876 
ACUS11 KWNS 251856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251856 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...southwest Kansas...the Oklahoma Panhandle and
northwest Oklahoma...and the northern Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251856Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of mainly large
hail and damaging winds is expected to increase across the
discussion area by 20-21Z. A localized corridor of tornado potential
may materialize at that time in southwest Kansas into northwest OK,
generally along and east of US 283.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite indicate a deepening
cumulus field over the central OK Panhandle, near Guymon.
Mesoanalysis places that convection near a surface low, which is
located along a front extending from southwest KS into the western
Oklahoma Panhandle. That boundary delineates a hot, deeper-mixed
boundary layer to the south across the northern TX Panhandle from a
more moist and unstable air mass to the north in southwest KS.

Continued daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization
should eventually support isolated to widely scattered, high-based 
thunderstorms across the western 2/3rds of the OK and far northern
TX Panhandles, near and to the immediate south of the frontal
segment west of the surface low. The potential for strong
evaporative cooling within the sub-cloud layer will support severe 
wind gusts as the primary hazard with large hail also possible.

Additional storms are anticipated from the vicinity of the surface
low east along the frontal segment in southwest KS and northwest OK.
That environment features a considerably more moist/low LCL
boundary, which coincides with a zone of enhanced low-level and
deep-layer shear, supportive of supercell storm modes capable of
large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes, especially along and east of
US 283.  

Convective trends are being monitored in both regimes for a possible
watch.

..Mead.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36780271 36930209 37940123 38129903 37669859 36759848
            35639984 35170111 35450242 35880286 36660301 36780271 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T1856.txt



487 
ACUS11 KWNS 251812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251811 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251811Z - 252015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
late afternoon. Sporadic instances of large hail and damaging winds
appear possible, but will most likely remain too isolated to warrant
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, thunderstorms have been slowly
deepening in the St. Louis area and eastward into southern IL. This
activity appears to be driven primarily by a combination of weak
low-level confluence and glancing ascent from a passing upper-level
wave to the north across central/northern IL. Despite the weak
ascent, very moist low-level conditions coupled with continued
diurnal warming are quickly eroding any lingering MLCIN and should
result in scattered to somewhat widespread thunderstorm coverage
from eastern MO to southwest IN over the next several hours. The
moist low-level conditions are also compensating for the otherwise
limited mid-level lapse rates and supporting MLCAPE values on the
order of 2000 J/kg. Recent VWP observations from KLSX are sampling
0-6 km bulk wind values on the order of 20-25 knots, which aligns
well with recent RRFS solutions and suggests some storm organization
is possible, including the potential for transient supercell
structures across southern IL where deep-layer wind shear should be
slightly stronger. However, weak low-level winds will likely promote
outflow-dominant convection that may modulate storm lifespans and
favor clustered storm modes. Nonetheless, sporadic instances of
large hail (possibly as high as 1.5 inches) and damaging winds
appear possible through late afternoon based on the convective
environment and output from the past few RRFS solutions.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39069079 39218752 39228683 38958657 38688655 38368674
            38078709 37948743 37788835 37768971 37859051 38109087
            38399105 38849111 39069079 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T1812.txt



591 
ACUS11 KWNS 251739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251738 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-252015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...south-central and southeast Kansas...north-central
and northeast Oklahoma...and southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251738Z - 252015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of all hazards is
expected to increase across the discussion area this afternoon.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, mosaic radar data indicated a long-lived, 
bowing line segment west of Wichita with additional more cellular
storms extending into north-central OK, east of Ponca City. That
activity is likely still slightly elevated above a stable,
near-surface inversion with the primary forcing mechanism being a
zone of warm thermal and moisture advection occurring along a 30 kt
low-level jet. Visible satellite indicates breaks in the cirrus
cloud canopy across northern OK, which should allow for pockets of
stronger heating to occur. And while mid-level lapse rates are not
particularly steep, the presence of a very moist boundary layer will
combine with the increased insolation to support MLCAPE of 1500-3000
J/kg with weakening MLCIN for surface-based parcels.

The destabilization process coupled with the persistent warm
advection is expected to promote the gradual intensification of the
ongoing storms this afternoon with additional storm development
possible along the synoptic front and/or any lingering
outflow/differential heating boundaries. The combination of 40-45 kt
westerly mid-level flow attending a subtle short-wave trough over
central KS and the low-level jet mentioned above is resulting in a
favorable kinematic environment for severe storms with the KVNX
currently sampling 0-6-km shear and 0-1-km SRH of 54 kt and 200+
m2/s2, respectively.

Given the above considerations, the potential for all severe-weather
hazards is expected to increase this afternoon with any storms that
can become rooted within the boundary layer. The greatest potential
for a strong tornado or two will exist with supercell storm modes
within this convective regime.

Convective trends are being monitored for signs that storms are
becoming surface-based, which would necessitate strong consideration
for a watch.

..Mead.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37609778 37729729 38079580 37989469 37659436 37099410
            36639424 36579468 36479516 36549655 37039780 37609778 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T1739.txt



064 
ACUS11 KWNS 251713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251713 
WYZ000-251915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Central Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251713Z - 251915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds is expected to increase
through the afternoon across central Wyoming. Watch issuance may be
needed as thunderstorms begin to intensify.

DISCUSSION...A band of weak convection has shown signs of gradual
intensification (per GOES IR imagery) across west-central WY over
the past few hours ahead of an approaching upper wave. Weak buoyancy
depicted in recent RAP mesoanalysis has modulated overall convective
intensity so far; however, clearing is noted immediately downstream
in central WY. Through mid-afternoon, mixed-layer buoyancy should
steadily increase ahead of the convective band as temperatures warm
into the low to mid 70s within a moist air mass. This will most
likely result in further intensification of the line, especially as
convection begins to be influenced by 30-35 knots of deep-layer wind
shear overspreading the region (35-40 knot mid-level flow is noted
in upstream VWPs). Consequently, an uptick in severe wind potential
is expected. Gusts will most likely remain in the 60-70 mph range,
but occasional gusts as strong as 75 mph appear possible based on
more aggressive CAM solutions. Although clearing is noted
immediately downstream of the band, persistent showers and clouds
lingering further downstream across southeast WY may limit the
overall coverage of the severe wind threat. Trends will be monitored
and watch issuance may be needed in the coming hours as the band
intensifies.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   41600721 41890951 42040981 42340981 42630949 42950924
            43260910 43630903 43960894 44130870 44200826 44020562
            43810514 43360506 42840521 42220563 41850607 41650653
            41600721 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T1713.txt



741 
ACUS11 KWNS 251217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251217 
KSZ000-OKZ000-251415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...parts of southern Kansas into far northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251217Z - 251415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A storm complex over western Kansas may persist this
morning, resulting in a corridor of damaging wind and marginal hail.
A brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the warm front.

DISCUSSION...A storm complex has developed over west-central KS this
morning near a warm front. Substantial low-level moisture already
exists in this region, and south of the warm front which extends
into south-central KS and northeast KS.

Lift associated with a weak midlevel wave, as well as increasing
southerly boundary-layer winds will maintain a moist and unstable
air mass into the warm frontal zone this morning into the midday
period. Given the size of the existing cluster, further
destabilization, favorable shear and lift along this warm front, a
corridor of wind damage is possible. Transient hail cores in any
leading cells will also be possible, though wind/MCS is most likely.
The latest DDC VWP shows a supercell profile, with over 200 m2/s2
effective SRH supporting transient supercell structures within the
complex.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38520055 38359887 38089773 37869726 37569713 37179724
            36799778 36849850 37199990 37550055 38310086 38520055 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T1217.txt



587 
ACUS11 KWNS 250427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250426 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado into southwestern
Nebraska and far northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 389...390...

Valid 250426Z - 250530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 389, 390 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe wind/hail threat will continue for several more
hours. Large hail should be expected with supercells, and severe
gusts will be most likely with a possible developing MCS in
northeastern CO.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to track southeast across
northeastern CO into southwestern NE and far northwestern KS, some
with a history of strong to severe gusts and up to golfball sized
hail. While nocturnal cooling is ongoing, 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates ahead of the storms are contributing to nearly 2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, amid 40-60 kts of effective bulk shear, which is adequate in
supporting a continued severe wind/hail threat. Severe hail will be
most likely with established storm cores in longer lived supercells.
Meanwhile severe gusts will occur with merging supercells,
particularly with the cluster extending from Arapahoe to Yuma
County, CO. If this MCS can further intensify, a more concentrated
severe gust threat may manifest, including the possibility of gusts
exceeding 75 mph.

..Squitieri.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39600516 40180355 40660123 40789936 40589890 40099861
            39809877 39499933 39140000 38820109 38720217 38740319
            38990432 39190494 39600516 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T0427.txt



971 
ACUS11 KWNS 250358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250357 
TXZ000-NMZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250357Z - 250500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail and wind may occur with
storms progressing out of east-central NM into the TX South Plains
over the next few hours. However, the severe threat should remain
isolated, with a downstream WW issuance not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular outflow dominant storms have exited
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 with a recent history of producing
measured severe gusts. These storms are overspreading a relatively
dry boundary layer, approximated by the evaluation of both the AMA
and MAF 00Z observed soundings. Furthermore, the 03Z mesoanalysis
depicts 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE preceding the storms, suggesting that
ample evaporative cooling potential exists for severe gusts,
especially where cold-pool mergers occur. However, boundary layer
cooling should temper both the spatial and temporal extent of the
severe threat, with 50+ kt gusts and 1+ inch diameter hail expected
to remain isolated overall.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36080197 35790112 35490094 34150132 33770153 33670200
            33740242 34040299 34610315 35230317 35720307 36000252
            36080197 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T0358.txt



959 
ACUS11 KWNS 250159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250158 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of extreme northeastern Colorado into
southwestern Nebraska and far northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...

Valid 250158Z - 250300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail may continue with ongoing supercells.
There is some indication of upscale growth into an MCS. Should this
occur, then severe winds will become the predominant threat.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data depicts multiple supercells
progressing southward across western/central NE. Some of these
storms have a history of severe wind and hail, with the latest
mosaic MRMS MESH data showing multiple storms potentially producing
2+ inch diameter hail. Based on the last few runs of the HRRR and
WoFS ensemble guidance, it appears that supercells will persist for
at least a few more hours, accompanied by both severe hail and
gusts. However, as also shown by the HRRR/WoFS, cold pool mergers
with ongoing supercells may encourage upscale growth into an MCS in
a few hours, with severe gusts becoming the main threat. Regardless
of storm morphology and evolution, the 00Z mesoanalysis shows 1500+
J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding the
ongoing storms, so the severe wind and hail should persist in some
form through the evening hours.

..Squitieri.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   41240259 41480166 41520076 41379990 41079914 40569879
            40009876 39759894 39589940 39590003 39770079 39970143
            40240206 40500242 40820258 41240259 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T0159.txt



453 
ACUS11 KWNS 250107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250106 
INZ000-ILZ000-250230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Illinois into northwestern
Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...

Valid 250106Z - 250230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually diminish over the next
1-2 hours. Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a
brief tornado remain possible in the meantime.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain ongoing
across portions of northeastern Illinois and are beginning to spread
into northwestern Indiana as of 0100 UTC. A mixed storm mode of
supercells and clusters has produced sporadic large hail and
damaging wind reports over the past 1-2 hours, and this threat is
expected to persist east-southeastward into far northwestern
Indiana, with isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps
a brief tornado remaining possible. Objective analysis indicates
that available buoyancy decreases rapidly with eastward extent,
however. Coupled with the onset of low-level nocturnal
cooling/stabilization and the eastward progression of the attendant
mid-level shortwave trough, this will result in a gradually
diminishing severe threat over the next couple of hours. A local
watch extension could be needed should a stronger storm or two
persist through the expiration time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
at 0300 UTC, but additional watch issuance is not anticipated at
this time.

..Chalmers.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...DVN...

LAT...LON   42278925 42438890 42418821 42168719 41788692 41298688
            40878710 40708750 40778834 41138912 41808957 42098950
            42278925 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T0107.txt



984 
ACUS11 KWNS 250047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250047 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-250145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado and western Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 389...

Valid 250047Z - 250145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 389 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail and wind remain a concern with the more robust
storms across portions of the central High Plains. An isolated
tornado risk will also continue for at least a few more hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have oscillated in intensity across
portions of southeastern WY into northeastern CO and western NE
Panhandle, some of which have produced severe hail/gusts.
Furthermore, at least one brief tornado reported in northeastern CO
over the past hour. These storms are benefiting from a favorable
kinematic and thermodynamic ambient environment, characterized by
2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and up to 60 kts of effective bulk shear per
00Z mesoanalysis. Storms closest to an effective baroclinic boundary
also have the advantage of ingesting locally higher effective SRH,
ranging from 200-500 m2/s2. The current thinking is that storms will
continue to pulse in intensity through the remainder of daylight
hours, producing severe wind and hail at their peak moments of
intensity/organization. Additionally, isolated tornadoes will remain
possible with mature supercells within the baroclinic zone.

..Squitieri.. 06/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39560298 39490377 39530438 39670489 39770494 42140570
            42670532 42870450 42620376 42100318 41660285 41090266
            40470268 40010274 39560298 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260625T0047.txt



113 
ACUS11 KWNS 242347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242346 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska into far northwestern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 242346Z - 250015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk should expand east of Tornado Watch 389
into western NE and far northwestern KS through the evening hours.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado is also
possible. A WW will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in both coverage and intensity
along the CO/NE border, likely due to strong 700 mb WAA
overspreading a surface baroclinic boundary. In addition to minimal
MLCINH over the region, 23Z mesoanalysis shows nearly 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE overlapping with 50+ kts of effective SRH, which should be
more than sufficient to support severe hail or wind with the
stronger updrafts. Storms that can remain closer to the surface
boundary will have a better chance at producing a tornado.
High-resolution model guidance (including deterministic HRRR runs
and the latest WoFS guidance) suggest that storm clustering and
potential upscale growth are possible later this evening. Should
this occur, the severe gust threat may become more pronounced.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   42660277 40439865 40009864 39749880 39569921 39549975
            39670038 39970091 40320141 40820196 41090231 41340250
            42660277 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260624T2347.txt



769 
ACUS11 KWNS 242335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242334 
INZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242334Z - 250100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears unlikely at
this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface
temperature/thermal gradient in place across portions of northern
Indiana. Despite dense cloud cover, low-level warm, moist air
advection has resulted in temperatures and dewpoints rising into the
mid-70s and low-60s F, respectively, south of this boundary. While
latest objective analysis indicates that buoyancy remains negligible
(less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) across this area, recent high-res
guidance suggests that weak destabilization may occur south of this
surface boundary over the next 1-2 hours preceding the arrival of
convection currently ongoing across northern/northeastern Illinois.
The overall expectation is for convection to weaken as it
approaches/enters northwestern Indiana owing to the aforementioned
weaker buoyancy and waning diurnal cycle. Thus, downstream watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time. Trends will continue to be
monitored, however, as effective shear of 35-40+ kts may allow a
low-end severe risk to persist into northwestern Indiana.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41088744 41408743 41538714 41528697 41478671 41358647
            41178627 40888615 40538617 40378627 40268645 40208697
            40318740 40498751 41088744 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260624T2335.txt



799 
ACUS11 KWNS 242306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242306 
UTZ000-NVZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242306Z - 250030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered, high-based convection continues to pose a risk
for sporadic damaging/severe wind gusts. Watch issuance remains
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered, high-based thunderstorms
have developed from eastern Nevada into central Utah ahead of an
approaching mid-level shortwave trough as of late afternoon. A deep,
well-mixed boundary layer and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, as
sampled by the 18 UTC SLC observed sounding, are favoring efficient
evaporative cooling and downdraft accelerations, with several
reports of 60+ mph wind gusts already received. Over the next 1-2
hours, ongoing convection south of the greater Salt Lake City area
may spread northward with a continued threat for occasional
damaging/severe wind gusts. Additionally, recent high-res guidance
suggests that some cold pool consolidation may occur with the more
scattered convection noted across eastern Nevada, with the resultant
loosely-organized cluster/band then developing east-southeastward.
Should this scenario unfold, a locally greater risk for severe wind
gusts may evolve across portions of western Utah in association with
this convection. Despite this potential, relatively weak flow
sampled below 5-6 km AGL by the MTX/LRX VAD profiles may preclude a
greater coverage of severe wind gusts. This continues to lend
uncertainty to the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   38771590 39601528 40681404 41151310 41281219 41241166
            40901117 40251089 39781086 39371092 39001138 38551232
            38131402 38011508 38121565 38251595 38771590 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260624T2306.txt



354 
ACUS11 KWNS 242248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242247 
NMZ000-COZ000-242345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into southeastern
Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...

Valid 242247Z - 242345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts and perhaps hail continues
across portions of the Southern Plains for at least a few more
hours.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells have developed and
intensified across portions of far southeastern CO into eastern NM,
where MRMS MESH suggests that 1-2 inch hail has been falling with
these storms. 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and up to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE precede these storms, so a severe gust/hail threat should
persist with the stronger, longer lived storms.

..Squitieri.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34240551 38140501 38910456 38620372 36250342 34990314
            34250331 33940364 33920464 34240551 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260624T2248.txt



812 
ACUS11 KWNS 242228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242228 
WIZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-250000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of the western Great Lakes region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...

Valid 242228Z - 250000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts
continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387. A brief tornado or
two also remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts widely scattered
thunderstorms ongoing from northern Wisconsin southward into
northern Illinois, with a mixed mode of supercells and clusters
noted as of 2220 UTC. This convection has produced several reports
of large hail (up to 1.25" in diameter) over the past 1-2 hours,
with sporadic reports of wind damage and brief funnel clouds also
received. This risk will persist over the next couple of hours as
convection evolves east-southeastward towards Lake Michigan. 

The greatest severe potential appears to exist across the southern
half of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area, where greater buoyancy
exists within the hail growth zone, which may promote an instance or
two of large hail approaching golf ball size. Modestly steeper
low-level lapse rates will also continue to promote the potential
for damaging wind gusts. Lastly, a brief tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, especially where low-level SRH is modestly enhanced in
the vicinity of the lake breeze.

..Chalmers.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...

LAT...LON   41858754 41708792 41628917 41758991 41889014 41989025
            42779068 43559071 44849050 44929046 45908958 46168843
            46138778 45798742 44658746 43248770 42078742 41858754 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260624T2228.txt



463 
ACUS11 KWNS 242215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242214 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southern Oklahoma into far northern
Texas...extreme southwestern Arkansas and extreme northwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242214Z - 242345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail risk exists along a
baroclinic boundary under the condition that storms can initiate and
organize.

DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary currently
resides just north of the Red River along much of far southern OK.
Despite weak synoptic forcing for ascent, extreme buoyancy (4000+
J/kg MLCAPE) and minimal MLCINH with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
is coinciding with the boundary per 21Z mesoanalysis. As such, any
storm that manages to develop and sustain itself will have the
potential to produce severe wind/hail or perhaps a tornado. A storm
has recently initiated over Atoka County, OK, suggesting that
surface-based heating is strong enough to support additional
isolated attempts at convective initiation along this boundary over
the next several hours. The severe threat should remain isolated
given overall lack of deep-layer ascent.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON   34580004 34719900 34679652 34399496 33879370 33129284
            32659274 32469311 32619394 33059519 33369674 33649842
            33799915 33949963 34119997 34580004 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260624T2215.txt



928 
ACUS11 KWNS 242020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242020 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into northern Colorado and far
western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 242020Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely by late afternoon
for southeast Wyoming and into the Colorado Front Range. Watch
issuance will likely be needed as convection begins to intensify.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted along the northern CO Front
Range per recent GOES day cloud phase imagery with at least a couple
of early, but transient, attempts a initiation noted near Castle
Rock, CO and Cheyenne, WY. This activity is largely being driven by
orographic ascent on the northeastern fringe of the low/mid-level
thermal ridge in place from northern NM to northern CO where
mid-level lapse rates are fairly steep, but capping is somewhat
weaker. Additional attempts at initiation appear likely over the
next 1-2 hours based on satellite trends, but lingering inhibition
at lower elevation may preclude robust, self-sustained convection in
the near term. However, continued daytime heating of a very moist
air mass (dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s) will continue to erode
inhibition and increase the probability for successful initiation
either along the Front Range, off the Laramie Mountains, and/or
along a weak cold frontal boundary draped from western NE into
east-central WY. Latest CAM guidance and a recent ACARs sounding
from Denver, CO suggest temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s may
be required for this to occur. 

Once deep convection can become established, it will mature within
an environment favorable for splitting supercells given very
elongated hodographs characterized by 50-60 knots of effective bulk
shear. Southeasterly low-level flow across WY and into northern
CO/western NE may support some tornado threat with any discrete
right-moving supercell, but the more probable hazard will be severe
gusts and very large hail - possibly as large as 2-4 inches in
diameter. Watch issuance is expected once sustained convection
becomes apparent.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   39210538 39980535 40820552 41460599 42580666 42960673
            43230660 43360628 43380584 43280526 43120472 42850409
            42420376 41910349 40690316 40050308 39630316 39300342
            39030387 38980429 38950501 38990527 39210538 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260624T2020.txt



158 
ACUS11 KWNS 241913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241912 
UTZ000-NVZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241912Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the eastern Great Basin
region will pose a risk for severe downburst winds. Watch issuance
is possible for portions of the region as thunderstorm coverage
increases through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows steady deepening of cumulus
across eastern NV into UT as temperatures quickly warm into the low
90s. An 18 UTC RAOB from SLC sampled some lingering inhibition, but
modifying the sounding based on regional surface observations
suggests that inhibition should largely be removed as temperatures
warm into the mid 90s. Wildfire smoke and high-level cirrus across
central and eastern UT may mute diurnal warming to some degree, but
portions of eastern NV/northwest UT will likely reach these
temperatures within the next hour or so. As this occurs,
thunderstorm initiation will become more probable, especially as
ascent ahead of an approaching upper disturbance overspreads the
region. Dry boundary-layer conditions observed in the sounding
appear to be fairly widespread based on 45-50 F dewpoint depressions
region-wide. These low-level thermodynamic profiles are favorable
for accelerating downdrafts capable of producing strong to severe
wind gusts, possibly as high as 75 mph (especially if more coherent,
loosely organized clusters or bands can become established as hinted
by some CAM solutions). Trends will continue to be monitored, and
watch issuance may be needed as thunderstorm coverage begins to
increase.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   38441564 39331575 39781560 41411408 41721331 41771274
            41661206 41361171 40741143 40291132 39951131 39601138
            39131156 38591213 38271280 38011349 37951394 37831494
            38001526 38441564 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260624T1913.txt