390 
FXUS64 KTSA 300442
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1012 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
 
 - Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night into
   Saturday morning. 

 - Steady warm-up expected Sunday through Tuesday.

 - Rain chances increase with approaching upper-level system
   Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Surface low continues to move east across central AR this evening
with north winds bringing initial push of colder air into the 
local forecast area with north winds in the 10-20 mph range. Wind
eventually will relax some, but temperatures will eventually 
reach teens in most areas, save for a few lower 20s near the Red 
River. Single digit wind chills also expected by Friday morning 
in areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders. 

Temperatures Friday will rebound somewhat during the day before a
more significant push of cold air arrives across northern areas 
Friday afternoon with an uptick in wind speeds through Friday 
night. Just enough moisture and lift may be present for a band of
flurries to accompany the cold push, potentially even a few light
snow showers during the afternoon and evening. At this point any 
accumulation would be just a dusting at best and shouldn't cause 
any impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

As sfc temps eventually fall into single digits, possibly close 
to zero near the OK/KS border, wind chills of -10F to zero will 
become widespread, with some data suggesting a bit stronger winds
speeds resulting in values approaching warning criteria (-15F) 
northwest of I-44 for a short time early Saturday morning. Surface
high will quickly become centered over our area by afternoon with
winds decreasing, however it will be a cold afternoon as temps 
struggle to warm into the mid-upper 20s in most places.

The cold snap will be a brief one as the high moves southeast and
winds switch back to southerly as early as Saturday night, with
temps warming right back above freezing Sunday afternoon.
Additional warming takes place Monday with most warming into the
50s. Low level moisture begins to return early next week in
advance of an upper wave diving south through the Rockies bringing
a Chance of rain for Tuesday. Expectation right now is for precip
to move out before post-frontal airmass cools sufficiently for 
any winter weather with this system. Dry and near to above normal 
temperatues are presently forecast for late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Guidance this evening has backed off on the potential for morning
MVFR cigs in far NW AR. Will carry lower end VFR cigs at most of
the sites for the bulk of this forecast. An Arctic front arrives
tomorrow evening, and will be reflected in the TAFs with gusty
north winds and an MVFR cig as indicated in the latest guidance.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   16  32   7  24 /   0  10   0   0 
FSM   22  39  11  27 /  10   0   0   0 
MLC   19  38   9  28 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   12  29   1  23 /   0  20   0   0 
FYV   16  33   5  25 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   17  30   6  24 /  10   0   0   0 
MKO   17  34   8  25 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   14  28   4  22 /   0  10   0   0 
F10   17  36   7  27 /   0   0  10   0 
HHW   23  42  13  30 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260130T0442.txt



036 
FXUS64 KTSA 300342
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
942 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 942 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
 
 - Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night into
   Saturday morning, with minimum wind chill values dropping 
   below zero; Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 12 AM to 12 PM
   on Saturday.

 - Steady warm-up expected Sunday through Tuesday.

 - Rain chances increase with approaching upper-level system
   Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Early evening surface analysis places an area of low pressure over
southwest AR, with a large area of high pressure over the north
central CONUS. A tight gradient currently exists in between over
eastern OK and far northwest AR where northerly winds are gusting.
Winds will subside toward morning as the low moves away and the
gradient relaxes. Lift ahead of a PV max aloft over
western/central OK could squeeze out some rain drops or snow
flakes across portions of western AR, but chances are pretty low
for anything measurable. Colder air filtering into the region in
the wake of the low pressure and front will yield teens by morning
across much of eastern OK and northwest AR, and some wind chills
in the single digits by Friday morning.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Latest surface obs/analysis shows an area of low pressure in the 
vicinity of Creek County late this morning and a cold front draped
nearly along I-40. The low will continue advancing east through 
the afternoon and will further push the frontal boundary across 
the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. North to northwest 
winds are expected to become breezy, with gusts around 25 mph into
early this evening. A low chance (10-15%) of a few sprinkles (and
later possibly a few flurries) may develop along and just behind 
the frontal boundary across far eastern OK and western AR this 
afternoon and evening. No impacts or accumulations expected. 

Much colder temperatures are anticipated tonight be behind the 
cold front. Clouds will begin to break apart and scatter-out from 
northwest to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. 
Overnight lows will fall into the mid-teens to low 20s tonight. 
Winds will gradually decrease through the overnight hours, but 
will be elevated enough to maintain wind chills in the teens all 
evening and all night. 

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Friday will start off very chilly, with wind chills generally in 
the teens through much of the morning. Some warming may occur late
in the morning and early afternoon, but persistent northerly 
winds will keep wind chill values in the 20s or low 30s during the
daytime. A more robust surge of cold air will push into eastern 
OK and western AR by mid-late afternoon and through the evening 
Friday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the surge, 
with occasional gusts 25-30 mph, locally stronger in the higher 
terrain areas, through Friday evening. A brief period of flurries
remains possible as the Arctic air arrives. No impacts or 
accumulations expected. Exceptionally cold temperatures and wind 
chill temperatures will develop Friday night into Saturday 
morning, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits for 
most locations and wind chill values ranging from -10 to 0 F. A 
Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast from
midnight Saturday through noon Saturday. Winds begin to subside 
by early to mid morning Saturday as surface ridging begins to 
settle into the area. Temperatures will stay very cold through the
afternoon Saturday, with afternoon highs only reaching the low to
mid 20s (near 30 F along the Red River). 

Temperatures will start to modify Saturday night into Sunday as
surface ridging scoots eastward and southerly winds return.
Temperatures will steadily warm up to seasonal average by Monday
night into Tuesday. Next best chance for widespread precipitation
will come ahead of an approaching shortwave trough that will dig
southward from the Upper Midwest region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures will be well above freezing Tuesday, so precipitation
should fall as liquid rain. However, another cold front will be
moving through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and there could
be a rain/snow mix for a few spots late Tuesday night if
precipitation is able to stick around. Better details will be
ironed out over the next few days. 

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Guidance this evening has backed off on the potential for morning
MVFR cigs in far NW AR. Will carry lower end VFR cigs at most of
the sites for the bulk of this forecast. An Arctic front arrives
tomorrow evening, and will be reflected in the TAFs with gusty
north winds and an MVFR cig as indicated in the latest guidance.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   16  32   7  24 /   0  10   0   0 
FSM   22  39  11  27 /  10   0   0   0 
MLC   19  38   9  28 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   12  29   1  23 /   0  20   0   0 
FYV   16  33   5  25 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   17  30   6  24 /  10   0   0   0 
MKO   17  34   8  25 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   14  28   4  22 /   0  10   0   0 
F10   17  36   7  27 /   0   0  10   0 
HHW   23  42  13  30 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260130T0342.txt



521 
FXUS64 KTSA 300143
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
743 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 743 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
 
 - Low chance of measurable rain or snow across portions of
   western Arkansas this evening. 

 - Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night
   into Saturday morning, with minimum wind chill values dropping
   below zero; Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 12 AM to 12 
   PM on Saturday.

 - Steady warm-up expected Sunday through Tuesday.

 - Rain chances increase with approaching upper-level system
   Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Early evening surface analysis places an area of low pressure over
southwest AR, with a large area of high pressure over the north
central CONUS. A tight gradient currently exists in between over
eastern OK and far northwest AR where northerly winds are gusting.
Winds will subside toward morning as the low moves away and the
gradient relaxes. Lift ahead of a PV max aloft over
western/central OK could squeeze out some rain drops or snow
flakes across portions of western AR, but chances are pretty low
for anything measurable. Colder air filtering into the region in
the wake of the low pressure and front will yield teens by morning
across much of eastern OK and northwest AR, and some wind chills
in the single digits by Friday morning.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Latest surface obs/analysis shows an area of low pressure in the 
vicinity of Creek County late this morning and a cold front draped
nearly along I-40. The low will continue advancing east through 
the afternoon and will further push the frontal boundary across 
the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. North to northwest 
winds are expected to become breezy, with gusts around 25 mph into
early this evening. A low chance (10-15%) of a few sprinkles (and
later possibly a few flurries) may develop along and just behind 
the frontal boundary across far eastern OK and western AR this 
afternoon and evening. No impacts or accumulations expected. 

Much colder temperatures are anticipated tonight be behind the 
cold front. Clouds will begin to break apart and scatter-out from 
northwest to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. 
Overnight lows will fall into the mid-teens to low 20s tonight. 
Winds will gradually decrease through the overnight hours, but 
will be elevated enough to maintain wind chills in the teens all 
evening and all night. 

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Friday will start off very chilly, with wind chills generally in 
the teens through much of the morning. Some warming may occur late
in the morning and early afternoon, but persistent northerly 
winds will keep wind chill values in the 20s or low 30s during the
daytime. A more robust surge of cold air will push into eastern 
OK and western AR by mid-late afternoon and through the evening 
Friday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the surge, 
with occasional gusts 25-30 mph, locally stronger in the higher 
terrain areas, through Friday evening. A brief period of flurries
remains possible as the Arctic air arrives. No impacts or 
accumulations expected. Exceptionally cold temperatures and wind 
chill temperatures will develop Friday night into Saturday 
morning, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits for 
most locations and wind chill values ranging from -10 to 0 F. A 
Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast from
midnight Saturday through noon Saturday. Winds begin to subside 
by early to mid morning Saturday as surface ridging begins to 
settle into the area. Temperatures will stay very cold through the
afternoon Saturday, with afternoon highs only reaching the low to
mid 20s (near 30 F along the Red River). 

Temperatures will start to modify Saturday night into Sunday as
surface ridging scoots eastward and southerly winds return.
Temperatures will steadily warm up to seasonal average by Monday
night into Tuesday. Next best chance for widespread precipitation
will come ahead of an approaching shortwave trough that will dig
southward from the Upper Midwest region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures will be well above freezing Tuesday, so precipitation
should fall as liquid rain. However, another cold front will be
moving through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and there could
be a rain/snow mix for a few spots late Tuesday night if
precipitation is able to stick around. Better details will be
ironed out over the next few days. 

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most sites through the
forecast period. There were indications in the data this afternoon
that a period of MVFR cigs could impact the far NW AR sites Friday
morning. Chances for measurable precipitation are too low to be
worth mentioning in the TAFs at this time.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   16  32   5  23 /   0  10  10   0 
FSM   22  39  10  28 /  10  10  10   0 
MLC   19  37   8  27 /   0  10  10   0 
BVO   12  30   2  22 /   0  10  10   0 
FYV   16  33   5  24 /   0  10  10   0 
BYV   17  30   5  23 /  10  10  10   0 
MKO   17  34   7  25 /   0  10  10   0 
MIO   14  29   4  21 /   0  10  10   0 
F10   17  35   7  25 /   0  10  10   0 
HHW   23  43  12  30 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...67 
LONG TERM....67 
AVIATION...30


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260130T0143.txt



529 
FXUS64 KTSA 300021
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 621 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
 
 - Low chance of a few rain or snow showers across portions of northeast
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening. 

 - Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night
   into Saturday morning, with minimum wind chill values dropping
   below zero; Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 12 AM to 12 
   PM on Saturday.

 - Steady warm-up expected Sunday through Tuesday.

 - Rain chances increase with approaching upper-level system
   Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Latest surface obs/analysis shows an area of low pressure in the 
vicinity of Creek County late this morning and a cold front draped
nearly along I-40. The low will continue advancing east through 
the afternoon and will further push the frontal boundary across 
the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. North to northwest 
winds are expected to become breezy, with gusts around 25 mph into
early this evening. A low chance (10-15%) of a few sprinkles (and
later possibly a few flurries) may develop along and just behind 
the frontal boundary across far eastern OK and western AR this 
afternoon and evening. No impacts or accumulations expected. 

Much colder temperatures are anticipated tonight be behind the 
cold front. Clouds will begin to break apart and scatter-out from 
northwest to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. 
Overnight lows will fall into the mid-teens to low 20s tonight. 
Winds will gradually decrease through the overnight hours, but 
will be elevated enough to maintain wind chills in the teens all 
evening and all night. 

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Friday will start off very chilly, with wind chills generally in 
the teens through much of the morning. Some warming may occur late
in the morning and early afternoon, but persistent northerly 
winds will keep wind chill values in the 20s or low 30s during the
daytime. A more robust surge of cold air will push into eastern 
OK and western AR by mid-late afternoon and through the evening 
Friday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the surge, 
with occasional gusts 25-30 mph, locally stronger in the higher 
terrain areas, through Friday evening. A brief period of flurries
remains possible as the Arctic air arrives. No impacts or 
accumulations expected. Exceptionally cold temperatures and wind 
chill temperatures will develop Friday night into Saturday 
morning, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits for 
most locations and wind chill values ranging from -10 to 0 F. A 
Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast from
midnight Saturday through noon Saturday. Winds begin to subside 
by early to mid morning Saturday as surface ridging begins to 
settle into the area. Temperatures will stay very cold through the
afternoon Saturday, with afternoon highs only reaching the low to
mid 20s (near 30 F along the Red River). 

Temperatures will start to modify Saturday night into Sunday as
surface ridging scoots eastward and southerly winds return.
Temperatures will steadily warm up to seasonal average by Monday
night into Tuesday. Next best chance for widespread precipitation
will come ahead of an approaching shortwave trough that will dig
southward from the Upper Midwest region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures will be well above freezing Tuesday, so precipitation
should fall as liquid rain. However, another cold front will be
moving through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and there could
be a rain/snow mix for a few spots late Tuesday night if
precipitation is able to stick around. Better details will be
ironed out over the next few days. 

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most sites through the
forecast period. There were indications in the data this afternoon
that a period of MVFR cigs could impact the far NW AR sites Friday
morning. Chances for measurable precipitation are too low to be
worth mentioning in the TAFs at this time.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   16  32   5  23 /   0  10  10   0 
FSM   22  39  10  28 /  20  10  10   0 
MLC   19  37   8  27 /   0  10  10   0 
BVO   12  30   2  22 /   0  10  10   0 
FYV   16  33   5  24 /  10  10  10   0 
BYV   17  30   5  23 /  10  10  10   0 
MKO   17  34   7  25 /   0  10  10   0 
MIO   14  29   4  21 /  10  10  10   0 
F10   17  35   7  25 /   0  10  10   0 
HHW   24  43  12  30 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260130T0021.txt



637 
FXUS64 KTSA 291755
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
 
 - Low chance of a few rain or snow showers across portions of northeast
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. 

 - Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night
   into Saturday morning, with minimum wind chill values dropping
   below zero; Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 12 AM to 12 
   PM on Saturday.

 - Steady warm-up expected Sunday through Tuesday.

 - Rain chances increase with approaching upper-level system
   Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Latest surface obs/analysis shows an area of low pressure in the 
vicinity of Creek County late this morning and a cold front draped
nearly along I-40. The low will continue advancing east through 
the afternoon and will further push the frontal boundary across 
the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. North to northwest 
winds are expected to become breezy, with gusts around 25 mph into
early this evening. A low chance (10-15%) of a few sprinkles (and
later possibly a few flurries) may develop along and just behind 
the frontal boundary across far eastern OK and western AR this 
afternoon and evening. No impacts or accumulations expected. 

Much colder temperatures are anticipated tonight be behind the 
cold front. Clouds will begin to break apart and scatter-out from 
northwest to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. 
Overnight lows will fall into the mid-teens to low 20s tonight. 
Winds will gradually decrease through the overnight hours, but 
will be elevated enough to maintain wind chills in the teens all 
evening and all night. 

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Friday will start off very chilly, with wind chills generally in 
the teens through much of the morning. Some warming may occur late
in the morning and early afternoon, but persistent northerly 
winds will keep wind chill values in the 20s or low 30s during the
daytime. A more robust surge of cold air will push into eastern 
OK and western AR by mid-late afternoon and through the evening 
Friday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the surge, 
with occasional gusts 25-30 mph, locally stronger in the higher 
terrain areas, through Friday evening. A brief period of flurries
remains possible as the Arctic air arrives. No impacts or 
accumulations expected. Exceptionally cold temperatures and wind 
chill temperatures will develop Friday night into Saturday 
morning, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits for 
most locations and wind chill values ranging from -10 to 0 F. A 
Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast from
midnight Saturday through noon Saturday. Winds begin to subside 
by early to mid morning Saturday as surface ridging begins to 
settle into the area. Temperatures will stay very cold through the
afternoon Saturday, with afternoon highs only reaching the low to
mid 20s (near 30 F along the Red River). 

Temperatures will start to modify Saturday night into Sunday as
surface ridging scoots eastward and southerly winds return.
Temperatures will steadily warm up to seasonal average by Monday
night into Tuesday. Next best chance for widespread precipitation
will come ahead of an approaching shortwave trough that will dig
southward from the Upper Midwest region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures will be well above freezing Tuesday, so precipitation
should fall as liquid rain. However, another cold front will be
moving through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening and there could
be a rain/snow mix for a few spots late Tuesday night if
precipitation is able to stick around. Better details will be
ironed out over the next few days. 

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A shift to northerly winds will occur over the next few hours,
with all terminals seeing northerly flow by late afternoon. Areas
of low clouds and possibly brief ceilings in the 3-4 kft layer 
may occur this afternoon and evening in northwest AR. A few light 
showers or flurries may occur as well, but no accumulation is 
expected. Winds will lighten up overnight with ceilings lifting 
in OK, but likely maintaining or even lowering a bit in NW AR 
where MVFR criteria may be met. Arkansas ceilings will then break 
up Friday mid morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   16  32   5  23 /   0  10  10   0 
FSM   22  39  10  28 /  20  10  10   0 
MLC   19  37   8  27 /   0  10  10   0 
BVO   12  30   2  22 /   0  10  10   0 
FYV   16  33   5  24 /  10  10  10   0 
BYV   17  30   5  23 /  10  10  10   0 
MKO   17  34   7  25 /   0  10  10   0 
MIO   14  29   4  21 /  10  10  10   0 
F10   17  35   7  25 /   0  10  10   0 
HHW   24  43  12  30 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260129T1755.txt



189 
FXUS64 KTSA 291704
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1104 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

 - Patchy freezing fog may impact portions of eastern Oklahoma and
   wester Arkansas late tonight and into Thursday morning.
 
 - Low chance of a few rain or snow showers across northeast 
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. 

 - Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night
   into Saturday morning behind a strong cold front, with minimum
   wind chill values dropping below zero.
 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A weak circulation will pass just south of the Tulsa area this
morning, dissipating near the OK-AR border this afternoon. Cool
northerly flow to the north of this will keep temperatures a bit
lower, with warming southerly flow to the south. After the
circulation passes, low clouds will increase along with somewhat
breezier northerly flow. Otherwise, the going forecast is mostly
in good shape. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Mid level shortwave crossing the Rockies tonight will swing
through the central/southern plains Thursday. In addition to
increasing higher clouds overnight ahead of this system, low 
level winds will also respond to some degree overnight. These two 
factors will reduce freezing fog potential compared to last couple
of nights, however valley locations of southeast OK and western 
AR will be the last to feel impact from clouds/wind and thus will 
still have some potential for localized freezing fog, and may 
induce a few additional slick spots and reduced visibility through
mid Thursday morning.

Moisture profiles with the approaching wave are not impressive,
but some patchy light rain may be forced as the wave slides just 
to our north and induces sfc low pressure that tracks across
southern OK. Temp profiles may cool enough on back side of system
for a mix or change to light snow, however this will be of little
or no impact. Winds on back side will switch around to the north 
later this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Initial surge of colder air arrives tonight into Friday morning  
as the wave departs to the east. Highs Friday will likely remain
below freezing across a good portion of northeast OK and northwest
AR. More robust surge of cold air arrives late Friday afternoon 
and Friday evening with an increase in north winds as temps fall 
into the single digits and teens by Saturday morning. Cold weather
highlights will be needed during this period as wind chills fall 
below zero in most areas. A brief period of flurries is possible 
as the Arctic air arrives. Winds will die down Saturday afternoon 
as sfc high builds in, but highs will struggle to reach mid 20s in
much of the area. 

Sfc high will move southeast with return flow quickly established
Saturday night and Sunday, making the bitter cold snap short-
lived. Moderation in temperatures back to near normal occurs
early next week ahead of another approaching system, which brings
next chance of precipitation mid-week. At this point it looks 
more like a rain event with some low winter weather potential
possible on the back side, but details are not yet clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A shift to northerly winds will occur over the next few hours,
with all terminals seeing northerly flow by late afternoon. Areas
of low clouds and possibly brief ceilings in the 3-4 kft layer 
may occur this afternoon and evening in northwest AR. A few light 
showers or flurries may occur as well, but no accumulation is 
expected. Winds will lighten up overnight with ceilings lifting 
in OK, but likely maintaining or even lowering a bit in NW AR 
where MVFR criteria may be met. Arkansas ceilings will then break 
up Friday mid morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   16  32   5  23 /   0  10  10   0 
FSM   22  39  10  28 /  20  10  10   0 
MLC   19  37   8  27 /   0  10  10   0 
BVO   12  30   2  22 /   0  10  10   0 
FYV   16  33   5  24 /  10  10  10   0 
BYV   17  30   5  23 /  10  10  10   0 
MKO   17  34   7  25 /   0  10  10   0 
MIO   14  29   4  21 /  10  10  10   0 
F10   17  35   7  25 /   0  10  10   0 
HHW   24  43  12  30 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST 
     Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260129T1704.txt



407 
FXUS64 KTSA 291420
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
820 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 818 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

 - Patchy freezing fog may impact portions of eastern Oklahoma and
   wester Arkansas late tonight and into Thursday morning.
 
 - Low chance of a few rain or snow showers across northeast 
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. 

 - Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night
   into Saturday morning behind a strong cold front, with minimum
   wind chill values dropping below zero.
 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A weak circulation will pass just south of the Tulsa area this
morning, dissipating near the OK-AR border this afternoon. Cool
northerly flow to the north of this will keep temperatures a bit
lower, with warming southerly flow to the south. After the
circulation passes, low clouds will increase along with somewhat
breezier northerly flow. Otherwise, the going forecast is mostly
in good shape. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Mid level shortwave crossing the Rockies tonight will swing
through the central/southern plains Thursday. In addition to
increasing higher clouds overnight ahead of this system, low 
level winds will also respond to some degree overnight. These two 
factors will reduce freezing fog potential compared to last couple
of nights, however valley locations of southeast OK and western 
AR will be the last to feel impact from clouds/wind and thus will 
still have some potential for localized freezing fog, and may 
induce a few additional slick spots and reduced visibility through
mid Thursday morning.

Moisture profiles with the approaching wave are not impressive,
but some patchy light rain may be forced as the wave slides just 
to our north and induces sfc low pressure that tracks across
southern OK. Temp profiles may cool enough on back side of system
for a mix or change to light snow, however this will be of little
or no impact. Winds on back side will switch around to the north 
later this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Initial surge of colder air arrives tonight into Friday morning  
as the wave departs to the east. Highs Friday will likely remain
below freezing across a good portion of northeast OK and northwest
AR. More robust surge of cold air arrives late Friday afternoon 
and Friday evening with an increase in north winds as temps fall 
into the single digits and teens by Saturday morning. Cold weather
highlights will be needed during this period as wind chills fall 
below zero in most areas. A brief period of flurries is possible 
as the Arctic air arrives. Winds will die down Saturday afternoon 
as sfc high builds in, but highs will struggle to reach mid 20s in
much of the area. 

Sfc high will move southeast with return flow quickly established
Saturday night and Sunday, making the bitter cold snap short-
lived. Moderation in temperatures back to near normal occurs
early next week ahead of another approaching system, which brings
next chance of precipitation mid-week. At this point it looks 
more like a rain event with some low winter weather potential
possible on the back side, but details are not yet clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as a cold front
moves through the area, but should mainly remain low end VFR.
Ceilings will likely lower to MVFR at the Arkansas sites this
evening. At least a brief period of MVFR may also occur at the
Oklahoma sites, but confidence is lower there. Precipitation
chances are too low to include in the TAF's. North winds may gust
to near 20 knots at times at the eastern Oklahoma sites this
afternoon following the passage of the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  17  31   6 /  10   0   0  10 
FSM   47  23  38  11 /  20  10   0   0 
MLC   46  20  37   9 /  10  10   0   0 
BVO   37  13  30   1 /  20   0   0  10 
FYV   47  17  33   4 /  20  20   0  10 
BYV   43  19  30   5 /  10  30   0  10 
MKO   43  18  34   7 /  10  10   0  10 
MIO   39  15  28   3 /  10  10   0  10 
F10   43  18  35   6 /  10   0   0  10 
HHW   48  25  42  13 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260129T1420.txt



523 
FXUS64 KTSA 291137
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
537 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 534 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

 - Patchy freezing fog may impact portions of eastern Oklahoma and
   wester Arkansas late tonight and into Thursday morning.
 
 - Low chance of a few rain or snow showers across northeast 
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. 

 - Very cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday night
   into Saturday morning behind a strong cold front, with minimum
   wind chill values dropping below zero.
 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Mid level shortwave crossing the Rockies tonight will swing
through the central/southern plains Thursday. In addition to
increasing higher clouds overnight ahead of this system, low 
level winds will also respond to some degree overnight. These two 
factors will reduce freezing fog potential compared to last couple
of nights, however valley locations of southeast OK and western 
AR will be the last to feel impact from clouds/wind and thus will 
still have some potential for localized freezing fog, and may 
induce a few additional slick spots and reduced visibility through
mid Thursday morning.

Moisture profiles with the approaching wave are not impressive,
but some patchy light rain may be forced as the wave slides just 
to our north and induces sfc low pressure that tracks across
southern OK. Temp profiles may cool enough on back side of system
for a mix or change to light snow, however this will be of little
or no impact. Winds on back side will switch around to the north 
later this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Initial surge of colder air arrives tonight into Friday morning  
as the wave departs to the east. Highs Friday will likely remain
below freezing across a good portion of northeast OK and northwest
AR. More robust surge of cold air arrives late Friday afternoon 
and Friday evening with an increase in north winds as temps fall 
into the single digits and teens by Saturday morning. Cold weather
highlights will be needed during this period as wind chills fall 
below zero in most areas. A brief period of flurries is possible 
as the Arctic air arrives. Winds will die down Saturday afternoon 
as sfc high builds in, but highs will struggle to reach mid 20s in
much of the area. 

Sfc high will move southeast with return flow quickly established
Saturday night and Sunday, making the bitter cold snap short-
lived. Moderation in temperatures back to near normal occurs
early next week ahead of another approaching system, which brings
next chance of precipitation mid-week. At this point it looks 
more like a rain event with some low winter weather potential
possible on the back side, but details are not yet clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as a cold front
moves through the area, but should mainly remain low end VFR.
Ceilings will likely lower to MVFR at the Arkansas sites this
evening. At least a brief period of MVFR may also occur at the
Oklahoma sites, but confidence is lower there. Precipitation
chances are too low to include in the TAF's. North winds may gust
to near 20 knots at times at the eastern Oklahoma sites this
afternoon following the passage of the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  17  31   6 /  10   0   0  10 
FSM   47  23  38  11 /  20  10   0   0 
MLC   46  20  37   9 /  10  10   0   0 
BVO   37  13  30   1 /  20   0   0  10 
FYV   47  17  33   4 /  20  20   0  10 
BYV   43  19  30   5 /  10  30   0  10 
MKO   43  18  34   7 /  10  10   0  10 
MIO   39  15  28   3 /  10  10   0  10 
F10   43  18  35   6 /  10   0   0  10 
HHW   48  25  42  13 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260129T1137.txt