Home
501
FXUS64 KAMA 030912
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
412 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- A pattern change will occur later this week into the weekend
which will result in cooler temperatures, and widespread chances
for rain and potential accumulating snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A moist southwest flow will continue over the Panhandles today as
the upper level low currently centered around the southern NV and
Four Corners area continues to barrel roll south towards the
Mexico/Arizona border. Subtle impulses in the southwest flow will
help enhance the precipitation chances this morning and again
tonight. We do expect a little break in the action this afternoon
as some drier air intrudes briefly before the next moisture surge
tonight and into the weekend. With mostly cloudy skies today the
highs will be in the low to mid 60s. There is a small area of the
northwest Panhandle, that overall is expected to be dry and
today, that might see elevated Fire conditions.
Tonight's moisture surge will be more robust than this past
round, where we see a quarter to a half an inch of rain overnight
through sunrise Friday. The higher amounts are expected in the
southwest and it drops off quite a bit to the northwest
Panhandles. The lower amounts are in the eastern Panhandles. While
there may be a brief break Friday evening towards midnight
Saturday, things will get pretty interesting heading into Saturday
rain/snow wise.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Saturday will be the main story, and then it will be a pretty
quiet extended. As the low that has brought us increased moisture
moves closer, the track is progged to go just south of the
Panhandles over the Lubbock area. As a result the southern
Panhandles will be in the deformation zone and receive enhanced
precipitation. Latest guidance is slowing the cold air arrival a
bit and thus the change over to snow for the southern Panhandles
looks to be more around the 4 to 7 AM time frame. While there
looks to be less moisture content in the north the change over to
snow looks to be closer to midnight. It's just that snow amounts
may be lower now in the north, given the shift in the moisture
track.
As the cold air arrives mid to late morning across the southern
Panhandles we'll have enhanced lift in the mid levels as well as
upslope flow on the south side of the Canadian River. This will
support potential higher snow amount along that highway 60 and
I-40 corridor south of the Canadian River. Given better moisture
to the western Panhandles the higher snow amounts are expected in
western Deaf Smith and Oldham County. But for now were looking at
1 to 3 inches for the Amarillo area and 2 to 4 for the western
Panhandles. Snow is expected to end anywhere from 4pm to 10pm as
it depends on how quickly the moisture moves out.
Sunday after the system exits to the east, we'll still be under
some lingering cooler air and the highs are only in the 50s, and
these highs could be pulled back a bit given that we might have
snow pack to deal with.
Monday through Thursday looks to be pretty open and shut. High
pressure over the western CONUS will build east over the
Panhandles and we'll recover to warm and dry conditions with upper
60s to lower 70s in store for Monday, and Tuesday through Thursday
will be widespread 70s to lower 80s.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 18 to
24 hours. Showers around KAMA should still hold in the VFR range,
but should cigs or vis start to fall we'll amend as needed. Winds
will generally be south to southeast around 10-20kts through about
18z, and then will pick up in the 20-25kt range with gusts up to
35kts from 18-03z. Thereafter, wind should come down around
10-15kts. Overall, southeast is the prevailing direction for
winds. Cig/vis restrictions could start to move into MVFR/IFR
after 00z as more widespread rain showers move into the
Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 63 42 58 30 / 30 70 80 90
Beaver OK 62 40 60 30 / 40 50 70 90
Boise City OK 61 35 56 23 / 20 20 60 90
Borger TX 66 44 61 31 / 30 60 70 90
Boys Ranch TX 65 42 59 30 / 30 40 70 90
Canyon TX 63 41 57 29 / 30 70 80 90
Clarendon TX 62 44 59 34 / 30 90 80 90
Dalhart TX 62 37 56 24 / 20 20 60 90
Guymon OK 62 38 59 26 / 20 30 60 90
Hereford TX 65 40 58 29 / 30 70 80 90
Lipscomb TX 61 43 59 32 / 30 60 70 90
Pampa TX 62 43 60 31 / 30 70 70 90
Shamrock TX 62 43 60 34 / 20 90 80 90
Wellington TX 62 44 60 36 / 30 90 80 90
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250403T0912.txt
210
FXUS64 KAMA 030550
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Light rain showers with strong wind gusts of 40-55 mph possible
tonight. Will not rule out better rainfall as we get further
into the overnight hours, mainly for the eastern Panhandles.
- A pattern change will occur later this week into the weekend
which will result in cooler temperatures, and widespread chances
for rain and potential accumulating snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
After a relatively quiet but breezy day, showers and perhaps a few
storms will be possible later this evening. The synoptic pattern
still finds the panhandles situated beneath southwest flow aloft,
ahead of an approaching system which is set to bring a change of
pace to our weather. Extremely dry air is being ushered to the
region thanks to breezy west-northwest winds, bringing near to
below zero dew pts. Later this evening, winds shift to more
southerly as a weak disturbance passes within the flow, bringing
better moisture and mid-level lift to the area. This will likely
help kick off scattered weak showers across at least the southeast
half of the CWA, mainly after 9 PM. Initially, drier air at the
surface will favor virga with strong wind gust potential, very
similar to last night. A transition to actual rainfall should
occur after midnight when better moisture arrives, with
accumulations of a few hundredths to about a tenth of an inch
possible.
Don't be surprised to see some lingering returns on radar tomorrow
morning, but in general, precipitation should subside for most
the day. Lee cyclogenesis will generate a sfc low to our
northwest, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds
tomorrow afternoon out of the S-SE at 15-25 mph with higher gusts.
Moisture return will persist across the eastern half of the
Panhandles, where dew pts should stay in the upper 30s and low 40s.
The parent system to our northwest will dig south over the
Sonoran Desert tomorrow into the overnight hours, rotating subtle
impulses to the region. This is when our initial wave of high
precipitation chances looks to get going, as rich 700mb theta-e is
advected from the Pacific. Expect showers and weak storms to
spread northward across the Panhandles Thursday evening into
Friday morning (60-90% chance for beneficial rain to begin).
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Friday should find the Panhandles with our first notable round of
much needed April showers (but will they bring May flowers?). As
the closed low progresses towards New Mexico, higher PWATs of 0.5
to 1.0" will spread over the High Plains, providing adequate fuel
for moderate rainfall rates. Cloud cover is progged to keep
temperatures cooler in the 50s as well, aiding in low-level
saturation for more efficient rain production. Precipitation
chances continue Friday afternoon, although there may be a
relative lull in the action until the overnight hours.
Finally, the low itself will be at our doorstep Friday night -
Saturday. This is when lift and moisture should be maximized,
providing medium to high confidence in ground soaking
precipitation in the form of rain and snow. Medium and long range
model trends point to a slight southward shift in the track of the
low, which would still bring quality rainfall to a majority of
the Panhandles, but with the bulls-eye of highest totals shunted
along and south of I-40. A lot of this trend greatly hinges on a
cold front advancing from the NW, which will provide colder
temperatures Friday night through the weekend, but it may also cut
off moisture from north-northwestern Panhandles. In turn, models
have suggested this could limit precipitation totals for these
areas (closer to 0.50" or less). However, If the colder airmass
enters with enough moisture surviving in its wake, a transition
from rain to snow would occur across more of the Panhandles
earlier in the day (which the Euro and Canadian seem to
indicate), supporting a prolonged period of precipitation
Panhandles-wide. In general, probabilities to see 1.00" of total
liquid precip by Sunday morning have somewhat decreased, but
remain promising for a large chunk of the region (40-70% chances
favoring the southeast to south central TX Panhandle).
Focusing on the snow aspect of the forecast, this event is
looking quite similar to our last snow maker back in the beginning
of March: The cold core of the closed low will progress over New
Mexico and pass just to our south during the day Saturday,
temperatures will be very marginal near freezing, and the timing
of its arrival will dictate when snow mixes in with rain or takes
over as the dominant precip type. Just like that March 8 system,
if this low slows down to our west or weakens, temperatures may
become too warm for snow until later in the day. But if the cold
air and storm system arrive early enough, snow should begin to
fall earlier Saturday morning, with temperatures more conducive
for heavier snowfall rates that would produce accumulations of a
dusting to 1-3". It's important to remember though that this is
April, and we have been experiencing warmer temperatures lately.
To reference the early March event once more, this could play out
just the same where we see localized heavy snowfall rates produce
several inches of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces in some
areas, while others only see rain and flurries that melt away
quickly. The most likely hazard at this time appears to be
reduced visibility due to heavy snow rates and 20-30 mph wind
driven snowfall. Despite the warmer ground temperatures, we'll
have to keep a close eye on the potential for slushy, snow
covered roadways, wherever highest snow accumulations occur.
The system departs by Sunday, taking moisture with it and leaving
us with a warming and drier trend next week. It should be a
beautiful stretch of spring to help "green up" the region and
hopefully bring an end to fire weather season.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 18 to
24 hours. Showers around KAMA should still hold in the VFR range,
but should cigs or vis start to fall we'll amend as needed. Winds
will generally be south to southeast around 10-20kts through about
18z, and then will pick up in the 20-25kt range with gusts up to
35kts from 18-03z. Thereafter, wind should come down around
10-15kts. Overall, southeast is the prevailing direction for
winds. Cig/vis restrictions could start to move into MVFR/IFR
after 00z as more widespread rain showers move into the
Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 42 54 30 41 / 70 70 90 100
Beaver OK 41 59 30 43 / 40 70 80 80
Boise City OK 35 53 24 37 / 20 60 90 80
Borger TX 43 59 32 43 / 60 70 90 90
Boys Ranch TX 41 56 30 39 / 50 70 90 100
Canyon TX 41 54 30 40 / 80 80 90 100
Clarendon TX 45 57 35 43 / 80 80 90 90
Dalhart TX 36 53 26 37 / 30 60 90 90
Guymon OK 38 56 27 40 / 30 60 90 80
Hereford TX 39 53 30 39 / 80 80 90 100
Lipscomb TX 43 58 33 43 / 60 80 90 90
Pampa TX 43 56 31 42 / 60 70 90 90
Shamrock TX 44 58 36 45 / 80 80 90 90
Wellington TX 45 58 38 46 / 80 80 90 90
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250403T0550.txt
725
FXUS64 KAMA 022350
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Light rain showers with strong wind gusts of 40-55 mph possible
tonight. Will not rule out better rainfall as we get further
into the overnight hours, mainly for the eastern Panhandles.
- A pattern change will occur later this week into the weekend
which will result in cooler temperatures, and widespread chances
for rain and potential accumulating snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
After a relatively quiet but breezy day, showers and perhaps a few
storms will be possible later this evening. The synoptic pattern
still finds the panhandles situated beneath southwest flow aloft,
ahead of an approaching system which is set to bring a change of
pace to our weather. Extremely dry air is being ushered to the
region thanks to breezy west-northwest winds, bringing near to
below zero dew pts. Later this evening, winds shift to more
southerly as a weak disturbance passes within the flow, bringing
better moisture and mid-level lift to the area. This will likely
help kick off scattered weak showers across at least the southeast
half of the CWA, mainly after 9 PM. Initially, drier air at the
surface will favor virga with strong wind gust potential, very
similar to last night. A transition to actual rainfall should
occur after midnight when better moisture arrives, with
accumulations of a few hundredths to about a tenth of an inch
possible.
Don't be surprised to see some lingering returns on radar tomorrow
morning, but in general, precipitation should subside for most
the day. Lee cyclogenesis will generate a sfc low to our
northwest, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds
tomorrow afternoon out of the S-SE at 15-25 mph with higher gusts.
Moisture return will persist across the eastern half of the
Panhandles, where dew pts should stay in the upper 30s and low 40s.
The parent system to our northwest will dig south over the
Sonoran Desert tomorrow into the overnight hours, rotating subtle
impulses to the region. This is when our initial wave of high
precipitation chances looks to get going, as rich 700mb theta-e is
advected from the Pacific. Expect showers and weak storms to
spread northward across the Panhandles Thursday evening into
Friday morning (60-90% chance for beneficial rain to begin).
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Friday should find the Panhandles with our first notable round of
much needed April showers (but will they bring May flowers?). As
the closed low progresses towards New Mexico, higher PWATs of 0.5
to 1.0" will spread over the High Plains, providing adequate fuel
for moderate rainfall rates. Cloud cover is progged to keep
temperatures cooler in the 50s as well, aiding in low-level
saturation for more efficient rain production. Precipitation
chances continue Friday afternoon, although there may be a
relative lull in the action until the overnight hours.
Finally, the low itself will be at our doorstep Friday night -
Saturday. This is when lift and moisture should be maximized,
providing medium to high confidence in ground soaking
precipitation in the form of rain and snow. Medium and long range
model trends point to a slight southward shift in the track of the
low, which would still bring quality rainfall to a majority of
the Panhandles, but with the bulls-eye of highest totals shunted
along and south of I-40. A lot of this trend greatly hinges on a
cold front advancing from the NW, which will provide colder
temperatures Friday night through the weekend, but it may also cut
off moisture from north-northwestern Panhandles. In turn, models
have suggested this could limit precipitation totals for these
areas (closer to 0.50" or less). However, If the colder airmass
enters with enough moisture surviving in its wake, a transition
from rain to snow would occur across more of the Panhandles
earlier in the day (which the Euro and Canadian seem to
indicate), supporting a prolonged period of precipitation
Panhandles-wide. In general, probabilities to see 1.00" of total
liquid precip by Sunday morning have somewhat decreased, but
remain promising for a large chunk of the region (40-70% chances
favoring the southeast to south central TX Panhandle).
Focusing on the snow aspect of the forecast, this event is
looking quite similar to our last snow maker back in the beginning
of March: The cold core of the closed low will progress over New
Mexico and pass just to our south during the day Saturday,
temperatures will be very marginal near freezing, and the timing
of its arrival will dictate when snow mixes in with rain or takes
over as the dominant precip type. Just like that March 8 system,
if this low slows down to our west or weakens, temperatures may
become too warm for snow until later in the day. But if the cold
air and storm system arrive early enough, snow should begin to
fall earlier Saturday morning, with temperatures more conducive
for heavier snowfall rates that would produce accumulations of a
dusting to 1-3". It's important to remember though that this is
April, and we have been experiencing warmer temperatures lately.
To reference the early March event once more, this could play out
just the same where we see localized heavy snowfall rates produce
several inches of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces in some
areas, while others only see rain and flurries that melt away
quickly. The most likely hazard at this time appears to be
reduced visibility due to heavy snow rates and 20-30 mph wind
driven snowfall. Despite the warmer ground temperatures, we'll
have to keep a close eye on the potential for slushy, snow
covered roadways, wherever highest snow accumulations occur.
The system departs by Sunday, taking moisture with it and leaving
us with a warming and drier trend next week. It should be a
beautiful stretch of spring to help "green up" the region and
hopefully bring an end to fire weather season.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Latest runs of the CAMs continue to see showers push across the
Southern and Eastern Panhandles tonight into early Thursday
morning. At this time, KAMA looks to be the primary focus for
impacts to our three terminals with best guess seeing showers form
as early as 9 to 10 PM with chances only increasing after
midnight. Should showers form during the overnight, expectations
are for enough moisture to be present for light rain that could
take KAMA down to MVFR level. However, an earlier start may lead
to more virga present rather than rain with winds becoming gusty
and erratic. Otherwise, conditions do look to breakdown around
sunrise for Thursday. Meanwhile, KDHT and KGUY should hold at VFR
conditions for the overnight with only vicinity showers at worst.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 44 68 42 54 / 50 20 80 80
Beaver OK 42 66 41 59 / 40 40 50 80
Boise City OK 33 65 35 53 / 0 20 20 70
Borger TX 46 71 43 59 / 50 30 70 80
Boys Ranch TX 44 70 41 56 / 30 20 60 80
Canyon TX 44 68 41 54 / 50 20 80 80
Clarendon TX 47 68 45 57 / 50 20 90 80
Dalhart TX 35 65 36 53 / 10 10 40 80
Guymon OK 37 67 38 56 / 20 30 30 70
Hereford TX 41 68 39 53 / 40 20 80 80
Lipscomb TX 45 65 43 58 / 50 30 60 80
Pampa TX 45 67 43 56 / 50 30 80 80
Shamrock TX 46 67 44 58 / 50 20 80 80
Wellington TX 48 68 45 58 / 40 20 80 80
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250402T2350.txt
476
FXUS64 KAMA 021955
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
255 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Light rain showers with strong wind gusts of 40-55 mph possible
tonight. Will not rule out better rainfall as we get further
into the overnight hours, mainly for the eastern Panhandles.
- A pattern change will occur later this week into the weekend
which will result in cooler temperatures, and widespread chances
for rain and potential accumulating snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
After a relatively quiet but breezy day, showers and perhaps a few
storms will be possible later this evening. The synoptic pattern
still finds the panhandles situated beneath southwest flow aloft,
ahead of an approaching system which is set to bring a change of
pace to our weather. Extremely dry air is being ushered to the
region thanks to breezy west-northwest winds, bringing near to
below zero dew pts. Later this evening, winds shift to more
southerly as a weak disturbance passes within the flow, bringing
better moisture and mid-level lift to the area. This will likely
help kick off scattered weak showers across at least the
southeast half of the CWA, mainly after 9 PM. Initially, drier air
at the surface will favor virga with strong wind gust potential,
very similar to last night. A transition to actual rainfall should
occur after midnight when better moisture arrives, with
accumulations of a few hundredths to about a tenth of an inch
possible.
Don't be surprised to see some lingering returns on radar tomorrow
morning, but in general, precipitation should subside for most
the day. Lee cyclogenesis will generate a sfc low to our
northwest, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds
tomorrow afternoon out of the S-SE at 15-25 mph with higher gusts.
Moisture return will persist across the eastern half of the
Panhandles, where dew pts should stay in the upper 30s and low 40s.
The parent system to our northwest will dig south over the
Sonoran Desert tomorrow into the overnight hours, rotating subtle
impulses to the region. This is when our initial wave of high
precipitation chances looks to get going, as rich 700mb theta-e is
advected from the Pacific. Expect showers and weak storms to
spread northward across the Panhandles Thursday evening into
Friday morning (60-90% chance for beneficial rain to begin).
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Friday should find the Panhandles with our first notable round of
much needed April showers (but will they bring May flowers?). As
the closed low progresses towards New Mexico, higher PWATs of 0.5
to 1.0" will spread over the High Plains, providing adequate fuel
for moderate rainfall rates. Cloud cover is progged to keep
temperatures cooler in the 50s as well, aiding in low-level
saturation for more efficient rain production. Precipitation
chances continue Friday afternoon, although there may be a
relative lull in the action until the overnight hours.
Finally, the low itself will be at our doorstep Friday night -
Saturday. This is when lift and moisture should be maximized,
providing medium to high confidence in ground soaking
precipitation in the form of rain and snow. Medium and long range
model trends point to a slight southward shift in the track of the
low, which would still bring quality rainfall to a majority of
the Panhandles, but with the bulls-eye of highest totals shunted
along and south of I-40. A lot of this trend greatly hinges on a
cold front advancing from the NW, which will provide colder
temperatures Friday night through the weekend, but it may also cut
off moisture from north-northwestern Panhandles. In turn, models
have suggested this could limit precipitation totals for these
areas (closer to 0.50" or less). However, If the colder airmass
enters with enough moisture surviving in its wake, a transition
from rain to snow would occur across more of the Panhandles
earlier in the day (which the Euro and Canadian seem to
indicate), supporting a prolonged period of precipitation
Panhandles-wide. In general, probabilities to see 1.00" of total
liquid precip by Sunday morning have somewhat decreased, but
remain promising for a large chunk of the region (40-70% chances
favoring the southeast to south central TX Panhandle).
Focusing on the snow aspect of the forecast, this event is
looking quite similar to our last snow maker back in the beginning
of March: The cold core of the closed low will progress over New
Mexico and pass just to our south during the day Saturday,
temperatures will be very marginal near freezing, and the timing
of its arrival will dictate when snow mixes in with rain or takes
over as the dominant precip type. Just like that March 8 system,
if this low slows down to our west or weakens, temperatures may
become too warm for snow until later in the day. But if the cold
air and storm system arrive early enough, snow should begin to
fall earlier Saturday morning, with temperatures more conducive
for heavier snowfall rates that would produce accumulations of a
dusting to 1-3". It's important to remember though that this is
April, and we have been experiencing warmer temperatures lately.
To reference the early March event once more, this could play out
just the same where we see localized heavy snowfall rates produce
several inches of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces in some
areas, while others only see rain and flurries that melt away
quickly. The most likely hazard at this time appears to be
reduced visibility due to heavy snow rates and 20-30 mph wind
driven snowfall. Despite the warmer ground temperatures, we'll
have to keep a close eye on the potential for slushy, snow
covered roadways, wherever highest snow accumulations occur.
The system departs by Sunday, taking moisture with it and leaving
us with a warming and drier trend next week. It should be a
beautiful stretch of spring to help "green up" the region and
hopefully bring an end to fire weather season.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Winds will shift from the west northwest to southerly through the
period, mainly at 10-20 kts, with slightly higher gusts this
afternoon and again towards the end of the period tomorrow. Light
showers with gusty winds are possible again tonight near KAMA,
very similar to last night. Overall, VFR sky conditions are
forecast throughout the period.
Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 44 68 42 56 / 50 20 80 80
Beaver OK 40 68 41 57 / 40 40 50 80
Boise City OK 33 64 34 52 / 0 20 20 70
Borger TX 46 71 44 58 / 50 30 70 80
Boys Ranch TX 43 69 41 55 / 30 20 60 80
Canyon TX 44 68 41 54 / 60 20 80 80
Clarendon TX 47 69 45 58 / 50 20 90 80
Dalhart TX 34 65 35 52 / 10 10 40 70
Guymon OK 36 68 38 55 / 20 30 30 70
Hereford TX 41 68 39 54 / 50 20 80 80
Lipscomb TX 45 66 44 56 / 50 30 60 80
Pampa TX 44 68 43 56 / 60 30 80 80
Shamrock TX 47 69 45 58 / 50 20 80 80
Wellington TX 48 69 46 59 / 50 20 80 80
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250402T1955.txt
250
FXUS64 KAMA 021728
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
- Light rain showers to isolated thunderstorms possible tonight.
Will not rule out wetting rain as we get further into the
overnight hours, mainly for the eastern Panhandles. Very strong
wind gusts 40-55 mph could occur with these storms.
- Elevated fire weather conditions today due to very low RH
values for the central and western Panhandles.
- A pattern change will occur late this week into the weekend
which will result in cooler temperatures, widespread chances for
rain, and the potential snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Dryline is well off to the east and with the front through the
area west to northwest flow will usher in drier air for a good
chunk of the Panhandles. Highs will be cooler today, but still in
the 60s to lower 70s. Main upper trough is diving down over
southern Nevada and that southwest flow ahead is what's keeping
the mild conditions going for today and again tomorrow. But we are
starting to tap into some mid level moisture and with subtle
waves of disturbances embedded in that southwest flow, it looks
like we'll be able to pull off some showers and storms again
tonight. They will be pretty similar to the storms we just had
this past evening as about 100-200 J/kg of elevated CAPE around
the 500mb region and ample lift from the shortwave, with a strong
inverted V sounding to support very strong to possibly isolated
damaging wind gusts. That will be how the pattern starts off, but
the moisture column is expected to saturate a bit more through the
night and we may transition to more of just showers to storms
with some light to moderate rainfall in the mid to early morning
hours.
Highs on Thursday look to be just a bit cooler than we expect this
afternoon. Dry southwest flow will continue as we don't expect
much rain, other than maybe some lingering morning showers. As we
head into Thursday night we'll start tapping into that Gulf
moisture a lot more and the PWAT's will be on the rise to about
0.70-0.90". Pops will begin to pick up Thursday night into Friday
and by Friday morning nearly all Panhandles will be >80% chance of
rain.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Friday and Saturday will be quite active as the upper trough
continues to track southeast and looks to be centered down near
the El Paso, TX area. This will continue to pull up more moisture
to the Panhandle, added to it the subtle impulse waves that will
add some enhanced forcing and lift, as well as favorable exit
region of the upper level jet and we may manage to pick up well
over an inch of liquid for most of the Panhandles when the event
is done and over. The biggest challenge with this event will be
determining the winter impacts and just how much of an impact it
will be, as we monitor this cold air push from the north, and how
deep it will be.
As it stands, cold enough air for most areas to change over to
snow as early as midnight Friday night across the north and
potentially around 6-8AM on Saturday across the south. As it
stands model soundings support nearly 12 hours of light to
moderate snow. Should this pan out, would argue that despite it
being April and the higher sun angle, minor to moderate impacts
from accumulating snow are certainly possible. And given the
projected path of the disturbance to the northeast and be centered
over Lubbock Saturday evening, puts the Panhandles in a good
position to be under the deformation zone and pick up quite a bit
of moisture, possibly in the form of all snow. Right now the
probability of exceeding 1" of snow for everything north and west
of the HWY 60 corridor is about 70 percent. Latest guidance is
bringing the higher impacts to the southwest Panhandles, and that
falls well in line with that deformation band of precipitation
that looks to impact that area.
This will be a short lived winter system as we move into Sunday
temperatures will be back in the 50s, and then we'll transition
to high pressure and warmer temperatures back in the mid 60s to
start next week. By mid next week we'll be mostly in the 70s.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Winds will shift from the west northwest to southerly through the
period, mainly at 10-20 kts, with slightly higher gusts this
afternoon and again towards the end of the period tomorrow. Light
showers with gusty winds are possible again tonight near KAMA,
very similar to last night. Overall, VFR sky conditions are
forecast throughout the period.
Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 44 68 42 56 / 50 20 80 80
Beaver OK 40 68 41 57 / 40 40 50 80
Boise City OK 33 64 34 52 / 0 20 20 70
Borger TX 46 71 44 58 / 50 30 70 80
Boys Ranch TX 43 69 41 55 / 30 20 60 80
Canyon TX 44 68 41 54 / 60 20 80 80
Clarendon TX 47 69 45 58 / 50 20 90 80
Dalhart TX 34 65 35 52 / 10 10 40 70
Guymon OK 36 68 38 55 / 20 30 30 70
Hereford TX 41 68 39 54 / 50 20 80 80
Lipscomb TX 45 66 44 56 / 50 30 60 80
Pampa TX 44 68 43 56 / 60 30 80 80
Shamrock TX 47 69 45 58 / 50 20 80 80
Wellington TX 48 69 46 59 / 50 20 80 80
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250402T1728.txt
154
FXUS64 KAMA 021149
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
649 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
-Light rain showers to isolated thunderstorms possible tonight.
Will not rule out wetting rain as we get further into the
overnight hours, mainly for the eastern Panhandles. Very strong
wind gusts 40-55 mph could occur with these storms.
-Elevated fire weather conditions today due to very low RH values
for the central and western Panhandles.
- A pattern change will occur late this week into the weekend
which will result in cooler temperatures, widespread chances for
rain, and the potential snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Dryline is well off to the east and with the front through the
area west to northwest flow will usher in drier air for a good
chunk of the Panhandles. Highs will be cooler today, but still in
the 60s to lower 70s. Main upper trough is diving down over
southern Nevada and that southwest flow ahead is what's keeping
the mild conditions going for today and again tomorrow. But we are
starting to tap into some mid level moisture and with subtle
waves of disturbances embedded in that southwest flow, it looks
like we'll be able to pull off some showers and storms again
tonight. They will be pretty similar to the storms we just had
this past evening as about 100-200 J/kg of elevated CAPE around
the 500mb region and ample lift from the shortwave, with a strong
inverted V sounding to support very strong to possibly isolated
damaging wind gusts. That will be how the pattern starts off, but
the moisture column is expected to saturate a bit more through the
night and we may transition to more of just showers to storms
with some light to moderate rainfall in the mid to early mo
-Low to moderate chances to see some low end measurable rain, not
a wetting rain, across the southeastern combined Panhandles
tomorrow night.rning
hours.
Highs on Thursday look to be just a bit cooler than we expect this
afternoon. Dry southwest flow will continue as we don't expect
much rain, other than maybe some lingering morning showers. As we
head into Thursday night we'll start tapping into that Gulf
moisture a lot more and the PWAT's will be on the rise to about
0.70-0.90". Pops will begin to pick up Thursday night into Friday
and by Friday morning nearly all Panhandles will be >80% chance of
rain.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Friday and Saturday will be quite active as the upper trough
continues to track southeast and looks to be centered down near
the El Paso, TX area. This will continue to pull up more moisture
to the Panhandle, added to it the subtle impulse waves that will
add some enhanced forcing and lift, as well as favorable exit
region of the upper level jet and we may manage to pick up well
over an inch of liquid for most of the Panhandles when the event
is done and over. The biggest challenge with this event will be
determining the winter impacts and just how much of an impact it
will be, as we monitor this cold air push from the north, and how
deep it will be.
As it stands, cold enough air for most areas to change over to
snow as early as midnight Friday night across the north and
potentially around 6-8AM on Saturday across the south. As it
stands model soundings support nearly 12 hours of light to
moderate snow. Should this pan out, would argue that despite it
being April and the higher sun angle, minor to moderate impacts
from accumulating snow are certainly possible. And given the
projected path of the disturbance to the northeast and be centered
over Lubbock Saturday evening, puts the Panhandles in a good
position to be under the deformation zone and pick up quite a bit
of moisture, possibly in the form of all snow. Right now the
probability of exceeding 1" of snow for everything north and west
of the HWY 60 corridor is about 70 percent. Latest guidance is
bringing the higher impacts to the southwest Panhandles, and that
falls well in line with that deformation band of precipitation
that looks to impact that area.
This will be a short lived winter system as we move into Sunday
temperatures will be back in the 50s, and then we'll transition
to high pressure and warmer temperatures back in the mid 60s to
start next week. By mid next week we'll be mostly in the 70s.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. Winds will
be in the 15kt range, with possible gusts to 25kts and out of the
west to northwest through about 00z. Thereafter they will come
around in the 10-15kt range to a more southerly direction. Cigs
overall will be mainly mid and high clouds in the SCT-BKN range.
KAMA will see some -SHRA and may even see some -TSRA after 03z
tonight. Currently no mention of -TSRA as confidence in thunder is
not high enough at this time.
Weber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 67 44 68 42 / 0 40 10 80
Beaver OK 68 40 68 41 / 0 30 30 50
Boise City OK 61 33 64 34 / 0 10 10 20
Borger TX 70 46 71 44 / 0 40 10 70
Boys Ranch TX 67 43 69 41 / 0 20 10 70
Canyon TX 67 44 68 41 / 0 50 10 80
Clarendon TX 71 47 69 45 / 0 60 10 80
Dalhart TX 63 34 65 35 / 0 10 10 40
Guymon OK 66 36 68 38 / 0 10 20 40
Hereford TX 66 41 68 39 / 0 40 10 80
Lipscomb TX 69 45 66 44 / 0 50 20 60
Pampa TX 68 44 68 43 / 0 50 10 70
Shamrock TX 72 47 69 45 / 0 60 10 70
Wellington TX 74 48 69 46 / 0 60 10 70
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250402T1149.txt
