Home
126
FXUS64 KAMA 091109
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
609 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
- Active weather looks to continue with chances for shower and
thunderstorms into next weekend. However, the severe threat
looks more limited compared to the last several days.
- A warming trend can be expected through the week, starting below
normal early in the week but going above normal by the weekend
(60-80% chance for 90+ degrees by Friday).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
The latest upper level analysis reveals broad trough centered over
MN with ridging over the Pac NW supporting northwest flow over the
central and southern plains. The MCS that got started in the high
plains is now moving through north Texas and the Hill Country. The
last of a few lingering showers are now dissipating as drier air
and subsidence works its way in behind the cold front.
For today, things look a lot lower key compared to the last
several. A minor disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft
will generate a few storms on the higher terrain this afternoon,
but how far east this will make it is in question due to the more
limited low level moisture and generally worked over airmass
behind the cold front. That said, surface winds are expected to
switch back to southerly this evening and may provide just enough
moisture advection to support a storm or two as far east as AMA,
but only 20-30% of the HREF members bring a 0.01" that far east.
Hereford has a better chance with 60% of the ensembles bring 0.01"
by midnight tomorrow night. In any case, severe parameters are
limited with generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-25 kts of
effective shear, so storms should tend to be more summertime like
with single to multicell modes quickly becoming outflow dominant.
Some gusty winds mostly less than 55 mph and small hail is the
most likely outcome for the stronger cells which may move into our far
southwest zones before dissipating.
For tomorrow, ridging begins to fill in across the plains with a
weak southern steam trough traversing the Desert Southwest. This
minor wave will be the catalyst for additional storm development
Tuesday possibly into Wednesday depending on it's track (currently
favors the southern Panhandles more than the north). Again,
overall severe parameters don't look terribly impressive, but a
rogue severe storm or two is not out of the question. Temperatures
should continue to run in the low 80s which is below normal.
Ward
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Latest ensembles data shows upper level ridging building across
the Desert Southwest towards the end of the week into the weekend.
This will result in height rises for the area and a notable
warming trend (NBM probabilities for 90+ degrees at 60-80% by the
weekend, with 100+ degrees at 10-20%). The current placement of
the mean 500mb ridge will continue to support at least periods of
northwest flow aloft and thus thunderstorm chances will remain in
the forecast. There are some indications that moisture, shear, and
instability will be on the increase Friday into the weekend which
could spell more severe weather chances.
Ward
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Any MVFR cigs this morning have been brief as cloud cover has
generally been on the decrease over the last 1-2 hours. This trend
should continue through the morning with VFR being dominant at all
sites by 14z. Winds are going to be mainly out of a north or
northeasterly direction until this evening when light southerly
winds will resume. There is a low chance (10-20%) for thunderstorm
to impact KAMA and/or KDHT this evening. Gusty outflow winds from
the storms are more likely.
Ward
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 79 60 81 60 / 10 20 10 30
Beaver OK 84 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 80 56 84 57 / 10 10 10 10
Borger TX 82 62 86 63 / 0 10 10 20
Boys Ranch TX 80 60 83 60 / 10 20 20 30
Canyon TX 79 59 80 59 / 10 20 20 40
Clarendon TX 80 62 80 62 / 0 10 10 30
Dalhart TX 78 56 80 56 / 10 20 10 20
Guymon OK 82 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 10
Hereford TX 79 59 81 59 / 20 30 30 40
Lipscomb TX 82 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 10
Pampa TX 79 61 82 62 / 0 10 10 20
Shamrock TX 82 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 20
Wellington TX 83 64 84 63 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250609T1109.txt
771
FXUS64 KAMA 090657
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
157 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
- Active weather looks to continue with chances for shower and
thunderstorms into next weekend. However, the severe threat
looks more limited compared to the last several days.
- A warming trend can be expected through the week, starting below
normal early in the week but going above normal by the weekend
(60-80% chance for 90+ degrees by Friday).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
The latest upper level analysis reveals broad trough centered over
MN with ridging over the Pac NW supporting northwest flow over the
central and southern plains. The MCS that got started in the high
plains is now moving through north Texas and the Hill Country. The
last of a few lingering showers are now dissipating as drier air
and subsidence works its way in behind the cold front.
For today, things look a lot lower key compared to the last
several. A minor disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft
will generate a few storms on the higher terrain this afternoon,
but how far east this will make it is in question due to the more
limited low level moisture and generally worked over airmass
behind the cold front. That said, surface winds are expected to
switch back to southerly this evening and may provide just enough
moisture advection to support a storm or two as far east as AMA,
but only 20-30% of the HREF members bring a 0.01" that far east.
Hereford has a better chance with 60% of the ensembles bring 0.01"
by midnight tomorrow night. In any case, severe parameters are
limited with generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-25 kts of
effective shear, so storms should tend to be more summertime like
with single to multicell modes quickly becoming outflow dominant.
Some gusty winds mostly less than 55 mph and small hail is the
most likely outcome for the stronger cells which may move into our far
southwest zones before dissipating.
For tomorrow, ridging begins to fill in across the plains with a
weak southern steam trough traversing the Desert Southwest. This
minor wave will be the catalyst for additional storm development
Tuesday possibly into Wednesday depending on it's track (currently
favors the southern Panhandles more than the north). Again,
overall severe parameters don't look terribly impressive, but a
rogue severe storm or two is not out of the question. Temperatures
should continue to run in the low 80s which is below normal.
Ward
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Latest ensembles data shows upper level ridging building across
the Desert Southwest towards the end of the week into the weekend.
This will result in height rises for the area and a notable
warming trend (NBM probabilities for 90+ degrees at 60-80% by the
weekend, with 100+ degrees at 10-20%). The current placement of
the mean 500mb ridge will continue to support at least periods of
northwest flow aloft and thus thunderstorm chances will remain in
the forecast. There are some indications that moisture, shear, and
instability will be on the increase Friday into the weekend which
could spell more severe weather chances.
Ward
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Thunderstorm activity has moved out of the area, but we will
continue to watch for very isolated development through about 12z
(~10% chance). Otherwise, some MVFR cigs may try to develop this
morning with limited coverage. This potential will exist through
about 12z when VFR conditions should prevail. Winds are going to
be mainly out of a northerly direction until this evening when
light southerly winds will resume. There is a low chance (10-20%)
for thunderstorm to impact KAMA and/or KDHT this evening. Gusty
outflow winds from the storms are more likely.
Ward
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 78 59 81 60 / 20 10 10 30
Beaver OK 83 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 80 56 83 57 / 20 10 0 0
Borger TX 83 61 86 63 / 10 10 10 20
Boys Ranch TX 80 59 83 60 / 20 20 20 20
Canyon TX 79 59 81 59 / 20 20 20 40
Clarendon TX 80 61 81 62 / 10 10 10 30
Dalhart TX 78 56 82 56 / 20 20 10 10
Guymon OK 81 58 86 59 / 10 0 0 0
Hereford TX 80 58 82 59 / 30 20 30 40
Lipscomb TX 83 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 10
Pampa TX 79 61 82 62 / 10 10 10 20
Shamrock TX 81 61 83 62 / 10 0 0 20
Wellington TX 83 62 84 63 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250609T0657.txt
631
FXUS64 KAMA 090542
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
- Active weather looks to continue into next week with chances for
shower and thunderstorms into next weekend. However, the severe
threat looks more limited compared to the last several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Today continues to trend as another good set up for severe
weather as models see upper-level flow shift northwesterly with
the movement of a broad trough up in the Midwest. Meanwhile,
latest form the CAMs continues to see a trend of very high MLCAPE
values with some portions of the Panhandles possibly peaking at
over 4000 J/kg. This instability combine with effective bulk shear
pushing the 50 to 60 kt range could easily see large and
destructive hail up to 5 inches in diameter with any discrete
cells. Added to this destructive hail will also be the potential
for very strong straight line winds with many of the CAMs still
suggesting that cells will congeal into a line thanks to a
disturbance pushing in from the north. As for the tornado threat,
latest CAMs do still see certain ingredient in play for the day,
such as 3CAPE values above 100 J/kg, low LCL heights, and 0 to 3km
shear above 20 kt. However, the lack of 0 to 1 km shear has
confidence on the lower end when it comes to any discrete
supercells. Instead the threat may be more prevalent once storms
congeal in tow a line later this afternoon thanks to the present 0
to 3km shear. Meanwhile on the flooding side, models are
expecting for PWAT values to rebound with the all locations above
an inch. What will need be watch is the eastern half of the
Panhandles where values rise even further with some locations near
the Southeastern Panhandles nearing 2 inch mark. It should also
be noted that, grounds are already decently saturated from the
prior week of activity that could make it much more prone to
flooding.
As for the uncertainties for today, one of the biggest continues
ride on the movement cold front following the trough to our north.
Prior model runs have suggested that this front may stall in
Kansas, however, the latest CAMS have also seen it push into the
Panhandles sometime Sunday. If the front does pass then severe
weather will heavily degrade with activity quick to fall off for
the overnight. However if it does stall, then there is potential
to see similar conditions to last night where we see thunderstorms
present clear into Monday morning. Other factors that seem to
already be coming into play is the presence of a secondary short-
wave. The leading edge of this short-wave is currently utilizing a
present deep source of moisture present in the NE, which has
allowed these storms to form. What has been interesting is that
behind this wave is a pocket of drier and more stable air that
could hinder chances in the southwestern Panhandles. Still the
another short-wave is still expected to force the present stalled
cold front out of the NW and be the main catalyst for the severe
weather we have been expecting later this afternoon.
Moving into Monday will see the present northwesterly upper-level
flow continue with another chance at showers and thunderstorms to
follow for the afternoon and evening. However, latest analysis of
the current CAMs are not presence are very strong ingredient most
likely from the expected cold frontal passage and activity
expected today. Still there is enough CAPE and wind shear present
that isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can still be present
for the day. Otherwise look for slightly cooler temperatures to
follow for Monday with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Scoleri
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Northwesterly flow looks to stay present as we move into the new
week with model agreement seeing the upper-level trough push into
the Great Lakes Region with a ridge continuing to build over the
Western United States. This upper-level flow is generally
beneficial for the Panhandles to receive active weather as it
allow for quick short-wave disturbances to move across the area
that will produce showers and thunderstorms. Currently, model
agreement looks to agree to the active pattern continuing as we
see short-waves move across each day which will prompt 20 to 40%
chances of precipitation clear into Friday. Of course chances like
these for this time of year with always come with the threat of
severe weather. Regardless, this active pattern does look like it
might have an end with latest models seeing the ridge move over by
this weekend. For now, look for temperatures to stay below our
normal with afternoon highs in the 70s to 80s.
Scoleri
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Thunderstorm activity has moved out of the area, but we will
continue to watch for very isolated development through about 12z
(~10% chance). Otherwise, some MVFR cigs may try to develop this
morning with limited coverage. This potential will exist through
about 12z when VFR conditions should prevail. Winds are going to
be mainly out of a northerly direction until this evening when
light southerly winds will resume. There is a low chance (10-20%)
for thunderstorm to impact KAMA and/or KDHT this evening. Gusty
outflow winds from the storms are more likely.
Ward
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 78 59 81 60 / 20 10 10 30
Beaver OK 83 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 80 56 83 57 / 20 10 0 0
Borger TX 83 61 86 63 / 10 10 10 20
Boys Ranch TX 80 59 83 60 / 20 20 20 20
Canyon TX 79 59 81 59 / 20 20 20 40
Clarendon TX 80 61 81 62 / 10 10 10 30
Dalhart TX 78 56 82 56 / 20 20 10 10
Guymon OK 81 58 86 59 / 10 0 0 0
Hereford TX 80 58 82 59 / 30 20 30 40
Lipscomb TX 83 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 10
Pampa TX 79 61 82 62 / 10 10 10 20
Shamrock TX 81 61 83 62 / 10 0 0 20
Wellington TX 83 62 84 63 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250609T0542.txt
144
FXUS64 KAMA 082330
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Present analyses has show that current showers and thunderstorms
seen on radar are the result of short-wave disturbance present
just southwest Hereford, TX. The leading edge of this short-wave
is currently utilizing a present deep source of moisture present
in the NE, which has allowed these storms to form. What has been
interesting is that behind this wave is a pocket of drier and
more stable air that could hinder chances in the southwestern
Panhandles. Still the another short-wave is still expected to
force the present stalled cold front out of the NW and be the main
catalyst for the severe weather we have been expecting later this
afternoon. Latest from the 18Z sounding has suggest that high
CAPE values are play, greater than 4000 J/kg, with CAMs still
suggesting effective bulk shear reaching upwards of 50kt as storms
move southeast. Meanwhile, 0 to 1 km is still trending on a very
low end, which will make it hard for tornadoes to develop off of
discrete cells. However, there is good 0 to 3 km along the frontal
boundary which may create spin ups along the expected squall
line. Still current main threats remain on large and destructive
hail up to 5 inches for any discrete cells followed by strong
straight line winds upwards of 80 to 100 mph along the expect
formation of the line.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
- Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorm activity is
favored this afternoon and through the evening, with all hazards
in play once again. The primary hazards look to be damaging
winds (75+ mph) and giant hail (3.0" - 5.0"). A tornado can't be
ruled out (4-9% chance within 25 miles)
- Active weather looks to continue into next week with chances for
shower and thunderstorms into Friday. However, the severe threat
looks more limited compared to the last several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Today continues to trend as another good set up for severe
weather as models see upper-level flow shift northwesterly with
the movement of a broad trough up in the Midwest. Meanwhile,
latest form the CAMs continues to see a trend of very high MLCAPE
values with some portions of the Panhandles possibly peaking at
over 4000 J/kg. This instability combine with effective bulk shear
pushing the 50 to 60 kt range could easily see large and
destructive hail up to 5 inches in diameter with any discrete
cells. Added to this destructive hail will also be the potential
for very strong straight line winds with many of the CAMs still
suggesting that cells will congeal into a line thanks to a
disturbance pushing in from the north. As for the tornado threat,
latest CAMs do still see certain ingredient in play for the day,
such as 3CAPE values above 100 J/kg, low LCL heights, and 0 to 3km
shear above 20 kt. However, the lack of 0 to 1 km shear has
confidence on the lower end when it comes to any discrete
supercells. Instead the threat may be more prevalent once storms
congeal in tow a line later this afternoon thanks to the present 0
to 3km shear. Meanwhile on the flooding side, models are
expecting for PWAT values to rebound with the all locations above
an inch. What will need be watch is the eastern half of the
Panhandles where values rise even further with some locations near
the Southeastern Panhandles nearing 2 inch mark. It should also
be noted that, grounds are already decently saturated from the
prior week of activity that could make it much more prone to
flooding.
As for the uncertainties for today, one of the biggest continues
ride on the movement cold front following the trough to our north.
Prior model runs have suggested that this front may stall in
Kansas, however, the latest CAMS have also seen it push into the
Panhandles sometime Sunday. If the front does pass then severe
weather will heavily degrade with activity quick to fall off for
the overnight. However if it does stall, then there is potential
to see similar conditions to last night where we see thunderstorms
present clear into Monday morning. Other factors that seem to
already be coming into play is the presence of a secondary short-
wave. The leading edge of this short-wave is currently utilizing a
present deep source of moisture present in the NE, which has
allowed these storms to form. What has been interesting is that
behind this wave is a pocket of drier and more stable air that
could hinder chances in the southwestern Panhandles. Still the
another short-wave is still expected to force the present stalled
cold front out of the NW and be the main catalyst for the severe
weather we have been expecting later this afternoon.
Moving into Monday will see the present northwesterly upper-level
flow continue with another chance at showers and thunderstorms to
follow for the afternoon and evening. However, latest analysis of
the current CAMs are not presence are very strong ingredient most
likely from the expected cold frontal passage and activity
expected today. Still there is enough CAPE and wind shear present
that isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can still be present
for the day. Otherwise look for slightly cooler temperatures to
follow for Monday with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Scoleri
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Northwesterly flow looks to stay present as we move into the new
week with model agreement seeing the upper-level trough push into
the Great Lakes Region with a ridge continuing to build over the
Western United States. This upper-level flow is generally
beneficial for the Panhandles to receive active weather as it
allow for quick short-wave disturbances to move across the area
that will produce showers and thunderstorms. Currently, model
agreement looks to agree to the active pattern continuing as we
see short-waves move across each day which will prompt 20 to 40%
chances of precipitation clear into Friday. Of course chances like
these for this time of year with always come with the threat of
severe weather. Regardless, this active pattern does look like it
might have an end with latest models seeing the ridge move over by
this weekend. For now, look for temperatures to stay below our
normal with afternoon highs in the 70s to 80s.
Scoleri
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
As of early this evening, latest radar was watching multiple
severe thunderstorms be compressed and forced southward by the
incoming cold front. Unfortunately has push KAMA under the gun
with thunderstorms likely to impact the terminal by 00 UTC.
Potential is still present to see large hail, gusty and erratic
winds that could near 60 mph, and torrential rainfall. However,
once the terminal is behind the front, much like KGUY and KDHT,
severe potential will significantly drop off with concern shifting
to linger shower and thunderstorm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 59 78 59 81 / 60 10 10 10
Beaver OK 56 83 58 88 / 20 0 0 0
Boise City OK 54 79 54 84 / 30 20 10 10
Borger TX 60 81 60 86 / 50 10 10 10
Boys Ranch TX 59 80 59 83 / 50 20 10 20
Canyon TX 58 78 58 81 / 60 20 20 20
Clarendon TX 60 78 60 81 / 80 20 10 10
Dalhart TX 55 77 55 81 / 40 20 10 10
Guymon OK 56 81 57 86 / 30 0 0 0
Hereford TX 59 78 58 81 / 50 30 20 20
Lipscomb TX 58 81 59 86 / 50 0 0 0
Pampa TX 59 78 59 82 / 60 10 10 10
Shamrock TX 60 81 60 84 / 80 10 10 0
Wellington TX 62 81 62 84 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ008>010-013>015-
018>020.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250608T2330.txt
749
FXUS64 KAMA 081918
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
218 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Present analyses has show that current showers and thunderstorms
seen on radar are the result of short-wave disturbance present
just southwest Hereford, TX. The leading edge of this short-wave
is currently utilizing a present deep source of moisture present
in the NE, which has allowed these storms to form. What has been
interesting is that behind this wave is a pocket of drier and
more stable air that could hinder chances in the southwestern
Panhandles. Still the another short-wave is still expected to
force the present stalled cold front out of the NW and be the main
catalyst for the severe weather we have been expecting later this
afternoon. Latest from the 18Z sounding has suggest that high
CAPE values are play, greater than 4000 J/kg, with CAMs still
suggesting effective bulk shear reaching upwards of 50kt as storms
move southeast. Meanwhile, 0 to 1 km is still trending on a very
low end, which will make it hard for tornadoes to develop off of
discrete cells. However, there is good 0 to 3 km along the frontal
boundary which may create spin ups along the expected squall
line. Still current main threats remain on large and destructive
hail up to 5 inches for any discrete cells followed by strong
straight line winds upwards of 80 to 100 mph along the expect
formation of the line.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
- Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorm activity is
favored this afternoon and through the evening, with all hazards
in play once again. The primary hazards look to be damaging
winds (75+ mph) and giant hail (3.0" - 5.0"). A tornado can't be
ruled out (4-9% chance within 25 miles)
- Active weather looks to continue into next week with chances for
shower and thunderstorms into Friday. However, the severe threat
looks more limited compared to the last several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Today continues to trend as another good set up for severe
weather as models see upper-level flow shift northwesterly with
the movement of a broad trough up in the Midwest. Meanwhile,
latest form the CAMs continues to see a trend of very high MLCAPE
values with some portions of the Panhandles possibly peaking at
over 4000 J/kg. This instability combine with effective bulk shear
pushing the 50 to 60 kt range could easily see large and
destructive hail up to 5 inches in diameter with any discrete
cells. Added to this destructive hail will also be the potential
for very strong straight line winds with many of the CAMs still
suggesting that cells will congeal into a line thanks to a
disturbance pushing in from the north. As for the tornado threat,
latest CAMs do still see certain ingredient in play for the day,
such as 3CAPE values above 100 J/kg, low LCL heights, and 0 to 3km
shear above 20 kt. However, the lack of 0 to 1 km shear has
confidence on the lower end when it comes to any discrete
supercells. Instead the threat may be more prevalent once storms
congeal in tow a line later this afternoon thanks to the present 0
to 3km shear. Meanwhile on the flooding side, models are
expecting for PWAT values to rebound with the all locations above
an inch. What will need be watch is the eastern half of the
Panhandles where values rise even further with some locations near
the Southeastern Panhandles nearing 2 inch mark. It should also
be noted that, grounds are already decently saturated from the
prior week of activity that could make it much more prone to
flooding.
As for the uncertainties for today, one of the biggest continues
ride on the movement cold front following the trough to our north.
Prior model runs have suggested that this front may stall in
Kansas, however, the latest CAMS have also seen it push into the
Panhandles sometime Sunday. If the front does pass then severe
weather will heavily degrade with activity quick to fall off for
the overnight. However if it does stall, then there is potential
to see similar conditions to last night where we see thunderstorms
present clear into Monday morning. Other factors that seem to
already be coming into play is the presence of a secondary short-
wave. The leading edge of this short-wave is currently utilizing a
present deep source of moisture present in the NE, which has
allowed these storms to form. What has been interesting is that
behind this wave is a pocket of drier and more stable air that
could hinder chances in the southwestern Panhandles. Still the
another short-wave is still expected to force the present stalled
cold front out of the NW and be the main catalyst for the severe
weather we have been expecting later this afternoon.
Moving into Monday will see the present northwesterly upper-level
flow continue with another chance at showers and thunderstorms to
follow for the afternoon and evening. However, latest analysis of
the current CAMs are not presence are very strong ingredient most
likely from the expected cold frontal passage and activity
expected today. Still there is enough CAPE and wind shear present
that isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can still be present
for the day. Otherwise look for slightly cooler temperatures to
follow for Monday with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Scoleri
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Northwesterly flow looks to stay present as we move into the new
week with model agreement seeing the upper-level trough push into
the Great Lakes Region with a ridge continuing to build over the
Western United States. This upper-level flow is generally
beneficial for the Panhandles to receive active weather as it
allow for quick short-wave disturbances to move across the area
that will produce showers and thunderstorms. Currently, model
agreement looks to agree to the active pattern continuing as we
see short-waves move across each day which will prompt 20 to 40%
chances of precipitation clear into Friday. Of course chances like
these for this time of year with always come with the threat of
severe weather. Regardless, this active pattern does look like it
might have an end with latest models seeing the ridge move over by
this weekend. For now, look for temperatures to stay below our
normal with afternoon highs in the 70s to 80s.
Scoleri
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Current radar has seen thunderstorm developing off a weak short
wave boundary that has seen showers and thunderstorms just a
little out of the vicinity of KGUY and KAMA. Meanwhile in the NW
Panhandles, the stalled cold front that is expected to bring much
of the severe weather tonight is starting develop thunderstorms as
well. The front is expected to eventually drift down SE across
the Panhandles over the course of the afternoon and evening hours
and potentially impact terminals with very strong winds, larger
hail, and heavy rainfall. There has been uncertainty on how much
of an impact each terminal received, with currently KGUY having
best chances.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 59 78 59 81 / 60 10 10 10
Beaver OK 56 83 58 88 / 20 0 0 0
Boise City OK 54 79 54 84 / 30 20 10 10
Borger TX 60 81 60 86 / 50 10 10 10
Boys Ranch TX 59 80 59 83 / 50 20 10 20
Canyon TX 58 78 58 81 / 60 20 20 20
Clarendon TX 60 78 60 81 / 80 20 10 10
Dalhart TX 55 77 55 81 / 40 20 10 10
Guymon OK 56 81 57 86 / 30 0 0 0
Hereford TX 59 78 58 81 / 50 30 20 20
Lipscomb TX 58 81 59 86 / 50 0 0 0
Pampa TX 59 78 59 82 / 60 10 10 10
Shamrock TX 60 81 60 84 / 80 10 10 0
Wellington TX 62 81 62 84 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 6 PM this evening to midnight CDT tonight for
TXZ014-015-018>020.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250608T1918.txt
928
FXUS64 KAMA 081817
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
117 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Present analyses has show that current showers and thunderstorms
seen on radar are the result of short-wave disturbance present
just southwest Hereford, TX. The leading edge of this short-wave
is currently utilizing a present deep source of moisture present
in the NE, which has allowed these storms to form. What has been
interesting is that behind this wave is a pocket of drier and
more stable air that could hinder chances in the southwestern
Panhandles. Still the another short-wave is still expected to
force the present stalled cold front out of the NW and be the main
catalyst for the severe weather we have been expecting later this
afternoon. Latest from the 18Z sounding has suggest that high
CAPE values are play, greater than 4000 J/kg, with CAMs still
suggesting effective bulk shear reaching upwards of 50kt as storms
move southeast. Meanwhile, 0 to 1 km is still trending on a very
low end, which will make it hard for tornadoes to develop off of
discrete cells. However, there is good 0 to 3 km along the frontal
boundary which may create spin ups along the expected squall
line. Still current main threats remain on large and destructive
hail up to 5 inches for any discrete cells followed by strong
straight line winds upwards of 80 to 100 mph along the expect
formation of the line.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
- Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorm activity is
favored this afternoon and through the evening, with all hazards
in play once again. The primary hazards look to be damaging
winds (75+ mph) and giant hail (3.0" - 5.0"). A tornado can't be
ruled out (4-9% chance within 25 miles)
- Active weather looks to continue into next week with chances for
shower and thunderstorms into Friday. However, the severe threat
looks more limited compared to the last several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Subtle shortwave in the WV imagery helping produce thunderstorms
in the western TX Panhandle. KAMA shows robust storm near the
state line with additional cells behind an outflow boundary
extending to Channing. These storms will make a push for the I-40
corridor including Amarillo, but increasing MUCIN should result in
a weakening trend here soon. That said, the latest VWP hodograph
from KFDX shows plenty of low level shear and a modest low level
jet which is likely why the storms have survived this long.
We will have to see how long these storms last this morning and
how much they might augment the atmosphere for later today
(including any left over outflow boundaries). The latest numerical
data continues the idea of a extreme instability day as low and mid
level lapse rates steepen in a moist low level environment.
Kinematics are also impressive as jet coupling occurs with the
merging of a southern stream jet max extending from the Baja
region with the northern stream jet associated with a broad
trough developing over the upper midwest. These upper level
features along with minor disturbances embedded in the flow should
provide enough lift for discrete storm development in the
afternoon in the OK and TX Panhandles. A cold front currently
pushing south through Nebraska will be the catalyst for more
expansive storm development and the upscale growth later into the
evening as storms are pushed southeast on increasingly northwest
flow aloft. Effective shear of 40-50 knots will be sufficient for
supercells and CAMS continue to suggest 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE
which is about double what we see on a typical severe day. Any
cell that can remain a discrete supercell will be capable of
extreme hail sizes possibly as large a grape fruit or DVDs. As
storms congeal and grow upscale, the damaging winds threat will
begin to maximize. Some models suggest DCAPE values near 2000 J/kg
which would support straight line winds near 80-100 mph. Also,
while the near surface winds don't look very impressive for a
solid tornado threat, the 0-3 km shear does look sufficient for
a tornado threat associated with any QLCS (squall line). Thus, all
hazards are in play from this afternoon into this evening, and it
is looking like a higher end severe potential compared to typical
severe days. Overall coverage of storms should be greater in the
eastern Panhandles (off Caprock), with uncertainty in coverage
increasing with westward extent (on Caprock). Latest HREF & REFS
have been mainly showing onset timing as early as 2 PM, with most
of the activity moving out of the Panhandles by 10 PM to midnight.
Monday looks much less eventful with only a low chance for storms
in the west which should be sub-severe.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Ridging will be shifting over the central & northern plains early
next week, but a weak southern stream trough should help keep
return flow going for the southern plains. Weak to modest upper
level flow should help keep the severe threat more limited
compared to recent events, but severe weather can't be ruled out
with storm chances most days through the end of next week.
Ward
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Current radar has seen thunderstorm developing off a weak short
wave boundary that has seen showers and thunderstorms just a
little out of the vicinity of KGUY and KAMA. Meanwhile in the NW
Panhandles, the stalled cold front that is expected to bring much
of the severe weather tonight is starting develop thunderstorms as
well. The front is expected to eventually drift down SE across
the Panhandles over the course of the afternoon and evening hours
and potentially impact terminals with very strong winds, larger
hail, and heavy rainfall. There has been uncertainty on how much
of an impact each terminal received, with currently KGUY having
best chances.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 59 78 59 82 / 60 10 10 20
Beaver OK 56 83 58 87 / 20 0 0 0
Boise City OK 54 79 55 84 / 30 20 10 10
Borger TX 60 81 60 86 / 50 10 10 10
Boys Ranch TX 59 80 59 84 / 50 20 10 20
Canyon TX 58 78 58 82 / 60 20 20 20
Clarendon TX 60 78 60 81 / 80 20 10 20
Dalhart TX 55 77 55 81 / 40 20 10 20
Guymon OK 56 81 57 85 / 30 0 0 0
Hereford TX 59 78 58 82 / 50 30 20 30
Lipscomb TX 58 81 59 85 / 50 0 0 0
Pampa TX 59 78 59 82 / 60 10 10 10
Shamrock TX 60 81 60 83 / 80 10 10 10
Wellington TX 62 81 62 84 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250608T1817.txt
516
FXUS64 KAMA 081111
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
611 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
- Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorm activity is
favored this afternoon and through the evening, with all hazards
in play once again. The primary hazards look to be damaging
winds (75+ mph) and giant hail (3.0" - 5.0"). A tornado can't be
ruled out (4-9% chance within 25 miles)
- Active weather looks to continue into next week with chances for
shower and thunderstorms into Friday. However, the severe threat
looks more limited compared to the last several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Subtle shortwave in the WV imagery helping produce thunderstorms
in the western TX Panhandle. KAMA shows robust storm near the
state line with additional cells behind an outflow boundary
extending to Channing. These storms will make a push for the I-40
corridor including Amarillo, but increasing MUCIN should result in
a weakening trend here soon. That said, the latest VWP hodograph
from KFDX shows plenty of low level shear and a modest low level
jet which is likely why the storms have survived this long.
We will have to see how long these storms last this morning and
how much they might augment the atmosphere for later today
(including any left over outflow boundaries). The latest numerical
data continues the idea of a extreme instability day as low and mid
level lapse rates steepen in a moist low level environment.
Kinematics are also impressive as jet coupling occurs with the
merging of a southern stream jet max extending from the Baja
region with the northern stream jet associated with a broad
trough developing over the upper midwest. These upper level
features along with minor disturbances embedded in the flow should
provide enough lift for discrete storm development in the
afternoon in the OK and TX Panhandles. A cold front currently
pushing south through Nebraska will be the catalyst for more
expansive storm development and the upscale growth later into the
evening as storms are pushed southeast on increasingly northwest
flow aloft. Effective shear of 40-50 knots will be sufficient for
supercells and CAMS continue to suggest 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE
which is about double what we see on a typical severe day. Any
cell that can remain a discrete supercell will be capable of
extreme hail sizes possibly as large a grape fruit or DVDs. As
storms congeal and grow upscale, the damaging winds threat will
begin to maximize. Some models suggest DCAPE values near 2000 J/kg
which would support straight line winds near 80-100 mph. Also,
while the near surface winds don't look very impressive for a
solid tornado threat, the 0-3 km shear does look sufficient for
a tornado threat associated with any QLCS (squall line). Thus, all
hazards are in play from this afternoon into this evening, and it
is looking like a higher end severe potential compared to typical
severe days. Overall coverage of storms should be greater in the
eastern Panhandles (off Caprock), with uncertainty in coverage
increasing with westward extent (on Caprock). Latest HREF & REFS
have been mainly showing onset timing as early as 2 PM, with most
of the activity moving out of the Panhandles by 10 PM to midnight.
Monday looks much less eventful with only a low chance for storms
in the west which should be sub-severe.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Ridging will be shifting over the central & northern plains early
next week, but a weak southern stream trough should help keep
return flow going for the southern plains. Weak to modest upper
level flow should help keep the severe threat more limited
compared to recent events, but severe weather can't be ruled out
with storm chances most days through the end of next week.
Ward
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the TAF
cycle outside of MVFR/IFR associated with thunderstorms.
Southerly winds around 10 knots will become northeasterly after
00z. The main concern is the potential for severe thunderstorms.
Scattered to widespread storm development is expected later this
afternoon into this evening. All sites could be affected. Holding
a prob30 for now for +TSRA at all sites which could include giant
hail, damaging winds in excess of 75 mph, and very heavy rain. As
confidence increases on timing and impacts for each terminal,
prevailing groups will be added.
Ward
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 88 59 78 59 / 50 50 20 20
Beaver OK 83 57 83 59 / 60 20 0 0
Boise City OK 85 54 79 55 / 30 30 10 10
Borger TX 91 60 82 61 / 60 50 10 10
Boys Ranch TX 91 59 80 58 / 50 50 20 20
Canyon TX 90 58 77 57 / 40 50 20 20
Clarendon TX 88 60 78 60 / 60 70 20 20
Dalhart TX 86 54 79 54 / 40 40 10 10
Guymon OK 84 56 81 56 / 50 30 0 0
Hereford TX 91 59 77 57 / 30 50 20 30
Lipscomb TX 83 58 81 59 / 60 30 0 0
Pampa TX 85 59 78 59 / 70 60 10 10
Shamrock TX 87 60 80 60 / 70 70 10 10
Wellington TX 89 62 80 61 / 50 80 20 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250608T1111.txt
