
up to 2 to 3" in northern Oklahoma. Most locations will not 
receive that much rainfall, but that gives an idea of a reasonable
maximum amount of rainfall. If these amounts were to occur in an 
an area susceptible to flooding (e.g., an urban area), there would
be some flooding risk. Thunderstorms may organize into a cluster 
that would move east-southeast across the northern half of 
Oklahoma late evening through the overnight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night) 
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The ~594 dam subtropical ridge will be centered across the 
Southern Plains on Sunday, which significantly decreases the 
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid conditions are
expected with widespread triple digit heat indices and dry 
conditions. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for parts of the
area on Sunday. 

The subtropical ridge will begin to move eastward on Monday. Even
so, the heat will continue with a strong low-level thermal ridge 
across the western/northwestern side of the ridge. Lee 
cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains will cause a deepening 
surface low and attendant trough across the Central Plains. 
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are possible 
across the west on Monday afternoon with a strengthening surface 
pressure gradient resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast 
United States through at least the middle part of next week. 
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the 
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal 
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the 
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance 
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the 
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger 
flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the “ring of 
fire”), where there will be occasional chances of showers and 
thunderstorms from remnant convection or nearby fronts. 

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the 
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It's not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north). 
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance 
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Morning showers and thunderstorms are possible near KPNC and KSWO.
However, given the trajectory of the storm complex currently
tracking southeastwards across eastern Kansas chances appear to 
be diminishing for this round of precipitation. 

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible by late 
afternoon and into the evening hours across northern, central and 
into southern Oklahoma. Given the varied modeled output for this
round, probabilities are on the low-side with PROB30's for many
terminals. Severe storms will have the potential to yield large
hail up to the size of golf-balls and wind gusts to 70 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  75  99  76 /  20  20   0   0 
Hobart OK        104  76 102  77 /  20  10   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX 105  76 103  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK          101  71 101  75 /  30  30  10   0 
Ponca City OK     94  70  97  73 /  40  30  10   0 
Durant OK        102  76 101  76 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for OKZ021>025-027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260912T1015.txt



281 
FXUS64 KOUN 120711
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
211 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening, especially across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday night) 
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A line of thunderstorms is developing along a cold front across 
Nebraska early this morning. As this line of thunderstorms 
continues to move the southeast, the remnants may impact north 
central Oklahoma later this morning (after sunrise). There is an 
~30 to 40% chance of storms across north central Oklahoma this 
morning. If the thunderstorms survive, the risk for severe weather
is low as the activity should generally be weakening with 
southeast extent as the low-level jet will be subsiding after 12Z.

Another hot and humid afternoon is expected with high 
temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to mid 100s deg F. A Heat 
Advisory is in effect for this afternoon for locations along and 
south of I-40. For locations north of I-40, uncertainty is a bit 
higher as temperatures will be highly dependent on the evolution 
of any morning thunderstorms and associated cloud debris/ 
convective outflow.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop 
late this afternoon into the evening with two potential areas for 
development. The first zone is ahead of a cold front in northern 
Oklahoma. The second zone is the location of any remnant outflow 
boundary from the morning convection. There is greater confidence 
for development in the first zone given there is uncertainty on 
the evolution of the morning storms and location of any outflow 
boundary. If the remnants of the storms make it into north central
Oklahoma this morning, the outflow boundary could be located 
somewhere across central/east central Oklahoma.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a threat for 
both damaging wind gusts and large hail given MLCAPE ~3000 to 4000
J/kg, effective bulk shear ~30 to 35 knots, and downdraft CAPE 
>1000 J/kg. There will also be a threat for heavy rainfall given 
the high precipitable water values (>1.5”). For example, the HREF 
ensemble max indicates the potential for locally heavy rainfall 
up to 2 to 3" in northern Oklahoma. Most locations will not 
receive that much rainfall, but that gives an idea of a reasonable
maximum amount of rainfall. If these amounts were to occur in an 
an area susceptible to flooding (e.g., an urban area), there would
be some flooding risk. Thunderstorms may organize into a cluster 
that would move east-southeast across the northern half of 
Oklahoma late evening through the overnight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night) 
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The ~594 dam subtropical ridge will be centered across the 
Southern Plains on Sunday, which significantly decreases the 
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid conditions are
expected with widespread triple digit heat indices and dry 
conditions. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for parts of the
area on Sunday. 

The subtropical ridge will begin to move eastward on Monday. Even
so, the heat will continue with a strong low-level thermal ridge 
across the western/northwestern side of the ridge. Lee 
cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains will cause a deepening 
surface low and attendant trough across the Central Plains. 
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are possible 
across the west on Monday afternoon with a strengthening surface 
pressure gradient resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast 
United States through at least the middle part of next week. 
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the 
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal 
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the 
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance 
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the 
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger 
flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the “ring of 
fire”), where there will be occasional chances of showers and 
thunderstorms from remnant convection or nearby fronts. 

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the 
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It's not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north). 
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance 
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A storm complex currently poised to enter northern Kansas may 
reach north-central Oklahoma later this morning (after 12Z), and
PROB30's with MVFR conditions have been added to KPNC/KSWO for 
this potential. Should this solution verify, the resulting storm
outflow is anticipated to push towards KWWR to KOKC to perhaps
KDUA. Strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible by
late afternoon near the boundary and again late evening near the
effective cold front across northern Oklahoma. Large hail up to
the size of golf-balls and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph appear
possible with the strongest storms (which are prog'd over northern
Oklahoma by evening). There is considerable uncertainty on where
the outflow boundary is positioned by afternoon, and therefore
placement of storms by late-afternoon.

Thompson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  75  99  76 /  20  20   0   0 
Hobart OK        104  76 102  77 /  20  10   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX 105  76 103  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK          101  71 101  75 /  30  30  10   0 
Ponca City OK     94  70  97  73 /  40  30  10   0 
Durant OK        102  76 101  76 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for OKZ021>025-027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260912T0711.txt



779 
FXUS64 KOUN 120548
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Temperatures rebound today above normal with dry conditions

- Chance of showers and severe thunderstorms on Saturday,
  especially across northern Oklahoma

- Dangerous heating returning across parts of our area on Saturday
  through Monday before rain chances return Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures make a return today as our upper 
trough shifts eastward replaced by a trailing ridge.  A deepening 
surface low lee of the Southern Rockies will increase southerly low-
level flow and moisture transport increasing dew points across 
southeast into central Oklahoma making it feel muggy again. Triple 
digit temperatures will return up to the Red River in western north 
Texas with triple digit heat indices of 100 to near 105 degrees 
returning to southern Oklahoma.  Southeast Oklahoma could see some 
afternoon CU with clear sunny skies across the rest of our forecast 
area.  We may see some thin high clouds increase tonight coming down 
over the Central High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Saturday will see a return of thunderstorm activity with a severe 
risk along with dangerous heat headlines returning across parts of 
our forecast area.  As far as Saturdays potential storms, an 
embedded short-wave transversing through the upper jet flow over the 
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region will be pushing a cold front across 
the Central Plains although model consensus is keeping the front 
north of the Oklahoma/Kansas state line before lifting and stalling 
out across northern Kansas. Moisture ascension ahead of the frontal 
boundary into destabilizing air may be sufficient to rain/storms 
especially storms into the afternoon hours as capping erodes. Will 
have 30% storm POPs across northern into east-central Oklahoma from 
sunrise into the afternoon with the OKC Metro on the far western 
edge with 20% POPs. Any organized severe storm risks from this 
system are expected to stay well north of our forecast area in the 
Central Plains & Midwest where the the strong shear will be. However 
DCAPE values suggest some of these afternoon storms could produce 
strong to severe damaging wind gusts as a Marginal risk for severe 
storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma.  By Saturday 
evening the 20-30% storm POPs will shift north of I-40 into the 
overnight hours. Although potential afternoon storms across 
northcentral Oklahoma should keep temperatures there in double-
digits, the rest of our area will likely see a more widespread 
return of triple digit highs between 100-106 degrees with heat 
indices exceeding 105 degrees up to 109 degrees across the southern 
half of our forecast area while slightly drier air across northwest 
Oklahoma should keep their heat indices more negligible. As a result 
will have a widespread Heat Advisory Saturday afternoon along and 
south of I-40 to the Red River including all of our western north 
Texas counties.  

The upper high closes over our area on Sunday with increasing 
pressure heights as ridging builds.  This will continue our weekend 
heatwave especially into northcentral Oklahoma with no storm 
activity expected.  Will likely see another widespread Heat Advisory 
on Sunday and will likely extend further north of I-40 into portions 
of northern Oklahoma. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The subtropical ridge will continue to move eastward toward the 
southeast United States for next week. The Southern Plains will be
on the western periphery of the ridge with a strong low-level 
thermal ridge remaining in place. As a result, above-normal 
temperatures are likely with high temperatures in the 90s to mid 
100s deg F. Probabilistic guidance indicates little temperature 
spread through Wednesday, which indicates high confidence of 
above-normal temperatures (e.g., the 10th percentile is above- 
normal). 

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday afternoon
with a strengthening surface pressure gradient resulting in 
breezy southerly winds. 

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to south to 
southwest flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge), where there 
will be occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms from 
remnant convection or nearby frontal boundaries. Currently, the 
highest chance of this occurring is around midweek (Tuesday and 
Wednesday).

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A storm complex currently poised to enter northern Kansas may 
reach north-central Oklahoma later this morning (after 12Z), and
PROB30's with MVFR conditions have been added to KPNC/KSWO for 
this potential. Should this solution verify, the resulting storm
outflow is anticipated to push towards KWWR to KOKC to perhaps
KDUA. Strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible by
late afternoon near the boundary and again late evening near the
effective cold front across northern Oklahoma. Large hail up to
the size of golf-balls and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph appear
possible with the strongest storms (which are prog'd over northern
Oklahoma by evening). There is considerable uncertainty on where
the outflow boundary is positioned by afternoon, and therefore
placement of storms by late-afternoon.

Thompson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  74  99  74 /  20  10   0   0 
Hobart OK        103  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX 104  76 103  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK          101  71 101  73 /  10  40   0   0 
Ponca City OK     94  70  97  72 /  40  30  20   0 
Durant OK        102  75 101  75 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for OKZ021>025-027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260912T0548.txt