Home
664
FXUS64 KAMA 300529
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1129 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Non-impactful snow flurries have a low chance of occurring across
portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Friday night into
Saturday.
Cold overnight lows will affect those who are outdoors Saturday
morning. Wind chill values as low as single digits are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Today, we see the effects of our latest cold front impact the CWA.
Light winds are expected through much of the day until the front
moves through. Then wind speeds will become breezy, mainly affecting
the Oklahoma panhandle and portions of the northeastern Texas
panhandle. High temperatures will still be in the 50's across the
region due to the timing of the trough being later in the day.
Overnight, snow flurries still have a low chance (<15%) of
occurring. However, the latest 00Z CAMs continue to decrease the
potential coverage. Even the more bullish NAM products are
decreasing precipitation coverage as well. Guidance continues to
suggest that little to no accumulation is expected with any snow
that falls. 12Z HREF data still shows a 50-70% for at least 0.1" of
snow in Beaver county and counties surrounding. So if any
accumulation were to occur, those areas are the most likely to
receive it.
Low temperatures Saturday morning will decrease back into the teens
for most areas. Though night time wind speeds should remain light,
there will be enough of a wind component to drop wind chill values
into the single digits. By the afternoon, the eastern focused
placement of the cold air mass will promote a sharp decrease in
temperatures for the eastern combined panhandles. The high
temperature gradient increases westward, where the western half of
our CWA may still be in the 40's with some spotty 50's potentially
affecting localized areas. Surface winds revert back to
southwesterly flow and will be breezy through the afternoon.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Sunday, the H500 ridge quickly redevelops over CWA and warm air
advection dominates the start of the extended period. High
temperatures on Sunday have a chance to be +20 degrees warmer than
Saturday. Most locations in the combined panhandles will be subject
to highs in the 60's. This trend continues into Monday, as highs are
expected to reach the upper 60's, with perhaps a few 70's possible
in some of the warm spots in our FA, like the Canadian River Valley
and Palo Duro Canyon. Our next cold front is anticipated to arrive
on Tuesday. High temperatures by then should return to average
values for this time of year. Overnight lows will not fluctuate too
much during the long term period, keeping to the 20's and lower 30's
each day. The NBM continues to back off of PoPs for the Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning time frame. Long range models show a displaced
moisture axis, favoring the front range of the Rockies and the south-
central CONUS where east Texas and Oklahoma are more at play. Our
current chances for precipitation stem from moisture moving off of
the high terrain and into the western High Plains.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Light winds are expected through much of the TAF period. Breezy
winds are expected at KGUY due to a passing cold front this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings are forecast to overtake the TAF sites
early Saturday morning. Currently, only KGUY is expected to be
effected before 06Z Saturday.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260130T0529.txt
391
FXUS64 KAMA 300442
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1042 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Non-impactful snow flurries have a low chance of occurring across
portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Friday night into
Saturday.
Cold overnight lows will affect those who are outdoors Saturday
morning. Wind chill values as low as single digits are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Today, we see the effects of our latest cold front impact the CWA.
Light winds are expected through much of the day until the front
moves through. Then wind speeds will become breezy, mainly affecting
the Oklahoma panhandle and portions of the northeastern Texas
panhandle. High temperatures will still be in the 50's across the
region due to the timing of the trough being later in the day.
Overnight, snow flurries still have a low chance (<15%) of
occurring. However, the latest 00Z CAMs continue to decrease the
potential coverage. Even the more bullish NAM products are
decreasing precipitation coverage as well. Guidance continues to
suggest that little to no accumulation is expected with any snow
that falls. 12Z HREF data still shows a 50-70% for at least 0.1" of
snow in Beaver county and counties surrounding. So if any
accumulation were to occur, those areas are the most likely to
receive it.
Low temperatures Saturday morning will decrease back into the teens
for most areas. Though night time wind speeds should remain light,
there will be enough of a wind component to drop wind chill values
into the single digits. By the afternoon, the eastern focused
placement of the cold air mass will promote a sharp decrease in
temperatures for the eastern combined panhandles. The high
temperature gradient increases westward, where the western half of
our CWA may still be in the 40's with some spotty 50's potentially
affecting localized areas. Surface winds revert back to
southwesterly flow and will be breezy through the afternoon.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Sunday, the H500 ridge quickly redevelops over CWA and warm air
advection dominates the start of the extended period. High
temperatures on Sunday have a chance to be +20 degrees warmer than
Saturday. Most locations in the combined panhandles will be subject
to highs in the 60's. This trend continues into Monday, as highs are
expected to reach the upper 60's, with perhaps a few 70's possible
in some of the warm spots in our FA, like the Canadian River Valley
and Palo Duro Canyon. Our next cold front is anticipated to arrive
on Tuesday. High temperatures by then should return to average
values for this time of year. Overnight lows will not fluctuate too
much during the long term period, keeping to the 20's and lower 30's
each day. The NBM continues to back off of PoPs for the Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning time frame. Long range models show a displaced
moisture axis, favoring the front range of the Rockies and the south-
central CONUS where east Texas and Oklahoma are more at play. Our
current chances for precipitation stem from moisture moving off of
the high terrain and into the western High Plains.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
VFR conditions and light winds are expected at all sites for the
next 24 hours. Low ceilings may effect the terminals outside the
current TAF period, so we will continue to monitor.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260130T0442.txt
033
FXUS64 KAMA 292327
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
527 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
-Breezy winds this afternoon gusting 35-45 mph out of the north.
-The snow potential this Friday night has very low potential for
impacts. Accumulation has a low chance of occurring.
-Mild temperatures in the extended with a low chance for
precipitation to return on Wednesday next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Breezy north winds on the back side of a cold front will continue
this afternoon, and should diminish around the 2pm to 4pm time
frame. The strongest jet streak and cooler airmass is displaced a
bit further east, and therefore winds today should only gust in that
35 to 45 mph range for the most part. No precipitation expected
with this system today and tonight.
As we stay tightly squeezed between warmer air to the southwest and
colder air just to the east, tomorrow's high will be in the mid to
upper 50s in the west to upper 40s/lower 50s in the east. The next
cold air push that will be attributed to the large scale cold
airmass over the Great Lakes region. As the center of the low dives
down over eastern Missouri a back door cold air push will move across
the Panhandles Friday evening before midnight. So there is some
concern that the highs in the eastern Panhandle, may be lower if
that front moves in quicker. Friday night will also have a little
bit of moisture associated, and we could squeeze out some light snow
overnight. But the likelihood of any accumulation, let alone
impactful accumualtions is low (<20%).
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
For those that wake up early Saturday morning, it will still be
quite cold. The southwest Panhandles will have wind chills in the
low teens, and in the northeast the wind chills will be close to
zero. The main system will quickly move over the TN area and
Carolinas Saturday afternoon, pulling the colder air further east.
We will still have fairly cold highs in the low 30s to mid 40s on
Saturday, but that will be the coldest day as the system pulls away
to the east coast.
By Sunday high pressure that was over the west will replace that
colder air that had pressed up against the lee of the Rockies and
that will give a chance at widespread highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
Another fast moving upper trough will dive down under the northwest
flow on Monday and we'll get some warm southwest flow on Tuesday
that could support some areas in the low 70s as a high on Tuesday,
but most areas will just be in the mid 60s.
Tuesday will be on the back side of that wave and that will knock
temperatures back in the 50s.
Wednesday will be a bit tricky, as there is a hint that the a low
will attempt to close off over the northern plains and dive down
toward the central plains, holding our areas in a more colder
backdoor front situation. Additionally, we might get some light
rain/snow out of the back side of this system as it tries to grab a
pocket of moisture off the Rockies and transport that over the
Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon. Right now very low confidence on
temperatures and pops on Wednesday as we await what this system will
do.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
VFR conditions and light winds are expected at all sites for the
next 24 hours. Low ceilings may effect the terminals outside the
current TAF period, so we will continue to monitor.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260129T2327.txt
242
FXUS64 KAMA 291856
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1256 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
-Breezy winds this afternoon gusting 35-45 mph out of the north.
-The snow potential this Friday night has very low potential for
impacts. Accumulation has a low chance of occurring.
-Mild temperatures in the extended with a low chance for
precipitation to return on Wednesday next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Breezy north winds on the back side of a cold front will continue
this afternoon, and should diminish around the 2pm to 4pm time
frame. The strongest jet streak and cooler airmass is displaced a
bit further east, and therefore winds today should only gust in that
35 to 45 mph range for the most part. No precipitation expected
with this system today and tonight.
As we stay tightly squeezed between warmer air to the southwest and
colder air just to the east, tomorrow's high will be in the mid to
upper 50s in the west to upper 40s/lower 50s in the east. The next
cold air push that will be attributed to the large scale cold
airmass over the Great Lakes region. As the center of the low dives
down over eastern Missouri a back door cold air push will move across
the Panhandles Friday evening before midnight. So there is some
concern that the highs in the eastern Panhandle, may be lower if
that front moves in quicker. Friday night will also have a little
bit of moisture associated, and we could squeeze out some light snow
overnight. But the likelihood of any accumulation, let alone
impactful accumualtions is low (<20%).
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
For those that wake up early Saturday morning, it will still be
quite cold. The southwest Panhandles will have wind chills in the
low teens, and in the northeast the wind chills will be close to
zero. The main system will quickly move over the TN area and
Carolinas Saturday afternoon, pulling the colder air further east.
We will still have fairly cold highs in the low 30s to mid 40s on
Saturday, but that will be the coldest day as the system pulls away
to the east coast.
By Sunday high pressure that was over the west will replace that
colder air that had pressed up against the lee of the Rockies and
that will give a chance at widespread highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
Another fast moving upper trough will dive down under the northwest
flow on Monday and we'll get some warm southwest flow on Tuesday
that could support some areas in the low 70s as a high on Tuesday,
but most areas will just be in the mid 60s.
Tuesday will be on the back side of that wave and that will knock
temperatures back in the 50s.
Wednesday will be a bit tricky, as there is a hint that the a low
will attempt to close off over the northern plains and dive down
toward the central plains, holding our areas in a more colder
backdoor front situation. Additionally, we might get some light
rain/snow out of the back side of this system as it tries to grab a
pocket of moisture off the Rockies and transport that over the
Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon. Right now very low confidence on
temperatures and pops on Wednesday as we await what this system will
do.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with mostly clear skies. Main impacts will be breezy north
winds in the 20-30kt range, with gusts as high as 40kts through
about the 21z time period. Thereafter, winds will start to come
down gradually to around 10kts after 00z for most areas.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260129T1856.txt
689
FXUS64 KAMA 291757
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1157 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Strong winds tonight have the potential to become damaging in very
isolated locations across the CWA. Strong cross wind gusts will be
possible for those in commute, and loose objects may be displaced.
The snow potential this Friday night has very low potential for
impacts. Accumulation has a low chance of occurring.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Synopsis...
Strong +45 mph wind gusts are expected to occur
overnight for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some 50 mph and
even 60 mph winds are possible. The main time frame for these
gusts will be from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.
Mesoscale...
A strong low level jet is setting up this evening in association
with an oncoming surface low. A cold front will also reinforce
the LLJ as it transitions eastward through the night. The primary
concern with these features is whether or not these low level
winds will mix completely down to the surface. Near term guidance
clearly shows the LLJ strengthening towards midnight, and 850 mb
winds display +50kt wind speeds being achieved. This afternoon's
CAMs keep winds up overnight, but wind gusts are mostly
under performing. 18Z skew-T profiles show 15-25 mph winds at the
surface, but just 500-1,000m above the surface are 45-50 mph
winds, even reaching up to 65 mph in some instances. These heights
are also where the temperature inversion is expected, but the
LLJ's influence may help these stronger winds break through the
inversion and mix down to the surface. 12Z HREF guidance suggest
there is a up to a 70% chance a 45 mph wind gusts can be met in
the central and northwestern Texas Panhandle. Unfortunately, the
latest 00Z data is not available yet for analysis; however, we
will continue to monitor observations for signs of these gusts
occurring. While these high-end wind gusts will not be widespread
across the region, localized areas are more likely to receive
impacts. As the cold front meets the surface low, the pressure
gradient is forecast to tighten further. +45 mph wind gust
probabilities shift towards the northwest combined panhandles
after 12 AM as the front moves through. By 6 AM Thursday, surface
winds will still be strong as we head into the day, but they will
loose support from the LLJ as it completely shifts into Oklahoma
and disperses in the process.
Rangel
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
See the UPDATE for the short term forecast tonight through Thursday
morning.
Another resurgence of strong, northerly wind speeds is forecast to
occur this afternoon due to diurnal heating behind the passing
front. However, wind gusts are not expected to be as potentially
strong as they could be in the aforementioned Tonight period. Still,
wind gusts up to 40 mph may occur early this afternoon. Despite the
northerly wind flow, temperatures today will continue to range in
the 50's, with some 40's expected in our eastern zones. Clear skies
will amplify daytime heating and tonight's low temperatures will
actually be generally above average due to the strong overnight
winds. By the evening, wind speeds will finally decrease an become
light through the night.
Friday, day time highs are anticipated to marginally increase, with
50's becoming more widespread again. Our next cold front is expected
to arrive Friday afternoon, but winds will only be breezy behind the
front. As temperatures fall sharply in the wake of the cold front,
guidance still suggest there may be enough moisture for some light
precipitation overnight into Saturday. Currently the northeast
combined panhandles are the most likely candidates for snowfall, or
at least snow flurries. There is a low chance (<15%) that snow could
effect more areas further south in or CWA, but models are not
forecasting QPF for those locations. Therefore, snow flurries are
the most likely outcome for most of the combined Panhandles.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Any potential snowfall would have already occurred before 6 AM
Saturday. The current probabilities for additional precipitation are
very low for the day time on Saturday. The cold front will have
already past by this point as well, and winds will revert back to
southerly flow by the afternoon. Yesterday's 12Z and 18Z model data
show more of a western influence from upper level heights. This
allows high temperatures to be cooler across the area than
previously forecast. Highs ranging from the lower 30's to lower 40's
are expected, but the majority of the combined panhandles should be
bound to the 30's.
Sunday onward, the upper level ridge quickly redevelops over the
region. Yet, we will still be subject to dynamic upper level changes
as the pattern remains unsettled. High temperatures will rebound to
the 50's and some 60's on Sunday. Above normal temperatures will
linger through the new week before our next cold front arrives
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday PoPs have decreased or
remained stagnate across the area. Models are still not in good
agreement concerning the moisture axis and precipitation type.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with mostly clear skies. Main impacts will be breezy north
winds in the 20-30kt range, with gusts as high as 40kts through
about the 21z time period. Thereafter, winds will start to come
down gradually to around 10kts after 00z for most areas.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260129T1757.txt
678
FXUS64 KAMA 291106
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
506 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Strong winds tonight have the potential to become damaging in very
isolated locations across the CWA. Strong cross wind gusts will be
possible for those in commute, and loose objects may be displaced.
The snow potential this Friday night has very low potential for
impacts. Accumulation has a low chance of occurring.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Synopsis...
Strong +45 mph wind gusts are expected to occur
overnight for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some 50 mph and
even 60 mph winds are possible. The main time frame for these
gusts will be from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.
Mesoscale...
A strong low level jet is setting up this evening in association
with an oncoming surface low. A cold front will also reinforce
the LLJ as it transitions eastward through the night. The primary
concern with these features is whether or not these low level
winds will mix completely down to the surface. Near term guidance
clearly shows the LLJ strengthening towards midnight, and 850 mb
winds display +50kt wind speeds being achieved. This afternoon's
CAMs keep winds up overnight, but wind gusts are mostly
under performing. 18Z skew-T profiles show 15-25 mph winds at the
surface, but just 500-1,000m above the surface are 45-50 mph
winds, even reaching up to 65 mph in some instances. These heights
are also where the temperature inversion is expected, but the
LLJ's influence may help these stronger winds break through the
inversion and mix down to the surface. 12Z HREF guidance suggest
there is a up to a 70% chance a 45 mph wind gusts can be met in
the central and northwestern Texas Panhandle. Unfortunately, the
latest 00Z data is not available yet for analysis; however, we
will continue to monitor observations for signs of these gusts
occurring. While these high-end wind gusts will not be widespread
across the region, localized areas are more likely to receive
impacts. As the cold front meets the surface low, the pressure
gradient is forecast to tighten further. +45 mph wind gust
probabilities shift towards the northwest combined panhandles
after 12 AM as the front moves through. By 6 AM Thursday, surface
winds will still be strong as we head into the day, but they will
loose support from the LLJ as it completely shifts into Oklahoma
and disperses in the process.
Rangel
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
See the UPDATE for the short term forecast tonight through Thursday
morning.
Another resurgence of strong, northerly wind speeds is forecast to
occur this afternoon due to diurnal heating behind the passing
front. However, wind gusts are not expected to be as potentially
strong as they could be in the aforementioned Tonight period. Still,
wind gusts up to 40 mph may occur early this afternoon. Despite the
northerly wind flow, temperatures today will continue to range in
the 50's, with some 40's expected in our eastern zones. Clear skies
will amplify daytime heating and tonight's low temperatures will
actually be generally above average due to the strong overnight
winds. By the evening, wind speeds will finally decrease an become
light through the night.
Friday, day time highs are anticipated to marginally increase, with
50's becoming more widespread again. Our next cold front is expected
to arrive Friday afternoon, but winds will only be breezy behind the
front. As temperatures fall sharply in the wake of the cold front,
guidance still suggest there may be enough moisture for some light
precipitation overnight into Saturday. Currently the northeast
combined panhandles are the most likely candidates for snowfall, or
at least snow flurries. There is a low chance (<15%) that snow could
effect more areas further south in or CWA, but models are not
forecasting QPF for those locations. Therefore, snow flurries are
the most likely outcome for most of the combined Panhandles.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Any potential snowfall would have already occurred before 6 AM
Saturday. The current probabilities for additional precipitation are
very low for the day time on Saturday. The cold front will have
already past by this point as well, and winds will revert back to
southerly flow by the afternoon. Yesterday's 12Z and 18Z model data
show more of a western influence from upper level heights. This
allows high temperatures to be cooler across the area than
previously forecast. Highs ranging from the lower 30's to lower 40's
are expected, but the majority of the combined panhandles should be
bound to the 30's.
Sunday onward, the upper level ridge quickly redevelops over the
region. Yet, we will still be subject to dynamic upper level changes
as the pattern remains unsettled. High temperatures will rebound to
the 50's and some 60's on Sunday. Above normal temperatures will
linger through the new week before our next cold front arrives
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday PoPs have decreased or
remained stagnate across the area. Models are still not in good
agreement concerning the moisture axis and precipitation type.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
The surface inversion is preventing the strong winds from mixing
to the surface. This means that all terminals have strong speed
LLWS this morning. Come this mid morning hours the winds will mix
to the surface creating breezy and gusty conditions at all
terminals that will last until the evening. After this the winds
weaken and become fairly weak. Otherwise VFR conditions at all
terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...98
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260129T1106.txt
068
FXUS64 KAMA 290546
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1146 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Strong winds tonight have the potential to become damaging in very
isolated locations across the CWA. Strong cross wind gusts will be
possible for those in commute, and loose objects may be displaced.
The snow potential this Friday night has very low potential for
impacts. Accumulation has a low chance of occurring.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Synopsis...
Strong +45 mph wind gusts are expected to occur
overnight for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some 50 mph and
even 60 mph winds are possible. The main time frame for these
gusts will be from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.
Mesoscale...
A strong low level jet is setting up this evening in association
with an oncoming surface low. A cold front will also reinforce
the LLJ as it transitions eastward through the night. The primary
concern with these features is whether or not these low level
winds will mix completely down to the surface. Near term guidance
clearly shows the LLJ strengthening towards midnight, and 850 mb
winds display +50kt wind speeds being achieved. This afternoon's
CAMs keep winds up overnight, but wind gusts are mostly
under performing. 18Z skew-T profiles show 15-25 mph winds at the
surface, but just 500-1,000m above the surface are 45-50 mph
winds, even reaching up to 65 mph in some instances. These heights
are also where the temperature inversion is expected, but the
LLJ's influence may help these stronger winds break through the
inversion and mix down to the surface. 12Z HREF guidance suggest
there is a up to a 70% chance a 45 mph wind gusts can be met in
the central and northwestern Texas Panhandle. Unfortunately, the
latest 00Z data is not available yet for analysis; however, we
will continue to monitor observations for signs of these gusts
occurring. While these high-end wind gusts will not be widespread
across the region, localized areas are more likely to receive
impacts. As the cold front meets the surface low, the pressure
gradient is forecast to tighten further. +45 mph wind gust
probabilities shift towards the northwest combined panhandles
after 12 AM as the front moves through. By 6 AM Thursday, surface
winds will still be strong as we head into the day, but they will
loose support from the LLJ as it completely shifts into Oklahoma
and disperses in the process.
Rangel
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
See the UPDATE for the short term forecast tonight through Thursday
morning.
Another resurgence of strong, northerly wind speeds is forecast to
occur this afternoon due to diurnal heating behind the passing
front. However, wind gusts are not expected to be as potentially
strong as they could be in the aforementioned Tonight period. Still,
wind gusts up to 40 mph may occur early this afternoon. Despite the
northerly wind flow, temperatures today will continue to range in
the 50's, with some 40's expected in our eastern zones. Clear skies
will amplify daytime heating and tonight's low temperatures will
actually be generally above average due to the strong overnight
winds. By the evening, wind speeds will finally decrease an become
light through the night.
Friday, day time highs are anticipated to marginally increase, with
50's becoming more widespread again. Our next cold front is expected
to arrive Friday afternoon, but winds will only be breezy behind the
front. As temperatures fall sharply in the wake of the cold front,
guidance still suggest there may be enough moisture for some light
precipitation overnight into Saturday. Currently the northeast
combined panhandles are the most likely candidates for snowfall, or
at least snow flurries. There is a low chance (<15%) that snow could
effect more areas further south in or CWA, but models are not
forecasting QPF for those locations. Therefore, snow flurries are
the most likely outcome for most of the combined Panhandles.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Any potential snowfall would have already occurred before 6 AM
Saturday. The current probabilities for additional precipitation are
very low for the day time on Saturday. The cold front will have
already past by this point as well, and winds will revert back to
southerly flow by the afternoon. Yesterday's 12Z and 18Z model data
show more of a western influence from upper level heights. This
allows high temperatures to be cooler across the area than
previously forecast. Highs ranging from the lower 30's to lower 40's
are expected, but the majority of the combined panhandles should be
bound to the 30's.
Sunday onward, the upper level ridge quickly redevelops over the
region. Yet, we will still be subject to dynamic upper level changes
as the pattern remains unsettled. High temperatures will rebound to
the 50's and some 60's on Sunday. Above normal temperatures will
linger through the new week before our next cold front arrives
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday PoPs have decreased or
remained stagnate across the area. Models are still not in good
agreement concerning the moisture axis and precipitation type.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Low level wind shear has been removed from all TAF sites due to
increased confidence in winds gusts mixing down to the surface.
Gusts up to 40kts are expected tonight and we have made the
prevailing at KAMA and KDHT. The wind direction will steadily veer
from southwest to due north by the day time hours today. Strong
winds will continue well through Thursday and finally subside by
the evening hours.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260129T0546.txt
