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245
FXUS64 KFWD 160731
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
231 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty north winds will persist through this morning following
Sunday's cold frontal passage. Unsecured outdoor items may be
blown around in the wind, and driving may be difficult for
high-profile vehicles.
- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today due to
gusty winds and low humidity. Extreme care is urged during all
outside activities where there is a potential for grass fires
to get started.
- A late season freeze is expected for portions of North and
Central Texas this morning and again Tuesday morning.
Sensitive plants will need to be covered or brought inside.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
North and Central Texas remains on the backside of the weekend
storm system, and although the Wind Advisory was allowed to
expire at 1 AM, breezy to locally windy conditions will linger
through much of the day today. The region remains sandwiched
between departing low pressure to the east and surface high
pressure to the west, maintaining a tightened pressure gradient
with a strong 925 mb jet over the area. With the boundary layer
still mixed overnight, some of that momentum will continue
reaching the surface and support frequent gusts of 25 to 35 mph
with a few isolated gusts nearing 40 mph possible through the pre-
dawn hours. A few very light west-to-east drifting radar returns
have been noted across parts of North and East Texas this morning.
These appear to be tied to weak lift along a 700 mb frontal zone
with the echoes clearly elevated and evaporating before reaching
the ground.
Winds will gradually ease through the day Monday, but sustained
speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 to 30 mph will remain
common while cold advection continues. This morning's lows were
nudged a few degrees below the blended initialization to better
align with recent MOS guidance, leading to temperatures at or
below freezing for areas along and north of a Goldthwaite to
Canton line. This combination of temperatures and wind speeds will
result in wind chills in the teens and 20s areawide this morning.
Even with full sun, it will remain a much colder day than normal
for mid March with highs mostly in the 40s and 50s this afternoon.
Fire weather concerns will continue today, though the threat will
be less critical than Sunday. A Grass Fire Danger Statement will
be issued for the entire forecast area as afternoon relative
humidity falls into the 15 to 20 percent range while breezy north
winds persist. Despite the cooler temperatures, these conditions
may still support fire starts and spread, particularly in grasses
and other fine fuels. Any outdoor burning should continue to be
avoided. Monday night into early Tuesday morning will be the
coldest period of the week in terms of temperatures as winds
diminish further and efficient radiational cooling develops
beneath clear skies. Nearly the entire forecast area is expected
to fall to or below freezing by sunrise Tuesday, and another
freeze headline may be needed.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
As mentioned above, Tuesday will begin with widespread
subfreezing temperatures, but the pattern will already be in the
process of changing. Surface high pressure will shift into East
Texas before daybreak, allowing southerly flow to return and
bringing a swift end to the brief post-frontal cold spell. After a
cold start, temperatures will recover steadily through the day
Tuesday with the warming trend expected to continue through the
latter part of the week and into the weekend as ridging strengthens
over the Southern Plains. The overall pattern looks dry and quiet
with no meaningful precipitation signal through the end of the
period.
By late week, the story will shift from lingering cold to unusual
early season warmth. Friday marks the first day of astronomical
spring, but temperatures by then will feel much more like late May
than late March. Highs are forecast to climb to as much as 30
degrees above seasonal normals by Saturday, supported by strong
subsidence beneath the ridge and anomalously warm air aloft.
Ensemble guidance from the NAEFS and ECMWF places 850 mb
temperatures near +20 C which is close to the upper edge of the
historical distribution for this time of the year. This lends
confidence to the potential for near-record to record warmth late
week into next weekend. Given how strong the signal is, daily
March records at both DFW and Waco will be worth watching closely.
DFW climate records to watch:
- March 20th: 92 (set in 2017), current forecast high is 90
- March 21st: 100 (record is likely safe)
- March 22nd: 93 (set in 1934, tied in 1995), current forecast high is 92
Waco climate records to watch:
- March 20th: 88 (set in 1907, tied in 1916 and 1976), current
forecast high is 91
- March 21st: 93 (set in 1916), current forecast high is 93
- March 22nd: 89 (set in 1995), current forecast high is 92
In addition to the warming trend, fire weather concerns may begin
creeping back into the area later this week. While winds do not
currently look as strong as we experienced this weekend,
persistent dry weather, increasingly warm temperatures, and the
return of periodically breezy southerly flow will continue drying
fuels. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions may re-emerge,
especially across the western half of the forecast area where
deeper afternoon mixing will favor lower humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with gusty north winds
continuing at all TAF sites in the wake of Sunday's cold front.
Sustained winds around 20 kt with gusts to near 30 kt will
persist through much of Monday morning, gradually easing through
the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes and the post-
frontal LLJ weakens. Skies will remain mostly clear aside from passing
cirrus. North winds will continue to diminish Monday evening
before becoming light and turning southeasterly overnight as
surface high pressure shifts east of the region.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 33 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 52 29 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 46 27 60 43 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 50 28 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 49 29 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 52 33 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 50 29 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 53 31 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 53 30 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 52 28 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>134-141>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260316T0731.txt
566
FXUS64 KFWD 152315
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
615 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty north winds will persist through tonight following
today's cold frontal passage. Unsecured outdoor items may be
blown around in the wind, and driving may be difficult for
high-profile vehicles.
- Critical fire weather conditions continue through this evening
due to high winds and low humidity. Extreme care is urged
during all outside activities where there is a potential for
grass fires to get started.
- A late season freeze is expected for portions of North and
Central Texas tonight and again Monday night. Sensitive plants
will need to be covered or brought inside.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
With this evening's update, have expanded the Freeze Warning a
couple rows of counties southward based on recent colder guidance,
and this product now encompasses all of North Texas where
lows will dip to 25-33 degrees by tomorrow morning. While we are
right around our climatological average last freeze date, the
exceptionally warm February and early March has allowed most
vegetation to already be in bloom, and freezing temperatures
tonight (and also tomorrow night) could have significant impacts
on sensitive plants. Otherwise, the cold front has cleared the
entire area to the southeast as of 530 PM, and convective chances
along it have ceased within the CWA, accordingly. Gusty northwest
winds of 45-55 mph will continue through the early evening before
speeds gradually decline in the proceeding several hours. However,
they will remain breezy overnight and through most of the daytime
tomorrow with gusts as high as ~35 mph still possible after the
Wind Advisory expires at 1 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The stout cold front has entered our northwestern counties as of
2 PM and is currently located near a Bonham-McKinney-Hamilton
line. Behind the front, a sharp northerly wind shift is occurring
with wind gusts between up to around 45 MPH. These strong winds
have kicked up a bit of dust that is currently moving through
western and central North Texas, easily seen on the Dust RGB GOES
Satellite channel. The layer of dust will move south along with
the front, making for a hazy afternoon for much of North and
Central Texas. Peak wind gusts for this afternoon remain between
40-50 MPH, however, there is a low (10%) chance for higher gusts
up to 55-60 MPH in portions of North Texas. In these pockets of
highest gusts, sporadic broken tree limbs and powerlines may
occur. Strong and gusty winds will persist through the rest of
this afternoon and night, with the current Wind Advisory in effect
until 1 AM Monday.
Much drier air behind the front will result in humidity dropping
to between 20-25% across areas near and west of the I-35 corridor
this afternoon and evening, while a slightly later FROPA will aid
in keeping temperatures ahead of the boundary in the 70s and 80s.
The dry conditions and gusty winds will create increased fire
weather threats for the western half of the region. Outdoor
burning is highly discouraged today as the threat for wildfires is
high. There is a critical threat that any fire that develops will
grow uncontrollable. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
areas near and west of I-35 until 9 PM.
This will be a dry FROPA for the majority of the region due to a
lack of meaningful moisture out ahead of the boundary. However,
there continues to be a narrow corridor in far East Texas where
moisture will be able to pool along the boundary and produce
isolated to scattered storms. Coverage will remain low (20-30%),
but the environment would be capable of a couple stronger storms
with a wind and hail threat. The highest threat for storms and
severe weather will remain to our east where storms along the
boundary can grow upscale into more of a linear storm mode.
Expect quickly falling temperatures behind the front. Winds will
slowly decrease in intensity overnight, remaining around 15-20 mph
with gusts to around 25-35 mph. These breezy conditions will
continue to push much colder air into the region from the north,
with overnight lows expected to plummet into the upper 20s to low
30s in the Big Country and near/north of US-380, to the mid-upper
30s elsewhere. Although it is still technically winter, many of
the native/in-ground and potted vegetation in the region has
started to green-up. Therefore, a Freeze Warning was issued for
portions of North Texas early Monday morning as any temperature-
sensitive plants that have greened-up need to be covered or
brought inside. Breezy conditions will keep morning wind chills
colder in the upper teens to near 30 degrees tomorrow morning, so
make sure to bundle up on your way out the door! Monday afternoon
is expected to be a bit less breezy, and will remain cooler than
normal with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be the coldest period of
the forecast as the post-frontal surface high finally slides
through the region and substantially lightens winds. Most everyone
outside of highly urban locations will be below freezing, with
Tuesday morning lows ranging between 28-32. Some spots that are
more urban are likely to hover just above freezing around 33-35
degrees. Wind chills will remain in the 20s to around 32 degrees,
so another morning of bundling up is necessary. Thankfully, this
colder air is temporary. By Tuesday, the shortwave and parent
trough will be pushing into the eastern CONUS, with a building
mid-level ridge moving in behind it. Southerly flow will return on
Tuesday, and with increasingly subsident air moving into the
region, will allow for a warming trend as we head through the rest
of the week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Gusty north winds prevail at all TAF sites following today's cold
frontal passage, causing aviation impacts due to turbulence and
LLWS. While current gusts remain near 40 kts, they will gradually
decline to around 20G30KT by midnight, and these wind speeds will
prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Some haze and blowing
dust have also accompanied the frontal passage, and visibility at
Waco has intermittently been reduced to IFR/MVFR levels.
Visibility will gradually improve there this evening. Otherwise,
mostly clear VFR skies will prevail through tomorrow with some
passing cirrus.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 32 52 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 33 52 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 28 46 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 29 50 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 31 50 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 33 53 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 32 50 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 34 53 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 34 53 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 29 53 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>134-141>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Stalley
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260315T2315.txt
275
FXUS64 KFWD 151934
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
234 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong north winds with gusts to around 50 mph are expected
this afternoon and evening. Unsecured outdoor items may be
blown around in the wind and driving on area roadways may
become difficult for high-profile vehicles.
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected near and west of
Interstate 35 through this evening due to high winds and low
humidity. Extreme care is urged during all outside activities
where there is a potential for grass fires to get started.
- There remains a low chance for a couple strong to marginally
severe storms with a wind and hail threat in far East Texas
this afternoon.
- A late season freeze is expected for portions of North and
Central Texas Sunday and Monday nights. Sensitive plants will
need to be covered or brought inside.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The stout cold front has entered our northwestern counties as of
2 PM and is currently located near a Bonham-McKinney-Hamilton
line. Behind the front, a sharp northerly wind shift is occurring
with wind gusts between up to around 45 MPH. These strong winds
have kicked up a bit of dust that is currently moving through
western and central North Texas, easily seen on the Dust RGB GOES
Satellite channel. The layer of dust will move south along with
the front, making for a hazy afternoon for much of North and
Central Texas. Peak wind gusts for this afternoon remain between
40-50 MPH, however, there is a low (10%) chance for higher gusts
up to 55-60 MPH in portions of North Texas. In these pockets of
highest gusts, sporadic broken tree limbs and powerlines may
occur. Strong and gusty winds will persist through the rest of
this afternoon and night, with the current Wind Advisory in effect
until 1 AM Monday.
Much drier air behind the front will result in humidity dropping
to between 20-25% across areas near and west of the I-35 corridor
this afternoon and evening, while a slightly later FROPA will aid
in keeping temperatures ahead of the boundary in the 70s and 80s.
The dry conditions and gusty winds will create increased fire
weather threats for the western half of the region. Outdoor
burning is highly discouraged today as the threat for wildfires is
high. There is a critical threat that any fire that develops will
grow uncontrollable. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
areas near and west of I-35 until 9 PM.
This will be a dry FROPA for the majority of the region due to a
lack of meaningful moisture out ahead of the boundary. However,
there continues to be a narrow corridor in far East Texas where
moisture will be able to pool along the boundary and produce
isolated to scattered storms. Coverage will remain low (20-30%),
but the environment would be capable of a couple stronger storms
with a wind and hail threat. The highest threat for storms and
severe weather will remain to our east where storms along the
boundary can grow upscale into more of a linear storm mode.
Expect quickly falling temperatures behind the front. Winds will
slowly decrease in intensity overnight, remaining around 15-20 mph
with gusts to around 25-35 mph. These breezy conditions will
continue to push much colder air into the region from the north,
with overnight lows expected to plummet into the upper 20s to low
30s in the Big Country and near/north of US-380, to the mid-upper
30s elsewhere. Although it is still technically winter, many of
the native/in-ground and potted vegetation in the region has
started to green-up. Therefore, a Freeze Warning was issued for
portions of North Texas early Monday morning as any temperature-
sensitive plants that have greened-up need to be covered or
brought inside. Breezy conditions will keep morning wind chills
colder in the upper teens to near 30 degrees tomorrow morning, so
make sure to bundle up on your way out the door! Monday afternoon
is expected to be a bit less breezy, and will remain cooler than
normal with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be the coldest period of
the forecast as the post-frontal surface high finally slides
through the region and substantially lightens winds. Most everyone
outside of highly urban locations will be below freezing, with
Tuesday morning lows ranging between 28-32. Some spots that are
more urban are likely to hover just above freezing around 33-35
degrees. Wind chills will remain in the 20s to around 32 degrees,
so another morning of bundling up is necessary. Thankfully, this
colder air is temporary. By Tuesday, the shortwave and parent
trough will be pushing into the eastern CONUS, with a building
mid-level ridge moving in behind it. Southerly flow will return on
Tuesday, and with increasingly subsident air moving into the
region, will allow for a warming trend as we head through the rest
of the week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The front is currently through the D10 sites and will move through
ACT shortly. West-southwest winds ahead of the front will quickly
shift out of the north with increasing wind speeds. Peak wind
speeds this afternoon will range between 25-30 KT with gusts up to
40-45 KT through about 04-05Z this evening. Dust kicked up by
these winds may reduce visibility at times, going to MVFR.
Confidence on prevailing MVFR vis is low as observations just
upstream remain VFR, so have not included a mention of 4-5 SM vis
at this time.
Winds will slightly lessen late tonight, but remain elevated with
gusts up to 25-30 KT expected to persist overnight until a couple
hours before daybreak before gradually decreasing through the
rest of tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but reports of
wind damage or wind-related impacts are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 35 52 35 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 87 36 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 30 46 28 / 20 0 0 0
Denton 79 31 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 80 33 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 83 35 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 82 34 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 85 36 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 88 36 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 80 32 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>117-123-129-130-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260315T1934.txt
521
FXUS64 KFWD 151053
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front on Sunday will bring strong north winds with gusts
to around 50 mph. Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around
in the wind and driving on area roadways may become difficult
for high-profile vehicles.
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected near and west of
Interstate 35 on Sunday due to high winds and low humidity.
Extreme care is urged during all outside activities where there
is a potential for grass fires to get started.
- There remains a low chance for a couple strong to marginally
severe storms with a wind and hail threat in far East Texas
Sunday Afternoon.
- A late season freeze is expected for portions of North and
Central Texas Sunday and Monday nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A strong cold front will sweep south through North and Central
Texas today, replacing the current unseasonably warm airmass with
a much colder, very windy, and much drier post-frontal airmass.
The large scale pattern remains straightforward, with a vigorous
trough ejecting through the Central Plains and strong pressure
rises spreading south behind the front. This setup will support a
rapid increase in north winds immediately behind the boundary,
along with a sharp drop in temperatures and a corridor of critical
fire weather conditions near and west of I-35. While most of the
forecast area will remain dry, there will also be a narrow window
for a few showers or storms to develop across our far eastern
counties before the front overtakes the warm, unstable air and
pushes the convective threat east of the area. In other words,
Sunday will begin feeling more like a breezy spring day, but it
will not end that way.
Cold Front/Temperatures...
The front and strongest post-frontal winds should reach Graham
and Sherman areas between 10 AM and noon, then progress into the
DFW Metroplex and nearby portions of North Texas between noon and
2 PM. Farther south and east toward Terrell and Waco, the most
likely arrival window is between 2 PM and 4 PM, with the far
southern and southeastern parts of the forecast area seeing the
strongest winds arrive between 4 PM and 6 PM. This progression
will disrupt the usual diurnal temperature trend, so many
locations will likely observe their high temperatures during the
late morning or early afternoon before readings fall steadily
through the rest of the day. Areas across North Texas will see the
most pronounced drop, while Central Texas may hold onto warmth a
bit longer before the colder air arrives late in the afternoon and
evening.
Winds...
Non-thunderstorm winds will be the dominant impact for most of
the area. Behind the front, a rapid increase in north winds is
expected with sustained speeds generally between 25 to 35 mph and
peak gusts of 40 to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
the entire forecast area through 1 AM Monday, and this still looks
well justified given the expected strength and duration of the
post-frontal wind field. Ensemble guidance continues to support
widespread advisory level winds, though a few spots across the
northwestern half of the area may briefly overperform if post-
frontal mixing taps into stronger momentum just above the surface.
While gusts above 50 mph are not expected to be widespread, they
cannot be ruled out entirely in a few locations during the first
few hours behind the boundary when pressure rises and cold
advection will be strongest. These winds will create difficult
travel for high-profile vehicles, especially on east-west roads
and for northbound traffic. Additionally, these winds will blow
around unsecured outdoor furniture, decorations, and trash cans.
Anything lightweight left outdoors today should be secured before
the front arrives.
Fire Weather...
In the wake of the front, very strong non-thunderstorm winds will
combine with relative humidity dropping into the 15 to 25 percent
range. Despite recent rainfall, fuels remain receptive enough to
support rapid fire spread, so any ignition in this environment
could become difficult to control quickly. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for areas along and west of the I-35 corridor
through 9 PM. Farther east, higher humidity and low storm chances
should temper the fire weather threat somewhat, but the wind shift
and drying trend will still be noticeable as the front pushes
through. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged regionwide today.
A low-end but non-zero severe threat will also exist across our
far eastern counties this afternoon where a narrow ribbon of
better moisture may overlap the frontal lift for a short period of
time. Most of the forecast area should remain dry, but a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out near the eastern fringe of the
CWA before convection is undercut by the front and shifts into
East Texas. Damaging winds would be the primary concern with any
storm that develops, though overall storm coverage should remain
limited. By Sunday night, the convective threat will have ended,
but the post-frontal impacts will continue as strong north winds
persist and temperatures continue to fall. Lows by daybreak Monday
will drop into the upper 20s and 30s, and with sustained winds
still around 10 to 20 mph and higher gusts, wind chills in the
teens and 20s appear likely. The abruptness of the change from
Sunday morning to Monday morning will be one of the more notable
aspects of this forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
By Monday morning, North and Central Texas will be on the back
side of the late weekend system though the impacts will continue
to linger through the afternoon. Although winds should be lower
than Sunday afternoon, it will remain breezy with north winds
around 10 to 20 mph and occasional gusts to near 25 mph through
much of the day. Continued cold advection will lead to a cold
start with afternoon highs only reaching the 40s and 50s despite
abundant sunshine. Wind chills in the teens and 20s early Monday
will gradually improve through the day, but Monday will still feel
much more like winter than mid March. Any lingering fire weather
concern should be lower than Sunday, though dry air and breezy
north winds may still support localized elevated fire weather
conditions.
Monday night into Tuesday morning will likely be the coldest
temperatures of the extended forecast as winds gradually ease and
high pressures settles over the region. After that, the broader
pattern becomes much quieter as the upper trough pulls away and
ridging begins to build over the Southern Plains. Southerly
return flow should return by Tuesday allowing temperatures to
quickly rebound into the 70s and 80s by midweek with widespread
highs in the 90s moving in just in time for the weekend. If the
current forecast verifies a few daily temperature records may be
in danger. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the end of
the period with no meaningful precipitation signal at this time.
Even though the long term turns quieter quickly, fire weather
concerns may not disappear entirely. The combination of warming
temperatures, dry fuels, and periodic breezy southerly flow later
in the week may allow elevated fire weather conditions to reemerge
in parts of the area, especially west of I-35 where deeper mixing
tends to dry the boundary layer more efficiently. For now, the
main message is that the most impactful weather ends in stages
rather than all at once: the strongest winds diminish Sunday
night, but the cold and breezy conditions will still be with us
through Monday before a quieter and much warmer pattern returns
later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
MVFR ceilings around 1.5-2 kft will continue at all TAF sites
through mid morning before lifting and scattering from west to
east by 14-15Z. South winds remain strong early this morning, and
while the more frequent 30+ kt gusts associated with the
strengthening low-level jet have eased some over the last hour,
sustained winds near 15-20 kt will persist until boundary layer
mixing increases again and gust frequency picks back up by late
morning. Winds will veer to the south-southwest and then west
ahead of the approaching cold front, with a brief period of minor
crosswind impacts between 17-19Z. The front should move through
the Metroplex around 19Z and Waco near 20Z, bringing an abrupt
shift to strong north-northwest winds with sustained speeds around
30 kt and gusts near 40 kt through the afternoon and evening.
Winds will ease some overnight, but gusty north winds will
continue through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 34 52 35 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 86 38 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 75 30 47 28 / 20 0 0 0
Denton 76 28 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 78 32 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 82 36 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 80 33 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 83 36 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 88 36 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 78 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-123-129>134-141>146.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Monday for
TXZ122-135-147-148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260315T1053.txt
