Home
636
FXUS64 KTSA 091124
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
- Storms ending this morning with mostly dry and warm days today
and Tuesday
- Slow moving wave increases rain chances Wednesday with
widespread showers and scattered storms Thursday and Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall possible. Flooding may become a
concern.
- Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is
forecast to decrease. Temps near mid June normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Scattered showers and storms continue across NE OK into far NW AR
with a decreasing coverage trend expected through mid morning.
Warm afternoon with lower dewpoints and the drier air will allow
overnight lows to fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
The primary storm track through Tuesday will remain well south of
the forecast area, however a signal for isolated showers and
storms Tuesday afternoon warrants a low mention. Otherwise warm
and dry conditions prevail.
Weak wave currently moving into the western CONUS will gradually
develop into a closed mid level low over TX by Wednesday and lift
slowly ENE across the local region through Saturday. Plume of deep
moisture will be drawn northward in advance of the wave with
precip chances beginning to increase Wednesday and fairly
widespread coverage forecast Thursday and Friday. Limited
instability and weak flow will reduce any severe threat, however
forecast soundings suggest efficient rainfall rates coupled with
likely repeated high coverage periods to produce locally heavy
rainfall amounts through Saturday. Precip amounts will continue to
be refined but flooding concerns may develop given the overall
pattern.
Daily precip chances remain in the forecast through next weekend
but an overall decreasing trend in coverage is expected once the
wave passes. Warmer temps return over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Remaining light showers in far northwest Arkansas should move east
of the TAF sites over the next hour. Mid and high level clouds
will then continue to scatter out this morning from west to east
across the CWA with mostly clear to passing high clouds this
evening/tonight. Winds through this afternoon are expected to vary
from westerly to northerly and become light/variable tonight as
winds begin to return out of the south. VFR conditions are
currently forecast through the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 86 62 88 66 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 88 63 90 66 / 20 0 20 0
MLC 86 63 87 65 / 10 0 20 0
BVO 85 56 87 63 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 84 58 85 63 / 20 0 10 0
BYV 83 56 85 62 / 30 0 10 0
MKO 84 62 87 65 / 10 0 10 0
MIO 83 56 85 65 / 0 0 10 0
F10 84 63 87 65 / 10 0 20 0
HHW 86 64 87 65 / 20 0 20 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250609T1124.txt
014
FXUS64 KTSA 090840
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
340 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
- Storms ending this morning with mostly dry and warm days today
and Tuesday
- Slow moving wave increases rain chances Wednesday with
widespread showers and scattered storms Thursday and Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall possible. Flooding may become a
concern.
- Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is
forecast to decrease. Temps near mid June normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Scattered showers and storms continue across NE OK into far NW AR
with a decreasing coverage trend expected through mid morning.
Warm afternoon with lower dewpoints and the drier air will allow
overnight lows to fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
The primary storm track through Tuesday will remain well south of
the forecast area, however a signal for isolated showers and
storms Tuesday afternoon warrants a low mention. Otherwise warm
and dry conditions prevail.
Weak wave currently moving into the western CONUS will gradually
develop into a closed mid level low over TX by Wednesday and lift
slowly ENE across the local region through Saturday. Plume of deep
moisture will be drawn northward in advance of the wave with
precip chances beginning to increase Wednesday and fairly
widespread coverage forecast Thursday and Friday. Limited
instability and weak flow will reduce any severe threat, however
forecast soundings suggest efficient rainfall rates coupled with
likely repeated high coverage periods to produce locally heavy
rainfall amounts through Saturday. Precip amounts will continue to
be refined but flooding concerns may develop given the overall
pattern.
Daily precip chances remain in the forecast through next weekend
but an overall decreasing trend in coverage is expected once the
wave passes. Warmer temps return over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Scattered showers and storms will continue overnight across
portions of the CWA with the greater potential over northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will continue with Prob30 group
for timing for northwest Arkansas terminals. Within the
convection, brief period of MVFR conditions, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall remain possible. Behind the exiting precip,
scattered to broken mid and high clouds Monday morning are
expected to scatter out and become mostly clear Monday evening.
Winds are forecast to be variable and or from west to northerly
through Monday afternoon. Monday evening/night, winds become
variable again as they try to return out of the south.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 86 62 88 66 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 88 63 90 66 / 20 0 20 0
MLC 86 63 87 65 / 10 0 20 0
BVO 85 56 87 63 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 84 58 85 63 / 20 0 10 0
BYV 83 56 85 62 / 20 0 10 0
MKO 84 62 87 65 / 10 0 10 0
MIO 83 56 85 65 / 0 0 10 0
F10 84 63 87 65 / 10 0 20 0
HHW 86 64 87 65 / 20 0 20 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250609T0840.txt
461
FXUS64 KTSA 090532
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
- Storm chances into the overnight hours with isolated severe
potential.
- Isolated flash flooding may develop tonight with several main
stem rivers remaining in flood stage.
- Brief dry period early-mid week with below average
temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances return by the
middle through latter part of the work week with heavy
rainfall and flooding possibly becoming an impact for late
week into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Clusters of severe storms are ongoing across south central OK and
will be moving into a very unstable environment with ample deep
layer shear in place near the Red River in SE OK. This supports
potential for higher-end damaging wind gusts over the next 2-3
hours. Svr watch til 4 AM, but the greatest threat should be
clear of the forecast area well before that. Also potential for
excessive rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will cause at
least some localized flooding.
Elsewhere, the airmass has largely stabilized, especially across
north of I-40. Some lingering elevated CAPE may yet support a few
thunderstorms as the frontal zone pushes south, but the severe
weather threat will remain minimal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Sunny or mostly sunny skies early this afternoon have resulted in
temperatures climbing into the upper-80s and lower-90s area-wide,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect temperatures to
increase a degree or two more before the day is done. Cloud cover
will increase from the north/northwest late this afternoon and
into this evening.
As of 2 PM, the cold front was observed entering
southern/southeastern KS, near Wichita area. As the front
continues to sag southward, storms are forecast to initiate along
it by 3-4 PM, moving/developing near the OK/KS border by 5-6 PM.
Visible satellite already shows increasing cumulus along the
frontal boundary in southern KS. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the primary concerns with any organized storm that
develops along the front. Perhaps some better organized elevated
storms may develop along the 850 mb front, behind the surface
front, near the OK/KS border by mid-evening as low-level shear
increases. Latest high resolution models show these strong to
severe elevated storms pushing southward across much of northeast
OK and northwest AR as the evening/night progresses. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with the
storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be likely, especially
underneath more intense thunderstorms, and may produce minor
flooding in areas.
Short-term models continue to indicate a more intense and more
organized complex of storms developing in the TX Panhandle/far
western OK early this evening. Upscale growth will quickly form as
the cluster/complex of storms forms into an MCS and tracks east-
southeastward across southwest/southern OK mid-late evening.
Latest model data have the line of storms pushing into portions of
southeast OK by/around midnight tonight. Although damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard with the MCS, large hail and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additionally, very heavy
rainfall is expected to fall with it, with intense rainfall rates
embedded in the line. Trends in the HRRR have shown the heaviest
rainfall falling in Pushmataha and Choctaw counties, where a
swath of generally 1-3 inches, isolated higher amounts, has been
consistent from run-to-run. With how progressive the line of
storms is expected to move and lighter rainfall amounts in this
area over the last several days, opted not to issue out a Flood
Watch. However, flooding and flash flooding will still be possible
with this system.
The cold front is forecast to push south of the Red River by the
end of the short-term period. Temperatures will cool into the
upper 50s/lower 60s by daybreak across northeast OK and northwest
AR. Meanwhile temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 60s for
southeast OK and west-central AR.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will be exiting and dissipating as the
long-term period begins. Much drier and calmer weather is
anticipated by Monday afternoon through the daytime Tuesday, with
temperatures at or just below seasonal average. Widespread shower
and thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast, possibly as
early as Wednesday as a slow-moving upper-level trough begins to
move over the Plains. Longer-range forecast models show the
trough anchoring over the Southern Plains through the rest of the
week and into early next weekend. Although there may be a
potential for severe thunderstorms on one or multiple days next
week associated with the trough, there is higher confidence that
moderate to heavy rainfall will occur each day. However, there is
still lots of uncertainty regarding track and evolution of the
trough, as well as a strengthening ridge building over the Desert
Southwest late in the week. Will know more details in the upcoming
days.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Scattered showers and storms will continue overnight across
portions of the CWA with the greater potential over northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will continue with Prob30 group
for timing for northwest Arkansas terminals. Within the
convection, brief period of MVFR conditions, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall remain possible. Behind the exiting precip,
scattered to broken mid and high clouds Monday morning are
expected to scatter out and become mostly clear Monday evening.
Winds are forecast to be variable and or from west to northerly
through Monday afternoon. Monday evening/night, winds become
variable again as they try to return out of the south.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 89 66 84 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 62 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 63 88 65 84 / 0 0 0 20
BVO 56 88 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 58 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 55 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 61 86 65 84 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 56 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
F10 62 86 65 83 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 64 86 65 84 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250609T0532.txt
557
FXUS64 KTSA 090226
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
926 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
- Storm chances increase from late afternoon through the
overnight hours. Isolated severe along cold front by early
evening with focus turning toward a severe storm complex
expected to impact portions of SE OK by late evening into
early morning hours Monday.
- Isolated flash flooding may develop tonight with several main
stem rivers remaining in flood stage.
- Brief dry period early-mid week with below average
temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances return by the
middle through latter part of the work week with heavy
rainfall and flooding possibly becoming an impact for late
week into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Clusters of severe storms are ongoing across south central OK and
will be moving into a very unstable environment with ample deep
layer shear in place near the Red River in SE OK. This supports
potential for higher-end damaging wind gusts over the next 2-3
hours. Svr watch til 4 AM, but the greatest threat should be
clear of the forecast area well before that. Also potential for
excessive rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will cause at
least some localized flooding.
Elsewhere, the airmass has largely stabilized, especially across
north of I-40. Some lingering elevated CAPE may yet support a few
thunderstorms as the frontal zone pushes south, but the severe
weather threat will remain minimal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Sunny or mostly sunny skies early this afternoon have resulted in
temperatures climbing into the upper-80s and lower-90s area-wide,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect temperatures to
increase a degree or two more before the day is done. Cloud cover
will increase from the north/northwest late this afternoon and
into this evening.
As of 2 PM, the cold front was observed entering
southern/southeastern KS, near Wichita area. As the front
continues to sag southward, storms are forecast to initiate along
it by 3-4 PM, moving/developing near the OK/KS border by 5-6 PM.
Visible satellite already shows increasing cumulus along the
frontal boundary in southern KS. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the primary concerns with any organized storm that
develops along the front. Perhaps some better organized elevated
storms may develop along the 850 mb front, behind the surface
front, near the OK/KS border by mid-evening as low-level shear
increases. Latest high resolution models show these strong to
severe elevated storms pushing southward across much of northeast
OK and northwest AR as the evening/night progresses. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with the
storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be likely, especially
underneath more intense thunderstorms, and may produce minor
flooding in areas.
Short-term models continue to indicate a more intense and more
organized complex of storms developing in the TX Panhandle/far
western OK early this evening. Upscale growth will quickly form as
the cluster/complex of storms forms into an MCS and tracks east-
southeastward across southwest/southern OK mid-late evening.
Latest model data have the line of storms pushing into portions of
southeast OK by/around midnight tonight. Although damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard with the MCS, large hail and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additionally, very heavy
rainfall is expected to fall with it, with intense rainfall rates
embedded in the line. Trends in the HRRR have shown the heaviest
rainfall falling in Pushmataha and Choctaw counties, where a
swath of generally 1-3 inches, isolated higher amounts, has been
consistent from run-to-run. With how progressive the line of
storms is expected to move and lighter rainfall amounts in this
area over the last several days, opted not to issue out a Flood
Watch. However, flooding and flash flooding will still be possible
with this system.
The cold front is forecast to push south of the Red River by the
end of the short-term period. Temperatures will cool into the
upper 50s/lower 60s by daybreak across northeast OK and northwest
AR. Meanwhile temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 60s for
southeast OK and west-central AR.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will be exiting and dissipating as the
long-term period begins. Much drier and calmer weather is
anticipated by Monday afternoon through the daytime Tuesday, with
temperatures at or just below seasonal average. Widespread shower
and thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast, possibly as
early as Wednesday as a slow-moving upper-level trough begins to
move over the Plains. Longer-range forecast models show the
trough anchoring over the Southern Plains through the rest of the
week and into early next weekend. Although there may be a
potential for severe thunderstorms on one or multiple days next
week associated with the trough, there is higher confidence that
moderate to heavy rainfall will occur each day. However, there is
still lots of uncertainty regarding track and evolution of the
trough, as well as a strengthening ridge building over the Desert
Southwest late in the week. Will know more details in the upcoming
days.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
A few showers and thunderstorms may impact northeast OK TAF sites
the next hour or two, then northwest AR. These storms will produce
strong winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are expected.
Another round of storms may impact KMLC and areas to the south
late this evening. These storms could be severe, with strong wind
the greatest threat. A few additional storms could also impact
areas to the north, with brief heavy rain and visibility
reductions.
Winds will shift to northerly behind a front across northeast OK
this evening, and everywhere else tonight. Skies will clear across
the area mid morning tomorrow with no additional storms expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 84 61 89 / 60 0 0 0
FSM 69 87 62 90 / 40 20 0 0
MLC 66 84 63 88 / 70 20 0 0
BVO 59 83 56 88 / 60 0 0 0
FYV 62 82 58 86 / 60 20 0 0
BYV 62 81 55 84 / 60 10 0 0
MKO 64 82 61 86 / 50 20 0 0
MIO 61 81 56 85 / 70 0 0 0
F10 64 83 62 86 / 50 10 0 0
HHW 67 84 64 86 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250609T0226.txt
181
FXUS64 KTSA 082307
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
- Storm chances increase from late afternoon through the
overnight hours. Isolated severe along cold front by early
evening with focus turning toward a severe storm complex
expected to impact portions of SE OK by late evening into
early morning hours Monday.
- Isolated flash flooding may develop tonight with several main
stem rivers remaining in flood stage.
- Brief dry period early-mid week with below average
temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances return by the
middle through latter part of the work week with heavy
rainfall and flooding possibly becoming an impact for late
week into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Sunny or mostly sunny skies early this afternoon have resulted in
temperatures climbing into the upper-80s and lower-90s area-wide,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect temperatures to
increase a degree or two more before the day is done. Cloud cover
will increase from the north/northwest late this afternoon and
into this evening.
As of 2 PM, the cold front was observed entering
southern/southeastern KS, near Wichita area. As the front
continues to sag southward, storms are forecast to initiate along
it by 3-4 PM, moving/developing near the OK/KS border by 5-6 PM.
Visible satellite already shows increasing cumulus along the
frontal boundary in southern KS. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the primary concerns with any organized storm that
develops along the front. Perhaps some better organized elevated
storms may develop along the 850 mb front, behind the surface
front, near the OK/KS border by mid-evening as low-level shear
increases. Latest high resolution models show these strong to
severe elevated storms pushing southward across much of northeast
OK and northwest AR as the evening/night progresses. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with the
storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be likely, especially
underneath more intense thunderstorms, and may produce minor
flooding in areas.
Short-term models continue to indicate a more intense and more
organized complex of storms developing in the TX Panhandle/far
western OK early this evening. Upscale growth will quickly form as
the cluster/complex of storms forms into an MCS and tracks east-
southeastward across southwest/southern OK mid-late evening.
Latest model data have the line of storms pushing into portions of
southeast OK by/around midnight tonight. Although damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard with the MCS, large hail and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additionally, very heavy
rainfall is expected to fall with it, with intense rainfall rates
embedded in the line. Trends in the HRRR have shown the heaviest
rainfall falling in Pushmataha and Choctaw counties, where a
swath of generally 1-3 inches, isolated higher amounts, has been
consistent from run-to-run. With how progressive the line of
storms is expected to move and lighter rainfall amounts in this
area over the last several days, opted not to issue out a Flood
Watch. However, flooding and flash flooding will still be possible
with this system.
The cold front is forecast to push south of the Red River by the
end of the short-term period. Temperatures will cool into the
upper 50s/lower 60s by daybreak across northeast OK and northwest
AR. Meanwhile temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 60s for
southeast OK and west-central AR.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will be exiting and dissipating as the
long-term period begins. Much drier and calmer weather is
anticipated by Monday afternoon through the daytime Tuesday, with
temperatures at or just below seasonal average. Widespread shower
and thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast, possibly as
early as Wednesday as a slow-moving upper-level trough begins to
move over the Plains. Longer-range forecast models show the
trough anchoring over the Southern Plains through the rest of the
week and into early next weekend. Although there may be a
potential for severe thunderstorms on one or multiple days next
week associated with the trough, there is higher confidence that
moderate to heavy rainfall will occur each day. However, there is
still lots of uncertainty regarding track and evolution of the
trough, as well as a strengthening ridge building over the Desert
Southwest late in the week. Will know more details in the upcoming
days.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
A few showers and thunderstorms may impact northeast OK TAF sites
the next hour or two, then northwest AR. These storms will produce
strong winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are expected.
Another round of storms may impact KMLC and areas to the south
late this evening. These storms could be severe, with strong wind
the greatest threat. A few additional storms could also impact
areas to the north, with brief heavy rain and visibility
reductions.
Winds will shift to northerly behind a front across northeast OK
this evening, and everywhere else tonight. Skies will clear across
the area mid morning tomorrow with no additional storms expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 84 61 89 / 60 0 0 0
FSM 69 87 62 90 / 40 20 0 0
MLC 66 84 63 88 / 70 20 0 0
BVO 59 83 56 88 / 60 0 0 0
FYV 62 82 58 86 / 50 20 0 0
BYV 62 81 55 84 / 50 10 0 0
MKO 64 82 61 86 / 50 20 0 0
MIO 61 81 56 85 / 70 0 0 0
F10 64 83 62 86 / 50 10 0 0
HHW 67 84 64 86 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250608T2307.txt
115
FXUS64 KTSA 081930
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
- Storm chances increase from late afternoon through the
overnight hours. Isolated severe along cold front by early
evening with focus turning toward a severe storm complex
expected to impact portions of SE OK by late evening into
early morning hours Monday.
- Isolated flash flooding may develop tonight with several main
stem rivers remaining in flood stage.
- Brief dry period early-mid week with below average
temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances return by the
middle through latter part of the work week with heavy
rainfall and flooding possibly becoming an impact for late
week into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Sunny or mostly sunny skies early this afternoon have resulted in
temperatures climbing into the upper-80s and lower-90s area-wide,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect temperatures to
increase a degree or two more before the day is done. Cloud cover
will increase from the north/northwest late this afternoon and
into this evening.
As of 2 PM, the cold front was observed entering
southern/southeastern KS, near Wichita area. As the front
continues to sag southward, storms are forecast to initiate along
it by 3-4 PM, moving/developing near the OK/KS border by 5-6 PM.
Visible satellite already shows increasing cumulus along the
frontal boundary in southern KS. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the primary concerns with any organized storm that
develops along the front. Perhaps some better organized elevated
storms may develop along the 850 mb front, behind the surface
front, near the OK/KS border by mid-evening as low-level shear
increases. Latest high resolution models show these strong to
severe elevated storms pushing southward across much of northeast
OK and northwest AR as the evening/night progresses. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with the
storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be likely, especially
underneath more intense thunderstorms, and may produce minor
flooding in areas.
Short-term models continue to indicate a more intense and more
organized complex of storms developing in the TX Panhandle/far
western OK early this evening. Upscale growth will quickly form as
the cluster/complex of storms forms into an MCS and tracks east-
southeastward across southwest/southern OK mid-late evening.
Latest model data have the line of storms pushing into portions of
southeast OK by/around midnight tonight. Although damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard with the MCS, large hail and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additionally, very heavy
rainfall is expected to fall with it, with intense rainfall rates
embedded in the line. Trends in the HRRR have shown the heaviest
rainfall falling in Pushmataha and Choctaw counties, where a
swath of generally 1-3 inches, isolated higher amounts, has been
consistent from run-to-run. With how progressive the line of
storms is expected to move and lighter rainfall amounts in this
area over the last several days, opted not to issue out a Flood
Watch. However, flooding and flash flooding will still be possible
with this system.
The cold front is forecast to push south of the Red River by the
end of the short-term period. Temperatures will cool into the
upper 50s/lower 60s by daybreak across northeast OK and northwest
AR. Meanwhile temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 60s for
southeast OK and west-central AR.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will be exiting and dissipating as the
long-term period begins. Much drier and calmer weather is
anticipated by Monday afternoon through the daytime Tuesday, with
temperatures at or just below seasonal average. Widespread shower
and thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast, possibly as
early as Wednesday as a slow-moving upper-level trough begins to
move over the Plains. Longer-range forecast models show the
trough anchoring over the Southern Plains through the rest of the
week and into early next weekend. Although there may be a
potential for severe thunderstorms on one or multiple days next
week associated with the trough, there is higher confidence that
moderate to heavy rainfall will occur each day. However, there is
still lots of uncertainty regarding track and evolution of the
trough, as well as a strengthening ridge building over the Desert
Southwest late in the week. Will know more details in the upcoming
days.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Pilots can expect VFR conditions thru the period outside of storm
activity. Storm chances will be highest across far NE OK late this
afternoon and into the early evening, and across SE OK from mid-
evening to just after midnight. Short-term models also show some
chance for showers and weaker storms overnight with the front
across NE OK and NW AR. Storm chances will clear out of most TAF
sites by 12Z and at KFSM by 15Z.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 84 61 89 / 60 0 0 0
FSM 69 87 62 90 / 40 20 0 0
MLC 66 84 63 88 / 70 20 0 0
BVO 59 83 56 88 / 60 0 0 0
FYV 62 82 58 86 / 50 20 0 0
BYV 62 81 55 84 / 50 10 0 0
MKO 64 82 61 86 / 50 20 0 0
MIO 61 81 56 85 / 70 0 0 0
F10 64 83 62 86 / 50 10 0 0
HHW 67 84 64 86 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250608T1930.txt
625
FXUS64 KTSA 081734
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
- Storm chances increase from late afternoon through the
overnight hours. Isolated severe along cold front by early
evening with focus turning toward a severe storm complex
expected to impact portions of SE OK by late evening into
early morning hours Monday.
- Isolated flash flooding may develop with several main stem
rivers remaining in flood.
- Brief dry period early-mid week with below average
temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances return by the
middle through later part of the work week with heavy rainfall
and flooding possibly becoming an impact for late week into
the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
The bulk of the day is expected to be quiet under mainly sunny
skies. At 10 AM, an approaching cold front was draped from near St
Joseph MO to Salina KS to Garden City KS. The 12Z HRRR indicated
storms should begin to develop along the front by around 5 PM near
the KS border with some increase in coverage eastward toward the
MO border across far NE OK thru early evening. There will be some
severe threat with these storms as the atmosphere will be
unstable, but this threat will be limited by marginal deep layer
bulk shear. Focus will then turn to the storms west of the area
during the evening.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Isolated storms ongoing across extreme SE OK and are expected to
drift south of the forecast by sunrise. Patchy morning fog will
erode with mostly sunny skies allowing for a quick warm up with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and humid conditions. Conditions
will become highly unstable across a broad region of the Southern
Plains by mid afternoon. The local area will focus on the cold
front moving into southern KS by mid afternoon and expectations
are isolated to scattered storms will develop near the boundary
and spread into NE OK by mid to late afternoon. Instability and
shear profiles will support severe weather with these storms.
Storm coverage will also be increasing across the TX Panhandle and
western OK during this same time frame with a steady upscale
growth into a severe MCS by mid evening across southern OK into N
TX. Short term guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with
the resultant MCS tracking ESE and likely impacting a portions of
SE OK during the late evening into early morning hours on Monday.
Damaging winds will accompany the most intense portion of the line
of storms and severe weather watches and warnings should be
anticipated for SE OK after sunset. The storm complex will move
east of the region overnight with storm chance decreasing from
northwest to southeast. Overall rainfall footprint would suggest
a more isolated flooding threat overnight compared to recent
events.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Storms will be exiting the region early Monday with dry weather
then expected through Tuesday and temperatures near seasonal
normals. A slow moving upper low remains forecast to develop by
mid week and tracking from west TX into E OK from Wednesday to
Saturday. A fetch of deep moisture along with the influence of the
upper wave will lead to increasing rain chances by mid week with
widespread rains likely for late week and possibly into the
weekend. Flow aloft will be weaker by this time and should limit
the severe weather potential, however heavy rains and flooding are
likely to return as weather impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Pilots can expect VFR conditions thru the period outside of storm
activity. Storm chances will be highest across far NE OK late this
afternoon and into the early evening, and across SE OK from mid-
evening to just after midnight. Short-term models also show some
chance for showers and weaker storms overnight with the front
across NE OK and NW AR. Storm chances will clear out of most TAF
sites by 12Z and at KFSM by 15Z.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 85 63 89 / 60 0 0 0
FSM 68 87 64 90 / 50 10 0 0
MLC 66 84 63 88 / 80 20 0 0
BVO 59 83 57 88 / 50 0 0 0
FYV 62 83 59 86 / 50 10 0 0
BYV 62 81 58 84 / 50 10 0 0
MKO 64 83 63 86 / 50 10 0 0
MIO 61 81 56 85 / 60 0 0 0
F10 64 83 63 87 / 60 10 0 0
HHW 67 83 65 86 / 80 30 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250608T1734.txt
296
FXUS64 KTSA 081528
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1028 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
- Storm chances increase from late afternoon through the
overnight hours. Isolated severe along cold front by early
evening with focus turning toward a severe storm complex
expected to impact portions of SE OK by late evening into
early morning hours Monday.
- Isolated flash flooding may develop with several main stem
rivers remaining in flood.
- Brief dry period early-mid week with below average
temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances return by the
middle through later part of the work week with heavy rainfall
and flooding possibly becoming an impact for late week into
the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
The bulk of the day is expected to be quiet under mainly sunny
skies. At 10 AM, an approaching cold front was draped from near St
Joseph MO to Salina KS to Garden City KS. The 12Z HRRR indicated
storms should begin to develop along the front by around 5 PM near
the KS border with some increase in coverage eastward toward the
MO border across far NE OK thru early evening. There will be some
severe threat with these storms as the atmosphere will be
unstable, but this threat will be limited by marginal deep layer
bulk shear. Focus will then turn to the storms west of the area
during the evening.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Isolated storms ongoing across extreme SE OK and are expected to
drift south of the forecast by sunrise. Patchy morning fog will
erode with mostly sunny skies allowing for a quick warm up with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and humid conditions. Conditions
will become highly unstable across a broad region of the Southern
Plains by mid afternoon. The local area will focus on the cold
front moving into southern KS by mid afternoon and expectations
are isolated to scattered storms will develop near the boundary
and spread into NE OK by mid to late afternoon. Instability and
shear profiles will support severe weather with these storms.
Storm coverage will also be increasing across the TX Panhandle and
western OK during this same time frame with a steady upscale
growth into a severe MCS by mid evening across southern OK into N
TX. Short term guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with
the resultant MCS tracking ESE and likely impacting a portions of
SE OK during the late evening into early morning hours on Monday.
Damaging winds will accompany the most intense portion of the line
of storms and severe weather watches and warnings should be
anticipated for SE OK after sunset. The storm complex will move
east of the region overnight with storm chance decreasing from
northwest to southeast. Overall rainfall footprint would suggest
a more isolated flooding threat overnight compared to recent
events.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Storms will be exiting the region early Monday with dry weather
then expected through Tuesday and temperatures near seasonal
normals. A slow moving upper low remains forecast to develop by
mid week and tracking from west TX into E OK from Wednesday to
Saturday. A fetch of deep moisture along with the influence of the
upper wave will lead to increasing rain chances by mid week with
widespread rains likely for late week and possibly into the
weekend. Flow aloft will be weaker by this time and should limit
the severe weather potential, however heavy rains and flooding are
likely to return as weather impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Few to scattered high clouds and south/southwesterly winds are
expected across the CWA into this afternoon. Mid/high clouds begin
to increase mid afternoon into this evening ahead of a cold front
moving into the region from the north and an expected storm
complex approaching from the west. Shower/storm chances return
starting late afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours
with the front and storm complex moving over the CWA. Will
continue with Prob30 groups for timing of greater storm
potentials. Within the convection, MVFR conditions, gusty winds
and heavy rainfall are anticipated. Behind the showers/storms late
tonight, scattered to broken mid and high clouds along with west
to northerly winds are forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 90 64 85 63 / 30 60 0 0
FSM 92 68 87 64 / 0 50 10 0
MLC 91 66 84 63 / 10 80 20 0
BVO 89 59 83 57 / 40 50 0 0
FYV 89 62 83 59 / 10 50 10 0
BYV 88 62 81 58 / 10 50 10 0
MKO 89 64 83 63 / 10 50 10 0
MIO 88 61 81 56 / 40 60 0 0
F10 90 64 83 63 / 10 60 10 0
HHW 90 67 83 65 / 10 80 30 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20250608T1528.txt
