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FXUS64 KFWD 222344
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
644 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- This weekend will be seasonably hot, with low rain chances
continuing in Central Texas through Saturday.
- A cold front will arrive early next week, bringing below normal
temperatures and daily rain chances through the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 242 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/
/Through Sunday Night/
The combination of leftover boundaries from this morning's
convection and weak ascent on top of a moist boundary layer will
continue to support isolated to scattered showers/storms through
early this evening. Recent radar imagery shows isolated showers
generally along and south of I-20/30 corridor. This trend will
continue the rest of the afternoon with the best potential for
storms across Central Texas. Given there's plenty of dry air
aloft, this activity should remain sub-severe. However, brief
moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds may still accompany some
of the stronger cells. Similar to the last few days, most of the
activity will diminish near/after sunset with mostly quiet
weather expected overnight.
The weekend is still shaping up to be mostly dry and hot. Some of
the CAMs do show a few diurnally driven showers and storms across
the east/southeast on Saturday where a little bit of lift
combines with the best humidity. Otherwise, we're looking at
highs in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and Sunday with the heat
index values staying between 94 to 101. Winds will generally be
from the east/northeast as the high pressure remains west of our
region.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 242 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/
/Next Week/
Changes to our weather pattern are still in the forecast for next
week. The mid-level ridge across the west will weaken at the same
time a stronger long-wave trough settles over the eastern U.S.
This will keep most of the southern Plains under northwest flow
aloft sending multiple clusters of showers/storms south into the
region. At the same time, a strong cold front will travel south
early next week. Guidance is coming into better agreement that the
front will push south across our region, with daily rain and
storm chances through Friday. At this time, the best chances are
forecast on Tuesday especially for North Texas with 50-60% chance.
Average rainfall totals through next week are generally less than
2 inches for North Texas and less than 1 inch for Central Texas.
Based on the latest models, the probability of receiving at least
widespread 3" of rain across our region remains less than 10%.
Otherwise, we will enjoy the nice slightly cooler weather. While
the high temperature will depend on how much rain and cloud cover
we get, there's still a good signal that we will stay in the 80s
Wednesday through Friday, slowly warming up by next weekend.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Outflow boundaries from convective activity earlier in the day
have resulted in highly variable wind directions during the past
few hours. However, a more uniform SE direction should become
established this evening while speeds decrease to around 5 kts.
Additional wind shifts are forecast overnight into Saturday
morning, with winds veering westerly after midnight followed by
northwesterly after sunrise tomorrow as an ill-defined surface
boundary progresses southward. There is a small chance for diurnal
shower and thunderstorm activity near Waco tomorrow afternoon,
but this potential is too low to include in the TAF. Convection
should remain absent from D10 airports. VFR will prevail with
daytime cumulus around 6 kft.
-Stalley
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 96 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
Waco 72 94 73 95 74 / 5 10 0 5 5
Paris 72 94 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 5 5
Denton 72 97 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 5 5
McKinney 72 96 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 5 5
Dallas 77 98 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 5 5
Terrell 72 96 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 5 5
Corsicana 73 96 74 96 75 / 5 5 0 5 5
Temple 70 94 71 95 72 / 10 20 0 5 5
Mineral Wells 70 96 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250822T2344.txt
137
FXUS64 KFWD 221942
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
242 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through
early this evening, with the highest rain chances across
Central Texas.
- This weekend will be seasonably hot and generally rain-free.
- A cold front will arrive early next week, bringing below normal
temperatures and daily rain chances through the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Night/
The combination of leftover boundaries from this morning's
convection and weak ascent on top of a moist boundary layer will
continue to support isolated to scattered showers/storms through
early this evening. Recent radar imagery shows isolated showers
generally along and south of I-20/30 corridor. This trend will
continue the rest of the afternoon with the best potential for
storms across Central Texas. Given there's plenty of dry air
aloft, this activity should remain sub-severe. However, brief
moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds may still accompany some
of the stronger cells. Similar to the last few days, most of the
activity will diminish near/after sunset with mostly quiet
weather expected overnight.
The weekend is still shaping up to be mostly dry and hot. Some of
the CAMs do show a few diurnally driven showers and storms across
the east/southeast on Saturday where a little bit of lift
combines with the best humidity. Otherwise, we're looking at
highs in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and Sunday with the heat
index values staying between 94 to 101. Winds will generally be
from the east/northeast as the high pressure remains west of our
region.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Next Week/
Changes to our weather pattern are still in the forecast for next
week. The mid-level ridge across the west will weaken at the same
time a stronger long-wave trough settles over the eastern U.S.
This will keep most of the southern Plains under northwest flow
aloft sending multiple clusters of showers/storms south into the
region. At the same time, a strong cold front will travel south
early next week. Guidance is coming into better agreement that the
front will push south across our region, with daily rain and
storm chances through Friday. At this time, the best chances are
forecast on Tuesday especially for North Texas with 50-60% chance.
Average rainfall totals through next week are generally less than
2 inches for North Texas and less than 1 inch for Central Texas.
Based on the latest models, the probability of receiving at least
widespread 3" of rain across our region remains less than 10%.
Otherwise, we will enjoy the nice slightly cooler weather. While
the high temperature will depend on how much rain and cloud cover
we get, there's still a good signal that we will stay in the 80s
Wednesday through Friday, slowly warming up by next weekend.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/
/18z TAFs/
VFR conditions will continue through the period. Outside of a few
showers developing near the I-20/30 corridor, most of this
afternoon activity is expected to remain across Central Texas
including the potential for thunderstorms. VCTS was introduced at
Waco through 00Z this evening, but confidence on direct impacts
to the airfield is low. Otherwise, light easterly winds will
prevail through tonight becoming more variable overnight and
eventually northerly during the day tomorrow.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 96 76 96 / 10 0 0 0 5
Waco 92 72 94 73 95 / 20 5 10 0 5
Paris 93 72 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton 93 72 97 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 5
McKinney 94 72 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 0 5
Dallas 95 77 98 76 97 / 20 0 0 0 5
Terrell 94 72 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 0 5
Corsicana 93 73 96 74 96 / 20 5 5 0 5
Temple 92 70 94 71 95 / 30 10 20 0 5
Mineral Wells 91 70 96 70 96 / 20 0 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250822T1942.txt
726
FXUS64 KFWD 221809
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
109 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through
this afternoon, with the highest rain chances across Central
Texas.
- This weekend will be seasonably hot and generally rain-free.
- A cold front will arrive early next week, bringing below normal
temperatures and daily rain chances through the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/
/Through Saturday Afternoon/
Though subsidence generally prevails aloft, weak ascent along the
eastern flank of the Four Corners upper ridge and the still
moderately moist boundary layer over North and Central Texas will
support another round of isolated to scattered convection this
afternoon. Compared to recent days, coverage should be lower with
the better lift and moisture focused primarily across the Brazos
Valley into Southeast Texas. Isolated storms may even develop as
far north as the Metroplex along residual boundaries during the
peak heat of the day before diminishing in the evening. The
primary hazards will again be lightning, brief heavy downpours,
and gusty outflows from pulse-type cells.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm today but thankfully several
degrees lower than earlier this week amid light northeasterly
flow and slightly drier air in the lower levels. Highs will be in
the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values generally near or
below 100 degrees. One last diurnal push of convection is possible
across our southernmost row of counties (Lampasas to Leon Co.) on
Saturday, where mesoscale boundaries and differential heating
linger, while subsidence strengthens farther north. Any activity
should wane toward the evening.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/
/Saturday Night through next Thursday/
The main focus of the extended period continues to be the
potential for a stronger backdoor cold front early next week as a
northern stream trough digs across the eastern CONUS and flattens
the western ridge. There is still meaningful uncertainty regarding
how far southwest the cooler air penetrates. If the boundary
stalls over North and Central Texas, repeated northwest flow
disturbances could send convective clusters into the area leading
to higher rain coverage through the week. If the front hangs up to
our northeast, we would still carry daily rain chances, but
amounts and areal coverage would be lower. Currently, the axis of
heavier rain is draped across Oklahoma with a broad but lighter
footprint south of the Red River with average totals around
0.25-0.75" through Thursday.
Temperatures will depend on the timing and strength of the front
as well as cloud cover and the effects of precipitation. Ensemble
guidance shows a notable spread in highs by Wednesday and
especially Thursday, including an almost 10 degree 25th to 75th
percentile range across North Texas (the difference between highs
in the 80s and highs in the 90s). The overall pattern still
favors a cooler and wetter start to next week with below-normal
temperatures most likely by Tuesday.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/
VFR conditions will continue through the period. Outside of a few
showers developing near the I-20/30 corridor, most of this
afternoon activity is expected to remain across Central Texas
including the potential for thunderstorms. VCTS was introduced at
Waco through 00Z this evening, but confidence on direct impacts
to the airfield is low. Otherwise, light easterly winds will
prevail through tonight becoming more variable overnight and
eventually northerly during the day tomorrow.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 96 76 96 / 10 0 0 0 5
Waco 92 72 94 73 95 / 20 5 10 0 5
Paris 93 72 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton 93 72 97 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 5
McKinney 94 72 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 0 5
Dallas 95 77 98 76 97 / 10 0 0 0 5
Terrell 94 72 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 0 5
Corsicana 93 73 96 74 96 / 10 5 5 0 5
Temple 92 70 94 71 95 / 30 10 20 0 5
Mineral Wells 91 70 96 70 96 / 20 0 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20250822T1809.txt
