272 
FXUS64 KAMA 021104
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Conditions are expected to be favorable for frost this morning 
  in the western and northern combined Panhandles. 

- Showers will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively higher
  confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance 
  for an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. 

- Cannot rule out wintry precipitation in the far northwestern
  Oklahoma Panhandle. No accumulation is expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A shortwave trough off to the west of the Panhandles will track 
southeast through tonight and Saturday. The stronger forcing and 
moisture associated with this system will stay off to the west and 
south of the Panhandles, though there is around a 10% or less chance 
for a few isolated showers in the southwestern Texas Panhandle 
Saturday afternoon. Otherwise it will be a very pleasant day across 
the area with highs in the 70s with 5 to 10 mph winds and a sunny 
sky.

The trough will move off toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday, and 
another trough will dip down toward the coast of California. In 
response, we'll see a ridge build downstream of this trough over the 
southern High Plains. A surface low will develop through the day on 
Sunday resulting in warmer than normal temperatures and breezy 
conditions.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Going into Monday, a trough is favored to be over California with a 
ridge building downstream. A surface low is currently favored to 
develop in southwestern Kansas or the northern combined Panhandles 
throughout Monday. A steep surface pressure gradient should develop 
mostly south of the surface low, while those that are closer to the 
low will steep calmer winds. Widespread 80s to low-90s highs can be 
expected across the Panhandles. Some model guidance suggests some 
mid-level vorticity will stream across the Oklahoma Panhandle; can't 
entirely rule out virga that could eventually result in some light 
rain, but the chance for measurable rain is very low at this point.

The previously mentioned trough will begin to march eastward Monday 
night through Tuesday as another trough dips southward from Canada. 
A cold front will move into the Panhandles during the day on 
Tuesday. Beyond this feature, confidence in the forecast decreases 
substantially. There are many varying scenarios regarding the speed, 
track, and strength of the two relevant troughs which greatly 
decreases confidence on all aspects of precipitation potential 
(i.e., timing, amounts, location of greatest and least amounts). 
There is also a glaring red flag in this setup: hints of a dry 
slot. Operational model guidance is showing fairly strong negative
700mb theta-e advection into an area where the model is producing
precipitation. We have seen time and again where models will try 
to do this, but we ultimately see nothing happen due to mid-level 
dry air entrainment. 

The NBM currently has 15-40% PoPs in the southern Texas Panhandle 
and 40-80% in the northern combined Panhandles for Tuesday night. 
This is likely too broad brushed, and we should ultimately see a 
tighter gradient between likely PoPs and low to no PoPs. However, 
where this gradient ends up will depend on the previously discussed 
uncertainties revolving around the troughs as the dry slot will
shift with it. For now, the most likely area for precipitation 
will be near the low as that is where the strongest forcing and 
most favorable moisture will be. Cannot rule out wintry 
precipitation in the northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle, near the 
low, as the airmass associated with this system will be 
anomalously cool.

In short, there are certainly failure modes for this setup where we 
could see PoPs quickly decrease as we get closer to the event. Given 
the way that this year has gone, won't be surprised if the dry slot 
ends up over the Panhandles while the Oklahoma Panhandle or 
southwestern Kansas/southeastern Colorado gets some potentially 
beneficial rain. Again, it's important to remember that the track of 
the troughs will shift the dry slot with it. 

Wednesday will be a seasonably cool day with highs in the 50s in the 
north to upper-60s to around 70 in the south. Rain could still 
linger in the north into Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is very 
low at this time as dry air should be advecting into the Panhandles 
throughout the day. 

Forecast uncertainties continue into Thursday and Friday due to
variations of the speed of the troughs. Generally, though, heights
aloft will eventually rise and we should see temperatures warm 
quickly into the 80s by Friday.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Overall winds will be less than 10kts at all TAF sites and
mainly out of the west to to southwest. 

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001>004-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...89


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260502T1104.txt



064 
FXUS64 KAMA 020453
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1153 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Conditions are expected to be favorable for frost Saturday morning 
in the western and northern combined Panhandles. 

- Showers will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively 
higher confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance 
for an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. 

- Cannot rule out wintry precipitation in the far northwestern
  Oklahoma Panhandle. No accumulation is expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A shortwave trough off to the west of the Panhandles will track 
southeast through tonight and Saturday. The stronger forcing and 
moisture associated with this system will stay off to the west and 
south of the Panhandles, though there is around a 10% or less chance 
for a few isolated showers in the southwestern Texas Panhandle 
Saturday afternoon. Otherwise it will be a very pleasant day across 
the area with highs in the 70s with 5 to 10 mph winds and a sunny 
sky.

The trough will move off toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday, and 
another trough will dip down toward the coast of California. In 
response, we'll see a ridge build downstream of this trough over the 
southern High Plains. A surface low will develop through the day on 
Sunday resulting in warmer than normal temperatures and breezy 
conditions.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Going into Monday, a trough is favored to be over California with a 
ridge building downstream. A surface low is currently favored to 
develop in southwestern Kansas or the northern combined Panhandles 
throughout Monday. A steep surface pressure gradient should develop 
mostly south of the surface low, while those that are closer to the 
low will steep calmer winds. Widespread 80s to low-90s highs can be 
expected across the Panhandles. Some model guidance suggests some 
mid-level vorticity will stream across the Oklahoma Panhandle; can't 
entirely rule out virga that could eventually result in some light 
rain, but the chance for measurable rain is very low at this point.

The previously mentioned trough will begin to march eastward Monday 
night through Tuesday as another trough dips southward from Canada. 
A cold front will move into the Panhandles during the day on 
Tuesday. Beyond this feature, confidence in the forecast decreases 
substantially. There are many varying scenarios regarding the speed, 
track, and strength of the two relevant troughs which greatly 
decreases confidence on all aspects of precipitation potential 
(i.e., timing, amounts, location of greatest and least amounts). 
There is also a glaring red flag in this setup: hints of a dry 
slot. Operational model guidance is showing fairly strong negative
700mb theta-e advection into an area where the model is producing
precipitation. We have seen time and again where models will try 
to do this, but we ultimately see nothing happen due to mid-level 
dry air entrainment. 

The NBM currently has 15-40% PoPs in the southern Texas Panhandle 
and 40-80% in the northern combined Panhandles for Tuesday night. 
This is likely too broad brushed, and we should ultimately see a 
tighter gradient between likely PoPs and low to no PoPs. However, 
where this gradient ends up will depend on the previously discussed 
uncertainties revolving around the troughs as the dry slot will
shift with it. For now, the most likely area for precipitation 
will be near the low as that is where the strongest forcing and 
most favorable moisture will be. Cannot rule out wintry 
precipitation in the northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle, near the 
low, as the airmass associated with this system will be 
anomalously cool.

In short, there are certainly failure modes for this setup where we 
could see PoPs quickly decrease as we get closer to the event. Given 
the way that this year has gone, won't be surprised if the dry slot 
ends up over the Panhandles while the Oklahoma Panhandle or 
southwestern Kansas/southeastern Colorado gets some potentially 
beneficial rain. Again, it's important to remember that the track of 
the troughs will shift the dry slot with it. 

Wednesday will be a seasonably cool day with highs in the 50s in the 
north to upper-60s to around 70 in the south. Rain could still 
linger in the north into Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is very 
low at this time as dry air should be advecting into the Panhandles 
throughout the day. 

Forecast uncertainties continue into Thursday and Friday due to
variations of the speed of the troughs. Generally, though, heights
aloft will eventually rise and we should see temperatures warm 
quickly into the 80s by Friday.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be
less than 10 kts throughout this period, and at times variable at
5 kts or less.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>004-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260502T0453.txt



992 
FXUS64 KAMA 020401
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1101 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Conditions are expected to be favorable for frost Saturday morning 
in the western and northern combined Panhandles. 

- Showers will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively 
higher confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low chance 
for an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. 

- Cannot rule out wintry precipitation in the far northwestern
  Oklahoma Panhandle. No accumulation is expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A shortwave trough off to the west of the Panhandles will track 
southeast through tonight and Saturday. The stronger forcing and 
moisture associated with this system will stay off to the west and 
south of the Panhandles, though there is around a 10% or less chance 
for a few isolated showers in the southwestern Texas Panhandle 
Saturday afternoon. Otherwise it will be a very pleasant day across 
the area with highs in the 70s with 5 to 10 mph winds and a sunny 
sky.

The trough will move off toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday, and 
another trough will dip down toward the coast of California. In 
response, we'll see a ridge build downstream of this trough over the 
southern High Plains. A surface low will develop through the day on 
Sunday resulting in warmer than normal temperatures and breezy 
conditions.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Going into Monday, a trough is favored to be over California with a 
ridge building downstream. A surface low is currently favored to 
develop in southwestern Kansas or the northern combined Panhandles 
throughout Monday. A steep surface pressure gradient should develop 
mostly south of the surface low, while those that are closer to the 
low will steep calmer winds. Widespread 80s to low-90s highs can be 
expected across the Panhandles. Some model guidance suggests some 
mid-level vorticity will stream across the Oklahoma Panhandle; can't 
entirely rule out virga that could eventually result in some light 
rain, but the chance for measurable rain is very low at this point.

The previously mentioned trough will begin to march eastward Monday 
night through Tuesday as another trough dips southward from Canada. 
A cold front will move into the Panhandles during the day on 
Tuesday. Beyond this feature, confidence in the forecast decreases 
substantially. There are many varying scenarios regarding the speed, 
track, and strength of the two relevant troughs which greatly 
decreases confidence on all aspects of precipitation potential 
(i.e., timing, amounts, location of greatest and least amounts). 
There is also a glaring red flag in this setup: hints of a dry 
slot. Operational model guidance is showing fairly strong negative
700mb theta-e advection into an area where the model is producing
precipitation. We have seen time and again where models will try 
to do this, but we ultimately see nothing happen due to mid-level 
dry air entrainment. 

The NBM currently has 15-40% PoPs in the southern Texas Panhandle 
and 40-80% in the northern combined Panhandles for Tuesday night. 
This is likely too broad brushed, and we should ultimately see a 
tighter gradient between likely PoPs and low to no PoPs. However, 
where this gradient ends up will depend on the previously discussed 
uncertainties revolving around the troughs as the dry slot will
shift with it. For now, the most likely area for precipitation 
will be near the low as that is where the strongest forcing and 
most favorable moisture will be. Cannot rule out wintry 
precipitation in the northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle, near the 
low, as the airmass associated with this system will be 
anomalously cool.

In short, there are certainly failure modes for this setup where we 
could see PoPs quickly decrease as we get closer to the event. Given 
the way that this year has gone, won't be surprised if the dry slot 
ends up over the Panhandles while the Oklahoma Panhandle or 
southwestern Kansas/southeastern Colorado gets some potentially 
beneficial rain. Again, it's important to remember that the track of 
the troughs will shift the dry slot with it. 

Wednesday will be a seasonably cool day with highs in the 50s in the 
north to upper-60s to around 70 in the south. Rain could still 
linger in the north into Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is very 
low at this time as dry air should be advecting into the Panhandles 
throughout the day. 

Forecast uncertainties continue into Thursday and Friday due to
variations of the speed of the troughs. Generally, though, heights
aloft will eventually rise and we should see temperatures warm 
quickly into the 80s by Friday.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
be westerly to northwesterly, and at times variable, at 5-10 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>004-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260502T0401.txt



751 
FXUS64 KAMA 020352 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1052 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

-Scattered rain showers for the Panhandles today with light
 rainfall amounts possible.

-Frost conditions tonight for portions of the Panhandles with
 temperatures dropping into the mid 30s.
 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Latest 18Z radar and obs continue to show widely scattered rain 
showers across a good portions of the combined Panhandles out
ahead of a H500 low amplitude positive tilted trough. Rainfall
totals reached a bit over a quarter of an inch for some areas in 
the western Panhandles, but not much more than that unfortunately
expected for today. The more organized and strong trough
perturbation further south over the Permian Basin has robbed the 
Panhandles of the deep moisture transport. Rain activity overall
for the Panhandles will clear out later this evening. With skies
clearing out, light winds, and residual low level moisture in the
Panhandles, temperatures will drop as a sfc high pressure system 
shifts south into the Panhandles. With these components, frost 
conditions will be possible, mainly for the Oklahoma and portions 
of the Texas Panhandle early tomorrow morning.

A mid level ridge should move northeast into the Panhandles to
start the weekend, bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will
rebound back into the 70s for Saturday, near average for early
May.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Dry conditions continue Sunday into early next week ahead of our 
next potential weather system with temperatures near to above 
average for early May. Latest 01/12Z model and numerical guidance
are hinting at a cold front moving into the northern combined 
Panhandles where showers and thunderstorms could develop. Will 
watch trends closely throughout the next few days. High 
temperatures behind the front by mid week will drop back to near 
or even slightly below average. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
be westerly to northwesterly, and at times variable, at 5-10 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>004-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260502T0352.txt



585 
FXUS64 KAMA 012247
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

-Scattered rain showers for the Panhandles today with light
 rainfall amounts possible.

-Frost conditions tonight for portions of the Panhandles with
 temperatures dropping into the mid 30s. Rainfall totals as of the
 latest 18Z obs 
 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Latest 18Z radar and obs continue to show widely scattered rain 
showers across a good portions of the combined Panhandles out
ahead of a H500 low amplitude positive tilted trough. Rainfall
totals reached a bit over a quarter of an inch for some areas in 
the western Panhandles, but not much more than that unfortunately
expected for today. The more organized and strong trough
perturbation further south over the Permian Basin has robbed the 
Panhandles of the deep moisture transport. Rain activity overall
for the Panhandles will clear out later this evening. With skies
clearing out, light winds, and residual low level moisture in the
Panhandles, temperatures will drop as a sfc high pressure system 
shifts south into the Panhandles. With these components, frost 
conditions will be possible, mainly for the Oklahoma and portions 
of the Texas Panhandle early tomorrow morning.

A mid level ridge should move northeast into the Panhandles to
start the weekend, bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will
rebound back into the 70s for Saturday, near average for early
May.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Dry conditions continue Sunday into early next week ahead of our 
next potential weather system with temperatures near to above 
average for early May. Latest 01/12Z model and numerical guidance
are hinting at a cold front moving into the northern combined 
Panhandles where showers and thunderstorms could develop. Will 
watch trends closely throughout the next few days. High 
temperatures behind the front by mid week will drop back to near 
or even slightly below average. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
be westerly to northwesterly, and at times variable, at 5-10 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>004-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260501T2247.txt



446 
FXUS64 KAMA 011849
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
149 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

-Scattered rain showers for the Panhandles today with light
 rainfall amounts possible.

-Frost conditions tonight for portions of the Panhandles with
 temperatures dropping into the mid 30s. Rainfall totals as of the
 latest 18Z obs 
 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Latest 18Z radar and obs continue to show widely scattered rain 
showers across a good portions of the combined Panhandles out
ahead of a H500 low amplitude positive tilted trough. Rainfall
totals reached a bit over a quarter of an inch for some areas in 
the western Panhandles, but not much more than that unfortunately
expected for today. The more organized and strong trough
perturbation further south over the Permian Basin has robbed the 
Panhandles of the deep moisture transport. Rain activity overall
for the Panhandles will clear out later this evening. With skies
clearing out, light winds, and residual low level moisture in the
Panhandles, temperatures will drop as a sfc high pressure system 
shifts south into the Panhandles. With these components, frost 
conditions will be possible, mainly for the Oklahoma and portions 
of the Texas Panhandle early tomorrow morning.

A mid level ridge should move northeast into the Panhandles to
start the weekend, bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will
rebound back into the 70s for Saturday, near average for early
May.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Dry conditions continue Sunday into early next week ahead of our 
next potential weather system with temperatures near to above 
average for early May. Latest 01/12Z model and numerical guidance
are hinting at a cold front moving into the northern combined 
Panhandles where showers and thunderstorms could develop. Will 
watch trends closely throughout the next few days. High 
temperatures behind the front by mid week will drop back to near 
or even slightly below average. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Monitoring some MVFR cigs at KDHT to start the 18Z TAF period at 
VFR conditions at KAMA/KGUY. By 00Z, all sites should return to
VFR levels and remain so throughout the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will be light out of the north veering to westerly 
at 5-10 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>004-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260501T1849.txt



548 
FXUS64 KAMA 011745
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Light rain is possible tonight through Friday afternoon across
  mainly the western Panhandles. Model trends continue to reduce
  rain chances and totals across the area.

- Frost and freeze conditions may occur on Saturday morning for
  the central and western Panhandles. Frost has become the main
  concern as chances for freezing temperatures have decreased. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The main message of the short term period revolves around decreasing 
PoPs and QPF today for the entire CWA. The trajectory and better 
dynamics of this incoming system continue to trend southward. So 
much so, that it will leave most of the area unlikely to accumulate 
rainfall over 0.5" in the next 24 hours. The western combined 
Panhandles are still most favored for precipitation compared to the 
rest of the area due to showers lifting and moving off the high 
terrain in New Mexico. The eastern extent of QPF continues to fall 
lower with each new run of the CAMs. Short term models continue to 
suggest that showers will struggle to move out of New Mexico, which 
is supported by lackluster low to mid level Theta-E profiles in our 
area. Theta-E values are still high enough to allow for clouds 
across High Plains. Overcast cloud coverage and light northerly 
winds will keep most of the combined Panhandles in the 50s today.

As a surface high pushes south tonight, winds in the region will 
become light and stay that way through the rest of the short period. 
Clouds are also expected to clear out quickly early Saturday 
morning. Conditions for frost development, especially across the 
west, remain favorable. However, there are still some caveats on 
whether temperatures will reach freezing conditions. Forecast 
dewpoint temperatures continue to stay above 32 degrees for much of 
the area due to the moisture expected. If we manage to over perform 
on precipitation or cloud coverage lingers too long, temperatures 
may only get down to the mid 30s. Given the high relative humidity, 
frost is the main hazard Saturday morning. We will still monitor the 
potential for both hazards as we get closer in time, since we cannot 
rule out a few sites dropping below freezing for a short time before 
stabilizing to a warmer temperature. Product issuance may become 
necessary down the line for these reasons.

For the rest of Saturday, winds will stay light as mentioned. Highs 
will rebound to the 70s areawide and cloud coverage will stay mostly 
sunny. Chances for precipitation to carry over into Saturday are 
very low for our FA. 

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

As the previous system exits, upper level ridging will return over 
the Panhandle region for the start of the extended period. This 
pattern will not have much of a chance to settle, as a large scale 
low pressure system redevelops west of the Continental Divide and
progresses eastward. A cold front moving out of Canada is also 
forecast to enter the High Plains by midweek.

High temperatures will return to seasonal averages by Sunday, but
they will be much warmer on Monday. As our next cold front moves 
through, high will drop back into the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Temperatures will recover once warm air is reintroduced on 
Thursday. Surface winds will mostly be out of the southwest next 
week, except for the time frame of the frontal passage where winds
will be northeasterly.
 
Today's rain totals and their effects on fuel quality will be 
driving factors that could mitigate or allow for fire weather 
conditions to return Sunday through Tuesday next week. Winds and 
temperatures will ensure places dry out on those days, but minimum 
relative humidity may still be high enough to hinder fire weather, 
defiantly so if we can get some good rain today. (But probably 
not...) Conditions will be monitored as we head towards that time 
frame.

Precipitation is possible as the front moves through next week, but 
long range models are still having a difficult time deciphering how 
far south the moisture will move. Currently, the high PoPs are 
placed in the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwestern Texas 
Panhandle Monday night through Wednesday.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Monitoring some MVFR cigs at KDHT to start the 18Z TAF period at 
VFR conditions at KAMA/KGUY. By 00Z, all sites should return to
VFR levels and remain so throughout the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will be light out of the north veering to westerly 
at 5-10 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>004-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260501T1745.txt



751 
FXUS64 KAMA 011123
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Light rain is possible tonight through Friday afternoon across
  mainly the western Panhandles. Model trends continue to reduce
  rain chances and totals across the area.

- Frost and freeze conditions may occur on Saturday morning for
  the central and western Panhandles. Frost has become the main
  concern as chances for freezing temperatures have decreased. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The main message of the short term period revolves around decreasing 
PoPs and QPF today for the entire CWA. The trajectory and better 
dynamics of this incoming system continue to trend southward. So 
much so, that it will leave most of the area unlikely to accumulate 
rainfall over 0.5" in the next 24 hours. The western combined 
Panhandles are still most favored for precipitation compared to the 
rest of the area due to showers lifting and moving off the high 
terrain in New Mexico. The eastern extent of QPF continues to fall 
lower with each new run of the CAMs. Short term models continue to 
suggest that showers will struggle to move out of New Mexico, which 
is supported by lackluster low to mid level Theta-E profiles in our 
area. Theta-E values are still high enough to allow for clouds 
across High Plains. Overcast cloud coverage and light northerly 
winds will keep most of the combined Panhandles in the 50s today.

As a surface high pushes south tonight, winds in the region will 
become light and stay that way through the rest of the short period. 
Clouds are also expected to clear out quickly early Saturday 
morning. Conditions for frost development, especially across the 
west, remain favorable. However, there are still some caveats on 
whether temperatures will reach freezing conditions. Forecast 
dewpoint temperatures continue to stay above 32 degrees for much of 
the area due to the moisture expected. If we manage to over perform 
on precipitation or cloud coverage lingers too long, temperatures 
may only get down to the mid 30s. Given the high relative humidity, 
frost is the main hazard Saturday morning. We will still monitor the 
potential for both hazards as we get closer in time, since we cannot 
rule out a few sites dropping below freezing for a short time before 
stabilizing to a warmer temperature. Product issuance may become 
necessary down the line for these reasons.

For the rest of Saturday, winds will stay light as mentioned. Highs 
will rebound to the 70s areawide and cloud coverage will stay mostly 
sunny. Chances for precipitation to carry over into Saturday are 
very low for our FA. 

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

As the previous system exits, upper level ridging will return over 
the Panhandle region for the start of the extended period. This 
pattern will not have much of a chance to settle, as a large scale 
low pressure system redevelops west of the Continental Divide and
progresses eastward. A cold front moving out of Canada is also 
forecast to enter the High Plains by midweek.

High temperatures will return to seasonal averages by Sunday, but
they will be much warmer on Monday. As our next cold front moves 
through, high will drop back into the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Temperatures will recover once warm air is reintroduced on 
Thursday. Surface winds will mostly be out of the southwest next 
week, except for the time frame of the frontal passage where winds
will be northeasterly.
 
Today's rain totals and their effects on fuel quality will be 
driving factors that could mitigate or allow for fire weather 
conditions to return Sunday through Tuesday next week. Winds and 
temperatures will ensure places dry out on those days, but minimum 
relative humidity may still be high enough to hinder fire weather, 
defiantly so if we can get some good rain today. (But probably 
not...) Conditions will be monitored as we head towards that time 
frame.

Precipitation is possible as the front moves through next week, but 
long range models are still having a difficult time deciphering how 
far south the moisture will move. Currently, the high PoPs are 
placed in the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwestern Texas 
Panhandle Monday night through Wednesday.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

TAF sites will deal with varying categories for the most part
today, as scattered showers are expected around the central and
western Panhandles. This may cause brief or prolonged MVFR/IFR
cigs. Winds for the most part in the 5-15kt range out of the east
to northeast. VFR conditions look to return after 00z for the most
part.  

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...89


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260501T1123.txt