541 
ACUS02 KWNS 281701
SWODY2
SPC AC 281659

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper
MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves
quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure
will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a
front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this
front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of
the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms
likely near the Sabine Valley.

Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts
associated with high-based convection over parts of MT.

...TX into LA...
An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this
will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging
winds will be possible with this system given the expected high
degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than
currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage
prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well
as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust
potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system
moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days
storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind
probabilities at this time.

Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will
form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled
out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any
residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms.

...Central and eastern MT...
Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent
shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT.
Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply
mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may
support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of
enhancing wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/28/2024

$$


File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20240428T1701.txt



751 
ACUS02 KWNS 280559
SWODY2
SPC AC 280557

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of
the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on
Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to
move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough
and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest
toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. 

...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley...
A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the
ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet
and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the
timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could
support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a
tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to
wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward
extent. 

...Parts of the southern Plains...
A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of
Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of
this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in
moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and
perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible
as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some
storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat
for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal
Risk has been maintained for this regime. 

There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near
the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest
OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate
wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty
regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable
low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this
area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this
regime. 

...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes
region...
A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH
Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach
parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate
deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front,
destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness
and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be
ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the
development of adequate instability remains too low to include
probabilities.

..Dean.. 04/28/2024

$$


File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20240428T0559.txt