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991
FXUS64 KAMA 282329
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Latest radar imagery has a few showers and thunderstorms across
northeastern New Mexico, with the best updraft currently west-
southwest of Clayton. CAMs continue to suggest some of these
showers or storms may reach the western Panhandles before
diminishing later this evening, so have slightly expanded PoPs
across the west and northwest. Some thunder has been observed with
some of the cells so have added thunder mentions to the ongoing
forecast as well. After sunset, the thunder threat should greatly
diminish and the coverage of any showers and/or storms should also
decrease. If any storms move into our area, lightning, sporadic
gusty winds, and small hail would be possible with the strongest
updrafts.
Muscha
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to make a run a
the northwest CWA late this afternoon and evening. Most of the
showers and storms should dissipate by sunset, but there is a weak
disturbance that moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle that could help
keep some of the activity going overnight. At any rate, not
expecting much precipitation from any showers or storms that would
happen to move across our northern CWA.
Surface winds converge along a trough in the eastern CWA by Monday
afternoon. Surface moisture is not the greatest, but if a well
timed disturbance can move across, then there could be a
thunderstorm or two across the northeast CWA Monday afternoon.
Lows tonight are expected to be mainly in the 40's. However, there
could be a few upper 30's in the northwest with a few lower 50's in
the southeast. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid
70's in the northwest to the mid 80's in the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Warm temperatures expected Tue and Wed with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s possible. Thu through Fri are looking to have cooler
behind a frontal passage. Fri being the coolest with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 70s. Sat may potentially rebound into the
lower 80s once again. Still some uncertainty out in Day 7.
As far as precipitation goes, Wed through Thu morning a dryline
may set up over the area again with many ingredients for a severe
storm potential for the eastern combined Panhandles. This is
looking like only a potential once again, as one ingredient may
still fall short with storms unable to initiate in the first
place. It is still quite early to tell how far west the dryline
will actually be and whether a cap will be in play to minimize
storm production. Have left NBM PoPs in for now with which give 20
to 40 percent to the southeastern third to half of the FA Wed
afternoon. NBM only gives a 10 pop the night before on Tue, this
will have to be monitored as some guidance suggests some possible
thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Tue as
well. Thu storm chances will all depend on the progression of the
front. If the front can move in slower and keep the dryline in the
east longer some thunderstorms may be possible in the far eastern
Panhandles on Thu as well.
Fri through Sat showers and thunderstorms may be possible also,
depending on the nature and progression of the H5 trough that
brings the initial front on Thu with more CAA on Fri. Some of the
models suggests this initial upper level trough moves off but is
followed by additional shortwave troughs impacting the area late
Fri into the weekend.
36
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. Only exception would be
if a shower or thunderstorm moves over the site in the next few
hours. Confidence is low in that scenario right now but will amend
if confidence increases. Light winds are expected at all sites
around 10 kts or less over the next 24 hours. KDHT may have
sporadic higher winds if a shower or storm moves over the
terminal.
Muscha
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 47 82 51 89 / 10 0 0 0
Beaver OK 44 83 53 93 / 10 10 0 0
Boise City OK 41 77 46 86 / 20 0 0 0
Borger TX 49 86 53 94 / 10 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 45 83 49 91 / 10 0 0 0
Canyon TX 45 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 49 83 54 91 / 0 0 0 10
Dalhart TX 41 79 44 88 / 20 0 0 0
Guymon OK 42 80 47 90 / 10 10 0 0
Hereford TX 45 82 50 89 / 10 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 46 83 55 93 / 10 10 0 10
Pampa TX 49 82 53 90 / 10 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 49 83 55 91 / 0 10 0 10
Wellington TX 49 84 55 91 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20240428T2329.txt
150
FXUS64 KAMA 281844
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
144 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to make a run a
the northwest CWA late this afternoon and evening. Most of the
showers and storms should dissipate by sunset, but there is a weak
disturbance that moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle that could help
keep some of the activity going overnight. At any rate, not
expecting much precipitation from any showers or storms that would
happen to move across our northern CWA.
Surface winds converge along a trough in the eastern CWA by Monday
afternoon. Surface moisture is not the greatest, but if a well
timed disturbance can move across, then there could be a
thunderstorm or two across the northeast CWA Monday afternoon.
Lows tonight are expected to be mainly in the 40's. However, there
could be a few upper 30's in the northwest with a few lower 50's in
the southeast. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid
70's in the northwest to the mid 80's in the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Warm temperatures expected Tue and Wed with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s possible. Thu through Fri are looking to have cooler
behind a frontal passage. Fri being the coolest with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 70s. Sat may potentially rebound into the
lower 80s once again. Still some uncertainty out in Day 7.
As far as precipitation goes, Wed through Thu morning a dryline
may set up over the area again with many ingredients for a severe
storm potential for the eastern combined Panhandles. This is
looking like only a potential once again, as one ingredient may
still fall short with storms unable to initiate in the first
place. It is still quite early to tell how far west the dryline
will actually be and whether a cap will be in play to minimize
storm production. Have left NBM PoPs in for now with which give 20
to 40 percent to the southeastern third to half of the FA Wed
afternoon. NBM only gives a 10 pop the night before on Tue, this
will have to be monitored as some guidance suggests some possible
thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Tue as
well. Thu storm chances will all depend on the progression of the
front. If the front can move in slower and keep the dryline in the
east longer some thunderstorms may be possible in the far eastern
Panhandles on Thu as well.
Fri through Sat showers and thunderstorms may be possible also,
depending on the nature and progression of the H5 trough that
brings the initial front on Thu with more CAA on Fri. Some of the
models suggests this initial upper level trough moves off but is
followed by additional shortwave troughs impacting the area late
Fri into the weekend.
36
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A few showers may make a run at the DHT and GUY TAF sites early
this evening, but have not mentioned them as confidence is low
that they will make it those sites. Otherwise, skies are expected
to remain VFR at all sites. Winds are expected to remain around 10
knots or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 47 82 51 89 / 10 0 0 0
Beaver OK 44 83 53 93 / 10 20 0 0
Boise City OK 41 77 46 86 / 10 0 0 0
Borger TX 49 86 53 94 / 10 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 45 83 49 91 / 10 0 0 0
Canyon TX 46 81 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 49 83 54 91 / 0 0 0 10
Dalhart TX 40 79 44 88 / 10 0 0 0
Guymon OK 42 80 47 90 / 10 10 0 0
Hereford TX 46 82 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 47 83 55 93 / 10 10 0 10
Pampa TX 49 82 53 90 / 10 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 50 83 55 91 / 0 10 0 10
Wellington TX 50 84 55 91 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...15
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20240428T1844.txt
457
FXUS64 KAMA 281738 AAB
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A weak cold front has been cruising south through the area
tonight, bringing in a marginally cooler air mass with northwest
winds. The upper level system associated with yesterday's gusty
conditions and severe weather will continue to lift northward
over the Plains today, leaving the Panhandles with a beautiful
spring Sunday. Winds will only be 10-20 mph, and high temperatures
this afternoon should range from upper 60s across the northwest
to upper 70s in the southeast.
The far northwest to north central combined Panhandles could see
some very light showers late this evening into the overnight hours
when a minor shortwave disturbance passes overhead. Dry air will
remain prevalent however, amounting to only a 10-20% chance for
measurable rainfall. Subtle ridging aloft takes over Monday,
allowing for the start of a much warmer week. Light south winds
and highs in the 80s will return for most of the forecast area as
a result.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Tuesday will be a warm and dry day as zonal flow will continue
across the Panhandles. Highs will almost be 90 across the board on
Tuesday, with a couple of isolated areas in the upper 80s. Overall,
winds will be tame in the 15 to 20 mph range with fairly low RH
values. This will provide elevated to low end critical Fire Weather
conditions. Wednesday will almost be a carbon copy to Tuesday
temperature wise, but we are seeing signs of the dryline backing
into the central Panhandles, and that will bring us the chance of
showers and storms, possibly severe for the central and eastern
Panhandles Wednesday evening. NBM pops have about a 20 to 30 percent
chance for storms in the east on Wednesday evening, and that will
suffice for the time being.
Thursday's highs will be a challenge as it all depends on how fast
the next system moves through. Right now most highs are based on
nearly optimum heating for most areas, as the front may not move
through until after 1 pm for the OK Panhandle. That will give ample
time for most areas to warm up. Position of the trough and residual
moisture will play a role in the pop potential, but for now keeping
NBM's 20-30 percent for the southeast in the afternoon, and for the
rest of the Panhandles during the evening hours. Most likely this
will be isolated to widely scattered showers if we do get anything,
so it's not looking that great for areas in the central an western
Panhandles. The front looks pretty strong given the nearly 20C
850mb temperature drop, and therefore would expect strong wind
behind this front, with the winds relaxing after sunrise on Friday.
Again, overnight showers will be possible as well, depending on the
track and position of the system. Highs on Friday only be in the
upper 60s to near 70. Saturday will likely return to the upper 70s
to lower 80s as zonal flow with warmer air returns. NBM is giving
some pops on Saturday, but overall it looks contingent on a
shortwave moving through helping to kick off some storms. So
confidence is not very high in the pops.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A few showers may make a run at the DHT and GUY TAF sites early
this evening, but have not mentioned them as confidence is low
that they will make it those sites. Otherwise, skies are expected
to remain VFR at all sites. Winds are expected to remain around 10
knots or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 47 82 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 43 82 53 92 / 10 10 0 0
Boise City OK 41 77 46 87 / 10 0 0 0
Borger TX 48 85 54 94 / 10 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 45 83 49 92 / 10 0 0 0
Canyon TX 46 82 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 49 82 54 91 / 0 0 0 10
Dalhart TX 40 79 43 87 / 10 0 0 0
Guymon OK 42 81 47 90 / 10 0 0 0
Hereford TX 46 82 49 90 / 10 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 46 82 55 93 / 10 10 0 0
Pampa TX 48 81 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 49 82 55 91 / 0 0 0 10
Wellington TX 49 84 56 91 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...15
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20240428T1738.txt
786
FXUS64 KAMA 281141
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A weak cold front has been cruising south through the area
tonight, bringing in a marginally cooler air mass with northwest
winds. The upper level system associated with yesterday's gusty
conditions and severe weather will continue to lift northward
over the Plains today, leaving the Panhandles with a beautiful
spring Sunday. Winds will only be 10-20 mph, and high temperatures
this afternoon should range from upper 60s across the northwest
to upper 70s in the southeast.
The far northwest to north central combined Panhandles could see
some very light showers late this evening into the overnight hours
when a minor shortwave disturbance passes overhead. Dry air will
remain prevalent however, amounting to only a 10-20% chance for
measurable rainfall. Subtle ridging aloft takes over Monday,
allowing for the start of a much warmer week. Light south winds
and highs in the 80s will return for most of the forecast area as
a result.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Tuesday will be a warm and dry day as zonal flow will continue
across the Panhandles. Highs will almost be 90 across the board on
Tuesday, with a couple of isolated areas in the upper 80s. Overall,
winds will be tame in the 15 to 20 mph range with fairly low RH
values. This will provide elevated to low end critical Fire Weather
conditions. Wednesday will almost be a carbon copy to Tuesday
temperature wise, but we are seeing signs of the dryline backing
into the central Panhandles, and that will bring us the chance of
showers and storms, possibly severe for the central and eastern
Panhandles Wednesday evening. NBM pops have about a 20 to 30 percent
chance for storms in the east on Wednesday evening, and that will
suffice for the time being.
Thursday's highs will be a challenge as it all depends on how fast
the next system moves through. Right now most highs are based on
nearly optimum heating for most areas, as the front may not move
through until after 1 pm for the OK Panhandle. That will give ample
time for most areas to warm up. Position of the trough and residual
moisture will play a role in the pop potential, but for now keeping
NBM's 20-30 percent for the southeast in the afternoon, and for the
rest of the Panhandles during the evening hours. Most likely this
will be isolated to widely scattered showers if we do get anything,
so it's not looking that great for areas in the central an western
Panhandles. The front looks pretty strong given the nearly 20C
850mb temperature drop, and therefore would expect strong wind
behind this front, with the winds relaxing after sunrise on Friday.
Again, overnight showers will be possible as well, depending on the
track and position of the system. Highs on Friday only be in the
upper 60s to near 70. Saturday will likely return to the upper 70s
to lower 80s as zonal flow with warmer air returns. NBM is giving
some pops on Saturday, but overall it looks contingent on a
shortwave moving through helping to kick off some storms. So
confidence is not very high in the pops.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions should be in place at all sites throughout the
period. The only contingency is if low to mid clouds approaching
KDHT and KGUY are able to become more widespread than currently
forecast. In this case, some occasional MVFR ceilings may exist
occasionally this period. Otherwise, expect light northwest winds
becoming lighter and more variable overnight.
Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 73 47 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 72 43 82 53 / 10 10 10 0
Boise City OK 68 41 77 46 / 10 10 0 0
Borger TX 76 48 85 54 / 0 10 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 74 45 83 49 / 0 10 0 0
Canyon TX 73 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 74 49 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 70 40 79 43 / 10 10 0 0
Guymon OK 70 42 81 47 / 10 10 0 0
Hereford TX 75 46 82 49 / 0 10 0 0
Lipscomb TX 74 46 82 55 / 10 10 10 0
Pampa TX 73 48 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 76 49 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 77 49 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...38
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20240428T1141.txt
181
FXUS64 KAMA 280756
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
256 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A weak cold front has been cruising south through the area
tonight, bringing in a marginally cooler air mass with northwest
winds. The upper level system associated with yesterday's gusty
conditions and severe weather will continue to lift northward
over the Plains today, leaving the Panhandles with a beautiful
spring Sunday. Winds will only be 10-20 mph, and high temperatures
this afternoon should range from upper 60s across the northwest
to upper 70s in the southeast.
The far northwest to north central combined Panhandles could see
some very light showers late this evening into the overnight hours
when a minor shortwave disturbance passes overhead. Dry air will
remain prevalent however, amounting to only a 10-20% chance for
measurable rainfall. Subtle ridging aloft takes over Monday,
allowing for the start of a much warmer week. Light south winds
and highs in the 80s will return for most of the forecast area as
a result.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Tuesday will be a warm and dry day as zonal flow will continue
across the Panhandles. Highs will almost be 90 across the board on
Tuesday, with a couple of isolated areas in the upper 80s. Overall,
winds will be tame in the 15 to 20 mph range with fairly low RH
values. This will provide elevated to low end critical Fire Weather
conditions. Wednesday will almost be a carbon copy to Tuesday
temperature wise, but we are seeing signs of the dryline backing
into the central Panhandles, and that will bring us the chance of
showers and storms, possibly severe for the central and eastern
Panhandles Wednesday evening. NBM pops have about a 20 to 30 percent
chance for storms in the east on Wednesday evening, and that will
suffice for the time being.
Thursday's highs will be a challenge as it all depends on how fast
the next system moves through. Right now most highs are based on
nearly optimum heating for most areas, as the front may not move
through until after 1 pm for the OK Panhandle. That will give ample
time for most areas to warm up. Position of the trough and residual
moisture will play a role in the pop potential, but for now keeping
NBM's 20-30 percent for the southeast in the afternoon, and for the
rest of the Panhandles during the evening hours. Most likely this
will be isolated to widely scattered showers if we do get anything,
so it's not looking that great for areas in the central an western
Panhandles. The front looks pretty strong given the nearly 20C
850mb temperature drop, and therefore would expect strong wind
behind this front, with the winds relaxing after sunrise on Friday.
Again, overnight showers will be possible as well, depending on the
track and position of the system. Highs on Friday only be in the
upper 60s to near 70. Saturday will likely return to the upper 70s
to lower 80s as zonal flow with warmer air returns. NBM is giving
some pops on Saturday, but overall it looks contingent on a
shortwave moving through helping to kick off some storms. So
confidence is not very high in the pops.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Some sporadic gusts will still be possible in the first few hours
of the period, but winds will generally remain on the lower side
out of the northwest through Sunday evening. Could see some MVFR
ceilings near KGUY towards the end of the period, but the vast
majority of clouds at any site will be mid to high level.
Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 74 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 75 42 81 52 / 10 10 10 0
Boise City OK 68 41 78 46 / 10 20 0 0
Borger TX 78 48 85 53 / 0 10 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 75 44 83 49 / 0 10 0 0
Canyon TX 74 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 76 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 71 39 79 44 / 10 10 0 0
Guymon OK 71 42 80 47 / 10 10 10 0
Hereford TX 76 44 82 50 / 0 10 0 0
Lipscomb TX 76 46 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
Pampa TX 74 47 81 53 / 0 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 78 49 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 79 49 82 55 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...38
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20240428T0756.txt
974
FXUS64 KAMA 280530
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low centered over
the Four Corners Region. The associated trough can also be seen
on GOES water vapor imagery bringing southwest flow aloft and
thunderstorms on the leading edge of this trough. Some
thunderstorms were present this morning in the southeastern TX
Panhandle, with the activity now shifted further east in western
OK. Looking as surface observations the the current dryline is
still trying to hang on to the TX/OK state line in the eastern
Panhandles. Dozier currently has a dewpoint of 57, however, the
winds have shifted more southwesterly while Childress has
southerly winds and a Td of 67. Wellington also has WSW winds with
a Td still around 64. Will have to keep an eye on this far
southeastern TX Panhandle around Collingsworth County for
additional thunderstorm development if this dryline hangs on or
retreats after a mixing east slightly. Thunderstorms may have the
potential to be severe, however, the tornado threat should be
further east out in front of the dryline.
The aforementioned upper level trough is in fact taking on a more
negative tilt with higher winds aloft being pushed further to the
east. This may keep some of the higher winds previously though to
occur across the west from mixing and limiting the max wind gusts
for areas in the Red Flag Warning today. Also, a surface front has
entered the far northwestern corner of Cimarron County. This front
is supposed to move into the area tonight, and should have
relatively light winds behind it. As the H5 low moves into eastern
CO tonight model guidance suggests additional PVA coming across
the central Panhandles, with CAMs suggesting showers between 11PM
and 3 AM Sunday. However, if you look at forecast soundings there
is quite the dewpoint depression at the surface, suggesting virga
showers and potential wind gusts with the dry conditions at the
surface. Only expecting sprinkles with maybe a few areas possibly
measuring a hundredth or two if the cold front can help close that
inverted V a bit.
Tomorrow, thanks to the front tonight, the northwestern combined
Panhandles may only see highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70
with the southeastern combined Panhandles in the mid 70s to
possibly 80 in Wellington. Winds are expected to be out of the
north to northwest around 10 to 15 mph tomorrow becoming light,
less than 10, going into the evening. As the center of the main H5
low is expected to be well up into NE/SD tomorrow evening, a
shortwave may enter the far northwestern combined Panhandles
introducing some light showers. Again, these showers may not be
very productive as there may still be a decent T/Td depression at
the surface. Other than that lows generally in the 40s expected
tomorrow night with winds still north to easterly around 5 to 10
mph.
36
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
The warm up commences on Monday and continues through Wednesday.
Upper level heights increase behind our weekend storm and the flow
becomes more zonal for Monday and Tuesday and then starts to become
more southwest on Wednesday. The forecast will also remain dry for
Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, a dryline sets up in the eastern
Panhandles and an upper level disturbance moves across to help
produce showers and thunderstorms in this area through Wednesday
night. A cold front moves through the Panhandles early on Thursday
as an upper level short wave moves across the northern Rockies onto
the northern Plains. Upslope flow along with other weak disturbances
moving through the flow may keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms going through Friday. However, the models do not agree
on the timing or the strength of the northern stream system for
Thursday and Friday, so the timing of any rain and the timing of
the cold front will likely change.
High temperatures are expected to be above normal Monday through
Thursday with the possibility of below normal temperatures on
Friday. The warmest days are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday
where many places may be a few degree either side of 90.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Some sporadic gusts will still be possible in the first few hours
of the period, but winds will generally remain on the lower side
out of the northwest through Sunday evening. Could see some MVFR
ceilings near KGUY towards the end of the period, but the vast
majority of clouds at any site will be mid to high level.
Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 74 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 75 42 81 52 / 10 10 10 0
Boise City OK 68 41 78 46 / 10 20 0 0
Borger TX 78 48 85 53 / 0 10 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 75 44 83 49 / 0 10 0 0
Canyon TX 74 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 76 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 71 39 79 44 / 10 10 0 0
Guymon OK 71 42 80 47 / 10 10 10 0
Hereford TX 76 44 82 50 / 0 10 0 0
Lipscomb TX 76 46 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
Pampa TX 74 47 81 53 / 0 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 78 49 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 79 49 82 55 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...38
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20240428T0530.txt
