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537
FXUS64 KAMA 180515
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1215 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
- Abnormally warm temperatures in the 90s are expected later this
week into the first half of the weekend, where some record highs
can occur.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
A high pressure system over the southwestern portions of the U.S.
will build eastward into the southern plains over the next couple
days. This high pressure system will keep dry air across the
panhandles through the next couple of days leading to mainly sunny
skies. This will be coupled with broad subsidence heating from
the high pressure. Both of these will continue the warming trend
across the panhandles for both days keeping the temperatures well
above normal. The highs today will range mainly in the 80s and
then increase to the 80s and 90s for Thursday. There is some
limited concern for elevated fire weather conditions based on the
dry conditions. However the lack of any meaningful winds will keep
the fire weather threat low.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
The high pressure system has a very high chance of building
further eastward across the southern plains for Friday and
Saturday. This in turn means that there is a high chance for
further hot conditions across the panhandles for the remainder of
the week. Those most likely high temperatures will remain in the
90s but there is a moderate chance for the triple digits to make
their first appearance for this year. Such heat will be close to
or even breaching record high values. The elevated fire conditions
based on just the dryness has a high chance of remaining across
the panhandles for the rest of the week.
A change up to the weather has an increasing chance of occurring
on Sunday as a weather system flattens out and then pushes away
the high pressure from the southern plains. This would bring a
noticeable dip in the heat that will be baking the panhandles.
This system most likely will not bring any moisture to the
southern plains so conditions are most likely to remain dry. This
can be an issue as the passage of this weather system has better
chances than not to bring breezy conditions. Winds coupled with
dry means increased fire weather conditions that have a low chance
of becoming critical.
The weather pattern is most likely to turn into a neutral west to
east flow for the middle portions of next week. This makes it more
likely for stagnant weather conditions so breezy, warm, and dry
will most likely persist.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Winds will be generally light through this time,
but they will have shifting directions. The winds will most
likely become westerly then northern tonight through Wednesday
morning.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260318T0515.txt
786
FXUS64 KAMA 172303
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
603 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
- Abnormally warm temperatures in the 90s are expected later this
week into the first half of the weekend, where some record highs
are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Temperatures are warming up across the Panhandles today. Overall
highs should top out around 20-25 degree warmer than yesterday, with
highs ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees in some
locations in the Texas Panhandle. The large H500 high pressure
system over southern California, will continue to build over the SW
CONUS through tomorrow with high temperatures continuing to
climb. High temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 80s for
tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies for tomorrow, along with decreasing
wind speeds compared to today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Latest global and numerical mode data continues to build the mid
level high pressure system into the desert southwest U.S. with a net
result of strong WAA into the Panhandles. This will usher in very
warm temperatures across the region, well above average Thursday
through Saturday, even near record breaking heat in some locations.
Going towards the second half of the weekend, a cold front should
enter the Panhandles. Still the dichotomy of datasets with the
latest guidance on how strong the CAA behind the front will be,
so we will have to fine tune those details when they become
available. Temperatures behind the front as of the current
forecast will drop, but still be above average, and will continue
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Winds will be generally light through this time,
but they will have shifting directions. The current southerly to
southwesterly winds will most likely become westerly then northern
tonight through Wednesday morning.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260317T2303.txt
032
FXUS64 KAMA 171654
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1154 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
- Abnormally warm temperatures in the 90s are expected later this
week into the first half of the weekend, where some record highs
are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Temperatures are warming up across the Panhandles today. Overall
highs should top out around 20-25 degree warmer than yesterday, with
highs ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees in some
locations in the Texas Panhandle. The large H500 high pressure
system over southern California, will continue to build over the SW
CONUS through tomorrow with high temperatures continuing to
climb. High temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 80s for
tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies for tomorrow, along with decreasing
wind speeds compared to today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Latest global and numerical mode data continues to build the mid
level high pressure system into the desert southwest U.S. with a net
result of strong WAA into the Panhandles. This will usher in very
warm temperatures across the region, well above average Thursday
through Saturday, even near record breaking heat in some locations.
Going towards the second half of the weekend, a cold front should
enter the Panhandles. Still the dichotomy of datasets with the
latest guidance on how strong the CAA behind the front will be,
so we will have to fine tune those details when they become
available. Temperatures behind the front as of the current
forecast will drop, but still be above average, and will continue
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds are
expected to gradually weaken through the day to 10 kts or less,
turn variable this evening, then become northwesterly tonight.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260317T1654.txt
226
FXUS64 KAMA 171102
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
602 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
- Warm and dry conditions are expected to feed some elevated fire
weather conditions across the Panhandles today.
- Abnormally warm temperatures in the 90s are expected later this
week into Saturday. Caution should be taken when planning outdoor
activities as it is expected to feel like summer, not spring.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
A broad upper level trough can be seen on satellite expanding
over much of the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River
Valley. The combined OK/TX Panhandles are under northwest flow
aloft with a ridge building over CA and the west coast of CONUS.
This high pressure centered just off the coast of the Bay Area in
CA is progged to continue to move east with high pressure building
in for much of the western US and also here in the Panhandles.
Based on the 18Z Mon and 00Z Tue balloon launches, H5 heights have
risen 10 m in that 6 hour period. Rising H5 heights will continue
to be the trend through the week with warming temperatures.
For today, H85 temperatures are expected to increase to around 15 to
18 degrees C late this afternoon. This will help afternoon
temperatures rise into the 70s, about 20 degrees warmer than
yesterday. A weak surface low this afternoon over eastern NM will
help gradient winds pick up to around 15 mph out of the southwest
today, with the highest winds being located in the eastern FA. With
the warm temperatures aiding in low RH values in the 10 to 15
percent range, some elevated fire weather conditions may be present
this afternoon. The warmer H85 temperatures will help overnight lows
tonight stay in the upper 30s to lower 40s as well.
Tomorrow, surface winds settle down even more with some light and
variable winds. H5 heights continue to rise and the combined OK/TX
Panhandles are progged to see afternoon highs in the 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The rest of the week continues to see rising H5 heights with rising
temperatures. Yesterday evening's balloon launch showed H5
heights to be around 566 dam. Even though the FA should stay under
the eastern periphery of the ridge the center of the high is
progged to move into the Desert Southwest with heights over the
Panhandles rising to 586 to 588 dam by Fri and Sat. This is well
above average for this time of year. These H5 heights that are
progged to occur, in March none the less, are closer to the Jul to
Sep average. Sat's highs are currently progged to be in the 90s
with some potential daily high records being broken. Granted the
NBM values may be a bit skewed with bias corrections that may or
may not be correct. Many of the raw models keep Sat's highs around
the upper 80s to low end 90s. This could be a difference of 89 or
95 for Amarillo on Sat.
By Sun, the upper level ridge begins to break down with flow aloft
becoming more zonal. A cold front should be able to come in and
bring temperatures back down a bit on Sun. Still looking at highs in
the upper 70s to the north to upper 80s in the south for Sunday
afternoon, depending on the timing of the front. Next Mon though,
the Panhandles should see more seasonable temperatures, although
still warm, in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds are
expected to gradually weaken through the day to 10 kts or less,
turn variable this evening, then become northwesterly tonight.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...52
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260317T1102.txt
