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090
FXUS64 KAMA 312304
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
- Scattered thunderstorms expected mainly across the far southern
and southwest Panhandles this evening. Storms may be strong to
severe with wind gusts being the main concern.
- Triple digit heat expected early next week which would be
hazardous for anyone performing strenuous outdoor activities
during the hottest portions of the day.
- Slight storm chances (20 percent) return mainly across the
northwest Panhandles Monday through Wednesday. Lighting and
strong wind gusts would be the primary hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Prefrontal trough has moved through the area and the entire
Panhandle is seeing NW or N winds. The was having no impact on
dewpoints which were in the mid 60s well behind the boundary.
Lower temperatures are more due to clouds and continued isolated
weak showers than the boundary and it was already 103 at the
Dozier and Wellington WT Mesonets at 18 UTC. So the heat advisory
seems on track in the far SE. Seems increasingly likely that
clouds will preclude AMA breaking the 10 day consecutive 100
degree day which was tied yesterday, but stay tuned. The actual
front appears to be may be near Hartley to Pampa to Canadian at
this point, but it is extremely diffuse. Stronger storms today
should occur along the better convergence near the pre-frontal
tough late this afternoon and CAMs have been trending slightly
south with this activity. That said, outflows pushing north from
the initial developing could lead to storms developing closer to
Amarillo. A small complex of storms is expected to push SE out of
NM this evening and this is where the highest POPs are shown
(likely ranges). It is unclear if the eastern edge of this
activity will reach Amarillo where POPs are 30-40 percent and the
gradient from higher POPs to the SW and much lower to the NE is
pretty tight right across the city.
A nice break in the triple digit heat is expected on Saturday
behind this weak front. Highs are expected to remain in the low
to mid 90s, which is still slightly above average. There is a
moisture axis remaining across the far WRN CWA and there is a
chance of thunderstorms in this area as a disturbance rotates
through the region on the backside of a strengthening low centered
across IL. The upper high center will position itself more across
AZ through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
The mid-west low will move east across KY early next week which
allows the ridge to build east across the central and southern
plains once again. This will lead to increasing highs once again
with widespread 100s forecast by Monday. Currently Monday has the
highest probability of 100+ degree temperatures for the entire week
at around 50 percent in the east and west Panhandles, but over 90
percent for north-central and SE areas per the NBM. Ridge roller
S/WV disturbances will encounter a decent monsoon moisture axis next
week leading to chances for storms despite the hot temperatures. NBM
shows slight chances for rain assoc with this activity Tue and Wed
evenings favoring the NW Panhandles. POPs are only around 10 percent
by Thursday, but models are diverging by end of the week regarding
the strength of the ridge and a possible weakness developing over
the Panhandles (per the last few GFS operational runs). If this were
to occur, we can expect better rain chances and slightly lower
temperatures for the end of next week, but there is not a large
contingent of ensemble member on board for this at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs.
Chances for storms near KAMA this evening have diminished, but
still can't be ruled out. Winds will be light and variable or
prevailing out of the north for a majority of the period.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gi
LONG TERM....Gi
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260731T2304.txt
906
FXUS64 KAMA 311834
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
134 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
- Scattered thunderstorms expected mainly across the far southern
and southwest Panhandles this afternoon. Storms may be strong
to severe with wind gusts being the main concern.
- Triple digit heat expected early next week and this would lead
to hazardous conditions for anyone performing strenuous outdoor
activities during the hottest portions of the day.
- There is a slight chance (20 percent) for storms mainly across
the northwest Panhandles Monday through Wednesday and lighting
and strong wind gusts associated with these will produce
hazardous conditions for outdoor activities.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Prefrontal trough has moved through the area and the entire
Panhandle is seeing NW or N winds. The was having no impact on
dewpoints which were in the mid 60s well behind the boundary.
Lower temperatures are more due to clouds and continued isolated
weak showers than the boundary and it was already 103 at the
Dozier and Wellington WT Mesonets at 18 UTC. So the heat advisory
seems on track in the far SE. Seems increasingly likely that
clouds will preclude AMA breaking the 10 day consecutive 100
degree day which was tied yesterday, but stay tuned. The actual
front appears to be may be near Hartley to Pampa to Canadian at
this point, but it is extremely diffuse. Stronger storms today
should occur along the better convergence near the pre-frontal
tough late this afternoon and CAMs have been trending slightly
south with this activity. That said, outflows pushing north from
the initial developing could lead to storms developing closer to
Amarillo. A small complex of storms is expected to push SE out of
NM this evening and this is where the highest POPs are shown
(likely ranges). It is unclear if the eastern edge of this
activity will reach Amarillo where POPs are 30-40 percent and the
gradient from higher POPs to the SW and much lower to the NE is
pretty tight right across the city.
A nice break in the triple digit heat is expected on Saturday
behind this weak front. Highs are expected to remain in the low
to mid 90s, which is still slightly above average. There is a
moisture axis remaining across the far WRN CWA and there is a
chance of thunderstorms in this area as a disturbance rotates
through the region on the backside of a strengthening low centered
across IL. The upper high center will position itself more across
AZ through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
The mid-west low will move east across KY early next week which
allows the ridge to build east across the central and southern
plains once again. This will lead to increasing highs once again
with widespread 100s forecast by Monday. Currently Monday has the
highest probability of 100+ degree temperatures for the entire week
at around 50 percent in the east and west Panhandles, but over 90
percent for north-central and SE areas per the NBM. Ridge roller
S/WV disturbances will encounter a decent monsoon moisture axis next
week leading to chances for storms despite the hot temperatures. NBM
shows slight chances for rain assoc with this activity Tue and Wed
evenings favoring the NW Panhandles. POPs are only around 10 percent
by Thursday, but models are diverging by end of the week regarding
the strength of the ridge and a possible weakness developing over
the Panhandles (per the last few GFS operational runs). If this were
to occur, we can expect better rain chances and slightly lower
temperatures for the end of next week, but there is not a large
contingent of ensemble member on board for this at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Main AVN concern is for TSTMs in the area. Only AMA has high
enough probs to mention as chances are very low at GUY and DHT.
The bulk of the storms are expected to remain SW of Amarillo this
evening, but the NE edge of a small complex will be close enough
to include Prob30. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gittinger
LONG TERM....Gittinger
AVIATION...Gittinger
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260731T1834.txt
282
FXUS64 KAMA 311455
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
955 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
- Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening in
the western and southern Texas Panhandle. Storms may be strong
to severe with wind gusts being the main concern.
- Triple digit heat may return early next week.
- Storms may return to the northwest Panhandles Monday through
Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Initial pre-frontal boundary is working across the region from
north to south. More significant cooling is lagging behind with
the main boundary. This means some areas will heat up decently
despite the initial wind shift. Still, AMA 100 degree streak
could be in jeopardy of ending today given the cloud cover and
boundary, but it should be close. Current forecast is 99 at AMA. Made
a quick update to include Collingsworth County in a heat advisory
as we feel it will still manage 105 given less cloud cover and
potential for some compressional heating along the boundary. Made
additional POP adjustments to include a 20 in the west to handle
activity there and decided to mention all 10 POPs today given the
uncertainty.
Gittinger
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Lingering showers tonight across the northern and central Panhandles
that may manage to clip part of the southern Panhandles before
sunrise. Nothing significant just brief moderate rain and maybe
some wind gusts 25 to 35 mph. The showers tonight will have several
outflow boundaries which should linger somewhere in the southern
Panhandle around the I-40 area. Friday morning we do expect
northerly winds behind a very weak cold front associated with the
back side of a low swinging across the Midwest/Great Lakes region.
South of the outflow boundary we do expect southerly winds to still
be in play, and as the north winds on the back side of the low
collide with the boundary to the south, we should get enhanced
convergence at the surface and decent lift to get showers and storms
to develop. Additionally, we'll be looking at very high LCL's and
inverted V soundings that will probably yield DCAPE values in the
1500-2000 J/kg range with ML CAPE values in the 750-1500 range.
Shear will be reasonable so the severe threat for damaging wind
gusts will be the primary concern. The key issue is, where this will
occur. This boundary if far enough south would put most of the
showers and storms south of I-40 and maybe only the far southern
parts of Randall and Deaf Smith county may be involved. But there
are some suggestions it will be further north, and storms could
develop right over Amarillo. PWAT's of roughly 1.40" and fairly
limited storm motion would support torrential rainfall with these
storms. Should storms end up south of I-40, there still is expected
to be a second round of storms coming off the high terrain of NM
that should move into at least the southwest Panhandles, maybe even
stretch to Amarillo. As the storms are expected to cluster into a
possible MCS during the evening this could become an efficient rain
producer for the southwest Panhandles.
Saturday northerly flow will keep things dry for the most part, but
lingering outflow with more storms that form off the high terrain to
the west could lead to another round of showers and storms, mainly
along the TX/NM border and it could linger in the southwest
Panhandle as well. Right now only about a 20 percent chance these
storms happen so it still may be a quiet day on Saturday. Should
they occur, like on Friday, the areas that storms develop could have
strong damaging winds with ample rainfall as well. Due to the fact
that most of the Panhandles will be under a more northerly flow on
Saturday it appears that most, if not all the Panhandles will manage
to stay below 100, ending the streak. And that may even end today
with the front moving through, but it will still depend on timing if
certain areas can still reach 100.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
We'll continue to watch the high pressure over the Four Corners and
we'll get daily thunderstorms off the high terrain of NM, but
depending on the overall upper flow, or if we can get any
disturbances embedded will enhance or suppress those storm chances.
Right now the focus would continue to be the typical areas, like the
northwest Panhandles, but with enough help maybe they extend further
into the Panhandles. There is some hints midweek that maybe the
upper ridge will brake down from a stronger disturbance to the
north, and that could change quite a bit and expand the area of
precipitation chances. But there is certainly a divergence in
agreement with the long range models as to if we'll still stay
under this hot and dry high pressure system, or get a potential
breakdown that leads to increased precipitation chances. So with
that the pops in the extended will be about par for the course,
either dry, or slight chance to chance in the northwest Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Thunderstorm activity this morning continues to either wane or
transition south of our area. Impacts to the KAMA or KDHT
terminal are unlikely as long as redevelopment does not occur in
our area. Amendments may become necessary at the top of the hour
if thunderstorms persist; however, our confidence higher that we
will continue to clear out instead.
Surface winds this afternoon will become northerly and then
northeasterly behind a front. Thunderstorms will also be able to
generate along this front and potentially impact the KAMA and KDHT
terminals this evening. Yet, latest 06Z model runs suggest
thunderstorm activity has a higher chance of setting up south of
the TAF sites today, leaving thunderstorm chances lower than
previous model runs. PROB30 groups will be maintained for now,
since there are still some uncertainties on the placement of the
front. If the front does move further south today, mentions of
thunder will need to be removed.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ020.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260731T1455.txt
420
FXUS64 KAMA 311127
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
- Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening in
the western and southern Texas Panhandle. Storms may be strong
to severe with wind gusts being the main concern.
- Triple digit heat may return early next week.
- Storms may return to the northwest Panhandles Monday through
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Lingering showers tonight across the northern and central Panhandles
that may manage to clip part of the southern Panhandles before
sunrise. Nothing significant just brief moderate rain and maybe
some wind gusts 25 to 35 mph. The showers tonight will have several
outflow boundaries which should linger somewhere in the southern
Panhandle around the I-40 area. Friday morning we do expect
northerly winds behind a very weak cold front associated with the
back side of a low swinging across the Midwest/Great Lakes region.
South of the outflow boundary we do expect southerly winds to still
be in play, and as the north winds on the back side of the low
collide with the boundary to the south, we should get enhanced
convergence at the surface and decent lift to get showers and storms
to develop. Additionally, we'll be looking at very high LCL's and
inverted V soundings that will probably yield DCAPE values in the
1500-2000 J/kg range with ML CAPE values in the 750-1500 range.
Shear will be reasonable so the severe threat for damaging wind
gusts will be the primary concern. The key issue is, where this will
occur. This boundary if far enough south would put most of the
showers and storms south of I-40 and maybe only the far southern
parts of Randall and Deaf Smith county may be involved. But there
are some suggestions it will be further north, and storms could
develop right over Amarillo. PWAT's of roughly 1.40" and fairly
limited storm motion would support torrential rainfall with these
storms. Should storms end up south of I-40, there still is expected
to be a second round of storms coming off the high terrain of NM
that should move into at least the southwest Panhandles, maybe even
stretch to Amarillo. As the storms are expected to cluster into a
possible MCS during the evening this could become an efficient rain
producer for the southwest Panhandles.
Saturday northerly flow will keep things dry for the most part, but
lingering outflow with more storms that form off the high terrain to
the west could lead to another round of showers and storms, mainly
along the TX/NM border and it could linger in the southwest
Panhandle as well. Right now only about a 20 percent chance these
storms happen so it still may be a quiet day on Saturday. Should
they occur, like on Friday, the areas that storms develop could have
strong damaging winds with ample rainfall as well. Due to the fact
that most of the Panhandles will be under a more northerly flow on
Saturday it appears that most, if not all the Panhandles will manage
to stay below 100, ending the streak. And that may even end today
with the front moving through, but it will still depend on timing if
certain areas can still reach 100.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
We'll continue to watch the high pressure over the Four Corners and
we'll get daily thunderstorms off the high terrain of NM, but
depending on the overall upper flow, or if we can get any
disturbances embedded will enhance or suppress those storm chances.
Right now the focus would continue to be the typical areas, like the
northwest Panhandles, but with enough help maybe they extend further
into the Panhandles. There is some hints midweek that maybe the
upper ridge will brake down from a stronger disturbance to the
north, and that could change quite a bit and expand the area of
precipitation chances. But there is certainly a divergence in
agreement with the long range models as to if we'll still stay
under this hot and dry high pressure system, or get a potential
breakdown that leads to increased precipitation chances. So with
that the pops in the extended will be about par for the course,
either dry, or slight chance to chance in the northwest Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Thunderstorm activity this morning continues to either wane or
transition south of our area. Impacts to the KAMA or KDHT
terminal are unlikely as long as redevelopment does not occur in
our area. Amendments may become necessary at the top of the hour
if thunderstorms persist; however, our confidence higher that we
will continue to clear out instead.
Surface winds this afternoon will become northerly and then
northeasterly behind a front. Thunderstorms will also be able to
generate along this front and potentially impact the KAMA and KDHT
terminals this evening. Yet, latest 06Z model runs suggest
thunderstorm activity has a higher chance of setting up south of
the TAF sites today, leaving thunderstorm chances lower than
previous model runs. PROB30 groups will be maintained for now,
since there are still some uncertainties on the placement of the
front. If the front does move further south today, mentions of
thunder will need to be removed.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260731T1127.txt
865
FXUS64 KAMA 310647
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
- Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening in
the western and southern Texas Panhandle. Storms may be strong
to severe with wind gusts being the main concern.
- Triple digit heat may return early next week.
- Storms may return to the northwest Panhandles Monday through
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Lingering showers tonight across the northern and central Panhandles
that may manage to clip part of the southern Panhandles before
sunrise. Nothing significant just brief moderate rain and maybe
some wind gusts 25 to 35 mph. The showers tonight will have several
outflow boundaries which should linger somewhere in the southern
Panhandle around the I-40 area. Friday morning we do expect
northerly winds behind a very weak cold front associated with the
back side of a low swinging across the Midwest/Great Lakes region.
South of the outflow boundary we do expect southerly winds to still
be in play, and as the north winds on the back side of the low
collide with the boundary to the south, we should get enhanced
convergence at the surface and decent lift to get showers and storms
to develop. Additionally, we'll be looking at very high LCL's and
inverted V soundings that will probably yield DCAPE values in the
1500-2000 J/kg range with ML CAPE values in the 750-1500 range.
Shear will be reasonable so the severe threat for damaging wind
gusts will be the primary concern. The key issue is, where this will
occur. This boundary if far enough south would put most of the
showers and storms south of I-40 and maybe only the far southern
parts of Randall and Deaf Smith county may be involved. But there
are some suggestions it will be further north, and storms could
develop right over Amarillo. PWAT's of roughly 1.40" and fairly
limited storm motion would support torrential rainfall with these
storms. Should storms end up south of I-40, there still is expected
to be a second round of storms coming off the high terrain of NM
that should move into at least the southwest Panhandles, maybe even
stretch to Amarillo. As the storms are expected to cluster into a
possible MCS during the evening this could become an efficient rain
producer for the southwest Panhandles.
Saturday northerly flow will keep things dry for the most part, but
lingering outflow with more storms that form off the high terrain to
the west could lead to another round of showers and storms, mainly
along the TX/NM border and it could linger in the southwest
Panhandle as well. Right now only about a 20 percent chance these
storms happen so it still may be a quiet day on Saturday. Should
they occur, like on Friday, the areas that storms develop could have
strong damaging winds with ample rainfall as well. Due to the fact
that most of the Panhandles will be under a more northerly flow on
Saturday it appears that most, if not all the Panhandles will manage
to stay below 100, ending the streak. And that may even end today
with the front moving through, but it will still depend on timing if
certain areas can still reach 100.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
We'll continue to watch the high pressure over the Four Corners and
we'll get daily thunderstorms off the high terrain of NM, but
depending on the overall upper flow, or if we can get any
disturbances embedded will enhance or suppress those storm chances.
Right now the focus would continue to be the typical areas, like the
northwest Panhandles, but with enough help maybe they extend further
into the Panhandles. There is some hints midweek that maybe the
upper ridge will brake down from a stronger disturbance to the
north, and that could change quite a bit and expand the area of
precipitation chances. But there is certainly a divergence in
agreement with the long range models as to if we'll still stay
under this hot and dry high pressure system, or get a potential
breakdown that leads to increased precipitation chances. So with
that the pops in the extended will be about par for the course,
either dry, or slight chance to chance in the northwest Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Thunderstorms over KDHT to start the TAF period will lead to
possible MVFR conditions, but should quickly return to VFR by 7z.
Elsewhere, mostly VFR conditions for the TAF period, but KDHT and
KAMA could see degraded conditions due to thunderstorms after the
21z period. Prob30s have been noted for this time. Winds will vary
through the TAF period but mainly be in the 10 to 15kt range, but
may gust up to 25kts at times, as we do expect a weak frontal
system to bring more northerly winds in the 12 to 18z time period.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260731T0647.txt
521
FXUS64 KAMA 310530
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
- Thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and through
tonight. A few storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind
gusts being the primary hazard.
- Thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and early
evening in the western and southern Texas Panhandle. Strong
wind gusts cannot be ruled out.
- Triple digit heat may return early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
An upper-level ridge is now situated south/southwest of the
Panhandles, but we are seeing temperatures soar into the 90s to low-
100s as of the early afternoon hours. Given that there will be at
least some mid-level forcing, showers and thunderstorms are favored
to develop in far northeastern New Mexico later this afternoon and
move into the Panhandles. Forecast soundings show an inverted-V
profile with a layer of moisture above it. These conditions will be
favorable for strong downdrafts, epitomized by DCAPE values around
1600-1800 J/kg. Effective shear is favored to be somewhat favorable
for storm organization, 25-30 kts (possibly locally higher), despite
being mostly driven by directional shear. Given the winds aloft
leading to a storm motion of 20-25 kts with the high DCAPE values,
thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 70 mph,
possibly higher given a strong enough updraft. Not too concerned
about the aspect of large hail; temperatures aloft are fairly warm,
and instability looks tall and skinny (suggesting slower updrafts)
and MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 1000 J/kg. Additionally, PWATs are
above normal for this time of year, almost entirely due to the
moisture present above the boundary layer. This will encourage
melting hail if hail is able to develop within a storm.
Thunderstorms are favored to continue through the evening and
potentially even through the night before dissipating soon after
Friday's sunrise.
An outflow boundary may be present across the Panhandles Friday
morning, but it may dissipate before the afternoon. A weak cold
front will move in from the north, potentially as early as the late
morning hours, but certainly through the afternoon. There are some
uncertainties about how far south the front will make it before
stalling out, but the general consensus is somewhere between the
Canadian River Valley and far northwest Texas. The position of the
front will have big implications on where thunderstorms will
develop, which is leading to uncertainty in the forecast for the
Texas Panhandle. If the front stalls out around the Canadian River
Valley, then we could see greater thunderstorm coverage across the
Texas Panhandle. If it pushes further south, then maybe the southern
Texas Panhandle could see a brief window for thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Given local tendencies and decent consistency among
guidance that typically handles fronts well, leaning toward the
latter solution. If thunderstorms do develop in the afternoon, won't
be able to rule out a wind gust up to 60 mph or higher given very
high DCAPE values. Throughout the afternoon, thunderstorms will
develop on the higher terrain of New Mexico and there is a signal
that they could gradually grow into a cluster or MCS. Depending on
where it develops, this activity could dive southeast into the Texas
Panhandle. There is high uncertainty about this round of
thunderstorms and, not only will it depend on where they initially
develop, but will also depend on the position of the cold front.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
The upper-level ridge will significantly shift westward to around
Las Vegas as a positively tilted shortwave moves in from the north
Saturday. There's a low chance (10-25%)for another round of showers
and thunderstorms in the far western Panhandles on Saturday, but dry
air should be moving into the eastern and potentially central
Panhandles, and this dry air may try to exert some (negative)
influence onto any potential development in the western Panhandles.
The most likely scenario is that most, if not all, of the CWA will
stay dry on Saturday. Temperatures will be merely a few degrees
warmer than normal, a welcomed change from the past week and a half.
The upper-level ridge will begin to extend back toward the east on
Sunday and into early next week. This means we will see temperatures
warm back up into the upper-90s to low-100s with likely dry weather.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Thunderstorms over KDHT to start the TAF period will lead to
possible MVFR conditions, but should quickly return to VFR by 7z.
Elsewhere, mostly VFR conditions for the TAF period, but KDHT and
KAMA could see degraded conditions due to thunderstorms after the
21z period. Prob30s have been noted for this time. Winds will vary
through the TAF period but mainly be in the 10 to 15kt range, but
may gust up to 25kts at times, as we do expect a weak frontal
system to bring more northerly winds in the 12 to 18z time period.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260731T0530.txt
