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237 
FXUS64 KTSA 122340
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 633 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances continue through tonight and early Sunday.

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at
   least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 48
   hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more 
   rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue 
   during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Elevated convection continues across parts of the area early this
afternoon. Expect a gradual weakening trend with this activity
through the afternoon, but some potential for damaging downburst
winds will continue until the storms dissipate.

Attention will then turn towards a potential storm complex that
may develop across northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas late
this afternoon and early this evening. If this complex forms, it
will likely track east into parts of northeast Oklahoma and
possibly far northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight. A
limited potential for severe storms with damaging winds will exist
with this complex overnight. Overnight low temperatures will range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning across far
northwest Arkansas before ending. A strong upper ridge will then
build over the area and persist through at least the middle of
next week with the center of the ridge just to our east. Dangerous
heat will return Sunday through at least the middle of next week,
with daily heat headlines expected. A heat advisory has been
issued for Sunday afternoon for much of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas.

Shower and thunderstorm chances may increase by late week as a
cold front approaches from the north. The timing of this front
remains somewhat uncertain, but it does appear that a more
significant cooldown may take place by sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm activity through the
period. The latest CAM guidance suggests that storms over far NW
OK could cluster and come east across northern OK overnight and 
perhaps into far NW AR toward early Sunday morning. Confidence is
not super high, but both CAM models show some storm activity
spreading in from the west so have maintained the prob30s from
previous forecast and just adjusted the time window back a few
hours to be more in line with latest guidance. Did insert some 
wind gust potential per HRRR.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74 101  78 100 /  20   0  10   0 
FSM   75 103  76 102 /  10  10  10   0 
MLC   75 102  77 101 /  10   0   0   0 
BVO   70 100  71 100 /  40  10  10   0 
FYV   69  98  70  98 /  20  20  10   0 
BYV   71  96  72  96 /  20  30  10  10 
MKO   72 102  74 101 /  10   0  10   0 
MIO   70  97  73  99 /  40  10  10   0 
F10   72 102  75 100 /  10   0   0   0 
HHW   74 101  75 101 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070-071-073>075-176-272.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
     276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260912T2340.txt

 694 FXUS64 KTSA 121809 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 109 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 - Thunderstorm chances continue through tonight and early Sunday. - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times. - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 48 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Elevated convection continues across parts of the area early this afternoon. Expect a gradual weakening trend with this activity through the afternoon, but some potential for damaging downburst winds will continue until the storms dissipate. Attention will then turn towards a potential storm complex that may develop across northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas late this afternoon and early this evening. If this complex forms, it will likely track east into parts of northeast Oklahoma and possibly far northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight. A limited potential for severe storms with damaging winds will exist with this complex overnight. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning across far northwest Arkansas before ending. A strong upper ridge will then build over the area and persist through at least the middle of next week with the center of the ridge just to our east. Dangerous heat will return Sunday through at least the middle of next week, with daily heat headlines expected. A heat advisory has been issued for Sunday afternoon for much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Shower and thunderstorm chances may increase by late week as a cold front approaches from the north. The timing of this front remains somewhat uncertain, but it does appear that a more significant cooldown may take place by sometime next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Morning convection has nearly passed NE OK terminals leaving some scattered low clouds and occasional broken mid clouds from KTUL to KFSM this afternoon. Outflow is slowing from Tulsa to near Fayetteville and is expected to wash out with winds returning to the light southeast or remaining variable through the afternoon. VFR conditions expected to persist with a low risk of additional storms impacting northwest AR sites later this afternoon though we will need to watch western end of boundary near KTUL/KRVS for redevelopment as well. Additional, more organized storms are expected to develop across northern OK/southern KS toward 00Z Sun and spread east mainly impacting northern OK and northwest AR terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 101 78 100 / 20 0 10 0 FSM 75 103 76 102 / 10 10 10 0 MLC 75 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 70 100 71 100 / 40 10 10 0 FYV 69 98 70 98 / 20 20 10 0 BYV 71 96 72 96 / 20 30 10 10 MKO 72 102 74 101 / 10 0 10 0 MIO 70 97 73 99 / 40 10 10 0 F10 72 102 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 74 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066- 070-071-073>075-176-272. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053- 055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272- 276-354-376. AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220- 229. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...24 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260912T1809.txt
 296 FXUS64 KTSA 121754 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1254 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday with medium confidence in exact placement and coverage. - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times. - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 36 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 The rest of the ongoing overnight period should be on the quieter side, with the afternoon and evening storms having diminished with sunset. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 70s in most areas, with areas near the Kansas border and in far northwest Arkansas dipping into the 60s. The forecast for Saturday remains somewhat in question, with concerns revolving around how much thunderstorm coverage occurs tomorrow and how far south. Most of the CAMs and some of the synoptic models are largely in agreement that a thunderstorm complex will develop to the north and push southward into northeast Oklahoma mid to late morning tomorrow as a mid level disturbance drops southward through the area. If this occurs as expected, this would likely push the afternoon thunderstorm potential into areas near and south of I-40. This is the idea that will be featured in this evening/s forecast. With these expectations, areas along and south of I-40 should be hot once again, with potential for peak heat index values above 105. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this area Saturday, given the higher confidence there. If the storm coverage is not as great, the advisory may need to be expanded northward by later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Somewhat higher uncertainty exists for the Saturday evening into Sunday morning period, with another batch of thunderstorms advertised across parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas during this time frame in association with a weak front in the vicinity of the Kansas border. Showers and storms may linger into the daylight hours Sunday, primarily across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with hot and dry weather prevailing thereafter through at least the early part of next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed during this time frame. Breezy conditions on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will fuel increased fire weather concerns, with the recent rains not being nearly enough to squelch the impact of the ongoing drought. Toward the end of next week, a cold front continues to be advertised in the longer range models, but the timing and strength of the front remains in question. If/when it does come through, an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential will accompany it. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Morning convection has nearly passed NE OK terminals leaving some scattered low clouds and occasional broken mid clouds from KTUL to KFSM this afternoon. Outflow is slowing from Tulsa to near Fayetteville and is expected to wash out with winds returning to the light southeast or remaining variable through the afternoon. VFR conditions expected to persist with a low risk of additional storms impacting northwest AR sites later this afternoon though we will need to watch western end of boundary near KTUL/KRVS for redevelopment as well. Additional, more organized storms are expected to develop across northern OK/southern KS toward 00Z Sun and spread east mainly impacting northern OK and northwest AR terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 101 78 100 / 20 0 10 0 FSM 75 103 76 102 / 10 10 10 0 MLC 75 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 70 100 71 100 / 40 10 10 0 FYV 69 98 70 98 / 20 20 10 0 BYV 71 96 72 96 / 20 30 10 10 MKO 72 102 74 101 / 10 0 10 0 MIO 70 97 73 99 / 40 10 10 0 F10 72 102 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 74 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066- 070-071-073>075-176-272. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053- 055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272- 276-354-376. AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220- 229. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...24 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260912T1754.txt
 259 FXUS64 KTSA 121130 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday with medium confidence in exact placement and coverage. - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times. - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 36 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 The rest of the ongoing overnight period should be on the quieter side, with the afternoon and evening storms having diminished with sunset. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 70s in most areas, with areas near the Kansas border and in far northwest Arkansas dipping into the 60s. The forecast for Saturday remains somewhat in question, with concerns revolving around how much thunderstorm coverage occurs tomorrow and how far south. Most of the CAMs and some of the synoptic models are largely in agreement that a thunderstorm complex will develop to the north and push southward into northeast Oklahoma mid to late morning tomorrow as a mid level disturbance drops southward through the area. If this occurs as expected, this would likely push the afternoon thunderstorm potential into areas near and south of I-40. This is the idea that will be featured in this evening/s forecast. With these expectations, areas along and south of I-40 should be hot once again, with potential for peak heat index values above 105. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this area Saturday, given the higher confidence there. If the storm coverage is not as great, the advisory may need to be expanded northward by later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Somewhat higher uncertainty exists for the Saturday evening into Sunday morning period, with another batch of thunderstorms advertised across parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas during this time frame in association with a weak front in the vicinity of the Kansas border. Showers and storms may linger into the daylight hours Sunday, primarily across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with hot and dry weather prevailing thereafter through at least the early part of next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed during this time frame. Breezy conditions on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will fuel increased fire weather concerns, with the recent rains not being nearly enough to squelch the impact of the ongoing drought. Toward the end of next week, a cold front continues to be advertised in the longer range models, but the timing and strength of the front remains in question. If/when it does come through, an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential will accompany it. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside of any possible convective influences. An outflow boundary tracking south out of Kansas will likely cause a brief wind shift with gusty northerly winds across NE OK this morning. KBVO stands the best chances at seeing impactful wind conditions by mid to late morning and have introduced a TEMPO group to show the wind change. The boundary should begin to weaken and wash out as mixing intensifies through the morning and is less likely to impact KTUL and KRVS as much, though a brief change in direction is still possible. Storm chances have decreased this morning, but additional storm chances are possible late this afternoon and evening through the end of the TAF period as a frontal boundary stalls near the region. NE OK and NW AR sites have the best chance at seeing convective impacts through the latter half of the TAF period. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 74 98 78 / 20 40 10 0 FSM 99 74 101 75 / 20 20 10 0 MLC 100 75 101 76 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 94 67 98 70 / 20 40 20 0 FYV 94 68 97 71 / 20 40 20 0 BYV 93 70 95 72 / 20 40 20 0 MKO 97 71 98 73 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 93 70 95 72 / 20 40 20 0 F10 98 72 100 74 / 20 10 0 0 HHW 99 74 98 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...04 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260912T1130.txt
 334 FXUS64 KTSA 120528 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1228 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday with medium confidence in exact placement and coverage. - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times. - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 36 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 The rest of the ongoing overnight period should be on the quieter side, with the afternoon and evening storms having diminished with sunset. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 70s in most areas, with areas near the Kansas border and in far northwest Arkansas dipping into the 60s. The forecast for Saturday remains somewhat in question, with concerns revolving around how much thunderstorm coverage occurs tomorrow and how far south. Most of the CAMs and some of the synoptic models are largely in agreement that a thunderstorm complex will develop to the north and push southward into northeast Oklahoma mid to late morning tomorrow as a mid level disturbance drops southward through the area. If this occurs as expected, this would likely push the afternoon thunderstorm potential into areas near and south of I-40. This is the idea that will be featured in this evening/s forecast. With these expectations, areas along and south of I-40 should be hot once again, with potential for peak heat index values above 105. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this area Saturday, given the higher confidence there. If the storm coverage is not as great, the advisory may need to be expanded northward by later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Somewhat higher uncertainty exists for the Saturday evening into Sunday morning period, with another batch of thunderstorms advertised across parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas during this time frame in association with a weak front in the vicinity of the Kansas border. Showers and storms may linger into the daylight hours Sunday, primarily across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with hot and dry weather prevailing thereafter through at least the early part of next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed during this time frame. Breezy conditions on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will fuel increased fire weather concerns, with the recent rains not being nearly enough to squelch the impact of the ongoing drought. Toward the end of next week, a cold front continues to be advertised in the longer range models, but the timing and strength of the front remains in question. If/when it does come through, an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential will accompany it. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period with a few possible exceptions. Some patchy fog will be possible tonight, mostly across NW AR, with KFYV having the best chance at seeing any impacts to visibility. By late morning, a complex of storms could approach NE OK sites, while in a weakening state. PROB30 groups have been introduced for this scenario. Any storms should dissipate by early afternoon. Additional storm development is possible late in the TAF period, but uncertainty remains too high at this point to introduce mention with the exception of KBVO. Winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast outside of any convective influences. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 74 98 78 / 30 40 10 0 FSM 99 74 101 75 / 30 20 10 0 MLC 100 75 101 76 / 30 10 0 0 BVO 94 67 98 70 / 40 40 20 0 FYV 94 68 97 71 / 30 40 20 0 BYV 93 70 95 72 / 40 40 20 0 MKO 97 71 98 73 / 30 10 10 0 MIO 93 70 95 72 / 40 40 20 0 F10 98 72 100 74 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 99 74 98 74 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...04 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260912T0528.txt
 744 FXUS64 KTSA 120417 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 - Thunderstorm chances return Saturday with medium confidence in exact placement and coverage. - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times. - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 36 hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 The rest of the ongoing overnight period should be on the quieter side, with the afternoon and evening storms having diminished with sunset. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 70s in most areas, with areas near the Kansas border and in far northwest Arkansas dipping into the 60s. The forecast for Saturday remains somewhat in question, with concerns revolving around how much thunderstorm coverage occurs tomorrow and how far south. Most of the CAMs and some of the synoptic models are largely in agreement that a thunderstorm complex will develop to the north and push southward into northeast Oklahoma mid to late morning tomorrow as a mid level disturbance drops southward through the area. If this occurs as expected, this would likely push the afternoon thunderstorm potential into areas near and south of I-40. This is the idea that will be featured in this evening/s forecast. With these expectations, areas along and south of I-40 should be hot once again, with potential for peak heat index values above 105. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this area Saturday, given the higher confidence there. If the storm coverage is not as great, the advisory may need to be expanded northward by later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Somewhat higher uncertainty exists for the Saturday evening into Sunday morning period, with another batch of thunderstorms advertised across parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas during this time frame in association with a weak front in the vicinity of the Kansas border. Showers and storms may linger into the daylight hours Sunday, primarily across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with hot and dry weather prevailing thereafter through at least the early part of next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed during this time frame. Breezy conditions on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will fuel increased fire weather concerns, with the recent rains not being nearly enough to squelch the impact of the ongoing drought. Toward the end of next week, a cold front continues to be advertised in the longer range models, but the timing and strength of the front remains in question. If/when it does come through, an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential will accompany it. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. There remains significant uncertainty regarding thunderstorm potential over the next 24 hours, with slightly higher potential favored in northern areas. Right now though the uncertainty precludes any mention in the forecast. Some light fog possible mainly at KFYV late tonight/early Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 96 74 98 / 0 30 40 10 FSM 73 99 74 101 / 0 30 20 10 MLC 75 100 75 101 / 10 30 10 0 BVO 67 94 67 98 / 0 40 40 20 FYV 68 94 68 97 / 0 30 40 20 BYV 69 93 70 95 / 0 40 40 20 MKO 71 97 71 98 / 0 30 10 10 MIO 68 93 70 95 / 0 40 40 20 F10 72 98 72 100 / 0 30 10 0 HHW 74 99 74 98 / 10 20 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053-065- 066-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...14 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260912T0417.txt


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