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043
FXUS64 KTSA 280500
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather
will continue through Thursday.
- Rain chances increase late Thursday night through Saturday.
- Potential for stronger storm system early next week but
uncertainty remains high.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Broad southwesterly flow aloft remains established across the
Southern Plains, ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. A subtle
shortwave trough overnight tonight may aid in a deeper plume of
moisture that may spread across portions of northeast Oklahoma
before or around sunrise Wednesday. A few light rain showers may
be squeezed out from this passing wave, but overall rain chances
and impacts remain very low at this time.
At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient from high pressure
over the Southeast CONUS and deepening lee cyclogenesis along the
High Plains will result in an increased bump in southerly winds
through the daytime on Wednesday. Expect sustained wind speeds
around 10-15 mph, with gusts around 25 mph. This slight increase
in winds will cause limited grassland fire spread rates through
the afternoon, especially north of I-40 where winds will be
breeziest. Afternoon high temperatures will climb to near 80F or
lower 80s underneath partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Above-average high temperatures and predominantly dry conditions
will remain the primary story through Thursday beneath broad
southwesterly flow aloft. Highs on Thursday will generally top
out in the lower to middle 80s, running about 15 degrees above
seasonal normals.
Rain chances will begin to increase from west to east late
Thursday night into Friday as an initial shortwave disturbance
lifts northeast out of west Texas. Multi-model guidance, along
with global ensemble means, and the NBM depict modest moisture
return ahead of this shortwave. Scattered showers are expected to
spread eastward, initially across east-central Oklahoma during the
daytime Friday, before spreading into far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas by Friday evening/night. The NBM continues to
carry the highest chances of PoPs (40-70%) Saturday morning and
into the early afternoon, before significantly decreasing by
Saturday evening. Severe weather potential remains unlikely, given
very marginal instability. In fact, thunder will be hard to come
by through at least the upcoming weekend. Rainfall amounts should
mainly stay below one inch through the weekend.
A brief lull in precipitation coverage is anticipated Sunday into
Sunday night as the lead wave departs into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and shortwave ridging moves across the area. By Sunday
night and into Monday morning, a potentially stronger, more
amplified synoptic trough/cut-off low pushes into the central
CONUS. While deterministic runs and other guidance continue to
show considerable run-to-run spread regarding the exact timing,
depth, and trajectory of this secondary upper-level disturbance,
confidence is increasing in renewed, more widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances ahead of an associated surface cold front
early next week (Monday into Tuesday timeframe). Given high
model/ensemble variance, have stayed close to NBM baseline PoPs
(40-70%) for Monday into Tuesday. A transition to cooler, more
seasonable temperatures is expected behind the front toward the
end of the forecast period.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light winds
overnight will become southerly on Wednesday, with the stronger
winds expected over eastern OK. Gusts to near 20 kts are included
in the NE OK TAFs. Winds will become light again by evening.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 56 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 57 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 56 82 57 84 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 52 80 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 57 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 58 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 58 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
F10 58 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 56 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261028T0500.txt
501
FXUS64 KTSA 280440
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather
will continue through Thursday.
- Rain chances increase late Thursday night through Saturday.
- Potential for stronger storm system early next week but
uncertainty remains high.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Broad southwesterly flow aloft remains established across the
Southern Plains, ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. A subtle
shortwave trough overnight tonight may aid in a deeper plume of
moisture that may spread across portions of northeast Oklahoma
before or around sunrise Wednesday. A few light rain showers may
be squeezed out from this passing wave, but overall rain chances
and impacts remain very low at this time.
At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient from high pressure
over the Southeast CONUS and deepening lee cyclogenesis along the
High Plains will result in an increased bump in southerly winds
through the daytime on Wednesday. Expect sustained wind speeds
around 10-15 mph, with gusts around 25 mph. This slight increase
in winds will cause limited grassland fire spread rates through
the afternoon, especially north of I-40 where winds will be
breeziest. Afternoon high temperatures will climb to near 80F or
lower 80s underneath partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Above-average high temperatures and predominantly dry conditions
will remain the primary story through Thursday beneath broad
southwesterly flow aloft. Highs on Thursday will generally top
out in the lower to middle 80s, running about 15 degrees above
seasonal normals.
Rain chances will begin to increase from west to east late
Thursday night into Friday as an initial shortwave disturbance
lifts northeast out of west Texas. Multi-model guidance, along
with global ensemble means, and the NBM depict modest moisture
return ahead of this shortwave. Scattered showers are expected to
spread eastward, initially across east-central Oklahoma during the
daytime Friday, before spreading into far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas by Friday evening/night. The NBM continues to
carry the highest chances of PoPs (40-70%) Saturday morning and
into the early afternoon, before significantly decreasing by
Saturday evening. Severe weather potential remains unlikely, given
very marginal instability. In fact, thunder will be hard to come
by through at least the upcoming weekend. Rainfall amounts should
mainly stay below one inch through the weekend.
A brief lull in precipitation coverage is anticipated Sunday into
Sunday night as the lead wave departs into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and shortwave ridging moves across the area. By Sunday
night and into Monday morning, a potentially stronger, more
amplified synoptic trough/cut-off low pushes into the central
CONUS. While deterministic runs and other guidance continue to
show considerable run-to-run spread regarding the exact timing,
depth, and trajectory of this secondary upper-level disturbance,
confidence is increasing in renewed, more widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances ahead of an associated surface cold front
early next week (Monday into Tuesday timeframe). Given high
model/ensemble variance, have stayed close to NBM baseline PoPs
(40-70%) for Monday into Tuesday. A transition to cooler, more
seasonable temperatures is expected behind the front toward the
end of the forecast period.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period as scattered mid and
high clouds continue over the area through the night. Southerly
winds will pick up some tomorrow again, with gusts around 20 knots
possible across NE OK sites.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 56 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 57 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 56 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 52 80 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 57 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 58 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 58 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
F10 58 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 56 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261028T0440.txt
182
FXUS64 KTSA 272317
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather
will continue through Thursday.
- Rain chances increase late Friday into Saturday.
- Potential for stronger storm system early next week but
uncertainty remains high.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Clearing skies in the wake of the passing mid level wave will
continue into the overnight hours. Plume of deeper moisture to the
west of the local region will spread NNE overnight with a more
subtle wave possibly aiding late night elevated convection in or
near NE OK. Overall chances remain very low but a few showers by
sunrise Wed would not be surprising. Otherwise temperatures well
above normal will continue with slightly stronger and gusty winds
across NE OK by Wed afternoon. These conditions will locally raise
grassland fire spread rates through Wed. afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Near persistent conditions extend into Thursday with high temps 10
to 15 degrees above normal. Attention will become the tropical
remnants and associated mid level wave lifting into west TX on
Friday. Widespread rains will initially remain west of the local
area through much of Friday before expanding east across the
forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Bulk of guidance keeps
rainfall amounts rather light during this time frame but any
amounts will be welcome in the ongoing drought conditions.
Instability is likely to remain low with the wave passage so any
coverage of thunderstorms will remain low with minimal impact to
outdoor events on Saturday. Precip timing across the forecast
area remains similar with the latest guidance and favors rains
ending from west to east mid Saturday afternoon through late
Saturday evening.
A brief dry period is forecast for Sunday before influence from a
potentially stronger storm system returns precip chances to the
region Monday. The early week storm system has high uncertainty at
this time range but early trends in guidance have been for a
widespread influence across the central CONUS. The forecast will
reflect this by maintaining fairly high precip chances for early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period as scattered mid and
high clouds continue over the area through the night. Southerly
winds will pick up some tomorrow again, with gusts around 20 knots
possible across NE OK sites.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 82 62 84 / 10 10 0 10
FSM 56 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 58 82 61 84 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 57 82 57 84 / 10 10 0 10
FYV 52 80 54 81 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 56 80 57 82 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 57 82 59 84 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 57 80 60 83 / 10 10 0 0
F10 58 82 62 85 / 0 10 0 10
HHW 56 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261027T2317.txt
768
FXUS64 KTSA 271100
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
600 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 555 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather
will continue through the week.
- A slight chance of showers arrives Tuesday with higher rain
chances this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
A mid level shortwave trough will lift northeast through central
and northern Oklahoma overnight tonight into Tuesday, while the
persistent southeastern upper ridge flattens somewhat. Increasing
mid level moisture and forcing associated with the wave will lead
to increasing shower chances, mainly along and west of Highway 75
through Tuesday morning. Continued dry lower levels will keep any
rain totals very light as much of the rain will not reach the
ground. Mid level echos could progress eastward into far eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon, but no more
than a few sprinkles is expected in those locations. More
expansive cloud cover will likely keep temperatures down a couple
degrees, but above normal temps will still continue with highs
generally in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Things clear out through the middle part of the week as generally
zonal flow aloft develops over much of the southern CONUS. A
tightening pressure gradient on Wednesday will provide an uptick
in wind speeds, which along with the dry conditions and warm
temperatures in the 80s will raise fire weather concerns Wednesday
afternoon. Conditions will remain well below critical levels
however.
Warm and dry conditions continue into Thursday, before a more
unsettled weather pattern develops by late week into the weekend.
There continues to be noticeable uncertainty in the guidance as
to the evolution of the impactful systems during this time frame.
In general though, we can expect a break down of the upper level
ridge with stronger western troughing and southwest flow aloft
developing over the Southern Plains. Various shortwaves look to
move through the flow through the weekend into early next week,
which along with increasing lower level moisture will bring better
rain chances along with some thunderstorm potential. The first
system is on track for late Friday into Saturday at the present
time with a possible stronger wave and frontal boundary pushing
through Sunday night into Monday. A robust upper low could linger
in the area through the first part of next week bringing lingering
rain chances along with at least a modest airmass change back to
near normal conditions.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Mostly cloudy
skies this morning with some sprinkles or light showers will give
way to clearing skies this afternoon in the wake of a passing wave
aloft. Activity is not likely to impact visibility and cigs will
stay well into VFR range so mention was not included in the TAFs.
Southerly winds will prevail, with an occasional gust abv 15kts
possible at the NE OK sites, though prevailing wind will be kept
blo 12kts.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 78 60 82 62 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 81 56 85 58 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 79 57 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 76 55 82 57 / 10 10 10 0
FYV 76 52 80 55 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 75 57 80 59 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 78 58 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 74 57 80 60 / 10 0 0 0
F10 79 58 82 61 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 81 56 83 60 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261027T1100.txt
