Home
748
FXUS64 KTSA 030731
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
231 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
- Severe storm chances return this morning across SE OK and
W-Central AR.
- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and flood
potential increasing, especially across SE OK and W-Central
AR.
- Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
mixing with snow Sunday morning. A freeze is expected in some
locations Sunday or Monday mornings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Deep upper level troughing continues across the western CONUS with
warm moist advection continuing at the low levels south of a
stalled frontal boundary draped over far southeast Oklahoma into
northern Texas. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
already initiating over north Texas early this morning on the
leading edge of deeper moisture return in the wake of yesterday's
activity. This activity will spread northward through the morning
hours and spread over much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas throughout the day today. South of the surface boundary,
increasing instability and shear will result in a continued threat
for severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
couple tornadoes possible near the Red River where more surface
based development is more likely. North of the boundary, over much
of the rest of the forecast area, primarily showery weather with
embedded thunderstorms will overtake the region this morning. This
wave of activity should exit the area from west to east during the
afternoon hours, with some lingering light showers possible into
the evening. The precipitation and persistent cloud cover will
result in cooler temperatures today, with most locations seeing
highs in the 60s this afternoon.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A brief lull in activity is expected tonight before the next round
of rain/storms arrives Friday morning. The surface frontal
boundary is progged to lift northward some by Friday morning,
possibly getting as far north as the I-44 corridor. The slow
moving upper trough will begin to eject out into the Southern
Plains during the day Friday, with several rounds of rain and
thunderstorms once again overspreading the region. In addition to
the severe threat, a heavy rain and flooding threat will begin to
evolve from Friday through early Sunday as precipitable water
values near seasonal records for our area south of the warm front.
The heaviest rain is expected to focus near and south of the warm
front across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.
Widespread 4-6" of rain can be expected in this region with
locally up to 10" possible in some locations. Portions of
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas will see less in the
way of rainfall totals, but still a good soaking rain for the
region through Saturday night. The Flood Watch will continue as
is, as both flash flooding and mainstem river flooding will become
a bigger problem as the event unfolds. The severe threat will
also be maintained through this time period as The ECMWF EFI
instability/shear numbers are near the maximum from Thursday
through Saturday across southeast Oklahoma.
As the trough axis finally shifts east of the region on Sunday, an
anomalously cold airmass will filter in in its wake. A few of the
showers left over early Sunday morning as the system exits could
even briefly change to snow across northern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. With the time of year warm ground temperatures, very
little to no impact is expected from any wintry precip Sunday
morning at this point. Still, temperatures will notably cooler
heading through the first part of next week, with a frost/freeze
possible on Sunday and Monday morning across the northern half of
the forecast area. The forecast dries out through the rest of the
period as northwest flow aloft settles over the region, keeping
temperatures slow to warm through much of next week.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Ongoing VFR conditions will deteriorate area wide by sunrise as
widespread precip expand quickly northeastward across the region.
Expectation is a shield of light to moderate rain with embedded
thunderstorms during the morning hours especially from SE OK
through NW AR. Thereafter the heavier precip may become less
widespread however widespread light showers and drizzle are likely
with ceilings lowering into low MVFR to IFR levels through the
day. Widespread IFR ceilings likely develop after sunset.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 49 61 48 / 90 60 100 80
FSM 65 56 73 57 / 90 80 100 100
MLC 62 54 67 51 / 90 80 100 90
BVO 61 46 61 44 / 90 60 100 70
FYV 63 51 70 50 / 90 70 100 90
BYV 60 51 66 50 / 90 70 100 90
MKO 61 52 63 48 / 90 60 100 90
MIO 57 49 60 46 / 90 70 100 80
F10 61 51 61 48 / 100 70 100 90
HHW 64 57 72 55 / 100 90 100 100
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for OKZ049-
053-063-068>076.
AR...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for ARZ001-
002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250403T0731.txt
306
FXUS64 KTSA 030522
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe storm chances return late tonight into Thursday
morning across SE OK and W-Central AR.
- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and flood
potential increasing, especially across SE OK and W-Central
AR.
- Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
mixing with snow Sunday morning. A freeze is expected in some
locations Sunday or Monday mornings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Storms that lingered across southeast OK and northwest AR earlier
this afternoon have since shifted east of the forecast area,
resulting in mostly benign weather conditions early this evening.
The frontal boundary that pushed through much of area this
morning has stalled across portions of northwest AR, extending
just south of the Red River. The front should gradually lift back
northward as the night progresses, positioning near or just north
of the Red River by daybreak Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north
of this pseudo-stationary/warm frontal boundary well after
midnight tonight, closer to sunrise Thursday. A few thunderstorms
may become marginally severe. Elevated instability across far
southern/southeastern OK is expected to increase between 1000-1500
J/kg by or just after midnight. With sufficient bulk shear
already in place, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazards if the elevated thunderstorms can get organized.
Most of the severe threat will likely remain south of I-40 and
concentrated across Pushmataha, Choctaw, and southern portions of
Le Flore, Latimer, and Pittsburg counties.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A deep upper level trough will remain to the west of the area
Thursday through Saturday, with continuous warm and moist advection
resulting in additional waves of showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will be ongoing Thursday morning, focusing across
southeast OK and west-central AR. Storms will then spread north
by the late morning or early afternoon. The severe threat will be
lower Thursday than today for several reasons. Perhaps most
importantly, the near surface boundary is expected to be south of
the forecast area, which would limit our access to the most
unstable air. Even so, a few embedded lines of strong to severe
storms may develop, with wind or hail being relatively more likely
threats. Shower and storm activity will then diminish Thursday
evening into Friday morning.
The next period of activity will arrive Friday morning as the low
level jet ramps up. By this time, the low level boundary will be
lifting to the north, perhaps as far north as a line from Tulsa
through Joplin. Areas near and south of this boundary will see a
dual severe and flood threat. In terms of severe potential, the
low level jet will result in significantly curved hodographs, with
significantly instability south of the boundary. The upper level
winds at and above 500 hPa will be near the 99th percentile for
this time of year, which will aid in storm ventilation. Based on
these factors, severe weather may develop. Precipitable water and
integrated vapor transport will remain near the climatological
max for this time of year, so widespread heavy rain is
anticipated. The heaviest rain is expected to focus across
southeast OK into west- central AR.
Portions of northeast OK may dry out Friday evening, but rain may
continue for southeast OK and northwest AR into Saturday when the
next upper level wave arrives. Once again, all areas will see
rain, but the heavier rainfall will focus across the southeast
portions of the forecast area. Rain finally winds down by Sunday
morning. Northeast OK will see a storm total of 2-4", with 4-6"
for the rest of the area. If localized banding of heavy rainfall
is persistent, locally up to 8" of rain could occur.
Unsurprisingly, the EPS EFI has values of 0.8 to 0.9 for Friday
and Saturday overlapping the axis of heaviest rainfall. This will
result in both river and flash flooding. Numerous rivers are
expected to see flooding, with localized moderate to major
flooding possible if any of these corridors of heaviest rain
intersect flood susceptible basins. Flash Flooding would be
expected for the same reasons. A Flood Watch was issued for the
highest confidence threat corridors, but may need to be expanded
later depending on forecast trends.
It's worth noting that the air will be anomalously cool on the
backside of the trough. Some guidance even mixes or turns rain to
snow for a few locations north of I-40 Sunday morning. While no
impacts are expected, it nonetheless represents a dramatic swing
in sensible conditions. A minor frost or freeze may also occur
north of I-40 for typically cold locations Sunday or Monday
morning. The forecast looks to dry out through at least the first
half of next week, with primarily northwest flow aloft keeping
temperatures slow to warm through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Ongoing VFR conditions will deteriorate area wide by sunrise as
widespread precip expand quickly northeastward across the region.
Expectation is a shield of light to moderate rain with embedded
thunderstorms during the morning hours especially from SE OK
through NW AR. Thereafter the heavier precip may become less
widespread however widespread light showers and drizzle are likely
with ceilings lowering into low MVFR to IFR levels through the
day. Widespread IFR ceilings likely develop after sunset.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 61 48 53 / 50 100 80 90
FSM 57 77 57 64 / 70 100 100 100
MLC 56 71 51 58 / 70 100 90 100
BVO 46 58 44 53 / 30 100 70 90
FYV 52 73 50 59 / 60 100 90 100
BYV 51 69 50 55 / 50 100 90 100
MKO 53 66 48 56 / 60 100 90 100
MIO 50 60 46 52 / 40 100 80 90
F10 52 62 48 54 / 60 100 90 100
HHW 60 74 55 62 / 90 100 100 90
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for OKZ049-
053-063-068>076.
AR...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for ARZ001-
002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250403T0522.txt
321
FXUS64 KTSA 030237
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
937 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 937 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe storm chances return late tonight into Thursday
morning across SE OK and W-Central AR.
- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and flood
potential increasing, especially across SE OK and W-Central
AR.
- Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
mixing with snow Sunday morning. A freeze is expected in some
locations Sunday or Monday mornings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Storms that lingered across southeast OK and northwest AR earlier
this afternoon have since shifted east of the forecast area,
resulting in mostly benign weather conditions early this evening.
The frontal boundary that pushed through much of area this
morning has stalled across portions of northwest AR, extending
just south of the Red River. The front should gradually lift back
northward as the night progresses, positioning near or just north
of the Red River by daybreak Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north
of this pseudo-stationary/warm frontal boundary well after
midnight tonight, closer to sunrise Thursday. A few thunderstorms
may become marginally severe. Elevated instability across far
southern/southeastern OK is expected to increase between 1000-1500
J/kg by or just after midnight. With sufficient bulk shear
already in place, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazards if the elevated thunderstorms can get organized.
Most of the severe threat will likely remain south of I-40 and
concentrated across Pushmataha, Choctaw, and southern portions of
Le Flore, Latimer, and Pittsburg counties.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A deep upper level trough will remain to the west of the area
Thursday through Saturday, with continuous warm and moist advection
resulting in additional waves of showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will be ongoing Thursday morning, focusing across
southeast OK and west-central AR. Storms will then spread north
by the late morning or early afternoon. The severe threat will be
lower Thursday than today for several reasons. Perhaps most
importantly, the near surface boundary is expected to be south of
the forecast area, which would limit our access to the most
unstable air. Even so, a few embedded lines of strong to severe
storms may develop, with wind or hail being relatively more likely
threats. Shower and storm activity will then diminish Thursday
evening into Friday morning.
The next period of activity will arrive Friday morning as the low
level jet ramps up. By this time, the low level boundary will be
lifting to the north, perhaps as far north as a line from Tulsa
through Joplin. Areas near and south of this boundary will see a
dual severe and flood threat. In terms of severe potential, the
low level jet will result in significantly curved hodographs, with
significantly instability south of the boundary. The upper level
winds at and above 500 hPa will be near the 99th percentile for
this time of year, which will aid in storm ventilation. Based on
these factors, severe weather may develop. Precipitable water and
integrated vapor transport will remain near the climatological
max for this time of year, so widespread heavy rain is
anticipated. The heaviest rain is expected to focus across
southeast OK into west- central AR.
Portions of northeast OK may dry out Friday evening, but rain may
continue for southeast OK and northwest AR into Saturday when the
next upper level wave arrives. Once again, all areas will see
rain, but the heavier rainfall will focus across the southeast
portions of the forecast area. Rain finally winds down by Sunday
morning. Northeast OK will see a storm total of 2-4", with 4-6"
for the rest of the area. If localized banding of heavy rainfall
is persistent, locally up to 8" of rain could occur.
Unsurprisingly, the EPS EFI has values of 0.8 to 0.9 for Friday
and Saturday overlapping the axis of heaviest rainfall. This will
result in both river and flash flooding. Numerous rivers are
expected to see flooding, with localized moderate to major
flooding possible if any of these corridors of heaviest rain
intersect flood susceptible basins. Flash Flooding would be
expected for the same reasons. A Flood Watch was issued for the
highest confidence threat corridors, but may need to be expanded
later depending on forecast trends.
It's worth noting that the air will be anomalously cool on the
backside of the trough. Some guidance even mixes or turns rain to
snow for a few locations north of I-40 Sunday morning. While no
impacts are expected, it nonetheless represents a dramatic swing
in sensible conditions. A minor frost or freeze may also occur
north of I-40 for typically cold locations Sunday or Monday
morning. The forecast looks to dry out through at least the first
half of next week, with primarily northwest flow aloft keeping
temperatures slow to warm through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail into Thursday morning, with ceilings
lowering to MVFR from south to north during the day Thursday.
Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late
tonight, initially potentially affecting KMLC and KFSM, with a
spread to the north during the day Thursday. The greatest
coverage of precipitation will be at the southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 51 62 50 61 / 20 80 50 100
FSM 55 65 57 77 / 50 90 70 100
MLC 52 64 56 71 / 70 90 70 100
BVO 45 62 46 58 / 20 80 30 100
FYV 48 64 52 73 / 30 80 60 100
BYV 50 62 51 69 / 30 80 50 100
MKO 51 63 53 66 / 30 80 60 100
MIO 49 59 50 60 / 20 80 40 100
F10 50 62 52 62 / 40 90 60 100
HHW 55 66 60 74 / 80 90 90 100
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday morning for
OKZ049-053-063-068>076.
AR...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday morning for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250403T0237.txt
645
FXUS64 KTSA 022346
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe storm chances diminish this afternoon, but return
tonight into Thursday morning across SE OK and W-Central AR.
- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and flood
potential increasing, especially across SE OK and W-Central
AR.
- Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
mixing with snow Sunday morning. A freeze is expected in some
locations Sunday or Monday mornings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Lingering storms will exit the forecast area the next couple of
hours with clearing skies expected for all areas. Temperatures
will remain quite warm this afternoon, generally in the mid 70s to
low 80s. Dew points are dropping as drier air moves in from the
west. Breezy westerly winds will continue through sundown, and
then diminish.
Overnight tonight we will see increasing clouds as the next wave of
the storm system approaches. Showers and thunderstorms will build
across southeast OK after midnight, spreading up through most areas
southeast of I-44 by dawn. A few elevated and marginally severe
storms could develop in southeast Oklahoma, with wind and hail the
dominant threats.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A deep upper level trough will remain to the west of the area
Thursday through Saturday, with continuous warm and moist advection
resulting in additional waves of showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will be ongoing Thursday morning, focusing across
southeast OK and west-central AR. Storms will then spread north
by the late morning or early afternoon. The severe threat will be
lower Thursday than today for several reasons. Perhaps most
importantly, the near surface boundary is expected to be south of
the forecast area, which would limit our access to the most
unstable air. Even so, a few embedded lines of strong to severe
storms may develop, with wind or hail being relatively more likely
threats. Shower and storm activity will then diminish Thursday
evening into Friday morning.
The next period of activity will arrive Friday morning as the low
level jet ramps up. By this time, the low level boundary will be
lifting to the north, perhaps as far north as a line from Tulsa
through Joplin. Areas near and south of this boundary will see a
dual severe and flood threat. In terms of severe potential, the
low level jet will result in significantly curved hodographs, with
significantly instability south of the boundary. The upper level
winds at and above 500 hPa will be near the 99th percentile for
this time of year, which will aid in storm ventilation. Based on
these factors, severe weather may develop. Precipitable water and
integrated vapor transport will remain near the climatological
max for this time of year, so widespread heavy rain is
anticipated. The heaviest rain is expected to focus across
southeast OK into west- central AR.
Portions of northeast OK may dry out Friday evening, but rain may
continue for southeast OK and northwest AR into Saturday when the
next upper level wave arrives. Once again, all areas will see
rain, but the heavier rainfall will focus across the southeast
portions of the forecast area. Rain finally winds down by Sunday
morning. Northeast OK will see a storm total of 2-4", with 4-6"
for the rest of the area. If localized banding of heavy rainfall
is persistent, locally up to 8" of rain could occur.
Unsurprisingly, the EPS EFI has values of 0.8 to 0.9 for Friday
and Saturday overlapping the axis of heaviest rainfall. This will
result in both river and flash flooding. Numerous rivers are
expected to see flooding, with localized moderate to major
flooding possible if any of these corridors of heaviest rain
intersect flood susceptible basins. Flash Flooding would be
expected for the same reasons. A Flood Watch was issued for the
highest confidence threat corridors, but may need to be expanded
later depending on forecast trends.
It's worth noting that the air will be anomalously cool on the
backside of the trough. Some guidance even mixes or turns rain to
snow for a few locations north of I-40 Sunday morning. While no
impacts are expected, it nonetheless represents a dramatic swing
in sensible conditions. A minor frost or freeze may also occur
north of I-40 for typically cold locations Sunday or Monday
morning. The forecast looks to dry out through at least the first
half of next week, with primarily northwest flow aloft keeping
temperatures slow to warm through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail into Thursday morning, with ceilings
lowering to MVFR from south to north during the day Thursday.
Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late
tonight, initially potentially affecting KMLC and KFSM, with a
spread to the north during the day Thursday. The greatest
coverage of precipitation will be at the southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 51 62 50 61 / 20 80 50 100
FSM 55 65 57 77 / 50 90 70 100
MLC 52 64 56 71 / 70 90 70 100
BVO 45 62 46 58 / 20 80 30 100
FYV 48 64 52 73 / 30 80 60 100
BYV 50 62 51 69 / 30 80 50 100
MKO 51 63 53 66 / 30 80 60 100
MIO 49 59 50 60 / 20 80 40 100
F10 50 62 52 62 / 40 90 60 100
HHW 55 66 60 74 / 80 90 90 100
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday morning for
OKZ049-053-063-068>076.
AR...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday morning for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250402T2346.txt
180
FXUS64 KTSA 021912
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
212 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe storm chances diminish this afternoon, but return
tonight into Thursday morning across SE OK and W-Central AR.
- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and flood
potential increasing, especially across SE OK and W-Central
AR.
- Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
mixing with snow Sunday morning. A freeze is expected in some
locations Sunday or Monday mornings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Lingering storms will exit the forecast area the next couple of
hours with clearing skies expected for all areas. Temperatures
will remain quite warm this afternoon, generally in the mid 70s to
low 80s. Dew points are dropping as drier air moves in from the
west. Breezy westerly winds will continue through sundown, and
then diminish.
Overnight tonight we will see increasing clouds as the next wave of
the storm system approaches. Showers and thunderstorms will build
across southeast OK after midnight, spreading up through most areas
southeast of I-44 by dawn. A few elevated and marginally severe
storms could develop in southeast Oklahoma, with wind and hail the
dominant threats.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A deep upper level trough will remain to the west of the area
Thursday through Saturday, with continuous warm and moist advection
resulting in additional waves of showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will be ongoing Thursday morning, focusing across
southeast OK and west-central AR. Storms will then spread north
by the late morning or early afternoon. The severe threat will be
lower Thursday than today for several reasons. Perhaps most
importantly, the near surface boundary is expected to be south of
the forecast area, which would limit our access to the most
unstable air. Even so, a few embedded lines of strong to severe
storms may develop, with wind or hail being relatively more likely
threats. Shower and storm activity will then diminish Thursday
evening into Friday morning.
The next period of activity will arrive Friday morning as the low
level jet ramps up. By this time, the low level boundary will be
lifting to the north, perhaps as far north as a line from Tulsa
through Joplin. Areas near and south of this boundary will see a
dual severe and flood threat. In terms of severe potential, the
low level jet will result in significantly curved hodographs, with
significantly instability south of the boundary. The upper level
winds at and above 500 hPa will be near the 99th percentile for
this time of year, which will aid in storm ventilation. Based on
these factors, severe weather may develop. Precipitable water and
integrated vapor transport will remain near the climatological
max for this time of year, so widespread heavy rain is
anticipated. The heaviest rain is expected to focus across
southeast OK into west- central AR.
Portions of northeast OK may dry out Friday evening, but rain may
continue for southeast OK and northwest AR into Saturday when the
next upper level wave arrives. Once again, all areas will see
rain, but the heavier rainfall will focus across the southeast
portions of the forecast area. Rain finally winds down by Sunday
morning. Northeast OK will see a storm total of 2-4", with 4-6"
for the rest of the area. If localized banding of heavy rainfall
is persistent, locally up to 8" of rain could occur.
Unsurprisingly, the EPS EFI has values of 0.8 to 0.9 for Friday
and Saturday overlapping the axis of heaviest rainfall. This will
result in both river and flash flooding. Numerous rivers are
expected to see flooding, with localized moderate to major
flooding possible if any of these corridors of heaviest rain
intersect flood susceptible basins. Flash Flooding would be
expected for the same reasons. A Flood Watch was issued for the
highest confidence threat corridors, but may need to be expanded
later depending on forecast trends.
It's worth noting that the air will be anomalously cool on the
backside of the trough. Some guidance even mixes or turns rain to
snow for a few locations north of I-40 Sunday morning. While no
impacts are expected, it nonetheless represents a dramatic swing
in sensible conditions. A minor frost or freeze may also occur
north of I-40 for typically cold locations Sunday or Monday
morning. The forecast looks to dry out through at least the first
half of next week, with primarily northwest flow aloft keeping
temperatures slow to warm through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Skies will continue to clear for the remainder of the afternoon
with any ceilings thinning and lifting. Winds will be out of the
west, breezy at times with some gusts to 15-25 kts. Overnight
ceilings will redevelop and lower from southwest to northeast.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop for all areas between
9-15Z. By midday Thursday, ceilings could lower to 2 kft with some
visibility reductions as well under any thunderstorms. Winds will
be light and out of the northeast on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 51 62 50 61 / 20 80 50 100
FSM 55 65 57 77 / 50 90 70 100
MLC 52 64 56 71 / 70 90 70 100
BVO 45 62 46 58 / 20 80 30 100
FYV 48 64 52 73 / 30 80 60 100
BYV 50 62 51 69 / 30 80 50 100
MKO 51 63 53 66 / 30 80 60 100
MIO 49 59 50 60 / 20 80 40 100
F10 50 62 52 62 / 40 90 60 100
HHW 55 66 60 74 / 80 90 90 100
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250402T1912.txt
059
FXUS64 KTSA 021653
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe storm chances this morning into the afternoon for
portions of eastern OK and northwest AR.
- At least limited severe potentials continue Thursday and
Friday, mainly across SE OK and W-Central AR.
- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and
flood potential increasing, especially across SE OK and
W-Central AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move east
across the area. As of now, the line is mainly non-severe, but
the potential for severe storms will persist through noon as
sufficient moisture, shear, instability, and forcing are all
present. Recent mesoanalysis points to portions of southeast OK
and west-central AR as the most likely corridor given limited
storm activity up to this point. All severe hazards remain
possible. Behind the line, a few light and isolated showers
continue to develop. Showers and storms will gradually wind down
over the next few hours with clearing skies and a breezy westerly
wind developing. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to
the low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
overnight tonight into Thursday as a warm front lifts back north
of the Red River and another shortwave trough moves through the
southwesterly flow aloft. The highest severe chances will stay
confined to southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, south of
the boundary, where large hail will once again be a primary
threat. More isolated thunderstorms and showers are expected north
of the boundary into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
through Thursday afternoon.
The cutoff upper trough will begin slowly advancing eastward
through the latter part of the week and into the weekend, with
strong southwest flow aloft continuing over the region through at
least Saturday. The threat will transition to more of a heavy
rain and flooding threat as we move into the weekend, especially
across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected from Friday
through Sunday morning, focused along the stalled frontal boundary
meandering over the region. Continued moist advection along and
south of the boundary will bring unseasonably high PWAT values
into the region for several days. Efficient, heavy rainfall is
expected near the boundary, where upwards of 6-8 inches of rain
could fall locally by the time all is said and done on Sunday.
FLooding, both flash flooding and mainstem river flooding, will
likely become a concern across a portion of the area. A FLood
Watch will likely be needed in coming shifts as guidance hones in
on the area most likely to see the heaviest rainfall.
The trough axis finally shifts east of the region during the day
Sunday, with notably colder temperatures and drier air filtering
in behind the cold front for the first part of next week. Low
temperatures both Monday and Tuesday morning could approach
freezing values across the northern half of the forecast area. The
forecast looks to dry out through at least the first half of next
week, with primarily northwest flow aloft keeping temperatures
slow to warm through the week.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Skies will continue to clear for the remainder of the afternoon
with any ceilings thinning and lifting. Winds will be out of the
west, breezy at times with some gusts to 15-25 kts. Overnight
ceilings will redevelop and lower from southwest to northeast.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop for all areas between
9-15Z. By midday Thursday, ceilings could lower to 2 kft with some
visibility reductions as well under any thunderstorms. Winds will
be light and out of the northeast on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 77 52 64 52 / 60 30 80 30
FSM 82 58 68 60 / 80 60 100 70
MLC 82 54 66 57 / 60 70 90 70
BVO 76 47 64 47 / 40 30 70 20
FYV 79 51 64 54 / 90 40 90 50
BYV 77 52 61 53 / 80 20 90 50
MKO 80 52 63 53 / 70 50 90 50
MIO 77 50 61 50 / 70 30 80 30
F10 79 51 63 53 / 60 50 90 60
HHW 79 58 71 61 / 80 80 90 90
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250402T1653.txt
887
FXUS64 KTSA 021106
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
606 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Severe storm chances this morning into the afternoon.
- At least limited severe potentials continue Thursday and
Friday, mainly across SE OK and W-Central AR.
- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and
flood potential increasing, especially across SE OK and
W-Central AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Warm, moist air continues to advect northward into eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning thanks in part to gusty
southerly winds noted across the region. The main concern in the
near term is thunderstorm chances, including severe potential,
evolving over the next few hours and lasting throughout the
morning hours. A cold front currently draped across northwest
Oklahoma will advance eastward throughout the morning and interact
with the warm, moist airmass in place with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s over most of the area. At the same time, an upper level
jet streak associated with a shortwave trough is currently
ejecting out into the Plains as noted in water vapor imagery. High
res guidance continues to indicate that storms will break out
along the dryline/cool front over the next hour or two over
central Oklahoma as this source of lift intersects the
aforementioned boundaries. These storms would then advance
eastward into eastern Oklahoma and near the Tulsa metro area
around rush hour this morning. Uncertainties still exist to the
extent and strength of these storms as a substantial capping
inversion is still in place over the region, though slowly eroding
as low level moisture increases. Storms may remain elevated in
nature which would limit the tornado risk substantially. Still,
steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep layer shear would
support large to very large hail with any discrete storm. If any
storm can become surface based, then the tornado threat would
increase as well. Storms will likely become more linear as they
advance eastward, with the severe threat being maintained as the
line advances into a still highly unstable, highly sheared
environment.
Storms should clear the forecast area by early to mid afternoon as
the front advances well into Arkansas by this time frame. Clearing
skies and warming temperatures will follow into the afternoon
across eastern Oklahoma with breezy westerly winds common through
the afternoon.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
overnight tonight into Thursday as a warm front lifts back north
of the Red River and another shortwave trough moves through the
southwesterly flow aloft. The highest severe chances will stay
confined to southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, south of
the boundary, where large hail will once again be a primary
threat. More isolated thunderstorms and showers are expected north
of the boundary into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
through Thursday afternoon.
The cutoff upper trough will begin slowly advancing eastward
through the latter part of the week and into the weekend, with
strong southwest flow aloft continuing over the region through at
least Saturday. The threat will transition to more of a heavy
rain and flooding threat as we move into the weekend, especially
across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected from Friday
through Sunday morning, focused along the stalled frontal boundary
meandering over the region. Continued moist advection along and
south of the boundary will bring unseasonably high PWAT values
into the region for several days. Efficient, heavy rainfall is
expected near the boundary, where upwards of 6-8 inches of rain
could fall locally by the time all is said and done on Sunday.
FLooding, both flash flooding and mainstem river flooding, will
likely become a concern across a portion of the area. A FLood
Watch will likely be needed in coming shifts as guidance hones in
on the area most likely to see the heaviest rainfall.
The trough axis finally shifts east of the region during the day
Sunday, with notably colder temperatures and drier air filtering
in behind the cold front for the first part of next week. Low
temperatures both Monday and Tuesday morning could approach
freezing values across the northern half of the forecast area. The
forecast looks to dry out through at least the first half of next
week, with primarily northwest flow aloft keeping temperatures
slow to warm through the week.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Borderline VFR-MVFR ceilings will persist for all areas this
morning until a line of strong to severe storms moves through.
Storms are moving into KBVO now, and will impact Tulsa terminals
within the next hour, spreading to other terminals with the next
few hours. The most common impact will be strong gusty southerly
winds of 35-45 kts for most areas, shifting to southwest or west
behind the storms, as well as very heavy rain. Ceiling and
visibility reductions may also briefly occur with these storms.
Skies will clear later this morning and afternoon but ceilings
will redevelop from south to north Thursday morning with showers
and storms returning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 77 52 64 52 / 60 30 80 30
FSM 82 58 68 60 / 80 60 100 70
MLC 82 54 66 57 / 60 70 90 70
BVO 76 47 64 47 / 40 30 70 20
FYV 79 51 64 54 / 90 40 90 50
BYV 77 52 61 53 / 80 20 90 50
MKO 80 52 63 53 / 70 50 90 50
MIO 77 50 61 50 / 70 30 80 30
F10 79 51 63 53 / 60 50 90 60
HHW 79 58 71 61 / 80 80 90 90
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>076.
AR...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250402T1106.txt
