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768
FXUS64 KOUN 111756
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1156 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Temperatures plunge into the 30s / 40s on Sunday (otherwise near
or above normal for the rest of the week)
- Dry through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
We're monitoring transient, marginal fire weather conditions again
today. Southwest surface flow is allowing us to warm up quite
efficiently. This, counter-balanced with increased moisture is
expected to result in a similar RH setup to yesterday. The current
forecast calls for RH's near 20 percent in western north Texas with
an axis of 20-25 percent along a corridor parallel to and just
southeast of I-44. That said, some of our more extreme models bring
RH's down into the mid teens across western north Texas.
Winds are breezy (15 to 20 mph) through much of southwest and
central Oklahoma, though this is expected to peak around noon, then
begin decreasing through the afternoon as the low level jet departs.
This will help keep peak winds and minimum RH's from lining up
temporally.
Overall, the highest chances (moderate) for elevated RFTI's are in
western north Texas with lower chances along that corridor southeast
of I-44.
Tonight we'll see temperatures fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s
with light winds. Winds will begin to shift to northerly as a front
enters northern Oklahoma overnight.
Day
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Friday and Saturday will be cooler (closer to seasonable) after the
passage of the cold front, with a temperature gradient of lower 50s
in north central Oklahoma to the low to mid 60s in western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma. Post-frontal winds on Friday will
likely be breezy again, but cooler temperatures should help minimize
fire concerns.
Low temperatures will be decreasing through this period. Friday
night's low will be in the upper 20s (northern OK) to the upper 30s
(southeast OK). A second cold front comes through Saturday night,
bringing Saturday night's lows down into the mid teens (northern OK)
to mid 20s (southern OK / western north TX). Wind chills will be in
the single digits to mid teens.
Day
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
The colder temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the mid
30s to mid 40s across the area. These temperatures are ~15 degrees
below average. The even colder wind chills will continue during at
least part of the day Sunday.
Southerly winds are expected to return Sunday night with
temperatures back into the 50s and 60s on Monday. The warmer
temperatures are expected to continue into at least the middle of
next week.
Models show a pattern shift towards the middle of next week with a
southern stream shortwave moving across the region Tuesday. However,
despite this shortwave and the multiple cold front passages over the
next 7 days, the chances for any precipitation are very low with
most if not all of the fa expected to remain dry into at least the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Gusty south/southwest winds will continue through the afternoon
before subsiding near sunset. A cold front will bring a northerly
wind shift late tonight into Friday morning. Skies will be mostly
clear other than some occasional high cirrus.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 42 56 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 39 60 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 41 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 38 55 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 39 52 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 42 65 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251211T1756.txt
866
FXUS64 KOUN 111721
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1121 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Above-average temperatures through Friday; turning cooler by
this weekend.
- Dry through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Cool start to the day with morning lows in the 30s across the area.
Breezy southwest winds are expected to develop Thursday as pressure
gradient increases across the region. The southwest winds along with
mostly/partly sunny skies and downslope flow will lead to another
warm day with highs in the 70s (low possibly mid 70s) in western
parts of the fa with highs in the mid/upper 60s across the rest of
the fa. These temperatures will once again be 10-15 degrees above
average for this time of year.
Dewpoints are expected to increase Thursday which will keep RH
values from dropping too low but depending on the speed of the
dewpoint increase there is a low chance that some areas of elevated
fire weather conditions may develop. Confidence on this happening is
low but not out of the question especially with the breezy southwest
winds and warmer temperatures expected Thursday. Will not issue a
Fire Danger Statement (RFD) due to the low confidence but conditions
will need to be monitored for the potential need for one.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Models show a 90-100 knot 500 mb jet moving across the Northern
Plains which will cause a weak cold front to move across the area
Thursday night into Friday. Breezy north to northeast winds are
expected behind the front. The airmass behind the front will also
lead to cooler, compared to Thursday, temperatures for Friday and
Saturday with highs in the 50s and low/mid 60s. Despite these
temperatures being cooler, the forecast highs are still about 5-10
degrees above average.
A secondary front is expected to move across the area late Saturday
with breezy/gusty north to northeast winds behind the front. This
front will bring another shot of cold air to the region with lows
Saturday night in the teens (northern and central OK) to low/mid 20s
(southern OK and western north TX). These temperatures combined with
the breezy winds will lead to even colder wind chills in the single
digits and teens across the fa.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
The colder temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the mid
30s to mid 40s across the area. These temperatures are ~15 degrees
below average. The even colder wind chills will continue during at
least part of the day Sunday.
Southerly winds are expected to return Sunday night with
temperatures back into the 50s and 60s on Monday. The warmer
temperatures are expected to continue into at least the middle of
next week.
Models show a pattern shift towards the middle of next week with a
southern stream shortwave moving across the region Tuesday. However,
despite this shortwave and the multiple cold front passages over the
next 7 days, the chances for any precipitation are very low with
most if not all of the fa expected to remain dry into at least the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Gusty south/southwest winds will continue through the afternoon
before subsiding near sunset. A cold front will bring a northerly
wind shift late tonight into Friday morning. Skies will be mostly
clear other than some occasional high cirrus.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 42 55 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 39 60 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 41 65 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 38 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 39 52 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 42 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251211T1721.txt
248
FXUS64 KOUN 111140
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
540 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Above-average temperatures through Friday; turning cooler by
this weekend.
- Dry through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Cool start to the day with morning lows in the 30s across the area.
Breezy southwest winds are expected to develop Thursday as pressure
gradient increases across the region. The southwest winds along with
mostly/partly sunny skies and downslope flow will lead to another
warm day with highs in the 70s (low possibly mid 70s) in western
parts of the fa with highs in the mid/upper 60s across the rest of
the fa. These temperatures will once again be 10-15 degrees above
average for this time of year.
Dewpoints are expected to increase Thursday which will keep RH
values from dropping too low but depending on the speed of the
dewpoint increase there is a low chance that some areas of elevated
fire weather conditions may develop. Confidence on this happening is
low but not out of the question especially with the breezy southwest
winds and warmer temperatures expected Thursday. Will not issue a
Fire Danger Statement (RFD) due to the low confidence but conditions
will need to be monitored for the potential need for one.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Models show a 90-100 knot 500 mb jet moving across the Northern
Plains which will cause a weak cold front to move across the area
Thursday night into Friday. Breezy north to northeast winds are
expected behind the front. The airmass behind the front will also
lead to cooler, compared to Thursday, temperatures for Friday and
Saturday with highs in the 50s and low/mid 60s. Despite these
temperatures being cooler, the forecast highs are still about 5-10
degrees above average.
A secondary front is expected to move across the area late Saturday
with breezy/gusty north to northeast winds behind the front. This
front will bring another shot of cold air to the region with lows
Saturday night in the teens (northern and central OK) to low/mid 20s
(southern OK and western north TX). These temperatures combined with
the breezy winds will lead to even colder wind chills in the single
digits and teens across the fa.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
The colder temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the mid
30s to mid 40s across the area. These temperatures are ~15 degrees
below average. The even colder wind chills will continue during at
least part of the day Sunday.
Southerly winds are expected to return Sunday night with
temperatures back into the 50s and 60s on Monday. The warmer
temperatures are expected to continue into at least the middle of
next week.
Models show a pattern shift towards the middle of next week with a
southern stream shortwave moving across the region Tuesday. However,
despite this shortwave and the multiple cold front passages over the
next 7 days, the chances for any precipitation are very low with
most if not all of the fa expected to remain dry into at least the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Low-level winds shear of 30 to 45 knots remains possible through
mid-morning at all sites with an increased low-level jet.
Southerly surface winds will increase this morning with VFR
conditions at all sites. Southerly winds will relax this
afternoon before a cold front brings a return to northerly winds
across the northern Oklahoma sites early tomorrow morning and
through the central Oklahoma sites shortly before daybreak. The
front will be through all sites by mid-morning Friday with
increasing northerly winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 64 42 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 67 39 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 69 41 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 73 38 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 65 40 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 63 43 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...23
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251211T1140.txt
305
FXUS64 KOUN 110619
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1219 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Above-average temperatures through Friday; turning cooler by
this weekend.
- Dry through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Cool start to the day with morning lows in the 30s across the area.
Breezy southwest winds are expected to develop Thursday as pressure
gradient increases across the region. The southwest winds along with
mostly/partly sunny skies and downslope flow will lead to another
warm day with highs in the 70s (low possibly mid 70s) in western
parts of the fa with highs in the mid/upper 60s across the rest of
the fa. These temperatures will once again be 10-15 degrees above
average for this time of year.
Dewpoints are expected to increase Thursday which will keep RH
values from dropping too low but depending on the speed of the
dewpoint increase there is a low chance that some areas of elevated
fire weather conditions may develop. Confidence on this happening is
low but not out of the question especially with the breezy southwest
winds and warmer temperatures expected Thursday. Will not issue a
Fire Danger Statement (RFD) due to the low confidence but conditions
will need to be monitored for the potential need for one.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Models show a 90-100 knot 500 mb jet moving across the Northern
Plains which will cause a weak cold front to move across the area
Thursday night into Friday. Breezy north to northeast winds are
expected behind the front. The airmass behind the front will also
lead to cooler, compared to Thursday, temperatures for Friday and
Saturday with highs in the 50s and low/mid 60s. Despite these
temperatures being cooler, the forecast highs are still about 5-10
degrees above average.
A secondary front is expected to move across the area late Saturday
with breezy/gusty north to northeast winds behind the front. This
front will bring another shot of cold air to the region with lows
Saturday night in the teens (northern and central OK) to low/mid 20s
(southern OK and western north TX). These temperatures combined with
the breezy winds will lead to even colder wind chills in the single
digits and teens across the fa.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
The colder temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the mid
30s to mid 40s across the area. These temperatures are ~15 degrees
below average. The even colder wind chills will continue during at
least part of the day Sunday.
Southerly winds are expected to return Sunday night with
temperatures back into the 50s and 60s on Monday. The warmer
temperatures are expected to continue into at least the middle of
next week.
Models show a pattern shift towards the middle of next week with a
southern stream shortwave moving across the region Tuesday. However,
despite this shortwave and the multiple cold front passages over the
next 7 days, the chances for any precipitation are very low with
most if not all of the fa expected to remain dry into at least the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 945 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the period.
Winds will continue to be light and variable through the morning.
LLWS is expected to impact TAF sites across northern, central and
southwestern Oklahoma overnight through the early morning hours
until surface winds increase. A weak front will start to move into
northwest Oklahoma by the end of the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 64 42 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 67 39 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 69 41 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 73 38 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 65 40 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 63 43 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251211T0619.txt
500
FXUS64 KOUN 110347
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
947 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 945 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
- Above-average temperatures through Friday; turning cooler by
this weekend.
- Dry through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Gusty winds behind the front are expected to gradually come down
this afternoon, becoming light by evening. Until then, we may see a
few hours of elevated fire weather concerns in southwest Oklahoma
and western north Texas where these gusty winds coincide with RH
values of 20 to 25 percent. Overnight, winds will be light and
coming back around to southerly.
Highs today will be in the 50s and lower 60s under mostly sunny
skies. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s.
Day
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Southwest surface flow and sunny skies will bring warmer
temperatures tomorrow (highs in the 60s to lower 70s). Some hi-res
guidance suggest a brief period of gusty winds in the morning as a
low level feature passes eastward over the area. Confidence is lower
than normal for the amplitude and duration of these higher winds.
Another cold front will pass through early Friday, bringing
temperatures back down into the 50s to mid 60s again. Breezy
north winds will again be possible behind the front during the day.
Day
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Models show a secondary front moving across the area over the
weekend which will bring a re-enforcing shot of cool air leading to
the coldest temperatures of the next 7 days on Sunday. Highs Sunday
are expected to range from the upper 30s in north central OK to
around 50 along the Red River which will be 5 to 10 degrees below
average.
Models show a bit of a pattern change next week with a southern
stream system moving across the region early/mid next week. This
system brings a low chance for some precipitation to at least SE
parts of the fa but overall the forecast will remain dry for most
into the middle of next week.
Southerly winds and near to above average temperatures are also
expected to return early next week with highs in the 50s and 60s
although some locations could see temperatures hovering around 70 by
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 945 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the period.
Winds will continue to be light and variable through the morning.
LLWS is expected to impact TAF sites across northern, central and
southwestern Oklahoma overnight through the early morning hours
until surface winds increase. A weak front will start to move into
northwest Oklahoma by the end of the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 55 37 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 58 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 61 36 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 55 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 54 34 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 60 36 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251211T0347.txt
012
FXUS64 KOUN 102329
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
529 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
- Above-average temperatures through Friday; turning cooler by
this weekend.
- Dry through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Gusty winds behind the front are expected to gradually come down
this afternoon, becoming light by evening. Until then, we may see a
few hours of elevated fire weather concerns in southwest Oklahoma
and western north Texas where these gusty winds coincide with RH
values of 20 to 25 percent. Overnight, winds will be light and
coming back around to southerly.
Highs today will be in the 50s and lower 60s under mostly sunny
skies. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s.
Day
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Southwest surface flow and sunny skies will bring warmer
temperatures tomorrow (highs in the 60s to lower 70s). Some hi-res
guidance suggest a brief period of gusty winds in the morning as a
low level feature passes eastward over the area. Confidence is lower
than normal for the amplitude and duration of these higher winds.
Another cold front will pass through early Friday, bringing
temperatures back down into the 50s to mid 60s again. Breezy
north winds will again be possible behind the front during the day.
Day
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Models show a secondary front moving across the area over the
weekend which will bring a re-enforcing shot of cool air leading to
the coldest temperatures of the next 7 days on Sunday. Highs Sunday
are expected to range from the upper 30s in north central OK to
around 50 along the Red River which will be 5 to 10 degrees below
average.
Models show a bit of a pattern change next week with a southern
stream system moving across the region early/mid next week. This
system brings a low chance for some precipitation to at least SE
parts of the fa but overall the forecast will remain dry for most
into the middle of next week.
Southerly winds and near to above average temperatures are also
expected to return early next week with highs in the 50s and 60s
although some locations could see temperatures hovering around 70 by
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
VFR conditions will continue with only high clouds expected.
Winds will become light and variable this evening as they
transition toward the south/southwest. Winds will become gusty by
mid-morning with the potential for some low-level wind shear.
Winds will weaken toward the end of the TAF period.
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 37 63 42 56 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 35 67 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 36 68 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 36 71 38 55 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 34 65 39 52 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 36 63 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251210T2329.txt
