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686
FXUS64 KFWD 301109
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
609 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and a few storms will continue through the
overnight mainly south of I-20.
- Scattered showers and a few storms will increase in coverage
through the day Thursday into Thursday night. Widespread
rainfall is expected across all of North and Central Texas on
Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected.
- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue mainly across
our far eastern counties at this hour. This activity will likely
continue to move east with a brief lull in activity expected
through the remainder of the night. Any additional activity that
should develop will likely be south of I-20.
Water vapor and satellite imagery show extensive cloud cover atop
the post frontal airmass while moisture continues to stream in
from the west. At the surface, our frontal boundary is well into
South Texas at this hour and a cooler north wind prevails across
North Texas. The mid levels feature low amplitude troughing over
the Central and Southern Plains with a nearly zonal westerly flow
aloft and 100 kt subtropical upper jet extending from the Desert
Southwest into the mid Mississippi Valley. A stronger compact
shortwave is approaching northern Baja California and will be
responsible for widespread rainfall across the region on Friday.
Until then, the forecast will continue to feature intermittent
showers and thunderstorms aided by weak ascent from smaller
perturbations in the mid level flow. As is common in these types
of setups, timing these individual disturbances can be a challenge
and we'll rely on the overall consensus of the model guidance to
help pick out when stronger ascent appears to be approaching
upstream. For the rest of the overnight hours, any additional
development will likely be tied to weak warm advection and
additional rain chances are around 20%.
Headed into early Thursday morning, height falls will overspread
the Southern Plains tied to a shortwave trough moving out of the
Intermountain West and becoming sheared apart in the Central
Plains. As it does, flow above the surface will veer a bit in
response and broad area of low/mid level warm moist advection will
develop prior to sunrise across the Big Country and into North
Texas. Forecast 850-700 mb theta-e advection is being used as a
proxy for the area of best ascent and this should initially be
across our western counties during the early morning hours, then
overspread the I-35 corridor by mid/late morning. This should
result in widespread showers and few thunderstorms developing and
traversing the area through the day. We'll have relatively high
PoPs in the 40-60% range to account for this activity then we
should see a gradual decrease in coverage as the better forcing
moves to the east. Unlike Wednesday, MUCAPE values will be
considerably lower and the threat for large hail will also be
lower. That being said, mid level lapse rates will still be
sufficiently steep for a few instances of hail in the stronger
cores.
With a lull in activity expected Thursday afternoon/evening into
the overnight hours, our upstream shortwave over Baja will begin
to move northeast and will become the primary source of large
scale forcing for ascent late Thursday night into Friday.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in
coverage across Central Texas and gradually spread north into
North Texas during the day Friday. Friday looks to be an all day
rain event for much of the region, although there will likely be a
fairly sharp gradient in QPF from south to north with the I-20
corridor being an approximate dividing line from heavier rainfall
to the south and lighter amounts to the north. Rainfall amounts
should total 1 to 3 inches in areas south of I-20, while areas to
the north and closer to the Red River should pick up between 1/2
and 1 inch of rain. Higher end amounts across our far southern
counties should top out around 4 inches. Convective potential
looks considerably lower during this time so this will be
primarily a rain event during the day on Friday, but given the
amount of forcing, we can't rule out some cores capable of
producing lightning through the day. All of this activity will
come to an end from west to east Friday evening.
Given the extensive cloud cover, north winds, and widespread
rainfall, temperatures will be well below normal with highs in the
mid/upper 60s on Thursday and in the upper 50s and lower 60s on
Friday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Precipitation should be tapering off across the region from west
to east late Friday night. A fantastic weekend is expected with
sunny skies, high temperatures in the 70s and overnight lows in
the upper 40s and lower 50s. Southerly flow will return early next
week as our surface high moves off to the east and temperatures
will rebound accordingly into the low/mid 80s. Low storm chances
will return late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving
system in the Plains and another late week front will bring temps
back down into the 70s by Thursday. Overall the extended forecast
looks quite nice.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
No major changes to the 12Z TAF package other than to remove TS
from the prevailing precip type later this morning. Large scale
lift is spreading into the region based on recent radar/satellite
trends and we should see precip expand in coverage through the
morning. Initial activity will likely have lightning in it but
MUCAPE will wane through the late morning and early afternoon with
showers generally prevailing (or at least that's the thinking)
into early afternoon. Over the last hour, low clouds have
scattered a bit, but think this is temporary. We'll start off with
SCT022 but carry a TEMPO for BKN conditions through 14Z, then low
clouds should fill back in. Precip should overspread parts of
North Texas by 14-15Z with a TEMPO for -SHRA from 17-21Z which
represents the best timing for impacts to the D10 airspace. This
initial wave of precip should move east this evening with a lull
in activity and an improvement in cigs. MVFR cigs will return
later tonight with the larger precip shield overspreading the
region early Friday morning.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 55 58 50 / 50 50 70 30
Waco 69 55 59 50 / 60 80 90 30
Paris 66 53 62 48 / 40 20 50 30
Denton 66 52 59 47 / 50 50 70 30
McKinney 66 54 59 49 / 50 40 60 30
Dallas 68 55 58 51 / 50 50 70 30
Terrell 67 54 58 49 / 50 50 70 40
Corsicana 71 56 58 51 / 60 70 90 40
Temple 72 57 58 50 / 60 90 100 30
Mineral Wells 66 51 56 46 / 60 60 80 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260430T1109.txt
793
FXUS64 KFWD 300545
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and a few storms will continue through the
overnight mainly south of I-20.
- Scattered showers and a few storms will increase in coverage
through the day Thursday into Thursday night. Widespread
rainfall is expected across all of North and Central Texas on
Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected.
- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue mainly across
our far eastern counties at this hour. This activity will likely
continue to move east with a brief lull in activity expected
through the remainder of the night. Any additional activity that
should develop will likely be south of I-20.
Water vapor and satellite imagery show extensive cloud cover atop
the post frontal airmass while moisture continues to stream in
from the west. At the surface, our frontal boundary is well into
South Texas at this hour and a cooler north wind prevails across
North Texas. The mid levels feature low amplitude troughing over
the Central and Southern Plains with a nearly zonal westerly flow
aloft and 100 kt subtropical upper jet extending from the Desert
Southwest into the mid Mississippi Valley. A stronger compact
shortwave is approaching northern Baja California and will be
responsible for widespread rainfall across the region on Friday.
Until then, the forecast will continue to feature intermittent
showers and thunderstorms aided by weak ascent from smaller
perturbations in the mid level flow. As is common in these types
of setups, timing these individual disturbances can be a challenge
and we'll rely on the overall consensus of the model guidance to
help pick out when stronger ascent appears to be approaching
upstream. For the rest of the overnight hours, any additional
development will likely be tied to weak warm advection and
additional rain chances are around 20%.
Headed into early Thursday morning, height falls will overspread
the Southern Plains tied to a shortwave trough moving out of the
Intermountain West and becoming sheared apart in the Central
Plains. As it does, flow above the surface will veer a bit in
response and broad area of low/mid level warm moist advection will
develop prior to sunrise across the Big Country and into North
Texas. Forecast 850-700 mb theta-e advection is being used as a
proxy for the area of best ascent and this should initially be
across our western counties during the early morning hours, then
overspread the I-35 corridor by mid/late morning. This should
result in widespread showers and few thunderstorms developing and
traversing the area through the day. We'll have relatively high
PoPs in the 40-60% range to account for this activity then we
should see a gradual decrease in coverage as the better forcing
moves to the east. Unlike Wednesday, MUCAPE values will be
considerably lower and the threat for large hail will also be
lower. That being said, mid level lapse rates will still be
sufficiently steep for a few instances of hail in the stronger
cores.
With a lull in activity expected Thursday afternoon/evening into
the overnight hours, our upstream shortwave over Baja will begin
to move northeast and will become the primary source of large
scale forcing for ascent late Thursday night into Friday.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in
coverage across Central Texas and gradually spread north into
North Texas during the day Friday. Friday looks to be an all day
rain event for much of the region, although there will likely be a
fairly sharp gradient in QPF from south to north with the I-20
corridor being an approximate dividing line from heavier rainfall
to the south and lighter amounts to the north. Rainfall amounts
should total 1 to 3 inches in areas south of I-20, while areas to
the north and closer to the Red River should pick up between 1/2
and 1 inch of rain. Higher end amounts across our far southern
counties should top out around 4 inches. Convective potential
looks considerably lower during this time so this will be
primarily a rain event during the day on Friday, but given the
amount of forcing, we can't rule out some cores capable of
producing lightning through the day. All of this activity will
come to an end from west to east Friday evening.
Given the extensive cloud cover, north winds, and widespread
rainfall, temperatures will be well below normal with highs in the
mid/upper 60s on Thursday and in the upper 50s and lower 60s on
Friday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Precipitation should be tapering off across the region from west
to east late Friday night. A fantastic weekend is expected with
sunny skies, high temperatures in the 70s and overnight lows in
the upper 40s and lower 50s. Southerly flow will return early next
week as our surface high moves off to the east and temperatures
will rebound accordingly into the low/mid 80s. Low storm chances
will return late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving
system in the Plains and another late week front will bring temps
back down into the 70s by Thursday. Overall the extended forecast
looks quite nice.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Poor flying conditions are expected through the period with
widespread MVFR cigs prevailing across the region and this will
continue through Thursday night with intermittent IFR cigs/vis in
areas of precipitation. We'll show VCSH by 13Z as an initial wave
of forcing approaches but there should be enough elevated
instability to support a few lightning strikes as the best chances
for precipitation arrive late morning into early afternoon. We'll
carry a TEMPO for -TSRA from 16-20Z with some trailing -RA through
the evening hours. We should see a lull in precipitation through
much of the overnight Thursday with widespread rain expected by
early Friday morning. This is reflected in the extended portion of
the DFW TAF. Intermittent IFR vis can be expected in areas of
heavier precip and at Waco where cigs may drop below 1000 feet
this morning and again overnight Thursday night.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 66 55 58 / 20 50 50 70
Waco 62 69 55 59 / 20 60 80 90
Paris 57 66 53 62 / 30 40 40 50
Denton 57 66 52 59 / 20 50 50 70
McKinney 59 66 54 59 / 20 50 50 60
Dallas 62 68 55 58 / 30 50 60 70
Terrell 60 67 54 58 / 40 50 60 70
Corsicana 62 71 56 58 / 40 60 70 90
Temple 60 72 57 58 / 20 60 90 100
Mineral Wells 56 66 51 56 / 10 60 60 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260430T0545.txt
861
FXUS64 KFWD 300023
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
723 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers and storms will continue through the evening. A
few storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds.
- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region
on Thursday and especially Friday with rainfall amounts of 1 to
3 inches expected. Some flooding will be possible during this
time.
- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The extended portion of the forecast remains fairly unchanged
with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
The main threat will be the potential for heavy rain and at least
some isolated flash flooding. Latest guidance continues to show
additional rainfall totals between 1-3 inches with isolated
higher amounts closer to 4 inches (~10% chance over portions of
Central TX). Expect forecast details to continue to be adjusted as
high-resolution guidance better capture the mesoscale features.
Sanchez
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The weather pattern will remain fairly active in the short-term
period as scattered elevated showers and storms continue to move
across portions of North and Central Texas. Latest surface
analysis shows yesterday's cold front currently near our southern
Central Texas counties with 850-700mb frontogenesis near the I-20
corridor in North Texas. Additional lift associated with a mid-
level passing wave will continue to support scattered showers and
storms through the evening. Sufficient elevated instability will
result in a few strong to severe storms with large hail (~1.5-2
inches) and isolated damaging winds possible. While our eastern
and southern counties near the surface boundary will have the best
potential to see any severe weather this afternoon/evening,
isolated hail up to 1-1.5 inches will still be possible near and
along the I-20 corridor. Pockets of heavy rain may also occur with
this activity resulting in at least some minor flooding.
Rain/storm chances will diminish this evening from north to south
as the main source of ascent moves out of the area, but widespread
clouds will remain across the region through tomorrow.
The next upper level disturbance will arrive during the day
tomorrow, bringing more showers and embedded storms. The current
scenario shows showers developing across West Texas and the Hill
Country region early Thursday morning, spreading northward into
our CWA. The highest coverage of rain during the morning hours
will be across Central Texas, shifting into North Texas during
the afternoon and evening. Some instances of flash flooding may
occur if training occurs over any particular area across the
region, especially over those locations that have seen recent
rainfall. More widespread precipitation is expected Thursday night
into Friday with more details below.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
With strong forcing for ascent overspreading all of North and
Central Texas late Thursday night, convection (mainly showers)
will increase in intensity near the remnant frontal boundary which
will still be across our southern counties. This activity will
slowly spread north through the night into early Friday morning as
the strongest height falls move into North Texas. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain is expected across much of the region
through the day Friday with periodic showers and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be near and south of
I-20 where 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected. Lighter but non-
trivial amounts are expected north of I-20 and should total 1 to
1.5 inches through Friday evening. While there is some potential
for flooding of low lying areas, the overall rain rates and speed
of the entire system should keep the threat of flash flooding
isolated to areas where any training convection sets up. All of
this activity will move to the east of the area late Friday night
into Saturday morning as the main upper trough pulls away. With
widespread rain and cloud cover, high temperatures will likely
remain in the upper 50s making for a cold first day of May.
A nice weekend is expected in the wake of all the rain on Friday.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s on Saturday and into the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
Pleasant weather will continue into the early part of next week
with additional storm chances likely by the latter part of next
week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
MVFR ceilings will continue this evening and tonight, with a
deterioration of ceilings early morning Thursday. Low-end MVFR
will prevail through the day for D10 with a TEMPO included for IFR
cigs from 13-17Z. Confidence is low on IFR cigs extending beyond
this time period, with higher confidence in MVFR being the
predominant flight category. Have maintained VCSH for scattered
off and on precip, with periods of light to moderate RA possible
mainly 17-22Z, but showers will continue in the region through the
TAF period. For ACT, IFR/LIFR probs are higher through much of
the day before an improvement to low-end MVFR. NE/E winds are
expected around 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 61 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
Waco 70 63 69 55 / 40 30 60 80
Paris 70 57 66 52 / 60 20 30 40
Denton 67 57 66 52 / 30 20 60 60
McKinney 68 58 66 53 / 40 20 50 60
Dallas 70 62 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
Terrell 69 60 67 53 / 60 40 50 70
Corsicana 71 63 70 56 / 60 40 60 80
Temple 76 63 72 56 / 50 30 50 90
Mineral Wells 67 56 66 51 / 30 20 60 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Dunn
AVIATION...Gordon
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260430T0023.txt
931
FXUS64 KFWD 291922
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
222 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New LONG TERM UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
across all of North and Central Texas through the evening. A
few storms could be strong to severe with a hail threat.
- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region
on Thursday and especially Friday with rainfall amounts of 1 to
3 inches expected. Some flooding will be possible during this
time.
- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.
&&
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The weather pattern will remain fairly active in the short-term
period as scattered elevated showers and storms continue to move
across portions of North and Central Texas. Latest surface
analysis shows yesterday's cold front currently near our southern
Central Texas counties with 850-700mb frontogenesis near the I-20
corridor in North Texas. Additional lift associated with a mid-
level passing wave will continue to support scattered showers and
storms through the evening. Sufficient elevated instability will
result in a few strong to severe storms with large hail (~1.5-2
inches) and isolated damaging winds possible. While our eastern
and southern counties near the surface boundary will have the best
potential to see any severe weather this afternoon/evening,
isolated hail up to 1-1.5 inches will still be possible near and
along the I-20 corridor. Pockets of heavy rain may also occur with
this activity resulting in at least some minor flooding.
Rain/storm chances will diminish this evening from north to south
as the main source of ascent moves out of the area, but widespread
clouds will remain across the region through tomorrow.
The next upper level disturbance will arrive during the day
tomorrow, bringing more showers and embedded storms. The current
scenario shows showers developing across West Texas and the Hill
Country region early Thursday morning, spreading northward into
our CWA. The highest coverage of rain during the morning hours
will be across Central Texas, shifting into North Texas during
the afternoon and evening. Some instances of flash flooding may
occur if training occurs over any particular area across the
region, especially over those locations that have seen recent
rainfall. More widespread precipitation is expected Thursday night
into Friday with more details below.
Sanchez
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The extended portion of the forecast remains fairly unchanged
with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
The main threat will be the potential for heavy rain and at least
some isolated flash flooding. Latest guidance continues to show
additional rainfall totals between 1-3 inches with isolated
higher amounts closer to 4 inches (~10% chance over portions of
Central TX). Expect forecast details to continue to be adjusted as
high-resolution guidance better capture the mesoscale features.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
With strong forcing for ascent overspreading all of North and
Central Texas late Thursday night, convection (mainly showers)
will increase in intensity near the remnant frontal boundary which
will still be across our southern counties. This activity will
slowly spread north through the night into early Friday morning as
the strongest height falls move into North Texas. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain is expected across much of the region
through the day Friday with periodic showers and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be near and south of
I-20 where 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected. Lighter but non-
trivial amounts are expected north of I-20 and should total 1 to
1.5 inches through Friday evening. While there is some potential
for flooding of low lying areas, the overall rain rates and speed
of the entire system should keep the threat of flash flooding
isolated to areas where any training convection sets up. All of
this activity will move to the east of the area late Friday night
into Saturday morning as the main upper trough pulls away. With
widespread rain and cloud cover, high temperatures will likely
remain in the upper 50s making for a cold first day of May.
A nice weekend is expected in the wake of all the rain on Friday.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s on Saturday and into the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
Pleasant weather will continue into the early part of next week
with additional storm chances likely by the latter part of next
week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
We continue to highlight the threat for a few storms to impact
some of the North Texas sites through the afternoon. In addition
to occasional lightning, there could be small hail with some of
this activity. The thunderstorm threat will shift south of
Metroplex sites after 00Z, but some lingering rain may persist
into the evening.
With plenty of low-level moisture in place, widespread MVFR
ceilings will return tonight, near or just after midnight.
Ceilings will continue to deteriorate to IFR by early Thursday
morning as light rain spread across the region. Poor flying
conditions will persist much of the day Thursday as waves of
precipitation moves overhead in addition to low ceilings/vsby.
Better thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday
morning. Otherwise, northerly-easterly winds will persist through
the period.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested across East Texas and
generally along/south of I-20/30. Even if activation is not
locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 61 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
Waco 70 63 69 55 / 40 30 60 80
Paris 70 57 66 52 / 60 20 30 40
Denton 67 57 66 52 / 30 20 60 60
McKinney 68 58 66 53 / 40 20 50 60
Dallas 70 62 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
Terrell 69 60 67 53 / 60 40 50 70
Corsicana 71 63 70 56 / 60 40 60 80
Temple 76 63 72 56 / 50 30 50 90
Mineral Wells 67 56 66 51 / 30 20 60 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260429T1922.txt
540
FXUS64 KFWD 291909
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
209 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
across all of North and Central Texas through the evening. A
few storms could be strong to severe with a hail threat.
- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region
on Thursday and especially Friday with rainfall amounts of 1 to
3 inches expected. Some flooding will be possible during this
time.
- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
The weather pattern will remain fairly active in the short-term
period as scattered elevated showers and storms continue to move
across portions of North and Central Texas. Latest surface
analysis shows yesterday's cold front currently near our southern
Central Texas counties with 850-700mb frontogenesis near the I-20
corridor in North Texas. Additional lift associated with a mid-
level passing wave will continue to support scattered showers and
storms through the evening. Sufficient elevated instability will
result in a few strong to severe storms with large hail (~1.5-2
inches) and isolated damaging winds possible. While our eastern
and southern counties near the surface boundary will have the best
potential to see any severe weather this afternoon/evening,
isolated hail up to 1-1.5 inches will still be possible near and
along the I-20 corridor. Pockets of heavy rain may also occur with
this activity resulting in at least some minor flooding.
Rain/storm chances will diminish this evening from north to south
as the main source of ascent moves out of the area, but widespread
clouds will remain across the region through tomorrow.
The next upper level disturbance will arrive during the day
tomorrow, bringing more showers and embedded storms. The current
scenario shows showers developing across West Texas and the Hill
Country region early Thursday morning, spreading northward into
our CWA. The highest coverage of rain during the morning hours
will be across Central Texas, shifting into North Texas during
the afternoon and evening. Some instances of flash flooding may
occur if training occurs over any particular area across the
region, especially over those locations that have seen recent
rainfall. More widespread precipitation is expected Thursday night
into Friday with more details below.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
With strong forcing for ascent overspreading all of North and
Central Texas late Thursday night, convection (mainly showers)
will increase in intensity near the remnant frontal boundary which
will still be across our southern counties. This activity will
slowly spread north through the night into early Friday morning as
the strongest height falls move into North Texas. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain is expected across much of the region
through the day Friday with periodic showers and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be near and south of
I-20 where 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected. Lighter but non-
trivial amounts are expected north of I-20 and should total 1 to
1.5 inches through Friday evening. While there is some potential
for flooding of low lying areas, the overall rain rates and speed
of the entire system should keep the threat of flash flooding
isolated to areas where any training convection sets up. All of
this activity will move to the east of the area late Friday night
into Saturday morning as the main upper trough pulls away. With
widespread rain and cloud cover, high temperatures will likely
remain in the upper 50s making for a cold first day of May.
A nice weekend is expected in the wake of all the rain on Friday.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s on Saturday and into the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
Pleasant weather will continue into the early part of next week
with additional storm chances likely by the latter part of next
week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
We continue to highlight the threat for a few storms to impact
some of the North Texas sites through the afternoon. In addition
to occasional lightning, there could be small hail with some of
this activity. The thunderstorm threat will shift south of
Metroplex sites after 00Z, but some lingering rain may persist
into the evening.
With plenty of low-level moisture in place, widespread MVFR
ceilings will return tonight, near or just after midnight.
Ceilings will continue to deteriorate to IFR by early Thursday
morning as light rain spread across the region. Poor flying
conditions will persist much of the day Thursday as waves of
precipitation moves overhead in addition to low ceilings/vsby.
Better thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday
morning. Otherwise, northerly-easterly winds will persist through
the period.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested across East Texas and
generally along/south of I-20/30. Even if activation is not
locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 61 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
Waco 70 63 69 55 / 40 30 60 80
Paris 70 57 66 52 / 60 20 30 40
Denton 67 57 66 52 / 30 20 60 60
McKinney 68 58 66 53 / 40 20 50 60
Dallas 70 62 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
Terrell 69 60 67 53 / 60 40 50 70
Corsicana 71 63 70 56 / 60 40 60 80
Temple 76 63 72 56 / 50 30 50 90
Mineral Wells 67 56 66 51 / 30 20 60 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Sanchez
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260429T1909.txt
835
FXUS64 KFWD 291811
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
111 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
across all of North and Central Texas today. A few storms could
be strong to severe with a hail threat.
- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region
on Thursday and especially Friday with rainfall amounts of 1 to
3 inches expected. Some flooding will be possible during this
time.
- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Quick update to raise PoPs a bit through the early afternoon hours
as water vapor and IR satellite imagery show cooling temperatures
indicative of at least some weak forcing for ascent spreading into
the region. With a 925-850 mb theta-e axis draped right along the
I-20 corridor and mid level lapse rates around 8 C/km (MUCAPE
around 1500 J/kg), it is appearing more likely that we'll see
some scattered elevated thunderstorms develop over the next
several hours. Given the amount of instability we have to work
with, a few of these could be strong or marginally severe with a
hail threat. Have updated PoPs accordingly for areas along and
south of I-20. No other changes at this time.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
A couple of severe storms continue late this evening across our
far southern counties but these will weaken over the next couple
of hours with increasing inhibition. Our frontal boundary is
currently draped along the I-20 corridor and will continue to push
south through the overnight hours. There's still plenty of MUCAPE
available for the ongoing convection to sustain itself for another
few hours, but a gradual decrease in intensity is expected. The
front should continue to push into Central TX overnight and will
be a focus for renewed shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
into the early morning hours mainly south of I-20. We'll have PoPs
around 20% for any redevelopment of overnight activity in this
area.
With the frontal boundary draped to our south on Wednesday and
weak perturbations traversing the base of low amplitude troughing
through the Southern Plains, we'll maintain persistent forcing for
ascent through the day. Combined with PW values >1.8" and
sustained low level warm advection atop the shallow frontal layer,
we'll likely maintain some scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms through the day Wednesday mainly south of I-20.
While MUCAPE will be considerably lower during the day, we can't
rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with hail being the
primary threat. Hail sizes would be considerably smaller that what
we saw on Tuesday. Rain chances will generally be 40-60% across
our southern counties and 10-20% north of I-20. Much cooler air
will be in place behind the front with highs expected to remain in
the 60s all day.
A period of active weather will continue into Thursday as a
stronger shortwave trough spreads out of northwest Mexico and into
far West Texas late in the day. Persistent isentropic ascent atop
our cooler near surface layer combined with ample deep layer
moisture will result in periodic showers and a few storms through
the day Thursday. While PoPs will be relatively high areawide
(50-60%), most areas will pick up 1/2" of rain or less on
Thursday. The heavier rainfall is expected late Thursday night
into Friday and is discussed below.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
With strong forcing for ascent overspreading all of North and
Central Texas late Thursday night, convection (mainly showers)
will increase in intensity near the remnant frontal boundary which
will still be across our southern counties. This activity will
slowly spread north through the night into early Friday morning as
the strongest height falls move into North Texas. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain is expected across much of the region
through the day Friday with periodic showers and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be near and south of
I-20 where 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected. Lighter but non-
trivial amounts are expected north of I-20 and should total 1 to
1.5 inches through Friday evening. While there is some potential
for flooding of low lying areas, the overall rain rates and speed
of the entire system should keep the threat of flash flooding
isolated to areas where any training convection sets up. All of
this activity will move to the east of the area late Friday night
into Saturday morning as the main upper trough pulls away. With
widespread rain and cloud cover, high temperatures will likely
remain in the upper 50s making for a cold first day of May.
A nice weekend is expected in the wake of all the rain on Friday.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s on Saturday and into the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
Pleasant weather will continue into the early part of next week
with additional storm chances likely by the latter part of next
week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
We continue to highlight the threat for a few storms to impact
some of the North Texas sites through the afternoon. In addition
to occasional lightning, there could be small hail with some of
this activity. The thunderstorm threat will shift south of
Metroplex sites after 00Z, but some lingering rain may persist
into the evening.
With plenty of low-level moisture in place, widespread MVFR
ceilings will return tonight, near or just after midnight.
Ceilings will continue to deteriorate to IFR by early Thursday
morning as light rain spread across the region. Poor flying
conditions will persist much of the day Thursday as waves of
precipitation moves overhead in addition to low ceilings/vsby.
Better thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday
morning. Otherwise, northerly-easterly winds will persist through
the period.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested across East Texas and
generally along/south of I-20/30. Even if activation is not
locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 61 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
Waco 70 63 69 55 / 40 30 60 80
Paris 70 57 66 52 / 60 20 30 40
Denton 67 57 66 52 / 30 20 60 60
McKinney 68 58 66 53 / 40 20 50 60
Dallas 70 62 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
Terrell 69 60 67 53 / 60 40 50 70
Corsicana 71 63 70 56 / 60 40 60 80
Temple 76 63 72 56 / 50 30 50 90
Mineral Wells 67 56 66 51 / 30 20 60 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Sanchez
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260429T1811.txt
