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077
FXUS64 KFWD 030833
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
333 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New Long Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along and north of
a warm front through Thursday morning across North Texas. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. The
tornado threat is low.
- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
to severe thunderstorms through Saturday.
- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025/
/Through Friday Evening/
A deep upper-level trough will remain anchored over the Desert
Southwest through the short-term forecast period with several
embedded waves in the southwesterly flow aloft keeping unsettled
weather over North and Central Texas through the weekend. A
synoptic front will meander north and south over the region
providing a focus for thunderstorm development through the end of
the week. The front is currently settled from roughly Canton, TX
to Lampasas, TX and will gradually lift northward through the
overnight in response to an increasing southerly low-level jet.
Elevated supercell thunderstorms have started to develop across
portions of the Edwards Plateau and the Big Country near the
center of an 850mb low, but convective initiation will be possible
along and north of the entire warm front through the morning
hours. Most of this activity will remain elevated on the "cool"
side of the surface boundary and rapidly transit east-northeast
through the Thursday morning and exit the region early Thursday
afternoon. Very impressive deep-layer wind shear, relatively steep
mid-level lapse rates, and ~2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will promote a
very large hail threat in any storms that develop (potentially 2+"
in diameter). Localized wind gusts of 55-65 mph will also be
possible. The tornado threat will remain low with this round of
storms and will only materialize with any storms that are able to
ride along the warm front or position themselves on the "warm"
side of the boundary. Many locations across Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley will avoid this round of storms.
Timing the Overnight into Thursday Morning Storms:
West of I-35: 3AM-9AM
Along I-35/DFW Metroplex: 4AM-10AM
East of I-35: 6AM-12PM
Thunderstorms will shift off to the northeast by midday Thursday
with scattered shower activity lingering across northeast Texas
into Thursday afternoon. Cloudy skies will prevail through the day
with locations across North Texas struggling to get out of the 60s
on the cool side of the front (might be a few locations along the
Red River that remain in the upper 50s). A relative lull in
activity is likely through Thursday evening with thunderstorm
chances picking back up across parts of western Central and North
Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning as the low-level jet
ramps back up. Most of this activity looks to remain west and
northwest of the Metroplex through the morning hours.
A more concerning episode of severe weather looks to be setting up
along and east of I-35 Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A
45-55 kt low-level jet is forecast to overlap a destabilizing warm
sector marked by 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Low LCLs, impressive
3CAPE, and strong low-level wind shear will promote a threat for a
few tornadoes. The lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere will be
quite moist and may support a messier convective mode that may
ultimately tamper the tornado threat, but continue to remain
weather aware and check back for forecast updates! Where this
threat maximizes will depend on the ultimate position of the
front, but right now the area of greatest concern looks to reside
along and east of the Hwy 34 corridor Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Storms behind the boundary will still carry a large hail
and damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall starting late Friday
will also begin our period of prolonged flooding concerns across
portions of northeast Texas into the weekend.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/
Starting Friday night - A deep Northern Plains-Southern Rockies
upper trough will contain a closed low over the Desert Southwest,
while a Pacific cold front once again stalls over East and Central
Texas. The upper low will advance east into far West Texas by
Saturday morning before turning northeast across Northwest Texas
Saturday afternoon. Surface based storms along the front may start
to weaken late in the evening across our East and Central Texas
counties with the loss of surface CAPE. A large swath of elevated
convection will develop across the rest of the forecast area
Friday night, however, as strong synoptic scale ascent arrives,
thunderstorm development will also be largely driven by a deep
southerly fetch aloft and subsequent isentropic upglide above the
frontal layer. Around 1500 j/kg of elevated CAPE along with 50 to
60 kt of effective shear will support a large hail threat through
the overnight hours into Saturday morning.
Another inch or more of rain will not be uncommon to end the
week, which will maintain a flood threat across mainly eastern
counties through the overnight/Saturday morning hours. Rain
chances will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening
as the upper low transitions to an open wave while accelerating
off to the northeast, and the cold front pushes southeast into the
Deep South and the northwest Gulf. A second push of cool air will
arrive Saturday night, making for much cooler and breezy weather
on Sunday with afternoon highs generally in the upper 50s.
The axis of the main upper trough will finally shift east of the
region during the day Sunday, while upper ridging builds in from
the west in its wake. Dry weather and a warming trend will ensue,
with Monday highs in the 60s and Tuesday in the mid and upper 70s.
A fast-moving shortwave in the northwest flow aloft will bring
more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday, but at this time it looks like any precipitation
associated with the system will remain northeast of the CWA.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025/
/06Z TAFs/
Cigs will continue to tank to IFR status tonight into Thursday
morning as a warm front currently laid out from KJDD to roughly
KGRK continues gradually lifting northward. IFR will prevail
through much of the morning and may persist through the entire TAF
period over D10 (30-40% chance). Have leaned a bit more
optimistic, bringing low MVFR back to D10 after 18Z. Nonetheless,
widespread IFR is likely again Thursday night. SCT MVFR cigs are
more likely at KACT this afternoon.
Scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are expected to move
across North Texas later tonight into Thursday morning. VCTS will
run over D10 from 09Z-14Z with TSRA impacts to the terminals
likely in between 10Z-13Z. Reduced visibilities due to rainfall
will be possible. A few storms may also carry large hail and
damaging wind gusts. All thunderstorm activity should push east of
the Metroplex by 14Z-15Z Thursday morning with rain showers
lingering into midday.
ENE winds will gradually shift more northerly through the morning
as the frontal boundary shifts back to the south during the day
Thursday. A few gusts to 15-20 kts are not out of the question
during the morning hours.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely over the next couple of days over
parts of North and Central Texas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 60 70 56 62 / 80 60 90 100 70
Waco 81 65 78 58 65 / 50 40 80 100 60
Paris 68 61 76 56 64 / 90 70 90 100 90
Denton 66 54 66 51 61 / 80 70 90 100 70
McKinney 68 59 71 55 62 / 80 60 90 100 80
Dallas 72 61 72 56 64 / 80 60 90 100 70
Terrell 76 64 77 58 66 / 80 50 90 100 80
Corsicana 82 68 81 62 69 / 50 40 80 100 80
Temple 84 67 81 60 69 / 30 40 70 100 50
Mineral Wells 67 54 66 51 61 / 70 70 90 100 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146.
Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for TXZ094-
095-105>107-123.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250403T0833.txt
183
FXUS64 KFWD 030548
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along and north of
a warm front through Thursday morning across North Texas. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. The
tornado threat is low.
- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
to severe thunderstorms through Saturday.
- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Evening/
A deep upper-level trough will remain anchored over the Desert
Southwest through the short-term forecast period with several
embedded waves in the southwesterly flow aloft keeping unsettled
weather over North and Central Texas through the weekend. A
synoptic front will meander north and south over the region
providing a focus for thunderstorm development through the end of
the week. The front is currently settled from roughly Canton, TX
to Lampasas, TX and will gradually lift northward through the
overnight in response to an increasing southerly low-level jet.
Elevated supercell thunderstorms have started to develop across
portions of the Edwards Plateau and the Big Country near the
center of an 850mb low, but convective initiation will be possible
along and north of the entire warm front through the morning
hours. Most of this activity will remain elevated on the "cool"
side of the surface boundary and rapidly transit east-northeast
through the Thursday morning and exit the region early Thursday
afternoon. Very impressive deep-layer wind shear, relatively steep
mid-level lapse rates, and ~2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will promote a
very large hail threat in any storms that develop (potentially 2+"
in diameter). Localized wind gusts of 55-65 mph will also be
possible. The tornado threat will remain low with this round of
storms and will only materialize with any storms that are able to
ride along the warm front or position themselves on the "warm"
side of the boundary. Many locations across Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley will avoid this round of storms.
Timing the Overnight into Thursday Morning Storms:
West of I-35: 3AM-9AM
Along I-35/DFW Metroplex: 4AM-10AM
East of I-35: 6AM-12PM
Thunderstorms will shift off to the northeast by midday Thursday
with scattered shower activity lingering across northeast Texas
into Thursday afternoon. Cloudy skies will prevail through the day
with locations across North Texas struggling to get out of the 60s
on the cool side of the front (might be a few locations along the
Red River that remain in the upper 50s). A relative lull in
activity is likely through Thursday evening with thunderstorm
chances picking back up across parts of western Central and North
Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning as the low-level jet
ramps back up. Most of this activity looks to remain west and
northwest of the Metroplex through the morning hours.
A more concerning episode of severe weather looks to be setting up
along and east of I-35 Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A
45-55 kt low-level jet is forecast to overlap a destabilizing warm
sector marked by 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Low LCLs, impressive
3CAPE, and strong low-level wind shear will promote a threat for a
few tornadoes. The lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere will be
quite moist and may support a messier convective mode that may
ultimately tamper the tornado threat, but continue to remain
weather aware and check back for forecast updates! Where this
threat maximizes will depend on the ultimate position of the
front, but right now the area of greatest concern looks to reside
along and east of the Hwy 34 corridor Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Storms behind the boundary will still carry a large hail
and damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall starting late Friday
will also begin our period of prolonged flooding concerns across
portions of northeast Texas into the weekend.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/
By Thursday night, the earlier wave of activity will be exiting
to the east/northeast. This will not be the end of our week of
unsettled weather. The ever-oscillating frontal boundary will
continue to provide a focus for additional rounds of precipitation
Thursday night through Saturday as the upper level longwave
trough to our west finally begins to spread eastward. Numerous
showers and storms are expected across the region, with the
highest coverage mainly across North Texas both Friday and
Saturday. 0-6km flow remains more parallel to the boundary,
meaning that storms will grow upscale and become more linear.
Ample instability, steep lapse rates between 7-8 degC/km, and
deep layer shear > 40 kts will promote the continued potential of
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds both days.
Additionally, backed low-level winds, efficient streamwise
vorticity ingestion, and 0-1 km shear > 30 kts will promote an
increased tornado threat, particularly for areas near and east of
I-35 on Friday.
Southwest to northeast steering flow and the multiple rounds of
precipitation will allow for training storms, and increase the
flood threat. This is particularly true for areas northeast of the
DFW Metroplex, where 4-5" of total rainfall accumulation is
expected between tonight and Saturday night, with isolated (10%
chance) totals of 8+" where training storms line up. As such, a
Flood Watch has been issued for our northeastern counties
beginning at 1 AM Friday through Sunday morning for this increased
threat. Remember to never drive through flooded roads, and to
always find an alternate route. Elsewhere across North Texas, you
can expect around 1.5" to 3.5" of 72 hour rainfall totals tonight
through Saturday morning, with lower totals down into Central
Texas.
The front will push fully through the region on Saturday,
shunting the rain chances to our east, and bringing gusty
conditions to the region. Expect much cooler conditions behind
the front with afternoon highs mainly in the 50s on Sunday.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
Cigs will continue to tank to IFR status tonight into Thursday
morning as a warm front currently laid out from KJDD to roughly
KGRK continues gradually lifting northward. IFR will prevail
through much of the morning and may persist through the entire TAF
period over D10 (30-40% chance). Have leaned a bit more
optimistic, bringing low MVFR back to D10 after 18Z. Nonetheless,
widespread IFR is likely again Thursday night. SCT MVFR cigs are
more likely at KACT this afternoon.
Scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are expected to move
across North Texas later tonight into Thursday morning. VCTS will
run over D10 from 09Z-14Z with TSRA impacts to the terminals
likely in between 10Z-13Z. Reduced visibilities due to rainfall
will be possible. A few storms may also carry large hail and
damaging wind gusts. All thunderstorm activity should push east of
the Metroplex by 14Z-15Z Thursday morning with rain showers
lingering into midday.
ENE winds will gradually shift more northerly through the morning
as the frontal boundary shifts back to the south during the day
Thursday. A few gusts to 15-20 kts are not out of the question
during the morning hours.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely over the next couple of days over
parts of North and Central Texas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 70 56 64 41 / 60 90 100 80 30
Waco 65 78 60 67 42 / 40 80 90 70 10
Paris 61 76 59 66 42 / 70 90 100 100 30
Denton 54 66 52 62 37 / 70 90 100 80 30
McKinney 59 71 56 63 40 / 60 90 100 90 30
Dallas 61 72 58 65 43 / 60 90 100 80 30
Terrell 64 77 59 67 42 / 50 90 100 90 20
Corsicana 68 81 62 70 45 / 40 80 90 90 10
Temple 67 81 60 71 42 / 40 70 90 60 5
Mineral Wells 54 66 52 62 37 / 70 90 100 60 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for TXZ094-
095-105>107-123.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250403T0548.txt
132
FXUS64 KFWD 030001
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
701 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will begin to develop along a
warm front overnight into the early morning hours across North
Texas. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats. There is a low threat for a tornado or two.
- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
to severe thunderstorms through Saturday.
- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Afternoon/
Much of this afternoon and evening will be rather uneventful for
North and Central Texas with lingering showers and thunderstorms
from earlier already pushing off into East Texas along a weak
frontal boundary that cleared the region through the day today.
The main forecast challenge will be the exact placement of this
boundary as we move through the overnight hours and into Thursday
morning. This boundary will shift to the north as a warm front
starting as early as 10 PM this evening. There is a low chance for
isolated to widely scattered warm advection showers ahead and
along this front as it moves north. Lowering clouds will also
accompany this, leading to muggy and warm conditions overnight.
Convective activity will quickly ramp up as early as 2 to 3 AM
across portions North and Central Texas, generally ahead of the
aforementioned warm front. As the radarscope blossoms, strong to
severe thunderstorms will once again be on the cards for North
Texas - generally along and north of the I-20 corridor.
Atmospheric conditions will once again be supportive of large to
very large hail (upwards of 2+ inches) and damaging winds due to
plenty of instability and shear. There is a low chance for
tornadogenesis in our strongest storms that manage to organize,
and this chance will only increase if they are latched onto the
warm front. This would lead to all hazards and would serve to
increase the hail size potential as well. The timing of these
storms will be important since much of this activity is currently
expected to be ongoing leading up to and during the morning
commute. Convective evolution will likely lead to upscale growth
along the warm front, leading to convective clusters which would
serve to increase the damaging wind threat along and east of the
I-35 corridor through the morning hours. Any remaining activity
will weaken and diminish through the mid to late morning, with
isolated showers pushing off to the east through the afternoon
hours. The frontal boundary will continue to meander across our
coverage area however, with additional rounds beyond this period.
Reeves
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/
By Thursday night, the earlier wave of activity will be exiting
to the east/northeast. This will not be the end of our week of
unsettled weather. The ever-oscillating frontal boundary will
continue to provide a focus for additional rounds of precipitation
Thursday night through Saturday as the upper level longwave
trough to our west finally begins to spread eastward. Numerous
showers and storms are expected across the region, with the
highest coverage mainly across North Texas both Friday and
Saturday. 0-6km flow remains more parallel to the boundary,
meaning that storms will grow upscale and become more linear.
Ample instability, steep lapse rates between 7-8 degC/km, and
deep layer shear > 40 kts will promote the continued potential of
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds both days.
Additionally, backed low-level winds, efficient streamwise
vorticity ingestion, and 0-1 km shear > 30 kts will promote an
increased tornado threat, particularly for areas near and east of
I-35 on Friday.
Southwest to northeast steering flow and the multiple rounds of
precipitation will allow for training storms, and increase the
flood threat. This is particularly true for areas northeast of the
DFW Metroplex, where 4-5" of total rainfall accumulation is
expected between tonight and Saturday night, with isolated (10%
chance) totals of 8+" where training storms line up. As such, a
Flood Watch has been issued for our northeastern counties
beginning at 1 AM Friday through Sunday morning for this increased
threat. Remember to never drive through flooded roads, and to
always find an alternate route. Elsewhere across North Texas, you
can expect around 1.5" to 3.5" of 72 hour rainfall totals tonight
through Saturday morning, with lower totals down into Central
Texas.
The front will push fully through the region on Saturday,
shunting the rain chances to our east, and bringing gusty
conditions to the region. Expect much cooler conditions behind
the front with afternoon highs mainly in the 50s on Sunday.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Concerns...MVFR/IFR ceilings, VCTS/TSRA, meandering warm front.
VFR ceilings will remain in place for most of the TAF sites.
These will drop down to MVFR again tonight, quickly dropping to
IFR as early as 05z across Waco. These will continue north along
a warm front, with a medium chance for IFR ceilings making to the
D10 just around sunrise tomorrow morning. These lowered ceilings
will most likely linger through much of the day and into the
afternoon as the front stalls out across the region with little in
the way of improvement. Impacts will linger through the period.
Otherwise, much of this afternoon and evening will be uneventful
for the TAF sites with much of the earlier shower and thunderstorm
activity pushed off into East Texas. Warm advection showers will
develop along the warm front across much of the D10 as early as
06z with VCTS starting at 08z. CAMs are still focusing in on TSRA
timing which will need to be adjusted in subsequent TAFs through
the night, but 10-12z seems reasonable. Winds will depend on the
placement of the front and where it stalls out, either way - they
should remain at or below 7 knots. This of course will not be the
case nearby any thunderstorms.
Reeves
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible across portions of North Texas over
the next couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 73 61 78 56 / 80 70 90 100 100
Waco 66 82 67 83 60 / 20 40 60 90 90
Paris 59 71 62 77 59 / 80 80 90 100 100
Denton 55 68 56 75 52 / 80 70 90 100 100
McKinney 58 71 60 77 56 / 80 70 90 100 100
Dallas 62 75 62 77 58 / 80 70 80 100 100
Terrell 63 77 65 80 59 / 80 70 80 100 100
Corsicana 68 82 69 84 62 / 40 50 70 90 90
Temple 68 85 69 85 60 / 10 20 50 80 90
Mineral Wells 55 68 56 73 52 / 80 60 80 90 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday morning for
TXZ094-095-105>107-123.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250403T0001.txt
931
FXUS64 KFWD 021939
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
239 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New Long Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will
continue along a cold front near and east of the I-35 corridor
this afternoon.
- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
to severe thunderstorms tonight through Saturday.
- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 108 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to advance through the
the eastern half of the region along a cold front. So far today,
no storms across North Texas have strengthened to severe
thresholds due to the impressive cap in place (as seen on the 12Z
FWD sounding). However, this will not be the case as we head
through the afternoon hours. We will continue to destabilize with
forecast soundings showing the cap eroding across the eastern half
of the forecast area, and latest ACARS soundings out in
Shreveport, LA showing just about an uncapped sounding. With the
storms moving into a more favorable and unstable environment,
there will be better chance for strong to severe storms. Lapse
rates > 7 degC/km and deep layer shear > 40 kts will promote large
hail and damaging winds with any more robust storms. The tornado
threat is on the lower end due to a more unfavorable wind profile
as winds are more veered and streamwise vorticity ingestion is not
maximized, on top of lower 0-1 km SRH and shear. As the broken
line of storms exits into East Texas late today, the front will
become stalled across East and Central Texas this evening as its
upper level support races off to the northeast. We'll see a lull
in precipitation in between shortwaves, making for a relatively
quiet evening before a busy latter half of the week.
Overnight, the stalled front will begin to be pushed back towards
the Red River as a warm front in response to a shortwave
disturbance swinging across the Southern Plains to our northwest.
As this warm front lifts northward, a more widespread round of
showers and storms will spread from southwest to northeast, with
the bulk of precipitation occurring generally along and north of
the frontal boundary. Steep lapse rates around 7-8 degC/km and
deep layer shear > 70 kts would promote another round of strong to
severe storms. This activity would remain mainly elevated, with
large to very large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
Overall, tornado threat during this time would remain the lower
hazard once again as low-level wind directions look to be
unfavorable. However, any storm that is able to become rooted
within the surface along the warm front will have a locally
increased tornado risk tomorrow morning, particularly for areas
east of I-35. The majority of the activity will occur over the
morning hours, with another lull during the afternoon (though
isolated to scattered convection may still occur into the evening
hours across North and Central Texas).
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/
By Thursday night, the earlier wave of activity will be exiting
to the east/northeast. This will not be the end of our week of
unsettled weather. The ever-oscillating frontal boundary will
continue to provide a focus for additional rounds of precipitation
Thursday night through Saturday as the upper level longwave
trough to our west finally begins to spread eastward. Numerous
showers and storms are expected across the region, with the
highest coverage mainly across North Texas both Friday and
Saturday. 0-6km flow remains more parallel to the boundary,
meaning that storms will grow upscale and become more linear.
Ample instability, steep lapse rates between 7-8 degC/km, and
deep layer shear > 40 kts will promote the continued potential of
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds both days.
Additionally, backed low-level winds, efficient streamwise
vorticity ingestion, and 0-1 km shear > 30 kts will promote an
increased tornado threat, particularly for areas near and east of
I-35 on Friday.
Southwest to northeast steering flow and the multiple rounds of
precipitation will allow for training storms, and increase the
flood threat. This is particularly true for areas northeast of the
DFW Metroplex, where 4-5" of total rainfall accumulation is
expected between tonight and Saturday night, with isolated (10%
chance) totals of 8+" where training storms line up. As such, a
Flood Watch has been issued for our northeastern counties
beginning at 1 AM Friday through Sunday morning for this increased
threat. Remember to never drive through flooded roads, and to
always find an alternate route. Elsewhere across North Texas, you
can expect around 1.5" to 3.5" of 72 hour rainfall totals tonight
through Saturday morning, with lower totals down into Central
Texas.
The front will push fully through the region on Saturday,
shunting the rain chances to our east, and bringing gusty
conditions to the region. Expect much cooler conditions behind
the front with afternoon highs mainly in the 50s on Sunday.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/18Z TAFs/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms along a cold front have made
their way east of the I-35 corridor. After this activity moves
into East Texas, there will be a lull in precipitation at all TAF
sites and cigs should lift back to VFR within the next couple of
hours. Wind directions will linger out of the north-northwest
before shifting more easterly as the front is dragged back north
later tonight.
Cigs: Flying weather becomes quite unfavorable after midnight as
MVFR/IFR cigs and precipitation chances return overnight. IFR will
first reach ACT around 06Z with MVFR at D10 around 08Z, then IFR
around 12Z. Have IFR cigs lifting to MVFR mid-late morning, but
there is a chance that they could linger through the afternoon.
There is still uncertainty on exact timing, so this will need to
be watched as new model data comes in.
Precipitation: Best chances for TSRA at D10 are between 09-12Z
and will likely have even lower visibility than 3SM, but this will
be monitored. Scattered showers may linger through the morning
after the bulk of activity passes to the northeast of the TAF
sites. More scattered precipitation will likely not reach ACT
until a few hours later at 15Z.
While ACT will return to south flow overnight, winds in D10 will
stay to the E-ENE through tomorrow morning near the front before
shifting back around to the N-NE.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible across portions of North Texas over
the next couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 78 61 78 56 / 80 70 90 100 100
Waco 68 83 67 83 60 / 20 40 60 90 90
Paris 60 73 62 77 59 / 80 80 90 100 100
Denton 56 73 56 75 52 / 80 70 90 100 100
McKinney 60 75 60 77 56 / 80 70 90 100 100
Dallas 63 77 62 77 58 / 80 70 80 100 100
Terrell 63 81 65 80 59 / 70 70 80 100 100
Corsicana 68 83 69 84 62 / 40 60 70 90 90
Temple 68 86 69 85 60 / 20 20 50 80 90
Mineral Wells 56 75 56 73 52 / 80 50 80 90 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250402T1939.txt
229
FXUS64 KFWD 021808
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will
continue along a cold front near and east of the I-35 corridor
this afternoon.
- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
to severe thunderstorms tonight through Saturday.
- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to advance through the
the eastern half of the region along a cold front. So far today,
no storms across North Texas have strengthened to severe
thresholds due to the impressive cap in place (as seen on the 12Z
FWD sounding). However, this will not be the case as we head
through the afternoon hours. We will continue to destabilize with
forecast soundings showing the cap eroding across the eastern half
of the forecast area, and latest ACARS soundings out in
Shreveport, LA showing just about an uncapped sounding. With the
storms moving into a more favorable and unstable environment,
there will be better chance for strong to severe storms. Lapse
rates > 7 degC/km and deep layer shear > 40 kts will promote large
hail and damaging winds with any more robust storms. The tornado
threat is on the lower end due to a more unfavorable wind profile
as winds are more veered and streamwise vorticity ingestion is not
maximized, on top of lower 0-1 km SRH and shear. As the broken
line of storms exits into East Texas late today, the front will
become stalled across East and Central Texas this evening as its
upper level support races off to the northeast. We'll see a lull
in precipitation in between shortwaves, making for a relatively
quiet evening before a busy latter half of the week.
Overnight, the stalled front will begin to be pushed back towards
the Red River as a warm front in response to a shortwave
disturbance swinging across the Southern Plains to our northwest.
As this warm front lifts northward, a more widespread round of
showers and storms will spread from southwest to northeast, with
the bulk of precipitation occurring generally along and north of
the frontal boundary. Steep lapse rates around 7-8 degC/km and
deep layer shear > 70 kts would promote another round of strong to
severe storms. This activity would remain mainly elevated, with
large to very large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
Overall, tornado threat during this time would remain the lower
hazard once again as low-level wind directions look to be
unfavorable. However, any storm that is able to become rooted
within the surface along the warm front will have a locally
increased tornado risk tomorrow morning, particularly for areas
east of I-35. The majority of the activity will occur over the
morning hours, with another lull during the afternoon (though
isolated to scattered convection may still occur into the evening
hours across North and Central Texas).
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/
A deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest will develop a
closed low as it begins to advance east Thursday night and Friday.
Eastern portions of North and Central Texas may be dealing with
some residual showers and storms Thursday evening, but the focus
will shift north and west as a lead shortwave in the strong
southwest flow aloft helps generate another round of deep
convection Thursday night. Storms will initiate along and
northwest of a northeast-southwest oriented surface front
stretching from Central Oklahoma to the Big Country. This will
place the highest storm chances across the northwest quadrant of
the CWA. With exceptional amounts of effective bulk shear and
steep mid level lapse rates in place, elevated storms north of
the front will pose a large hail threat overnight. Any storm which
may ride the surface front will be capable of all modes of severe
weather.
In fact convection will tend to become more surface based late
morning into Friday afternoon with surface destabilization. These
storms (some severe) will shift east across the I-35 corridor
around midday Friday, then into areas east of I-35 Friday
afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will
all be possible through late Friday afternoon before the lead wave
accelerates off to the northeast.
Any lull in showers and storms will be brief, as the
aforementioned closed low encroaches from the west and a fresh
round of convection fires near and northwest the surface front
(which will have been forced east into Central and East Texas by
this point). Elevated, hail-producing supercells should be the
primary convective mode late Friday evening into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather, however will again be possible
near and southeast of the front. Not everyone will see severe
weather, but just about any location across the CWA will see equal
chance of experiencing a severe storm Friday night. In addition,
multiple rounds of precipitation leading up to Friday night will
make soils more flood prone, increasing the flash flood threat
with time. It's possible that a Flood Watch will be issued at
some point, but a bit too soon at this juncture to nail down the
most likely areas.
Precipitation will finally exit to the east Saturday and Saturday
night as the main trough sweeps east through the Plains and the
surface boundary surges southeast as a cold front. A much cooler
and drier airmass will enter Saturday night and Sunday behind the
front. A pattern reversal will transpire Sunday and Monday as the
upper trough settles over the eastern CONUS and upper ridging
builds in from the west. This pattern shift will bring dry and
seasonable weather to the area early to mid next week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms along a cold front have made
their way east of the I-35 corridor. After this activity moves
into East Texas, there will be a lull in precipitation at all TAF
sites and cigs should lift back to VFR within the next couple of
hours. Wind directions will linger out of the north-northwest
before shifting more easterly as the front is dragged back north
later tonight.
Cigs: Flying weather becomes quite unfavorable after midnight as
MVFR/IFR cigs and precipitation chances return overnight. IFR will
first reach ACT around 06Z with MVFR at D10 around 08Z, then IFR
around 12Z. Have IFR cigs lifting to MVFR mid-late morning, but
there is a chance that they could linger through the afternoon.
There is still uncertainty on exact timing, so this will need to
be watched as new model data comes in.
Precipitation: Best chances for TSRA at D10 are between 09-12Z
and will likely have even lower visibility than 3SM, but this will
be monitored. Scattered showers may linger through the morning
after the bulk of activity passes to the northeast of the TAF
sites. More scattered precipitation will likely not reach ACT
until a few hours later at 15Z.
While ACT will return to south flow overnight, winds in D10 will
stay to the E-ENE through tomorrow morning near the front before
shifting back around to the N-NE.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible across portions of North Texas over
the next couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 63 78 64 77 / 90 80 70 80 90
Waco 82 68 83 68 84 / 40 20 40 50 80
Paris 77 60 73 63 77 / 80 80 80 90 100
Denton 83 56 73 58 74 / 100 80 70 80 90
McKinney 82 60 75 63 76 / 90 80 70 80 100
Dallas 84 63 77 63 79 / 90 80 70 80 100
Terrell 79 63 81 66 81 / 70 70 70 70 90
Corsicana 81 68 83 71 84 / 70 40 60 60 80
Temple 83 68 86 69 86 / 40 20 20 40 70
Mineral Wells 85 56 75 58 74 / 90 80 50 80 90
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250402T1808.txt
888
FXUS64 KFWD 021106
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will
develop along and north of the I-20 corridor along a weak cold
front and shift east this morning into early afternoon.
- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
to severe thunderstorms tonight through Saturday.
- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A broken line of thunderstorms has developed along an eastward-
advancing cold front over northwest Texas. This front will
continue racing east across North Texas this morning reaching the
I-35 corridor, including the DFW Metroplex in the 9-11AM
timeframe. Thunderstorm activity along and just ahead of the front
will exit into East Texas by mid-afternoon. More than sufficient
wind shear and instability will promote a severe weather threat
including hail and localized damaging wind gusts. Isolated
convection has started to develop in a pre-frontal trough from
Montague County to Jack County, but it is uncertain if this
activity will be able to sustain itself so far detached from the
frontal boundary in this high CINH environment. The greater severe
weather threat may not even materialize until this activity shifts
east of the I-35 corridor later this morning as CINH further
erodes. Nonetheless, all of North Texas should remain weather-
aware until the front clears their area. A more substantial severe
weather threat looks to materialize later tonight into Thursday
morning generally along and north of the I-20 corridor.
Langfeld
Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday Afternoon/
The radarscope will remain void of any echoes across North and
Central Texas through much of the overnight due to a strong
capping inversion that has kept convection from developing since
earlier this evening. As a shortwave trough rotates over the
Oklahoma Panhandle/SW Kansas, a cold front extending southwestward
from a surface low nearing the Missouri River Valley will help
initiate a broken line of thunderstorms by 3-4AM Wednesday morning
across northwest Texas. Latest suite of high-res guidance suggests
thunderstorms may develop near the I-35 corridor and the DFW
Metroplex in the ~6-7AM timeframe with the actual front not
approaching the Metro until a couple hours later. Wind fields
would support a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms
initially posing a large hail risk but then growing upscale into
more linear structures capable of producing localized wind gusts
of 50-65 mph. Some residual capping could inhibit the overall
severe weather potential until storms push into East Texas later
Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Locations south of the
I-20 corridor will likely miss out on this round of storms.
The bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity will push east of our
forecast area by early Wednesday afternoon as the front begins to
stall and becomes nearly quasi-stationary from a Paris, TX to
Temple, TX line early Wednesday evening. There will likely be a
several-hour lull in precipitation Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening over North Texas until increasing low-level
southerly flow effectively lifts this boundary toward the Red
River as a warm front after sunset. Lift in the vicinity of this
front and persistent shortwave impulses in the southwesterly flow
aloft will likely produce multiple rounds of elevated
thunderstorms generally north of the I-20 corridor into southern
Oklahoma after midnight Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
1500-2500 J/kg and 70-80 kts of effective bulk shear will promote
primarily a large to very large hail risk with perhaps a localized
damaging wind threat. There is potential for thunderstorms to
become surface-based after sunrise Thursday morning along the Red
River as the warm front slowly lifts northward, primarily near
Grayson, Fannin, and Lamar Counties. If this occurs, all severe
weather hazards would be possible for several hours Thursday
morning into early Thursday afternoon generally north and
northeast of the Metroplex. The aforementioned frontal boundary
will meander over our region for several days providing a focus
for multiple rounds of thunderstorms through Saturday and
increasing the heavy rain and flooding threat over the latter
portions of the week.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/
A deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest will develop a
closed low as it begins to advance east Thursday night and Friday.
Eastern portions of North and Central Texas may be dealing with
some residual showers and storms Thursday evening, but the focus
will shift north and west as a lead shortwave in the strong
southwest flow aloft helps generate another round of deep
convection Thursday night. Storms will initiate along and
northwest of a northeast-southwest oriented surface front
stretching from Central Oklahoma to the Big Country. This will
place the highest storm chances across the northwest quadrant of
the CWA. With exceptional amounts of effective bulk shear and
steep mid level lapse rates in place, elevated storms north of
the front will pose a large hail threat overnight. Any storm which
may ride the surface front will be capable of all modes of severe
weather.
In fact convection will tend to become more surface based late
morning into Friday afternoon with surface destabilization. These
storms (some severe) will shift east across the I-35 corridor
around midday Friday, then into areas east of I-35 Friday
afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will
all be possible through late Friday afternoon before the lead wave
accelerates off to the northeast.
Any lull in showers and storms will be brief, as the
aforementioned closed low encroaches from the west and a fresh
round of convection fires near and northwest the surface front
(which will have been forced east into Central and East Texas by
this point). Elevated, hail-producing supercells should be the
primary convective mode late Friday evening into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather, however will again be possible
near and southeast of the front. Not everyone will see severe
weather, but just about any location across the CWA will see equal
chance of experiencing a severe storm Friday night. In addition,
multiple rounds of precipitation leading up to Friday night will
make soils more flood prone, increasing the flash flood threat
with time. It's possible that a Flood Watch will be issued at
some point, but a bit too soon at this juncture to nail down the
most likely areas.
Precipitation will finally exit to the east Saturday and Saturday
night as the main trough sweeps east through the Plains and the
surface boundary surges southeast as a cold front. A much cooler
and drier airmass will enter Saturday night and Sunday behind the
front. A pattern reversal will transpire Sunday and Monday as the
upper trough settles over the eastern CONUS and upper ridging
builds in from the west. This pattern shift will bring dry and
seasonable weather to the area early to mid next week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
FROPA is running a bit quicker than previously forecasted. West-
northwesterly wind shift will arrive at DFW near/just after 15Z
and DAL at roughly ~1530-1540Z. Ahead of the front, gusty south-
southwesterly flow will prevail with gusts up to 25-30 kts likely.
MVFR will prevail through mid-morning, lifting and clearing to VFR
status behind FROPA. MVFR and potentially IFR cigs will return
later tonight toward the end of this TAF period.
A stout capping inversion has kept most pre-frontal convection at
bay thus far. Latest high-resolution guidance seems to be
catching on with the potential for pre-frontal activity
diminishing due to capping issues. There are some radar echoes
showing up in a pre-frontal trough from Montague to Jack County,
but it is uncertain if these storms will be able to sustain
themselves away from the boundary. Most of the activity will focus
along and just ahead of the frontal boundary expected to move
toward D10 after 14Z. Still will keep VCTS at the TAF start time
to take into account the low-end potential for scattered pre-
frontal convection. The ingredients are there for a couple strong
to severe storms capable of producing hail and localized damaging
wind gusts. Thunderstorm activity will shift east of all TAF sites
by 16Z this morning with renewed thunderstorms, potentially
severe, returning after midnight tonight into Thursday morning.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible across portions of North Texas over
the next couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 62 75 64 77 / 40 60 60 80 90
Waco 85 67 83 68 84 / 30 20 20 50 80
Paris 79 61 74 63 77 / 70 70 70 90 100
Denton 83 56 71 58 74 / 40 70 60 80 90
McKinney 82 60 74 63 76 / 50 60 70 80 100
Dallas 86 63 77 63 79 / 50 60 60 80 100
Terrell 81 64 79 66 81 / 60 50 50 70 90
Corsicana 84 69 84 71 84 / 40 30 40 60 80
Temple 86 68 86 69 86 / 20 10 10 40 70
Mineral Wells 85 55 74 58 74 / 20 60 50 80 90
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250402T1106.txt
