971 
ACUS02 KWNS 090551
SWODY2
SPC AC 090550

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX
TRANS-PECOS...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridor for a few severe storms, primarily in the
form of large hail, is across the Texas Trans-Pecos during the late
afternoon Tuesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from
southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and in parts of the
Northwest.

...Southeast NM and southwest TX...
Strong heating is anticipated over the region Tuesday along the
western periphery of seasonably rich low-level moisture. Combined
with steep mid-level lapse rates, large buoyancy with MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg is expected. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the region during the afternoon. In combination with
diurnal orographic ascent, scattered to eventually widespread
thunderstorm development is anticipated. A narrow belt of moderate
mid-level westerlies, centered on the Trans-Pecos, should support a
few supercells in the late afternoon. Large hail will likely be the
primary hazard with sub-10 percent coverage of very large hail
possible. Outside of the Trans-Pecos, sporadic severe wind/hail will
be possible with low confidence on organized upscale growth along
the Rio Grande on Tuesday evening. 

...South-central TX to south LA...
A loosely-organized MCS should be ongoing in south-central TX at 12Z
Tuesday. Within a weakly forced and nebulous large-scale pattern,
guidance has a fair amount of spread with subsequent evolution
through the day Tuesday. It is plausible that intensification may
occur by midday along the residual outflow, along with downstream
development towards a quasi-stationary front in LA. Deep-layer shear
will be modest, especially outside of any localized enhancement near
the remnant MCV. Confidence is too low to warrant greater than level
1-MRGL risk probabilities at this time, but isolated severe
wind/hail remains possible.

...Mid/South Atlantic Coast...
A broad mid/upper trough will extend from eastern ON to the OH/TN
Valleys at 12Z Tuesday. The southern extent of this trough will
gradually dampen through the period with slowly rising mid-level
heights. A broad rain swath with embedded thunderstorms is expected
to be ongoing from the Mid-Atlantic northward, where stronger
deep-layer flow will exist. Diurnal destabilization appears quite
limited and locally strong gusts might occur along the southern
periphery of this morning activity.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible into the afternoon along parts
of the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. Despite ample boundary-layer
moisture/heating, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit updraft
intensity and overall convective coverage. Locally strong gusts
capable of wind damage will be possible with any sustained storms.
Coverage is likely to be less compared to recent days. 

...Northwest...
Low-amplitude mid/upper ridging will break down as a shortwave
trough progresses into northern CA/southwest OR by 12Z Wednesday. As
this process occurs, mid to upper-level flow will become more
westerly with moderate speed shear across the northern Rockies.
Despite weak buoyancy, scattered high-based thunderstorms are
expected. The strongest of these may attain low-end supercell
structure from western to south-central MT during the late afternoon
to early evening. Across southern OR, strengthening large-scale
ascent with approach of the shortwave trough should support
scattered late afternoon to evening storms. High-based multicells to
a couple brief supercells are possible. Isolated, marginally severe
wind/hail events may occur in both regimes.

..Grams.. 06/09/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20250609T0551.txt



576 
ACUS02 KWNS 081731
SWODY2
SPC AC 081729

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
While there is some uncertainty regarding the intensity/organization
and location of the overnight MCS early Monday morning, the general
consensus within the guidance places its associated vorticity max
and surface low over the eastern vicinity. Expectation is then for
this low and vorticity max to continue eastward into the moist and
moderately buoyant airmass downstream across the Southeast.
Thunderstorms appear likely in the vicinity of these features,
including well downstream during the afternoon as boundary layer
destabilizes and along the trailing composite outflow that will
likely maintain its integrity. Damaging gusts will be the primary
risk, particularly across central MS/AL where a corridor of greater
severe potential may materialize. Uncertainty (primarily related to
limited predictability of the system's speed) in this corridor
remains too high to outline any higher probabilities with this
outlook, but an upgrade may be needed in later outlooks.

...OH/TN Valleys...
A plume of moderate to high PWs is forecast extend along the frontal
zone from the Mid-South northeastward through the middle OH Valley
Monday morning. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through
the base of a stacked cyclone moving from the  Upper Midwest into
the Upper Great Lakes. This shortwave will encourage an eastward
push to the cold front, while also contributing to strengthening
mid-level flow across the region. The stronger winds will likely be
confined to the mid/upper OH Valley, and mostly behind the front,
with the most likely area of some overlap over OH and PA. However,
this region will be displaced north of the better buoyancy, which is
anticipated farther south over KY and TN. This displacement should
temper the overall storm severity, but occasionally strong to severe
are still possible throughout this entire corridor. Scattered
damaging winds will be the primary risk, although lower-probability
tornado and isolated severe hail risks also exist.

...Southern High Plains...
The airmass across the region will likely begin the period behind
the outflow of an extensive overnight MCS. However, these relatively
cool and dry conditions are expected to modify quickly amid strong
heating. A sharpening lee trough will also encourage backing
low-level flow throughout the day, from northerly to easterly (or
even southeasterly), with some low-level moisture advection
possible. These factors could allow convection that initially
develops over the higher terrain to persist eastward/southeastward
into more of the High Plains, with an attendant threat for strong
gusts. The modifying outflow could act as a favorable corridor for
forward propagation and increase damaging gust potential during the
evening.

...Southwest/Central/Southeast TX...
The outflow of an extensive overnight MCS will likely arc from
northern LA through central TX into southwest TX early Monday
morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this boundary as
it gradually shifts southward throughout the day. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected across southeast TX, with warm
low/mid-levels and associated capping should limit the overall
thunderstorm coverage westward. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are
possible with any storms that develop.

...Northwest TX...
Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level warm
theta-e advection north of the front on Monday. Sufficient effective
bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for a few storms capable
of severe hail.

..Mosier.. 06/08/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20250608T1731.txt