404 
ACUS02 KWNS 300456
SWODY2
SPC AC 300454

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle
Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the western
Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output offers little change concerning the forecast
evolution of the large-scale pattern through this period. 
Substantive amplification within the split westerlies emanating from
the mid-latitude Pacific still appears probable Friday through
Friday night, including building ridging at mid-levels along an axis
west of 140W longitude into northwestern British Columbia, and on a
larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S.
Rockies.  Within the larger-scale ridging, a modest mid-level
trough and developing embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the
west of the U.S. Pacific coast.  At the same time, broad upper
ridging may gradually build across the subtropical eastern Pacific
toward Baja California.

Downstream, a confluent regime will be maintained across
and east of the Rockies, and likely become enhanced at mid-levels
across the southern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley,
as short wave troughing digs to the southwest of an elongated area
of lower heights slowly shifting eastward through the
Ontario/Quebec/Great Lakes and Northeast vicinity.

A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by
12Z Friday probably will undergo shearing as it progresses through
the confluence to the south of the digging trough.  However, as a
reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern
Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance
suggests that forcing for ascent may remain sufficient to support a
developing wave along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas
coastal areas through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday
afternoon through Friday night.

...Middle Texas coastal plain through western Florida Panhandle...
Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by warm advection along and to

the cool side of the surface front, may support a swath of mostly
weak thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern
Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night.  Forecast soundings
continue to indicate thermodynamic profiles with little potential to
support severe hail and wind, except perhaps in immediate proximity
to the surface front.  Warm elevated mixed-layer air, particularly
across parts of Deep South Texas, may tend to inhibit thunderstorm
initiation to the south of the front.

Based on latest model output, severe weather potential for this
period appears a bit more conditional, dependent upon both the
evolution of the surface wave and the degree of destabilization
along the frontal zone, which remain uncertain.  However, it still
appears possible that strengthening deep-layer shear and forcing for
ascent near the frontal wave could support isolated supercell
development across the middle Texas coastal plain by Friday
afternoon, across southeastern Louisiana parishes by late Friday
evening, and into the western Florida Panhandle toward 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 04/30/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20260430T0456.txt



869 
ACUS02 KWNS 291732
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to marginally severe storms may impact the Big
Bend region into central Texas late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.

...Synopsis...
Strong mid-level winds will persist along/near a surface front in
central/south Texas. Through the period, a compact shortwave trough
will approach the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend, arriving late Thursday into
Friday morning. A very moist airmass will be in place near/south of
the surface boundary. Isolated to widely scattered strong/marginally
severe storms may occur during the afternoon into the overnight.

...Hill Country/Central Texas...
A very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) near and south of
the surface boundary will be in place. As this airmass interacts
with the terrain in northern Mexico, a couple of strong to severe
storms may move into the Rio Grande Valley region and into the
Edwards Plateau/Hill Country. A less certain scenario will be storms
developing on the boundary more towards parts of central Texas.
Guidance does suggest some potential cloud clearing and surface
heating that could support modest surface-based buoyancy. Forcing
for ascent will be weak during the afternoon and largely depend on
frontal convergence. In either case, strong westerly mid-level flow
and sufficient mid-level lapse rates would support marginally severe
hail with the strongest activity. Additional development could occur
overnight as the upper trough approaches the Big Bend region. These
elevated storms would pose a similar marginal hail threat.

...Big Bend...
During the afternoon, a modest dryline feature will be situated
within the Permian Basin/Big Bend regions. This dryline circulation
is not expected to be overly strong given the cloud cover
anticipated, though downslope warming/drying will still lead to a
sharp moisture gradient. It is possible an isolated storm or two
could develop on this boundary, but confidence is not high given the
shortwave ridging that will be present during the afternoon. There
is higher confidence in storms initiating within the Davis Mountains
and nearby higher terrain in Mexico as the shortwave trough
approaches overnight Thursday. Moist, upslope flow into the region
will increase by mid evening. Isolated to widely scattered supercell
structures are possible, though overall intensity of storms may be
limited by the cooler temperatures by that point in the period.
Marginally severe hail would be the main concern with this activity.
Some guidance does suggest the development of linear structures
progressing eastward toward the Edwards plateau. Potential for wind
gusts with that activity appears low given near-surface stability
evident in forecast soundings.

..Wendt.. 04/29/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20260429T1732.txt