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710
FXUS64 KFWD 091051
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
551 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A thunderstorm complex moving out of West Texas tonight may move
into portions of North and Central Texas early Tuesday morning.
- Periodic storm chances will continue through the remainder of
the week with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms
will be possible Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The morning radar mosaic over North and Central Texas shows
showers lingering in the wake of last night's thunderstorm
complex. The Severe Thunderstorms Watch that had been in effect
for portions of Central Texas this morning has been cancelled
early as the strongest convection has weakened and moved out of
our forecast area. The only changes necessary with this update
were minor hourly grid adjustments to incorporate the latest
observations and short-term guidance.
12
Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/
The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Fort Worth shows an
MCS located south of the I-20 corridor and shifting into East
Texas. Over the last couple of hours, this MCS has produced
destructive, straight-line winds up to 80 mph across North Texas.
The convective complex is moving east-southeastward along the
western edge of a still moderately unstable airmass. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the MCS are generally in the low to mid 70s F
and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be between 2500 and 3500
J/kg. This environment will continue to support a wind-damage
threat for a couple more hours as the MCS tracks across our
southeastern zones, especially along the leading edge of the line.
The severe threat will also continue west of the I-35 corridor in
Central Texas as a few trailing clusters of severe thunderstorms
push east over the next few hours. Though this line of storms has
been very progressive, very heavy rainfall has already amassed
rain totals generally between 1-3 inches with a few localized
totals to 4+ inches along the Red River Valley.
By sunrise, the remnants of the MCS will have exited to the east
with scattered weakening showers and storms lingering across
Central Texas. Much of the remainder of the day should generally
be quiet (by comparison) as weak subsidence in the wake of the
passing shortwave suppresses convection and the airmass behind the
expansive overnight MCS recovers. However, persistent moisture
and a mid-level perturbation embedded in the northwesterly flow
aloft will support additional convection developing over the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies later in the afternoon.
Some of the CAMs are suggesting that these storms will grow
upscale and organize into another MCS that will propagate
southeastward across west-central Texas Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. This complex of storms (if it develops) is
currently projected to reach our western zones before sunrise on
Tuesday, bringing a threat for gusty outflow winds and heavy rain
as it pushes west to east across the region Tuesday morning and
into the early afternoon. There is some lingering track and
evolution uncertainty related to how this complex interacts with
the existing mesoscale features like the stalled surface cold
front and the modifying outflow from the earlier complex.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 348 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025/
/Rest of the week/
More widespread rain and storms are expected across North and
Central Texas mid to late week as low-level moisture remains in
place over the region. Despite the prevailing cooler than normal
temperatures in the forecast, precipitable water values nearing or
exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology and moderate
diurnally-driven instability will continue to support daily storm
chances. Additionally, the anomalous moisture will likely lead to
periods of efficient rainfall and a re-emerging risk for flooding
where storms occur. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a stronger slow-
moving shortwave trough will drift into West Texas leading to the
next few waves of widespread showers and thunderstorms mid to late
week. There should be enough instability and wind shear for some
storm organization and a risk of severe convection, though the
greater threat may be locally heavy rainfall and flooding. This
trough will linger nearby into Thursday before slowly lifting to
the northeast on Friday. Ridging will very gradually build in from
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, however ridge-topping
perturbations/shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft could keep
daily rain chances in East Texas into the following week.
Temperatures will also rebound to near or slightly above normal
this weekend with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/
The showers that had been lingering behind last nights storm
complex are continuing to drift south across Central Texas this
morning. MVFR cigs may be possible across the Metroplex TAF sites
for a few hours this morning but otherwise VFR prevails with
southerly winds around 10 kts or less. Another thunderstorm
complex is expected to develop over West Texas later this
afternoon and will advance towards Central Texas airports just
beyond the end of the valid TAF period. This will be addressed in
later TAF issuances. The potential for these storms impacting D10
airports is low at this time.
12
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 72 87 71 83 / 20 40 20 20 60
Waco 87 71 84 71 84 / 40 60 60 30 70
Paris 85 66 88 66 85 / 10 5 5 5 30
Denton 85 68 87 68 83 / 10 20 10 20 50
McKinney 85 69 87 68 84 / 10 20 10 10 50
Dallas 87 73 87 71 84 / 20 40 20 20 60
Terrell 85 70 87 69 85 / 20 30 20 20 50
Corsicana 87 72 86 72 85 / 30 50 50 20 60
Temple 90 72 85 71 86 / 40 50 60 30 70
Mineral Wells 85 69 85 68 83 / 20 50 30 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250609T1051.txt
346
FXUS64 KFWD 090848
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
348 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New Long Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue
across Central Texas this morning. The storms south of the I-20
corridor and west of I-35 still carry a threat for damaging
wind gusts.
- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be
possible Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/
The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Fort Worth shows an
MCS located south of the I-20 corridor and shifting into East
Texas. Over the last couple of hours, this MCS has produced
destructive, straight-line winds up to 80 mph across North Texas.
The convective complex is moving east-southeastward along the
western edge of a still moderately unstable airmass. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the MCS are generally in the low to mid 70s F
and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be between 2500 and 3500
J/kg. This environment will continue to support a wind-damage
threat for a couple more hours as the MCS tracks across our
southeastern zones, especially along the leading edge of the line.
The severe threat will also continue west of the I-35 corridor in
Central Texas as a few trailing clusters of severe thunderstorms
push east over the next few hours. Though this line of storms has
been very progressive, very heavy rainfall has already amassed
rain totals generally between 1-3 inches with a few localized
totals to 4+ inches along the Red River Valley.
By sunrise, the remnants of the MCS will have exited to the east
with scattered weakening showers and storms lingering across
Central Texas. Much of the remainder of the day should generally
be quiet (by comparison) as weak subsidence in the wake of the
passing shortwave suppresses convection and the airmass behind the
expansive overnight MCS recovers. However, persistent moisture
and a mid-level perturbation embedded in the northwesterly flow
aloft will support additional convection developing over the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies later in the afternoon.
Some of the CAMs are suggesting that these storms will grow
upscale and organize into another MCS that will propagate
southeastward across west-central Texas Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. This complex of storms (if it develops) is
currently projected to reach our western zones before sunrise on
Tuesday, bringing a threat for gusty outflow winds and heavy rain
as it pushes west to east across the region Tuesday morning and
into the early afternoon. There is some lingering track and
evolution uncertainty related to how this complex interacts with
the existing mesoscale features like the stalled surface cold
front and the modifying outflow from the earlier complex.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Rest of the week/
More widespread rain and storms are expected across North and
Central Texas mid to late week as low-level moisture remains in
place over the region. Despite the prevailing cooler than normal
temperatures in the forecast, precipitable water values nearing or
exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology and moderate
diurnally-driven instability will continue to support daily storm
chances. Additionally, the anomalous moisture will likely lead to
periods of efficient rainfall and a re-emerging risk for flooding
where storms occur. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a stronger slow-
moving shortwave trough will drift into West Texas leading to the
next few waves of widespread showers and thunderstorms mid to late
week. There should be enough instability and wind shear for some
storm organization and a risk of severe convection, though the
greater threat may be locally heavy rainfall and flooding. This
trough will linger nearby into Thursday before slowly lifting to
the northeast on Friday. Ridging will very gradually build in from
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, however ridge-topping
perturbations/shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft could keep
daily rain chances in East Texas into the following week.
Temperatures will also rebound to near or slightly above normal
this weekend with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025/
/06z TAFs/
In the wake of the complex of thunderstorms that moved through
the region over the past several hours, stratiform rain and a few
embedded thunderstorms continue across D10 while the trailing edge
of the larger complex nears the Waco terminal. TSRA will continue
to impact the TAF sites through 09Z before this activity should
finally begin to clear from north to south. Winds may continue to
be gusty and erratic in and around storms, but generally northerly
winds prevail behind the line of storms at around 10 kts or less.
MVFR cigs are likely to develop across the North Texas terminals
for a few hours later this morning (14-17Z).
Another thunderstorm complex will likely develop over West Texas
late Monday and may approach the TAF sites near or just beyond
the end of the extended portion of the DFW TAF. There remains a
considerable amount of uncertainty with the track of this complex,
with some models keeping this activity south of the Metroplex. We
will not introduce any mention of TS with this update.
12
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 72 88 71 83 / 20 40 20 20 60
Waco 87 69 84 71 84 / 40 60 60 30 70
Paris 85 66 86 66 85 / 10 5 5 5 30
Denton 85 67 88 68 83 / 10 20 10 20 50
McKinney 85 68 87 68 84 / 10 20 10 10 50
Dallas 87 72 87 71 84 / 20 40 20 20 60
Terrell 85 69 87 69 85 / 20 40 20 20 50
Corsicana 87 72 87 72 85 / 20 60 50 20 60
Temple 90 71 86 71 86 / 40 50 60 30 70
Mineral Wells 84 67 87 68 83 / 20 50 30 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
TXZ130-141-143>145-147-159-161-162-175.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ142-
156>158-160-174.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250609T0848.txt
324
FXUS64 KFWD 090640
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across North and
Central Texas. The storms south of the I-20 corridor and west of
I-35 still carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.
- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be
possible Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/
The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Fort Worth shows an
MCS located south of the I-20 corridor and shifting into East
Texas. Over the last couple of hours, this MCS has produced
destructive, straight-line winds up to 80 mph across North Texas.
The convective complex is moving east-southeastward along the
western edge of a still moderately unstable airmass. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the MCS are generally in the low to mid 70s F
and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be between 2500 and 3500
J/kg. This environment will continue to support a wind-damage
threat for a couple more hours as the MCS tracks across our
southeastern zones, especially along the leading edge of the line.
The severe threat will also continue west of the I-35 corridor in
Central Texas as a few trailing clusters of severe thunderstorms
push east over the next few hours. Though this line of storms has
been very progressive, very heavy rainfall has already amassed
rain totals generally between 1-3 inches with a few localized
totals to 4+ inches along the Red River Valley.
By sunrise, the remnants of the MCS will have exited to the east
with scattered weakening showers and storms lingering across
Central Texas. Much of the remainder of the day should generally
be quiet (by comparison) as weak subsidence in the wake of the
passing shortwave suppresses convection and the airmass behind the
expansive overnight MCS recovers. However, persistent moisture
and a mid-level perturbation embedded in the northwesterly flow
aloft will support additional convection developing over the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies later in the afternoon.
Some of the CAMs are suggesting that these storms will grow
upscale and organize into another MCS that will propagate
southeastward across west-central Texas Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. This complex of storms (if it develops) is
currently projected to reach our western zones before sunrise on
Tuesday, bringing a threat for gusty outflow winds and heavy rain
as it pushes west to east across the region Tuesday morning and
into the early afternoon. There is some lingering track and
evolution uncertainty related to how this complex interacts with
the existing mesoscale features like the stalled surface cold
front and the modifying outflow from the earlier complex.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025/
/Monday Night Onward/
Our unsettled pattern will continue through the rest of this
week, with daily rain chances expected. The stalled cold front
will linger across Central Texas through the first couple days of
the week, providing a focused area for thunderstorm development
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The severe weather threat for
this activity is on the lower end, but cannot rule out a strong to
marginally severe storm with a wind and hail threat. PWATs
between 1.5-2" will continue the threat for heavy rain, and
training thunderstorms could locally increase the flooding threat
in Central Texas. Better chances for severe weather will occur
over midweek. An open shortwave trough will amplify into a closed
low as it moves across the Desert Southwest and slowly ejects
northeast through the Southern Plains. Coverage of storms will
increase Wednesday and Thursday as the low meanders nearby. Strong
to severe storms will be possible, capable of winds and hail. The
caveat to this severe risk is that deep layer shear continues to
be marginal, which makes the extent of the severe threat
uncertain. Additionally long, skinny CAPE and PWATs around 1.5"
will promote periods of heavy rain. This will ramp up the flooding
threat across the region, particularly for areas that have
already received multiple rounds of storms in the days prior.
This low is progged to stick around over the course of the rest of
the week, leading to continued rain chances as we head into the
weekend. Rain chances will become more sparse over the weekend, as
a mid- level ridge to our west begins to nudge east into the
Southern Plains.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/
In the wake of the complex of thunderstorms that moved through
the region over the past several hours, stratiform rain and a few
embedded thunderstorms continue across D10 while the trailing edge
of the larger complex nears the Waco terminal. TSRA will continue
to impact the TAF sites through 09Z before this activity should
finally begin to clear from north to south. Winds may continue to
be gusty and erratic in and around storms, but generally northerly
winds prevail behind the line of storms at around 10 kts or less.
MVFR cigs are likely to develop across the North Texas terminals
for a few hours later this morning (14-17Z).
Another thunderstorm complex will likely develop over West Texas
late Monday and may approach the TAF sites near or just beyond
the end of the extended portion of the DFW TAF. There remains a
considerable amount of uncertainty with the track of this complex,
with some models keeping this activity south of the Metroplex. We
will not introduce any mention of TS with this update.
12
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 72 88 71 83 / 20 40 20 20 60
Waco 87 69 84 71 84 / 40 60 60 30 70
Paris 85 66 86 66 85 / 10 5 5 5 30
Denton 85 67 88 68 83 / 10 20 10 20 50
McKinney 85 68 87 68 84 / 10 20 10 10 50
Dallas 87 72 87 71 84 / 20 40 20 20 60
Terrell 85 69 87 69 85 / 20 40 20 20 50
Corsicana 87 72 87 72 85 / 20 60 50 20 60
Temple 90 71 86 71 86 / 40 50 60 30 70
Mineral Wells 84 67 87 68 83 / 20 50 30 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
TXZ129>135-141-143>148-159-161-162-175.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250609T0640.txt
302
FXUS64 KFWD 090035
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
735 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant damaging wind event is still expected through late
tonight. Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few
hours.
- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be
possible Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed across parts of
North Texas late this afternoon and evening within an extremely
unstable, but weakly sheared low level environment. These have
mainly produced some large hail, although a brief funnel and weak
tornado was reported across parts of Lamar and Fannin Counties.
These isolated severe storms appear to have only weakly modified
the airmass across the region and shouldn't significantly impact
the severe weather threat through late tonight.
Upstream, convection is becoming better organized with storm
clusters merging into bowing segments and this is expected to
continue over the next 1-2 hours. With the extremely unstable
airmass largely intact across North Texas and deep layer shear
vectors oriented nearly perpendicular to the organizing bowing
segments, we should see an eventual acceleration eastward to this
deep convection and a corresponding increasing damaging wind
threat. Widespread damaging wind swaths are likely to develop
with a few instances of wind gusts exceeding 80 mph across parts
of North Texas through late tonight. The exact location of these
strongest winds can't be pinned down until they start to develop
on radar as intense bowing segments. A new SVR TSTM WATCH will be
issued a little later this evening by SPC to address this threat
into the late night hours. Reference SWOMCD 1212 from the SPC for
a little more detailed information concerning the environmental
conditions supporting the damaging wind threat late tonight.
Dunn
Previous Discussion:
/Today Through Monday Afternoon/
BLUF: A significant, damaging wind event is likely tonight across
North Texas and into portions of Central Texas.
North and Central Texas remain in a warm and unstable airmass as a
dryline lingers in far West Texas and a cold front is currently
draped across southern Kansas. Persisting southerly flow under
partly cloudy skies will promote a warm afternoon, with highs in
the 90s. 70+ F dewpoints will make outdoor conditions feel
uncomfortable, with peak heat index values up to around 105. The
pre-storm environment is expected to be volatile, with 3000-4000
J/kg of MLCAPE, 50 KT of deep layer shear, and lapse rates around
7-8 C/km, which will set the stage for this evening. The biggest
change to this afternoon forecast package is that some of the
latest CAM guidance is now highlighting a low potential for the
clusters currently located near Childress to grow upscale and blow
through the region this afternoon. This presents us with two
scenarios:
Scenario 1 is that the western clusters remain more isolated this
afternoon as they move southeast. This is the most likely case at
this time, but could still change depending on how initial storms
develop. With this scenario, the main line of storms is expected
to develop along the front and dryline in the TX/OK Panhandles
late this afternoon as initially discrete supercells with an all-
hazards threat. This activity is expected to rapidly grow upscale
into an MCS this evening as it moves unimpeded towards North
Texas, with potentially some isolated discrete development out
ahead of the main line. Any more discrete storms would have the
potential for very large hail and an increased tornado threat,
mainly confined to our northwestern counties. The main MCS is
expected to move into our northwestern counties around 9-10PM,
reach the DFW Metro/I-35 corridor around 11PM-12AM, and East Texas
around 12-1AM. The main threat tonight will be damaging wind
gusts with a few instances of >80 mph winds. Some large hail would
be possible with any isolated storms that develop ahead of the
main line. Spin up tornadoes will also be possible within the
line, but damaging straight line winds will be the main threat.
Scenario 2 is that the the clusters that are currently to our
west expand and inhibit significant strengthening of the late
evening activity. This is the less likely scenario, but if it
does occur we would see a lesser swath of intense winds across
North Texas. We'll continue to monitor this potential as there is
currently an expanding coverage of storms to the northwest of
Wichita Falls.
Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, and have
your safe space ready and severe weather plan in place. Swaths of
wind damage are likely through late tonight.
The line is expected to exit the region early tomorrow morning,
with the cold front stalling across Central Texas. There may be
some scattered lingering showers and storms across the region
tomorrow morning, but these would remain sub-severe. Additional
storms are likely to develop over Monday afternoon, near the
stalled front and near/north of a lingering NW/SE outflow
boundary.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025/
/Monday Night Onward/
Our unsettled pattern will continue through the rest of this
week, with daily rain chances expected. The stalled cold front
will linger across Central Texas through the first couple days of
the week, providing a focused area for thunderstorm development
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The severe weather threat for
this activity is on the lower end, but cannot rule out a strong to
marginally severe storm with a wind and hail threat. PWATs
between 1.5-2" will continue the threat for heavy rain, and
training thunderstorms could locally increase the flooding threat
in Central Texas. Better chances for severe weather will occur
over midweek. An open shortwave trough will amplify into a closed
low as it moves across the Desert Southwest and slowly ejects
northeast through the Southern Plains. Coverage of storms will
increase Wednesday and Thursday as the low meanders nearby. Strong
to severe storms will be possible, capable of winds and hail. The
caveat to this severe risk is that deep layer shear continues to
be marginal, which makes the extent of the severe threat
uncertain. Additionally long, skinny CAPE and PWATs around 1.5"
will promote periods of heavy rain. This will ramp up the flooding
threat across the region, particularly for areas that have
already received multiple rounds of storms in the days prior.
This low is progged to stick around over the course of the rest of
the week, leading to continued rain chances as we head into the
weekend. Rain chances will become more sparse over the weekend, as
a mid- level ridge to our west begins to nudge east into the
Southern Plains.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR prevails outside of isolated convection this evening but
attention turns to a complex of severe thunderstorms that is
expected to roll through North Texas late tonight. We'll prevail
TSRA from 04Z with a TEMPO from 4-6Z of severe convection
including 50+ kt winds from the northwest. Thunderstorms will
likely continue for a few hours behind the main line before
precipitation ends during the early morning hours. North winds
will prevail through the day Monday with some low potential for
MVFR cigs during the mid morning hours. There is some potential
for additional scattered storms late Monday, but this will be
addressed in later TAF issuances.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas late
tonight. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 85 70 88 71 / 100 20 20 30 20
Waco 70 87 70 84 70 / 60 40 50 50 20
Paris 67 84 66 86 66 / 100 10 5 5 5
Denton 67 84 66 88 67 / 100 10 20 20 10
McKinney 70 84 67 87 68 / 100 10 20 20 10
Dallas 70 86 70 87 70 / 100 20 20 30 20
Terrell 70 86 68 87 69 / 100 20 20 30 10
Corsicana 72 87 71 87 72 / 90 30 40 50 20
Temple 72 92 71 86 70 / 30 40 50 50 30
Mineral Wells 68 84 67 87 67 / 100 30 30 30 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-144>148.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250609T0035.txt
091
FXUS64 KFWD 081929
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
229 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New Long Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant damaging wind event is likely late tonight into
early Monday morning across North Texas as a complex of storms
races through the region. Widespread severe weather is expected.
- Hot and humid conditions are expected again today with heat
index values up to 105 F this afternoon.
- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be
possible Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025/
/Today Through Monday Afternoon/
BLUF: A significant, damaging wind event is likely tonight across
North Texas and into portions of Central Texas.
North and Central Texas remain in a warm and unstable airmass as a
dryline lingers in far West Texas and a cold front is currently
draped across southern Kansas. Persisting southerly flow under
partly cloudy skies will promote a warm afternoon, with highs in
the 90s. 70+ F dewpoints will make outdoor conditions feel
uncomfortable, with peak heat index values up to around 105. The
pre-storm environment is expected to be volatile, with 3000-4000
J/kg of MLCAPE, 50 KT of deep layer shear, and lapse rates around
7-8 C/km, which will set the stage for this evening. The biggest
change to this afternoon forecast package is that some of the
latest CAM guidance is now highlighting a low potential for the
clusters currently located near Childress to grow upscale and blow
through the region this afternoon. This presents us with two
scenarios:
Scenario 1 is that the western clusters remain more isolated this
afternoon as they move southeast. This is the most likely case at
this time, but could still change depending on how initial storms
develop. With this scenario, the main line of storms is expected
to develop along the front and dryline in the TX/OK Panhandles
late this afternoon as initially discrete supercells with an all-
hazards threat. This activity is expected to rapidly grow upscale
into an MCS this evening as it moves unimpeded towards North
Texas, with potentially some isolated discrete development out
ahead of the main line. Any more discrete storms would have the
potential for very large hail and an increased tornado threat,
mainly confined to our northwestern counties. The main MCS is
expected to move into our northwestern counties around 9-10PM,
reach the DFW Metro/I-35 corridor around 11PM-12AM, and East Texas
around 12-1AM. The main threat tonight will be damaging wind
gusts with a few instances of >80 mph winds. Some large hail would
be possible with any isolated storms that develop ahead of the
main line. Spin up tornadoes will also be possible within the
line, but damaging straight line winds will be the main threat.
Scenario 2 is that the the clusters that are currently to our
west expand and inhibit significant strengthening of the late
evening activity. This is the less likely scenario, but if it
does occur we would see a lesser swath of intense winds across
North Texas. We'll continue to monitor this potential as there is
currently an expanding coverage of storms to the northwest of
Wichita Falls.
Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, and have
your safe space ready and severe weather plan in place. Swaths of
wind damage are likely through late tonight.
The line is expected to exit the region early tomorrow morning,
with the cold front stalling across Central Texas. There may be
some scattered lingering showers and storms across the region
tomorrow morning, but these would remain sub-severe. Additional
storms are likely to develop over Monday afternoon, near the
stalled front and near/north of a lingering NW/SE outflow
boundary.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/
Our unsettled pattern will continue through the rest of this
week, with daily rain chances expected. The stalled cold front
will linger across Central Texas through the first couple days of
the week, providing a focused area for thunderstorm development
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The severe weather threat for
this activity is on the lower end, but cannot rule out a strong to
marginally severe storm with a wind and hail threat. PWATs
between 1.5-2" will continue the threat for heavy rain, and
training thunderstorms could locally increase the flooding threat
in Central Texas. Better chances for severe weather will occur
over midweek. An open shortwave trough will amplify into a closed
low as it moves across the Desert Southwest and slowly ejects
northeast through the Southern Plains. Coverage of storms will
increase Wednesday and Thursday as the low meanders nearby. Strong
to severe storms will be possible, capable of winds and hail. The
caveat to this severe risk is that deep layer shear continues to
be marginal, which makes the extent of the severe threat
uncertain. Additionally long, skinny CAPE and PWATs around 1.5"
will promote periods of heavy rain. This will ramp up the flooding
threat across the region, particularly for areas that have
already received multiple rounds of storms in the days prior.
This low is progged to stick around over the course of the rest of
the week, leading to continued rain chances as we head into the
weekend. Rain chances will become more sparse over the weekend, as
a mid- level ridge to our west begins to nudge east into the
Southern Plains.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 127 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025/
/18Z TAFs/
Southerly winds and VFR will prevail through the rest of this
afternoon. A significant wind event is likely tonight across North
Texas and portions of Central Texas as a line of storms and cold
front quickly move through the region. Damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, particularly across the D10 airports between
04-06Z. During this time, expect reduced visibilities and
northwest wind gusts up to and in excess of 50 kts. ACT will be
impacted closer to 06-08Z. The line will quickly move through,
with maybe an hour or two of additional VCTS before rain comes to
an end. As the storms pass, winds will shift to the northwest and
persist through the end of the period. There may be additional
storms nearby later tomorrow morning and afternoon near the
stalled front in Central Texas, and near a lingering outflow
boundary, but at this time it is uncertain if this will impact any
of the airports.
As for cigs, VFR will prevail through the period, though there is
a low-medium chance for MVFR cigs near daybreak tomorrow, but
guidance is uncertain on locations and NBM probs stay around
20-40%. Have foregone inclusion of this in the TAF for now until
better alignment is noted.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas late
tonight. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 86 71 88 71 / 90 50 40 30 20
Waco 71 87 70 84 70 / 30 30 60 50 20
Paris 68 84 66 86 66 / 90 40 10 5 5
Denton 67 84 67 88 67 / 90 40 30 20 10
McKinney 69 84 67 87 68 / 90 50 30 20 10
Dallas 69 86 70 87 70 / 90 50 40 30 20
Terrell 69 86 68 87 69 / 80 50 40 30 10
Corsicana 73 87 72 87 72 / 60 40 60 50 20
Temple 72 92 71 86 70 / 20 20 60 50 30
Mineral Wells 68 84 67 87 67 / 80 50 50 30 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250608T1929.txt
073
FXUS64 KFWD 081827
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
127 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant damaging wind event is likely late tonight into
early Monday morning across North Texas as a complex of storms
races through the region. Widespread severe weather is expected.
- Hot and humid conditions are expected again today with heat
index values up to 105 F this afternoon.
- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be
possible Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today Through Monday Afternoon/
BLUF: A significant, damaging wind event is likely tonight across
North Texas and into portions of Central Texas.
North and Central Texas remain in a warm and unstable airmass as a
dryline lingers in far West Texas and a cold front is currently
draped across southern Kansas. Persisting southerly flow under
partly cloudy skies will promote a warm afternoon, with highs in
the 90s. 70+ F dewpoints will make outdoor conditions feel
uncomfortable, with peak heat index values up to around 105. The
pre-storm environment is expected to be volatile, with 3000-4000
J/kg of MLCAPE, 50 KT of deep layer shear, and lapse rates around
7-8 C/km, which will set the stage for this evening. The biggest
change to this afternoon forecast package is that some of the
latest CAM guidance is now highlighting a low potential for the
clusters currently located near Childress to grow upscale and blow
through the region this afternoon. This presents us with two
scenarios:
Scenario 1 is that the western clusters remain more isolated this
afternoon as they move southeast. This is the most likely case at
this time, but could still change depending on how initial storms
develop. With this scenario, the main line of storms is expected
to develop along the front and dryline in the TX/OK Panhandles
late this afternoon as initially discrete supercells with an all-
hazards threat. This activity is expected to rapidly grow upscale
into an MCS this evening as it moves unimpeded towards North
Texas, with potentially some isolated discrete development out
ahead of the main line. Any more discrete storms would have the
potential for very large hail and an increased tornado threat,
mainly confined to our northwestern counties. The main MCS is
expected to move into our northwestern counties around 9-10PM,
reach the DFW Metro/I-35 corridor around 11PM-12AM, and East Texas
around 12-1AM. The main threat tonight will be damaging wind
gusts with a few instances of >80 mph winds. Some large hail would
be possible with any isolated storms that develop ahead of the
main line. Spin up tornadoes will also be possible within the
line, but damaging straight line winds will be the main threat.
Scenario 2 is that the the clusters that are currently to our
west expand and inhibit significant strengthening of the late
evening activity. This is the less likely scenario, but if it
does occur we would see a lesser swath of intense winds across
North Texas. We'll continue to monitor this potential as there is
currently an expanding coverage of storms to the northwest of
Wichita Falls.
Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, and have
your safe space ready and severe weather plan in place. Swaths of
wind damage are likely through late tonight.
The line is expected to exit the region early tomorrow morning,
with the cold front stalling across Central Texas. There may be
some scattered lingering showers and storms across the region
tomorrow morning, but these would remain sub-severe. Additional
storms are likely to develop over Monday afternoon, near the
stalled front and near/north of a lingering NW/SE outflow
boundary.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025/
/Next Week and Weekend/
With North and Central Texas situated between a large upper trough
over Ontario and the Great Lakes and the building ridge over the
western CONUS, the weather pattern will remain unsettled through
most of the extended forecast period as northwest flow aloft
persists through at least midweek. At the surface, the cold front
associated with the storm complex arriving during the short term
period will stall over Central Texas providing a focus for early
week convective development while a series of upper level
disturbances move through the flow. Large scale forcing for ascent
will increase notably Wednesday into Thursday as a slow moving
closed upper low/trough migrates across the Plains. Though wind
shear will be more modest, we cannot rule out the potential for a
few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Additionally, this
rainfall may lead to flash/urban flooding along with new and
renewed river flooding, especially given the wet antecedent
conditions. We may FINALLY get a reprieve from the daily rain
chances next weekend as the amplifying upper ridge over the Desert
Southwest builds eastward into the Plains.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Southerly winds and VFR will prevail through the rest of this
afternoon. A significant wind event is likely tonight across North
Texas and portions of Central Texas as a line of storms and cold
front quickly move through the region. Damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat, particularly across the D10 airports between
04-06Z. During this time, expect reduced visibilities and
northwest wind gusts up to and in excess of 50 kts. ACT will be
impacted closer to 06-08Z. The line will quickly move through,
with maybe an hour or two of additional VCTS before rain comes to
an end. As the storms pass, winds will shift to the northwest and
persist through the end of the period. There may be additional
storms nearby later tomorrow morning and afternoon near the
stalled front in Central Texas, and near a lingering outflow
boundary, but at this time it is uncertain if this will impact any
of the airports.
As for cigs, VFR will prevail through the period, though there is
a low-medium chance for MVFR cigs near daybreak tomorrow, but
guidance is uncertain on locations and NBM probs stay around
20-40%. Have foregone inclusion of this in the TAF for now until
better alignment is noted.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas late
tonight. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 70 86 70 87 / 20 90 50 50 30
Waco 94 71 87 71 85 / 0 30 30 50 50
Paris 89 68 84 67 85 / 20 90 40 10 20
Denton 94 67 84 67 87 / 20 90 40 40 30
McKinney 92 69 84 68 86 / 20 90 50 30 30
Dallas 96 69 86 71 87 / 20 90 50 50 40
Terrell 93 69 86 69 86 / 20 80 50 40 40
Corsicana 95 73 87 72 87 / 5 60 40 50 50
Temple 96 72 92 72 89 / 0 20 20 40 50
Mineral Wells 96 68 84 67 86 / 20 80 50 60 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250608T1827.txt
