Home
125
FXUS64 KTSA 301124
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- A Flood Advisory is in effect for the Illinois River near
Tahlequah until this afternoon.
- Increasing rain chances mainly south of I-40 Today into Friday.
Thunderstorms are not expected.
- Low impact weather this weekend before additional thunderstorm
chances return toward the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A large upper level low will maintain its position near the Great
Lakes today with a strong, initially zonal jet over the S Plains.
Meanwhile, a mid-upper level low will move onshore in Southern
California/Northwest Mexico, transitioning into an open wave as it
shifts east across the Desert Southwest. This will tend to
increase southwest flow over the area with time. Increasing ascent
will support expanding rain chances across Southeast Oklahoma
today, with some isolated showers potentially extending north of
Interstate 40. Lightning potential is likely to remain south of
the forecast area and rainfall should be fairly light.
Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 60s today given
extensive cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
As the aforementioned wave passes through Texas on Friday,
precipitation chances will continue across southern portions of
the area. Again, the most unstable air will remain well south of
us with no lightning expected. High pressure fills in behind this
system Friday night, with clouds gradually clearing from north to
south. As winds calm overnight, strong radiational cooling will
support low temperatures in the lower 40s or upper 30s across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday night.
High pressure provides pleasant conditions on Saturday, with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, plenty of sunshine, and light
winds. After another chilly night Saturday night, southerly low
level flow returns to E OK and NW AR on Sunday. This will help to
warm things back up to near/above average into early next week.
Then, as moisture gradually recovers, precipitation chances begin
to tick back up late Monday through mid week as additional storm
systems affect the region. Finer details vary at this range, but
the synoptic pattern would suggest increasing severe weather
potential during this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the period. A steady stream of
mid and high cloud cover will spread over the region throughout
the period while winds generally remain light out of the east
northeast to north. Some sprinkles or light showers could be seen
for KMLC, but no aviation impacts are expected with any shower
activity.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 68 49 68 44 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 70 50 69 45 / 10 20 10 10
MLC 69 50 67 42 / 20 20 20 10
BVO 68 44 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 68 45 66 38 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 66 46 64 38 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 68 48 66 39 / 10 10 10 0
MIO 66 45 65 39 / 10 10 0 0
F10 68 48 66 39 / 20 20 10 0
HHW 67 52 63 46 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260430T1124.txt
379
FXUS64 KTSA 300529
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- A Flood Advisory is in effect for the Illinois River near
Tahlequah until this afternoon.
- Increasing rain chances mainly south of I-40 Today into Friday.
Thunderstorms are not expected.
- Low impact weather this weekend before additional thunderstorm
chances return toward the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A large upper level low will maintain its position near the Great
Lakes today with a strong, initially zonal jet over the S Plains.
Meanwhile, a mid-upper level low will move onshore in Southern
California/Northwest Mexico, transitioning into an open wave as it
shifts east across the Desert Southwest. This will tend to
increase southwest flow over the area with time. Increasing ascent
will support expanding rain chances across Southeast Oklahoma
today, with some isolated showers potentially extending north of
Interstate 40. Lightning potential is likely to remain south of
the forecast area and rainfall should be fairly light.
Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 60s today given
extensive cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
As the aforementioned wave passes through Texas on Friday,
precipitation chances will continue across southern portions of
the area. Again, the most unstable air will remain well south of
us with no lightning expected. High pressure fills in behind this
system Friday night, with clouds gradually clearing from north to
south. As winds calm overnight, strong radiational cooling will
support low temperatures in the lower 40s or upper 30s across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday night.
High pressure provides pleasant conditions on Saturday, with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, plenty of sunshine, and light
winds. After another chilly night Saturday night, southerly low
level flow returns to E OK and NW AR on Sunday. This will help to
warm things back up to near/above average into early next week.
Then, as moisture gradually recovers, precipitation chances begin
to tick back up late Monday through mid week as additional storm
systems affect the region. Finer details vary at this range, but
the synoptic pattern would suggest increasing severe weather
potential during this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A steady stream of
mid and high cloud will spread over the area, while winds
generally remain light form the east northeast.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 68 49 68 44 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 70 50 69 45 / 10 20 10 10
MLC 69 50 67 42 / 20 20 20 10
BVO 68 44 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 68 45 66 38 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 66 46 64 38 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 68 48 66 39 / 10 10 10 0
MIO 66 45 65 39 / 10 10 0 0
F10 68 48 66 39 / 20 20 10 0
HHW 67 52 63 46 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260430T0529.txt
319
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- A Flood Advisory is in effect for the Illinois River near
Tahlequah until this afternoon.
- Increasing rain chances mainly south of I-40 Today into Friday.
Thunderstorms are not expected.
- Low impact weather this weekend before additional thunderstorm
chances return toward the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A large upper level low will maintain its position near the Great
Lakes today with a strong, initially zonal jet over the S Plains.
Meanwhile, a mid-upper level low will move onshore in Southern
California/Northwest Mexico, transitioning into an open wave as it
shifts east across the Desert Southwest. This will tend to
increase southwest flow over the area with time. Increasing ascent
will support expanding rain chances across Southeast Oklahoma
today, with some isolated showers potentially extending north of
Interstate 40. Lightning potential is likely to remain south of
the forecast area and rainfall should be fairly light.
Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 60s today given
extensive cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
As the aforementioned wave passes through Texas on Friday,
precipitation chances will continue across southern portions of
the area. Again, the most unstable air will remain well south of
us with no lightning expected. High pressure fills in behind this
system Friday night, with clouds gradually clearing from north to
south. As winds calm overnight, strong radiational cooling will
support low temperatures in the lower 40s or upper 30s across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday night.
High pressure provides pleasant conditions on Saturday, with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, plenty of sunshine, and light
winds. After another chilly night Saturday night, southerly low
level flow returns to E OK and NW AR on Sunday. This will help to
warm things back up to near/above average into early next week.
Then, as moisture gradually recovers, precipitation chances begin
to tick back up late Monday through mid week as additional storm
systems affect the region. Finer details vary at this range, but
the synoptic pattern would suggest increasing severe weather
potential during this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Ongoing VFR conditions will persist into the evening while gusty
winds diminish after sunset. VFR ceilings likely persist at times
through Thursday with light winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 68 49 68 / 0 10 10 0
FSM 50 70 50 69 / 0 10 20 10
MLC 50 69 50 67 / 0 20 20 20
BVO 43 68 44 68 / 0 10 10 0
FYV 45 68 45 66 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 45 66 46 64 / 0 10 10 0
MKO 45 68 48 66 / 0 10 10 10
MIO 43 66 45 65 / 0 10 10 0
F10 46 68 48 66 / 0 20 20 10
HHW 55 67 52 63 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260430T0448.txt
660
FXUS64 KTSA 292338
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- Cooler and lower impact weather to close out this week.
- A storm system is forecast to track east across Texas during
the latter part of the week, increasing rain chances mainly
south of I-40 Thursday into Friday.
- Thunderstorm chances will return toward the middle of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The much anticipated cold front has finally cleared all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas, bringing cooler and decidedly,
lower impact weather to the region. Thunderstorms have developed
just south of the Red River late this morning, in response to a
weak disturbance moving through the area. A low chance of this
potential extending northward into far southeast Oklahoma exists
through the afternoon and into early evening, but any strong to
severe storms are likely to remain south of the area. Cloud cover
will hang on across southeast Oklahoma into the overnight, while
some clearing is expected across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. This will lead to a decent gradient in low temperatures
with lower 40s to the north and mid 50s to the south.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A period of dry weather areawide will extend past daybreak
Thursday, lasting into at least midday, before shower chances
increase again across southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon in
response to the arrival of an upper level jet max in Central
Texas. Lightning potential will likely stay south of the area. The
POPs during this time frame have been adjusted upward some using
the short-term blended guidance from the lower NBM guidance. A
more substantial storm system remains on track to move through
Texas late Thursday and into Friday, with another round of showers
for mainly areas along and south of I-40. Once again, the
lightning potential will be low north of the Red River with this
round. Given the rainfall during the day Friday, temperatures will
remain quite chilly through the day across southeast Oklahoma,
only in the lower 60s at best.
Drier north-northwesterly flow develops across the region by the
weekend, pushing any impetus for rain south and east of the area
and leading to generally mostly clear skies. South to southwest
winds look to make a return Sunday, which will spur a warmup with
near to above normal temperatures that extends into next week.
Another storm system looks to organize in the southwestern United
States during early next week and move eastward through the area for
the middle part of the week. This will lead to an increase in the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Although it is way too
early to talk specifics, the overall pattern would support some
severe weather potential during this time frame. After all, it's
gonna be May.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Ongoing VFR conditions will persist into the evening while gusty
winds diminish after sunset. VFR ceilings likely persist at times
through Thursday with light winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 68 48 67 / 0 10 10 10
FSM 50 70 51 69 / 0 10 10 20
MLC 50 70 50 66 / 10 20 20 30
BVO 43 68 43 68 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 45 68 43 66 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 45 66 46 64 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 45 68 48 66 / 0 10 10 10
MIO 43 66 45 65 / 0 10 10 10
F10 46 67 48 65 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 55 68 52 61 / 20 50 50 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260429T2338.txt
736
FXUS64 KTSA 291654
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- Cooler and lower impact weather to close out this week.
- A storm system is forecast to track east across Texas during
the latter part of the week, increasing rain chances mainly
south of I-40 Thursday into Friday.
- Thunderstorm chances will return toward the middle of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The much anticipated cold front has finally cleared all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas, bringing cooler and decidedly,
lower impact weather to the region. Thunderstorms have developed
just south of the Red River late this morning, in response to a
weak disturbance moving through the area. A low chance of this
potential extending northward into far southeast Oklahoma exists
through the afternoon and into early evening, but any strong to
severe storms are likely to remain south of the area. Cloud cover
will hang on across southeast Oklahoma into the overnight, while
some clearing is expected across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. This will lead to a decent gradient in low temperatures
with lower 40s to the north and mid 50s to the south.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A period of dry weather areawide will extend past daybreak
Thursday, lasting into at least midday, before shower chances
increase again across southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon in
response to the arrival of an upper level jet max in Central
Texas. Lightning potential will likely stay south of the area. The
POPs during this time frame have been adjusted upward some using
the short-term blended guidance from the lower NBM guidance. A
more substantial storm system remains on track to move through
Texas late Thursday and into Friday, with another round of showers
for mainly areas along and south of I-40. Once again, the
lightning potential will be low north of the Red River with this
round. Given the rainfall during the day Friday, temperatures will
remain quite chilly through the day across southeast Oklahoma,
only in the lower 60s at best.
Drier north-northwesterly flow develops across the region by the
weekend, pushing any impetus for rain south and east of the area
and leading to generally mostly clear skies. South to southwest
winds look to make a return Sunday, which will spur a warmup with
near to above normal temperatures that extends into next week.
Another storm system looks to organize in the southwestern United
States during early next week and move eastward through the area for
the middle part of the week. This will lead to an increase in the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Although it is way too
early to talk specifics, the overall pattern would support some
severe weather potential during this time frame. After all, it's
gonna be May.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
VFR expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours, with BKN-OVC high level clouds through the period. Winds
stay light to moderate, with occasional gusts around 20 knots, out
of north or northeast into this evening and overnight before
veering more easterly by mid to late morning Thursday.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 68 48 67 / 0 10 10 10
FSM 50 70 51 69 / 0 10 10 20
MLC 50 70 50 66 / 10 20 20 30
BVO 43 68 43 68 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 45 68 43 66 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 45 66 46 64 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 45 68 48 66 / 0 10 10 10
MIO 43 66 45 65 / 0 10 10 10
F10 46 67 48 65 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 55 68 52 61 / 20 50 50 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260429T1654.txt
048
FXUS64 KTSA 291621
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
- Cooler and lower impact weather to close out this week.
- A storm system is forecast to track east across Texas during
the latter part of the week, increasing rain chances mainly
south of I-40 Thursday into Friday.
- Thunderstorm chances will return toward the middle of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The much anticipated cold front has finally cleared all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas, bringing cooler and decidedly,
lower impact weather to the region. Thunderstorms have developed
just south of the Red River late this morning, in response to a
weak disturbance moving through the area. A low chance of this
potential extending northward into far southeast Oklahoma exists
through the afternoon and into early evening, but any strong to
severe storms are likely to remain south of the area. Cloud cover
will hang on across southeast Oklahoma into the overnight, while
some clearing is expected across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. This will lead to a decent gradient in low temperatures
with lower 40s to the north and mid 50s to the south.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A period of dry weather areawide will extend past daybreak
Thursday, lasting into at least midday, before shower chances
increase again across southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon in
response to the arrival of an upper level jet max in Central
Texas. Lightning potential will likely stay south of the area. The
POPs during this time frame have been adjusted upward some using
the short-term blended guidance from the lower NBM guidance. A
more substantial storm system remains on track to move through
Texas late Thursday and into Friday, with another round of showers
for mainly areas along and south of I-40. Once again, the
lightning potential will be low north of the Red River with this
round. Given the rainfall during the day Friday, temperatures will
remain quite chilly through the day across southeast Oklahoma,
only in the lower 60s at best.
Drier north-northwesterly flow develops across the region by the
weekend, pushing any impetus for rain south and east of the area
and leading to generally mostly clear skies. South to southwest
winds look to make a return Sunday, which will spur a warmup with
near to above normal temperatures that extends into next week.
Another storm system looks to organize in the southwestern United
States during early next week and move eastward through the area for
the middle part of the week. This will lead to an increase in the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Although it is way too
early to talk specifics, the overall pattern would support some
severe weather potential during this time frame. After all, it's
gonna be May.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
MVFR cigs over NW AR sites should gradually shift eastward over
the next hour or two with VFR conditions prevailing through the
rest of the period. MVFR cigs for KMLC will likely last through
the morning, as another low cloud deck lifts north out of Texas,
before lifting to VFR conditions by late morning or early
afternoon. Winds will stay out of the north to north northeast
with some gusts of 15 to 20 knots likely throughout the day.
Winds will die off this evening, while a steady stream of high
clouds passes over the region.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 68 47 68 48 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 73 50 70 51 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 70 50 70 50 / 10 10 20 20
BVO 68 43 68 43 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 69 45 68 43 / 0 0 10 10
BYV 67 45 66 46 / 0 0 10 10
MKO 70 45 68 48 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 66 43 66 45 / 0 0 10 10
F10 69 46 67 48 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 70 55 68 52 / 30 20 50 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260429T1621.txt
