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394
FXUS64 KAMA 150515
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
- Increasing chances for thunderstorms today, encompassing strong
wind gusts and flooding as the primary hazards.
- Precipitation chances pick up toward the end of the week and
into the weekend, with highs that may be down in the 70s to
close out the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Lee surface low will track southeast into the northern Panhandles
by late morning. This will bring a fairly substantial cold front
with it and we'll have north to northwest winds behind the front.
That will also result in ample lift that will support scattered to
numerous storms across the southwest to northeast Panhandles.
Best chance for storms will be around 4pm today along the highway
60 corridor from Hereford to Canadian as this will be when peak
heating and limited CIN along that frontal boundary will lead to
storm development. This will also lead to a significant difference
in highs across the Panhandles. The northwest to the southeast
will have differences of nearly 20 degrees, with low 80s in the
northwest and over 100 in the far southeast. Rain rates with the
storms that form in the afternoon will be pretty substantial as
PWAT's will range from 1.50-1.80" and given the forcing potential
with the front, will not rule out strong to severe storms Tuesday
evening. Shear is marginal (around 20kts) so there may be some
factors against severe weather. Showers and storms will likely
continue through the evening and into the overnight, as the front
retreats a bit to the northwest, so will the shower activity. So
pops will still be in the 30 to 50 percent range for the northwest
overnight. As we move into Wednesday the upper level ridge over
the Mississippi Valley will begin to retrograde west and push that
warmer and drier air over the Panhandles. Storm chances on
Wednesday will be limited to the far western and northern
Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
With the high over Western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma on Thursday
we should be pretty warm and dry for the most part, and highs will
once again be in the 90s. There's a very low chance <20 percent
that showers/storms will occur in the far western Panhandle. As we
move into Friday a combination of an upper trough from the Pacific
Northwest and a closed low tracking into the Gulf from Florida will
start to suppress the ridge and draw in some moisture to the western
and central Panhandles. We'll be keeping an eye on just what this
next frontal boundary does with the upper trough as it gets closer,
and that will bring cooler temperatures and perhaps another round of
showers and storms on Saturday. Highs are already progged to be in
the 80s to maybe 90 in a few areas on Saturday, with Sunday in
mostly 70s as the front will be through. Monday appears to be
another mild day similar to Sunday, but there are some models
hinting that warmer air may return, so we'll see.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible to start the TAF period at KAMA
as storms remain over the area, but that should be done by 7z.
Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions expected through at least 21z.
Winds will still be a bit breezy out of the south, shifting more
west to northwest at KDHT and KGUY after 14z. Once we get to the
18-21z time frame that's when we expect scattered to numerous
storms to pop across the Panhandles. This will result in possible
MVFR/IFR conditions at all TAF sites, and PROB30's have been noted
to cover these storms.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260915T0515.txt
681
FXUS64 KAMA 142358
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
658 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
- Low (20-30%) chances for thunderstorms across the western and
central Panhandles today.
- Increasing chances for thunderstorms Tuesday, encompassing strong
wind gusts and flooding as the primary hazards.
- Daily thunderstorm chances Wed. and Thurs., and possible pattern
shift next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Southwesterly upper-level flow is resulting in a lee-side surface
low, with a trough extending south into New Mexico. This surface
trough, along with flow across the higher terrain in eastern NM,
will initiate thunderstorms this afternoon and tighten pressure
gradients across the Panhandles. This will lead to sustained winds
of 20-25 kts, with gusts up to 30-40 kts through the afternoon.
Storm motions will be to the northeast around 20 kts, likely
arriving in the northwestern combined Panhandles during the late
afternoon hours. Low- and mid-level lapse rates will help sustain
convection as it moves off the elevated terrain, but CAPE remains
marginal with a max of 500-750 J/kg in the northwest. Lacking
upper-level support means shear is very low, allowing for storms
to merge into clusters as they approach. DCAPE is expected to
remain marginal, along with only 20 kt storm motions will keep
severe wind chances marginal.
On Tuesday, the current surface low pressure will move ESE and
weaken, and a new surface low pressure center will redevelop in
eastern NM. A cold front extending from a large low pressure in the
northern US and attaching the two weak low-pressure centers will
push southeasterly through the Panhandles by the late afternoon
(oriented SW to NE). The most likely concern for severe weather on
Tuesday will be in the NE combined Panhandles where bulk effective
shear is as much as 30-40 kts and MLCAPE values reach up to 1100+
J/kg. This could allow for northeasterly moving discrete cells to
develop before growing upscale into a linear cluster across the
Panhandles. PWAT values of 1.5"+, moderate storm motions of 15-20
kts and a boundary orientation that will allow for training motion
will likely lead to flooding concerns along the initiating boundary.
The highest concern for flooding will heavily depend on where the
cold front convergence initiates precipitation, however, confidence
in a flooding scenario where that happens is increasing. Later
tomorrow night, elevated thunderstorms off of higher elevation in NM
will travel into the NW combined Panhandles into an environment with
~35 kts of bulk shear. This could lead to a further wind threat (as
current CAPE values are not conducive of a large hail threat) into
the night while flooding remains a concern along the boundary.
Ferguson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Daily thunderstorm chances remain on Wednesday and Thursday due to
upper-level SSW flow over elevated terrain in the southwestern US
and shortwave perturbations around the high pressure center in the
SE US. These shower and thunderstorm chances will be focused across
the western Panhandles, as the further off of the higher terrain
they move the less favorable of an environment they will enter. As
we head into next weekend, an upper-level low propagates across
the central US, squeezing and attempting to push out the pesky
ridge in the SE US. This could be the large weather pattern shift
needed to finally dampen high temperatures in the Panhandles. This
would also place the Panhandles in upper-level southwesterly flow
through the weekend, which would promote an increase in
precipitation chances as well.
Ferguson
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Mostly VFR conditions expected through at least 21z. Isolated
showers/storms possible from now through 04z at KDHT and KGUY, but
low confidence to have in PROB30 group, so will amend as needed.
Winds will still be a bit breezy out of the south, shifting more
west to northwest at KDHT and KGUY after 14z. Once we get to the
18-21z time frame that's when we expect scattered to numerous
storms to pop across the Panhandles. This will result in possible
MVFR/IFR conditions at all TAF sites, and PROB30's have been noted
to cover these storms.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...89
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260914T2358.txt
982
FXUS64 KAMA 141841
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
141 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
- Low (20-30%) chances for thunderstorms across the western and
central Panhandles today.
- Increasing chances for thunderstorms Tuesday, encompassing strong
wind gusts and flooding as the primary hazards.
- Daily thunderstorm chances Wed. and Thurs., and possible pattern
shift next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Southwesterly upper-level flow is resulting in a lee-side surface
low, with a trough extending south into New Mexico. This surface
trough, along with flow across the higher terrain in eastern NM,
will initiate thunderstorms this afternoon and tighten pressure
gradients across the Panhandles. This will lead to sustained winds
of 20-25 kts, with gusts up to 30-40 kts through the afternoon.
Storm motions will be to the northeast around 20 kts, likely
arriving in the northwestern combined Panhandles during the late
afternoon hours. Low- and mid-level lapse rates will help sustain
convection as it moves off the elevated terrain, but CAPE remains
marginal with a max of 500-750 J/kg in the northwest. Lacking
upper-level support means shear is very low, allowing for storms
to merge into clusters as they approach. DCAPE is expected to
remain marginal, along with only 20 kt storm motions will keep
severe wind chances marginal.
On Tuesday, the current surface low pressure will move ESE and
weaken, and a new surface low pressure center will redevelop in
eastern NM. A cold front extending from a large low pressure in the
northern US and attaching the two weak low-pressure centers will
push southeasterly through the Panhandles by the late afternoon
(oriented SW to NE). The most likely concern for severe weather on
Tuesday will be in the NE combined Panhandles where bulk effective
shear is as much as 30-40 kts and MLCAPE values reach up to 1100+
J/kg. This could allow for northeasterly moving discrete cells to
develop before growing upscale into a linear cluster across the
Panhandles. PWAT values of 1.5"+, moderate storm motions of 15-20
kts and a boundary orientation that will allow for training motion
will likely lead to flooding concerns along the initiating boundary.
The highest concern for flooding will heavily depend on where the
cold front convergence initiates precipitation, however, confidence
in a flooding scenario where that happens is increasing. Later
tomorrow night, elevated thunderstorms off of higher elevation in NM
will travel into the NW combined Panhandles into an environment with
~35 kts of bulk shear. This could lead to a further wind threat (as
current CAPE values are not conducive of a large hail threat) into
the night while flooding remains a concern along the boundary.
Ferguson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Daily thunderstorm chances remain on Wednesday and Thursday due to
upper-level SSW flow over elevated terrain in the southwestern US
and shortwave perturbations around the high pressure center in the
SE US. These shower and thunderstorm chances will be focused across
the western Panhandles, as the further off of the higher terrain
they move the less favorable of an environment they will enter. As
we head into next weekend, an upper-level low propagates across
the central US, squeezing and attempting to push out the pesky
ridge in the SE US. This could be the large weather pattern shift
needed to finally dampen high temperatures in the Panhandles. This
would also place the Panhandles in upper-level southwesterly flow
through the weekend, which would promote an increase in
precipitation chances as well.
Ferguson
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout all TAF sites for the 18Z
TAF period. There is a low chance for a potential TS for KDHT as
we approach 00Z, but confidence is too low to include in TAF at
this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be
out of the south to southwest at 10-20 kts, with gusts up to 30
kts at times.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260914T1841.txt
147
FXUS64 KAMA 141731
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1231 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
-Favorable weather pattern throughout the coming week for near daily
rain chances, most days favoring the western Panhandles.
-Tuesday's cold front will have the best chances of
precipitation, and will not rule out localized flooding as the
primary concern with storms on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Loss of daytime heating will lead to storms being on a downward
trend overnight. Still might get some isolated to scattered showers
off of outflow boundaries, but mainly in the north and western
Panhandles. The main concern today will be tighter surface
gradients from a lee surface low setting up in eastern CO. This
along with a modest 850/700mb jet over the Panhandles will set up
breezy south to south southwest winds in the 15-25 mph range with
gusts up to 35 mph. This will be more of a Fire Weather concern as
we still have some very dry fuels out there and this will put
portions of the Panhandles into elevated to near critical Fire
Weather conditions. A low chance of showers/storms in the northwest
Panhandles as isolated to scattered showers off the mountains may
merge into a cluster in the late evening to early overnight hours.
Storms should be pretty tame in the evening as CAPE and DCAPE values
are pretty marginal. Looking at forecast soundings tonight, there's
a low chance (~20 percent) that these residual showers in the
northwest could result in heat bursts with winds 50 to 60 mph.
As we move into Tuesday that lee surface low will track southeast
into the northern Panhandles by mid to late afternoon. This will
bring a fairly substantial cold front with it and we'll have north
to northwest winds behind the front. That will also result in ample
lift that will support scattered to numerous storms across the
southwest to northeast Panhandles. Therefore highs will be vastly
different from the northwest to the southeast. Given the earlier
arrival of the front the northwest Panhandles may be in the low to
mid 80s and the southeast is still looking to be very close, if not
break the 100 degree mark. We do expect decent rain rates along the
front with the storms as PWAT's will range from 1.40-1.80" and given
the forcing potential with the front, will not rule out strong to
severe storms Tuesday evening. Shear is still a marginal so there
may be some factors against severe weather. Showers and storms will
likely continue through the evening and into the overnight, and
winds will eventually shift back out of the south by the late
overnight as the system that brought the front will be far enough to
the east and the upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will
begin to retrograde west and push that warmer and drier air over the
Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
With the ridge building west that will bring drier conditions to
portions of the southeast to possibly central Panhandles and the
western Panhandles will still have some moisture available for
storms on Wednesday. This will be mainly north and west of
an Amarillo to Canadian line.
Thursday through Sunday will be interesting as far as rain chances.
The ridge of high pressure is still tracking further west, as a
closed low undercuts the ridge over FL and into the Gulf (possible
tropical system development down the line). At the same time the
as this low tracks west toward the northeast Texas coast, another
upper trough will swing in from the Pacific Northwest and start to
really squeeze off this ridge and dissolve it out. This will bring
increase chances of showers and storms to the Panhandles for the
majority of the extended, but the extent of where and how much
rainfall will occur is still highly in question. But it sure looks
like a pattern chance to near normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation is on the way to the Panhandles for the extended.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout all TAF sites for the 18Z
TAF period. There is a low chance for a potential TS for KDHT as
we approach 00Z, but confidence is too low to include in TAF at
this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be
out of the south to southwest at 10-20 kts, with gusts up to 30
kts at times.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260914T1731.txt
869
FXUS64 KAMA 141132
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
-Favorable weather pattern throughout the coming week for near daily
rain chances, most days favoring the western Panhandles.
-Tuesday's cold front will have the best chances of
precipitation, and will not rule out localized flooding as the
primary concern with storms on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Loss of daytime heating will lead to storms being on a downward
trend overnight. Still might get some isolated to scattered showers
off of outflow boundaries, but mainly in the north and western
Panhandles. The main concern today will be tighter surface
gradients from a lee surface low setting up in eastern CO. This
along with a modest 850/700mb jet over the Panhandles will set up
breezy south to south southwest winds in the 15-25 mph range with
gusts up to 35 mph. This will be more of a Fire Weather concern as
we still have some very dry fuels out there and this will put
portions of the Panhandles into elevated to near critical Fire
Weather conditions. A low chance of showers/storms in the northwest
Panhandles as isolated to scattered showers off the mountains may
merge into a cluster in the late evening to early overnight hours.
Storms should be pretty tame in the evening as CAPE and DCAPE values
are pretty marginal. Looking at forecast soundings tonight, there's
a low chance (~20 percent) that these residual showers in the
northwest could result in heat bursts with winds 50 to 60 mph.
As we move into Tuesday that lee surface low will track southeast
into the northern Panhandles by mid to late afternoon. This will
bring a fairly substantial cold front with it and we'll have north
to northwest winds behind the front. That will also result in ample
lift that will support scattered to numerous storms across the
southwest to northeast Panhandles. Therefore highs will be vastly
different from the northwest to the southeast. Given the earlier
arrival of the front the northwest Panhandles may be in the low to
mid 80s and the southeast is still looking to be very close, if not
break the 100 degree mark. We do expect decent rain rates along the
front with the storms as PWAT's will range from 1.40-1.80" and given
the forcing potential with the front, will not rule out strong to
severe storms Tuesday evening. Shear is still a marginal so there
may be some factors against severe weather. Showers and storms will
likely continue through the evening and into the overnight, and
winds will eventually shift back out of the south by the late
overnight as the system that brought the front will be far enough to
the east and the upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will
begin to retrograde west and push that warmer and drier air over the
Panhandles.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
With the ridge building west that will bring drier conditions to
portions of the southeast to possibly central Panhandles and the
western Panhandles will still have some moisture available for
storms on Wednesday. This will be mainly north and west of
an Amarillo to Canadian line.
Thursday through Sunday will be interesting as far as rain chances.
The ridge of high pressure is still tracking further west, as a
closed low undercuts the ridge over FL and into the Gulf (possible
tropical system development down the line). At the same time the
as this low tracks west toward the northeast Texas coast, another
upper trough will swing in from the Pacific Northwest and start to
really squeeze off this ridge and dissolve it out. This will bring
increase chances of showers and storms to the Panhandles for the
majority of the extended, but the extent of where and how much
rainfall will occur is still highly in question. But it sure looks
like a pattern chance to near normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation is on the way to the Panhandles for the extended.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
VFR conditions are forecast to hold through the 12Z TAF period.
Strong winds, with gusts up to 35 kts, are expected at all sites
through most of the day. The wind direction will start from the
southwest, but may steadily become southerly by the late afternoon
and evening. A PROB30 has been added for KDHT due to persistent
thunderstorm chances at the terminal this evening. Mentions of
thunder may be included at KGUY with future packages, but
confidence remains too low to include them at this time.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260914T1132.txt
