901 
ACUS03 KWNS 301918
SWODY3
SPC AC 301917

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible across portions of
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Central Gulf Coast states,
and over parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon
and evening.

...OH Valley southward into MS and AL...
A shortwave trough will move from the mid MS Valley southeastward
into the OH and TN Valleys on Saturday, with modest 25-30 kt
midlevel southwesterlies developing ahead of it. At the surface, low
pressure will move across southern IL and IN during the day, with a
cold front extending southwestward across the lower MS Valley by
late afternoon. A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold
front, with 70s F dewpoints.

Areas of early rain/storms are likely to be ongoing within the warm
advection zone east of the low over IN/KY/TN, but southwest surface
winds and heating will result in moderate instability redeveloping
ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE averaging 2000-2500 J/kg. The
front will easily support scattered storms by mid afternoon from IN
southward into MS/AL. Marginal deep-layer shear combined with
substantial moisture content should yield corridors of mixed-mode
storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginal hail.
A weak tornado or two cannot be ruled out where low-level winds are
backed within the very moist/low-LCL environment, but overall it
appears these would be brief.

...Much of eastern NM...
Winds aloft will adjust to more of a northerly direction on
Saturday, with a cold front plunging south into TX. Western portions
of this front will extend into eastern NM, where 50s F dewpoints
will remain, along with easterly surface winds.

Midlevel lapse rates will be relatively steep, with the northerly
flow regime resulting in around 40 kt deep-layer effective shear.
This combination should support a few severe storms capable of hail
or damaging gusts as storms develop over the higher terrain and move
generally southward through the evening.

..Jewell.. 07/30/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS03/20260730T1918.txt



288 
ACUS03 KWNS 300726
SWODY3
SPC AC 300725

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys into the Central Gulf Coast states, and over
parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level trough initially from the Great Lakes into the Ozark
Plateau Saturday morning is forecast to amplify over the lower OH
and the lower MS Valleys through Saturday night. In the low levels,
an area of low pressure is expected to develop from west-central IL
to the vicinity of the IN/KY border by 12Z Sunday. Meanwhile, a
trailing cold front will advance into the lower MS and the TN
Valleys.


...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central Gulf Coast states...

A fairly widespread area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across portions of the lower OH, TN, and
lower MS Valleys. A subset of that convection is likely to persist
into afternoon within the pre-frontal warm sector, aided by height
falls aloft, warm advection, and moisture transport along a 25-35 kt
low-level jet (LLJ). On the western flank of the more persistent
storms, cloud breaks may allow for stronger heating of a moist
boundary layer, yielding a potentially narrow axis of moderate
instability by afternoon ahead of the cold front. 

Diurnally enhanced storms appear likely within the corridor of
greater air mass destabilization, generally from central KY and
middle TN into MS, AL, and potentially western GA. While the
strongest deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of
the warm sector, mainly north of the OH River, an area of stronger
low-level shear may persist across portions of KY and TN, coincident
with the southern extension of the LLJ. Locally damaging wind gusts
appear to be the primary hazard with the most intense storms;
however, some tornado threat could materialize from portions of IN
and OH into middle TN within the zone of stronger low-level shear.


...Central and eastern New Mexico...

There is some model signal for a weak mid-level disturbance to
progress south within the eastern periphery of the upper high on
Saturday. The glancing influence of that feature will combine with
the upslope flow of a moist and moderately unstable air mass to
generate afternoon thunderstorms along the favored terrain. While
vertical shear is not expected to be particularly strong, the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates may support a few severe
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS03/20260730T0726.txt