Home
222
FXUS64 KFWD 111850
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above-normal temperatures expected today and Friday. Areas of
fog will be possible across the Brazos Valley Friday morning.
- A strong cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday
with highs in the 40s and 50s.
- Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region by the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
South-southwesterly low-level flow will lead to a couple of days
of above-average temperatures in the short-term forecast period.
Expect high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s across most of
North and Central Texas both today and Friday. Boundary-layer
moisture will quickly increase early Friday across parts of
Central Texas and the Brazos Valley ahead of a weak cold front
that is expected to stall near the Highway 84 corridor by Friday
evening. Patchy fog will be possible Friday morning in our
southeastern zones. Little change but a light northerly wind shift
is expected with this frontal passage.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Low clouds will increase in coverage across Central Texas into
Friday night with light precipitation possible near and south of
the aforementioned boundary, primarily in our Brazos Valley
Counties, Saturday into Sunday. A stronger push of cold and dry
air will arrive Saturday night dropping temperatures into the mid
20s along the Red River by early Sunday morning. Temperatures will
struggle to escape the 40s along and north of the I-20 corridor on
Sunday with low 50s likely down in Central Texas. Widespread
freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night with another
chilly day of widespread 50s likely on Monday. Increasing south-
southwesterly gradient flow ahead of our next compact upper trough
will draw greater quality moisture northward over the region and
tick temperatures back to above-average by Tuesday. Lift
associated with this passing synoptic feature may lead to the
development of isolated to scattered showers, primarily east of
I-35, Tuesday and Wednesday. However, if this upper-level
trough/low passes south of our region into northern Mexico (as
highlighted by the ECMWF), then rain chances will likely remain
near zero. Nonetheless, a prolonged period of southerly low-level
flow will lead to an extended stretch of above-normal temperatures
with afternoon highs approaching/exceeding 70 degrees by
Wednesday of next week. There is a ~40% chance that afternoon
highs approach 80 degrees in Central Texas by next weekend, which
would place temperatures near 20 degrees above average for this
time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
VFR conditions and southerly surface winds generally below 15 kts
will prevail through much of the TAF period for all North and
Central Texas terminals. Low stratus and/or areas of fog may
develop across the Brazos Valley early Friday morning, but any
development should stay southeast of KACT (less than 15% chance of
terminal impacts). A weak front will shift into the Metroplex near
17Z Friday turning winds back out of the north at 5-10 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 45 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 65 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 61 42 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 66 41 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 64 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 65 46 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 64 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 66 47 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 67 43 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 71 42 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20251211T1850.txt
788
FXUS64 KFWD 111115
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
515 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above-normal temperatures return today and Friday.
- A strong cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday
with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.
- Rain chances will increase slightly through the middle of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Surface high pressure is currently centered right over North Texas
with light winds and mostly clear skies allowing temperatures to
fall into the low 30s in some spots. Clear calm nights can often
result in significant temperature variances across small distances
and we're seeing that tonight with readings varying as much as 11
degrees over a few miles. Some thin high cloud cover is streaming
through our Red River counties and this will continue into the
morning hours. Thursday should feature mostly sunny skies beneath
a dry northwest flow aloft. A surface low deepening in the Central
Plains will allow winds to become southerly later this morning and
increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon. This system will move east
tonight and another weak cold front will slide southward through
the area on Friday. Little temperature change is expected behind
this front, but winds will become northerly through the day.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
A strong Great Lakes trough will progress eastward on Saturday and
send a 1044 mb surface high into the mid-Mississippi Valley by
Saturday evening. Leading this surge of high pressure will be
a strong cold front that will move through North Texas Saturday
evening. Brisk northeast winds and much cooler air will spill
southward Saturday night. This front should also come through
generally dry, but there will be more cloud cover associated with
the cold air behind the front. These clouds will likely linger
into early Sunday accompanied by some very light rain chances
across our eastern counties late Saturday night into the morning
hours on Sunday. Sunday will be cold with most areas struggling to
get out of the 40s and wind chills remaining in the 30s for much
of the day. We'll be watching another upstream disturbance spread
in from the west on Tuesday which will likely result in some
increasing rain chances particularly east of I-35 through the mid
week period.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Near calm winds will prevail for another few hours under a canopy
of thin high clouds. South winds will increase to around 10 kt
later this morning and continue into tonight. Another weak front
will approach the region tomorrow around midday and we'll have
winds coming back around to the north around 17Z Friday. VFR will
prevail through the period with no significant aviation concerns
expected.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 44 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 65 44 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 60 42 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 66 40 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 64 42 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 65 46 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 64 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 66 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 67 43 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 70 42 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20251211T1115.txt
818
FXUS64 KFWD 110604
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1204 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above-normal temperatures return today and Friday.
- A strong cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday
with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.
- Rain chances will increase slightly through the middle of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Surface high pressure is currently centered right over North Texas
with light winds and mostly clear skies allowing temperatures to
fall into the low 30s in some spots. Clear calm nights can often
result in significant temperature variances across small distances
and we're seeing that tonight with readings varying as much as 11
degrees over a few miles. Some thin high cloud cover is streaming
through our Red River counties and this will continue into the
morning hours. Thursday should feature mostly sunny skies beneath
a dry northwest flow aloft. A surface low deepening in the Central
Plains will allow winds to become southerly later this morning and
increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon. This system will move east
tonight and another weak cold front will slide southward through
the area on Friday. Little temperature change is expected behind
this front, but winds will become northerly through the day.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
A strong Great Lakes trough will progress eastward on Saturday and
send a 1044 mb surface high into the mid-Mississippi Valley by
Saturday evening. Leading this surge of high pressure will be
a strong cold front that will move through North Texas Saturday
evening. Brisk northeast winds and much cooler air will spill
southward Saturday night. This front should also come through
generally dry, but there will be more cloud cover associated with
the cold air behind the front. These clouds will likely linger
into early Sunday accompanied by some very light rain chances
across our eastern counties late Saturday night into the morning
hours on Sunday. Sunday will be cold with most areas struggling to
get out of the 40s and wind chills remaining in the 30s for much
of the day. We'll be watching another upstream disturbance spread
in from the west on Tuesday which will likely result in some
increasing rain chances particularly east of I-35 through the mid
week period.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
VFR will prevail through the period beneath some passing high
clouds. A light north wind overnight will become southerly and
increase to 10 to 15 kt Thursday afternoon. No significant
aviation concerns are expected through the period.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 38 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 65 37 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 63 33 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 64 31 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 65 34 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 66 39 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 65 34 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 66 37 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 68 34 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 65 34 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20251211T0604.txt
129
FXUS64 KFWD 102335
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above-normal temperatures will return Thursday and Friday.
- A strong cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday
with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.
- Rain chances will tick upward toward the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Our forecasted cold front has now surged into Central Texas with
gusty north winds up to 30 mph at times prevailing behind FROPA.
Better cold-air advection will reside over the Southeast CONUS,
but still expect temperatures to only top out in the low to mid
60s later this afternoon. Surface ridging will settle over the
region later this evening with winds diminishing to calm-5 mph
after 6PM. Light winds, clear skies and a dry airmass will allow
for a night of efficient radiational cooling with temperatures
expected to drop into the low to mid 30s by early Thursday
morning. A few of our rural, low-lying locations may briefly dip
below freezing around sunrise Thursday.
Light south-southwest winds will return to North and Central Texas
after midnight tonight increasing to 10-15 mph after sunrise
Thursday morning. Afternoon highs should climb into the upper 60s
to low 70s west of I-35 Thursday afternoon with low to mid 60s
expected elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
A series of cold fronts will push through the Southern Plains
later this week and into the weekend. The first front (weaker)
will arrive early Friday, with little to no rain chances and
negligible temperature changes. The second, stronger frontal
passage is expected to arrive late Saturday-early Sunday knocking
high temperatures Sunday into early next week back into the upper
40s to mid 50s. Low rain chances are in the forecast across East
Texas in the deeper PWAT airmass during this timeframe. More
widespread precipitation may return to the region in the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe of next week as deterministic and ensemble
guidance highlights increasing moisture return ahead of our next
Southern Plains shortwave trough.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all North and
Central Texas terminals. A post-frontal surface ridge is currently
centered over the region with light and at times variable winds in
place. Winds will become southerly before sunrise, increasing to
around 10-12 kt by mid to late morning with occasional gusts
possible by the afternoon. No significant aviation concerns are
expected through Thursday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 38 65 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 37 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 33 60 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 31 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 34 63 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 39 65 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 34 63 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 37 65 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 34 66 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 34 70 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...12
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20251210T2335.txt
