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033
FXUS64 KTSA 281914
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
The remnants of the overnight thunderstorm complex have finally
shifted east of the area for the most part, with only a few
lingering showers across parts of Arkansas. Redevelopment of
thunderstorms remains expected from mid afternoon into the evening
in advance of the cold front/dryline. The persistent cloud cover
and rainfall has delayed an increase in instability across much of
the region, but mesoanalysis indicates a local maximum in
instability currently across south central and into portions of
southeast Oklahoma, where initial development is likely to be
located. Thunderstorms will shift to the north and east through
the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, likely exiting the
area to the east mid to late evening. Shear parameters, along with
an expected increase in instability more into eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas, will support a severe weather threat, including
large hail, damaging winds and a low tornado threat. In addition,
another round of heavy rain could occur, with localized flooding
remaining possible.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
After an active last few days, the early part of the work week
will provide a brief break, with surface high pressure bringing
dry weather into much of Tuesday. A storm system in the Northern
Plains toward the middle of the week will drag a front southward
toward the Oklahoma/Kansas border, leading to low shower and
thunderstorm chances on Wednesday. More widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday along with a cold front
that is expected to move through the area. Both severe weather and
heavy rain/flooding threats will exist with the Thursday and
Thursday night storms. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue into early next weekend, with a more substantial system
expected toward the end of next weekend along with higher storm
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Thr focus for additional rain and storms will come later this
afternoon and continue into the evening so will tempo thunder from
late afternoon and into the evening at KMLC and all AR sites with
MVFR cigs and vsbys. Expect MVFR cigs to prevail across the AR
sites after 05z. Across the NE OK sites, conditions are expected
to improve VFR in time with storm coverage later today expected
to remain east of KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. Will include a period of MVFR
vsbys in fog after 09z at KMLC/KBVO and KRVS as clearing skies,
light winds and saturated grounds will support fog potential.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 80 59 86 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 61 83 59 87 / 50 0 0 0
MLC 59 83 60 86 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 49 80 54 86 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 57 80 55 85 / 50 0 0 0
BYV 59 78 54 84 / 60 0 0 0
MKO 57 80 57 84 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 54 78 54 84 / 30 0 0 0
F10 56 80 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 61 81 59 82 / 30 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069-
072-074>076.
AR...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20240428T1914.txt
363
FXUS64 KTSA 281729
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
The back edge of an expansive area of showers and a isolated
thunderstorms currently extends from SE OK through NW AR. This
trend will continue into the early to mid afternoon hours when
at that time focus will be on additional convection that develops
along the dryline/cold front. While redevelopment is likely later
this afternoon with increasing coverage as the boundary pushes
east, the amount of destabilization that occurs remains in
question. This may be a limiting factor for overall severe
potential. Additional heavy rainfall remains possible this
afternoon and evening from SE OK through NW AR with the stronger
activity. Combined with previous rainfall, the flood threat will
be maintained into this evening in these locations. Therefore, the
flood watch has been extended to 06z Monday. Further back to the
west. Storm coverage is expected to remain limited, so the flood
watch has been cancelled. This update mainly reflects adjusting
PoPs through 00z and removing/extending flood headlines as needed.
At this time, will leave temperatures and the rest of the first
period elements as they are.
Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly...Updated FFA already sent.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A quiet night will be on tap into Monday morning, with cooler low
temperatures expected, mostly in the 50s. Monday will be mild and
dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will warm
further Tuesday, with low to mid 80s expected.
A broad and deep trough will settle across the Great Basin and
northern Great Plains by Tuesday evening, continuing into the
weekend before it finally lifts out. This will induce a prolonged
period of moist southerly flow with periodic upper level ascent,
with the forecast area on the edge of the right entrance region of
the upper level jet. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along
weak frontal features that will move into the area Tuesday evening
and Wednesday. More widespread and substantial precipitation is
then anticipated Thursday and Friday as a stronger cold front
pushes south into the area. There is some potential for severe
weather during this period given the unstable airmass, good wind
shear, and decent forcing. The exact details of any severe weather
will come down to smaller scale details that we won't know for a
few more days. Cooler and drier weather is then expected by next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Thr focus for additional rain and storms will come later this
afternoon and continue into the evening so will tempo thunder from
late afternoon and into the evening at KMLC and all AR sites with
MVFR cigs and vsbys. Expect MVFR cigs to prevail across the AR
sites after 05z. Across the NE OK sites, conditions are expected
to improve VFR in time with storm coverage later today expected
to remain east of KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. Will include a period of MVFR
vsbys in fog after 09z at KMLC/KBVO and KRVS as clearing skies,
light winds and saturated grounds will support fog potential.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 81 59 86 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 62 83 58 87 / 60 10 0 10
MLC 59 83 59 84 / 20 10 0 10
BVO 49 79 55 86 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 57 80 55 85 / 60 10 0 10
BYV 58 78 54 84 / 70 10 0 0
MKO 57 80 57 84 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 53 78 55 83 / 30 0 0 10
F10 57 80 58 84 / 10 0 0 10
HHW 60 81 59 81 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069-
072-074>076.
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20240428T1729.txt
739
FXUS64 KTSA 281544
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1044 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
The back edge of an expansive area of showers and a isolated
thunderstorms currently extends from SE OK through NW AR. This
trend will continue into the early to mid afternoon hours when
at that time focus will be on additional convection that develops
along the dryline/cold front. While redevelopment is likely later
this afternoon with increasing coverage as the boundary pushes
east, the amount of destabilization that occurs remains in
question. This may be a limiting factor for overall severe
potential. Additional heavy rainfall remains possible this
afternoon and evening from SE OK through NW AR with the stronger
activity. Combined with previous rainfall, the flood threat will
be maintained into this evening in these locations. Therefore, the
flood watch has been extended to 06z Monday. Further back to the
west. Storm coverage is expected to remain limited, so the flood
watch has been cancelled. This update mainly reflects adjusting
PoPs through 00z and removing/extending flood headlines as needed.
At this time, will leave temperatures and the rest of the first
period elements as they are.
Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly...Updated FFA already sent.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A quiet night will be on tap into Monday morning, with cooler low
temperatures expected, mostly in the 50s. Monday will be mild and
dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will warm
further Tuesday, with low to mid 80s expected.
A broad and deep trough will settle across the Great Basin and
northern Great Plains by Tuesday evening, continuing into the
weekend before it finally lifts out. This will induce a prolonged
period of moist southerly flow with periodic upper level ascent,
with the forecast area on the edge of the right entrance region of
the upper level jet. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along
weak frontal features that will move into the area Tuesday evening
and Wednesday. More widespread and substantial precipitation is
then anticipated Thursday and Friday as a stronger cold front
pushes south into the area. There is some potential for severe
weather during this period given the unstable airmass, good wind
shear, and decent forcing. The exact details of any severe weather
will come down to smaller scale details that we won't know for a
few more days. Cooler and drier weather is then expected by next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Large area of RA/TSRA moving off to the east this morning,
with the E OK sites seeing improving conditions starting early in
the valid period. MVFR/IFR cigs(MVFR vsbys in a brief period of TSRA)
at those sites should improve to VFR by early afternoon.
Additional development this afternoon may be just to the east of
these sites but will tempo TSRA in for a few hours starting at
21z. Conditions to improve once TSRA moves east, but any clearing
late tonight and light winds will promote some fog development so
will tempo in MVFR vsbys in fog at all the E OK sites except KTUL.
Further east at the AR sites, rain and thunder will remain
ongoing through a good portion of the morning with a period MVFR
cigs and vsbys where thunder occurs. There may be a brief lull in
convection, but the focus for additional rain and storms will come
later this afternoon and continue into the evening so will tempo
thunder at those sites between 23z-03z/00z-04z. VFR cigs are
expected to prevail for the last 6 hours or so of the valid period
at those locations. Given the expected cloud cover, will not
include any mention of fog at the AR sites with this issuance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 78 55 81 59 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 76 62 83 58 / 60 60 10 0
MLC 76 59 83 59 / 40 20 10 0
BVO 77 49 79 55 / 10 10 0 10
FYV 73 57 80 55 / 60 60 10 0
BYV 72 58 78 54 / 70 70 10 0
MKO 74 57 80 57 / 40 20 0 0
MIO 72 53 78 55 / 40 30 0 0
F10 77 57 80 58 / 20 10 0 0
HHW 75 60 81 59 / 50 30 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069-
072-074>076.
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20240428T1544.txt
113
FXUS64 KTSA 281151
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
651 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A line of heavy thunderstorms, some severe, continues to advance
east, now impacting southeast OK and northwest AR. This area of
storms will gradually weaken, eventually exiting the forecast area
by around 10 AM. Moderate rainfall is falling behind the line for
most of eastern OK. This broad area of rain will also gradually move
eastwards, but will not totally exit the forecast area until late
morning or early afternoon. Total precipitation (counting what has
already fallen) will vary widely, but when all is said and done a
few areas may exceed 4", with most areas seeing 1-3".
CAM guidance is in good agreement that storms will reinvigorate
along a north south line from roughly Tulsa to McAlester, with
storms then progressing east. Although there will not be near as
significant of shear or instability as was present today, there is a
15-30% chance of severe weather (within 25 points of any given
point) with the highest threat in northwest AR. The main hazards
will likely be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated
tornado could also occur. Any storms will wrap up by the evening.
In terms of temperatures, highs will generally be in the mid 70s to
near 80F for eastern OK, but highs are a bit trickier for northwest
AR where more precipitation is forecast. Lowered forecast highs a
bit below NBM for northwest AR.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A quiet night will be on tap into Monday morning, with cooler low
temperatures expected, mostly in the 50s. Monday will be mild and
dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will warm
further Tuesday, with low to mid 80s expected.
A broad and deep trough will settle across the Great Basin and
northern Great Plains by Tuesday evening, continuing into the
weekend before it finally lifts out. This will induce a prolonged
period of moist southerly flow with periodic upper level ascent,
with the forecast area on the edge of the right entrance region of
the upper level jet. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along
weak frontal features that will move into the area Tuesday evening
and Wednesday. More widespread and substantial precipitation is
then anticipated Thursday and Friday as a stronger cold front
pushes south into the area. There is some potential for severe
weather during this period given the unstable airmass, good wind
shear, and decent forcing. The exact details of any severe weather
will come down to smaller scale details that we won't know for a
few more days. Cooler and drier weather is then expected by next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Large area of RA/TSRA moving off to the east this morning,
with the E OK sites seeing improving conditions starting early in
the valid period. MVFR/IFR cigs(MVFR vsbys in a brief period of TSRA)
at those sites should improve to VFR by early afternoon.
Additional development this afternoon may be just to the east of
these sites but will tempo TSRA in for a few hours starting at
21z. Conditions to improve once TSRA moves east, but any clearing
late tonight and light winds will promote some fog development so
will tempo in MVFR vsbys in fog at all the E OK sites except KTUL.
Further east at the AR sites, rain and thunder will remain
ongoing through a good portion of the morning with a period MVFR
cigs and vsbys where thunder occurs. There may be a brief lull in
convection, but the focus for additional rain and storms will come
later this afternoon and continue into the evening so will tempo
thunder at those sites between 23z-03z/00z-04z. VFR cigs are
expected to prevail for the last 6 hours or so of the valid period
at those locations. Given the expected cloud cover, will not
include any mention of fog at the AR sites with this issuance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 78 55 81 59 / 80 10 0 0
FSM 76 62 83 58 / 90 60 10 0
MLC 76 59 83 59 / 100 20 10 0
BVO 77 49 79 55 / 70 10 0 10
FYV 73 57 80 55 / 100 60 10 0
BYV 72 58 78 54 / 90 70 10 0
MKO 74 57 80 57 / 100 20 0 0
MIO 72 53 78 55 / 100 30 0 0
F10 77 57 80 58 / 90 10 0 0
HHW 75 60 81 59 / 100 30 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053-055>058-
060>063-066>076.
AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20240428T1151.txt
697
FXUS64 KTSA 280739
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
239 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A line of heavy thunderstorms, some severe, continues to advance
east, now impacting southeast OK and northwest AR. This area of
storms will gradually weaken, eventually exiting the forecast area
by around 10 AM. Moderate rainfall is falling behind the line for
most of eastern OK. This broad area of rain will also gradually move
eastwards, but will not totally exit the forecast area until late
morning or early afternoon. Total precipitation (counting what has
already fallen) will vary widely, but when all is said and done a
few areas may exceed 4", with most areas seeing 1-3".
CAM guidance is in good agreement that storms will reinvigorate
along a north south line from roughly Tulsa to McAlester, with
storms then progressing east. Although there will not be near as
significant of shear or instability as was present today, there is a
15-30% chance of severe weather (within 25 points of any given
point) with the highest threat in northwest AR. The main hazards
will likely be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated
tornado could also occur. Any storms will wrap up by the evening.
In terms of temperatures, highs will generally be in the mid 70s to
near 80F for eastern OK, but highs are a bit trickier for northwest
AR where more precipitation is forecast. Lowered forecast highs a
bit below NBM for northwest AR.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A quiet night will be on tap into Monday morning, with cooler low
temperatures expected, mostly in the 50s. Monday will be mild and
dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will warm
further Tuesday, with low to mid 80s expected.
A broad and deep trough will settle across the Great Basin and
northern Great Plains by Tuesday evening, continuing into the
weekend before it finally lifts out. This will induce a prolonged
period of moist southerly flow with periodic upper level ascent,
with the forecast area on the edge of the right entrance region of
the upper level jet. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along
weak frontal features that will move into the area Tuesday evening
and Wednesday. More widespread and substantial precipitation is
then anticipated Thursday and Friday as a stronger cold front
pushes south into the area. There is some potential for severe
weather during this period given the unstable airmass, good wind
shear, and decent forcing. The exact details of any severe weather
will come down to smaller scale details that we won't know for a
few more days. Cooler and drier weather is then expected by next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Line of storms will sweep across the TAF sites over the next 6 to
9 hours, with deteriorating conditions expected along with strong
wind gusts. MVFR cigs will persist in the wake of the system thru
the morning with some spotty showers. Another round of storms may
develop during the afternoon and slide across the TAF sites,
especially NW AR where tempo groups will be used.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 78 55 81 59 / 80 10 0 0
FSM 76 62 83 58 / 90 60 10 0
MLC 76 59 83 59 / 100 20 10 0
BVO 77 49 79 55 / 70 10 0 10
FYV 73 57 80 55 / 100 60 10 0
BYV 72 58 78 54 / 90 70 10 0
MKO 74 57 80 57 / 100 20 0 0
MIO 72 53 78 55 / 100 30 0 0
F10 77 57 80 58 / 90 10 0 0
HHW 75 60 81 59 / 100 30 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20240428T0739.txt
983
FXUS64 KTSA 280531
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
The forecast generally remains on track. Thus far, severe storms
have been confined to the far northwest part of our forecast
area, but that is about to change. Storms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity to our west, and these storms will move
into eastern Oklahoma within the next hour or so, with an all
hazard severe risk. A large QLCS will eventually evolve and sweep
across the entire forecast area overnight with damaging winds, a
few tornadoes, sporadic hail, and widespread heavy rainfall. Both
flash and river flood flooding will become a major concern heading
into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Have made only minor
changes to pops tonight, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for
severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease
in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of
thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop
along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the
evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes
and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in
time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the
watch area.
A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into
Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days.
The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe
thunderstorms, mid to late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Line of storms will sweep across the TAF sites over the next 6 to
9 hours, with deteriorating conditions expected along with strong
wind gusts. MVFR cigs will persist in the wake of the system thru
the morning with some spotty showers. Another round of storms may
develop during the afternoon and slide across the TAF sites,
especially NW AR where tempo groups will be used.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 77 55 80 58 / 80 10 10 0
FSM 77 61 82 60 / 100 50 10 10
MLC 76 60 82 63 / 90 10 10 10
BVO 77 51 78 55 / 70 10 0 10
FYV 74 57 80 59 / 90 50 10 10
BYV 73 57 78 56 / 100 60 10 10
MKO 74 58 79 59 / 90 10 10 0
MIO 73 54 76 56 / 90 30 10 10
F10 76 58 79 61 / 80 10 10 10
HHW 73 61 80 62 / 90 30 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20240428T0531.txt
984
FXUS64 KTSA 280305
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1005 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
The forecast generally remains on track. Thus far, severe storms
have been confined to the far northwest part of our forecast
area, but that is about to change. Storms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity to our west, and these storms will move
into eastern Oklahoma within the next hour or so, with an all
hazard severe risk. A large QLCS will eventually evolve and sweep
across the entire forecast area overnight with damaging winds, a
few tornadoes, sporadic hail, and widespread heavy rainfall. Both
flash and river flood flooding will become a major concern heading
into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Have made only minor
changes to pops tonight, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for
severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease
in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of
thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop
along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the
evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes
and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in
time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the
watch area.
A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into
Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days.
The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe
thunderstorms, mid to late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Flying conditions are expected to worsen as we move through the
night and into Sunday morning as showers/storms become widespread
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 63 77 55 80 / 100 80 10 10
FSM 66 77 61 82 / 80 100 50 10
MLC 65 76 60 82 / 100 90 10 10
BVO 61 77 51 78 / 100 70 10 0
FYV 63 74 57 80 / 80 90 50 10
BYV 63 73 57 78 / 80 100 60 10
MKO 63 74 58 79 / 90 90 10 10
MIO 62 73 54 76 / 100 90 30 10
F10 63 76 58 79 / 100 80 10 10
HHW 66 73 61 80 / 80 90 30 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20240428T0305.txt
479
FXUS64 KTSA 280001
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Short-term severe weather and flash flood concerns dominate the
focus of the forecast today, with thunderstorm coverage expected
to increase through the rest of the afternoon and evening,
continuing well into Sunday. Thunderstorms are ongoing in western
Oklahoma, nearer to the dryline, with coverage also increasing in
central Oklahoma in the warm sector. CAMs continue to show the
warm sector activity expanding northeastward into eastern Oklahoma
and eventually western Arkansas mid to late afternoon into the
evening. Mesoanalysis and radar presentation would suggest that
northeast Oklahoma is at the greatest risk in the near term for
the bulk of this, with the rest of the forecast area following
toward evening. The expectation is that one or more lines of
storms will form to the west this evening and move eastward into
Sunday morning, as the upper level system moves into the Central
Plains. Forecast soundings are supportive of very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon and evening, including
strong tornadoes, especially into northeast Oklahoma. While the
severe weather threat is not expected to completely diminish,
there should be a transition during the evening and into the
overnight toward a flash flood threat given unseasonably high
precipitable water values and potential for 2 to 5 inches -
locally 6 to 8 - of rain over a widespread area. The Flood Watch
has been expanded into all of eastern Oklahoma as well as
northwest and west central Arkansas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for
severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease
in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of
thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop
along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the
evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes
and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in
time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the
watch area.
A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into
Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days.
The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe
thunderstorms, mid to late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Flying conditions are expected to worsen as we move through the
night and into Sunday morning as showers/storms become widespread
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 63 77 55 / 40 100 80 10
FSM 81 66 77 61 / 40 70 100 50
MLC 81 65 76 60 / 40 100 90 10
BVO 80 61 77 51 / 40 90 70 10
FYV 78 63 74 57 / 40 80 90 50
BYV 78 63 73 57 / 30 60 100 60
MKO 80 63 74 58 / 40 90 90 10
MIO 80 62 73 54 / 30 100 90 30
F10 79 63 76 58 / 40 100 80 10
HHW 80 66 73 61 / 40 80 90 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20240428T0001.txt
