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846
ACUS11 KWNS 030955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030955
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern MS into Middle TN
Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...
Valid 030955Z - 031130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.
SUMMARY...The tornado risk may persist across portions of northern
Mississippi into Middle Tennessee another few hours. A local watch
extension may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Occasionally intense cells exhibiting moderate rotation
continue along the stalled surface boundary from northern MS into
Middle TN early this morning. A supercell southwest of the Nashville
area has recently shown increasing rotation over the past 20
minutes. Wind profile data from GWX and HUN continue to show
supercell wind profiles across the warm sector, while a narrow
corridor of modest MLCAPE extends northeast across the MCD area.
Convection may continue to be sustained in the warm advection regime
along the surface boundary and within a favorably sheared
environment such that tornado/severe potential could persist a few
more hours. With Tornado Watch 104 set to expire at 11z, a local
watch extension may be needed.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35688586 35098720 34968766 34558853 34568882 34638910
34898920 35338855 36428625 36568555 36478504 36208510
35688586
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0955.txt
732
ACUS11 KWNS 030854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030854
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-031030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Areas affected...portions of western PA into WV
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105...
Valid 030854Z - 031030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe potential will wane with time and eastward extent.
Locally strong gusts may continue in the short term from western
Pennsylvania into central West Virginia.
DISCUSSION...A line of convection from western PA into western WV
will continue to progress east over the next few hours. Much of this
activity is outpacing weak instability and moving toward strong
inhibition. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear remains over the
region, which may maintain some organized linear convection in the
short term. The main risk across the remainder of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 105 will be locally strong gusts. A downstream
watch is not expected.
..Leitman.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...
LAT...LON 41387881 40527874 38728024 37738198 37968255 38278277
38778254 39808111 41337949 41387881
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0854.txt
042
ACUS11 KWNS 030543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030543
TNZ000-MSZ000-030715-
Mesoscale Discussion 0372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Areas affected...far north-central MS into portions of Middle TN
Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...
Valid 030543Z - 030715Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of strong tornado potential may persist another
1-2 hours across north-central Mississippi into portions of western
and Middle Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...Two intense supercells with confirmed tornado debris
signatures are ongoing across portions of the MCD area. This
activity is occurring within an intense low-level jet near 60 kt,
aiding in enhanced 0-1 km SRH near 300 m2/s2 per region VWP data.
This activity is also within the corridor of max effective STP (near
2-4). The storms have produced rotational velocity signatures
greater than 50-60 kt over the past 30 minutes. These supercells
within the current environment, coupled with radar trends, suggest a
strong tornado risk will persist downstream for the next 1-2 hours.
..Leitman.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...
LAT...LON 34829009 35828827 36158755 35958740 35378774 34478943
34479008 34599024 34829009
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0543.txt
621
ACUS11 KWNS 030427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030426
TXZ000-030630-
Mesoscale Discussion 0371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Pecos Valley and Edwards Plateau into
portions of the Texas South Plains and Northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 030426Z - 030630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity posing
increasing potential for severe hail overnight may begin to increase
as early as 1-3 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant short wave perturbation
digging through the Southwest, large-scale ascent, rooted within
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, appears to be underway. The
environment remains relatively dry, but high based convection
appears to be developing to the northwest and north of the San
Angelo area. Although inhibition remains sizable, based on forecast
soundings, models suggest that the lift, coupled with increasing
elevated moisture return, may begin to contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development by 06-08Z, if not earlier. Given steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong shear in the convective layer, some
of this may begin to pose increasing potential for severe hail
overnight.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30670152 32490157 32759868 31809831 30240011 29580064
30670152
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0427.txt
060
ACUS11 KWNS 030405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030405
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-030600-
Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...parts of wrn into middle TN...cntrl and ern
KY...srn OH...nwrn W VA...swrn PA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 030405Z - 030600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with a vigorous, organized
convective system spreading toward the Allegheny Plateau, and into
central Kentucky and middle Tennessee, may be slow to diminish
overnight. One or two additional severe weather watches might be
needed.
DISCUSSION...To the northeast of the east central Kentucky
Bluegrass, boundary-layer instability remains rather limited, and is
not expected to improve much overnight. However, the most intense
south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric jet core (including
60-80+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer) is in the process of shifting
northeast of the Mid South, toward the upper Ohio Valley.
Although a leading MCV has recently become more ill-defined across
western Ohio, several others continue to evolve within the the
convective system trailing southwestward into the Mid South. The
severe weather potential is probably past peak, but the risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of brief
tornadoes may be slow to diminish overnight.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...
MEG...
LAT...LON 39248346 40438238 40948086 40537936 38088270 36538553
35138902 39248346
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0405.txt
829
ACUS11 KWNS 030254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030253
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-030500-
Mesoscale Discussion 0369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...parts of wrn and middle TN...wrn and central
KY...adjacent sern IN...swrn OH
Concerning...Tornado Watch 102...98...
Valid 030253Z - 030500Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 102, 98 continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for strong, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps
a few tornadoes, appears likely to persist with a line of storms
overspreading the Ohio River vicinity, including the Greater
Louisville into Cincinnati vicinities, through midnight-1 AM EDT.
Trends are being monitored for the possibility of additional watches
to the east of Tornado Watches 102 and 103.
DISCUSSION...Northeast of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio
Rivers, through the lower Ohio River vicinity, boundary-layer
instability remains weaker due to more marginal boundary-layer dew
points and weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings
suggest that CAPE (perhaps on the order of 500-1000 J/kg) may be
largely confined to the 850-500 mb layer, perhaps aided by steeper
lapse rates associated with a remnant elevated mixed-layer. Given
the intense lower/mid-tropospheric jet streak (including 60-80+ kt
southwesterly within this layer) now overspreading this region,
profiles still appear conducive to the downward transfer of damaging
gusts to the surface in the heavier rain cores.
Continuing tornadic potential remains more unclear with stronger
convection becoming undercut by the surface cold pool. However,
given a saturated near surface-layer with at least moist adiabatic
lapse rates, and the strong to extreme nature of the low-level
shear, meso-vortices with enhanced wind damage, and perhaps tornado,
potential may persist into the 04-06Z time frame.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 37508739 38628634 39158547 39048393 37078553 35028891
35478959 37508739
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0254.txt
702
ACUS11 KWNS 030247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030246
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-030415-
Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into western Ohio
Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...
Valid 030246Z - 030415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.
SUMMARY...An organized MCS capable of producing swaths of severe
wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will continue tracking eastward
across eastern Indiana into western Ohio.
DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented MCS (with embedded supercells) is
tracking eastward across eastern IN into western OH -- with the
northern portion of the line moving at 60 kt and southern part at 45
kt. This system has a history of producing destructive wind gusts
and embedded tornadoes. Ahead of these storms, the ILN VWP is
sampling an 80-kt low-level jet (at 2 km AGL), which combined with
moist/unstable inflow (lower/middle 60s dewpoints -- higher farther
south), should support its maintenance with eastward extent
(especially the southern portion of the line where instability is
greater). The primary concern with this activity continues to be
swaths of severe wind gusts (generally 70-80 mph) and embedded
tornadoes, given around 60 kt of 0-1 km shear/550 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
(per ILN VWP). With a west-southwesterly deep-layer shear vector,
any NNW/SSE-oriented portions of the line will pose the greatest
risk of severe wind and tornadoes.
..Weinman.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39348417 39008469 38868540 38778609 38868637 39098637
40218541 40468526 40858503 40938436 40868401 40708367
40228364 39818379 39348417
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0247.txt
934
ACUS11 KWNS 030121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030120
INZ000-030245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Parts of central Indiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 99...
Valid 030120Z - 030245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 99 continues.
SUMMARY...The tornado and damaging-wind risk is spreading
east-northeastward across central Indiana in Tornado Watch 99.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from IND/VWX shows an intense
bowing line segment with an embedded supercell structure tracking
east-northeastward at around 60 kt across central IN. With
moist/unstable inflow for this system (middle 60s dewpoints) and
60-70 kt of line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear (pew IND VWP), this intense
convection will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts
(upwards of 80 mph) and embedded tornadoes. Isolated cells
developing ahead of the main line will also pose a risk of
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
Farther south, semi-discrete supercell clusters are also tracking
east-northeastward within a very favorable environment (350-400
m2/s2 effective SRH and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). This activity will
continue to pose a risk of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds
as it continues east-northeastward.
..Weinman.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 38618735 38928730 39678676 40188638 40498600 40468544
40268526 39928518 39678533 39098588 38658671 38618735
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0121.txt
790
ACUS11 KWNS 030046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030045
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-030245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Indiana into western and
central Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 030045Z - 030245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase across eastern
Indiana into western and central Ohio into the overnight hours.
Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible. A
Tornado Watch will be issued within the hour (by 0030Z).
DISCUSSION...Along/south of an east/west-oriented warm front
extending across northern IN/OH, an expansive warm/moist sector has
developed (upper 50 to lower 60s dewpoints). Over the next few
hours, a 70-80-kt low-level jet (and associated warm advection) will
overspread the warm sector, promoting a rapid increase in
surface-based thunderstorm development into the overnight hours. The
00Z ILN sounding sampled fairly steep deep-layer lapse rates and
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, along with 40 kt of effective shear and a
large clockwise-curved hodograph (around 350 m2/s2 effective SRH).
As storms overspread this environment, they should quickly intensify
into a mix of supercells and organized bowing line segments --
capable of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A Tornado
Watch will be issued for parts of the area within the hour (by
0030Z).
..Weinman/Hart.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39208596 40238574 40928480 41508368 41478276 41228193
40768165 39918200 38908318 38488417 38508488 38838586
39208596
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0046.txt
323
ACUS11 KWNS 030034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030033
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-030230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...parts of srn IL...the MO Bootheel...srn/ern
AR...nwrn MS...wrn TN...wrn KY
Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...
Valid 030033Z - 030230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues.
SUMMARY...A continued gradual increase in potential for damaging
surface gusts, and tornadoes associated with meso-vortices embedded
within the evolving mesoscale convective system, are expected
through 9-10 PM CDT. Additional supercells posing a risk for strong
tornadoes still appear possible across parts of southeastern
Arkansas into the Greater Memphis area.
DISCUSSION...The narrow surface cold pool appears to have
strengthened along a corridor from Texarkana through Little Rock,
Batesville, AR and Poplar Bluff MO, where 2 hourly surface pressure
rises of 2-4 mb were sampled in the 00Z surface obs. A meso low has
developed along the gust front near Cape Girardeau, where a 2
hourly fall in excess of 3 mb was evident. Another may be
developing near/west of Memphis, where another notable fall center
was evident (in excess of 2 mb in 2 hours).
The boundary-layer remains characterized by moderate potential
instability in a narrow corridor within the confluent low-level
regime across southeastern Arkansas toward the Greater Memphis area,
where additional discrete supercell development with potential to
produce a strong tornado remains possible. Farther north into the
lower Ohio Valley this is becoming more unclear as the gust front
begins to overtake initially more discrete storm development.
Regardless, potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes with
evolving meso-vortices within the developing mesoscale convective
system are expected to continue a slow eastward progress across
southeastern Arkansas, and areas east of the Mississippi River into
lower Ohio Valley through 02-03Z.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 33659273 34439189 35149111 35819050 36668981 37398938
37808913 37818827 36928790 36118840 34399063 33459213
33659273
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0034.txt
991
ACUS11 KWNS 030027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030026
MIZ000-030230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Portions of Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 030026Z - 030230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage across portions
of Lower Michigan during the next few hours. The primary concern
would be isolated severe hail, though locally damaging gusts cannot
be entirely ruled out.
DISCUSSION...The latest VWP data from DTX/GRR shows a strengthening
low-level jet and associated warm advection overspreading Lower MI
-- to the north of an east/west-oriented warm front across northern
IN/OH. This will favor an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the
next few hours. The DTX 00Z soundings sampled an environment
marginally supportive of elevated supercell structures embedded
within increasing stratiform rain (around 55 kt of effective shear).
However, marginal elevated buoyancy (880 J/kg MUCAPE) may limit
updraft intensity to an extent. Nevertheless, the risk of isolated
severe hail (around 1 inch) should increase during the next few
hours, and locally damaging winds cannot be entirely ruled out with
any established supercells -- especially farther south closer to the
warm front.
..Weinman/Hart.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 41818567 41888640 42298652 42818638 43448545 43948373
44058285 43808250 42628242 42088289 41818352 41818567
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250403T0027.txt
333
ACUS11 KWNS 022312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022312
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South
Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...
Valid 022312Z - 030045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues.
SUMMARY...Numerous discrete supercells are intensifying in a very
favorable environment for strong to intense tornadoes across the
Mid-South.
DISCUSSION...Numerous discrete right-moving supercells are
intensifying across the open warm sector in the Mid-South as of 23Z.
The NQA VWP depicts very large, clockwise-curved hodographs with
ample streamwise vorticity for these storms (around 330 m2/s2 0-500m
SRH). Given a moist/unstable boundary layer, ample low-level shear,
and the well-established discrete supercells, several strong to
intense tornadoes are possible through this corridor over the next
couple hours.
..Weinman.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34009085 34259159 34699169 35159159 36289066 36499019
36468975 36348926 36078903 35798902 34179016 34009085
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T2312.txt
179
ACUS11 KWNS 022309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022309
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-030115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...parts of middle Tennessee through central Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022309Z - 030115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe convection, including
supercells, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes may
increase through 9-11 PM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a watch.
DISCUSSION...A clustering of discrete thunderstorm development,
likely supported by forcing associated with broad low-level warm
advection, and perhaps a weak perturbation within the strong
southwesterly flow aloft, probably will continue developing
northeastward within a slowly moistening boundary layer across the
Mid South into lower Ohio Valley. This activity still appears
embedded within a broadly anticyclonic low-level regime across
northwestern Mississippi through western and middle Tennessee, but
the Rapid Refresh suggests that surface pressure falls may lead to
weak troughing across south central through east central Kentucky by
01-02Z. It appears that this will coincide with substantive further
strengthening of low-level flow (50-70+ kt around 850 mb). If
inhibition does not become suppressive to convection, with the onset
of diurnal cooling, the risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
may increase through mid to late evening.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36878779 38178619 38378477 37758348 36328495 35538598
34958768 36238809 36878779
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T2309.txt
144
ACUS11 KWNS 022241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022240
INZ000-ILZ000-030015-
Mesoscale Discussion 0361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Portions of northeastern Illinois and northwestern
Indiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 99...
Valid 022240Z - 030015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 99 continues.
SUMMARY...Favorable corridor for tornadoes and damaging winds is
evident over the northern portion of Tornado Watch 99 from northeast
Illinois into northwest Indiana through at least 00Z.
DISCUSSION...A band of supercell clusters are tracking northeastward
from northeastern Illinois into northwestern Indiana. These storms,
along with warm-advection-driven evolving convection to the east,
are moving into an environment characterized by lower 60s dewpoints
and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (around 500 m2/s2
0-500m SRH per IWX VWP) along/south of the warm front draped across
northern Indiana. Despite a somewhat messy mode, this environment
may support an uptick in the intensity of supercell clusters over
the next hour or two, with an accompanying risk of tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts. Any supercells that can organize/intensify in
this zone would be capable of producing a strong tornado, though the
aforementioned mode evolution casts uncertainty in this scenario
unfolding at this time.
..Weinman.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 40178838 40998775 41298743 41538686 41468638 41258594
40948584 40578598 40178648 39908708 39808765 39988821
40178838
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T2241.txt
007
ACUS11 KWNS 022236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022235
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...parts of sern MO...srn IL...sern IN...swrn KY...wrn
TN...nrn through swrn AR and adjacent ne TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...
Valid 022235Z - 030030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues.
SUMMARY...A couple of long-lived supercells posing the risk of
producing strong tornadoes appear possible across northwestern
Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas through 7-9 PM CDT.
Otherwise, potential for damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may
slowly increase with a slowly east-southeastward advancing squall
line.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has become extensive within a
pre-frontal confluent zone, from the Ark-La-Tex into southern
Illinois. Outflow has generated an elongated surface cold pool,
which remains largely parallel to the 50-60 kt southwesterly
deep-layer mean flow. It appears that this includes a 60+ kt 850 mb
jet core, which is forecast to continue to nose across the Mid South
between the Greater Memphis area and southwestern Kentucky through
early evening.
Gradually, with further strengthening of the surface cold pool,
north-northeastward surging segments of the associated cold front
may become better defined, with radar reflectivities taking on more
organized line echo wave structures. Developing embedded meso
vortices may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
surface gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.
Otherwise, isolated, discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing
within a corridor of surface pressure falls (near 2 mb 2-hourly)
within the pre-frontal surface trough across northern Louisiana
through eastern Arkansas. Embedded within a seasonably moist
boundary layer, characterized by moderately large CAPE, and an
environment with large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a
couple of long-lived supercells with potential to produce strong
tornadoes appears possible into the 00-02Z time frame.
..Kerr.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33839343 35599160 36169111 36409073 36879011 37858916
38348886 38428791 37978753 36868873 35328994 33839106
32829201 32289336 32259407 32639419 33339413 33839343
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T2236.txt
014
ACUS11 KWNS 022039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022039
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-022245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Northern Mississippi into western Tennessee and
western Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...
Valid 022039Z - 022245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of strong/intense tornado potential is evident
in northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...A corridor of greater tornado risk becoming evident in
northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. Several discrete storms
have developed in an environment supportive of strong/intense
tornadoes. KPAH and KNQA VAD show ample low-level hodograph
curvature (250-325 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). With the low-level jet
strength forecast to increase over the coming hours, the environment
will become even more favorable with time.
..Wendt.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34358843 34008929 33879030 33929062 35129041 35899001
36518946 36818914 36878869 36768784 36268772 35308806
34358843
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T2039.txt
431
ACUS11 KWNS 022018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022018
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-022215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022018Z - 022215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Portions of the ArkLaTex may see an increase of severe
risk later this afternoon into the evening. The timing of the watch
is not certain. All severe hazards appear possible, particularly
with any discrete storms.
DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and some shower activity has been
noted recently within the ArkLaTex region. MLCAPE has increased to
2500-3500 J/kg where insolation has been more abundant. Strong shear
will promote organized supercells capable of all severe hazards. The
KSHV VAD shows less SRH than areas farther northeast and the
low-level jet should be shifting farther east this evening. That
being said, there will be a window late this afternoon/early evening
where a strong tornado could occur with discrete storms that track
northeast into greater SRH. A watch will need to be considered for
parts of northwest Louisiana into southwest Arkansas.
Along the front in northeast Texas, convection has generally been
anafrontal and only occasionally pulsed in intensity. Given the
primary shortwave trough lifting away from the area with time, there
may not be much push of the front southeastward. Furthermore, cloud
cover has been present most of today and hindered overall
destabilization. It is unclear how much severe activity will occur
in northeast Texas given these factors.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 32239522 32479576 33159599 33539583 33769541 33829513
34019469 33839398 33179281 32979229 32519220 32099238
31909298 31909377 31939433 32239522
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T2018.txt
200
ACUS11 KWNS 021944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021943
INZ000-ILZ000-022145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Illinois and western
Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 021943Z - 022145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity and move into
the area this afternoon posing a threat of tornadoes, hail, and
damaging wind. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing of the
threat, but a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours.
DISCUSSION...With an ejecting midlevel trough and associated surface
cyclone to the northwest of the region, the warm front has continued
to lift northward this afternoon. As a result, filtered insolation
and moisture advection have resulted in destabilization, with the
latest mesoanalysis indicating 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into
central Illinois. Given the strong low-level flow (75 kts at 2-km
AGL per 19Z ILX sounding and recent VWPs) and shear, storms will
pose a threat of strong tornadoes and severe winds.
Convective initiation within the warm sector does not appear
imminent, so storms will likely move into the area from the
south-southwest, where storms have rapidly intensified across
Missouri in the past hour. Convective mode will likely be messy
with a large component of deep-layer shear aligned with the primary
axis of convection oriented south-southwest to north-northeast.
With time, there is some expectation that storms will cluster and
grow upscale resulting in an increasing severe wind threat.
Given the threat of significant severe weather (all hazards) during
the late afternoon and evening hours, a tornado watch is likely in
the next two hours.
..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39919026 40678956 40808827 40718694 40148655 39098682
38638716 38218766 37978795 37958853 38298920 38508983
39919026
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T1944.txt
619
ACUS11 KWNS 021857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021856
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-022030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...West-central Arkansas into east-central Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 97...
Valid 021856Z - 022030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 97 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms are currently semi-discrete across
Arkansas/Missouri. Tornadoes (possibly strong) will remain possible
along with large/very-large hail and isolated severe gusts.
DISCUSSION...Slow and steady heating through cirrus/anvil debris has
allowed MLCAPE to increase to around 1500 J/kg. Storms have shown
some trends in increasing intensity over the past hour or so.
Low-level and deep-layer shear remain strong per regional VAD data.
Local radar velocity data also show some signals of stronger
mesocyclones with some of the storms. Despite shear vectors largely
parallel to the line of convection, storms have so far remained
semi-discrete. So long as this continues, a tornado (potentially
strong) is possible. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe
gusts could also occur. With time, increasing storm interactions and
greater eastward push from the front will promote upscale growth.
..Wendt.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35249419 37129280 38269173 38529092 38449023 37569024
35249235 34529296 34379375 34549418 34729434 35249419
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T1857.txt
816
ACUS11 KWNS 021751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021751
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-021945-
Mesoscale Discussion 0355
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...Missouri
Bootheel...western Kentucky...far southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 021751Z - 021945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest an increasing probability of
discrete storms near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. All severe
hazards, including strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cumulus
west-southwest of Memphis into the Missouri Bootheel/western
Kentucky. Within continued surface heating, these trends appear
likely to continue. This region, ahead of the convective activity to
the west, would be very favorable for discrete storm development.
Should this occur, all severe hazards, including the potential for
strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. Regional VAD data shows
strong low-level shear/hodograph enlargement. With the primary
synoptic shortwave and surface low farther northwest, there remain
some uncertainties as to when and how many storms will form. Morning
observed soundings from the region did have capping inversions
evident which could at least slow initiation. Given the environment,
a tornado watch is likely this afternoon.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35159158 36879023 37538914 37448812 36688817 35158974
34639056 34599098 34759142 35159158
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T1751.txt
101
ACUS11 KWNS 021217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021217
MOZ000-ILZ000-021415-
Mesoscale Discussion 0350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...portions of western to east-central MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...96...
Valid 021217Z - 021415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94, 96 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong/damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain
possible across WW 94 and 96 over west-central MO. A downstream
watch may be needed later this morning, though timing is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue near a surface
cold front across western MO this morning. Boundary layer moistening
is slowly occurring as an intense low-level jet streams over the
area, contributing to enlarged, looping hodographs. Some rotation
has been noted amid the somewhat messy storm mode early this
morning. Capping and weaker instability with eastward extent likely
is tempering severe potential somewhat, but isolated strong gusts, a
couple of tornadoes and sporadic large hail remain possible. This
convection will continue to propagate eastward through the morning
and some potential for a downstream watch into east-central MO
exists. However, timing is uncertain as destabilization is expected
to be more modest across eastern MO through the morning hours.
Trends will continue to be monitored.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37939104 37849188 37919307 38159412 38449427 38779406
39179347 39429184 39299092 38789054 38249070 37939104
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T1217.txt
310
ACUS11 KWNS 021157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021400-
Mesoscale Discussion 0349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...northeast OK into extreme southwest MO/northwest AR
Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...96...
Valid 021157Z - 021400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95, 96 continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado potential may be maximized
across northeast Oklahoma into extreme southwest Missouri/northwest
Arkansas over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shows some propensity for
linear convection to become more supercellular. This activity is
moving across the max STP corridor (effective layer STP around 5-7)
amid strong vertical shear and moderate instability. While some
rotation has been occurring, and even a brief TDS was noted over
Tulsa and Rogers Counties in northeast OK, capping and storm motion
parallel to the surface front is likely limiting the longevity of
stronger/better organized cells within the broader line of
convection. Nevertheless, a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts and
isolated large hail remain possible this morning.
..Leitman.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36889542 37099478 36869430 36399415 36069438 35629512
35449595 35509663 35979656 36809577 36889542
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T1157.txt
328
ACUS11 KWNS 021115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021115
TXZ000-OKZ000-021315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...portions of North Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021115Z - 021315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds and marginal hail to near 1 inch
possible this morning. Overall risk is expected to remain low and a
watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed along an
eastward-advancing cold front across western north Texas this
morning. Mid-60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are
contributing to strong MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Capping
and modest linear forcing associated with the cold front will likely
preclude greater severe potential despite the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. Nevertheless, isolated
gusty winds and perhaps hail to near 1 inch diameter will be
possible. Watch issuance is not currently expected, but radar trends
will continue to be monitored through the morning.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34059861 33029973 32549963 32369846 32579722 32849675
33279648 33709658 33809686 34059861
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250402T1115.txt
