162 
ACUS11 KWNS 261118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261117 
MSZ000-LAZ000-261245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 633...

Valid 261117Z - 261245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 633 continues.

SUMMARY...A notable uptick in thunderstorm intensity is evident
across parts of southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi --
within Tornado Watch 633. This trend may continue for at least
another couple hours, with a risk for a couple tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and lightning data indicate an
increase in thunderstorm intensity/organization over the last hour
-- generally in a north-south corridor extending from southeast LA
into southern MS. A couple radar-confirmed tornadoes have been noted
with this activity. The broken band of supercells are evolving
east-northeastward in an environment characterized by
enlarged/clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 250 m2/s2
0-1 km SRH per VWP) and lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. As these
established storms and favorable environment continue spreading
eastward this morning, the risk for couple tornadoes will continue
across Tornado Watch 633.

..Weinman.. 10/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29629090 31309002 31438983 31428945 31238921 30178952
            29199002 29109032 29359081 29629090 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20251026T1118.txt



461 
ACUS11 KWNS 260832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260832 
MSZ000-LAZ000-261030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 260832Z - 261030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi for continued severe risk downstream of Tornado Watch
632. The need for another watch is uncertain, though convective
trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms have been struggling to organize/intensify as
they track eastward across southern LA and southern MS in Tornado
Watch 632. This is largely due to limited large-scale forcing for
ascent and the lack of a low-level mass response amid poor lapse
rates across the surface-based warm sector. Nevertheless, a
conditionally favorable environment remains in place for rotating
storms -- characterized by enlarged/clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs (per HDC VWP) and lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints.
This environment will continue shifting eastward across southeastern
LA and southern MS into the early morning hours. As a result, a
continued conditional risk of a tornado or locally damaging gusts is
being monitored. It is unclear if another watch will be needed,
though convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Smith.. 10/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30209067 31369049 31559014 31508958 31398926 31018897
            30298903 29688947 29509036 29769064 30209067 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20251026T0832.txt



098 
ACUS11 KWNS 260637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260637 
LAZ000-MSZ000-260800-

Mesoscale Discussion 2182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Louisiana into far southwest
Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 632...

Valid 260637Z - 260800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 632 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of a couple tornadoes and locally damaging gusts
will continue spreading eastward across southern Louisiana and far
southern Mississippi early this morning -- within Tornado Watch 632.

DISCUSSION...An earlier band of convection has largely devolved into
disorganized semi-discrete elements while tracking slowly eastward
across southern LA this morning. Ahead of this activity, the HDC VWP
is sampling 40-kt flow between 0.5 and 1 km. This flow field is
coincident with around 2-mb surface pressure falls and resulting in
increased low-level hodograph curvature compared to the earlier
pre-convective environment farther west. While the continued messy
storm mode and only modest low-level mass response continue to cast
uncertainty on the overall severe risk, the implied low-level
streamwise vorticity and moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints)
will continue to support a risk of a couple tornadoes with eastward
extent.

..Weinman.. 10/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31009094 30659092 30209112 29959146 29869193 29989226
            30219230 30749197 31159158 31309134 31229110 31009094 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20251026T0637.txt



095 
ACUS11 KWNS 260241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260240 
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-260445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...southern LA and far southeast TX/southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 260240Z - 260445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some tornado and damaging wind threat may yet occur as a
messy cluster spreads eastward from southeast Texas across southern
Louisiana overnight. While temporal uncertainty exists in whether a
watch will be needed, one could be possible based on observational
trends over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...An east-southeast progressing broken linear cluster has
not produced any reported severe since 21Z. The orientation of deep
convection has largely yielded continuous undercutting by nearly
line-parallel outflow. There are signs of a more southeasterly
surge, north of Galveston Bay, which could be initial attempts at
intensification tonight as the messy cluster impinges on the
residual MLCAPE axis across southwest LA. Evening guidance has
backed off on the strength of low-level jet intensification, but
some modest increase has occurred per time-series of HGX/LCH VWPs
relative to weak low-level shear sampled by the 00Z LCH sounding.
Despite weak tropospheric lapse rates, this setup may be adequate
for a few embedded cells acquiring low-level updraft rotation. These
will be capable of producing a tornado and locally damaging winds,
especially where upper 60s surface dew points can be maintained.

..Grams/Hart.. 10/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30659414 31099300 31429127 30769062 29799056 29109088
            29239149 29699343 29699413 30099435 30659414 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20251026T0241.txt