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550
FXUS64 KTSA 160519
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
- Very cold this morning with wind chills in the teens and single
digits. Another hard freeze is expected Monday night/Tuesday
morning.
- Despite cold afternoon temperatures, low relative humidities
and breezy northwest winds promote elevated fire weather
conditions Monday afternoon.
- Significant warming trend Tuesday through this weekend, with
well above average temperatures by mid to late week.
Precipitation unlikely for several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Winter decided to pay us a visit again today, with temperatures
starting out this morning in the 20s or upper 10s for much of the
area. Morning wind chills will be even lower, likely in the teens
or single digits, as the northwesterly breeze persists. Despite
mostly sunny skies, temperatures are unlikely to recover much this
afternoon, likely held in the upper 30s/40s. Much drier air will
be in place today as well, leading to min RH values mostly in the
15-25% range. Thus, fire weather will again be a concern for much
of the CWA as northwest winds gust 20-30 mph this afternoon. Winds
decrease by this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Another hard freeze is expected areawide Monday night/Tuesday
morning as high pressure slides east over the region. Southerly
flow will return during the day Tuesday, quickly warming things
back up into the 50s and 60s. With dry air still in place and
winds gusting to 25 mph, fire weather concerns will persist on
Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each day
through the end of the week as SW CONUS ridging intensifies and
expands into the region. By Friday and Saturday, highs in the mid-
upper 80s are forecast, with some locations potentially eclipsing
90 degrees. This is 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time
of year. Most models hint at a frontal intrusion early next week,
likely cooling things off somewhat. Dry weather is probable
over the next several days, and fire weather potential will
continue to be the main concern through the period. Long range
guidance suggests a pattern change may take place by late month...
perhaps opening the door for more active weather and
precipitation chances again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Gusty winds continue through Monday though not as strong as the
previous day. Ongoing low clouds across NW AR will erode across
the region by sunrise with mostly clear skies area wide and VFR
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 42 25 62 46 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 41 24 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 43 25 60 45 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 41 20 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 36 19 53 41 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 35 20 51 43 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 41 23 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 37 20 55 43 / 0 0 0 0
F10 43 24 61 46 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 44 27 58 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ049-
053>076.
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for ARZ001-002-
010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260316T0519.txt
237
FXUS64 KTSA 160442
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Very cold this morning with wind chills in the teens and single
digits. Another hard freeze is expected Monday night/Tuesday
morning.
- Despite cold afternoon temperatures, low relative humidities
and breezy northwest winds promote elevated fire weather
conditions Monday afternoon.
- Significant warming trend Tuesday through this weekend, with
well above average temperatures by mid to late week.
Precipitation unlikely for several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Winter decided to pay us a visit again today, with temperatures
starting out this morning in the 20s or upper 10s for much of the
area. Morning wind chills will be even lower, likely in the teens
or single digits, as the northwesterly breeze persists. Despite
mostly sunny skies, temperatures are unlikely to recover much this
afternoon, likely held in the upper 30s/40s. Much drier air will
be in place today as well, leading to min RH values mostly in the
15-25% range. Thus, fire weather will again be a concern for much
of the CWA as northwest winds gust 20-30 mph this afternoon. Winds
decrease by this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Another hard freeze is expected areawide Monday night/Tuesday
morning as high pressure slides east over the region. Southerly
flow will return during the day Tuesday, quickly warming things
back up into the 50s and 60s. With dry air still in place and
winds gusting to 25 mph, fire weather concerns will persist on
Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each day
through the end of the week as SW CONUS ridging intensifies and
expands into the region. By Friday and Saturday, highs in the mid-
upper 80s are forecast, with some locations potentially eclipsing
90 degrees. This is 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time
of year. Most models hint at a frontal intrusion early next week,
likely cooling things off somewhat. Dry weather is probable
over the next several days, and fire weather potential will
continue to be the main concern through the period. Long range
guidance suggests a pattern change may take place by late month...
perhaps opening the door for more active weather and
precipitation chances again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Band of light snow may still be ongoing by 00z at KXNA/KROG, and
MVFR ceilings likely to linger across northwest AR through much of
the evening, before clearing between 06-09z. VFR conditions will
prevail otherwise. Strong and gusty NW winds continue this evening
with gusts 30-40 knots at times through tonight, before speeds
trend downward Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 23 42 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 25 41 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 25 43 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 18 41 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 18 36 19 53 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 20 35 20 51 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 24 41 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 20 37 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
F10 24 43 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 29 44 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260316T0442.txt
778
FXUS64 KTSA 152324
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Area-wide Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM Monday
for northwest wind gusts 45 to 55 mph.
- Near-critical to critical fire spread rates expected through
this afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 75.
- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist along/ahead of
the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
early this afternoon. The threat pushes east by mid afternoon.
- Light snow may mix with light rain across extreme eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this afternoon and into
this evening. Very little to no snow accumulations expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
At 11 AM, a robust cold front was analyzed south and east of the
I-44 corridor. As anticipated, very strong northwest winds have
developed behind the frontal boundary, with gusts in excess of 40
mph at times. Gusts 35 to 45 mph will remain common, occasionally
up to 55 mph, through the remainder of the afternoon and into
this evening. The main concern with these winds through the
remainder of the afternoon will be the near-critical to locally
critical fire weather potential/fire spread rates, especially for
portions of northeast and eastern-central OK (generally west of
Highway 75) where rainfall has been limited recently and relative
humidity values will be lowest (30-35%) through this afternoon.
Any wildfire that ignites will spread very fast. A Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement remains intact for northeast OK and northwest AR.
A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along and just
ahead of the frontal boundary late this morning. Some maturing
and organization in the storms may occur over the next couple of
hours as the the cold front/storms begin to exit south and east
of the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard
with any organized storm, potentially with gusts up to 65 mph, but
small to marginally severe hail will also briefly be possible.
The severe storm threat is expected to end by 3-4 PM. Overall
rainfall amounts will stay light and confined to portions of far
eastern OK and northwest AR, up to a couple of tenths of an inch
at most. Light precipitation will wrap around the backside of the
departing upper-level trough by mid afternoon. This precipitation
is expected to stay limited to along and north of Highway 412 in
northeast OK and far northwest AR. This band of precipitation
will drift eastward along the KS/OK/MO/AR borders late this
afternoon and into early this evening. Light rain may eventually
mix with snow flurries by late afternoon and into this evening.
Snow accumulations and winter weather impacts are not expected.
The exceptionally gusty northwest winds will slowly decrease
through the evening and overnight hours, but gusts 30 to 40 mph
will persist well after sunset this evening. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect until 1 AM Monday, with gusts 30 to 35 mph
persisting beyond the expiration of the advisory. Skies will clear
from northwest to southeast late this evening and overnight
tonight. Clear skies are expected to prevail for most locations by
sunrise Monday morning. Winter will return tonight with bitterly
cold temperatures and wind chill values. A widespread hard freeze,
with overnight lows falling into the teens and 20s and wind chill
values as low as the single digits and teens, will occur tonight.
Any outdoor sensitive vegetation should be moved inside or
covered to prevent damage.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Monday will start off bitterly cold, with temperatures in the
teens and 20s (wind chills in the single digits and teens) by the
morning commute. Temperature will have a difficult time recovering
during the daytime, with brisk and gusty northwest winds
remaining in place. Despite mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs
will struggle to get out of the 40s for much of eastern OK and
west-central AR and may struggle to get out of the 30s in far
northwest AR and far northeast OK. With continuous gusty
northwest winds and a much drier airmass in place, elevated fire
weather concerns will pursue through the daytime Monday. Another
widespread hard freeze will occur Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with overnight low dropping into the 20s for most
locations. Moisture will be slow to recover into Tuesday, and
once again elevated fire weather concerns will arise by Tuesday
afternoon as winds switch back out of the south and become breezy.
Precipitation will be hard to come by in the long-term period.
Stagnant northwest winds aloft and a stout, summer-like ridge
over the Desert Southwest will help lock-in very dry air and will
make it difficult for precipitation to form or move into the
region through the upcoming workweek. Temperatures will begin to
climb each day, beginning on Tuesday, through next weekend with
no CAA/cold fronts in the forecast at this time. Temperatures may
reach the 90s for portions of the forecast area as early as
Thursday, with widespread upper 80s and lower 90s by Saturday.
Periodic breezy winds and dry weather will keep at least limited
fire weather potential each day through the long- term period.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Band of light snow may still be ongoing by 00z at KXNA/KROG, and
MVFR ceilings likely to linger across northwest AR through much of
the evening, before clearing between 06-09z. VFR conditions will
prevail otherwise. Strong and gusty NW winds continue this evening
with gusts 30-40 knots at times through tonight, before speeds
trend downward Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 23 44 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 25 43 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 25 45 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 18 42 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 18 39 19 54 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 20 35 19 52 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 24 42 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 20 38 19 54 / 10 0 0 0
F10 24 45 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 29 45 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260315T2324.txt
951
FXUS64 KTSA 151714
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Area-wide Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM Monday
for northwest wind gusts 45 to 55 mph.
- Near-critical to critical fire spread rates expected through
this afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 75.
- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist along/ahead of
the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
early this afternoon. The threat pushes east by mid afternoon.
- Light snow may mix with light rain across extreme eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this afternoon and into
this evening. Very little to no snow accumulations expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
At 11 AM, a robust cold front was analyzed south and east of the
I-44 corridor. As anticipated, very strong northwest winds have
developed behind the frontal boundary, with gusts in excess of 40
mph at times. Gusts 35 to 45 mph will remain common, occasionally
up to 55 mph, through the remainder of the afternoon and into
this evening. The main concern with these winds through the
remainder of the afternoon will be the near-critical to locally
critical fire weather potential/fire spread rates, especially for
portions of northeast and eastern-central OK (generally west of
Highway 75) where rainfall has been limited recently and relative
humidity values will be lowest (30-35%) through this afternoon.
Any wildfire that ignites will spread very fast. A Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement remains intact for northeast OK and northwest AR.
A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along and just
ahead of the frontal boundary late this morning. Some maturing
and organization in the storms may occur over the next couple of
hours as the the cold front/storms begin to exit south and east
of the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard
with any organized storm, potentially with gusts up to 65 mph, but
small to marginally severe hail will also briefly be possible.
The severe storm threat is expected to end by 3-4 PM. Overall
rainfall amounts will stay light and confined to portions of far
eastern OK and northwest AR, up to a couple of tenths of an inch
at most. Light precipitation will wrap around the backside of the
departing upper-level trough by mid afternoon. This precipitation
is expected to stay limited to along and north of Highway 412 in
northeast OK and far northwest AR. This band of precipitation
will drift eastward along the KS/OK/MO/AR borders late this
afternoon and into early this evening. Light rain may eventually
mix with snow flurries by late afternoon and into this evening.
Snow accumulations and winter weather impacts are not expected.
The exceptionally gusty northwest winds will slowly decrease
through the evening and overnight hours, but gusts 30 to 40 mph
will persist well after sunset this evening. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect until 1 AM Monday, with gusts 30 to 35 mph
persisting beyond the expiration of the advisory. Skies will clear
from northwest to southeast late this evening and overnight
tonight. Clear skies are expected to prevail for most locations by
sunrise Monday morning. Winter will return tonight with bitterly
cold temperatures and wind chill values. A widespread hard freeze,
with overnight lows falling into the teens and 20s and wind chill
values as low as the single digits and teens, will occur tonight.
Any outdoor sensitive vegetation should be moved inside or
covered to prevent damage.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Monday will start off bitterly cold, with temperatures in the
teens and 20s (wind chills in the single digits and teens) by the
morning commute. Temperature will have a difficult time recovering
during the daytime, with brisk and gusty northwest winds
remaining in place. Despite mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs
will struggle to get out of the 40s for much of eastern OK and
west-central AR and may struggle to get out of the 30s in far
northwest AR and far northeast OK. With continuous gusty
northwest winds and a much drier airmass in place, elevated fire
weather concerns will pursue through the daytime Monday. Another
widespread hard freeze will occur Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with overnight low dropping into the 20s for most
locations. Moisture will be slow to recover into Tuesday, and
once again elevated fire weather concerns will arise by Tuesday
afternoon as winds switch back out of the south and become breezy.
Precipitation will be hard to come by in the long-term period.
Stagnant northwest winds aloft and a stout, summer-like ridge
over the Desert Southwest will help lock-in very dry air and will
make it difficult for precipitation to form or move into the
region through the upcoming workweek. Temperatures will begin to
climb each day, beginning on Tuesday, through next weekend with
no CAA/cold fronts in the forecast at this time. Temperatures may
reach the 90s for portions of the forecast area as early as
Thursday, with widespread upper 80s and lower 90s by Saturday.
Periodic breezy winds and dry weather will keep at least limited
fire weather potential each day through the long- term period.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Cold front is sweeping southeast across the region and will be
impacting the NW AR TAF sites in the near term. Spotty showers in
the region warrants a -shra mention, with thunder chances high
enough to warrant prob30 -tsra mention at all of those sites
between 18Z and 20Z. After fropa, conditions should be largely
VFR, though some potential for higher-end MVFR cigs is showing up
late in the day and into the evening across far NW AR. Skies will
eventually clear from W to E by daybreak Monday morning.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 23 44 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 25 43 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 25 45 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 18 42 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 18 39 19 54 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 20 35 19 52 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 24 42 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 20 38 19 54 / 10 0 0 0
F10 24 45 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 29 45 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260315T1714.txt
214
FXUS64 KTSA 151656
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Area-wide Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM Monday
for northwest wind gusts 45 to 55 mph.
- Near-critical to critical fire spread rates expected through
this afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 75.
- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist along/ahead of
the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
early this afternoon. The threat pushes east by mid afternoon.
- Light snow may mix with light rain across extreme eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this afternoon and into
this evening. Very little to no snow accumulations expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
At 11 AM, a robust cold front was analyzed south and east of the
I-44 corridor. As anticipated, very strong northwest winds have
developed behind the frontal boundary, with gusts in excess of 40
mph at times. Gusts 35 to 45 mph will remain common, occasionally
up to 55 mph, through the remainder of the afternoon and into
this evening. The main concern with these winds through the
remainder of the afternoon will be the near-critical to locally
critical fire weather potential/fire spread rates, especially for
portions of northeast and eastern-central OK (generally west of
Highway 75) where rainfall has been limited recently and relative
humidity values will be lowest (30-35%) through this afternoon.
Any wildfire that ignites will spread very fast. A Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement remains intact for northeast OK and northwest AR.
A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along and just
ahead of the frontal boundary late this morning. Some maturing
and organization in the storms may occur over the next couple of
hours as the the cold front/storms begin to exit south and east
of the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard
with any organized storm, potentially with gusts up to 65 mph, but
small to marginally severe hail will also briefly be possible.
The severe storm threat is expected to end by 3-4 PM. Overall
rainfall amounts will stay light and confined to portions of far
eastern OK and northwest AR, up to a couple of tenths of an inch
at most. Light precipitation will wrap around the backside of the
departing upper-level trough by mid afternoon. This precipitation
is expected to stay limited to along and north of Highway 412 in
northeast OK and far northwest AR. This band of precipitation
will drift eastward along the KS/OK/MO/AR borders late this
afternoon and into early this evening. Light rain may eventually
mix with snow flurries by late afternoon and into this evening.
Snow accumulations and winter weather impacts are not expected.
The exceptionally gusty northwest winds will slowly decrease
through the evening and overnight hours, but gusts 30 to 40 mph
will persist well after sunset this evening. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect until 1 AM Monday, with gusts 30 to 35 mph
persisting beyond the expiration of the advisory. Skies will clear
from northwest to southeast late this evening and overnight
tonight. Clear skies are expected to prevail for most locations by
sunrise Monday morning. Winter will return tonight with bitterly
cold temperatures and wind chill values. A widespread hard freeze,
with overnight lows falling into the teens and 20s and wind chill
values as low as the single digits and teens, will occur tonight.
Any outdoor sensitive vegetation should be moved inside or
covered to prevent damage.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Monday will start off bitterly cold, with temperatures in the
teens and 20s (wind chills in the single digits and teens) by the
morning commute. Temperature will have a difficult time recovering
during the daytime, with brisk and gusty northwest winds
remaining in place. Despite mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs
will struggle to get out of the 40s for much of eastern OK and
west-central AR and may struggle to get out of the 30s in far
northwest AR and far northeast OK. With continuous gusty
northwest winds and a much drier airmass in place, elevated fire
weather concerns will pursue through the daytime Monday. Another
widespread hard freeze will occur Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with overnight low dropping into the 20s for most
locations. Moisture will be slow to recover into Tuesday, and
once again elevated fire weather concerns will arise by Tuesday
afternoon as winds switch back out of the south and become breezy.
Precipitation will be hard to come by in the long-term period.
Stagnant northwest winds aloft and a stout, summer-like ridge
over the Desert Southwest will help lock-in very dry air and will
make it difficult for precipitation to form or move into the
region through the upcoming workweek. Temperatures will begin to
climb each day, beginning on Tuesday, through next weekend with
no CAA/cold fronts in the forecast at this time. Temperatures may
reach the 90s for portions of the forecast area as early as
Thursday, with widespread upper 80s and lower 90s by Saturday.
Periodic breezy winds and dry weather will keep at least limited
fire weather potential each day through the long- term period.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Strong and gusty southerly winds ongoing will become northwesterly
and increase further as the advancing cold front sweeps rapidly
eastward. MVFR ceilings have spread into SE OK and will continue
an NNE advance prior to the frontal passage. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms remain possible primarily across NW AR and the
window for any aviation impact will be brief at any specific
terminal. Periods of low VFR ceilings may persist into the evening
with a low chance of a light wintry mix across NW AR. No winter
impacts expected. Winds will remain gusty through the overnight
hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 23 44 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 25 43 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 25 45 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 18 42 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 18 39 19 54 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 20 35 19 52 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 24 42 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 20 38 19 54 / 10 0 0 0
F10 24 45 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 29 45 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260315T1656.txt
582
FXUS64 KTSA 151409
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
909 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 909 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Area-wide Wind Advisory in effect until 1 AM Monday for gusts
45 to 55 mph.
- Near-critical to critical fire spread rates expected Sunday
afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 75.
- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist along/ahead of
the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
Sunday.
- Light snow remains possible across extreme eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Sunday evening/night. Little, if any,
accumulation expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Morning WV imagery depicts a strong shortwave trough dropping
east-southeast into the central CONUS, on the nose of a nearly 100
kt 500mb jet. At the surface, low pressure was centered over
northern MO, with a cold front trailing southwest from there into
central and southwest OK.
Ahead of the front, a stream of upper 50s to near 60 dewpoint air
has lifted up into the region, along with a band of low cloud.
The latest short-term guidance has remained consistent that as the
front moves over far NE OK into NW AR, showers and a few storms
are expected to develop. There is a limited risk of severe wind or
hail with these storms before they move rapidly east and out of
the forecast area by mid-afternoon.
Behind the front, NWrly winds will gust 45 to 55 mph. While an
isolated warning criteria gust is possible, especially in the
higher terrain later, confidence is not high enough to upgrade any
areas to a warning at this time.
Near critical fire weather conditions are expected in the windy
conditions behind the front, despite the cooling temps. If a fire
can get going, weather conditions would support fast spread of
those fires. However, on a day like today it may be more difficult
to get fires started. Humidity values are expected to stay above
30 percent due to the cooling conditions, despite the drop in
dewpoints. Will therefore maintain current RFD status.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
South winds have become breezy early Saturday night as pressure
gradients tighten across the region. With the low level jet
strengthening overnight, gusts will generally increase to 30 to 40
mph. Periodic gusts up to 45 mph will be possible, especially in
the higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR. By daybreak Sunday, a
strong cold front will be moving through central Kansas and
northwest Oklahoma...quickly advancing toward the FA. The front
will sweep through our area during the morning hours before
clearing the CWA in the early-mid afternoon.
Northwest winds behind the front will become very strong, with gusts
generally between 45 to 55 mph during the afternoon and evening
hours. A Wind Advisory remains in effect areawide from 1 AM Sunday
until 1 AM Monday. With 50-60kt 850mb winds overhead, isolated gusts
in excess of 60 mph will certainly be possible, particularly along
and northwest of I-44 and within the higher terrain of SE OK and NW
AR. Currently expect any warning-level winds (40 mph sustained,
58+ mph gusts) will remain limited in duration and coverage across
our area. However, observations will be monitored closely in case
a warning becomes warranted. Relative humidities will fall behind
the front, but should generally remain near/greater than 30% as
temperatures rapidly decrease through the afternoon. Thus, while
the environment may not be overly favorable for new fire starts,
near-critical to critical fire spread rates are likely due to such
strong wind speeds.
Some light showers will be possible within the warm, moist
environment ahead of the front Sunday morning. However, better
rain potential is expected by late morning/early afternoon as
showers and thunderstorms develop along the advancing cold front.
Latest guidance has continued to favor a quicker FROPA, which will
tend to limit precipitation chances across E OK and NW AR. The
best thunder/severe potential will likely remain restricted to NW
AR zones, perhaps briefly in far E OK. If any storms did manage
to intensify within our CWA, damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern, mainly between noon and 3 PM. Storms will quickly move
off to the east thereafter. Rainfall is likely to remain less than
a tenth of an inch across NW AR and far E OK, with little or no
rain for the remainder of E OK.
Coming off of a warm night, temperatures may briefly warm into
the upper 60s or 70s ahead of the cold front Sunday morning /
afternoon. Temperatures will then quickly decrease through the day
in the post-frontal airmass, falling into the 30s by the evening.
Wrap around moisture may still clip portions of NE OK and NW AR
Sunday evening, but models have generally trended drier during
this time. Any precipitation that occurs during this time would
likely be a rain/snow mix or snow. However, little if any
accumulation is expected. Temps continue to plummet overnight,
with low temperatures generally in the 20s (upper teens far north
OK/AR). This will be a hard to killing freeze for most of the
CWA, and any outdoor sensitive vegetation should be moved inside
or covered to prevent damage.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Monday morning will be miserably cold as a persistent northwest
breeze brings wind chills into the single digits (north) and teens
(south). In fact, a few locations in far NE OK and NW AR could
briefly see wind chill values near 0 degrees around sunrise.
Temperatures don't recover much during the day... likely remaining
in the 30s and 40s areawide. Widespread freezing temperatures are
likely again Monday night. Please be sure to bundle up as it will
very much feel like winter Monday and Tuesday morning.
The good news is temperatures will begin to warm back up quickly
through the week as upper level ridging expands across the Desert
SW and Southern Plains. By late week, highs in the 80s will be
common, perhaps eclipsing 90 degrees in a few areas Friday /
Saturday. Dry conditions are probable through the remainder of the
forecast period, with at least limited fire weather concerns
likely persisting.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Strong and gusty southerly winds ongoing will become northwesterly
and increase further as the advancing cold front sweeps rapidly
eastward. MVFR ceilings have spread into SE OK and will continue
an NNE advance prior to the frontal passage. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms remain possible primarily across NW AR and the
window for any aviation impact will be brief at any specific
terminal. Periods of low VFR ceilings may persist into the evening
with a low chance of a light wintry mix across NW AR. No winter
impacts expected. Winds will remain gusty through the overnight
hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 23 43 25 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 69 24 43 24 / 80 0 0 0
MLC 72 25 45 26 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 67 18 43 19 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 64 18 38 19 / 90 10 0 0
BYV 65 19 35 19 / 90 10 0 0
MKO 70 23 43 24 / 30 0 0 0
MIO 67 20 38 19 / 40 10 0 0
F10 71 24 46 25 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 73 28 46 27 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260315T1409.txt
428
FXUS64 KTSA 151126
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Area-wide Wind Advisory in effect from 1 AM Sunday until 1 AM
Monday for gusts up to 55 mph.
- Near-critical to critical fire spread rates expected Sunday
afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 75.
- A low threat of severe thunderstorms will exist along/ahead of
the front across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
Sunday.
- Light snow remains possible across extreme eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Sunday evening/night. Little, if any,
accumulation expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
South winds have become breezy early Saturday night as pressure
gradients tighten across the region. With the low level jet
strengthening overnight, gusts will generally increase to 30 to 40
mph. Periodic gusts up to 45 mph will be possible, especially in
the higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR. By daybreak Sunday, a
strong cold front will be moving through central Kansas and
northwest Oklahoma...quickly advancing toward the FA. The front
will sweep through our area during the morning hours before
clearing the CWA in the early-mid afternoon.
Northwest winds behind the front will become very strong, with gusts
generally between 45 to 55 mph during the afternoon and evening
hours. A Wind Advisory remains in effect areawide from 1 AM Sunday
until 1 AM Monday. With 50-60kt 850mb winds overhead, isolated gusts
in excess of 60 mph will certainly be possible, particularly along
and northwest of I-44 and within the higher terrain of SE OK and NW
AR. Currently expect any warning-level winds (40 mph sustained,
58+ mph gusts) will remain limited in duration and coverage across
our area. However, observations will be monitored closely in case
a warning becomes warranted. Relative humidities will fall behind
the front, but should generally remain near/greater than 30% as
temperatures rapidly decrease through the afternoon. Thus, while
the environment may not be overly favorable for new fire starts,
near-critical to critical fire spread rates are likely due to such
strong wind speeds.
Some light showers will be possible within the warm, moist
environment ahead of the front Sunday morning. However, better
rain potential is expected by late morning/early afternoon as
showers and thunderstorms develop along the advancing cold front.
Latest guidance has continued to favor a quicker FROPA, which will
tend to limit precipitation chances across E OK and NW AR. The
best thunder/severe potential will likely remain restricted to NW
AR zones, perhaps briefly in far E OK. If any storms did manage
to intensify within our CWA, damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern, mainly between noon and 3 PM. Storms will quickly move
off to the east thereafter. Rainfall is likely to remain less than
a tenth of an inch across NW AR and far E OK, with little or no
rain for the remainder of E OK.
Coming off of a warm night, temperatures may briefly warm into
the upper 60s or 70s ahead of the cold front Sunday morning /
afternoon. Temperatures will then quickly decrease through the day
in the post-frontal airmass, falling into the 30s by the evening.
Wrap around moisture may still clip portions of NE OK and NW AR
Sunday evening, but models have generally trended drier during
this time. Any precipitation that occurs during this time would
likely be a rain/snow mix or snow. However, little if any
accumulation is expected. Temps continue to plummet overnight,
with low temperatures generally in the 20s (upper teens far north
OK/AR). This will be a hard to killing freeze for most of the
CWA, and any outdoor sensitive vegetation should be moved inside
or covered to prevent damage.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Monday morning will be miserably cold as a persistent northwest
breeze brings wind chills into the single digits (north) and teens
(south). In fact, a few locations in far NE OK and NW AR could
briefly see wind chill values near 0 degrees around sunrise.
Temperatures don't recover much during the day... likely remaining
in the 30s and 40s areawide. Widespread freezing temperatures are
likely again Monday night. Please be sure to bundle up as it will
very much feel like winter Monday and Tuesday morning.
The good news is temperatures will begin to warm back up quickly
through the week as upper level ridging expands across the Desert
SW and Southern Plains. By late week, highs in the 80s will be
common, perhaps eclipsing 90 degrees in a few areas Friday /
Saturday. Dry conditions are probable through the remainder of the
forecast period, with at least limited fire weather concerns
likely persisting.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Strong and gusty southerly winds ongoing will become northwesterly
and increase further as the advancing cold front sweeps rapidly
eastward. MVFR ceilings have spread into SE OK and will continue
an NNE advance prior to the frontal passage. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms remain possible primarily across NW AR and the
window for any aviation impact will be brief at any specific
terminal. Periods of low VFR ceilings may persist into the evening
with a low chance of a light wintry mix across NW AR. No winter
impacts expected. Winds will remain gusty through the overnight
hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 23 43 25 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 71 24 43 24 / 50 0 0 0
MLC 74 25 45 26 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 65 18 43 19 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 63 18 38 19 / 50 10 0 0
BYV 65 19 35 19 / 50 10 0 0
MKO 71 23 43 24 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 67 20 38 19 / 20 10 0 0
F10 72 24 46 25 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 75 28 46 27 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260315T1126.txt
