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253
ACUS11 KWNS 090914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090913
LAZ000-TXZ000-091045-
Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025
Areas affected...portions of central to southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400...
Valid 090913Z - 091045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind threat will persist for the next 1
to 2 hours across parts of central Texas into southeast Texas.
DISCUSSION...Convection has mostly weakened along the southward
moving outflow boundary from southeast Texas into southern
Louisiana. On the western periphery of the outflow boundary, across
central Texas, stronger storms have persisted amid stronger
instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Some stronger inbound
velocities are present from the KGRK WSR-88D which could result in
isolated severe wind reports. While additional strengthening of
these storms appears unlikely, the environment should support some
maintenance of ongoing storms with a continued threat for isolated
severe wind gusts.
Farther east along the the outflow boundary, additional convection
has started to develop across southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana. It is unclear whether these storms will be severe, but
watch 400 will be maintained across this region despite the warm
700mb temperatures, in case a few severe storms develop. Severe wind
gusts from wet microbursts will likely be the primary threat from
this activity.
..Bentley.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31529782 31369682 30899480 30939395 30989341 30719293
30299299 30089341 29949526 30049642 30219740 30359778
30569814 31049842 31529782
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250609T0914.txt
719
ACUS11 KWNS 090614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090614
TXZ000-090745-
Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025
Areas affected...parts of east-central/southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 090614Z - 090745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed south of watch
399.
DISCUSSION...A southward moving line of storms from northeast Texas
to north-central Texas will pose some severe weather threat through
the early morning hours Monday. 2000 to 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40
knots of effective shear should provide sufficient
instability/organization for this line of storms to persist through
the morning. The line is broken across central Texas with some more
organized segments southeast of Dallas and more supercellular
structure southwest of Fort Worth. Some guidance, such as the HRRR,
suggests that these supercells across central Texas may congeal into
a cluster and move southeast toward College Station. If this occurs,
a greater severe weather threat may materialize across east-central
Texas. However, if the storms remain somewhat spaced and well behind
the gust front, a more organized severe wind threat seems more
uncertain.
Trends will be monitored and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30629798 31129842 31489854 31659837 32309588 31629468
31029451 30459424 29939477 29789583 30179671 30629798
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250609T0614.txt
846
ACUS11 KWNS 090430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090429
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090600-
Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...Parts of north/central/east TX into western LA and
extreme southeast OK/southwest AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...
Valid 090429Z - 090600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
continues.
SUMMARY...Swaths of damaging wind are possible into the overnight.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow echo has evolved across northeast
TX, with regional radars suggesting the presence of a rather strong
rear-inflow jet. There is some lingering influence of earlier
convection and related outflow downstream of this bow, but given its
current organized state and the presence of favorable buoyancy and
deep-layer shear, an organized damaging-wind threat (with gusts
potentially 75 mph or greater) is likely to continue southeastward
into at least the early overnight hours. Line-embedded tornadoes
also cannot be ruled out.
Farther west, southward-moving outflow has resulted in measured
severe gusts across parts of the DFW Metroplex. A small bowing
segment with embedded supercells (the remnant of an earlier
long-lived supercell cluster) has recently intensified and produced
a 60 kt gust in Mineral Wells. This eastward-moving bow is
intersecting the southward-moving outflow, and may continue eastward
across parts of the Metroplex with a continued severe-wind threat,
and possibly a tornado in the vicinity of the intersecting outflow
boundaries.
Some severe threat may eventually spread east and south of WW 399,
and local watch expansion and/or new watch issuance may eventually
be needed.
..Dean/Gleason.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31859320 31169442 31049644 31549777 32499795 32809777
33119590 34159531 34069436 33849398 33169358 32509323
32149312 31859320
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250609T0430.txt
555
ACUS11 KWNS 090226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090226
TXZ000-OKZ000-090400-
Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into extreme southeast
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...399...
Valid 090226Z - 090400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 399
continues.
SUMMARY...Widespread severe winds are expected across northern Texas
with a growing MCS. Further organization into a bow echo is
possible, along with 75-100 mph gusts.
DISCUSSION...Several supercells and intense multicellular clusters
have begun to merge, and they are likely connected by a singular
strong/deep cold pool. This resultant MCS continues to track
southeastward, with a history of several severe gusts, including
those measured at 80-100 mph. Very strong instability and 40-50 kts
of effective bulk shear precede this MCS. A derecho is likely over
the next several hours, with additional 75-100 mph gusts embedded
within a broader swath of 60+ mph winds expected, as also shown by
some of the latest WoFS ensemble output.
..Squitieri.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32430009 32749998 33539855 34349739 34719704 34509570
34309512 34139487 33769459 33099440 32509471 32019522
31709597 31549686 31459776 31479852 31979959 32239999
32430009
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250609T0226.txt
994
ACUS11 KWNS 090205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090205
OKZ000-TXZ000-090330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...
Valid 090205Z - 090330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396
continues.
SUMMARY...Some of the stronger storms may still produce a few
instances of severe gusts/hail.
DISCUSSION...Several multicells and supercells are propagating
southward behind residual outflow boundaries across portions of the
Texas Panhandle. Over the past couple of hours, a few instances of
severe hail/wind have been reported. However, the passage of
convective outflow, along with nocturnal cooling should begin to
limit the severe threat behind the predominant cluster of
thunderstorms over northwestern TX. In the short-term though, a
couple more instances of severe hail/wind cannot be ruled out.
..Squitieri.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33580155 33960215 34540246 35050257 35010085 34629980
33949980 33550015 33470075 33580155
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250609T0205.txt
191
ACUS11 KWNS 090140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090139
ILZ000-MOZ000-090315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...Central/southern MO into southwest IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...
Valid 090139Z - 090315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may spread southeast into
late evening.
DISCUSSION...Some recent intensification has been noted with storms
near a cold front across south-central/southeast MO, with other
strong storms ongoing within the post-frontal regime into
west-central MO. For the storms near the front, MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support some threat for hail
and damaging gusts. Longevity of these storms remains uncertain, but
there is some potential for an isolated severe threat to eventually
spread southeast out of WW 395. Any potential downstream watch
issuance will depend on short-term trends regarding these storms
over the next 60-90 minutes.
MUCAPE is still on the order of 1000 J/kg immediately north of the
front, and an isolated severe threat cannot be ruled out with these
storms as well through the evening. Any remaining severe threat
should subside in the wake of the post-frontal storms, as cooler and
more stable conditions move into the region.
..Dean/Gleason.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 36779245 37229378 37699454 38049409 38649235 38459053
38088933 37688926 37348935 37018984 36809037 36689083
36659142 36689190 36779245
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250609T0140.txt
748
ACUS11 KWNS 090122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090122
OKZ000-090245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...396...
Valid 090122Z - 090245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394, 396
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun increasing in intensity, and a
few severe gusts may occur with the stronger storm cores over the
next few hours.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts strengthening
multicells and possible supercells in central OK along the leading
outflow from earlier convection to the west. KTLX radar data is
showing strong inbound velocities with storms immediately west of
the OKC metro area, and they are overspreading a very unstable
airmass (over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE). As such, severe gusts may accompany
the stronger storm cores over the next few hours, as also suggested
by some of the latest WoFS ensemble output.
..Squitieri.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35429814 35409706 35139631 34809606 34569608 34379639
34409692 34569751 34859783 35429814
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250609T0122.txt
813
ACUS11 KWNS 090023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090022
TXZ000-OKZ000-090145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...397...
Valid 090022Z - 090145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 397
continues.
SUMMARY...A significant severe wind risk is increasing with merging
supercells. A bow echo may develop and produce a derecho, with peak
gusts in the 80-100 mph range possible.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, with reported severe hail across
the southeastern TX Panhandle, are beginning to merge. Multiple West
Texas Mesonet stations have reported peak 10-m gusts in roughly the
60-75 mph range, and this trend should continue to increase if these
storms successfully morph into a bow echo over the next couple of
hours. While supercells have occurred downstream of the southeast TX
Panhandle storms, it does not appear that large-scale tropospheric
overturning has occurred. As such, a very unstable warm sector
precedes the upscale-growing storms, with 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and
50 kts of effective bulk shear being common (as also shown by the
00Z FWD observed sounding). The effective bulk shear vectors are
oriented roughly orthogonal to the merging line, which should
further encourage bow echo development.
Assuming bow echo development ensues over the next few hours, a
strong cold pool could encourage intense rear-inflow jet
development, which upon downward momentum transport could support a
derecho. In this scenario, widespread 60+ mph sustained winds may be
expected, with multiple embedded gusts peaking somewhere in the
75-100 mph range. The derecho could begin somewhere in the 01-03Z
period, and last for several hours downstream, the evolution of
which may need to be covered with a downstream PDS Severe
Thunderstorm Watch across much of north-central into northeast TX.
..Squitieri.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 34200052 33929778 33639726 33239725 32569766 32119826
32159921 32419995 32650054 33050107 34200052
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250609T0023.txt
669
ACUS11 KWNS 082319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082318
LAZ000-TXZ000-090045-
Mesoscale Discussion 1211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Texas to extreme
western Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...
Valid 082318Z - 090045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
continues.
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells will continue to traverse a diffuse
baroclinic boundary and pose a risk for severe hail and wind over
the next few hours. A greater severe risk is expected to evolve
later this evening with other storms that approach from the west.
DISCUSSION...Multiple mature supercells are in progress across
northern TX to the LA border along a diffuse baroclinic boundary.
Severe hail has been reported with some storms, and current MRMS
mosaic MESH data suggests that 2-3 inch hail may be falling with the
more dominant supercells. Given the 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50+
kts of effective bulk shear still in place, these storms should
continue to pose a significant-severe hail and wind risk for at
least a few more hours.
Eventually, supercells across the southeast TX Panhandle should
merge into an MCS as they approach from the west. While the exact
timing and evolution of this scenario is still somewhat uncertain,
the general thinking is that a bow echo with an organized
significant severe wind swath will approach the region, with peak
gusts in the 70-100 mph range. Future MCDs will be written for
northern TX as this scenario comes closer to fruition.
..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 32339849 33249714 33389634 32619403 31859365 31469384
31469495 31769664 32009798 32339849
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2319.txt
645
ACUS11 KWNS 082318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082317
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-090045-
Mesoscale Discussion 1210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...the Mid Atlantic vicinity
Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...
Valid 082317Z - 090045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for a tornado, damaging wind, and hail
may continue through the evening.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storms are ongoing this evening
across much of VA. The environment remains favorably moist and
MLCAPE is generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, though weak
midlevel lapse rates have tended to limit updraft strength thus far.
Occasional rotation has been noted with the strongest cells, and
effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support some supercell
potential this evening.
Low-level flow is not particularly strong, but effective SRH remains
locally enhanced near/north of a diffuse surface boundary extending
from southeast to central VA, where winds are locally backed.
Supercells near/north of this boundary could still pose some tornado
threat. Otherwise, locally damaging wind and isolated hail could
accompany the strongest storms.
..Dean.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 37977960 39587862 39497749 38937584 37847518 36367516
36037548 36457844 36757954 37497971 37977960
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2318.txt
133
ACUS11 KWNS 082304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082303
OKZ000-090000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0603 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of western and central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...396...
Valid 082303Z - 090000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394, 396
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail will become common with merging
multicells and supercells over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Several multicell clusters and transient supercells
have recently developed across western into central OK, with a
history of at least marginally severe hail. These storms are
increasing in coverage and intensity along a diffuse and broad
baroclinic boundary, along the northern extent of deeper/richer
moisture. MLCAPE ranges from 1500-5000 J/kg along the baroclinic
boundary, and the ongoing storms are expected to move or propagate
east-southeastward toward the OKC metro along this boundary over the
next hour or so. Gradual upscale growth into an MCS is likely over
the next 2-4 hours, where severe gusts will become the main threat.
In the meantime, severe hail is likely with the more intense,
semi-discrete storms.
..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 35039938 35539983 36009989 36209903 36279870 36159804
35529693 35079695 34719725 34629788 34779870 35039938
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2304.txt
741
ACUS11 KWNS 082218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082218
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-082345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...Northeast OK/southeast KS into southwest MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...
Valid 082218Z - 082345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into early
evening.
DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing in the vicinity of
a cold front from southeast KS/northeast OK into southwest MO.
Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and
effective shear of 30-35 kt will continue to support strong to
locally severe storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the
most likely hazards in the short term, though some tornado threat
cannot be ruled out with any supercells that can be sustained and
not be undercut by outflow in this regime. Given the concentration
of ongoing storms, some modest clustering cannot be ruled out as
convection spreads southeastward with time.
With the severe threat spreading southward across northeast OK, WW
395 has been locally expanded to the south, and additional
expansions may be needed depending on convective trends.
..Dean.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36719392 36479458 35989529 35889582 35849630 35899676
36339694 37359694 37499543 37479490 37459425 36719392
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2218.txt
448
ACUS11 KWNS 082211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082210
OKZ000-TXZ000-082345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...396...
Valid 082210Z - 082345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394, 396
continues.
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells will continue over the next few hours
with a significant-severe wind/hail threat. A tornado may also
accompany the more dominant, discrete supercells with unimpeded
inflow.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have matured across the TX
Panhandle over the last few hours, with 4+ inch hail recently
reported with the Hall/Briscoe County, TX border storm, and a
tornado reported in Dallam County, TX. Supercells across the TX
Panhandle are gradually merging, and the development into an MCS may
occur over the next 3-4 hours. At the moment, there are two
supercells that are remaining more discrete (Hall/Briscoe County and
Hartley County). These storms have relatively pristine inflow of
4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which will support a risk for either 4-5 inch
diameter hail or a tornado for the next few hours. Severe gusts
remain possible with all storms. 75+ mph gusts are most likely with
mature storms that merge.
..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36310300 36510140 35990037 34949946 34509949 34260060
34780236 35000289 36310300
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2211.txt
336
ACUS11 KWNS 082138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082137
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-082230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas into western Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 082137Z - 082230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase along a baroclinic
boundary over the next few hours. Severe wind/hail and perhaps a
tornado will occur with the stronger storms.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have become established
along a broad, diffuse baroclinic boundary in northeast TX into
western LA, with initiation evident west of the DFW Metroplex. MRMS
mosaic radar data depicts 50 dBZ echoes reaching over 50 kft, with
MESH cores exceeding 1 inch in diameter with storms closer to the
TX/LA border. MLCAPE is exceeding 4500 J/kg in proximity to these
storms, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow contributing to 45
kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Given relatively
weak MLCINH, these storms may persist for at least a few hours
despite overall weak deep-layer ascent. Recent FWD VAD shows
modestly elongated hodographs, so supercells should remain the
predominant mode with the more isolated storms. Severe wind and hail
may accompany these storms, and 75+ mph gusts and 3+ inch diameter
hail is possible, along with a tornado.
Although a relatively greater severe threat should materialize this
evening, a shorter-term but appreciable threat does exist with the
ongoing storms, which will necessitate a WW issuance soon.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33119395 32309245 31689265 31579293 31419349 31409376
31749534 32289721 32529899 32899912 33399853 33439771
33669569 33119395
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2138.txt
716
ACUS11 KWNS 082050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082050
NMZ000-COZ000-082245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado and New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 082050Z - 082245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across the
Front Range in Colorado and across northeastern New Mexico. The air
mass across Colorado remains under the influence of MLCIN, with
temperatures cooling with northern extend behind the surface cold
front. Moisture is also somewhat limited, with dew points in the
upper 40s to 50s. A few instances of severe hail will be possible.
Across eastern New Mexico near the dryline, a gradient of more
appreciable MLCAPE 500-1500 j/kg is in place along with deep layer
shear around 30-45 kts. Temperatures are in the mid 70s to 80s amid
dew points in the 50s to upper 60s. This may support some instances
of severe wind and hail, with at least one supercell noted on radar.
Trends will be monitored for watch potential, but it appears
unlikely at this time.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35430435 35720483 36590502 37720541 38440568 38860579
40050572 40140528 40170471 39990424 39230365 38670352
37760350 36110345 35830369 35430435
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2050.txt
128
ACUS11 KWNS 082032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082031
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-082200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA and MD
Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...
Valid 082031Z - 082200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.
SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will persist
into early evening across northern/central Virginia, and portions of
Maryland.
DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are ongoing closer to a surface
boundary across eastern VA, and further west across the higher
terrain of central VA. These storms will continue to shift east
across a moderately unstable airmass and within 30-40 kt effective
shear. A surface boundary extending from northern VA southeast into
southeast VA will continue to support a corridor of enhanced
low-level shear supporting storm rotation. A couple tornadoes and
damaging gusts will remain possible over the next few hours.
..Leitman.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 39717663 37297570 37277845 39647935 39717663
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2032.txt
061
ACUS11 KWNS 082030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082030
TXZ000-082230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of western Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 082030Z - 082230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat may increase through the
afternoon/early evening.
DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed across the Davis Mountains in
far western Texas this afternoon. The environment in this region is
characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and
deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. This will support potential for
supercells to produce some instances of large to very large hail and
severe winds. MLCIN does increase with eastward extent, which may
limit coverage/duration of this threat. This area will be monitored
for watch potential.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29800412 30300418 30990396 31410372 31650345 31940245
31920237 31890198 31820184 31710152 31560128 31290120
31070124 30440146 29940167 29580238 29230274 29010296
28930336 29180377 29800412
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2030.txt
703
ACUS11 KWNS 082018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082017
TXZ000-OKZ000-082215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of southwestern and north-central
Texas...southwestern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 082017Z - 082215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail/tornado threat to increase through the
afternoon before a more significant wind threat emerges.
DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles as of this hour, with at least one
tornado reported in Cimarron/Dallam counties. Additional development
is ongoing west of Amarillo. It is likely some mix of supercell
clusters will advance south and eastward through time, with
potential for additional development to occur ahead of the dryline
in New Mexico.
Low-level shear improves with southward extent into Lubbock where
surface winds are backed southeasterly improving low-level curvature
of hodographs and streamwise vorticity. It is likely that as storms
develop and move southward, the tornado threat will increase through
time even with the shifting storm mode.
A sharp gradient of extreme MLCAPE exists along the Red River near
the Texas/Oklahoma border into north-central Texas amid steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. As upscale growth increases, the potential
will rapidly increase for destructive winds (80-100 mph). A Tornado
or PDS Severe Watch is likely needed to cover this potential.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32989778 32499909 32520039 33030180 33140195 33260213
33570238 33970226 34220198 34450154 34640114 34890054
34990025 34859872 34689799 34259739 34119726 33449729
33079758 32989778
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T2018.txt
340
ACUS11 KWNS 081836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081835
MSZ000-LAZ000-082030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of LA and southwest MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081835Z - 082030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may produce sporadic strong gusts
this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across northern LA will continue to
propagate south/southeast this afternoon. Additional isolated storms
have also developed further south from central LA into southern MS,
likely along residual outflow and a band of differential heating.
Large-scale ascent is somewhat nebulous across the region, but a
band of moderate west/northwest flow aloft will persist. Strong
heating an dewpoints well into the 70s F is supporting strong
MLCAPE. Sporadic robust updrafts are possible over the next several
hours and occasional strong gusts will be possible. While a severe
thunderstorm watch is not expected immediately, trends will be
monitored.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32389332 32639188 32059089 31069121 30729248 30899328
31729353 32149370 32389332
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T1836.txt
067
ACUS11 KWNS 081827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081827
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 081827Z - 082030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging
wind, and tornadoes likely this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows increasing cu along a
stationary front located across northern OK into southwestern KS.
MLCIN remains in place across much of the OK/TX panhandles, however,
with temperatures warming into the mid 80s this is beginning to
weaken particularly on the northern and western fringes. Even with
morning elevated convection, a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE is
setting up along the panhandles to the Red River on the OK/TX
border.
Initial mode will likely be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large (some 3-4"+) hail, damaging wind (some 70+ mph), and a
couple of tornadoes. VAD profiles from LUB and AMA depict low level
curvature of hodographs indicative of favorable low level shear to
support a tornado threat. Though cells may have the propensity to
cluster, strong deep layer shear and mesoscale storm interactions
will likely allow for some embedded tornado threat to persist even
with a shift in storm mode. A watch will be needed to cover this
threat in the coming hours.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34940274 35680294 36300304 37030286 37090228 37120169
37020135 36880095 36700062 36430010 35919989 35159985
34929985 33770026 33220048 33100146 33090183 33250235
33460256 33780258 34940274
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T1827.txt
958
ACUS11 KWNS 081820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081819
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-082015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of west-central IL...southwest to
northeast MO...southeast KS...and northeast OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 081819Z - 082015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
couple of hours. Damaging gusts and large hail will be possible as
storms develop eastward through early evening.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing/deepening
cumulus along the MO/IL portion of the cold front early this
afternoon. Strong heating of a seasonally moist boundary layer is
fostering weak to moderate instability (stronger instability with
southwest extent into KS/OK). Isolated thunderstorms have recently
develop across north-central MO just ahead of the cold front where
inhibition has eroded. Additional thunderstorm development is
expected along/ahead of the cold front over the next few hours.
Stronger effective shear may lag just behind the cold front,
regardless, sufficient speed shear and some stronger northwesterly
mid/upper flow should allow for organized cells. Steep low-level
lapse rates will support severe/locally damaging gust potential.
Meanwhile, large hail also will be possible, particularly across
southeast KS/northeast OK and portions of southwest MO where more
robust updraft intensity is possible.
Severe potential does become more uncertain with northeast extent
given the more modest parameter space, but a severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours for
portions of the MCD area.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37639624 38179549 39319338 39789238 40249120 40179078
39929039 39319048 38849065 38569098 36759376 36399453
36289508 36289530 36339576 36539620 36769642 37059654
37359644 37639624
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T1820.txt
691
ACUS11 KWNS 081740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081739
NCZ000-VAZ000-081845-
Mesoscale Discussion 1198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of far southeast VA into eastern NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 081739Z - 081845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly pose a
risk for damaging gusts, will be possible through the afternoon. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating and rich boundary layer moisture
(surface dewpoints in the 70s) is supporting moderate instability
across the MCD area early this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
shows agitated/deepening cumulus across eastern NC, and thunderstorm
development is expected within the next 1-2 hours. Effective shear
magnitudes will remain modest, but sufficient for organized
convection. Meanwhile, steep low-level lapse rates will support
strong outflow, especially if updraft consolidation from multicell
clusters occurs. Given potential for widely scattered damaging
gusts, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 36477769 36817674 36647593 36077547 35257553 34647632
34707775 34817823 35127840 36067787 36477769
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T1740.txt
706
ACUS11 KWNS 081704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081704
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-081830-
Mesoscale Discussion 1197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of VA/MD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081704Z - 081830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms are
possible through the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main
hazard but a tornado and sporadic hail also are possible.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is develop early this afternoon in
a weakly unstable airmass in the vicinity of an effective warm front
draped across northern VA toward coastal MD. As additional heating
occurs over the Blue Ridge, thunderstorm coverage should increase
and storms will move across the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity
through the afternoon. Overall instability and midlevel lapse rates
will remain modest. However, effective shear around 30-40 kt will
support organized cells. Where steeper low-level lapse rates develop
amid stronger heating, strong/severe gusts will be possible.
Low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced along the warm front, as
is evident in the LWX VWP, which shows a mildly enlarged and
favorably curved low-level hodograph. Rotating storms interacting
with the warm front could pose a risk for a brief tornado or two.
The area is being evaluated for possible watch issuance.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 38987851 39297781 39267736 39157695 38847623 38407580
37587544 36967538 36607571 36577610 36557726 36777834
37207889 38027910 38577893 38987851
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T1704.txt
132
ACUS11 KWNS 081605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081604
OKZ000-TXZ000-081800-
Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into western OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081604Z - 081800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms may produce isolated large hail and
strong gusts through early afternoon before more intense convection
develops by mid/late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends have shows towering cumulus
and isolated thunderstorm development late this morning in a
low-level warm advection regime. Strong capping is still in place
across the region, with temperatures still mainly in the 70s in the
OK/TX Panhandles, through strong heating is occurring and
temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s across western OK.
This initial thunderstorm activity will remain elevated, but could
become surface based over the next few hours via mixing and
additional heating/moistening. Regardless, this convection is
developing within a strong MUCAPE gradient near the western OK/TX
Panhandle border, and within 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes.
Very steep midlevel lapse rates are also in place across the region.
As a result, even this initially elevated convection could pose a
risk for large hail.
The need for a watch with this early activity is uncertain and
trends will be monitored. Additional, more intense and surface-based
convection is still expected to develop by mid/late afternoon and
will be addressed in subsequent MCDs as the risk evolves over time.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34160172 34660193 35390179 36540144 36650120 36660082
36640014 36199966 34839913 33919907 33429916 33199937
33170000 33260062 33540109 34110168 34160172
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20250608T1605.txt
