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854
FXUS64 KTSA 230522
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Small shower/storm chances for northeast Oklahoma with a
frontal boundary moving into the region Saturday
afternoon/evening.
- Medium rain chances (30-60%) enter the forecast Sunday night through
much of next week with an increasing heavy rainfall threat.
- Well below normal temperatures forecast for the last week of
August.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025
A broad area of low pressure just north of the Great Lakes region
was helping to push a frontal boundary, positioned from the Central
Plains to the Upper Midwest, south/southeast early Saturday morning.
At the same time, the ridge of high pressure was beginning to become
oriented more northwest to southeast, centered over the Desert
Southwest, in response to the mid/upper level trof axis extending
into the Plains. Scattered showers and a few storms remained near
the frontal boundary and could approach the Oklahoma Kansas border
around sunrise Saturday. For now will keep PoPs below mentionable
criteria, though will monitor conditions.
This boundary is expected to continue its southward push through the
day Saturday and reach into northeast Oklahoma early/mid afternoon.
Ahead of the front, continued warm conditions with highs in the
low/upper 90s are expected across the CWA. As the front reaches the
CWA and interacts with max heating and instability across the
region, small shower and storm chances develop Saturday afternoon
over portions of northeast Oklahoma. The greater potential is
expected near the Oklahoma Kansas border during the afternoon hours
and should weaken Saturday evening. A gusty wind and locally heavy
rain threat will exist with any thunderstorm development.
Saturday evening into Saturday night the boundary is forecast to
push through and exit southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Behind the boundary, the southern portion of surface high pressure
is progged to move into the region with low temps in the 60s to
lower 70s across the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025
The parent mid/upper level trof axis associated with the low pressure
system just north of the Great Lakes region is forecast to remain
across the Plains/Eastern CONUS into the first half of next week,
thus keeping the high pressure ridge at bay over the Western CONUS.
This puts upper level northwesterly flow across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas with a series of shortwaves forecast to push
through the region. The first of which come through Sunday
afternoon into Monday, and a second Monday night into Tuesday.
Shower chances increase overnight Sunday night and spreads across
the much of the CWA Monday with a focus across northeast Oklahoma
into western Arkansas. These showers spread southward Monday night
and get an increase in coverage with the second shortwave moving
into the region. By Tuesday the greater precip chances are likely
across the southern half of the CWA. Limited instability for each of
these disturbances to feed off of should help to limit over all
storm and severe potentials. The greater thunder potential looks to
be during the day Monday with small chances of thunder holding into
southeast Oklahoma Tuesday. Heavy rain threats will exist each day
for the CWA with increasing moisture advection associated with each
disturbance. At this time, widespread 1 to 2 inches and locally
higher amounts of rainfall are forecast over the CWA through
Tuesday, which could create a localized flood threat.
With the shortwaves moving through, a push of a cooler airmass is
progged to push into the region next week, with much below seasonal
average temperatures spreading from north to south over the CWA
Monday into Tuesday. Forecast high temps in the 70s and 80s remain
possible. These cooler temps will be dependent on the precip chances
and cloud cover holding over the region. Any breaks to the cloud
cover could warm temps more into the 80s. The greater potential for
this looks to be Wednesday. Behind the second shortwave,surface
high pressure originating from Canada moves over the Plains/Midwest
Wednesday. At the same time Wednesday, the mid/upper level trof axis
should be exiting to the east. The combination of the departing trof
and increasing surface high pressure, Wednesday could be a lull in
precip chances, while the continued cooler temperatures remain
common.
Surface high pressure exits Wednesday night with another shortwave
forecast to drop southeast through the Plains within the upper level
northwesterly flow. Shower and storm chances increase again
Wednesday night and continue into Friday over the CWA. Again, a
heavy rain threat looks to develop with the late week wave and
another couple of inches of rainfall could be possible. Temperatures
should continue to remain below seasonal average into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear
conditions with light winds are expected through the overnight
hours. A few showers may try to reach KBVO, but more likely it
will just bring widespread SCT to BKN mid level clouds. Clouds may
thin a bit towards the evening but will not completely dissipate.
Northeast winds will increase in the late morning as a cold front
moves through, with the strongest winds in northeast OK. Wind
gusts of 10-20 kts can be expected with the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 91 69 91 66 / 20 10 0 20
FSM 97 73 95 67 / 10 0 0 10
MLC 95 70 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 90 62 89 62 / 30 10 0 20
FYV 91 65 90 62 / 10 10 0 10
BYV 91 64 88 62 / 10 0 0 10
MKO 93 69 92 66 / 10 10 0 10
MIO 90 63 88 62 / 20 10 0 20
F10 93 68 91 66 / 10 10 0 10
HHW 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250823T0522.txt
942
FXUS64 KTSA 222309
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Near average temperatures through the weekend for eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas.
- Medium rain chances (30-60%) enter the forecast Sunday night through
much of next week with a locally heavy rainfall threat.
- Well below normal temperatures forecast for the last week of August.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Forecast area remains in the eastern side of an upper level ridge
centered near the Four Corners region with broad sfc high pressure
extending from the Great Lakes southwestward into the Southern
Plains. This pattern favors mostly dry conditions with near average
temps for late August. A slightly more unstable airmass does reside
over a portion of southeast OK, where an isolated shower may pop up
this afternoon over the terrain. At the moment the probability
looks less than 15%. Clear skies, light NE winds and near normal
overnight lows can be expected tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
A strong upper trough moving across southern Canada will cause the
upper ridge to become oriented more east-west across the southern
state Saturday. There are signals that a subtle piece of trailing
energy will brush northern parts of the forecast area and result in
isolated convection near the OK/KS border, but most of the area
remains dry with temps again close to normal.
Expectation remains that the ridge will amplify and retrograde later
in the weekend with moderate NW flow developing through the plains.
An initial weak frontal boundary will move into the area Sunday, but
not much impact aside from a slight downturn in temps across roughly
the northern half of the forecast area. A stronger shortwave will
get caught up in the NW flow Sunday night into Monday, when the more
significant changes to the weather will be felt for many of us, as
it also results in a more substantial southward push of cooler air.
Thus we expect fairly widespread coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms to expand across primarily northeast OK Sunday night
and Monday, with chances trending southward into Tuesday. This is
expected to keep temperatures rather cool for this time of year for
about the northern half of the forecast area, mostly 70s for highs
with some areas possibly spending much of the afternoon in the
60s...a big change indeed.
The large-scale pattern will remain dominated by a western
ridge/eastern trough regime into at least mid-week, with indications
of another substantial wave in northwest flow by Wed night or
Thursday. This likely results in another uptick of rain and thunder
chances during that time frame. Given this scenario it is possible
some areas will see significant rainfall during the upcoming week,
with at least low to moderate (30-50%) probability of rainfall
exceeding 3 inches indicated. The most impacted locations tough to
determine at this stage, but the potential heavy rainfall and
flooding impacts will exist and forecast should be monitored
closely. The severe weather threat ion this pattern should remain
minimal overall, though an organized MCS could happen given the
relatively strong flow.
Temperatures will be heavily dependent on cloud cover and
extent/duration of rainfall. Any prolonged periods in the daytime
likely keeps temps in the 70s or even 60s, while more sun would push
them into the 80s. Regardless the threat of excessive heat will be
negated for several days at least.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with scattered mid
cloud around through the rest of the evening and again during the
day tomorrow. Winds will generally remain light out of the north
or variable at times. A frontal boundary will enter NE OK and NW
AR tomorrow afternoon, bringing gustier north winds and more cloud
cover. Some isolated storm chances will also exists along the
boundary, but chances remain too low to mention at this point.
Even less fog coverage is expected tonight, so have kept mention
out, though some isolated instances of fog will be possible early
tomorrow morning across NW AR sites.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 68 92 69 90 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 71 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 67 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 62 90 61 88 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 65 92 65 90 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 65 91 64 88 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 67 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 65 90 63 88 / 0 10 0 0
F10 65 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 70 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250822T2309.txt
455
FXUS64 KTSA 221725
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
- Near average temperatures through the weekend for eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas.
- Medium rain chances (30-60%) enter the forecast Sunday night through
much of next week with a locally heavy rainfall threat.
- Well below normal temperatures forecast for the last week of August.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Forecast area remains in the eastern side of an upper level ridge
centered near the Four Corners region with broad sfc high pressure
extending from the Great Lakes southwestward into the Southern
Plains. This pattern favors mostly dry conditions with near average
temps for late August. A slightly more unstable airmass does reside
over a portion of southeast OK, where an isolated shower may pop up
this afternoon over the terrain. At the moment the probability
looks less than 15%. Clear skies, light NE winds and near normal
overnight lows can be expected tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
A strong upper trough moving across southern Canada will cause the
upper ridge to become oriented more east-west across the southern
state Saturday. There are signals that a subtle piece of trailing
energy will brush northern parts of the forecast area and result in
isolated convection near the OK/KS border, but most of the area
remains dry with temps again close to normal.
Expectation remains that the ridge will amplify and retrograde later
in the weekend with moderate NW flow developing through the plains.
An initial weak frontal boundary will move into the area Sunday, but
not much impact aside from a slight downturn in temps across roughly
the northern half of the forecast area. A stronger shortwave will
get caught up in the NW flow Sunday night into Monday, when the more
significant changes to the weather will be felt for many of us, as
it also results in a more substantial southward push of cooler air.
Thus we expect fairly widespread coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms to expand across primarily northeast OK Sunday night
and Monday, with chances trending southward into Tuesday. This is
expected to keep temperatures rather cool for this time of year for
about the northern half of the forecast area, mostly 70s for highs
with some areas possibly spending much of the afternoon in the
60s...a big change indeed.
The large-scale pattern will remain dominated by a western
ridge/eastern trough regime into at least mid-week, with indications
of another substantial wave in northwest flow by Wed night or
Thursday. This likely results in another uptick of rain and thunder
chances during that time frame. Given this scenario it is possible
some areas will see significant rainfall during the upcoming week,
with at least low to moderate (30-50%) probability of rainfall
exceeding 3 inches indicated. The most impacted locations tough to
determine at this stage, but the potential heavy rainfall and
flooding impacts will exist and forecast should be monitored
closely. The severe weather threat ion this pattern should remain
minimal overall, though an organized MCS could happen given the
relatively strong flow.
Temperatures will be heavily dependent on cloud cover and
extent/duration of rainfall. Any prolonged periods in the daytime
likely keeps temps in the 70s or even 60s, while more sun would push
them into the 80s. Regardless the threat of excessive heat will be
negated for several days at least.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with largely
diurnal cu atop the region. Wind speeds under 10 kts will prevail
through the period at all sites, with a north to northeast
direction at the E OK terminals and more variable in W AR. The
chance of MVFR visibilities around sunrise at FYV is nonzero, but
given how little developed this morning, will not include in the
TAF at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 68 92 69 90 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 71 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 67 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 62 90 61 88 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 65 92 65 90 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 65 91 64 88 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 67 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 65 90 63 88 / 0 10 0 0
F10 65 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 70 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250822T1725.txt
