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201
FXUS64 KFWD 291757
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central
Texas through Thursday. Heat index value between 105-108 can be
expected.
- There is a low chance for showers/storms on Saturday as a weak
cold front moves into North Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Hot conditions will continue through Thursday as North Texas
remains under the influence of strong mid level ridging. Some thin
high clouds have filtered sun across the region a bit, but only
minor impacts to afternoon high temperatures are expected. Highs
will top out near 100 degrees today and climb a few degrees on
Thursday to between 100-102 degrees. Deep afternoon mixing will
allow dewpoints to fall into the mid 60s keeping heat index values
generally around 105 degrees. An uptick in RH values along and
north of I-20 on Thursday will push heat indices to near 108
degrees in a few locations. An axis of moisture is present on the
western periphery of a surface high over the eastern CONUS. This
moisture is present on the GOES-PW imagery extending from
Louisiana northwest into eastern Oklahoma. Some higher moisture
content across the Arklatex could result in a few isolated showers
this afternoon and again Thursday. PoPs in North Texas will remain
around 5%.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Heat will continue through the end of the week with Friday likely
being the hottest day over the next 7 days. With the ridge axis
shifting westward by Friday, increasing northerly flow will
develop through the Central Plains allowing a weak cold front to
slide southward. This front will approach the Red River Friday
evening with weak compressional warming adding to the already hot
temperatures. This should send highs upward into the 102-105
degree range. Some moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will
also add to the discomfort sending heat indices up near 110
degrees. Heat Advisories or Extreme Heat Warnings will likely be
needed/expanded for Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, the boundary will slide south of I-20 during the day
Saturday with weak northerly winds and slightly cooler air. Highs
should top out in the mid to upper 90s. There is a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the frontal
boundary during the afternoon on Saturday. While widespread
rainfall isn't expected across the region, any storms that develop
could have some potential for strong downburst winds. Drier air
will continue to spread south into the region Sunday with highs in
the mid/upper 90s into early next week. Other than the low rain
chances along the front on Saturday, no significant rain chances
are expected into next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the current period with southerly
winds around 10kts. Some afternoon cumulus is expected. No
significant aviation concerns at this time.
Dunn/Borst
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 98 76 99 / 0 10 0 0
Denton 78 101 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 101 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
117>123-133>135-145-146.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ116-131-132-144-
147-148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260729T1757.txt
761
FXUS64 KFWD 291045
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM this evening
across much of North and Central Texas where heat index readings
could reach up to 109.
- Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the work week
with little relief in sight, and additional Heat Advisories or
possibly Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Upper ridging will remain anchored over eastern New Mexico and the
Texas Panhandle through at least Thursday keeping hot and dry
conditions over North and Central Texas. Expect afternoon highs in
the upper 90s to lower 100s both Wednesday and Thursday with heat
index values peaking in the 105-110 degree range across much of
the region. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of our
forecast area, minus several Big Country counties, through this
evening and will likely be extended into Thursday on the day
shift. Stay cool out there and make sure you are checking up on
your friends, family, and neighbors that may be more susceptible
to heat-related illnesses.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
By Friday, troughing will dig southeast across parts of the
Midwest shunting the upper ridge toward the Four Corners region
and placing North and Central Texas beneath north-northwest flow
aloft. This will allow for a weak frontal boundary to sag south
toward the Red River Friday night pushing through the rest of the
region during the day Saturday. Ahead of this boundary on Friday,
winds will take on a more west-southwesterly component which may
tick temperatures up two to three degrees into the 103-106 degree
range potentially necessitating an Extreme Heat Warning across
parts of North Texas.
There will be notable moisture pooling ahead of this boundary that
could help initiate a few very isolated thunderstorms as early as
Friday evening near the Red River. This isolated storm potential
(less than 20% chance) will gradually shift southward through the
first half of the weekend as the weak frontal boundary makes
progress into Central Texas. Severe weather is not expected and
most locations will remain dry, but any storms that do develop
will be capable of producing strong downburst winds with
temperatures in/near the triple digits.
By Sunday, drier air will filter in effectively shutting off any
of the low rain chances that will be present on Saturday.
Northeasterly surface winds will allow for a slightly "cooler" day
on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s. However, by Monday
winds turn back out of the south and upper ridging extends back
over the Southern Plains causing temperatures to gradually warm
back up into the upper 90s to lower 100s. No significant rain
chances are in the forecast through at least the next 7-8 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
VFR conditions and south winds at 5-12 kts will prevail through
the TAF period at all North and Central Texas terminals. Very
brief MVFR cigs may move into the vicinity of KACT around 13Z-14Z
this morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 82 102 82 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 98 78 97 78 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 101 80 102 81 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 99 79 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 101 83 102 83 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 99 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 101 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260729T1045.txt
742
FXUS64 KFWD 290640
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM Wednesday across
much of North and Central Texas where heat index readings could
reach up to 109.
- Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the work week
with little relief in sight, and additional Heat Advisories or
possibly Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Upper ridging will remain anchored over eastern New Mexico and the
Texas Panhandle through at least Thursday keeping hot and dry
conditions over North and Central Texas. Expect afternoon highs in
the upper 90s to lower 100s both Wednesday and Thursday with heat
index values peaking in the 105-110 degree range across much of
the region. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of our
forecast area, minus several Big Country counties, through this
evening and will likely be extended into Thursday on the day
shift. Stay cool out there and make sure you are checking up on
your friends, family, and neighbors that may be more susceptible
to heat-related illnesses.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
By Friday, troughing will dig southeast across parts of the
Midwest shunting the upper ridge toward the Four Corners region
and placing North and Central Texas beneath north-northwest flow
aloft. This will allow for a weak frontal boundary to sag south
toward the Red River Friday night pushing through the rest of the
region during the day Saturday. Ahead of this boundary on Friday,
winds will take on a more west-southwesterly component which may
tick temperatures up two to three degrees into the 103-106 degree
range potentially necessitating an Extreme Heat Warning across
parts of North Texas.
There will be notable moisture pooling ahead of this boundary that
could help initiate a few very isolated thunderstorms as early as
Friday evening near the Red River. This isolated storm potential
(less than 20% chance) will gradually shift southward through the
first half of the weekend as the weak frontal boundary makes
progress into Central Texas. Severe weather is not expected and
most locations will remain dry, but any storms that do develop
will be capable of producing strong downburst winds with
temperatures in/near the triple digits.
By Sunday, drier air will filter in effectively shutting off any
of the low rain chances that will be present on Saturday.
Northeasterly surface winds will allow for a slightly "cooler" day
on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s. However, by Monday
winds turn back out of the south and upper ridging extends back
over the Southern Plains causing temperatures to gradually warm
back up into the upper 90s to lower 100s. No significant rain
chances are in the forecast through at least the next 7-8 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
VFR conditions with south winds at 5-12 kts will prevail through
the TAF period at all North and Central Texas terminals.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 82 102 82 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 99 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 98 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 102 80 102 80 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 101 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 102 82 103 83 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 100 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 102 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260729T0640.txt
721
FXUS64 KFWD 282231
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM Wednesday across
much of North and Central Texas where heat index readings could
reach up to 109.
- Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the work week
with little relief in sight, and additional Heat Advisories or
possibly Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
No significant changes to the ongoing forecast in the short term,
as our robust upper level ridge remains parked over New Mexico
and far West Texas. Strong subsidence on the eastern flank of this
high will continue to produce mostly clear skies and hot
conditions through Wednesday. Some cirrus cloudiness from
convective debris over Kansas and northern Oklahoma may slip into
the northernmost counties later today and this evening. This
cloudiness will do little in the way of mitigating our hot daytime
temps today. Highs both today and Wednesday will rise above the
century mark across most of the northern and eastern portions of
the forecast area, with heat indices easily reaching the 105-110
degree range both days. As a result, the Heat Advisory has been
extended for the same geographical area through Wednesday.
Daytime highs and heat indices across the southwest counties will
remain just a touch less warm, with maxima remaining below 100 for
the most part today and Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Ensemble mean model solutions depict the center of the upper
level ridge remaining stationary over New Mexico Thursday and
Friday, with the eastern flank of the ridge dominating North
Central Texas. This will facilitate continued hot conditions, with
daytime highs over 100 degrees persisting in many locations.
By Saturday, however, a subtle pattern shift will ensue, with the
upper ridge retrograding to the greater Arizona region. This will
promote an evolution to a northwesterly flow regime over North
Texas, with a pronounced shortwave trough dropping southward out
of the Midwest, into the Tennessee Valley by early Monday. As this
shortwave brushes the eastern edge of our region, a weak cold
front will sweep southward into North Texas on Saturday. In the
wake of this boundary, northerly flow and slightly cooler air will
infiltrate the area.
Highs ahead of the front will breach the century mark Saturday
afternoon in most areas along and south of I-20, with slightly
cooler readings expected closer to the Red River. Uniformally
"less hot" temperatures (mostly mid to upper 90s) will ensue
areawide on Sunday and Monday, as the northwesterly upper level
flow regime lingers. No precipitation is anticipated with this
brief pattern shift, and indeed the ongoing dry pattern will
likely persist through next week, along with a return to 100-plus
high temperatures in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
South flow (160-200) at 5-12 knots and VFR conditions will prevail
at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 102 82 102 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 79 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 82 102 82 103 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Darrah
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260728T2231.txt
