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202
FXUS64 KAMA 160511
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1211 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Cold wind chills in the teens and single digits are expected to
be present going into this morning.
- Warming trend will look to follow with potential for record
highs late next week with elevated fire weather conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Post frontal surface high winds are expected to calm to below 10
mph overnight going into the morning. Thanks to continuing CAA
overnight, H85 temperatures are progged to drop to -4 to
-7 degrees C by morning. The CAA along with calm winds and
relatively clear skies should allow temperatures to drop into the
mid to upper teens, with maybe some low 20s in the southeastern
TX Panhandle by sunrise. The combined Panhandles will maintain a
N to NW flow aloft through the day today, with ridging to the
west. Near the surface H85 temperatures should rebound to near 2
degrees C in the east and 6 to 7 degrees C in the west by sunset
tonight. This may allow for late afternoon temperatures to warm
into the lower 50s. Surface winds are progged to remain light and
back to the southwest by the evening. Southerly surface winds
along with ridging building in aloft tonight, should allow highs
tomorrow to warm by about 20 degrees. Afternoon temperatures are
progged to be in the 70s for Tue.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Upper level ridging is expected to continue to build through mid
week into the weekend with no rain in sight. The main story will
be temperatures that are progged well above normal, even
approaching record highs. Much of the area is expected to see
afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s Fri and Sat as upper level
ridging dominates, and H85 temperatures approach 27 to 29 degrees
C at the end of the week. Also, need to note that there seems to
be several bias corrected members in the NBM weighing values
higher than many of the raw models. Therefore, temperatures may
come in a couple to three degrees cooler than whats in the
forecast. Depending on the timing of the next cold front late Sat
into Sun, there may still be a large bust potential for
temperatures in the north Sat afternoon. Otherwise temperatures
might hit the lower 90s Panhandles wide on Sat. The Panhandles
should see temperatures back off a bit Sunday after this next cold
front sometime either late Sat or early Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with winds
dropping off to around 10 kts or less, at least through 18Z. Winds
are expected to gradually move from the north back to the west,
eventually becoming southwest late in the period. Skies should
remain mostly clear with maybe a few to scattered high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260316T0511.txt
020
FXUS64 KAMA 152329
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Potentially damaging winds are expected to continue through the
afternoon, leading to reduced visibility due to blowing dust
and difficult travel conditions.
- The strong winds and low relative humidity will support critical
fire weather conditions through the afternoon.
- Cold wind chills in the teens and single digits are expected to
be present tonight into Monday morning.
- Warming trend will look to follow with potential for record
highs late next week with elevated fire weather conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The potent upper level trough currently centered over the plains
will continue digging east southeast across the MS and OH Valley
region through tomorrow, resulting in northwest flow as high
pressure builds off the Baja coast. The cold front has advanced
into the Permian Basin with strong to damaging winds, dust, and
fires in its wake. The strong 60 knot LLJ and rapid height rises
has resulted in widespread 60+ mph north winds across the TX and
OK Panhandles, with the far southwest TX Panhandle being the one
area that has not hit 60mph as of 19z (this area was furthest
removed from the stronger low level jet winds at H85. The strong
CAA and better H5 Vort Advection in the northern Panhandles did
squeak out some snow flurries this morning near Boise City to
Perryton, with no reported accumulation. These showers have been
overcome by dry air and are no longer showing up on radar in our
area. There was some question on the wildfire threat today due to
the cooler temperatures, but a few fires have ignited in portions
of southwest OK and one in Donley County. Dust has been a problem
today, with the latest GOES Dust RGB indicating fairly widespread
areas of dust. Most of this dust has remained lofted with no area
ASOS/AWOS falling below 3 miles, but reports from public and
spotters support localized areas of near zero visibility
especially along US Highway 287 near Claude to Clarendon (worst
conditions with added smoke from "Corner Pocket Fire" near
Greenbelt Lake). Went ahead and issued a Dust Storm Warning based
on these reports along 287 along with additional reports of a
multiple car accident further down 287 near Quanah.
Conditions should dramatically improve after sunset tonight as
surface high pressure moves overhead mostly eliminating winds
after midnight. However, much colder temperatures can be expected
as skies should be clear enough for strong radiational cooling.
Expect lows in the teens tonight with wind chills in the single
digits across the north. High tomorrow will rebound into the 50s,
and winds will be on the low side at 10 to 15 mph.
Ward
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The northwest flow aloft will persist as high pressure builds
across the Desert Southwest and greatly expands through next
weekend. This high pressure will lead to a notable warming trend,
with potentially record breaking high temperatures towards the end
of the week. The latest raw ensemble guidance (LREF) is showing
50th percentile afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s with 90th
percentile values in the low 90s by Friday. Meanwhile, 50th
percentile H5 heights of 594dm are indicated over the Desert
Southwest Thursday into Friday, before slightly weakening and
shifting east through the weekend with another potential cold
front around next Sunday. Will need to monitor for some elevated
fire weather conditions Wednesday through Saturday given how warm
it will be with at least breezy afternoons.
Ward
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Strong northerly winds will continue for another hour or two.
Should see a gradual decrease after dark, with winds eventually
becoming calm. Winds should eventually return to the southwest
later in this TAF period.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-
317.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
OK...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...03
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260315T2329.txt
906
FXUS64 KAMA 151917
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
217 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Potentially damaging winds are expected to continue through the
afternoon, leading to reduced visibility due to blowing dust
and difficult travel conditions.
- The strong winds and low relative humidity will support critical
fire weather conditions through the afternoon.
- Cold wind chills in the teens and single digits are expected to
be present tonight into Monday morning.
- Warming trend will look to follow with potential for record
highs late next week with elevated fire weather conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The potent upper level trough currently centered over the plains
will continue digging east southeast across the MS and OH Valley
region through tomorrow, resulting in northwest flow as high
pressure builds off the Baja coast. The cold front has advanced
into the Permian Basin with strong to damaging winds, dust, and
fires in its wake. The strong 60 knot LLJ and rapid height rises
has resulted in widespread 60+ mph north winds across the TX and
OK Panhandles, with the far southwest TX Panhandle being the one
area that has not hit 60mph as of 19z (this area was furthest
removed from the stronger low level jet winds at H85. The strong
CAA and better H5 Vort Advection in the northern Panhandles did
squeak out some snow flurries this morning near Boise City to
Perryton, with no reported accumulation. These showers have been
overcome by dry air and are no longer showing up on radar in our
area. There was some question on the wildfire threat today due to
the cooler temperatures, but a few fires have ignited in portions
of southwest OK and one in Donley County. Dust has been a problem
today, with the latest GOES Dust RGB indicating fairly widespread
areas of dust. Most of this dust has remained lofted with no area
ASOS/AWOS falling below 3 miles, but reports from public and
spotters support localized areas of near zero visibility
especially along US Highway 287 near Claude to Clarendon (worst
conditions with added smoke from "Corner Pocket Fire" near
Greenbelt Lake). Went ahead and issued a Dust Storm Warning based
on these reports along 287 along with additional reports of a
multiple car accident further down 287 near Quanah.
Conditions should dramatically improve after sunset tonight as
surface high pressure moves overhead mostly eliminating winds
after midnight. However, much colder temperatures can be expected
as skies should be clear enough for strong radiational cooling.
Expect lows in the teens tonight with wind chills in the single
digits across the north. High tomorrow will rebound into the 50s,
and winds will be on the low side at 10 to 15 mph.
Ward
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The northwest flow aloft will persist as high pressure builds
across the Desert Southwest and greatly expands through next
weekend. This high pressure will lead to a notable warming trend,
with potentially record breaking high temperatures towards the end
of the week. The latest raw ensemble guidance (LREF) is showing
50th percentile afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s with 90th
percentile values in the low 90s by Friday. Meanwhile, 50th
percentile H5 heights of 594dm are indicated over the Desert
Southwest Thursday into Friday, before slightly weakening and
shifting east through the weekend with another potential cold
front around next Sunday. Will need to monitor for some elevated
fire weather conditions Wednesday through Saturday given how warm
it will be with at least breezy afternoons.
Ward
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Strong winds will continue out of the north through around 23z
before decreasing between 00z and 03z. Winds will become light out
of the west by sunrise tomorrow morning. Blowing dust will
continue to cause periodic MVFR vsbys at all sites through around
00z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail after 00z.
Ward
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-
317.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
OK...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260315T1917.txt
271
FXUS64 KAMA 151008
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
508 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
- Potentially damaging winds are expected behind a cold front
this morning, leading to reduced visibility due to blowing dust
and difficult travel conditions.
- The strong winds and low relative humidity will support critical
fire weather conditions behind the front.
- Cold wind chills in the teens and single digits are expected to
be present by Monday morning.
- Warming trend will look to follow with potential for record
highs late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Latest satellite imagery continues to track the incoming upper-
level trough and associated cold front with observations at around
9:30 PM CDT having the front about mid-way through Wyoming. This
front is expected to intensify as it approaches the Northern
Panhandles around 5 to 6 pm this morning. Behind this front,
latest CAMs have continue to show a very strong 500 mb jet with
speeds peaking at over 100kt. Where CAMs have deviated however, is
in the mid to low levels of the atmosphere. Currently the latest
runs have see a slight shift in the jet streaks in those levels
with strongest points now settling east of us. Still, the presence
of this front and these jet will be more than enough to see
strong northerly winds Sunday morning and afternoon with current
ensembles even giving us a 50 to 60% chance of seeing gust greater
than 60 mph. Given this a High Wind Warning is present for the
entire Panhandles from 7 am through 7 PM.
Such strong winds are going to come with a slew different
problems. The first of these being the potential to see blowing
dust throughout most of the day. Currently with the expected wind
direction, most blowing dust will likely be more centered on
localized locations. However, the Eastern Panhandles may have
chances to experience a much heavier impact from blowing dust
thanks to the burn scar from the recent fire in Beaver County.
Regardless a Blowing Dust Advisory is also in place for the
Panhandles through 7 PM as well. The second of these problems, is
going be more focused on fire weather. As it stands latest CAMs
have continue to trend to very poor overnight RH recovery with
present observations still below 15%. This will keep the
Panhandles very dry behind the cold front with RH values sitting
between 15 to 20% for the day. Thankfully the much cooler
temperatures following behind the front should reduce ignition
chances. Regardless a Red Flag Warning will be present from 7 AM
this morning and last until 8 PM that night. After which, concern
will then shift to the cold temperature as Monday morning lows
look to be in the teens to 20s with wind chill nearing single
digits. Otherwise, quieter and cooler weather looks to follow
Monday afternoon with highs only reach into the mid to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Beyond the frontal passage Sunday, weather begins to quiet down
and heat up thanks to a building upper-level high pressure system
in the Southwestern United States. This high will see temperatures
quickly rebound with afternoon high temperatures Tuesday back in
the mid to upper 70s. Model agreement looks to have this pattern
hold through most of the week with temperature only getting hotter
and hotter. Potential is even present for afternoon highs to reach
into the 90s as early Thursday with both Friday and next Saturday
seeing chances at record high temperatures. Unfortunately, fire
weather concerns will stay present under these hot and dry
conditions. However, these conditions may only be elevated thanks
to winds staying relatively quite for the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A strong cold front will move through this morning and very strong
northerly winds will follow it. Expecting peak winds to be 30-35
kts with gusts up to around 50-53 kts at each terminal. Reduced
visibility due to blowing dust is expected, but there is
uncertainty regarding how thick the blowing dust will be, thus
how reduced the visibility will be. Amendments will be needed once
this becomes clear. Winds will weaken this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Despite cooler temperatures, dry and very windy conditions will
promote critical fire weather across the Panhandles starting early
this morning. Poor overnight recovery of RH values will result in
minimum RH values of 15-20%. These values will combine with north
winds of 35-45 mph and gusts of 55-60+ mph to create RFTIs of 3-5
for much of the combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Driest
conditions are forecast further west across the Panhandles, while
stronger winds are forecast further east. Regardless, the strong
winds and gusts will be the main component for promoting dangerous
conditions and potential fire spread this afternoon. Any fires on
the landscape ahead of the cold front this morning could become
highly resistant to control as the front moves through with rapid
spread to the south.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-
317.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260315T1008.txt
