558 
FXUS64 KAMA 261136
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

- Dense fog will be an impact through mid morning Sunday across
  the central to western combined Panhandles as visibilities drop
  to one half to one quarter of a mile or less. 

- A cold front will move through the Panhandles later on Monday.
  The primary impacts behind this front will be overnight low
  temperatures through the week, where freezing temperatures are 
  favored and even a low to medium chance of a hard freeze. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

The upper low that was responsible for the recent rainfall and low 
clouds has moved to the east of the region. This will result in 
improving conditions for the remainder of the weekend. However, 
given residual moisture from this system, there remains a medium to 
high potential for some areas to see dense fog in place overnight 
into Sunday morning. HREF indicates that there could be around a 30-
60% chance of dense fog particularly in the central to western parts 
of the combined Panhandles later tonight into early Sunday
morning. Due to this and ongoing observations, a dense fog
advisory has been issued through mid morning Sunday. This lower 
visibility should improve through the morning as well as low 
clouds that will also be in place, and conditions should improve 
by the late morning into the afternoon hours with some drier air 
encroaching from the west. A more zonal to slightly northwesterly 
flow will move in behind this departing upper low for the 
remainder of Sunday into Monday, resulting in drier weather. 
Temperatures look to be around normal in the south to slightly 
below normal in the north to northeast combined Panhandles on 
Sunday and warming further on Monday. Locations in the southwest 
Panhandle may even see a return to the upper 70s and low 80s on 
Monday. Things will change come Monday night as another upper 
trough coming across the Northern Rockies and dig further south 
across the Central Plains and into the Deep South. This will send 
a decently strong cold front toward and through our region Monday 
night which will bring a change for the remainder of the week. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

The aforementioned cold front will push through the region Monday 
night, ushering in a cooler airmass for Tuesday through the 
remainder of the week. In fact, there remains a rather medium to 
high chance that locations, particularly in the north to northwest 
parts of the combined Panhandles, should see a freeze both Wednesday 
and Thursday mornings. This potential for freeze is more areawide on 
Thursday morning and freeze headlines may become necessary later in 
the week. In addition, there is at least a 50% chance of a hard 
freeze in the northwest Panhandles Wednesday morning and a 50-60% 
chance on Thursday morning. In fact, a low chance (around 20%, even 
extends toward Amarillo of a hard freeze Thursday morning(meaning 
lows around 28 degrees or less). Persistent northerly winds will 
continue behind the front for much of the week before shifting back 
out of the south toward next weekend. Highs during the week behind 
the front will begin in the 50s and 60s, gradually warming through 
the week. A brief warm up may occur closer to next weekend with a 
return to the 70s before another potential front slips through in an 
overall pattern that supports broad troughing aloft. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

MVFR/LIFR conditions can be expected for the majority of the TAF
period at all sites. VFR conditions will be possible, mainly from
20z-03z as that would the most favored time for at least some
scattered to few low clouds. Overall, low clouds and fog will
dominate the first 3-6 hours of the TAF period, and may return
again at the tail end of the TAF period. Low cig below 500ft agl
are expected to persist through 15-18z with some brief
improvements, before conditions go back to IFR/LIFR tonight after
03z.  

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001-002-
     006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ008-009-
     013-014-018.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...89


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251026T1136.txt



937 
FXUS64 KAMA 260556
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1256 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

- Dense fog will be an impact through mid morning Sunday across
  the central to western combined Panhandles as visibilities drop
  to one half to one quarter of a mile or less. 

- A cold front will move through the Panhandles later on Monday.
  The primary impacts behind this front will be overnight low
  temperatures through the week, where freezing temperatures are 
  favored and even a low to medium chance of a hard freeze. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

The upper low that was responsible for the recent rainfall and low 
clouds has moved to the east of the region. This will result in 
improving conditions for the remainder of the weekend. However, 
given residual moisture from this system, there remains a medium to 
high potential for some areas to see dense fog in place overnight 
into Sunday morning. HREF indicates that there could be around a 30-
60% chance of dense fog particularly in the central to western parts 
of the combined Panhandles later tonight into early Sunday
morning. Due to this and ongoing observations, a dense fog
advisory has been issued through mid morning Sunday. This lower 
visibility should improve through the morning as well as low 
clouds that will also be in place, and conditions should improve 
by the late morning into the afternoon hours with some drier air 
encroaching from the west. A more zonal to slightly northwesterly 
flow will move in behind this departing upper low for the 
remainder of Sunday into Monday, resulting in drier weather. 
Temperatures look to be around normal in the south to slightly 
below normal in the north to northeast combined Panhandles on 
Sunday and warming further on Monday. Locations in the southwest 
Panhandle may even see a return to the upper 70s and low 80s on 
Monday. Things will change come Monday night as another upper 
trough coming across the Northern Rockies and dig further south 
across the Central Plains and into the Deep South. This will send 
a decently strong cold front toward and through our region Monday 
night which will bring a change for the remainder of the week. 


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

The aforementioned cold front will push through the region Monday 
night, ushering in a cooler airmass for Tuesday through the 
remainder of the week. In fact, there remains a rather medium to 
high chance that locations, particularly in the north to northwest 
parts of the combined Panhandles, should see a freeze both Wednesday 
and Thursday mornings. This potential for freeze is more areawide on 
Thursday morning and freeze headlines may become necessary later in 
the week. In addition, there is at least a 50% chance of a hard 
freeze in the northwest Panhandles Wednesday morning and a 50-60% 
chance on Thursday morning. In fact, a low chance (around 20%, even 
extends toward Amarillo of a hard freeze Thursday morning(meaning 
lows around 28 degrees or less). Persistent northerly winds will 
continue behind the front for much of the week before shifting back 
out of the south toward next weekend. Highs during the week behind 
the front will begin in the 50s and 60s, gradually warming through 
the week. A brief warm up may occur closer to next weekend with a 
return to the 70s before another potential front slips through in an 
overall pattern that supports broad troughing aloft. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

The main aviation concern overnight into Sunday morning will be
low cloud and fog potential. KDHT has dropped to one quarter of a
mile visibility and this lowered visibility will continue through
the overnight hours. This may also occur at KAMA, but confidence 
of dense fog is lower at KGUY. IFR to LIFR conditions should 
prevail through the overnight at all sites due to low clouds and 
potential dense fog. Conditions will improve between 15z and 18z 
Sunday, but MVFR ceilings look to linger through at least 20Z. A 
return to VFR may occur for KAMA and KDHT after 21Z but may not 
return for KGUY until next TAF cycle. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001-002-
     006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...28


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251026T0556.txt



711 
FXUS64 KAMA 251142
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
642 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

- Showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will be likely through 
the day on Saturday across the eastern combined Panhandles

- Frost and freeze conditions will be possible across portions of
  the area from Tuesday night through Thursday night

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Widespread low clouds and reduced visibility, with locally dense fog 
possible, is expected to start Saturday morning, but conditions 
should improve by the afternoon.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough will be present over the 
Panhandles. A shortwave trough, coming from southwest Texas, will 
swing into the parent trough causing a re-intensification of the 
system. The trough will retreat to the north-northwest through 
Saturday, causing PVA to once again be present in the eastern 
Panhandles. Between the favorable forcing and moisture wrapping 
around the system, showers with a couple isolated thunderstorms will 
be favored through much of the day. If enough heating can be 
realized among the cold airmass aloft, some small hail cannot be 
ruled out despite weak wind shear. However, this will heavily depend 
upon the clouds clearing out which seems rather unlikely at this 
time. Activity will taper off in the evening as the system pulls off 
to the east.

Will have to watch for fog potential once again Saturday 
night/Sunday morning, mostly across the western and central 
Panhandles. 

An upper-level ridge will build over the Panhandles on Sunday. 
Clouds will clear through the day which will help temperatures warm 
to varying degrees; the southwestern Panhandles will warm into the 
mid/upper-70s while the northeastern Panhandles will warm slightly 
into the mid-60s. 

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

An upper-level trough will push into the Northern Plains on Monday, 
but temperatures will continue to warm across the area; upper-60s 
are expected in the northeast while it's as warm as around 80 
degrees in the southwest. A cold front is expected move in later in 
the day, and lows will drop into the mid-30s in the north with mid-
40s in the south. 

A dry, relatively chilly airmass is expected to settle in from 
Tuesday through Thursday night as the upper-level trough dips down 
into the Southern US. Will have to be on the lookout for frost 
conditions across much of the area for Tuesday night through 
Thursday night. In fact, the latest NBM shows a 30-55% chance for 
low temperatures to drop below 30 degrees Wednesday night across the 
western and northern combined Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions to start for the TAF sites as we have showers
and storms still lingering this morning. Overall cigs and vis
should gradually improve to VFR by 18-21z. Winds generally will be
starting off out of the north, and becoming more light at variable
later in the TAF period. IFR/LIFR conditions look to return
tonight after 03z as low level moisture could lead to fog or low
cigs. 

Weber


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...89


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251025T1142.txt