Home
124
FXUS64 KAMA 310449
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Patchy fog is expected this morning, which could be locally
dense leading to reduced visibilities.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances likely return Sunday night into
Monday. Strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail
will be possible.
- Winds on Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front may gust over 50
mph at times, favoring the northwest Panhandles.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
After a cloudy, misty, and locally foggy start to the weekend, an
overall quiet Saturday should be in store. Showers have mostly
dissipated as the upper level system responsible for Friday's
rain exits the region. This afternoon should be pleasant, with
lingering clouds gradually clearing and highs in the 60s. Winds
will be out of the south at 10-15 mph with slightly higher gusts.
A tightening pressure gradient Sunday will help winds increase out
of the south, sustained at 15-20 mph gusting up to 35 mph.
Forecast trends remain on an upward trajectory for storm chances
Sunday night, as the next in our series of upper level troughs
passes over the region. Ridging in between systems will give way to
southwest flow, allowing for a nice surge of theta-e to be advected
back to the Panhandles by the aforementioned breezy south winds.
Models have become increasingly aggressive suggesting that vigorous
lift with the trough's arrival should help generate a line of storms
across the eastern Plains of New Mexico, that would reach the
Panhandles late Sunday evening - overnight. Should this line of
storms survive the trip, substantial wind shear is forecast to be
in place (40-60 kts 0-6km), and should interact with continually
improving moisture (1.0-1.5" PWATs & 60s dew points). Even though
instability is still looking modest (MUCAPE 500-1500 J/kg), this
may be enough to support organized updrafts within the line.
Despite the line arriving overnight and daytime temperatures only
reaching the 60s to low 70s, these storms could still be capable
of producing strong/severe hail and wind gusts. Storm motions
would be quite fast (east-northeast at 40-60 mph), which should
limit the flash flooding threat but not completely negate it.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
As the trough axis translates east of the Panhandles, a brief dry
slot and stout 120kt upper level jet streak within northwest flow
will dive over the region, allowing a strong cold front to push
southward Monday night. This front will have a tightly packed
pressure gradient behind it, along with decently stacked jet
dynamics. While this supports cooler temperatures being advected to
the Panhandles (highs in the 50s & 60s, lows in the 40s), it will
also usher in strong wind gusts. Additional wrap around showers
and dense cloud cover are expected behind the front as well,
especially for the northern Panhandles (30-60% POPs). Even with
these limiting factors, it is likely that northwest winds of 20-30
mph gusting up to 45 mph will continue through much of the day
Monday into Tuesday. Favorable conditions behind the front could
still help gusts as high as 50-60 mph mix down to the surface if
everything comes together just right (favoring the northwest
Panhandles), so be prepared for a blustery start to the work week.
Looking towards the middle of next week, models are in fair agreement
that a closed low will translate across the Plains in the vicinity
of the Panhandles. This system shouldn't equate to more rain chances
thanks to the cold front eventually purging the region of any
meaningful moisture. Temps should be near or below seasonal
averages, with drier air mostly staying in place for a few days.
Morning lows could dip into the 30s, but freezing conditions don't
appear likely (mosquitoes across the Panhandles rejoice). Winds will
thankfully diminish, spelling a recipe for some nice fall days.
Looking at long range ensemble members shows that next weekend could
be another window of active weather opportunities, but confidence
remains low for now.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Low ceilings and potentially patchy fog will make for messy TAFs
over the next 24 hrs at all sites. Ceilings will likely drop as
low as IFR to LIFR at all sites through the night. We will be
monitoring for patchy fog as well, with 10-30% chances for
visibilities to drop below 1 mile through the morning hours.
Ceilings will lift to VFR towards the end of the period. Winds
will stay out of the south at 10-15 kts with slightly higher gusts
at times.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20261031T0449.txt
770
FXUS64 KAMA 302335
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
-Rain chances after today return for Sunday and Monday, with some
thunderstorms possible.
-Winds on Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front may gust over 50
mph at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Rain continues to overspread the area moving south to north across
the Panhandles. Latest 18Z obs show highest daily rainfall totals
in the SE TX Panhandle from over half an inch to approaching one
inch of rainfall so far. In this slowly progressive broad H500
sinusoidal pattern across the western 2/3 CONUS, the first of two
distinct wave currently moving through will be followed by a
second wave, from latest satellite analysis, is centered over
eastern Arizona. This second wave that will traverse the far
southern Rockies is moving more northeasterly. As a result, more
scattered rain showers expected with this second wave, with some
light additional rainfall amounts, not as much as what we are
currently seeing across the area. With the overall atmospheric
profile saturated with moisture, during the overnight period, low
clouds and even some areas of fog may develop, and may linger
through most of Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, mostly
dry conditions should return through Saturday night with partly to
mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the
lower 60s in the eastern Panhandles to mid 60s in the western
Panhandles.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
The main southern stream sinusoidal H500 pattern should continue
throughout the remainder of the long term forecast period. This
will result in additional rain chances going through early next
week. Another low pressure system, as of the latest 30/12Z model
and numerical data should move east over the Panhandles. Rain
chances will return Sunday night through Tuesday, with some
potentially strong wind gusts in the wake of the main system and
its cold front that will move through the region. Higher probs
(20-50%) favor wind gusts at or over 50 mph mainly for the
northern Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday, and will watch trends
closely. Temperatures will be near average for early November for
Sunday and Monday, before dropping off to below average Tuesday
through Thursday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Lingering showers and low ceilings will make for messy TAFs over
the next 24 hrs at all sites. Rain is still holding on at KDHT and
KGUY, while KAMA is beginning to clear out. Additional spotty
showers may re-develop through the evening hours. Ceilings are
VFR at KAMA and KGUY for now, but cloud decks will likely drop as
low as IFR to LIFR at all sites through the night. We will be
monitoring for patchy fog as well, with 10-30% chances for
visibilities to drop below 1 mile through the morning hours.
Ceilings will lift to VFR towards the end of the period. Winds
will stay out of the south at 10-15 kts with slightly higher gusts
at times.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20261030T2335.txt
187
FXUS64 KAMA 301847
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
147 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
-Rain chances after today return for Sunday and Monday, with some
thunderstorms possible.
-Winds on Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front may gust over 50
mph at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Rain continues to overspread the area moving south to north across
the Panhandles. Latest 18Z obs show highest daily rainfall totals
in the SE TX Panhandle from over half an inch to approaching one
inch of rainfall so far. In this slowly progressive broad H500
sinusoidal pattern across the western 2/3 CONUS, the first of two
distinct wave currently moving through will be followed by a
second wave, from latest satellite analysis, is centered over
eastern Arizona. This second wave that will traverse the far
southern Rockies is moving more northeasterly. As a result, more
scattered rain showers expected with this second wave, with some
light additional rainfall amounts, not as much as what we are
currently seeing across the area. With the overall atmospheric
profile saturated with moisture, during the overnight period, low
clouds and even some areas of fog may develop, and may linger
through most of Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, mostly
dry conditions should return through Saturday night with partly to
mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the
lower 60s in the eastern Panhandles to mid 60s in the western
Panhandles.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
The main southern stream sinusoidal H500 pattern should continue
throughout the remainder of the long term forecast period. This
will result in additional rain chances going through early next
week. Another low pressure system, as of the latest 30/12Z model
and numerical data should move east over the Panhandles. Rain
chances will return Sunday night through Tuesday, with some
potentially strong wind gusts in the wake of the main system and
its cold front that will move through the region. Higher probs
(20-50%) favor wind gusts at or over 50 mph mainly for the
northern Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday, and will watch trends
closely. Temperatures will be near average for early November for
Sunday and Monday, before dropping off to below average Tuesday
through Thursday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
IFR cigs to start the 18Z TAF period at KAMA, with VFR cigs at
KDHT/KGUY. As we approach 00Z, all TAF sites should drop to
MVFR/IFR cigs and remain in these categories throughout the
remainder of the TAF period. Some -RA conditions to start TAF
period through 00Z expected. Winds will generally be out of the
south and southeast at 5-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts at
times.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20261030T1847.txt
012
FXUS64 KAMA 301734
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Showers with isolated thunderstorms are favored this morning
through tonight. There is a very low chance for flash flooding.
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night
into Monday.
- Strong winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday with wind gusts
potentially exceeding 50 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Rain is on the way once again for much of the combined Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Current radar and mesoanalysis observations
as of midnight show a broad trough draped along the Rio Grande
Valley, with a swath of scattered showers and storms across much
of west Texas. This trough along with a lead perturbation are
lifting northward, pulling a generous amount of tropical moisture
with them. The swath of scattered to widespread showers and weak
storms currently south of the Panhandles will eventually reach and
gradually lift over the area throughout the day. Expect mostly
light to moderate rainfall with embedded pockets of heavier rain
mixed in. Moisture may not be quite as rich as previously
indicated (PWATs 1.0-1.25"), but will still be abundant for some
decent rainfall. Totals of 0.5-1.0" will be more common in the
south and east, but northwest and central portions of the
Panhandles will see totals generally under a half inch. POPs are
greater than 70% for almost the entire CWA, with the far NW
Panhandles being the exception.
As alluded to in previous discussions, the fast movement of this
system will likely allow some dry air to filter in to the area by
the evening hours. Activity would be expected to end earlier this
evening as a result, which is partly why our forecast rainfall
totals are trending slightly lower. Regardless, the threat of flash
flooding is still quite low. It would take heavier rain rates with
convection to get even low-end flash flooding, but nuisance
flooding will certainly be feasible through the day.
Another brief hit of moisture in conjunction with a subtle vorticity
maxima could spur up a few scattered showers across the western to
central counties of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon, but
probabilities are less than 20% for now. Saturday should be a
pleasant day overall, with lingering clouds gradually clearing and
highs in the 60s. Winds will be out of the south at 10-15 mph.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Forecast trends are on an upward trajectory for rain/storm
chances Sunday-Sunday night, as the next in our series of systems
passes over the region. Ridging in between these systems will give
way to southwest flow, allowing for quality 700mb theta-e to be
advected back to the Panhandles. The window still appears somewhat
brief, but vigorous lift ahead of and with the trough's arrival
should help generate showers and storms for the Panhandles as
early as Sunday afternoon, but more likely Sunday evening-
overnight (40-70% POPs). Shear is forecast to be quite nice during
this time frame (40-60 kts), but instability is still looking
dubious at best (70-90% chance for MUCAPE to stay <1000 J/kg).
This should limit severe potential, but a few organized strong
storms certainly can't be ruled out. A dry slot is slated to
filter in by Monday morning, bringing a brief end to precipitation
chances. Temperatures to start the week Sun & Mon will be near
seasonal averages in the 60s & 70s. Breezy south winds of 15-30
mph will become more common especially Monday, with gusts
approaching 45 mph.
As the trough axis translates east of the Panhandles, a stout 120kt
upper level jet streak within northwest flow will dive over the
region, allowing a strong cold front to push southward Monday night.
This front will have a tightly packed pressure gradient behind it,
along with decently stacked jet dynamics. While this supports cooler
temperatures being advected to the Panhandles, the more impactful
consequence appears to be the return of strong wind gusts. Despite
the potential for additional wrap around showers and dense cloud
cover behind the front, this downward momentum could help gusts as
high as 50-60 mph mix down to the surface if everything comes
together just right (favoring the northwest Panhandles). Even if
limiting factors win out, it is likely that northwest winds of 20-30
mph gusting up to 45 mph will continue through much of the day
Tuesday. Rain chances during this time frame look to favor the
northern combined Panhandles for now.
Models are in fair agreement that our pattern should quiet down
through the middle of next week, with weak ridging atop the region.
Temps should be near or below seasonal averages, with drier air back
in place for a couple days. Winds will thankfully diminish as well,
spelling a recipe for some nice fall days. Long range projections
are back to hinting at another active stretch towards the end of
next week, as our rambunctious run of fall weather doesn't look to
stop anytime soon.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
IFR cigs to start the 18Z TAF period at KAMA, with VFR cigs at
KDHT/KGUY. As we approach 00Z, all TAF sites should drop to
MVFR/IFR cigs and remain in these categories throughout the
remainder of the TAF period. Some -RA conditions to start TAF
period through 00Z expected. Winds will generally be out of the
south and southeast at 5-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts at
times.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20261030T1734.txt
525
FXUS64 KAMA 301104
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Showers with isolated thunderstorms are favored this morning
through tonight. There is a very low chance for flash flooding.
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night
into Monday.
- Strong winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday with wind gusts
potentially exceeding 50 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Rain is on the way once again for much of the combined Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Current radar and mesoanalysis observations
as of midnight show a broad trough draped along the Rio Grande
Valley, with a swath of scattered showers and storms across much
of west Texas. This trough along with a lead perturbation are
lifting northward, pulling a generous amount of tropical moisture
with them. The swath of scattered to widespread showers and weak
storms currently south of the Panhandles will eventually reach and
gradually lift over the area throughout the day. Expect mostly
light to moderate rainfall with embedded pockets of heavier rain
mixed in. Moisture may not be quite as rich as previously
indicated (PWATs 1.0-1.25"), but will still be abundant for some
decent rainfall. Totals of 0.5-1.0" will be more common in the
south and east, but northwest and central portions of the
Panhandles will see totals generally under a half inch. POPs are
greater than 70% for almost the entire CWA, with the far NW
Panhandles being the exception.
As alluded to in previous discussions, the fast movement of this
system will likely allow some dry air to filter in to the area by
the evening hours. Activity would be expected to end earlier this
evening as a result, which is partly why our forecast rainfall
totals are trending slightly lower. Regardless, the threat of flash
flooding is still quite low. It would take heavier rain rates with
convection to get even low-end flash flooding, but nuisance
flooding will certainly be feasible through the day.
Another brief hit of moisture in conjunction with a subtle vorticity
maxima could spur up a few scattered showers across the western to
central counties of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon, but
probabilities are less than 20% for now. Saturday should be a
pleasant day overall, with lingering clouds gradually clearing and
highs in the 60s. Winds will be out of the south at 10-15 mph.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Forecast trends are on an upward trajectory for rain/storm
chances Sunday-Sunday night, as the next in our series of systems
passes over the region. Ridging in between these systems will give
way to southwest flow, allowing for quality 700mb theta-e to be
advected back to the Panhandles. The window still appears somewhat
brief, but vigorous lift ahead of and with the trough's arrival
should help generate showers and storms for the Panhandles as
early as Sunday afternoon, but more likely Sunday evening-
overnight (40-70% POPs). Shear is forecast to be quite nice during
this time frame (40-60 kts), but instability is still looking
dubious at best (70-90% chance for MUCAPE to stay <1000 J/kg).
This should limit severe potential, but a few organized strong
storms certainly can't be ruled out. A dry slot is slated to
filter in by Monday morning, bringing a brief end to precipitation
chances. Temperatures to start the week Sun & Mon will be near
seasonal averages in the 60s & 70s. Breezy south winds of 15-30
mph will become more common especially Monday, with gusts
approaching 45 mph.
As the trough axis translates east of the Panhandles, a stout 120kt
upper level jet streak within northwest flow will dive over the
region, allowing a strong cold front to push southward Monday night.
This front will have a tightly packed pressure gradient behind it,
along with decently stacked jet dynamics. While this supports cooler
temperatures being advected to the Panhandles, the more impactful
consequence appears to be the return of strong wind gusts. Despite
the potential for additional wrap around showers and dense cloud
cover behind the front, this downward momentum could help gusts as
high as 50-60 mph mix down to the surface if everything comes
together just right (favoring the northwest Panhandles). Even if
limiting factors win out, it is likely that northwest winds of 20-30
mph gusting up to 45 mph will continue through much of the day
Tuesday. Rain chances during this time frame look to favor the
northern combined Panhandles for now.
Models are in fair agreement that our pattern should quiet down
through the middle of next week, with weak ridging atop the region.
Temps should be near or below seasonal averages, with drier air back
in place for a couple days. Winds will thankfully diminish as well,
spelling a recipe for some nice fall days. Long range projections
are back to hinting at another active stretch towards the end of
next week, as our rambunctious run of fall weather doesn't look to
stop anytime soon.
Harrel
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
A weather system is passing across the panhandles today bringing
rain, thunderstorms, and low cloud decks to all terminals. The
rain and thunderstorms will be capable of reducing visibilities to
MVFR to IFR levels. The low clouds decks will gradually reduce
ceilings to MVFR then IFR and finally LIFR. The rain showers and
thunderstorms are currently starting in the southern panhandles
and will spread across the whole of the panhandles by the later
morning hours. These will then depart or dissipate by the evening
hours. Further icing will be present within the cloud decks across
the panhandles today.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20261030T1104.txt
