943 
ACUS03 KWNS 010618
SWODY3
SPC AC 010617

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern
Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Mid-MS Valley...

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back
side of an eastern U.S. upper trough. Cold temperatures aloft (near
-20 C at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support
moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. However, boundary
layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front
passage as modified Gulf moisture remains well offshore. Surface
dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures
warm into the 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly
deep-layer flow. Some forecast guidance depicts modest capping
across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. If
storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS03/20260501T0618.txt



316 
ACUS03 KWNS 301929
SWODY3
SPC AC 301928

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia
into northern/central Florida.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to pivot
through the Southeast. A surface cold front will move southward into
the Florida Peninsula.

...Southern Georgia into Florida...
Rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is
expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
Mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern Georgia and North
Florida, diminishing with southward extent. Strong flow within the
850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. Areas that
receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe
storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. At
least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. Both
supercells and small clusters will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concerns. Low-level shear will be
greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet
moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.

..Wendt.. 04/30/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS03/20260430T1929.txt