204 
FXUS64 KAMA 111847
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1247 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

-The chance of impactful weather over the next 7 days is very 
 low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

A Spring like start to the short term forecast period with 18Z obs
showing temperatures well into the 60s and 70s. Would not be
surprised for some areas in the western combined Panhandles to
even top out in the lower 80s sometime this afternoon. Elongated 
H500 pattern across the CONUS continues to keep an active weather 
pattern across the northern US with dry conditions for the south 
central and southwestern CONUS. Later tonight, we will watch a
cold front makes it way through all of the Panhandles and will be
south of the Texas Panhandle by tomorrow morning. Light northerly
winds and cooler temperatures will be expected tomorrow, with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s, still slightly
above average for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

High temperatures of mid 50s to mid 60s expected to start the
weekend before our next cold front come barreling through. Latest
11/12Z model and numerical guidance. Going a few degrees below
latest NBM guidance, with decent H850-700 CAA across the eastern
Panhandles on the western periphery of the main cold air 
intrusion. This will result in widespread below average 
temperatures for the Panhandles, but especially for the eastern 
Panhandles with high temperatures not getting out of the 30s. 

These cold temperatures should be short lived as an H500 zonal 
flow returns along with southerly and westerly flow with 
temperatures returning to above normal through the middle of next 
week. Dry conditions should also remain throughout the coming week
under this upper level zonal flow as well. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the north at 5-10 kts
under mostly clear skies. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251211T1847.txt



320 
FXUS64 KAMA 111739
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1139 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - The chance of impactful weather over the next 7 days is very 
   low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

After highs in the 50s yesterday (near normal) the combined 
Panhandles are expected to see quite the warm up with temperatures 
reaching well into the 70s. A surface trough is progged to set up 
over parts of eastern NM into the combined Panhandles allowing for 
H85 temperatures to shoot up to 20 degrees C, warming temps well 
above normal to these temperatures. The pressure gradient is not 
anticipated to steepen very much with surface winds maxing out 
around 15 mph. 

A weak surface low is expected to develop to the northwestern 
combined Panhandles, SE CO, and NE NM later this afternoon. As this 
low progresses southeast and the surface trough pushes off to the 
east with it, another cold front will follow. This front is not 
expected to impact overnight temperatures very much tonight but 
should cause afternoon temps on Friday to maintain around normal in 
the mid 50s with upsloping northeasterly to easterly winds. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Mainly benign and dry weather continues into the 
extended period. Temperatures rebound again on Saturday, primarily 
in the southwestern half of the FA, with a nice warm up above normal 
with highs in the 60s. A backdoor cold front is expected a bit 
earlier now with more of the northeastern half being held back in 
the upper 50s. This time, the cold front is expected to impact 
overnight lows brining them down to near normal in the 20s overnight 
into Sunday morning. Despite winds returning to the south before 
Sunday afternoon, a portion of cooler H85 temperatures is expected 
to stay put across the combined Panhandles holding temperatures in 
the 40s, across the eastern Panhandles, and low to mid 50s in the 
western combined Panhandles. As the upper level pattern holds, with 
troughing to the east and ridging to the west, the Panhandles should 
maintain greater influence from the ridge as afternoon temperatures 
progged to return to the 60s Mon afternoon through Wed afternoon.  

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the north at 5-10 kts
under mostly clear skies. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...29


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251211T1739.txt



307 
FXUS64 KAMA 111103
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
503 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - The chance of impactful weather over the next 7 days is very 
   low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

After highs in the 50s yesterday (near normal) the combined 
Panhandles are expected to see quite the warm up with temperatures 
reaching well into the 70s. A surface trough is progged to set up 
over parts of eastern NM into the combined Panhandles allowing for 
H85 temperatures to shoot up to 20 degrees C, warming temps well 
above normal to these temperatures. The pressure gradient is not 
anticipated to steepen very much with surface winds maxing out 
around 15 mph. 

A weak surface low is expected to develop to the northwestern 
combined Panhandles, SE CO, and NE NM later this afternoon. As this 
low progresses southeast and the surface trough pushes off to the 
east with it, another cold front will follow. This front is not 
expected to impact overnight temperatures very much tonight but 
should cause afternoon temps on Friday to maintain around normal in 
the mid 50s with upsloping northeasterly to easterly winds. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Mainly benign and dry weather continues into the 
extended period. Temperatures rebound again on Saturday, primarily 
in the southwestern half of the FA, with a nice warm up above normal 
with highs in the 60s. A backdoor cold front is expected a bit 
earlier now with more of the northeastern half being held back in 
the upper 50s. This time, the cold front is expected to impact 
overnight lows brining them down to near normal in the 20s overnight 
into Sunday morning. Despite winds returning to the south before 
Sunday afternoon, a portion of cooler H85 temperatures is expected 
to stay put across the combined Panhandles holding temperatures in 
the 40s, across the eastern Panhandles, and low to mid 50s in the 
western combined Panhandles. As the upper level pattern holds, with 
troughing to the east and ridging to the west, the Panhandles should 
maintain greater influence from the ridge as afternoon temperatures 
progged to return to the 60s Mon afternoon through Wed afternoon.  

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through at least the next 24 hours. A cold
front will move in from the north tonight but winds will remain 
at around 10 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...52


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251211T1103.txt



650 
FXUS64 KAMA 110523
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1123 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - The chance of impactful weather over the next 7 days is very 
   low.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

After highs in the 50s yesterday (near normal) the combined 
Panhandles are expected to see quite the warm up with temperatures 
reaching well into the 70s. A surface trough is progged to set up 
over parts of eastern NM into the combined Panhandles allowing for 
H85 temperatures to shoot up to 20 degrees C, warming temps well 
above normal to these temperatures. The pressure gradient is not 
anticipated to steepen very much with surface winds maxing out 
around 15 mph. 

A weak surface low is expected to develop to the northwestern 
combined Panhandles, SE CO, and NE NM later this afternoon. As this 
low progresses southeast and the surface trough pushes off to the 
east with it, another cold front will follow. This front is not 
expected to impact overnight temperatures very much tonight but 
should cause afternoon temps on Friday to maintain around normal in 
the mid 50s with upsloping northeasterly to easterly winds. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Mainly benign and dry weather continues into the 
extended period. Temperatures rebound again on Saturday, primarily 
in the southwestern half of the FA, with a nice warm up above normal 
with highs in the 60s. A backdoor cold front is expected a bit 
earlier now with more of the northeastern half being held back in 
the upper 50s. This time, the cold front is expected to impact 
overnight lows brining them down to near normal in the 20s overnight 
into Sunday morning. Despite winds returning to the south before 
Sunday afternoon, a portion of cooler H85 temperatures is expected 
to stay put across the combined Panhandles holding temperatures in 
the 40s, across the eastern Panhandles, and low to mid 50s in the 
western combined Panhandles. As the upper level pattern holds, with 
troughing to the east and ridging to the west, the Panhandles should 
maintain greater influence from the ridge as afternoon temperatures 
progged to return to the 60s Mon afternoon through Wed afternoon.  


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Relatively light winds between 5 and 15 kts out of southwest 
should be present, with mostly clear skies to a few high clouds.
With that said, there could be some LLWS present for KAMA and KGUY
for the first 3 hours of this period, with a 40 to 45 kt jet
between 1K and 1.5K above the surface. A 30 degree difference may
be present as well with that wind shear. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251211T0523.txt



826 
FXUS64 KAMA 102325
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
525 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - The chance of impact weather over the next 7 days is very low.

 - Above normal temperatures will prevail, except Saturday night
   into Sunday behind a cold front. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Very low impact weather will prevail across the panhandles. Cooler
afternoon temperatures remain on deck today in the wake of the 
overnight cold frontal passage, with highs likely to be near to
just above normal today along with lingering high cloudiness. 
Tonight, surface high pressure behind the front will push 
southeastward across the area, with the afternoon high clouds
decreasing and south to southwest winds returning. Another front
will make its approach Thursday night, with well above normal
temperatures making a quick return and winds turning further
westerly ahead of the front. Forecast highs on Thursday have been
nudged upward a couple of degrees from the NBM initialization 
using the NBM the percentile given the expected frontal placement
and westerly low level winds. This front should be south of the 
panhandles by daybreak Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Continued very low impact weather remains expected through the
weekend and into early next week, with a strong cold front
Saturday night bringing the main period of forecast uncertainty, 
centered on temperatures. High temperatures on Friday will be 
noticeably lower than those on Thursday, in the wake of the 
overnight frontal passage, but still should feature above normal 
values. Southerly winds and warmer afternoon temperatures likely
return on Saturday, ahead of the aforementioned strong cold front
that night. While the core of the cold air looks to remain safely
east of the panhandles given the upper level flow, the spread
amongst the various models and their temperature forecasts peaks
during the Saturday night into Sunday period. There is fairly high
confidence this will be the coldest stretch of the 7 day period, 
but confidence is low in just how cold it will get. The colder
temperatures will be short-lived, with a return to above normal
values likely for early next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Relatively light winds between 5 and 15 kts out of southwest 
should be present, with mostly clear skies to a few high clouds. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...36


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251210T2325.txt