Home
721
FXUS64 KTSA 141725
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
- Cooler and drier weather is expected through Monday before
warmer weather returns through mid week.
- Low to medium thunderstorm chances Tuesday night.
- Unsettled pattern returns late next week with additional storm
and heavy rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The precipitation has shifted south of the forecast area this
afternoon, with only some light sprinkles/drizzle hanging around
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the
afternoon. Additional light showers may try to develop across
southeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening as the mid
level trough axis remains over the region. any precipitation
should remain light, with the heavy rain threat remaining well
south of the area. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in
behind the passing frontal boundary with lows dropping into the
60s for most areas tonight. Some locations across the north that
can clear out of cloud cover could dip into the 50s by early
tomorrow morning. As surface high pressure settles overhead, any
areas that do clear out will have a chance at some fog development
late tonight owing to the recent rainfall over the region. Better
chances to see clearing skies will be across the north, so have
mentioned some patchy fog for late tonight in these areas.
Otherwise, partly cloudy and calm conditions will prevail over
much of the region with just low chances for some showers across
far southeast Oklahoma through the night.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Northwest flow aloft will remain planted over the region through
much of the next week. Monday should stay dry and relatively cool
as surface ridging remains overhead. Stronger southerly winds
return on Tuesday as the surface high shifts eastward allowing
dewpoints to climb back into the 60s by afternoon as temperatures
climb back to near average for mid June. A shortwave trough moving
across the Central and Northern Plains Tuesday afternoon could
generate a cluster of thunderstorms across Kansas. The resulting
MCS could make a run at northeast Oklahoma overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. The severe threat looks rather minimal by this
point, but a few areas could see some thunderstorms late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The rest of Wednesday should be dry,
with more typical heat building back into the region. Highs will
creep back to near 90 while heat index values push back to near
and above 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
The pattern turns a little more unsettled again heading into the
latter half of the week. A stronger trough moving across the Great
Lakes Region will push another frontal boundary toward the local
region. At the same time, a tropical low if progged to lift
northward out of the Gulf and into the ArkLaTex. This will pull
more tropical like moisture northward and interact with the
aforementioned frontal boundary. Shower and storm chances will
increase beginning Thursday, with periods of rain possible through
Friday as well. More rain chances may arrive by late weekend as
another frontal boundary and storm system track across the Plains.
The various frontal boundaries and storm chances will keep
temperatures somewhat in check, near seasonal norms for this time
of year.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Precipitation has largely moved south of the region, though some
lingering MVFR ceilings will persist but decrease from the north
into this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail for the most part
tonight and Monday morning, however there are indications that
MVFR ceilings may expand north to near KMLC for a time Monday
morning. There is also some fog potential across northwest AR and
far northeast OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 76 61 80 61 / 30 0 0 0
FSM 83 66 81 63 / 50 10 0 10
MLC 80 65 81 62 / 80 20 10 0
BVO 75 57 81 58 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 78 59 78 57 / 20 10 0 0
BYV 76 58 77 56 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 77 62 80 60 / 50 10 0 0
MIO 76 58 78 59 / 10 0 0 0
F10 77 61 79 59 / 70 10 0 0
HHW 83 68 79 65 / 90 40 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260614T1725.txt
161
FXUS64 KTSA 141702
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
- Cooler and drier weather is expected through Monday before
warmer weather returns through mid week.
- Low to medium thunderstorm chances Tuesday night.
- Unsettled pattern returns late next week with additional storm
and heavy rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The precipitation has shifted south of the forecast area this
afternoon, with only some light sprinkles/drizzle hanging around
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the
afternoon. Additional light showers may try to develop across
southeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening as the mid
level trough axis remains over the region. any precipitation
should remain light, with the heavy rain threat remaining well
south of the area. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in
behind the passing frontal boundary with lows dropping into the
60s for most areas tonight. Some locations across the north that
can clear out of cloud cover could dip into the 50s by early
tomorrow morning. As surface high pressure settles overhead, any
areas that do clear out will have a chance at some fog development
late tonight owing to the recent rainfall over the region. Better
chances to see clearing skies will be across the north, so have
mentioned some patchy fog for late tonight in these areas.
Otherwise, partly cloudy and calm conditions will prevail over
much of the region with just low chances for some showers across
far southeast Oklahoma through the night.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Northwest flow aloft will remain planted over the region through
much of the next week. Monday should stay dry and relatively cool
as surface ridging remains overhead. Stronger southerly winds
return on Tuesday as the surface high shifts eastward allowing
dewpoints to climb back into the 60s by afternoon as temperatures
climb back to near average for mid June. A shortwave trough moving
across the Central and Northern Plains Tuesday afternoon could
generate a cluster of thunderstorms across Kansas. The resulting
MCS could make a run at northeast Oklahoma overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. The severe threat looks rather minimal by this
point, but a few areas could see some thunderstorms late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The rest of Wednesday should be dry,
with more typical heat building back into the region. Highs will
creep back to near 90 while heat index values push back to near
and above 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
The pattern turns a little more unsettled again heading into the
latter half of the week. A stronger trough moving across the Great
Lakes Region will push another frontal boundary toward the local
region. At the same time, a tropical low if progged to lift
northward out of the Gulf and into the ArkLaTex. This will pull
more tropical like moisture northward and interact with the
aforementioned frontal boundary. Shower and storm chances will
increase beginning Thursday, with periods of rain possible through
Friday as well. More rain chances may arrive by late weekend as
another frontal boundary and storm system track across the Plains.
The various frontal boundaries and storm chances will keep
temperatures somewhat in check, near seasonal norms for this time
of year.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Widespread SHRA and TSRA continue to impact MLC/FSM early this
forecast period, as convection gradually moves south during the
morning. MVFR/IFR CIGS have developed nern OK and nwrn AR sites, with
some light fog possible through mid morning. Improving CIGS from
north to south beginning midday through afternoon, with VFR expected
all sites by 15/00z. Cold front across nern OK will move through all
terminals by early this afternoon, with northerly wind behind front
becoming light tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 80 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 66 81 63 89 / 10 0 10 0
MLC 65 81 62 88 / 20 10 0 0
BVO 57 81 58 86 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 59 78 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 58 77 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 62 80 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 58 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
F10 61 79 59 86 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 68 79 65 87 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...69
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260614T1702.txt
172
FXUS64 KTSA 141128
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
- Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, continue into Sunday.
Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are likely.
- Cooler weather is expected through Monday before warmer and
wetter weather returns mid week.
- Additional storm chances return for the latter half of the
week which could have limited severe potentials and a heavy
rain threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Strong to severe convection moving south/southeast in northeast
Oklahoma late Saturday evening will continue to push through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Sunday morning. The greatest
severe threat has transitioned to damaging winds with localized
gusts of 60-70+ mph as of this writing. Late Saturday night into
Sunday morning severe potentials should begin to weaken as
instability decreases from north to south. By 09z Sunday, the
majority of the convection is forecast to be across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas in a weakening form, with the leading
line exiting the CWA by 12z Sunday. A gusty to locally strong wind
threat remains late tonight through early morning Sunday.
In addition to the severe threat into Sunday, heavy rainfall has also
been occurring with the strong convection, which will increase flash
flood concerns through the overnight hours. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1 to locally higher than 3 inches remain possible for
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through tonight, which
will also create rises on area streams and rivers. Thus, will
continue the Flood Watch into Sunday for these locations. Farther
south into southeast Oklahoma rainfall amounts into Sunday look to
be less with a half inch to locally approaching 2 inches.
During the day Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push southward with the movement of a cold front sliding through the
region. The greater PoPs Sunday should remain south of Interstate 40
and then taper off from north to south once the 850-mb frontal
boundary begins to push out of the CWA. With the leading line of
convection expected to move out early Sunday morning, additional
severe potentials are not currently anticipated during the day.
Additional rainfall Sunday afternoon is forecast to be light
with generally less than a quarter of an inch. Also during the day,
cooler conditions spread into the region with surface high pressure
beginning to filter into the CWA. Thus, high temperatures Sunday
look to only get into the 70s to mid 80s from north to south.
Rain chances look to linger over southeast Oklahoma into Sunday
night while the mid level trof axis moves across the region. In the
wake of the exiting storm system, low temperatures Sunday look to
fall into 60s for most locations, and the normal cool locations to
touch upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Surface high pressure remains common across the CWA Monday which
will continue the cool conditions. A few lingering showers may
remain possible in far southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours
before the upper level trof axis moves off to the east southeast.
Severe weather is not expected Monday. The cooler conditions become
short-lived into Tuesday as southerly low level flow returns on the
backside of the departing surface high. Tuesday night upper level
flow is progged to be more west northwesterly while a low pressure
system moves through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. In
response, latest model solutions indicate a potential MCS developing
Tuesday evening in Kansas and dropping through the CWA Tuesday
night within the upper level flow. Thus, will continue with chance
PoPs for portions of the CWA into early Wednesday morning. A limited
severe potential for strong winds could exist for northeast Oklahoma
as this complex pushes in.
Warming trend continues into Wednesday with a warm and more humid
airmass in place. Heat index values Wednesday afternoon could reach
up into the mid 90s to near 105 degrees. Conditions for the latter
half of the week are currently forecast to become more unsettled
with an area of low pressure lifting into the southern Plains and
a second mid/upper level trof axis moving through the Plains. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and increase into Friday.
Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat look to
develop with these two waves moving through. Latest model solutions
indicate the majority of the precip trying to exit by early
next weekend with a warming trend returning through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Widespread SHRA and TSRA continue to impact MLC/FSM early this
forecast period, as convection gradually moves south during the
morning. MVFR/IFR CIGS have developed nern OK and nwrn AR sites, with
some light fog possible through mid morning. Improving CIGS from
north to south beginning midday through afternoon, with VFR expected
all sites by 15/00z. Cold front across nern OK will move through all
terminals by early this afternoon, with northerly wind behind front
becoming light tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 76 61 78 61 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 83 66 82 64 / 50 20 10 0
MLC 80 65 81 63 / 50 20 10 0
BVO 75 57 78 58 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 78 59 79 58 / 20 10 0 0
BYV 76 58 76 57 / 20 10 0 0
MKO 77 62 78 60 / 30 10 0 0
MIO 76 58 77 59 / 10 10 0 0
F10 77 61 78 59 / 40 10 0 0
HHW 83 67 79 65 / 80 50 40 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...69
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260614T1128.txt
918
FXUS64 KTSA 140531
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
- Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, continue into Sunday.
Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are likely.
- Cooler weather is expected through Monday before warmer and
wetter weather returns mid week.
- Additional storm chances return for the latter half of the
week which could have limited severe potentials and a heavy
rain threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Strong to severe convection moving south/southeast in northeast
Oklahoma late Saturday evening will continue to push through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Sunday morning. The greatest
severe threat has transitioned to damaging winds with localized
gusts of 60-70+ mph as of this writing. Late Saturday night into
Sunday morning severe potentials should begin to weaken as
instability decreases from north to south. By 09z Sunday, the
majority of the convection is forecast to be across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas in a weakening form, with the leading
line exiting the CWA by 12z Sunday. A gusty to locally strong wind
threat remains late tonight through early morning Sunday.
In addition to the severe threat into Sunday, heavy rainfall has also
been occurring with the strong convection, which will increase flash
flood concerns through the overnight hours. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1 to locally higher than 3 inches remain possible for
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through tonight, which
will also create rises on area streams and rivers. Thus, will
continue the Flood Watch into Sunday for these locations. Farther
south into southeast Oklahoma rainfall amounts into Sunday look to
be less with a half inch to locally approaching 2 inches.
During the day Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push southward with the movement of a cold front sliding through the
region. The greater PoPs Sunday should remain south of Interstate 40
and then taper off from north to south once the 850-mb frontal
boundary begins to push out of the CWA. With the leading line of
convection expected to move out early Sunday morning, additional
severe potentials are not currently anticipated during the day.
Additional rainfall Sunday afternoon is forecast to be light
with generally less than a quarter of an inch. Also during the day,
cooler conditions spread into the region with surface high pressure
beginning to filter into the CWA. Thus, high temperatures Sunday
look to only get into the 70s to mid 80s from north to south.
Rain chances look to linger over southeast Oklahoma into Sunday
night while the mid level trof axis moves across the region. In the
wake of the exiting storm system, low temperatures Sunday look to
fall into 60s for most locations, and the normal cool locations to
touch upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Surface high pressure remains common across the CWA Monday which
will continue the cool conditions. A few lingering showers may
remain possible in far southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours
before the upper level trof axis moves off to the east southeast.
Severe weather is not expected Monday. The cooler conditions become
short-lived into Tuesday as southerly low level flow returns on the
backside of the departing surface high. Tuesday night upper level
flow is progged to be more west northwesterly while a low pressure
system moves through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. In
response, latest model solutions indicate a potential MCS developing
Tuesday evening in Kansas and dropping through the CWA Tuesday
night within the upper level flow. Thus, will continue with chance
PoPs for portions of the CWA into early Wednesday morning. A limited
severe potential for strong winds could exist for northeast Oklahoma
as this complex pushes in.
Warming trend continues into Wednesday with a warm and more humid
airmass in place. Heat index values Wednesday afternoon could reach
up into the mid 90s to near 105 degrees. Conditions for the latter
half of the week are currently forecast to become more unsettled
with an area of low pressure lifting into the southern Plains and
a second mid/upper level trof axis moving through the Plains. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and increase into Friday.
Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat look to
develop with these two waves moving through. Latest model solutions
indicate the majority of the precip trying to exit by early
next weekend with a warming trend returning through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Strong to severe line of thunderstorms moving southeast across nern
OK and nwrn AR at this time resulting in significant aviation impacts
(strong wind, IFR VSBY, MVFR CIG) to terminals early in the forecast
period as this convection affects all airports by 10z. MVFR CIGS
develop early Sunday morning most sites as cold front moves through
the region. Improving CIGS from north to south beginning late morning
through afternoon, with VFR expected all sites by 15/00z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 76 61 78 61 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 83 66 82 64 / 50 20 10 0
MLC 80 65 81 63 / 50 20 10 0
BVO 75 57 78 58 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 78 59 79 58 / 20 10 0 0
BYV 76 58 76 57 / 20 10 0 0
MKO 77 62 78 60 / 30 10 0 0
MIO 76 58 77 59 / 10 10 0 0
F10 77 61 78 59 / 40 10 0 0
HHW 83 67 79 65 / 80 50 40 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ055>058-061>063-
067>069.
AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...69
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260614T0531.txt
480
FXUS64 KTSA 140439
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
- Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, continue into Sunday.
Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are likely.
- Cooler weather is expected through Monday before warmer and
wetter weather returns mid week.
- Additional storm chances return for the latter half of the
week which could have limited severe potentials and a heavy
rain threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Strong to severe convection moving south/southeast in northeast
Oklahoma late Saturday evening will continue to push through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Sunday morning. The greatest
severe threat has transitioned to damaging winds with localized
gusts of 60-70+ mph as of this writing. Late Saturday night into
Sunday morning severe potentials should begin to weaken as
instability decreases from north to south. By 09z Sunday, the
majority of the convection is forecast to be across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas in a weakening form, with the leading
line exiting the CWA by 12z Sunday. A gusty to locally strong wind
threat remains late tonight through early morning Sunday.
In addition to the severe threat into Sunday, heavy rainfall has also
been occurring with the strong convection, which will increase flash
flood concerns through the overnight hours. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1 to locally higher than 3 inches remain possible for
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through tonight, which
will also create rises on area streams and rivers. Thus, will
continue the Flood Watch into Sunday for these locations. Farther
south into southeast Oklahoma rainfall amounts into Sunday look to
be less with a half inch to locally approaching 2 inches.
During the day Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push southward with the movement of a cold front sliding through the
region. The greater PoPs Sunday should remain south of Interstate 40
and then taper off from north to south once the 850-mb frontal
boundary begins to push out of the CWA. With the leading line of
convection expected to move out early Sunday morning, additional
severe potentials are not currently anticipated during the day.
Additional rainfall Sunday afternoon is forecast to be light
with generally less than a quarter of an inch. Also during the day,
cooler conditions spread into the region with surface high pressure
beginning to filter into the CWA. Thus, high temperatures Sunday
look to only get into the 70s to mid 80s from north to south.
Rain chances look to linger over southeast Oklahoma into Sunday
night while the mid level trof axis moves across the region. In the
wake of the exiting storm system, low temperatures Sunday look to
fall into 60s for most locations, and the normal cool locations to
touch upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Surface high pressure remains common across the CWA Monday which
will continue the cool conditions. A few lingering showers may
remain possible in far southeast Oklahoma during the morning hours
before the upper level trof axis moves off to the east southeast.
Severe weather is not expected Monday. The cooler conditions become
short-lived into Tuesday as southerly low level flow returns on the
backside of the departing surface high. Tuesday night upper level
flow is progged to be more west northwesterly while a low pressure
system moves through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. In
response, latest model solutions indicate a potential MCS developing
Tuesday evening in Kansas and dropping through the CWA Tuesday
night within the upper level flow. Thus, will continue with chance
PoPs for portions of the CWA into early Wednesday morning. A limited
severe potential for strong winds could exist for northeast Oklahoma
as this complex pushes in.
Warming trend continues into Wednesday with a warm and more humid
airmass in place. Heat index values Wednesday afternoon could reach
up into the mid 90s to near 105 degrees. Conditions for the latter
half of the week are currently forecast to become more unsettled
with an area of low pressure lifting into the southern Plains and
a second mid/upper level trof axis moving through the Plains. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and increase into Friday.
Limited severe potentials as well as a heavy rain threat look to
develop with these two waves moving through. Latest model solutions
indicate the majority of the precip trying to exit by early
next weekend with a warming trend returning through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Ongoing convection will continue to spread eastward across
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into mid evening.
Within the convection, gusty to strong winds, heavy rains and also
brief MVFR conditions are possible. Additional convection and
showers along a cold front are expected to move southward into
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas mid evening, and
then spread southward into Sunday morning. Again, gusty to strong
winds, heavy rains and MVFR conditions are capable within the
main convective line. Behind the main area of convection, a
period of lingering showers are forecast with MVFR conditions
becoming more likely into Sunday morning. Conditions look to lift
back to VFR mid/late morning for northeast Oklahoma and during
early/mid afternoon for southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas. Winds through the period start out southerly, become
variable with the storms and then transition out of the west and
then northerly during the day Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 69 76 61 78 / 90 20 10 0
FSM 74 83 66 82 / 90 50 20 10
MLC 73 80 65 81 / 90 50 20 10
BVO 66 75 57 78 / 100 20 10 0
FYV 69 78 59 79 / 90 20 10 0
BYV 67 76 58 76 / 90 20 10 0
MKO 70 77 62 78 / 90 30 10 0
MIO 67 76 58 77 / 100 10 10 0
F10 69 77 61 78 / 90 40 10 0
HHW 75 83 67 79 / 70 80 50 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ055>058-061>063-
067>069.
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260614T0439.txt
360
FXUS64 KTSA 132350
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
- Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, are likely tonight into Sunday
morning. Areas of heavy rain and flash/river flooding are
likely.
- Heat Advisory for parts of northeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
this afternoon.
- Overall cooler and drier weather is expected through mid next
week before warmer and wetter weather returns.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Earlier storm activity left a wake of cooler and stable air across
the area, but a surge of warm and humid air is quickly moving north
and scouring out the cooler air. In the immediate short term that
will result in hot and humid conditions developing, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for a portion of eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.
One potentially interesting forecast wrinkle this afternoon will be
a subtle mid level circulation approaching from the west, evident on
visible satellite imagery. CAMs have off and on suggested a few
storms may pop near and north of I-40 this afternoon in response to
this feature, but confidence is low. With that said, if storms did
form, they could become severe given huge instability that is
expected to be in place. Hail would be the dominant threat.
Otherwise, warm advection showers near the OK-KS border also remain
possible into the afternoon.
By late evening and into the overnight hours a strong cold front
will move in from the northwest. Upper level support will be weak
with the trough well removed to the north, but there will be
enough upper level flow and diffluence for storms to develop. Very
large instability will help strong storms to develop near the
front, but line parallel shear will promote quick upscale growth.
Accordingly, a line of storms will form and then move through the
area. Severe weather will be a concern, with strong winds being
the main threat, with a spin up tornado or large hail being
secondary concerns. Very heavy rain is expected with elevated
atmospheric water content across the area. A widespread 1-3
inches is expected with locally higher amounts. Such heavy totals,
along with recent rains, will promote a flood risk along area
rivers and in any location that sees the higher rain rates. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for the areas most likely to be
impacted. Thunderstorms will switch to just showers north of I-40
Sunday morning, with thunderstorms continuing south of the
interstate.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Scattered showers and storms will continue through Sunday, focusing
south of I-40. A relatively cool northerly breeze will keep
temperatures down Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 70s to low
80s and lows in the 60s. Dew points will also briefly drop as
conditions dry out. A few spots may even reach the upper 50s
Monday and Tuesday mornings.
Temperatures will rebound mid week with a temporary resurgence of
upper level ridging, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. By this
point, a strong trough in the Great Lakes lakes region will help
to strengthen the flow aloft. At the same time, an ejecting
trough out of the southwest will increase low level moisture and
instability. The result will be a resurgence of rain and thunder
chances, continuing into the weekend. Temperatures will cool
slightly to near normal during this stretch.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Ongoing convection will continue to spread eastward across
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into mid evening.
Within the convection, gusty to strong winds, heavy rains and also
brief MVFR conditions are possible. Additional convection and
showers along a cold front are expected to move southward into
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas mid evening, and
then spread southward into Sunday morning. Again, gusty to strong
winds, heavy rains and MVFR conditions are capable within the
main convective line. Behind the main area of convection, a
period of lingering showers are forecast with MVFR conditions
becoming more likely into Sunday morning. Conditions look to lift
back to VFR mid/late morning for northeast Oklahoma and during
early/mid afternoon for southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas. Winds through the period start out southerly, become
variable with the storms and then transition out of the west and
then northerly during the day Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 69 76 61 79 / 90 20 0 0
FSM 73 83 66 81 / 90 50 20 10
MLC 72 80 65 79 / 90 60 20 10
BVO 66 76 57 79 / 100 10 10 0
FYV 69 78 58 79 / 90 40 0 0
BYV 67 76 57 78 / 90 30 0 0
MKO 70 77 61 78 / 90 40 10 0
MIO 66 76 57 79 / 100 10 0 0
F10 69 77 61 78 / 90 40 20 0
HHW 74 83 68 79 / 60 70 50 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ055>058-061>063-
067>069.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055-056-059>061-
064-067-154-254-354.
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260613T2350.txt
