Home
090
FXUS64 KFWD 290012
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
712 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Tuesday Morning/
As of early this evening, the majority of activity has exited our
region aside from scattered storms across eastern Central Texas,
and rogue storms in North Texas. Overall, the severe threat has
greatly diminished as we near the close of our multi-day weather
event. Lingering showers and storms in our southeast will
eventually exit closer to midnight tonight, bringing rain chances
to an end. Through the rest of tonight, expect light and variable
winds and continued clearing skies. In response to primed, moist
soils, we expect a bank of patchy radiation fog across most of the
forecast area to blossom just after midnight. Expect lowered
visibilities to impact your commute through mid-morning, with some
areas becoming dense. If you find yourself within dense fog, make
sure to slow down, use your fog lights, and give yourself plenty
of time to get to your destination!
By Monday afternoon, any patchy fog should erode and leave behind
mostly clear skies through the rest of the day. There is potential
for clouds to linger a bit longer due to easterly winds at the
surface and low-levels and their accompanying upslope component,
but this is still uncertain and something to watch out for
tomorrow. Otherwise, expect a nice afternoon with some mid-level
cloud cover as the base of an upper level longwave trough moves
across the Southern Plains. High temperatures for the day will
peak in the 80s region-wide for a nice end-of-April day.
A quiet night is expected tomorrow night as lee surface
cyclogenesis to our northwest shifts winds back to the south.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the 60s. Another round of
patchy fog is possible, but this time will be advection-induced.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/
Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak
disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the
dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located
over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take
place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks
to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two
may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.
Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the
trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the
dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level
support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to
scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region
Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may
enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active
sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat
will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a
lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.
The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains
Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow
upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an
attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as
activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with
precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the
front.
Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on
Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal
day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly
increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again
become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a
warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is
uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the
warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue
into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start
the following week as ridging develops aloft.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Convection has ended at all TAF sites, aside from a storm west of
D10 as of 00Z. There is still uncertainty on if this will keep
shape long enough to make it to the D10 sites, so we will continue
to watch over the next couple of hours and make adjustments as
necessary.
South-to-southeasterly winds will become light and variable
tonight. Coupled with a primed environment, patchy, sometimes
dense, mist/fog is expected over the TAF sites just after
midnight. The best chances for both LIFR surface and vertical
visibilities/cigs and will be 11-15Z for D10 and 10-14Z for ACT.
There is a TEMPO in place for now, but these lowered vis/cigs
could end up being prevailed if a more substantial fog bank
occurs.
Lingering mist/fog should erode by mid tomorrow morning, with
east-southeast winds below 10 kts through the end of the period.
Prater
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 85 65 85 70 / 5 0 0 5 20
Waco 64 83 63 83 69 / 10 0 0 10 10
Paris 62 81 60 83 66 / 60 0 0 10 10
Denton 61 83 63 84 67 / 5 0 0 5 30
McKinney 63 83 62 83 68 / 10 0 0 10 20
Dallas 64 85 64 85 69 / 5 0 0 10 20
Terrell 63 82 61 84 68 / 40 0 0 10 10
Corsicana 65 84 64 85 69 / 50 0 0 20 10
Temple 65 85 64 84 69 / 10 0 0 20 10
Mineral Wells 58 86 63 86 68 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-159>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20240429T0012.txt
214
FXUS64 KFWD 281959
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
259 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/Through Monday/
The shortwave responsible for last night's storms has exited to
the northeast, but a trailing disturbance is in the process of
generating one last round of convection as it moves east across
the region. Showers and storms should continue to increase in
coverage along and immediately east of the I-35 corridor through
the afternoon. Activity will work its way slowly east through the
afternoon and evening, creating mainly a threat for heavy rain and
flooding. The slow eastward progression of the developing storms will
allow for a southwest-northeast training of showers and
thunderstorms, which will enhance the threat for flash flooding
wherever the training convection occurs. The Flood Watch will
hence continue through 7 PM for areas along and east of I-35.
There is also a threat for severe storms, though morning
convection and the resulting cloud cover may mitigate the overall
severe potential. The highest severe threat will be confined to
the eastern-most counties where the best destabilization will
occur later this afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be
possible in any storm which attains severe thresholds.
Showers and storms will exit it the east (along with the
shortwave) overnight, leaving clearing skies and light winds in
its wake. Lingering moisture, light winds and mostly clear skies
will result in patchy fog formation across a good portion of the
forecast area. If skies clear earlier than forecast, dense fog may
become a concern, but at this time will keep the visibility
forecasts at or above one mile and monitor satellite and METAR
trends tonight. Monday should be a warm but overall quiet day,
with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/
Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak
disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the
dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located
over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take
place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks
to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two
may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.
Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the
trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the
dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level
support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to
scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region
Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may
enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active
sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat
will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a
lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.
The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains
Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow
upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an
attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as
activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with
precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the
front.
Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on
Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal
day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly
increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again
become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a
warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is
uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the
warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue
into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start
the following week as ridging develops aloft.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/18Z TAFs/
Thunderstorms developing across Central Texas will spread north,
affecting parts of the DFW Metroplex early to mid afternoon. Will
keep VCTS at all TAF locations through 22Z. KACT will likely need
a TEMPO for TS for a few hours based on radar trends. Convection
will exit to the east later this afternoon and this evening.
Light winds and clearing skies will lead to fog or LIFR cig
formation overnight/Monday morning, and have opted for a TEMPO
LIFR conditions at all airports from 11Z-15Z Monday. Conditions
will improve after 15Z, followed by VFR and overall quiet aviation
weather for the rest of the forecast period.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 86 65 85 70 / 10 0 0 5 20
Waco 65 86 64 83 69 / 20 0 5 10 10
Paris 63 82 60 83 66 / 60 5 0 10 10
Denton 62 85 62 84 67 / 5 0 0 5 30
McKinney 62 84 62 83 68 / 20 5 0 10 20
Dallas 66 86 64 85 69 / 10 0 0 10 20
Terrell 62 84 62 84 68 / 40 0 0 10 10
Corsicana 65 86 64 85 69 / 50 0 0 20 10
Temple 65 86 64 84 69 / 20 0 5 20 10
Mineral Wells 60 86 62 86 68 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-159>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20240428T1959.txt
163
FXUS64 KFWD 281805
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/
The shortwave responsible for last night's storms has exited to
the northeast, but a trailing disturbance is in the process of
generating one last round of convection as it moves east across
the region. Showers and storms should continue to increase in
coverage along and immediately east of the I-35 corridor through
the afternoon. Activity will work its way slowly east through the
afternoon and evening, creating mainly a threat for heavy rain and
flooding. The slow eastward progression of the developing storms will
allow for a southwest-northeast training of showers and
thunderstorms, which will enhance the threat for flash flooding
wherever the training convection occurs. The Flood Watch will
hence continue through 7 PM for areas along and east of I-35.
There is also a threat for severe storms, though morning
convection and the resulting cloud cover may mitigate the overall
severe potential. The highest severe threat will be confined to
the eastern-most counties where the best destabilization will
occur later this afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be
possible in any storm which attains severe thresholds.
Showers and storms will exit it the east (along with the
shortwave) overnight, leaving clearing skies and light winds in
its wake. Lingering moisture, light winds and mostly clear skies
will result in patchy fog formation across a good portion of the
forecast area. If skies clear earlier than forecast, dense fog may
become a concern, but at this time will keep the visibility
forecasts at or above one mile and monitor satellite and METAR
trends tonight. Monday should be a warm but overall quiet day,
with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
Update:
An active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming workweek after a brief lull on Monday. Additional
opportunities for thunderstorms are forecast from Tuesday through
Friday, although the potential for organized severe weather on any
particular day is still uncertain at this time. Sufficient
shear/instability parameter space for at least an isolated strong
or severe storm will exist on a daily basis as we remain in an
open warm sector though Friday before the arrival of a cold front.
Aside from nominal adjustments to PoPs, minimal changes were
needed from the previous long term forecast.
-Stalley
Previous Discussion:
/Monday Onward/
A lull in the active weather will occur on Monday as the
multitude of upper level systems responsible for this weekend's
thunderstorms shift to the east, and a weak ridge develops
overhead. Storm chances will return on Tuesday, however, as a
shortwave rounds the northern flank of the ridge. This will help
ignite thunderstorms along the dryline, which will be positioned
across the Big Country by Tuesday afternoon. These storms should
remain confined to the western half of the region, keeping the
severe weather potential largely west of the I-35 corridor. A
secondary batch of convection may also occur across the southeast
zones where an active seabreeze may infiltrate Tuesday afternoon.
The southeast storms will likely remain sub-severe, though a few
may produce gusty winds and heavy rain.
By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave will be dropping southeast
through the Rockies, weakening the ridge and generating another
round of dryline convection across the Big Country mid to late
afternoon. A warm and unstable environment along with 35+ knots
of effective shear will support more severe thunderstorm potential
as convection spreads east through the region Wednesday evening.
Storms will dissipate Wednesday night as instability wanes and a
capping inversion strengthens at the 850-700mb level.
A cold front will then approach on Thursday as the shortwave
trough traverses the Plains, providing another focus for showers
and storms along with the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread convection will be the result Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night, with activity pushing south of the region
along with the front on Friday.
A short reprieve in rain chances will occur Friday into Friday
evening before a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet
generates another round of precipitation Friday night into next
Saturday. All of the forecast area should be in the cool sector
following the frontal passage, keeping any thunderstorms elevated
in nature and resulting from isentropic ascent. This should limit
the severe potential, but a strong storm or two would be capable
of producing hail. After a seasonably cool and damp (next)
weekend, a strengthening ridge aloft should lead to a warm-up and
a rain-free start to the following week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Thunderstorms developing across Central Texas will spread north,
affecting parts of the DFW Metroplex early to mid afternoon. Will
keep VCTS at all TAF locations through 22Z. KACT will likely need
a TEMPO for TS for a few hours based on radar trends. Convection
will exit to the east later this afternoon and this evening.
Light winds and clearing skies will lead to fog or LIFR cig
formation overnight/Monday morning, and have opted for a TEMPO
LIFR conditions at all airports from 11Z-15Z Monday. Conditions
will improve after 15Z, followed by VFR and overall quiet aviation
weather for the rest of the forecast period.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 66 86 65 85 / 80 10 0 0 5
Waco 77 65 86 64 83 / 100 20 0 5 10
Paris 73 63 82 60 83 / 100 60 5 0 10
Denton 77 62 85 62 84 / 70 5 0 0 5
McKinney 74 62 84 62 83 / 90 20 5 0 10
Dallas 77 66 86 64 85 / 90 10 0 0 10
Terrell 73 62 84 62 84 / 100 40 0 0 10
Corsicana 74 65 86 64 85 / 90 50 0 0 20
Temple 77 65 86 64 84 / 100 20 0 5 20
Mineral Wells 79 60 86 62 86 / 20 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-159>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20240428T1805.txt
470
FXUS64 KFWD 281045
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Morning through Monday/
A line of generally sub severe thunderstorms continues to move
through North Texas this morning. While this activity has
struggled to produce any severe weather, the threat for localized
flash flooding is increasing as multiple rain gauges have reported
2 to 2.5 inches of rain in an hour across the Metroplex. This line
of storms will continue to slowly move east through the morning,
but the upper support is pulling away and a tight theta-e gradient
will only slowly advance east of I-35 through late morning. This
means that strong low level inflow and moisture transport will
continue to feed into an axis of moderate instability through the
early morning hours supporting locally intense rainfall rates and
an increasing threat for flash flooding. One limiting factor for a
more substantial flash flood threat would be the ability for any
line segments to sustain a cold pool outflow (which may be
happening across Dallas/Ellis/Kaufman counties at this time)
thereby forcing the line eastward and reducing rain rates.
Nonetheless, flash flooding will remain the immediate threat
through the morning.
Concerning the Flood Watch...we'll likely trim off some of our
northern and western counties this morning and leave the eastern
portions of the watch remaining.
As the morning upper support pulls away, the aforementioned
theta-e gradient will become nearly stationary along or just east
of I-35 by midday into the early afternoon. The environment will
become moderately unstable through the afternoon with MLCAPE >2000
J/kg and little inhibition as yet another upstream disturbance
approaches the area. This should support additional thunderstorm
development through the afternoon hours. While mid level lapse
rates will be relatively unimpressive, deep layer shear profiles
will continue to support a severe threat with a damaging wind and
isolated tornado threat through the late afternoon/early evening.
This threat will be highest across our southeast counties and
generally east of I-35. Additional thunderstorms that develop will
move out of our area by late evening.
Tonight and Monday should be fairly quiet with the active pattern
continuing into the middle part of the upcoming week.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
Update:
An active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming workweek after a brief lull on Monday. Additional
opportunities for thunderstorms are forecast from Tuesday through
Friday, although the potential for organized severe weather on any
particular day is still uncertain at this time. Sufficient
shear/instability parameter space for at least an isolated strong
or severe storm will exist on a daily basis as we remain in an
open warm sector though Friday before the arrival of a cold front.
Aside from nominal adjustments to PoPs, minimal changes were
needed from the previous long term forecast.
-Stalley
Previous Discussion:
/Monday Onward/
A lull in the active weather will occur on Monday as the
multitude of upper level systems responsible for this weekend's
thunderstorms shift to the east, and a weak ridge develops
overhead. Storm chances will return on Tuesday, however, as a
shortwave rounds the northern flank of the ridge. This will help
ignite thunderstorms along the dryline, which will be positioned
across the Big Country by Tuesday afternoon. These storms should
remain confined to the western half of the region, keeping the
severe weather potential largely west of the I-35 corridor. A
secondary batch of convection may also occur across the southeast
zones where an active seabreeze may infiltrate Tuesday afternoon.
The southeast storms will likely remain sub-severe, though a few
may produce gusty winds and heavy rain.
By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave will be dropping southeast
through the Rockies, weakening the ridge and generating another
round of dryline convection across the Big Country mid to late
afternoon. A warm and unstable environment along with 35+ knots
of effective shear will support more severe thunderstorm potential
as convection spreads east through the region Wednesday evening.
Storms will dissipate Wednesday night as instability wanes and a
capping inversion strengthens at the 850-700mb level.
A cold front will then approach on Thursday as the shortwave
trough traverses the Plains, providing another focus for showers
and storms along with the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread convection will be the result Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night, with activity pushing south of the region
along with the front on Friday.
A short reprieve in rain chances will occur Friday into Friday
evening before a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet
generates another round of precipitation Friday night into next
Saturday. All of the forecast area should be in the cool sector
following the frontal passage, keeping any thunderstorms elevated
in nature and resulting from isentropic ascent. This should limit
the severe potential, but a strong storm or two would be capable
of producing hail. After a seasonably cool and damp (next)
weekend, a strengthening ridge aloft should lead to a warm-up and
a rain-free start to the following week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
Thunderstorms are continuing through the D10 airspace at this time
and we should see a decrease in activity through the late morning
hours with generally VFR prevailing. While this initial line of
storms will steadily make eastward progress and weaken, additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon generally
along and east of I-35. Right now, it looks like DAL may have the
best chance for additional TS activity this afternoon. VFR should
prevail outside of convective areas, but we'll have to monitor for
some potential visibility reductions early Monday morning.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 66 86 67 84 / 80 5 5 5 20
Waco 79 64 84 64 83 / 100 10 5 5 20
Paris 76 62 81 60 81 / 100 50 5 5 20
Denton 79 61 83 64 83 / 70 0 5 0 10
McKinney 78 63 83 65 83 / 90 5 5 5 20
Dallas 80 65 86 65 85 / 90 5 5 5 20
Terrell 77 64 83 65 82 / 100 30 5 5 20
Corsicana 79 67 85 67 84 / 90 50 5 5 30
Temple 78 66 85 66 84 / 100 10 5 5 20
Mineral Wells 81 59 86 64 86 / 20 0 5 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-
131>135-144>146-159.
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20240428T1045.txt
850
FXUS64 KFWD 280710
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/Today through Monday Afternoon/
The main show of our overnight severe weather event is currently
on our doorstep. We've already seen some severe-caliber storms in
our northwest along the line, with isolated warm advection-
induced convection ahead of the line within western North Texas.
The line will continue to advance eastward through the night and
into this morning as its upper level support swings through the
Central Plains. The environment that the line is moving into is
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, as seen on
the 00Z FWD sounding. The "loaded gun" sounding featured an
uncapped atmosphere with deep layer shear 45-50 kts, MLCAPE of
around 3000 J/kg, and favorable low-level SRH. All this to say:
large hail, damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes will all be
possible through the nighttime hours. The line will gradually
weaken and the severe threat will lessen for some as it moves into
East Texas, however, severe weather will still remain possible.
CAM guidance continues to highlight redevelopment near and east
of the I-35 corridor over the mid-afternoon hours on Sunday as a
shortwave disturbance rounds the base of the departing upper low.
These storms are progged to move east/northeast over the rest of
the day. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms show an
environment with steep lapse rates, sufficient deep layer shear,
and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg (which is a bit more robust than
previous runs). Areas near and east of I-35 will be under another
severe threat, with storms primarily capable of large hail and
damaging winds, and a tertiary tornado threat. Make sure to stay
weather aware tomorrow, especially if attending outdoor
activities.
Through Sunday afternoon, expect average total rainfall amounts of 1-
3" with isolated amounts up to 4-5". These amounts, coupled with
multiple rounds of storms expected through tonight, will
exacerbate the flood threat. This will be especially true in flood
prone areas and in places that have already received heavy
rainfall. The Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM this
evening, but may need to be extended through the evening hours for
portions of eastern Central Texas.
All rain should come to an end by Monday morning, leaving the rest
of the short term period dry. Winds will be light through the
night, and with clearing skies and primed soils, there is
potential for mist/patchy fog and associated visibility
restrictions across much of the area through the morning hours on
Monday. Meanwhile, the base of an eastward- moving longwave
trough will begin to move overtop the region over Monday, but any
associated rain chances should stay to our south where the better
moisture resides. Have left unmentionable 10% PoPs in our
southernmost zones through Monday afternoon to account for the low
possibility of showers developing a bit further north.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
An active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming workweek after a brief lull on Monday. Additional
opportunities for thunderstorms are forecast from Tuesday through
Friday, although the potential for organized severe weather on any
particular day is still uncertain at this time. Sufficient
shear/instability parameter space for at least an isolated strong
or severe storm will exist on a daily basis as we remain in an
open warm sector though Friday before the arrival of a cold front.
Aside from nominal adjustments to PoPs, minimal changes were
needed from the previous long term forecast.
-Stalley
Previous Discussion:
/Monday Onward/
A lull in the active weather will occur on Monday as the
multitude of upper level systems responsible for this weekend's
thunderstorms shift to the east, and a weak ridge develops
overhead. Storm chances will return on Tuesday, however, as a
shortwave rounds the northern flank of the ridge. This will help
ignite thunderstorms along the dryline, which will be positioned
across the Big Country by Tuesday afternoon. These storms should
remain confined to the western half of the region, keeping the
severe weather potential largely west of the I-35 corridor. A
secondary batch of convection may also occur across the southeast
zones where an active seabreeze may infiltrate Tuesday afternoon.
The southeast storms will likely remain sub-severe, though a few
may produce gusty winds and heavy rain.
By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave will be dropping southeast
through the Rockies, weakening the ridge and generating another
round of dryline convection across the Big Country mid to late
afternoon. A warm and unstable environment along with 35+ knots
of effective shear will support more severe thunderstorm potential
as convection spreads east through the region Wednesday evening.
Storms will dissipate Wednesday night as instability wanes and a
capping inversion strengthens at the 850-700mb level.
A cold front will then approach on Thursday as the shortwave
trough traverses the Plains, providing another focus for showers
and storms along with the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread convection will be the result Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night, with activity pushing south of the region
along with the front on Friday.
A short reprieve in rain chances will occur Friday into Friday
evening before a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet
generates another round of precipitation Friday night into next
Saturday. All of the forecast area should be in the cool sector
following the frontal passage, keeping any thunderstorms elevated
in nature and resulting from isentropic ascent. This should limit
the severe potential, but a strong storm or two would be capable
of producing hail. After a seasonably cool and damp (next)
weekend, a strengthening ridge aloft should lead to a warm-up and
a rain-free start to the following week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 119 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/06Z TAFs/
Scattered showers and storms have popped up across D10 over the
last couple hours and will continue to do so ahead of the main
line of storms. The line will directly impact D10 between 9-13Z,
and ACT 12-14Z. During this time, expect occasionally gusty
westerly winds and the potential for hail and spin-up tornadoes,
mainly closer to D10. Lingering precipitation is expected behind
the line until the mid-morning, before a lull in precipitation is
expected. Ceilings should lift somewhat, allowing low VFR to
return to all TAF sites mid-late afternoon. Redevelopment is
possible near and east of the airports mid afternoon and will move
east by the evening. Skies will more efficiently clear out
tonight with VFR prevailing.
There is the potential for lowered visibilities due to mist over
Monday morning, but have only included this potential at KDFW as
it is at the end of the period.
Prater
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 65 85 67 84 / 80 5 5 5 20
Waco 78 66 84 64 83 / 90 10 5 5 20
Paris 76 61 81 61 81 / 90 40 5 5 20
Denton 80 60 83 64 83 / 60 0 5 0 10
McKinney 78 63 83 64 83 / 90 5 5 0 20
Dallas 80 65 85 65 85 / 90 5 5 5 20
Terrell 77 64 83 65 82 / 100 30 5 5 20
Corsicana 80 67 85 67 84 / 90 40 5 5 30
Temple 79 66 85 66 84 / 90 10 5 5 20
Mineral Wells 82 59 86 64 86 / 30 0 5 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-
131>135-144>146-159.
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for
TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20240428T0710.txt
298
FXUS64 KFWD 280619
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
119 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Monday Afternoon/
The main show of our overnight severe weather event is currently
on our doorstep. We've already seen some severe-caliber storms in
our northwest along the line, with isolated warm advection-
induced convection ahead of the line within western North Texas.
The line will continue to advance eastward through the night and
into this morning as its upper level support swings through the
Central Plains. The environment that the line is moving into is
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, as seen on
the 00Z FWD sounding. The "loaded gun" sounding featured an
uncapped atmosphere with deep layer shear 45-50 kts, MLCAPE of
around 3000 J/kg, and favorable low-level SRH. All this to say:
large hail, damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes will all be
possible through the nighttime hours. The line will gradually
weaken and the severe threat will lessen for some as it moves into
East Texas, however, severe weather will still remain possible.
CAM guidance continues to highlight redevelopment near and east
of the I-35 corridor over the mid-afternoon hours on Sunday as a
shortwave disturbance rounds the base of the departing upper low.
These storms are progged to move east/northeast over the rest of
the day. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms show an
environment with steep lapse rates, sufficient deep layer shear,
and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg (which is a bit more robust than
previous runs). Areas near and east of I-35 will be under another
severe threat, with storms primarily capable of large hail and
damaging winds, and a tertiary tornado threat. Make sure to stay
weather aware tomorrow, especially if attending outdoor
activities.
Through Sunday afternoon, expect average total rainfall amounts of 1-
3" with isolated amounts up to 4-5". These amounts, coupled with
multiple rounds of storms expected through tonight, will
exacerbate the flood threat. This will be especially true in flood
prone areas and in places that have already received heavy
rainfall. The Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM this
evening, but may need to be extended through the evening hours for
portions of eastern Central Texas.
All rain should come to an end by Monday morning, leaving the rest
of the short term period dry. Winds will be light through the
night, and with clearing skies and primed soils, there is
potential for mist/patchy fog and associated visibility
restrictions across much of the area through the morning hours on
Monday. Meanwhile, the base of an eastward- moving longwave
trough will begin to move overtop the region over Monday, but any
associated rain chances should stay to our south where the better
moisture resides. Have left unmentionable 10% PoPs in our
southernmost zones through Monday afternoon to account for the low
possibility of showers developing a bit further north.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 351 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/
/Monday Onward/
A lull in the active weather will occur on Monday as the
multitude of upper level systems responsible for this weekend's
thunderstorms shift to the east, and a weak ridge develops
overhead. Storm chances will return on Tuesday, however, as a
shortwave rounds the northern flank of the ridge. This will help
ignite thunderstorms along the dryline, which will be positioned
across the Big Country by Tuesday afternoon. These storms should
remain confined to the western half of the region, keeping the
severe weather potential largely west of the I-35 corridor. A
secondary batch of convection may also occur across the southeast
zones where an active seabreeze may infiltrate Tuesday afternoon.
The southeast storms will likely remain sub-severe, though a few
may produce gusty winds and heavy rain.
By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave will be dropping southeast
through the Rockies, weakening the ridge and generating another
round of dryline convection across the Big Country mid to late
afternoon. A warm and unstable environment along with 35+ knots
of effective shear will support more severe thunderstorm potential
as convection spreads east through the region Wednesday evening.
Storms will dissipate Wednesday night as instability wanes and a
capping inversion strengthens at the 850-700mb level.
A cold front will then approach on Thursday as the shortwave
trough traverses the Plains, providing another focus for showers
and storms along with the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread convection will be the result Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night, with activity pushing south of the region
along with the front on Friday.
A short reprieve in rain chances will occur Friday into Friday
evening before a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet
generates another round of precipitation Friday night into next
Saturday. All of the forecast area should be in the cool sector
following the frontal passage, keeping any thunderstorms elevated
in nature and resulting from isentropic ascent. This should limit
the severe potential, but a strong storm or two would be capable
of producing hail. After a seasonably cool and damp (next)
weekend, a strengthening ridge aloft should lead to a warm-up and
a rain-free start to the following week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
Scattered showers and storms have popped up across D10 over the
last couple hours and will continue to do so ahead of the main
line of storms. The line will directly impact D10 between 9-13Z,
and ACT 12-14Z. During this time, expect occasionally gusty
westerly winds and the potential for hail and spin-up tornadoes,
mainly closer to D10. Lingering precipitation is expected behind
the line until the mid-morning, before a lull in precipitation is
expected. Ceilings should lift somewhat, allowing low VFR to
return to all TAF sites mid-late afternoon. Redevelopment is
possible near and east of the airports mid afternoon and will move
east by the evening. Skies will more efficiently clear out
tonight with VFR prevailing.
There is the potential for lowered visibilities due to mist over
Monday morning, but have only included this potential at KDFW as
it is at the end of the period.
Prater
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 85 67 84 69 / 5 5 5 20 10
Waco 66 84 64 83 69 / 10 5 5 20 10
Paris 61 81 61 81 66 / 40 5 5 20 10
Denton 60 83 64 83 67 / 0 5 0 10 10
McKinney 63 83 64 83 68 / 5 5 0 20 10
Dallas 65 85 65 85 69 / 5 5 5 20 10
Terrell 64 83 65 82 68 / 30 5 5 20 10
Corsicana 67 85 67 84 70 / 40 5 5 30 10
Temple 66 85 66 84 69 / 10 5 5 20 10
Mineral Wells 59 86 64 86 67 / 0 5 0 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-
131>135-144>146-159.
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for
TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20240428T0619.txt
