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138
FXUS64 KFWD 280543
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.
- Isolated showers and storms (20% chance) are possible near and
south of I-20 today.
- Higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures are
expected from late Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
A warm/moist advection regime will remain in place today, sending
a swath of low stratus and perhaps even some fog into parts of
Central Texas later this morning. While zonal flow will prevail
aloft devoid of any meaningful ascent, warm/moist advection should
be sufficient to result in isolated coverage of showers and
perhaps even a thunderstorm mainly south of I-20 during the
daytime today. Coverage is likely to only be around 20% or less.
Increasing cloud cover may shave a couple degrees off of
afternoon highs, but they will still be soundly above normal in
the upper 70s and lower 80s. It will also be increasingly and
unseasonably humid as surface dewpoints climb into the 60s later
today.
The onset of subtle mid-level shortwave ridging should largely
eliminate rain chances from this evening into Thursday morning
before our next chance for rain begins Thursday afternoon/evening.
An unseasonably warm/humid airmass will remain in place while
upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS, allowing a
strengthening subtropical jet streak to impinge on the area.
Widespread mid/high cloud cover should begin streaming into the
western half of the area by Thursday afternoon, with showers
becoming increasingly likely late in the day. PoPs will be capped
at roughly 30% through the daytime before the peak rain chances
arrive in the long term forecast period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Remnants of a Pacific tropical system will phase with broad
troughing already in place heading into Friday, and this will
lead to rain chances to end the workweek and begin the weekend. In
comparison to previous forecasts, overall rain chances and
expected amounts have both decreased slightly, with the trajectory
of this system trending increasingly north/northwest of the
forecast area. Areas near/west of I-35 will experience scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms on an intermittent basis from
Thursday night through Saturday as this system gradually ejects
into the Central Plains, but coverage of measurable rainfall may
be much more scant east of the I-35 corridor. Either way, this
system's presence will make for a mostly cloudy and therefore
slightly cooler start to the weekend with highs in the mid/upper
70s. An overall lack of instability should keep occurrences of
thunder rather scarce, and this system will only really consist of
beneficial rainfall for the lucky locations that manage to
receive some. Most of this activity should be on a downward trend
by Saturday evening, keeping the majority of Halloween evening
activities unaffected.
A much more potent storm system is still on track to take hold of
the central CONUS by early next week. Following a likely rain-
free Sunday, this rapidly deepening system could send a cold
front through the forecast area sometime Monday or early Tuesday,
which would be accompanied by additional chances for showers and
storms. The finer details of this system will become clearer in
the next few days, but at a minimum, a decent fall frontal passage
is looking increasingly likely during the first half of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
An influx of low-level moisture will send low stratus towards
Waco after daybreak this morning, where a Tempo group for MVFR
cigs will be advertised. This SCT/BKN deck will continue to lift
to 4-5 kft upon spreading farther north into D10 this afternoon.
Isolated shower activity is also possible mainly south of the
Metroplex airports from mid-morning into the afternoon, and VCSH
will be indicated at Waco at this time. A south/southeast wind
will prevail through the entire period at speeds around 10 kts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 63 83 67 / 0 0 10 0
Waco 83 61 83 65 / 10 0 30 0
Paris 82 56 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 83 59 83 63 / 0 0 10 0
McKinney 82 59 82 63 / 0 0 10 0
Dallas 84 63 84 68 / 0 0 20 0
Terrell 83 58 83 63 / 10 0 20 0
Corsicana 82 60 83 64 / 10 0 30 0
Temple 84 61 84 65 / 0 0 30 0
Mineral Wells 83 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20261028T0543.txt
638
FXUS64 KFWD 280013
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
713 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.
- Isolated showers and storms (15-30% chance) are possible across
portions of Central Texas Wednesday afternoon.
- Rain and cloud cover will bring near average temperatures on
Friday before warmer temperatures in the 80s return this
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
This afternoon, visible satellite continues to show a shortwave
disturbance ejecting into the Midwest, with scattered showers and
any remaining cloud cover exiting to the east of the CWA. A
surface high pressure will reinforce clear skies overnight,
bringing radiational cooling with lows into the upper 50s and low
60s.
Wednesday, continued southerly flow will help pull Gulf moisture
north along the I-35 corridor. Broad warm air advection and
isentropic lift should provide sufficient forcing for isolated
showers and storms (20-30%) primarily south of I-20. Some of
these may be capable of rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour owing to
1.5"+ PWAT's and tall/skinny CAPE profiles. Despite these
rainfall rates, flooding is unlikely at this time due to the brief
and spotty nature of any storms that are able to develop. The
potential for isolated thunderstorms will be driven by weak
instability (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) as shown in the most recent
CAMs. Otherwise, warm and humid weather will prevail Wednesday,
with highs in the mid 80s, and lows back into the lower 60s
overnight into Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Thursday will bring a period of daily unsettled weather as a shortwave
ejects off the Mexican Plateau. Persistent southerly flow
throughout the week will bring dewpoints into the 60s by this time.
This moisture return, coinciding with synoptic ascent owing to
PVA from the aforementioned shortwave will help promote scattered
rain showers (50% PoP) Thursday through Saturday. Thursday into
Friday, the greatest rain chances look to stay west of I-35. This
activity will expand east heading into the weekend. Instability
looks to be on the weaker end, with the latest LREF ensembles
offering 200-400 J/kg of MUCAPE. This could be enough for a rumble
of thunder or two amidst the more widespread showery activity. As
this shortwave shunts northeast, broken to overcast skies will
prevail through the weekend. Despite lingering cloud cover, high
temperatures will remain above normal in the upper 70s and lower
80s. Saturday (Halloween) night, any remaining showers will
continue to decay, leaving behind cool and humid conditions with
dewpoints in the mid 60s.
Daily rain chances will continue into early next week, as medium-
range guidance continues to depict a deepening western CONUS trough.
This next upper-level system may bring a fall cold front and mid-
week rain chances. The strength of the cold front and any
associated convection will become clearer in the coming days, so
stay tuned for more forecast updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at the D10 terminals through
Wednesday evening. Increasing southerly flow will draw low-level
moisture northward during the day tomorrow, with a BKN-OVC deck
around 050 expected to reach the Metroplex by 16Z before ceilings
lift late in the afternoon. Farther south, MVFR cigs will be more
prevalent across Central Texas around or just after daybreak
Wednesday morning, though confidence in prevailing MVFR at KACT
remains low. A TEMPO for BKN015 has been included from 12-17Z to
account for occasional periods of low cigs. Isolated showers may
develop across Central Texas in the afternoon, but the probability
of impacts at KACT or the D10 terminals remains too low for
mention at this time. Southerly winds will generally remain
between 5-10 kts through the end of the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 83 67 82 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 61 83 65 81 / 0 30 0 10
Paris 56 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 59 83 63 82 / 0 10 0 10
McKinney 59 82 63 82 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 63 84 68 83 / 0 20 0 0
Terrell 58 83 63 83 / 0 20 0 0
Corsicana 60 83 64 82 / 0 30 0 0
Temple 61 84 65 81 / 0 30 0 10
Mineral Wells 59 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...12
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20261028T0013.txt
118
FXUS64 KFWD 271037
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the workweek,
with low rain chances through Wednesday.
- A change in the weather pattern is expected later this week,
leading to increasing rain chances from Thursday into Saturday
along with slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
A shortwave disturbance is in the process of ejecting
northeastward into the Central Pains early this morning, with
trailing light rain falling from an attendant mid cloud deck
across parts of North Texas. This light rain will not be
measurable for most locations, hence PoPs of just 10% advertised
in the forecast through the early morning hours today. While
cloudy skies will be present to begin the day, they will accompany
the shortwave off to the east later in the afternoon with only
scattered high cloud cover remaining by this evening. Light
south/southeast winds will continue, while highs remain above
normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Moist southerly flow will continue into Wednesday, and an
eastward shift of the low-level moist axis will send dewpoints
into the upper 50s and lower 60s locally. Although large-scale
lift will be absent as modest zonal flow aloft prevails through
midweek, sufficient low-level warm/moist advection may allow for
a few rain showers in parts of Central Texas on Wednesday.
However, this potential is presently too low to warrant any
PoPs/precip mention in the public forecast. Expect another
afternoon of unseasonably warm and humid conditions as a result
of this warm advection regime, with highs mostly in the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
A more active extended forecast period is still expected towards
the end of the week and into the weekend. Rain chances will begin
to increase on Thursday west of I-35 as higher quality moisture
content arrives with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid or
even upper 60s. By Friday, a large-scale pattern shift to deep
western CONUS troughing will allow a subtropical jet to interact
with remnant moisture from a Pacific tropical system across New
Mexico and Texas. This will offer fairly widespread rain chances
especially near and west of I-35 Friday into Saturday. With
meager instability present, this activity should consist of a
broad area of beneficial rainfall with isolated embedded
thunderstorms. While timing is still uncertain, it appears that
Halloween festivities could largely be unaffected as much of this
activity could be winding down during the daytime Saturday.
Increased cloud cover may limit high temperatures to some extent
both Friday and Saturday, but temps are likely to remain near or
above normal without a frontal passage to accompany this system.
While the Friday/Saturday storm system will be unaccompanied by a
cold frontal passage, a stronger frontal intrusion is looking
increasingly likely for early next week. Most global guidance is
in fairly good agreement regarding the deepening of a potent
Central US upper low by early next week which would be able to
send a stronger fall cold front through the area on
Monday or Tuesday. This boundary would also likely offer some
additional rain chances with its passage should this solution
come to fruition.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
A band of light rain/virga is moving off to the east of the TAF
sites early this morning, with no additional precip expected at
the airports through today. Mid and high cloud decks will
gradually clear through the daytime, with VFR prevailing. An
intrusion of lower cigs may occur around of just after the end of
the valid TAF period on Wednesday morning, and VFR cigs near or
below 4 kft may need to be addressed in subsequent TAF issuances.
A south/southeast wind will continue through the period at 10 kt
or less.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 63 84 66 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 83 61 84 64 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 82 57 84 61 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 83 59 84 62 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 82 58 84 62 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 84 63 85 67 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 83 57 84 62 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 82 60 84 63 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 84 61 84 64 / 10 0 10 0
Mineral Wells 83 59 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20261027T1037.txt
