672 
ACUS03 KWNS 281930
SWODY3
SPC AC 281929

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...
As upper-level ridging increases within the northern Plains, a
shortwave trough in the Southwest will evolve into a nebulous trough
within the southern/central Plains. Stronger mid-level flow will
arrive within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity towards late
afternoon into the evening as a shortwave trough approaches the Baja
Peninsula.

A broad swath of convection/precipitation is expected in association
with the shortwave trough and warm-advection within the Missouri
Valley vicinity. Poor lapse rates and limited buoyancy should limit
the intensity of this activity. Additional storms are possible
during the mid/late afternoon in the lower Colorado Valley into
parts of southern/central Arizona. Cooler temperatures aloft will
support modest buoyancy (500 to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While a
strong storm or two could produce small hail, shear will remain
limited during the afternoon and should keep severe risk low.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS03/20261028T1930.txt



133 
ACUS03 KWNS 280645
SWODY3
SPC AC 280644

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on Friday across
portions of the south-central U.S. as a weak midlevel shortwave
trough continues to slowly lift northeast across the
southern/central Plains. Weak instability and limited vertical shear
will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. 

Further west, southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s to near 60
F surface dewpoints across southern AZ as a weak upper shortwave
trough moves across the Lower CO Valley and Southwest. Cool
temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
relatively moist boundary layer, fostering areas of modest
destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will
be possible, though deep-layer shear is expected to remain somewhat
weak (15-25 kt effective shear). Currently, severe thunderstorm
potential appears limited, but a stronger storm or two could produce
small hail. Trends bear watching as any uptick in instability or
strengthening shear could support a more isolated risk for severe
thunderstorms across southern/central AZ.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS03/20261028T0645.txt