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220
FXUS64 KTSA 111733
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1133 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Locally elevated fire weather concerns today due to low
relative humidities and strong, gusty winds.
- Roller coaster temperatures into early next week, with multiple
cold fronts set to move through the region.
- The strongest cold front in the period moves through late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Single digit wind
chill values Sunday morning north of I-40.
- Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Limited to locally elevated fire weather concerns exist this
afternoon given the continued dry low levels and return to well
above normal temperatures today aided by the development of strong
southwesterly, downslope winds. The current forecast targets a
small portion of east central Oklahoma /namely parts of southern
Creek, Okfuskee and western Okmulgee counties/ for the worst
combination of parameters, including 75th to 85th percentile ERC
values. Conditions will improve late afternoon into the evening
with the loss of daytime heating and an expected decrease in wind
speeds /albeit a modest one/.
Attention then turns to the next cold front, which will move
through late tonight/early Friday morning. Winds will shift to a
northerly direction and increase in speed for areas north of I-44
by daybreak Friday, although morning temperatures should remain
on the high side for this time of year in most locales.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
The aforementioned cold front will continue to move southward
into the day Friday, likely clearing the entire area by midday. A
gradient in daytime temperatures is likely to occur, with above
normal values hanging on for the southern half of the area and
noticeably cooler values for the northern half, especially when
considering the increase in wind speeds behind the front. Wind
speeds and gusts have been adjusted upward from the NBM
initialization using the NBM 75th percentile values for sustained
speeds and by mixing in the 90th percentile for the gusts.
Light southerly winds will make a return Saturday to portions of
the area but not enough to lead to much of a warmup in most areas
compared to Friday. There remains a very low chance of light
precipitation Saturday afternoon and evening in southeast Oklahoma
and perhaps into west central Arkansas, with the overall chance
remaining below mentionable levels for now.
The much advertised strong cold front remains on track to move
into the area beginning late afternoon Saturday and continuing
into Saturday night. Data trends continue to point more toward the
colder solutions, with forecast temperatures combined with strong
and gusty winds behind the front leading to apparent temperatures
Sunday morning in the single digits for areas north of I-40. Wind
speeds and gusts behind the front have been adjusted upward using
a similar process to those with the Friday front.
The center of the surface high behind the front will pass well to
the north and east of the area, with the surface ridge axis
pushing through Sunday night. Southerly winds will return to much
of the area by daybreak Monday and likely a non-diurnal low
temperature trend Sunday night and into Monday in most spots. The
post-frontal airmass looks to be cold enough that highs on Monday
should still be below normal despite the south winds. However,
above normal temperatures look to return by Tuesday and certainly
by Wednesday, continuing through the end of the work week given a
reduced meridional flow component in the upper level pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period
for all sites with FEW to SCT high cloud. Sfc winds remain gusty
this afternoon before decreasing overnight ahead of an approaching
cold front. LLWS is expected to develop across the region as the
LLJ strengthens overnight. The front begins to move through the
area by 10z, with winds shifting out of the north and northerly
LLWS developing across NE OK sites. By late morning, sfc winds
strengthen with gusts again near 20 kts, especially in NE OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 40 53 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 63 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 41 61 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 37 51 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 56 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 42 54 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 40 57 34 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 38 49 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
F10 40 57 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 40 64 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251211T1733.txt
567
FXUS64 KTSA 111712
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Locally elevated fire weather concerns today due to low
relative humidities and strong, gusty winds.
- Roller coaster temperatures into early next week, with multiple
cold fronts set to move through the region.
- The strongest cold front in the period moves through late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Single digit wind
chill values Sunday morning north of I-40.
- Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Limited to locally elevated fire weather concerns exist this
afternoon given the continued dry low levels and return to well
above normal temperatures today aided by the development of strong
southwesterly, downslope winds. The current forecast targets a
small portion of east central Oklahoma /namely parts of southern
Creek, Okfuskee and western Okmulgee counties/ for the worst
combination of parameters, including 75th to 85th percentile ERC
values. Conditions will improve late afternoon into the evening
with the loss of daytime heating and an expected decrease in wind
speeds /albeit a modest one/.
Attention then turns to the next cold front, which will move
through late tonight/early Friday morning. Winds will shift to a
northerly direction and increase in speed for areas north of I-44
by daybreak Friday, although morning temperatures should remain
on the high side for this time of year in most locales.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
The aforementioned cold front will continue to move southward
into the day Friday, likely clearing the entire area by midday. A
gradient in daytime temperatures is likely to occur, with above
normal values hanging on for the southern half of the area and
noticeably cooler values for the northern half, especially when
considering the increase in wind speeds behind the front. Wind
speeds and gusts have been adjusted upward from the NBM
initialization using the NBM 75th percentile values for sustained
speeds and by mixing in the 90th percentile for the gusts.
Light southerly winds will make a return Saturday to portions of
the area but not enough to lead to much of a warmup in most areas
compared to Friday. There remains a very low chance of light
precipitation Saturday afternoon and evening in southeast Oklahoma
and perhaps into west central Arkansas, with the overall chance
remaining below mentionable levels for now.
The much advertised strong cold front remains on track to move
into the area beginning late afternoon Saturday and continuing
into Saturday night. Data trends continue to point more toward the
colder solutions, with forecast temperatures combined with strong
and gusty winds behind the front leading to apparent temperatures
Sunday morning in the single digits for areas north of I-40. Wind
speeds and gusts behind the front have been adjusted upward using
a similar process to those with the Friday front.
The center of the surface high behind the front will pass well to
the north and east of the area, with the surface ridge axis
pushing through Sunday night. Southerly winds will return to much
of the area by daybreak Monday and likely a non-diurnal low
temperature trend Sunday night and into Monday in most spots. The
post-frontal airmass looks to be cold enough that highs on Monday
should still be below normal despite the south winds. However,
above normal temperatures look to return by Tuesday and certainly
by Wednesday, continuing through the end of the work week given a
reduced meridional flow component in the upper level pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to
southwest winds will gust over 20 knots at times today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 40 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 63 39 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 64 41 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 65 37 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 60 40 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 58 42 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 63 40 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 60 38 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
F10 65 40 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 61 40 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251211T1712.txt
811
FXUS64 KTSA 111119
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Roller coaster temperatures over the next week or so.
- Strong, dry cold front moves through on Saturday; well below
freezing temperatures expected Saturday night and Sunday
night.
- Precipitation chances remain low (below 20%) over the next 7
days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Mostly low impact weather will continue again today. Surface
ridge axis will shift south and east of the area early this
morning. Simultaneously, low pressure will develop along the High
Plains, strengthening through the daytime. The tightening
pressure gradient will cause breezy and gusty south/southwest
winds, with gusts 25-30 mph, across much of eastern OK and
northwest AR by late morning. Winds gradually decrease by mid-late
afternoon. Limited fire weather concerns will arise around midday
as the southwest winds draw in warm and dry air into the
district. Relative humidity values will drop into the 25 to 30
percent range along and west of Highway 75 in OK, and 30 to 40
percent elsewhere in the afternoon. Fire spread rates could exceed
100 feet/min for much of the area through the afternoon.
Otherwise, temperatures will warm up into the low-mid 60s for most
locations, upper 50s in higher terrain areas of southeast OK and
far northwest AR, underneath mostly sunny skies. Temperatures may
even approach 70 degrees for a few locations west of Highway 75.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Main highlight for the majority of the long-term period will be a
roller coaster of temperatures with a pair of cold fronts moving
through. The first cold front will sweep through the forecast area
on Friday morning, pushing south of the Red River by early
afternoon. Northerly winds will become gusty following the front
through the afternoon before decreasing Friday evening.
Temperatures ahead of the front on Friday will warm up into the
low-mid 60s, mainly across far southeast OK and the Arkansas River
Valley. Meanwhile, behind the front, temperatures will only warm
up into the low-mid 50s. Precipitation is not expected.
Model guidance continues to suggest winds will quickly veer back
out of the south again Saturday morning. Temperatures stay near or
just above average through Saturday. A second and more potent
Arctic cold front remains on track to push through the area
sometime late afternoon or early evening Saturday as a strong
1044-1045mb surface high descends from Canada and into the Upper
Midwest by Sunday morning. Although there is still some uncertainty
just how strong this front will be, deterministic and ensemble
guidance continues to trend temperatures colder than their
respective previous runs. A few of the colder solutions keep high
temperatures around or below freezing on Sunday for most areas
north of I-40. Apparent temperatures will be especially cold
Saturday night/Sunday morning as northerly winds remain breezy and
gusty through the majority of the morning on Sunday. If the
forecast verifies, minimum wind chill values Sunday morning will
vary from the single digits to teens, with wind chill values near
0 degrees near the OK/KS borders. A quick and abrupt warming trend
will occur beginning Monday as high pressure scoots eastward and
southerly winds return. Temperatures will continue to warm into
the middle part of the week, with highs warming back into the
upper 50s and lower 60s by Wednesday.
Precipitation chances appear to remain low (less than 20%)
through the long-term period. Best chance of isolated showers
will come Tuesday into Wednesday as shortwave trough/upper low
swings across central TX. Enough moisture may be drawn northward
for a few isolated showers, especially across southeast OK and
western AR. Kept PoPs just below mentionable (below 15%) for
southern and eastern edges of the CWA at this time. These PoPs
may need to be adjusted some in later forecasts if trends
continue.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to
southwest winds will gust over 20 knots at times today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 40 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 63 40 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 64 41 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 65 37 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 60 41 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 58 43 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 63 41 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 60 38 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
F10 65 41 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 61 40 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251211T1119.txt
499
FXUS64 KTSA 110434
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1034 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
- Roller coaster temperatures over the next week or so.
- Strong, dry cold front moves through on Saturday; well below
freezing temperatures expected Saturday night and Sunday
night.
- Precipitation chances remain low (below 20%) over the next 7
days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Mostly low impact weather will continue again today. Surface
ridge axis will shift south and east of the area early this
morning. Simultaneously, low pressure will develop along the High
Plains, strengthening through the daytime. The tightening
pressure gradient will cause breezy and gusty south/southwest
winds, with gusts 25-30 mph, across much of eastern OK and
northwest AR by late morning. Winds gradually decrease by mid-late
afternoon. Limited fire weather concerns will arise around midday
as the southwest winds draw in warm and dry air into the
district. Relative humidity values will drop into the 25 to 30
percent range along and west of Highway 75 in OK, and 30 to 40
percent elsewhere in the afternoon. Fire spread rates could exceed
100 feet/min for much of the area through the afternoon.
Otherwise, temperatures will warm up into the low-mid 60s for most
locations, upper 50s in higher terrain areas of southeast OK and
far northwest AR, underneath mostly sunny skies. Temperatures may
even approach 70 degrees for a few locations west of Highway 75.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Main highlight for the majority of the long-term period will be a
roller coaster of temperatures with a pair of cold fronts moving
through. The first cold front will sweep through the forecast area
on Friday morning, pushing south of the Red River by early
afternoon. Northerly winds will become gusty following the front
through the afternoon before decreasing Friday evening.
Temperatures ahead of the front on Friday will warm up into the
low-mid 60s, mainly across far southeast OK and the Arkansas River
Valley. Meanwhile, behind the front, temperatures will only warm
up into the low-mid 50s. Precipitation is not expected.
Model guidance continues to suggest winds will quickly veer back
out of the south again Saturday morning. Temperatures stay near or
just above average through Saturday. A second and more potent
Arctic cold front remains on track to push through the area
sometime late afternoon or early evening Saturday as a strong
1044-1045mb surface high descends from Canada and into the Upper
Midwest by Sunday morning. Although there is still some uncertainty
just how strong this front will be, deterministic and ensemble
guidance continues to trend temperatures colder than their
respective previous runs. A few of the colder solutions keep high
temperatures around or below freezing on Sunday for most areas
north of I-40. Apparent temperatures will be especially cold
Saturday night/Sunday morning as northerly winds remain breezy and
gusty through the majority of the morning on Sunday. If the
forecast verifies, minimum wind chill values Sunday morning will
vary from the single digits to teens, with wind chill values near
0 degrees near the OK/KS borders. A quick and abrupt warming trend
will occur beginning Monday as high pressure scoots eastward and
southerly winds return. Temperatures will continue to warm into
the middle part of the week, with highs warming back into the
upper 50s and lower 60s by Wednesday.
Precipitation chances appear to remain low (less than 20%)
through the long-term period. Best chance of isolated showers
will come Tuesday into Wednesday as shortwave trough/upper low
swings across central TX. Enough moisture may be drawn northward
for a few isolated showers, especially across southeast OK and
western AR. Kept PoPs just below mentionable (below 15%) for
southern and eastern edges of the CWA at this time. These PoPs
may need to be adjusted some in later forecasts if trends
continue.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
VFR conditions will persist with passing mid cloud ceilings. Winds
will turn southerly and become gusty on Thursday with mostly clear
skies.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 35 64 40 52 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 33 63 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 33 64 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 31 65 37 50 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 32 60 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 33 58 43 52 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 34 63 41 55 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 33 60 38 48 / 0 0 0 0
F10 35 65 41 55 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 33 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251211T0434.txt
316
FXUS64 KTSA 102304
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
504 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 504 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
- After the next few days, by the second half of the weekend,
cold temperatures will return to the region.
- Precipitation chances remain low over the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tomorrow night)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Low impact weather conditions expedited throughout the short term
forecast period. Broad H500 NW flow will keep high pressure
established across the region with ample sunshine. Northwest
surface winds the remainder of today in the wake of the passing
cold front earlier this morning will shift to southwesterly for
tomorrow. This will allow temperatures to rebound into the lower
60s for high tomorrow across much of Oklahoma, with mid to upper
50s for highs in NW Arkansas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Low impact weather conditions are expected to continue throughout
the majority of the long term forecast period. Going into Sunday,
a notable cold front will move southeast across the region,
resulting in temperatures to drop well below average for mid
December. Areas across far NE Oklahoma and far NW Arkansas may see
areas struggle to get out of the 30s for high temperatures, even
as far south as Tulsa itself. Exactly how strong the main low to
mid level CAA entering the region will factor in how widespread
the well below average temperatures will be, and will update
accordingly with future updates to the forecast.
Upper level flow will slowly shift from northwesterly to more
westerly across the region as we go into early next week.
This shift in the upper level pattern will result in southerly
surface flow aiding low level moisture return from the Gulf back
into portions of SE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas. This flow will
result in scattered showers chances (10-20% chance) for the far
southern areas of the CWA as the main mid level trough moves east
across the Red River valley to advect moisture northward for
Monday night into Tuesday. Depending on how fast the main trough
moves east, rain chances could then spread more into NW Arkansas
towards the end of the forecast period. OVerall temperatures with
the exception for Sunday will be near average throughout the
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
VFR conditions will continue with gusty southwesterly winds
developing on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 35 63 41 55 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 33 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 33 63 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 31 64 38 51 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 31 58 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 32 57 43 53 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 33 61 41 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 33 59 39 48 / 0 0 0 0
F10 34 63 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 33 59 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251210T2304.txt
