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752
FXUS64 KFWD 130033
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
733 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas
through 8 PM Sunday.
- A stray shower or storm (10-20% chance) may move into Lamar and
Fannin Counties through 10 pm this evening.
- Near-record high temperatures will continue into the upcoming
work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Thunderstorms forming along an outflow boundary in southern Oklahoma
are slowly moving toward Fannin and Lamar Counties, but radar and
satellite trends indicate these storms are weakening as the sun sets
and as they approach a less favorable thermodynamic environment. A
few locations, particularly in northern Lamar County, may see light
rain, but widespread precip is not expected.
Today's heat was brutal by September standards, and tomorrow
unfortunately looks to be cut from a similar cloth. Large-scale
subsidence from the ridge overhead and similar moisture to today
should keep us hot and humid, pushing heat index values or
temperatures over criteria for heat headlines tomorrow across most
of North and Central TX. As a result, we have extended the Heat
Advisory through tomorrow evening for the same areas as today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
As ridging amplifies over the South and Southeast CONUS, high
heights building in across the region will result in clear skies
and dry conditions for the vast majority of those across North
and Central Texas. Temperatures will remain at near record warm
levels for this time of year with triple digit highs expected this
weekend for much of the region.
Despite strong diurnal mixing during the afternoon and evening
hours, deep Gulf moisture will remain in place especially along
and east of the I-35 corridor with dew points struggling to drop
below the upper-60s/lower-70s. This combined with temperatures
ranging from 95-103 will result in afternoon heat indices in the
100-108 degree range today. As such, a Heat Advisory has been
issued for much of the area today through 8 PM. There may need to
be another Heat Advisory for areas along and east of the I-35
corridor tomorrow, but uncertainties in the degree of diurnal
mixing precludes an issuance decision at this time. Regardless,
heat indices Sunday afternoon and evening will be very hot, likely
ranging from 100-104 with isolated pockets (primarily north of
I-20 and east of I-35) of 105-106 degree heat indices possible.
Given the amount of boundary layer moisture in place and strong
diurnal heating expected, a stray shower or thunderstorm can't be
ruled out (10-15% chance) across portions of Central Texas and for
areas North of I-20 and east of I-35. However, strong synoptic
scale subsidence and the lack of any surface boundaries in the
area may very well prevent the development of any convection
across the region this weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Strong upper-level ridging and surface high pressure are expected
to dominate the region's weather pattern this upcoming work week.
Expect dry conditions and near-record highs (95-103 degrees) each
day.
Just beyond the current forecast period, some medium-range
guidance suggests a cold front may make it as far south as Texas
sometime next weekend. We will continue to monitor this signal and
discuss it more in future forecasts should subsequent model runs
continue to resolve this scenario.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
VFR conditions will likely prevail at all TAF sites, aside from the
low (10-15%) chance for brief MVFR ceilings at KACT tomorrow morning
around 11-14Z. Given the low probability of this scenario, we have
kept morning stratus out of the 0Z TAF. Expect relatively light S/SE
winds around 8-12 KT through the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 81 101 / 0 10 10 0
Waco 77 100 77 100 / 10 10 0 0
Paris 76 100 76 100 / 20 10 10 0
Denton 78 100 78 101 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 77 99 77 101 / 10 10 10 0
Dallas 81 102 81 101 / 0 10 10 0
Terrell 77 100 77 101 / 10 10 10 0
Corsicana 77 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 0
Temple 76 100 75 99 / 10 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Fenske
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260913T0033.txt
765
FXUS64 KFWD 121655
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1155 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas
through 8 PM this evening.
- A stray shower or storm (10-15% chance) can't be ruled out
across portions of East and Central Texas this afternoon.
- Near-record high temperatures will continue into the upcoming
work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
As ridging amplifies over the South and Southeast CONUS, high
heights building in across the region will result in clear skies
and dry conditions for the vast majority of those across North
and Central Texas. Temperatures will remain at near record warm
levels for this time of year with triple digit highs expected this
weekend for much of the region.
Despite strong diurnal mixing during the afternoon and evening
hours, deep Gulf moisture will remain in place especially along
and east of the I-35 corridor with dew points struggling to drop
below the upper-60s/lower-70s. This combined with temperatures
ranging from 95-103 will result in afternoon heat indices in the
100-108 degree range today. As such, a Heat Advisory has been
issued for much of the area today through 8 PM. There may need to
be another Heat Advisory for areas along and east of the I-35
corridor tomorrow, but uncertainties in the degree of diurnal
mixing precludes an issuance decision at this time. Regardless,
heat indices Sunday afternoon and evening will be very hot, likely
ranging from 100-104 with isolated pockets (primarily north of
I-20 and east of I-35) of 105-106 degree heat indices possible.
Given the amount of boundary layer moisture in place and strong
diurnal heating expected, a stray shower or thunderstorm can't be
ruled out (10-15% chance) across portions of Central Texas and for
areas North of I-20 and east of I-35. However, strong synoptic
scale subsidence and the lack of any surface boundaries in the
area may very well prevent the development of any convection
across the region this weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Strong upper-level ridging and surface high pressure are expected
to dominate the region's weather pattern this upcoming work week.
Expect dry conditions and near-record highs (95-103 degrees) each
day.
Just beyond the current forecast period, some medium-range
guidance suggests a cold front may make it as far south as Texas
sometime next weekend. We will continue to monitor this signal and
discuss it more in future forecasts should subsequent model runs
continue to resolve this scenario.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
There is a low chance (10-20%) for periodic MVFR CIGS at KACT
11Z-15Z. However, confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this
time. Otherwise, VFR conditions and southerly flow (150-200) at
7-13 knots will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this
forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 81 101 81 / 0 0 10 10
Waco 101 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 0
Paris 99 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 10
Denton 102 78 101 78 / 0 0 10 0
McKinney 102 77 101 77 / 10 0 10 10
Dallas 102 81 102 81 / 0 0 10 10
Terrell 101 77 101 77 / 0 0 10 10
Corsicana 100 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10
Temple 100 76 100 75 / 10 10 10 0
Mineral Wells 102 74 101 75 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260912T1655.txt
208
FXUS64 KFWD 121054
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas
this afternoon. Heat indices of up to 107 can be expected.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible east of I-35
this afternoon.
- Above-average temperatures will continue into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
In the wake of the pair of shortwave troughs that transited the
region Thursday and Friday, subtropical ridging is once again
expected to build in this weekend. While associated subsidence
will act to hinder precipitation chances throughout the period,
10% PoPs have been introduced east of I-35 for this afternoon as
subtle ascent downstream of an embedded shortwave progresses
southeast across the ArkLaTex. Elsewhere, a few of the 00z CAMs
are hinting at isolated thundershowers developing in Central
Texas, likely suggestive of sporadic convective temperature
breaching. Confidence is too low to include in the official
forecast at this time.
Temperatures will climb in accordance with the increasing heights
aloft, ranging from the upper 90s across the Brazos Valley/extreme
Northeast Texas to the lower 100s elsewhere. A Heat Advisory has
been issued for most of North and Central Texas for the day on
Saturday to account for heat indices of up to 107. Local ambient
air temperatures will be maximized generally west of I-35 and
north of I-20, however southwesterly downslope flow in response
to lee cyclogenesis across the panhandle will act to reduce
surface dewpoint values with westward extent. Temperatures look to
be a few degrees cooler for Sunday and Monday, with partly cloudy
skies and light southerly winds prevailing.
Dornsife
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Persistent mid level ridging is expected to continue through the
latter half of the week resulting in continued above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation chances. The pattern
over the Central and Northern Plains will become increasingly active
through Friday. As it does, one or more cold fronts will sag south
through the Plains gradually resulting in increasing showers and
storms mainly to our north. While temperatures are likely to remain
in the upper 90s through much of the week, there is still some
indication that the ridging will begin to break down headed into
next weekend. This should eventually bring temperatures back down
closer to seasonal norms with an uptick in rain chances.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
IFR ceilings have developed within Balcones Escarpment topographic
uplift near KACT this morning. Observations at the Temple and Waco-
James airports are reporting a 600-1,000 ft cloud deck amidst
continued cooling and southerly moisture advection. Opted to TEMPO
IFR until 13Z, at which point diurnal insolation should alleviate
ceiling concerns.
Thereafter, VFR with southerly flow around 10 kts and a few diurnal
cumulus of bases 6-8 kft are expected across all terminals for the
day on Saturday. Very isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible east of I-35 and across Central Texas this afternoon. While
direct impacts to any TAF sites appears unlikely, convective outflow
and associated temporary wind shifts will be monitored should storms
develop.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 98 75 99 75 / 20 0 0 0
Denton 102 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 102 81 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 100 76 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 77 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 102 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260912T1054.txt
535
FXUS64 KFWD 120615
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
115 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas
this afternoon. Heat indices of up to 107 can be expected.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible east of I-35
this afternoon.
- Above-average temperatures will continue into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
In the wake of the pair of shortwave troughs that transited the
region Thursday and Friday, subtropical ridging is once again
expected to build in this weekend. While associated subsidence
will act to hinder precipitation chances throughout the period,
10% PoPs have been introduced east of I-35 for this afternoon as
subtle ascent downstream of an embedded shortwave progresses
southeast across the ArkLaTex. Elsewhere, a few of the 00z CAMs
are hinting at isolated thundershowers developing in Central
Texas, likely suggestive of sporadic convective temperature
breaching. Confidence is too low to include in the official
forecast at this time.
Temperatures will climb in accordance with the increasing heights
aloft, ranging from the upper 90s across the Brazos Valley/extreme
Northeast Texas to the lower 100s elsewhere. A Heat Advisory has
been issued for most of North and Central Texas for the day on
Saturday to account for heat indices of up to 107. Local ambient
air temperatures will be maximized generally west of I-35 and
north of I-20, however southwesterly downslope flow in response
to lee cyclogenesis across the panhandle will act to reduce
surface dewpoint values with westward extent. Temperatures look to
be a few degrees cooler for Sunday and Monday, with partly cloudy
skies and light southerly winds prevailing.
Dornsife
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Persistent mid level ridging is expected to continue through the
latter half of the week resulting in continued above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation chances. The pattern
over the Central and Northern Plains will become increasingly active
through Friday. As it does, one or more cold fronts will sag south
through the Plains gradually resulting in increasing showers and
storms mainly to our north. While temperatures are likely to remain
in the upper 90s through much of the week, there is still some
indication that the ridging will begin to break down headed into
next weekend. This should eventually bring temperatures back down
closer to seasonal norms with an uptick in rain chances.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
VFR conditions with southerly flow around 10 kts and a few diurnal
cumulus of bases 6-8 kft are expected for the day on Saturday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible generally east
of I-35 during the afternoon. While direct impacts to any TAF
sites appears unlikely at this time, convective outflow and any
associated temporary wind shifts will be monitored should storms
develop.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 98 75 99 75 / 20 0 0 0
Denton 102 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 102 81 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 100 76 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 77 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 102 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260912T0615.txt
