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407
FXUS64 KFWD 141926
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
226 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly rain-free conditions will linger across North Texas
through sunset. Farther south, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue through sunset Sunday.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday
night across a good portion of North and Central TX. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible across Central Texas late tonight and
Monday, and isolated flash flooding will be a threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
In the wake of the convective complex that moved through much of
North Texas this morning, much of the area, particularly along and
north of the I-20 corridor, remains relatively cool and well
stabilized. As the afternoon progresses, the residual showers
across the northern counties should dissipate, and the regions of
clearing will increase in size. While any additional widespread
precipitation is unlikely before sunset, it's possible enough
late day insolation will occur to induce some renewed
destablization, and hence a few new additional showers or perhaps
thunderstorms. Have generally held PoPs in the 20-30% range from
I-20 northward. Otherwise, generally partly to mostly sunny skies
should be the rule, with temperatures in the rain- cooled areas
eventually rebounding into the upper 80s. In the immediate Red
River counties, readings will struggle just to reach the lower
80s, making for a nice mid June afternoon.
South of the I-20 corridor, especially across the southern third
of our forecast area, a much warmer and more unstable airmass will
hold sway through the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue through sunset, with coverage ranging
from 40-50% across the area.
While a respite from widespread precipitation is expected across
all of North and Central Texas this evening, redevelopment of
showers and thunderstorms should begin to occur after midnight as
another subtle shortwave drops into the region, embedded in the
broad northwesterly flow regime dominating much of the Central
U.S. This synoptic scale lift will be augmented by lower and mid
level convergence occurring in the vicinity of a frontal zone
across Central Texas. Have depicted the highest PoPs across the
southern half of the forecast area from late tonight through the
morning hours Monday. The combination of this lift, accompanied by
high precipitable water values, creates the potential for heavy
rainfall overnight into Monday. Believe amounts for the most part
will remain in the 1 to 3 inch range across this area, but a few
spots may top out anywhere from 3 to 5 inches, particularly in the
belt between Lampasas, Temple and Centerville. With considerable
antecedent rainfall occurring in many of these area, have opted
to issue a Flood Watch for these counties from this evening
through Monday afternoon. Believe the greatest risk for heaviest
rainfall, and potential flash flooding, will exist from the pre-
dawn hours tomorrow morning through midday.
In contrast to the heavier rain threat across the south, the
counties north of I-20/I-30 will see less coverage Monday, and
lower PoPs are depicted in these areas as a result.
High temperatures areawide on Monday will top out anywhere from 5
to 10 degrees below normal for mid June, making for a reasonably
pleasant summer day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Following a relatively cool and wet interval to start the upcoming
week, large-scale lift will diminish across the region, limiting
additional widespread rainfall and inducing a return to much
warmer, but more June-like temperatures through Thursday. High
temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 90s, with heat
indices exceeding 100 degrees in many areas by Thursday.
Another period of lift, associated with renewed troughing and the
potential approach of a weak cold front, will create a renewed
opportunity for shower and thunderstorm activity Friday and
Saturday. Coverage will likely be greatest across Central Texas,
in closer proximity to any enhanced moisture associated with the
disturbed weather expected in the northwest Gulf this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
In the wake of the morning convection, the environment across
North Texas, particularly across D10, will remain reasonably
stable through at least 21z, apart from a few residual showers
between DFW and TXK. As the afternoon progresses, however,
enough clearing and heating may occur to induce some limited
redevelopment of showers, or perhaps even a thunderstorm or two.
Have maintained PROB30s in the Metroplex TAFs through sunset,
though in all honesty, am not confident at all that any additional
convection will occur. Apart from this, VFR conditions should
dominate the D10 TAF sites, with clouds eroding through the
afternoon and evening. A northwesterly surface flow regime should
continue across North Texas through this evening.
Farther south, the atmosphere remains much warmer and more
unstable. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue across Central Texas through the mid afternoon, at least.
For Waco, maintained a TEMPO for showers through 21z. Coverage
should abate after that as the atmosphere gets worked over a bit
in that area. Nevertheless, maintained VCSH with a PROB30 for Waco
through 03z this evening. Winds will initially remain southerly,
but a shift to the northeast should occur by mid afternoon as the
boundary from this morning's North Texas convection reaches this
TAF site.
MVFR ceilings should redevelop at all TAF sites late tonight, and
precipitation activity should tick back up as a renewed period of
large scale lift ensues. Have maintained PROB30 mentions for
SHRA from roughly 08z to 13z in the DFW area, but would not be
totally surprised to see TEMPO conditions included in later
forecasts, if the forcing comes in stronger than expected. While
instability will not be overly great through Monday morning, there
will likely be enough to induce some isolated thunderstorm
development, not unlike what we saw in the DFW area this morning.
MVFR conditions at the D10 and Waco TAF sites should give way to
VFR ceilings after 16z, as morning heating impacts the boundary
layer.
With weak high pressure persisting over the Central Plains, a
a northeasterly flow regime should continue across D10 through
18z Monday, with speeds averaging 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 83 71 89 / 50 40 10 0
Waco 72 81 71 86 / 80 80 20 30
Paris 69 79 66 85 / 50 60 10 0
Denton 67 82 67 88 / 50 30 10 0
McKinney 69 81 68 87 / 50 40 10 0
Dallas 71 84 71 90 / 50 40 10 0
Terrell 70 81 69 87 / 60 60 20 10
Corsicana 72 83 72 88 / 80 80 30 30
Temple 73 82 72 86 / 90 80 40 30
Mineral Wells 67 82 66 88 / 50 30 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening
for TXZ156>158-160-162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260614T1926.txt
501
FXUS64 KFWD 141109
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
609 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
early this morning as a decaying complex moves south across the
Red River.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late in
the day Sunday and Sunday night across a good portion of North
and Central TX. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
main threats.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Minor adjustments were made to timing of the thunderstorms this
morning as the cluster of storms has moved south faster than
earlier anticipated. Gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall
will all continue to be the main hazards as these storms progress
south this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
An expansive line of thunderstorms extends from eastern New
Mexico to central Missouri ahead of a southward surging cold
front. Several outflow boundaries precede the ongoing
thunderstorm activity with a general motion towards North and
Central Texas. The approaching thunderstorm clusters are expected
to continue to progress into our region, fueled by a healthy low-
level jet enhancing vertical forcing along the individual outflow
boundaries.
As the storms cross the Red River this morning, expect a
continued southward progression to the cluster of storms with
lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall the main threats.
Although the overall threat for damaging winds remains low, gusty
winds between 30-40 mph can still produce damage to any loose
items. By early afternoon, the storm cluster or clusters will
likely become less organized with remnant outflows generally south
of the I-20 corridor.
Today's temperatures will largely depend on your location with
respect to the outflow boundaries and cold front. For North Texas,
given the slightly earlier arrival of the thunderstorms,
afternoon highs were decreased by 1-2 degrees compared to the
previous forecast. Highs will likely be in the 80s with heat index
values in the lower to mid 90s. Across Central Texas,
temperatures in the lower 90s will yield heat index values between
99 to 103 degrees.
As outflow boundaries and the front move south, storm chances
will increase across Central Texas, mainly this afternoon and
evening. With the front likely stalling south of the I-20 corridor
overnight, rain chances will persist with isolated to scattered
non-severe thunderstorms.
Regarding precipitation amounts for today, given the scattered
nature of the thunderstorms, rainfall amounts vary significantly
over short distances. Most-likely rainfall totals will generally
range from 0.5 to 1.25 inches, however, slow-moving storms may
produce 2-3" over a concentrated area.
Overnight, another shortwave will be approaching the Southern
Plains which will lead to an uptick in showers and storms across
much of the region prior to sunrise. The early Monday morning
activity will remain below severe limits with lightning and brief
heavy rain the main threats.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Scattered showers and storms will continue after sunrise on Monday
as a slow-moving shortwave generates large-scale forcing for
ascent across our region. The latest guidance suggest the stalled
front will be draped across Central Texas, therefore, rain
chances will be the highest from Waco to Athens to Palestine. A
few showers or storms cannot be ruled out as far north as the I-30
corridor during the first half of the day on Monday, however,
overall rain chances in North Texas will range from 20-30%.
On Tuesday, mid-level dry air will arrive from the northwest,
ending precipitation chances across North and Central Texas.
Additionally, southerly flow will once again become established,
setting the stage for a warming trend after a rather "cool" Monday.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The
warmest days will be Wednesday and Thursday as weak ridging builds
in from the south. Temperatures by the middle of the week will be
in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values generally between
100-105 degrees.
As we approach the latter half of the week, confidence in the
forecast drops off as there is a potential for another cold front
to move across the region. This would increase rain chances once
again as well as bring in slightly cooler weather. For now, we'll
maintain a 40-50% chance of showers and storms Thursday into
Friday with a continued unsettled weather pattern through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Storms are now entering D10 TRACON and will continue to progress
southward towards all Dallas/Fort Worth TAF sites. Thunderstorm
chances will be highest generally between 12z to 16z as periodic
waves of storms move across the metroplex.
Northeasterly winds will accompany the cluster of storms, likely
leading to a flow change this morning. A temporary reprieve from
storms is looking likely this afternoon and much of tonight,
however, storm chances will return early Monday morning with
scattered showers and storms once again impacting the TRACON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 70 81 70 / 90 70 50 10
Waco 91 73 81 71 / 60 70 60 40
Paris 82 68 78 66 / 80 70 50 10
Denton 83 67 80 67 / 90 60 40 10
McKinney 83 69 79 68 / 90 60 40 10
Dallas 85 71 82 70 / 80 70 50 10
Terrell 86 70 80 69 / 70 80 60 20
Corsicana 89 73 83 72 / 60 80 70 40
Temple 91 74 82 72 / 60 80 70 40
Mineral Wells 87 67 80 66 / 60 60 50 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260614T1109.txt
052
FXUS64 KFWD 140712
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
212 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
early this morning as a decaying complex moves south across the
Red River.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late in
the day Sunday and Sunday night across a good portion of North
and Central TX. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
main threats.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
An expansive line of thunderstorms extends from eastern New
Mexico to central Missouri ahead of a southward surging cold
front. Several outflow boundaries precede the ongoing
thunderstorm activity with a general motion towards North and
Central Texas. The approaching thunderstorm clusters are expected
to continue to progress into our region, fueled by a healthy low-
level jet enhancing vertical forcing along the individual outflow
boundaries.
As the storms cross the Red River this morning, expect a
continued southward progression to the cluster of storms with
lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall the main threats.
Although the overall threat for damaging winds remains low, gusty
winds between 30-40 mph can still produce damage to any loose
items. By early afternoon, the storm cluster or clusters will
likely become less organized with remnant outflows generally south
of the I-20 corridor.
Today's temperatures will largely depend on your location with
respect to the outflow boundaries and cold front. For North Texas,
given the slightly earlier arrival of the thunderstorms,
afternoon highs were decreased by 1-2 degrees compared to the
previous forecast. Highs will likely be in the 80s with heat index
values in the lower to mid 90s. Across Central Texas,
temperatures in the lower 90s will yield heat index values between
99 to 103 degrees.
As outflow boundaries and the front move south, storm chances
will increase across Central Texas, mainly this afternoon and
evening. With the front likely stalling south of the I-20 corridor
overnight, rain chances will persist with isolated to scattered
non-severe thunderstorms.
Regarding precipitation amounts for today, given the scattered
nature of the thunderstorms, rainfall amounts vary significantly
over short distances. Most-likely rainfall totals will generally
range from 0.5 to 1.25 inches, however, slow-moving storms may
produce 2-3" over a concentrated area.
Overnight, another shortwave will be approaching the Southern
Plains which will lead to an uptick in showers and storms across
much of the region prior to sunrise. The early Monday morning
activity will remain below severe limits with lightning and brief
heavy rain the main threats.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Scattered showers and storms will continue after sunrise on Monday
as a slow-moving shortwave generates large-scale forcing for
ascent across our region. The latest guidance suggest the stalled
front will be draped across Central Texas, therefore, rain
chances will be the highest from Waco to Athens to Palestine. A
few showers or storms cannot be ruled out as far north as the I-30
corridor during the first half of the day on Monday, however,
overall rain chances in North Texas will range from 20-30%.
On Tuesday, mid-level dry air will arrive from the northwest,
ending precipitation chances across North and Central Texas.
Additionally, southerly flow will once again become established,
setting the stage for a warming trend after a rather "cool" Monday.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The
warmest days will be Wednesday and Thursday as weak ridging builds
in from the south. Temperatures by the middle of the week will be
in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values generally between
100-105 degrees.
As we approach the latter half of the week, confidence in the
forecast drops off as there is a potential for another cold front
to move across the region. This would increase rain chances once
again as well as bring in slightly cooler weather. For now, we'll
maintain a 40-50% chance of showers and storms Thursday into
Friday with a continued unsettled weather pattern through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
VFR conditions are ongoing across North and Central Texas,
however, this will be changing as we continue through the morning
as a cluster of storms moves in from the North. The latest
guidance suggests this cluster of storms will be preceded by a
southward surging outflow boundary which will generate
northeasterly winds for several hours. Thunderstorms will then
move into the D10 TAF sites with on and off thunderstorm activity
expected between 14-17z. For Central Texas, expect to see a period
of MVFR conditions, however, precipitation will remain to the
north of the terminal.
Heading into the afternoon, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
south of the DFW Metroplex TAF sites with en route traffic impacts
possible. Waco will then see an increase potential for
thunderstorm activity closer to 22z and continue through around
sunset.
A temporary lull in precipitation is likely late this afternoon
and evening before additional showers and storms develop after
midnight. Storms will remain isolated to scattered, therefore,
direct impact to terminals remains highly uncertain at this time.
This will continue to be assessed in subsequent TAF issuance.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 70 81 70 / 70 70 50 10
Waco 91 73 81 71 / 40 70 60 40
Paris 83 68 78 66 / 80 70 50 10
Denton 86 67 80 67 / 70 60 40 10
McKinney 86 69 79 68 / 70 60 40 10
Dallas 89 71 82 70 / 60 70 50 10
Terrell 89 70 80 69 / 50 80 60 20
Corsicana 91 73 83 72 / 40 80 70 40
Temple 91 74 82 72 / 40 80 70 40
Mineral Wells 88 67 80 66 / 70 60 50 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260614T0712.txt
779
FXUS64 KFWD 140003
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
703 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
early Sunday morning as a decaying complex moves south across
the Red River.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late in
the day Sunday and Sunday night across a good portion of North
and Central TX. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
main threats.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
A quiet night is expected across North and Central TX this evening
but thunderstorms will become better organized off to our north
during the overnight hours. These storms will spread south across
the Red River early Sunday morning before weakening by midday.
Latest guidance suggests that this activity will be a little more
robust than previously forecast and is likely to push into the
I-20 corridor through the morning hours. For this update, we've
raised PoPs through midday primarily along and north of I-20.
Otherwise, we've just made some tweaks to timing of redevelopment
through the afternoon and evening hours. There is likely to be a
lull in convection after the morning stuff dies off and additional
storms develop along convective outflows and the main frontal
boundary itself by late afternoon/evening.
Concerning heat...areas south of I-20 into Central TX will likely
be impacted by cloud cover initially, but late afternoon temps
will climb into the low/mid 90s. Based on the current T/Td
forecast, this yields a few hours of 101-104 heat index values
across the Brazos Valley.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Temperatures this afternoon have reached the mid 90s across north
Texas. Dewpoints in the low 70s, resulting in heat indices of 100-
104. Anyone participating in outside activities should take proper
precautions to avoid heat exhaustion by staying hydrated and taking
frequent breaks in the shade as much as possible. Areas west of a
line from Lampasas to Decatur are less humid so heat indices there
are in the mid to upper 90s.
The pattern will become active again for tomorrow through tomorrow
night. An upper-level trough axis will move to the Great Lakes
tonight through Sunday which will flatten out the ridge across north
Texas. Several embedded shortwaves should traverse the southern
Plains on Sunday and Sunday night. At the surface, a cold front will
move into north Texas tomorrow morning and stall along the I-30
corridor. Hi-res models show that showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the Red River overnight in southeast Oklahoma then
slowly push into northeast Texas after sunrise. While this initial
activity may weaken or dissipate by mid-morning, new scattered
storms are expected to develop along and near the front by early
afternoon. Forecast soundings show a small inverted V near the
surface so some locally gusty downburst winds could occur with any
cell that develops. However, locally heavy rainfall will be the
bigger concern with PWATs of 1.8-2.3 inches. A widespread flood
event is not expected during the daytime, but given the plentiful
moisture in this airmass, any cell could produce a quick 1-2 inches
of rain. Furthermore, repeated rounds of storms over any location
could result in locally higher amounts of near 3 inches. Outside of
convection, the airmass will be quite hot and humid with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The dewpoints look to be in the
low to mid 70s which would put heat indices in the 100-104 degree
range yet again. However, additional clouds and precipitation
compared to today could result in lower afternoon temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Chances for rain and thunderstorms will increase Sunday night as
another wave of upper-level energy approaches the region from the
north-central US. Storm coverage should start to increase by late
Sunday evening across the I-30 corridor and activity will slowly
push southeastward through Monday morning. Additional heavy rainfall
of 1-2 inches could occur with these storms as PWAT values increase
to around 2.5 inches in some places. The highest rain chances should
shift southeastward through the day and be mostly confined to the
Brazos Valley and east Texas. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a
concern for these areas as storms could produce 1-2 inches with
higher amounts possible.
The southern Plains should remain in a predominantly northwest flow
aloft pattern for the middle to latter part of next week. The
frontal boundary should continue further southward on Tuesday and
allow rain chances to be confined mainly to southeast Texas although
some lingering showers and storms could occur for the Brazos Valley.
Southerly surface flow will return by midweek. This should allow
hot and humid conditions to return for Wednesday and Thursday. High
temperatures could push back into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s. There is a low to medium (20-50%) chance that
heat indices could reach 100-105 for both days. The X factor,
however, is that a weak tropical system that will move northeast out
of south Texas on Wednesday. This could introduce some higher rain
chances for Thursday and Friday. For now, these were kept to 30-40%
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
VFR will prevail through the rest of the evening with south winds
15 to 20 kt. These winds will diminish a bit early Sunday morning
ahead of a decaying complex of thunderstorms. These storms will
likely push into the D10 airspace after sunrise and we'll carry a
VCTS by 13Z with a TEMPO for -TSRA from 14-17Z. Activity is
expected to diminish around midday with convective outflow and the
actual frontal boundary pushing south of the major airports during
the afternoon. Additional storms are expected to develop along
these boundaries, but the expectation is that any storms will be
south of the airports when they develop. An expansion in coverage
is expected through the late evening hours. We'll have a PROB30
right now for late afternoon/early evening storm potential with
better probs likely overnight. Further adjustments to timing are
expected over the next 12-24 hours.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 90 70 81 / 10 60 60 30
Waco 77 93 72 81 / 0 40 90 70
Paris 76 85 68 78 / 30 80 50 40
Denton 78 87 67 81 / 20 80 50 20
McKinney 78 87 68 79 / 10 80 60 30
Dallas 79 91 71 82 / 0 60 70 40
Terrell 77 90 70 80 / 0 60 80 70
Corsicana 77 92 73 83 / 0 40 90 80
Temple 76 92 73 82 / 0 40 80 80
Mineral Wells 76 88 67 80 / 0 60 60 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kearney
LONG TERM....Kearney
AVIATION...Dunn
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260614T0003.txt
