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FXUS64 KAMA 161742 AAA
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the eastern and
portions of the central Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. If
thunderstorms can develop, there is a very low chance for a
thunderstorm to become strong to severe.
- Widespread 100 to 110 degree temperatures are expected for the
combined Panhandles on Wednesday. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect
for Palo Duro Canyon.
- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday night and Monday. Strong to
severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain but appears very low
at this time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
An isolated storm has formed northeast of Guymon this morning and
is moving southeast. The environment is not supportive for a
severe storm this morning but some light rain and lightning may
occur with this cell before it dissipates. Looking towards the
afternoon into the early evening, strong enough heating combined
with a plume of moisture may result in isolated thunderstorms
across the eastern Panhandles. Confidence in storms forming is
still not the highest, but more CAMs are starting to suggest that
storm initiation may occur. Sufficient instability and shear will
be in place that if a storm does form, it could be severe, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. If
anything does form, it will likely lose strength early this
evening as temperatures begin to cool down.
Muscha
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Some rain or elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing in the
northeastern Panhandles Tuesday morning, but that should dissipate
after sunrise. Southwesterly low-level winds will draw in warmer air
from New Mexico and we'll see temperatures warm into the low to mid-
90s across the Panhandles. In the presence of weak mid-level forcing
(at best), perhaps a weak surface trough, and temperatures
potentially reaching convective temperature, there is a low chance
for thunderstorms to develop across the eastern Texas Panhandle.
CAMs and mesoscale models show show anywhere from 1000 to 2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE in this area along with 35-40 kts of effective shear in
the mid to late afternoon. These factors, combined with favorable
directional shear, would favor supercells with a threat for large
hail up to the size of ping pong balls and 60 mph wind gusts.
However, again, confidence is low in the potential for storms to
develop given weak forcing at best. Thus, PoPs around 10% seems
reasonable. Activity should weaken after sunset.
The Panhandles will be on the northeastern periphery of an upper-
level ridge that is very tilted off to the northwest. Very warm
850mb temperatures will advect into the Panhandles throughout
Wednesday. By the late afternoon, 850mb temperatures are expected to
range from 34C (93F) to 37C (99F), which is near or above the
climatological maximum for that date. This will support widespread
100+ degree high temperatures on Wednesday. A caveat is in the
eastern Panhandles where there are some indications that low-level
moisture will stick around into the afternoon, perhaps throughout
the day, which could cause temperatures to underachieve but heat
indices to overachieve. Regardless, the issuance of a Heat
Advisory may be needed for portions of the southern Texas Panhandle.
A surface low will develop in eastern New Mexico throughout
Wednesday before creeping into west Texas Wednesday night and
strengthens. The cyclonic flow around the surface low will cause low-
level moisture to push back into the southeastern Texas Panhandle as
the northerly winds begins to draw cooler air into the Panhandles.
Winds will become breezy overnight as this surface low develops, and
we will see cooler temperatures move in from the north throughout
the night.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Much cooler air will filter in throughout Thursday behind a cold
front. In fact, high temperatures are likely to occur in the morning
for portions of the central/southern Texas Panhandle if the frontal
timing holds up. We could see some showers or elevated thunderstorms
Thursday night across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, but forcing
is weak which limits confidence. If thunderstorms do develop,
forecast soundings indicate noteworthy elevated instability, ranging
from 1000-2000 J/kg on the more conservative side (GFS) to 2000-3000
J/kg. Hail and lightning would be the most likely hazards, but
generally weak shear should limit the magnitude of the hail threat.
An upper-level trough will move into the Western US on Friday which
pumps a ridge over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm
back up on Friday, but especially on Saturday when highs in the
mid/upper-90s will return.
Zonal flow aloft will become present on Sunday with a flattened
upper-level ridge over southwest Texas and northwestern Mexico.
Perturbations in the zonal flow may provide enough forcing for
thunderstorms to develop, but there is some question about the
availability of mid-level moisture. If a solution like the GFS
verifies, which has significantly dry 700mb air advecting into much
of the area, then thunderstorms would be unlikely Sunday and Sunday
night.
Temperatures may cool somewhat going into Monday, but still looking
at widespread 90s across the area. Thunderstorm chances look better
than Sunday given favorable mid-level moisture advection.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
As of this afternoon all terminals where reporting VFR conditions
with skies relatively clear. However, potential is present to see
thunderstorms develop later this evening in the Eastern Panhandles
with potential to see these storm strengthen into severe
thunderstorms. Currently latest CAMs are trending towards any
storm development having very little chance of impacting the
terminals with only the NAM3KM having an isolated storm getting
within the vicinity of KAMA. Given this have chose to leave
mention of any storms out of the current package. Moving into the
overnight does see a low-level jet set up, which could result in
some low-level wind shear for the overnight. However, present
model sounding are seeing good chances of these winds bleeding
down, which may result in 30kt gust at the surface instead.
Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold over the next 24 hours.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260616T1742.txt
521
FXUS64 KAMA 161145
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the eastern and
portions of the central Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. If
thunderstorms can develop, there is a very low chance for a
thunderstorm to become strong to severe.
- Widespread 100 to 110 degree temperatures are expected for the
combined Panhandles on Wednesday. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect
for Palo Duro Canyon.
- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday night and Monday. Strong to
severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain but appears very low
at this time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
An isolated storm has formed northeast of Guymon this morning and
is moving southeast. The environment is not supportive for a
severe storm this morning but some light rain and lightning may
occur with this cell before it dissipates. Looking towards the
afternoon into the early evening, strong enough heating combined
with a plume of moisture may result in isolated thunderstorms
across the eastern Panhandles. Confidence in storms forming is
still not the highest, but more CAMs are starting to suggest that
storm initiation may occur. Sufficient instability and shear will
be in place that if a storm does form, it could be severe, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. If
anything does form, it will likely lose strength early this
evening as temperatures begin to cool down.
Muscha
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Some rain or elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing in the
northeastern Panhandles Tuesday morning, but that should dissipate
after sunrise. Southwesterly low-level winds will draw in warmer air
from New Mexico and we'll see temperatures warm into the low to mid-
90s across the Panhandles. In the presence of weak mid-level forcing
(at best), perhaps a weak surface trough, and temperatures
potentially reaching convective temperature, there is a low chance
for thunderstorms to develop across the eastern Texas Panhandle.
CAMs and mesoscale models show show anywhere from 1000 to 2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE in this area along with 35-40 kts of effective shear in
the mid to late afternoon. These factors, combined with favorable
directional shear, would favor supercells with a threat for large
hail up to the size of ping pong balls and 60 mph wind gusts.
However, again, confidence is low in the potential for storms to
develop given weak forcing at best. Thus, PoPs around 10% seems
reasonable. Activity should weaken after sunset.
The Panhandles will be on the northeastern periphery of an upper-
level ridge that is very tilted off to the northwest. Very warm
850mb temperatures will advect into the Panhandles throughout
Wednesday. By the late afternoon, 850mb temperatures are expected to
range from 34C (93F) to 37C (99F), which is near or above the
climatological maximum for that date. This will support widespread
100+ degree high temperatures on Wednesday. A caveat is in the
eastern Panhandles where there are some indications that low-level
moisture will stick around into the afternoon, perhaps throughout
the day, which could cause temperatures to underachieve but heat
indices to overachieve. Regardless, the issuance of a Heat
Advisory may be needed for portions of the southern Texas Panhandle.
A surface low will develop in eastern New Mexico throughout
Wednesday before creeping into west Texas Wednesday night and
strengthens. The cyclonic flow around the surface low will cause low-
level moisture to push back into the southeastern Texas Panhandle as
the northerly winds begins to draw cooler air into the Panhandles.
Winds will become breezy overnight as this surface low develops, and
we will see cooler temperatures move in from the north throughout
the night.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Much cooler air will filter in throughout Thursday behind a cold
front. In fact, high temperatures are likely to occur in the morning
for portions of the central/southern Texas Panhandle if the frontal
timing holds up. We could see some showers or elevated thunderstorms
Thursday night across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, but forcing
is weak which limits confidence. If thunderstorms do develop,
forecast soundings indicate noteworthy elevated instability, ranging
from 1000-2000 J/kg on the more conservative side (GFS) to 2000-3000
J/kg. Hail and lightning would be the most likely hazards, but
generally weak shear should limit the magnitude of the hail threat.
An upper-level trough will move into the Western US on Friday which
pumps a ridge over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm
back up on Friday, but especially on Saturday when highs in the
mid/upper-90s will return.
Zonal flow aloft will become present on Sunday with a flattened
upper-level ridge over southwest Texas and northwestern Mexico.
Perturbations in the zonal flow may provide enough forcing for
thunderstorms to develop, but there is some question about the
availability of mid-level moisture. If a solution like the GFS
verifies, which has significantly dry 700mb air advecting into much
of the area, then thunderstorms would be unlikely Sunday and Sunday
night.
Temperatures may cool somewhat going into Monday, but still looking
at widespread 90s across the area. Thunderstorm chances look better
than Sunday given favorable mid-level moisture advection.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
VFR conditions are forecast at the terminals with this TAF
issuance. Light wind out of the south to southwest is forecast
during the day at the sites. The wind will increase starting
around 06z as the low level wind increases and gusts could mix
down to the surface with gusts upwards of 30 kts possible. If
gusts do not mix down, LLWS will occur, but am leaning on the side
of stronger gusts at the surface with this forecast. There are
very low (10-15 percent) chances for a thunderstorm to form or be
near KGUY this afternoon into early this evening, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the TAF.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260616T1145.txt
192
FXUS64 KAMA 160454
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the eastern and
portions of the central Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. If
thunderstorms can develop, there is a very low chance for a
thunderstorm to become strong to severe.
- Widespread 100 to 110 degree temperatures are expected for the
combined Panhandles on Wednesday. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect
for Palo Duro Canyon.
- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday night and Monday. Strong to
severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain but appears very low
at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Some rain or elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing in the
northeastern Panhandles Tuesday morning, but that should dissipate
after sunrise. Southwesterly low-level winds will draw in warmer air
from New Mexico and we'll see temperatures warm into the low to mid-
90s across the Panhandles. In the presence of weak mid-level forcing
(at best), perhaps a weak surface trough, and temperatures
potentially reaching convective temperature, there is a low chance
for thunderstorms to develop across the eastern Texas Panhandle.
CAMs and mesoscale models show show anywhere from 1000 to 2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE in this area along with 35-40 kts of effective shear in
the mid to late afternoon. These factors, combined with favorable
directional shear, would favor supercells with a threat for large
hail up to the size of ping pong balls and 60 mph wind gusts.
However, again, confidence is low in the potential for storms to
develop given weak forcing at best. Thus, PoPs around 10% seems
reasonable. Activity should weaken after sunset.
The Panhandles will be on the northeastern periphery of an upper-
level ridge that is very tilted off to the northwest. Very warm
850mb temperatures will advect into the Panhandles throughout
Wednesday. By the late afternoon, 850mb temperatures are expected to
range from 34C (93F) to 37C (99F), which is near or above the
climatological maximum for that date. This will support widespread
100+ degree high temperatures on Wednesday. A caveat is in the
eastern Panhandles where there are some indications that low-level
moisture will stick around into the afternoon, perhaps throughout
the day, which could cause temperatures to underachieve but heat
indices to overachieve. Regardless, the issuance of a Heat
Advisory may be needed for portions of the southern Texas Panhandle.
A surface low will develop in eastern New Mexico throughout
Wednesday before creeping into west Texas Wednesday night and
strengthens. The cyclonic flow around the surface low will cause low-
level moisture to push back into the southeastern Texas Panhandle as
the northerly winds begins to draw cooler air into the Panhandles.
Winds will become breezy overnight as this surface low develops, and
we will see cooler temperatures move in from the north throughout
the night.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Much cooler air will filter in throughout Thursday behind a cold
front. In fact, high temperatures are likely to occur in the morning
for portions of the central/southern Texas Panhandle if the frontal
timing holds up. We could see some showers or elevated thunderstorms
Thursday night across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, but forcing
is weak which limits confidence. If thunderstorms do develop,
forecast soundings indicate noteworthy elevated instability, ranging
from 1000-2000 J/kg on the more conservative side (GFS) to 2000-3000
J/kg. Hail and lightning would be the most likely hazards, but
generally weak shear should limit the magnitude of the hail threat.
An upper-level trough will move into the Western US on Friday which
pumps a ridge over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm
back up on Friday, but especially on Saturday when highs in the
mid/upper-90s will return.
Zonal flow aloft will become present on Sunday with a flattened
upper-level ridge over southwest Texas and northwestern Mexico.
Perturbations in the zonal flow may provide enough forcing for
thunderstorms to develop, but there is some question about the
availability of mid-level moisture. If a solution like the GFS
verifies, which has significantly dry 700mb air advecting into much
of the area, then thunderstorms would be unlikely Sunday and Sunday
night.
Temperatures may cool somewhat going into Monday, but still looking
at widespread 90s across the area. Thunderstorm chances look better
than Sunday given favorable mid-level moisture advection.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours. A
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for Guymon through the next 6
hours, but chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this
time. Winds will turn southerly at around 10 kts this afternoon,
then south-southeasterly to southeasterly at 10 to 15 kts tonight.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260616T0454.txt
133
FXUS64 KAMA 152312
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- Thunderstorms will move into the western combined Panhandles
this evening, some of which will have the possibility to become
severe.
- Extreme heat expected for the combined Panhandles on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Upper-level NW flow is in place over the combined Panhandles as a
result of a positively-tilted long wave trough spanning from the
east coast to the Northern Great Plains. Northwesterly flow across
the Rockies will establish a lee side shortwave perturbation,
developing a low pressure center in central CO. Upsloping flow and
differential heating of higher terrain will initiate storms in
south-central CO and eastern NM. Storms will move southeasterly
into the combined Panhandles where they will run into moderate
instability (~1000 J/kg) and 30-40 kts of effective shear. This
will support the possibility of developing a few supercells,
before upscale growth into a messier storm mode (likely clusters) as
it progresses southeasterly. The best conditions for severe
weather reside in the northwestern combined Panhandles, where the
more widespread shear meets the most instability. Hodographs look
slightly better in this region as well, but weak surface winds
keep hodographs modest in the low-levels. However, inverted-V
soundings and DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg support the
potential for strong wind gusts as storms move through.
Continuous southwesterly flow overnight and through the day on
Tuesday is progged to increase maximum temperatures by another
10 degrees, putting most of the Panhandles in the low-90's. With
moisture still lingering, the possibility for diurnally heated
storms to convect remains. This is especially true in the
southeast CWA due to some some slight help of surface convergence
from the eastward progression of a diffuse moisture boundary.
Hot and dry southwesterly surface flow is going to top out our
temperatures on Wednesday. These SW winds will persist through
the overnight, but fall off into the afternoon hours, allowing
high temperatures to go untouched by breeze. H850 temperatures are
forecasted in the low- to mid- 30's. The entirety of the combined
Panhandles are expected to be in the triple digits, with PDC
currently forecasted to reach 110 degrees.
Ferguson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Temperatures will taper back off on Thursday as a frontal passage
moves through the Panhandles, shifting winds to northerly. However,
maxT's will still remain in the 80's, before continuing to rise
through the weekend. Northerly flow will shift to easterly by
Thursday night, providing moisture and upsloping flow for PoP
chances to return to the forecast on Friday. Into the weekend, a
trough off of the southern coast of California begins to eject
over the Panhandles, which after a couple days of easterly and
southeasterly moist air moving into the area, could bring back
daily thunderstorm chances. These daily thunderstorm chances
currently favor the eastern Panhandles starting as early as
Saturday evening.
Ferguson
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. A line of
thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico is moving southeast into the
southwest TX Panhandle. Cannot rule out some thunder in KAMA in
the next 2 to 3 hours. However, confidence is somewhat low at this
time. Some additional development of showers and storms in KS may
move into KGUY in the next 3 to 4 hours as well. Gusty convective
winds cannot be ruled out for any of the terminals over the next
few hours. Otherwise expect southerly winds up to 15 to 20 kts at
times.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...03
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260615T2312.txt
770
FXUS64 KAMA 151838
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
138 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- Thunderstorms will move into the western combined Panhandles
this evening, some of which will have the possibility to become
severe.
- Extreme heat expected for the combined Panhandles on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Upper-level NW flow is in place over the combined Panhandles as a
result of a positively-tilted long wave trough spanning from the
east coast to the Northern Great Plains. Northwesterly flow across
the Rockies will establish a lee side shortwave perturbation,
developing a low pressure center in central CO. Upsloping flow and
differential heating of higher terrain will initiate storms in
south-central CO and eastern NM. Storms will move southeasterly
into the combined Panhandles where they will run into moderate
instability (~1000 J/kg) and 30-40 kts of effective shear. This
will support the possibility of developing a few supercells,
before upscale growth into a messier storm mode (likely clusters) as
it progresses southeasterly. The best conditions for severe
weather reside in the northwestern combined Panhandles, where the
more widespread shear meets the most instability. Hodographs look
slightly better in this region as well, but weak surface winds
keep hodographs modest in the low-levels. However, inverted-V
soundings and DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg support the
potential for strong wind gusts as storms move through.
Continuous southwesterly flow overnight and through the day on
Tuesday is progged to increase maximum temperatures by another
10 degrees, putting most of the Panhandles in the low-90's. With
moisture still lingering, the possibility for diurnally heated
storms to convect remains. This is especially true in the
southeast CWA due to some some slight help of surface convergence
from the eastward progression of a diffuse moisture boundary.
Hot and dry southwesterly surface flow is going to top out our
temperatures on Wednesday. These SW winds will persist through
the overnight, but fall off into the afternoon hours, allowing
high temperatures to go untouched by breeze. H850 temperatures are
forecasted in the low- to mid- 30's. The entirety of the combined
Panhandles are expected to be in the triple digits, with PDC
currently forecasted to reach 110 degrees.
Ferguson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Temperatures will taper back off on Thursday as a frontal passage
moves through the Panhandles, shifting winds to northerly. However,
maxT's will still remain in the 80's, before continuing to rise
through the weekend. Northerly flow will shift to easterly by
Thursday night, providing moisture and upsloping flow for PoP
chances to return to the forecast on Friday. Into the weekend, a
trough off of the southern coast of California begins to eject
over the Panhandles, which after a couple days of easterly and
southeasterly moist air moving into the area, could bring back
daily thunderstorm chances. These daily thunderstorm chances
currently favor the eastern Panhandles starting as early as
Saturday evening.
Ferguson
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
As of this afternoon, the present cloud deck from this morning is
showing signs of breaking down with most of the terminals
returning to more consistent VFR conditions. However, these
conditions may not last as present CAMs do see another round of
showers and thunderstorms developing in the Western Panhandles
around 22 to 23 UTC that are expected to progress south and east
through much of the night time hours. While chances are low, the
potential is present for KAMA and KDHT to experience severe
weather impacts in the form of large hail and damaging winds.
However, the primary impact is likely to be more focused on
reduce visibility due to moderate to heavy rainfall from these
storms. Otherwise, conditions do look to clear as we near the
midnight time frame with a low chance of lingering showers for the
overnight.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260615T1838.txt
272
FXUS64 KAMA 151745
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- Isolated to may scattered thunderstorms may move into the
western Panhandles late this afternoon/evening. Main threat
will be lightning and damaging winds.
- Thunderstorm chances return Tue favoring the eastern Panhandles.
- Heat headlines may be needed Wed especially PDC, as temperatures
could reach the triple digits Panhandles wide.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
A positively tilted trough is currently swinging through the
Northern Great Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley as of
this writing. The combined Panhandles have WNW flow aloft, which is
progged to become more NW into the overnight hours tonight. Winds
aloft are currently weak and will remain weak as the main system
stays to the northeast. For today, temperatures are expected to
warm about 10 degrees into the upper 70s to lower 80s as surface
winds return to the south later this afternoon. H7 theta-e
advection remains positive over the area, leaving some chances,
although low for showers and thunderstorms. With the lack of upper
level support storms will have to form off of the higher terrain
and survive coming into the western combined Panhandles this
evening. At this time guidance suggests much of the activity
weakening if not dying as it gets to the Amarillo/Guymon line. A
marginal risk is expected for the far western combined Panhandles
as forecast soundings suggest inverted V soundings. If storms can
get support from subtle perturbations tonights scattered storms
could survive and move through the Panhandles all the way to the
east during the overnight period into Tue morning. However,
guidance suggest a bit of H5 PVA will be traveling more NNW to
SSE than W to E, limiting the eastward extent of storm activity.
By Tue, the main upper level trough and area of low pressure is
progged to begin swinging across the Great Lakes with high pressure
building to the west. Light northwesterly flow aloft will continue
at H5 with high pressure building over the Desert Southwest. With
this high pressure building, temperatures are progged to reach
back into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday afternoon. A bit of
a surface trough is expected to move into the combined Panhandles
Tuesday afternoon leaving the west slightly more dry than the
east. The eastern Panhandles will have some 20 to 30 pops for late
Tuesday afternoon into evening where the better instability may
lay. However, cannot rule out some isolated storms forming across
central to eastern combined Panhandles before moving southeast due
to a shortwave in the northwest flow aloft. At this time PoPs
remain less than 20 in the central to western Panhandles for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Wed, southwest winds at the surface under a surface
trough will help feed in some dry and warm air. H5 heights are only
progged to be around 586 dam, but surface temperatures are expected
to in the triple digits across the combined Panhandles. H85
temperatures are progged to get into the 32 to 34 degrees C range
especially across the central to western combined Panhandles. The
NBM as consistently been giving Amarillo a high around 105.
However, bias correction may be making this too high. A more
reasonable temperature would be around 101 to 103. Therefore, have
blended with CONSRaw and brought Amarillo down to 103. Palo Duro
Canyon is highly likely to need a heat advisory for Wed afternoon.
Depending on how far east the surface trough gets, temperatures
across the eastern Panhandles may struggle to hit the triple
digits due to better surface moisture and not as warm H85
temperatures moving in.
Wed into Thu is looking to be a dry period with little to no chance
for showers and thunderstorms at this time. With pops returning to
the forecast Thu night. Another upper level trough will evolve over
the Upper Mississippi River Valley into Great Lakes allowing for
another cold front to shoot into the area Wed night. This is
expected to bring temperatures down another 10 to 15 degrees for Thu
afternoon. With this system highs are expected to be in the 80s both
for Thu and Fri before returning to the mid to upper 90s for the
weekend. With weak upper level support pops remain low up until Sun
night. There is hints at great H7 moisture returning under high
pressure over the Gulf and subtle disturbances bring thunderstorm
chances back to around 30 or above late Sunday. Right now the better
PoPs favor the eastern combined Panhandles.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
As of this afternoon, the present cloud deck from this morning is
showing signs of breaking down with most of the terminals
returning to more consistent VFR conditions. However, these
conditions may not last as present CAMs do see another round of
showers and thunderstorms developing in the Western Panhandles
around 22 to 23 UTC that are expected to progress south and east
through much of the night time hours. While chances are low, the
potential is present for KAMA and KDHT to experience severe
weather impacts in the form of large hail and damaging winds.
However, the primary impact is likely to be more focused on
reduce visibility due to moderate to heavy rainfall from these
storms. Otherwise, conditions do look to clear as we near the
midnight time frame with a low chance of lingering showers for the
overnight.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260615T1745.txt
