461 
ACUS11 KWNS 221949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221949 
COZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Areas affected...the Front Range and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221949Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is forecast after about 21Z,
with storms moving east/southeast off the higher terrain. Localized
marginal hail or strong gusts may occur.

DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues this afternoon in a
post-frontal regime with areas of heating. North to northeast
surface winds have brought mid to upper 50s F dewpoints into the
area, resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Visible satellite imagery
shows CU fields developing, though partially obscured by mid and
high level clouds. These clouds are associated with a minor
disturbance rounding the upper ridge, suggesting some degree of
ascent aloft.

As convection over the higher terrain grows later this afternoon,
modest northwest flow aloft and peak heating should allow for a few
cells to persist into the plains. Temperatures aloft are not
particularly cool, nor is shear very strong. As such, marginal hail
is possible. An eventual aggregation of storms/outflows may develop
closer to 00Z, with perhaps locally strong to severe gusts. Overall
coverage and intensity of severe is not expected to necessitate a
watch.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38650578 39630559 40350524 40360487 40140444 39660428
            39190419 38720433 38350460 38210508 38250548 38650578 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250822T1949.txt



957 
ACUS11 KWNS 221931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221931 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221931Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A strong to severe storm or two may emerge later this
afternoon across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This threat is
expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection percolating along a weak cold front across
northeast NE over the past 1-2 hours has recently shown signs of
slow intensification per cooling cloud-top temperatures, increased
lightning counts, and increasing vertically integrated ice values.
This intensification is most likely attributable to gradual
destabilization across eastern NE/western IA where temperatures are
climbing into in the low/mid 80s. A modified 18z OAX sounding
suggests that this air mass is supporting MLCAPE values around 1000
J/kg MLCAPE, and 25-30 knot flow is noted between 5-7 km AGL. This
parameter space is generally supportive of at least loosely
organized convection that may pose a severe hail/wind risk through
the afternoon. However, poor lapse-rates between 1-5 km are also
noted, which given the weak forcing for ascent, may modulate storm
intensity and limit convective coverage. Latest CAM guidance also
hints that convection may struggle to maintain intensity, which
further limits confidence in the overall severe threat. Nonetheless,
an isolated severe hail/wind risk may materialize through late
afternoon as daytime heating continues to destabilize the immediate
downstream environment.

..Moore/Gleason.. 08/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41009758 41149793 41319821 41629853 41879869 42069868
            42199846 42289814 42699695 42939645 43059612 43009576
            42609515 42359489 42039487 41739498 41499534 41269586
            41079635 41009698 41009758 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250822T1931.txt



574 
ACUS11 KWNS 221652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221652 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-221845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Areas affected...Far eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and
the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221652Z - 221845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters developing across northern Wisconsin
may pose a localized severe hail/wind risk through the afternoon as
they spread east into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Watch
issuance is currently not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along a surface cold front
across far eastern MN and northwest WI have shown signs of gradual
intensification per MRMS and GOES IR imagery. While stronger
mid/upper-level flow will likely remain displaced to the
north/northwest, recent VWP observations from KDLH sampled 0-6 km
BWD values on the order of 25-30 knots. This may promote some degree
of organization of embedded cells within the larger cluster through
early afternoon and cold pool consolidation/organization by mid/late
afternoon. Muted daytime heating of a seasonably moist air mass in
place downstream ahead of the front should promote a modest increase
in MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by mid-afternoon, which may also
bolster convective intensity to some degree. 

In general, the expectation is that this activity will pose a threat
for isolated hail and perhaps isolated to scattered damaging/severe
gusts. There is some potential that a more widespread damaging wind
threat could emerge if convective intensity/organization is more
substantial than currently anticipated as hinted by a few morning
CAM solutions. This scenario could warrant a targeted watch issuance
later this afternoon, but based on current observations (ongoing
cloud cover, delayed surface heating, etc...), this potential seems
low.

..Moore/Gleason.. 08/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   46928988 47008938 46948915 46738878 46368856 45978854
            45638862 45478902 45369271 45519319 45709343 46039340
            46339293 46509196 46669115 46928988 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250822T1652.txt