782 
FXUS64 KAMA 230519
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

-Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible each day starting
 Saturday, and expanding in coverage daily from Sunday through
 most of next week across the Panhandles.

-Will have to watch for flooding concerns next week due to heavy
 rainfall possible. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Today, mostly isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to 
move off the high terrain and into the northern zones of our CWA. 
PoPs are still not high for the day 1 period due to the low coverage
of storms expected and our lower confidence in their 
sustainability. High temperatures on Saturday will still range in 
the 80's and lower 90's.

Sunday, Better PoP coverage and percentages are expected across the 
area due to the shifting heights in our upper level pattern. The 
best chances for showers and storms tomorrow will be during the 
evening and overnight hours. Only a slight decrease in high 
temperatures is expected on Sunday, with mostly places expected to
be close to their seasonal averages. 

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A deepening H500 trough over the eastern 2/3 CONUS, in-conjunction
with a building ridge over the intermountain west will set the
stage for persistent NW H500 flow and perturbations within the 
mean flow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances throughout the 
long term forecast period. From the previous 24-36 hours in the 
model trends, latest 22/12Z model and numerical guidance and 
latest GFS/ECMWF/-AIFS ensemble members have had a slight drop 
off in percentage (now around 30-40% of members) with widespread 
potential of over 2" of total rainfall starting Sunday through 
Thursday. Slight adjustments in the axis of best moisture 
transport could increase or decrease rain trends, so we will have 
to watch closely. Repeat rounds of heavy rainfall will pose a 
risk of flash flooding, especially early next week with PWAT 
values around 1.5" which is +2 S.D. for August climatology. 
Temperatures throughout the forecast period will likely be below 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions continue tentatively through the 06Z TAF period.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have a low chance to affect the
DHT and GUY terminals this evening. Mentions of thunder in the
TAFs have been left out for now, but we will continue to monitor
trends to see if chances for these site to be impacted increase 
later today.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250823T0519.txt



786 
FXUS64 KAMA 222341
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

-Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible each day starting
 Saturday, and expanding in coverage daily from Sunday through
 most of next week across the Panhandles.

-Will have to watch for flooding concerns next week due to heavy
 rainfall possible. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Dry conditions will continue to be present across all of the
Panhandles through tomorrow as latest satellite analysis shows 
dry air throughout the column. In-conjunction with H500 
northeasterly flow, large scale subsidence should keep dry 
conditions through tomorrow with near average high temperatures 
in the low 90s this afternoon. By tomorrow evening, the first of 
several disturbances in the mid levels as H500 flow shifts to 
northwesterly as the main high elongated southeastward into west 
Texas. This will result in around 20-25% chance of a shower or 
thunderstorm tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will range
from the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures tomorrow 
night in the lower to mid 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A deepening H500 trough over the eastern 2/3 CONUS, in-conjunction
with a building ridge over the intermountain west will set the
stage for persistent NW H500 flow and perturbations within the 
mean flow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances throughout the 
long term forecast period. From the previous 24-36 hours in the 
model trends, latest 22/12Z model and numerical guidance and 
latest GFS/ECMWF/-AIFS ensemble members have had a slight drop 
off in percentage (now around 30-40% of members) with widespread 
potential of over 2" of total rainfall starting Sunday through 
Thursday. Slight adjustments in the axis of best moisture 
transport could increase or decrease rain trends, so we will have 
to watch closely. Repeat rounds of heavy rainfall will pose a 
risk of flash flooding, especially early next week with PWAT 
values around 1.5" which is +2 S.D. for August climatology. 
Temperatures throughout the forecast period will likely be below 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a
very low chance for rain showers and even thunderstorms for
Saturday evening. The chances of these occurring during the TAF
period is to low to be reflected within the TAFs for now. The
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms increases for Sunday
morning so there is higher confidence that they will be reflected
within later TAF packages. For now an increase in cloud cover for
the last line is all that is being reflected within the current 
TAFs. Otherwise generally light winds will be present across the 
panhandles. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250822T2341.txt



087 
FXUS64 KAMA 221710
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

-Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible each day starting
 Saturday, and expanding in coverage daily from Sunday through
 most of next week across the Panhandles.

-Will have to watch for flooding concerns next week due to heavy
 rainfall possible. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Dry conditions will continue to be present across all of the
Panhandles through tomorrow as latest satellite analysis shows 
dry air throughout the column. In-conjunction with H500 
northeasterly flow, large scale subsidence should keep dry 
conditions through tomorrow with near average high temperatures 
in the low 90s this afternoon. By tomorrow evening, the first of 
several disturbances in the mid levels as H500 flow shifts to 
northwesterly as the main high elongated southeastward into west 
Texas. This will result in around 20-25% chance of a shower or 
thunderstorm tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will range
from the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures tomorrow 
night in the lower to mid 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A deepening H500 trough over the eastern 2/3 CONUS, in-conjunction
with a building ridge over the intermountain west will set the
stage for persistent NW H500 flow and perturbations within the 
mean flow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances throughout the 
long term forecast period. From the previous 24-36 hours in the 
model trends, latest 22/12Z model and numerical guidance and 
latest GFS/ECMWF/-AIFS ensemble members have had a slight drop 
off in percentage (now around 30-40% of members) with widespread 
potential of over 2" of total rainfall starting Sunday through 
Thursday. Slight adjustments in the axis of best moisture 
transport could increase or decrease rain trends, so we will have 
to watch closely. Repeat rounds of heavy rainfall will pose a 
risk of flash flooding, especially early next week with PWAT 
values around 1.5" which is +2 S.D. for August climatology. 
Temperatures throughout the forecast period will likely be below 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the 18Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will be variable at 5-10 kts with mostly clear skies. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250822T1710.txt



563 
FXUS64 KAMA 221651
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1151 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

-Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible each day starting
 Saturday, and expanding in coverage daily from Sunday through
 most of next week across the Panhandles.

-Will have to watch for flooding concerns next week due to heavy
 rainfall possible. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Dry conditions will continue to be present across all of the
Panhandles through tomorrow as latest satellite analysis shows 
dry air throughout the column. In-conjunction with H500 
northeasterly flow, large scale subsidence should keep dry 
conditions through tomorrow with near average high temperatures 
in the low 90s this afternoon. By tomorrow evening, the first of 
several disturbances in the mid levels as H500 flow shifts to 
northwesterly as the main high elongated southeastward into west 
Texas. This will result in around 20-25% chance of a shower or 
thunderstorm tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will range
from the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures tomorrow 
night in the lower to mid 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A deepening H500 trough over the eastern 2/3 CONUS, in-conjunction
with a building ridge over the intermountain west will set the
stage for persistent NW H500 flow and perturbations within the 
mean flow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances throughout the 
long term forecast period. From the previous 24-36 hours in the 
model trends, latest 22/12Z model and numerical guidance and 
latest GFS/ECMWF/-AIFS ensemble members have had a slight drop 
off in percentage (now around 30-40% of members) with widespread 
potential of over 2" of total rainfall starting Sunday through 
Thursday. Slight adjustments in the axis of best moisture 
transport could increase or decrease rain trends, so we will have 
to watch closely. Repeat rounds of heavy rainfall will pose a 
risk of flash flooding, especially early next week with PWAT 
values around 1.5" which is +2 S.D. for August climatology. 
Temperatures throughout the forecast period will likely be below 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Pristine flying conditions are expected over the next 24 hours
with VFR conditions forecast at the terminals. Light winds around
10 kts or less are likely with this TAF cycle.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...05


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20250822T1651.txt