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256
FXUS64 KTSA 261124
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
- Showers and a few storms remain in the forecast through this
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy
overall.
- Another storm system impacts the region early next week with
strong winds and low to medium chances for rain.
- Below average temperatures forecast through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Low clouds and areas of fog likely continue through the overnight
period and into the morning hours. The upper low responsible for the
recent rainfall will move directly overhead, then east today, with
shower and thunder chances persisting across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Coverage will slowly decrease from west to east
today before ending completely by late evening or early overnight as
the low departs. Widespread cloudiness is likely for northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today, while southern zones will see
more sun breaks. Resulting high temps are held in the low-mid 60s
north of I-40 and upper 60s/ lower 70s to the south. Low
temperatures in the 50s (upper 40s for the typically colder spots)
persist for Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
High pressure briefly fills in for Monday before the next system
arrives on Tuesday. Amplified troughing moves into the central and
northern plains, with a cutoff low forecast to develop over our
area and into the Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday. The
associated cold front surges into the region during the day,
bringing low to medium rain/ thunder potential back to the forecast.
Still generally expecting rain to remain on the lighter side
(quarter inch or less for most areas), though guidance has generally
trended QPF upward in recent runs and there are several model
solutions which paint a corridor of higher totals near half an inch
or greater somewhere in the FA. NBM QPF has increased accordingly,
and currently paints highest totals across NW AR. Given the diverse
model outcomes and resulting lower confidence, will let NBM totals
ride for now. It should be noted that CAMs thus far are
considerably less aggressive with QPF during this period and
adjustments will likely be required as model solutions eventually
converge.
The aforementioned upper low deepens as it passes just to our east
on Wednesday, providing additional low rain chances to far NE OK and
NW AR. Widespread, strong post-frontal winds will likely be the most
notable impact from this storm system. Wind gusts in excess of 40
mph may develop during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, and will need
to monitor for possible Wind Advisory issuance. By Wednesday night,
northwest flow aloft develops with high pressure at the surface.
ECONUS troughing is projected through the remainder of the forecast
period, with weak ridging and predominantly dry conditions ensuing.
A shortwave is progged to pass overhead Friday but the bulk of model
solutions keep this feature dry, and this outcome is favored in the
forecast at this time. Temperatures remain below average for the
next several days, with highs mainly in the 60s (lower 70s south).
Low temperatures start out in the 40s and 50s next week, but fall
into the 30s across northern zones Wednesday night through Friday
night. Currently not expecting a freeze, but areas of frost may
develop mid to late week, just in time to welcome the month of
November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
IFR ceilings will persist through most of the forecast period,
with isolated to scattered light showers continuing well into the
afternoon. Passage of showers may temporarily raise ceilings to
MVFR at NW AR sites this morning. There remains a signal for a
period of MVFR ceilings across mainly eastern OK mid afternoon
into early evening, before IFR to LIFR ceilings return and
persist through at least early Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 53 67 54 / 30 0 0 20
FSM 66 55 68 55 / 60 10 0 20
MLC 68 53 71 54 / 50 10 0 20
BVO 61 50 65 50 / 20 0 10 30
FYV 63 48 66 49 / 60 10 0 20
BYV 58 50 61 51 / 60 10 0 20
MKO 65 53 68 54 / 40 10 0 20
MIO 61 52 66 53 / 40 10 0 20
F10 65 53 68 54 / 40 10 0 20
HHW 70 55 71 56 / 40 10 0 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251026T1124.txt
045
FXUS64 KTSA 260526
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
- Showers and a few storms remain in the forecast through this
afternoon. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy
overall.
- Another storm system impacts the region early next week with
strong winds and low to medium chances for rain.
- Below average temperatures forecast through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Low clouds and areas of fog likely continue through the overnight
period and into the morning hours. The upper low responsible for the
recent rainfall will move directly overhead, then east today, with
shower and thunder chances persisting across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Coverage will slowly decrease from west to east
today before ending completely by late evening or early overnight as
the low departs. Widespread cloudiness is likely for northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today, while southern zones will see
more sun breaks. Resulting high temps are held in the low-mid 60s
north of I-40 and upper 60s/ lower 70s to the south. Low
temperatures in the 50s (upper 40s for the typically colder spots)
persist for Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
High pressure briefly fills in for Monday before the next system
arrives on Tuesday. Amplified troughing moves into the central and
northern plains, with a cutoff low forecast to develop over our
area and into the Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday. The
associated cold front surges into the region during the day,
bringing low to medium rain/ thunder potential back to the forecast.
Still generally expecting rain to remain on the lighter side
(quarter inch or less for most areas), though guidance has generally
trended QPF upward in recent runs and there are several model
solutions which paint a corridor of higher totals near half an inch
or greater somewhere in the FA. NBM QPF has increased accordingly,
and currently paints highest totals across NW AR. Given the diverse
model outcomes and resulting lower confidence, will let NBM totals
ride for now. It should be noted that CAMs thus far are
considerably less aggressive with QPF during this period and
adjustments will likely be required as model solutions eventually
converge.
The aforementioned upper low deepens as it passes just to our east
on Wednesday, providing additional low rain chances to far NE OK and
NW AR. Widespread, strong post-frontal winds will likely be the most
notable impact from this storm system. Wind gusts in excess of 40
mph may develop during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, and will need
to monitor for possible Wind Advisory issuance. By Wednesday night,
northwest flow aloft develops with high pressure at the surface.
ECONUS troughing is projected through the remainder of the forecast
period, with weak ridging and predominantly dry conditions ensuing.
A shortwave is progged to pass overhead Friday but the bulk of model
solutions keep this feature dry, and this outcome is favored in the
forecast at this time. Temperatures remain below average for the
next several days, with highs mainly in the 60s (lower 70s south).
Low temperatures start out in the 40s and 50s next week, but fall
into the 30s across northern zones Wednesday night through Friday
night. Currently not expecting a freeze, but areas of frost may
develop mid to late week, just in time to welcome the month of
November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Widespread IFR conditions will continue across eastern OK, while
quickly trending that way across western AR early in this forecast
period. Cluster of thunderstorms near the center of upper low will
continue to move east and potentially impact KFSM, otherwise
scattered showers will continue through much of Sunday, while
diminishing from the west gradually. A period of MVFR conditions
is possible across eastern OK for Sunday afternoon, but potential
exists for IFR or even LIFR to return after 00z Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 53 67 54 / 30 0 0 20
FSM 66 55 68 55 / 60 10 0 20
MLC 68 53 71 54 / 50 10 0 20
BVO 61 50 65 50 / 20 0 10 30
FYV 63 48 66 49 / 60 10 0 20
BYV 58 50 61 51 / 60 10 0 20
MKO 65 53 68 54 / 40 10 0 20
MIO 61 52 66 53 / 40 10 0 20
F10 65 53 68 54 / 40 10 0 20
HHW 70 55 71 56 / 40 10 0 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251026T0526.txt
405
FXUS64 KTSA 260123
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
823 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 808 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
- Showers and a few storms remain in the forecast through Sunday
morning. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy overall.
- Another storm system impacts the region early next week with
gusty winds and low chances for rain.
- Seasonably cool temperatures forecast through the period
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 808 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Low to moderate elevated instability has expanded northward into
the southwest corner of the CWA. While the latest mesoscale
analysis indicates wind fields remain unfavorable for the
developing activity to become organized, there remains a low
(<20%) chance that one or two cells pulse enough to produce
marginally severe hail. The activity across southeast Oklahoma is
expected to gradually weaken through 09Z as it lifts northeast
while additional showers or drizzle develops closer to the low
center moving along the Kansas border. Earlier PoP updates
accounted for both the increase in storm coverage across southeast
Oklahoma and the showers to the north. Winds remain gusty across
northwest Arkansas where surface gradient continues to remain
tight with the surface ridge holding in place as a low pressure
center moves across north Texas. Expect low clouds and areas of
fog to continue in the resultant easterly flow through the
overnight hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
The upper level low and trough axis finally begins to shift east
of the local region during the day tomorrow. Rain chances will
diminish from west to east during the day tomorrow as the trough
axis moves through the region. Continued cloudiness will keep
temperatures down in the low 60s once again, though some clearing
is expected during the afternoon across southeast Oklahoma leading
to some 70s along the Red River. As this system finally exits,
another system is still progged to follow on its heels, bringing a
cold front through the area early next week. An upper low is
progged to drop southeastward out of the Northern Plains and
become cutoff and intensify over the Ozark Plateau Tuesday into
Wednesday. Moisture return ahead of the frontal boundary will be
very limited in the wake of the current system. Therefore rain
chances remain low with the frontal passage, with better chances
being south and east of the CWA. A few light showers will be
possible Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly in close proximity to the
upper low across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Any amounts are expected to be light if any rain does occur.
The bigger impact from the next system remains the likelihood or
gusty northwesterly winds both Tuesday and Wednesday behind the
front. Advisory level wind gusts appear possible both days for
parts of the region with gusts of 40 plus mph. As the system exits
Wednesday, surface ridging will settle into the region Wednesday
night and as skies clear, lows will drop into the 30s and lower
40s across the region. Some patchy frost could be possible by
Thursday morning for some of the normally colder locations. weak
upper ridging returns for the latter half of the week with a
warming trend expected into next weekend and dry conditions.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
With the upper low over north-central OK moving slowly east
through the period and moist easterly surface flow, there is high
confidence of IFR conditions developing at all sites overnight and
continuing through early Sunday afternoon. Occasionally LIFR
ceilings and visibility are forecast with -DZ toward daybreak
with continued poor flying conditions through the remainder of the
morning. There is a medium chance that conditions improve to MVFR
across OK TAF sites as the upper low moves into Missouri Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 62 52 66 / 40 30 0 10
FSM 58 66 54 69 / 70 40 10 0
MLC 56 68 52 71 / 60 30 10 0
BVO 51 60 48 64 / 50 20 10 10
FYV 52 61 48 66 / 70 50 10 10
BYV 52 57 50 61 / 70 70 20 0
MKO 56 64 53 68 / 60 30 0 0
MIO 53 60 51 65 / 60 30 10 10
F10 55 64 52 69 / 70 30 0 0
HHW 58 70 54 71 / 70 20 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251026T0123.txt
512
FXUS64 KTSA 251412
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
912 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 911 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
- Showers and a few storms remain in the forecast through
tonight. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy overall.
An isolated strong to severe storm is possible late this
afternoon over southern Oklahoma.
- Another storm system impacts the region early next week with
gusty winds and low chances for rain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
An area of low pressure aloft currently spins over the OK/TX
Panhandles this morning, moving east. A dry slot is lifting
northeast across Oklahoma on its eastern side. PoPs will trend
lower as the day progresses as a more widespread rain is replaced
by more showery activity in the dry slot. The 12Z HRRR has an
axis of SBCAPE developing over central, or more precisely, south-
central OK by late this afternoon and develops a few storms there.
An isolated strong to severe storm is possible, with hail the
main threat. Kept high temps cool with cloud cover expected to
persist.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Mid/upper level low pressure centered over New Mexico late Friday
night will continue its eastward track into western Oklahoma
Saturday afternoon. An increased area of vorticity lifting
northeast on the eastern side of the low will continue to spread
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Saturday
morning. This vort max interacting with an increased low level jet
and ongoing warm advection will continue to create widespread rain
showers over the CWA. Like last night, the main axis of instability
should remain west/southwest of the CWA, while the eastern periphery
of marginal elevated instability exists over eastern Oklahoma. Thus,
will continue with isolated/scattered thunder potential mainly west
of a Bartlesville to Muskogee to Hugo line into early Saturday
morning as convection should weaken the farther east/northeast from
the main instability.
Nearly saturated model soundings over the CWA and precipitable water
values in excess of 1.5 inches will aid in a continued heavy rain
threat that could lead to flooding into Saturday morning. Additional
rainfall from Friday night into Saturday morning of a half inch to
locally over 2 inches are forecast, with again the greater potential
along and west of the Bartlesville to Muskogee to Hugo line. The
northern periphery of the MCS south of the Red River Friday night
may try to make it into far southeast Oklahoma early Saturday
morning. For now will keep the current Flood Watch configuration,
though an isolated flash flood potential could develop into
southeast Oklahoma.
Saturday afternoon, as the low nears the CWA, a dry slot looks to
develop and spread into portions of southeast and east central
Oklahoma. This should begin to push the deeper moisture east of the
region, and thus decrease precip potential across the western half
of the CWA. Some short-term solutions continue to indicate isolated
afternoon storm development over parts of eastern Oklahoma,
depending if there are any breaks in cloud cover. However, it
continues look as if the greater instability axis holds west and
southwest of the CWA. For now will hold onto chance PoPs Saturday
afternoon for eastern Oklahoma.
Temperatures did not warm much Friday across the majority of the
region, and these temps look to not change much through Friday
night. During the day Saturday, temps try to warm back into the
upper 50s to mid 60s as the greater precipitation/moisture begins to
move off to the east.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Additional mainly rain chances spread across the CWA Saturday night
with the mid/upper low finally moving over the region. This
additional precip is forecast to taper off from west to east during
the day Sunday and exit western Arkansas Sunday evening/night as the
backside of the low departs. Additional rainfall Saturday night into
Sunday should generally remain less than a half inch. As the rains
taper off, temperatures Sunday afternoon look to warm into the 60s
north to low 70s near the Red River.
In the wake of the departing system, another low pressure is progged
to move through the Western CONUS and into the Plains Monday, and
then dig southeastward Monday night/Tuesday. Indications continue to
have the low pressure system become a closed low and strengthen
east/southeast of the CWA, while pushing a cold front through the
CWA Tuesday. Limited moisture return for this next system to feed on
as it pushes across the CWA should keep precip chances mainly to the
east/southeast. Slight to low end chances of rain continue to exist
for many the eastern half of the CWA Monday night-Tuesday night. The
more likely impact will be north/northwesterly winds increasing as
the low strengthens, with gusts of 30-35 mph forecast Tuesday into
Wednesday. Winds should begin to weaken Wednesday afternoon with the
low quickly exiting. Behind the exiting system, models want to clear
skies out and drop temps into the 30s/40s for Thursday morning with
a weak upper ridge quickly moving through late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
IFR to LIFR conditions can be expected across eastern OK through
the majority of the forecast period, while current VFR conditions
will deteriorate across western AR later this morning. A mid
level dry slot expands over the area with showers tapering off
this afternoon. However areas of drizzle will continue through the
end of the period with LIFR ceilings likely becoming more common
by Saturday evening area-wide.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 56 64 54 / 90 50 30 0
FSM 63 58 66 56 / 90 70 40 10
MLC 66 56 68 54 / 70 40 20 10
BVO 60 53 62 50 / 100 50 30 10
FYV 62 53 63 50 / 90 70 60 20
BYV 58 52 59 51 / 80 70 70 20
MKO 62 57 65 56 / 80 50 30 10
MIO 60 54 61 53 / 90 60 40 10
F10 64 56 67 54 / 80 40 20 0
HHW 69 60 71 56 / 80 70 20 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251025T1412.txt
576
FXUS64 KTSA 251131
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
- Periods of rain and thunderstorm chances are expected through
Saturday night. Locally heavy rainfall totals likely.
- Another storm system impacts the region early next week with
gusty winds and low chances for rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Mid/upper level low pressure centered over New Mexico late Friday
night will continue its eastward track into western Oklahoma
Saturday afternoon. An increased area of vorticity lifting
northeast on the eastern side of the low will continue to spread
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Saturday
morning. This vort max interacting with an increased low level jet
and ongoing warm advection will continue to create widespread rain
showers over the CWA. Like last night, the main axis of instability
should remain west/southwest of the CWA, while the eastern periphery
of marginal elevated instability exists over eastern Oklahoma. Thus,
will continue with isolated/scattered thunder potential mainly west
of a Bartlesville to Muskogee to Hugo line into early Saturday
morning as convection should weaken the farther east/northeast from
the main instability.
Nearly saturated model soundings over the CWA and precipitable water
values in excess of 1.5 inches will aid in a continued heavy rain
threat that could lead to flooding into Saturday morning. Additional
rainfall from Friday night into Saturday morning of a half inch to
locally over 2 inches are forecast, with again the greater potential
along and west of the Bartlesville to Muskogee to Hugo line. The
northern periphery of the MCS south of the Red River Friday night
may try to make it into far southeast Oklahoma early Saturday
morning. For now will keep the current Flood Watch configuration,
though an isolated flash flood potential could develop into
southeast Oklahoma.
Saturday afternoon, as the low nears the CWA, a dry slot looks to
develop and spread into portions of southeast and east central
Oklahoma. This should begin to push the deeper moisture east of the
region, and thus decrease precip potential across the western half
of the CWA. Some short-term solutions continue to indicate isolated
afternoon storm development over parts of eastern Oklahoma,
depending if there are any breaks in cloud cover. However, it
continues look as if the greater instability axis holds west and
southwest of the CWA. For now will hold onto chance PoPs Saturday
afternoon for eastern Oklahoma.
Temperatures did not warm much Friday across the majority of the
region, and these temps look to not change much through Friday
night. During the day Saturday, temps try to warm back into the
upper 50s to mid 60s as the greater precipitation/moisture begins to
move off to the east.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Additional mainly rain chances spread across the CWA Saturday night
with the mid/upper low finally moving over the region. This
additional precip is forecast to taper off from west to east during
the day Sunday and exit western Arkansas Sunday evening/night as the
backside of the low departs. Additional rainfall Saturday night into
Sunday should generally remain less than a half inch. As the rains
taper off, temperatures Sunday afternoon look to warm into the 60s
north to low 70s near the Red River.
In the wake of the departing system, another low pressure is progged
to move through the Western CONUS and into the Plains Monday, and
then dig southeastward Monday night/Tuesday. Indications continue to
have the low pressure system become a closed low and strengthen
east/southeast of the CWA, while pushing a cold front through the
CWA Tuesday. Limited moisture return for this next system to feed on
as it pushes across the CWA should keep precip chances mainly to the
east/southeast. Slight to low end chances of rain continue to exist
for many the eastern half of the CWA Monday night-Tuesday night. The
more likely impact will be north/northwesterly winds increasing as
the low strengthens, with gusts of 30-35 mph forecast Tuesday into
Wednesday. Winds should begin to weaken Wednesday afternoon with the
low quickly exiting. Behind the exiting system, models want to clear
skies out and drop temps into the 30s/40s for Thursday morning with
a weak upper ridge quickly moving through late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
IFR to LIFR conditions can be expected across eastern OK through
the majority of the forecast period, while current VFR conditions
will deteriorate across western AR later this morning. A mid
level dry slot expands over the area with showers tapering off
this afternoon. However areas of drizzle will continue through the
end of the period with LIFR ceilings likely becoming more common
by Saturday evening area-wide.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 56 64 54 / 80 50 30 0
FSM 63 58 66 56 / 80 70 40 10
MLC 64 56 68 54 / 50 40 20 10
BVO 60 53 62 50 / 90 50 30 10
FYV 61 53 63 50 / 90 70 60 20
BYV 59 52 59 51 / 90 70 70 20
MKO 62 57 65 56 / 80 50 30 10
MIO 60 54 61 53 / 90 60 40 10
F10 62 56 67 54 / 70 40 20 0
HHW 67 60 71 56 / 60 70 20 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>056-059>061-
064>067-070-071.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251025T1131.txt
