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181
ACUS11 KWNS 110632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110631
TXZ000-110800-
Mesoscale Discussion 0703
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...
Valid 110631Z - 110800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198
continues.
SUMMARY...A weak MCV will promote strong to marginally severe storms
capable of wind damage and small hail.
DISCUSSION...The remaining portion of stronger activity within WW
198 is northwest of Houston in close proximity to a weak MCV
feature. Cooler outflow is noted north of Houston, but a very moist
and weakly capped airmass is just south of the outflow boundary.
Convection along and south of the boundary will remain capable of
damaging winds and small hail.
..Wendt.. 05/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...
LAT...LON 29359638 30159629 30559633 30569591 30519535 30029513
29639510 29339545 29359638
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260511T0632.txt
873
ACUS11 KWNS 110551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110550
TXZ000-110715-
Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Areas affected...Deep South Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...
Valid 110550Z - 110715Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts will
remain possible in Deep South Texas. Given weakening trends observed
over the last hour, a downstream watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Both lightning and radar trends have shown a general
decrease in intensity of convection moving into Deep South Texas.
Recent observed wind gusts with a surging portion of the convective
line from George West/Beeville have been 32-38 kt. As this line
continues southward, MLCIN will remain relatively low given the
mid/upper 70s F dewpoints. Occasionally strong/marginally severe
gusts could occur in an isolated sense. Larger buoyancy resides near
the Rio Grande. Stronger cells within the valley could also produce
damaging gusts and perhaps large hail. Given the observed trends, a
downstream watch is not anticipated.
..Wendt.. 05/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 27810001 28200036 28510017 28379990 28139955 28009889
28299820 28609771 28259738 28189735 27319752 26849761
26809852 26759930 27069960 27810001
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260511T0551.txt
576
ACUS11 KWNS 110251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110251
TXZ000-110515-
Mesoscale Discussion 0701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...south-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197...
Valid 110251Z - 110515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197
continues.
SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts remain possible as activity
spreads south/southeast. Isolated large hail may occur toward the
lower Rio Grande Valley.
DISCUSSION...Storms continue to propagate southeastward across
central TX and toward the Rio Grande Valley as the aggregate
outflow/cold front pushes south. Surface observations have generally
shown gusts of 35 to 50 mph, and this is generally expected as
storms affect the I-35 corridor.
Toward the Rio Grande, sporadic upticks in intensity have been
noted, though the southern portion of this line/outflow has not yet
consolidated into an MCS. This scenario remains possible over the
next several hours as the air mass remains very moist and unstable.
Depending on storm trends, a watch could be needed for parts of Deep
South TX for wind & hail potential.
..Jewell.. 05/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28850059 29169989 29839947 29949885 30159839 30739785
31019723 30949700 30529667 29879670 29379715 28729808
27719990 28090009 28250029 28700052 28850059
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260511T0251.txt
201
ACUS11 KWNS 102315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102315
TXZ000-110215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...much of central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...197...
Valid 102315Z - 110215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196, 197
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe storms moving into central Texas continue to
produce large hail and a few damaging gusts. A transition to
damaging wind threat is expected this evening.
DISCUSSION...Substantial storm clusters persist near the
southward-moving cold front, with very large hail reported in
Runnels County. Another large storm complex was located over
Hamilton County as of 23Z. The air mass remains very moist and
unstable, and will continue to favor southeastward propagation as
the cold front pushes south.
Deep-layer shear is generally near 35 kt and boundary-parallel, and
low-level southeasterly winds are not particularly strong. However,
merging storms and outflows may eventually support forward
acceleration across much of the remainder of the warm sector late
this evening and overnight, with attendant increase in
storm-relative inflow.
Portions of east-central into southeast TX may require a watch later
this evening, should the existing severe activity develop beyond the
eastern boundaries of watches 196/197.
..Jewell.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29930183 30280137 30990105 31579996 31639945 31699840
31749778 31449750 31079717 30789701 30549686 29909704
29739733 29519788 29219879 28800001 28570047 29080069
29680145 29760181 29930183
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T2315.txt
786
ACUS11 KWNS 102302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102301
LAZ000-TXZ000-110030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Texas into southwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102301Z - 110030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail and locally severe wind
gusts will be possible for the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations show a
west/east-oriented low-level confluence zone extending from
southeast TX into southwestern LA -- where a few thunderstorms are
attempting to strengthen. The earlier 18Z LCH sounding sampled steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist PBL -- contributing to around
2500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy and an elongated mid/upper-level
hodograph/strong venting aloft -- evident by eastward expanding
anvils on visible satellite imagery -- will conditionally support a
couple organized storms including supercell structures. Any storms
that can mature/intensify will pose a risk of large hail and locally
severe wind gusts for the next few hours. However, current thinking
is that many of these storms will struggle to mature owing to
midlevel dry air entertainment and overall weak forcing for ascent.
A watch is not expected for this activity in the near term, though
severe storms to the northwest may eventually move into parts of
southeast TX tonight -- and this will be addressed as needed.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29869408 29739516 29669609 29889652 30299663 30709646
30919614 31009552 31039435 30939321 30789254 30519190
30349169 30129164 29899191 29819245 29869408
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T2302.txt
071
ACUS11 KWNS 102235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102235
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-110000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102235Z - 110000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts will
remain possible with the stronger storms for the next couple hours
or so.
DISCUSSION...Widely spaced, loosely organized thunderstorms continue
to evolve within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow on the
far eastern periphery of a remnant outflow boundary extending into
the lower MS Valley. Earlier diurnal heating of a moist air mass and
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 18Z SHV
sounding) have contributed to a moderately unstable air mass. While
low-level flow is weak, a belt of enhanced westerly midlevel flow is
contributing to around 35-40 kt of effective shear. The elongated
mid/upper-level hodograph and aforementioned buoyancy is supporting
briefly organized convective cells -- with an attendant risk of
sporadic severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. However, given
a lack of focused forcing for ascent, the severe risk is expected to
remain transient and brief. Therefore, a watch is not expected,
though a localized severe risk may persist for another couple hours
before the boundary layer nocturnally cools/stabilizes.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32159376 32719323 33179244 33589170 33819104 33919028
33928962 33828896 33688859 33398822 32868802 32308812
31988842 31549034 31229241 31219308 31409363 31839383
32159376
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T2235.txt
136
ACUS11 KWNS 102012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102011
TXZ000-102145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of West Texas into Northwest Texas.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...
Valid 102011Z - 102145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196
continues.
SUMMARY...Hail producing supercells across West Texas and Northwest
Texas are expected to congeal into an MCS by late afternoon/evening
with an increasing severe wind threat.
DISCUSSION...2 distinct areas of supercell development have emerged
near the surface low and near the confluence of the outflow boundary
and synoptic front. Elsewhere, convergence does not appear to be
sufficient for development at this time. The composite front
continues to move south rather quickly across Northwest Texas.
Therefore, the tornado threat may be somewhat lower than previously
thought as supercells continue to get undercut. However, some
tornado threat may exist with the Mitchell county supercell as it
interacts with the front. Given the strongly unstable environment
and increasing shear (KDYX VWP now sampling 40 knots at 6-7km), the
large hail threat will persist for several more hours. In addition,
given the development of several supercells in close proximity to
one another, upscale growth into one or more southeastward moving
clusters/MCSs seems likely by late afternoon. Once this occurs, the
large hail threat will likely transition to more of a severe wind
threat.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32650161 32910091 33119931 32839842 32489750 31489749
30989810 30559961 30450072 30510125 30950188 32650161
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T2012.txt
595
ACUS11 KWNS 101955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101954
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-102130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101954Z - 102130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail
this afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating amid lingering cloud cover is
contributing to modest air mass modification across portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of overnight convection, with
latest mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE has increased to 1250-2000
J/kg across the region. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is
ongoing within this air mass along several surface boundaries. While
low-level flow remains meager (per the LZK VWP), modest westerly
flow aloft is supporting effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts. This
will be sufficient to support a mix of multicells and marginal
supercell structures through the afternoon. Modestly steep low-level
lapse rates (greater than 7 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) may foster
an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts. Small to marginally severe
hail may also be possible with more robust updrafts despite
generally poor mid-level lapse rates. Given the expectation for the
severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage, watch
issuance is unlikely.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33749274 34059308 34629347 35259358 35669352 35979330
36029287 35949162 35629044 35128973 34628915 34168911
33678930 33328974 33229043 33379135 33749274
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T1955.txt
616
ACUS11 KWNS 101911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101910
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-102145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101910Z - 102145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may produce locally strong
wind gusts, with an isolated damaging wind gust or two possible.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts isolated,
low-topped convection developing along portions of the
Appalachians/Blue Ridge. While low-level moisture will limited ahead
of an approaching cold front (surface dewpoints in the 40s to
low-50s F), latest mesoanalysis and recent ACARS profiles from
DCA/BWI depict weak buoyancy (100-300+ J/kg MLCAPE), steep low-level
lapse rates (8.5-9.0 C/km), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers
across the region. This will promote some potential for isolated
gusty winds, and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two, with any
stronger downdrafts as convection spreads eastward across the area.
With the severe risk forecast to remain limited in coverage and
magnitude, watch issuance is not expected.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39347927 39737824 39917767 40147705 40257666 40447614
40527559 40507519 40357492 40087501 39777529 39477564
39237591 38827640 38287730 37917828 37677898 37717973
37878041 38078068 38328071 38898012 39347927
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T1911.txt
216
ACUS11 KWNS 101825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101824
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-102000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101824Z - 102000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An ongoing thunderstorm cluster may persist southeastward
over the next couple of hours, with the potential for eventual
intensification. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be
needed.
DISCUSSION...A persistent convective cluster is ongoing across
portions of northeastern Texas, with latest high-res guidance
continuing to struggle to capture this activity. Latest
surface/mesoanalysis suggests that the environment immediately
downstream of this cluster is located within the remnant outflow of
overnight convection and possesses some residual inhibition (evident
on 18z SHV observed sounding). Thus, one plausible scenario is a
gradual weakening/dissipation of this cluster, with a weakening
trend and surging outflow noted along the southern flank via recent
radar imagery.
A small convective segment with a stronger core is noted along the
eastern edge of this cluster, however. This segment is in closer
proximity to the leading edge of the surface cold pool and more
favorably aligned with westerly deep-layer flow/shear. With
continued diurnal heating modifying the downstream air mass, there
is some potential for this cluster to persist and perhaps intensify
east-southeastward over the next couple of hours. In this scenario,
an increase in the threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps large
hail with any stronger, embedded cores would be possible.
Trends will continue to be monitored, and a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed for a portion of the area should it appear
likely that this cluster will continue to persist.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33289593 33339517 33369392 33269340 33109317 32819289
32419284 31959304 31689374 31609435 31639517 31749596
31909654 32349699 32669693 32979659 33239598 33289593
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T1825.txt
391
ACUS11 KWNS 101756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101755
TXZ000-101930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...parts of West Texas into Northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101755Z - 101930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to form this afternoon with a
threat of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
DISCUSSION...A surface front, reinforced by outflow from morning
convection, is moving slowly southward across northwest Texas. A
warm, moist airmass is present south of this front with temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This currently
yields around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional heating/moistening may
lead to even greater instability by mid to late afternoon.
GOES East meso-sector satellite imagery shows some deepening cumulus
and glaciating tops with a few storms already north of the frontal
boundary. This indicates some ascent across the area. Therefore,
within the next 1 to 2 hours, expect surface based strong to severe
convection along and south of this boundary across northwest Texas
as the remaining CIN erodes.
The DYX VWP is currently sampling around 30 knots of 0-6 km shear.
This shear is expected to increase through the day as the mid-level
flow gradually strengthens. Therefore, supercells are expected with
a large hail threat initially, before growing upscale into a MCS
with an increasing severe wind threat by this evening.
Initial convection appears most likely where convergence is
maximized near the intersection of the outflow and the front near
Haskell and Shackelford counties in Texas.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31480152 32070179 32550192 32800185 32900139 32930086
33040032 33249988 33279926 33069884 32819857 32019837
31349878 30819947 30770007 30720080 30860134 31480152
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T1756.txt
655
ACUS11 KWNS 101725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101724
FLZ000-GAZ000-101900-
Mesoscale Discussion 0692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of North/Central Florida and the Florida
Atlantic Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101724Z - 101900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for
isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail this
afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...The 12z JAX/TBW observed soundings sampled a moist
low-level air mass across much of the Florida Peninsula. Diurnal
heating has since contributed to increasing buoyancy across the
region with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis and recent
ACARS profiles from TPA. Expectation is for widely scattered
thunderstorms to continue to develop along a weak surface trough
across North Florida and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea
breeze. PWATs across the region of 1.75+ inches will promote water
loaded downdrafts and a risk of strong to locally damaging winds.
Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft is also supporting
40-45 kts of effective shear across portions of North Florida. This
will be sufficient to promote updraft organization and potentially
marginal supercell structures, with an associated risk for small to
isolated marginally severe hail with stronger updrafts. This
potential is likely to be tempered with southward extent owing to
warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker shear (30-35 kts) across
much of the Florida Peninsula. Watch issuance is unlikely at this
time owing to the expected limited magnitude/coverage of the severe
risk, but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 30018270 30308240 30508165 30538131 30488121 30238112
29878104 29318083 28808055 28508037 28278038 28028035
27678020 27188001 27037995 26817998 26698016 26748040
26898066 27018084 27098104 27268124 27508146 27878185
28238214 28428231 28648239 29018251 29328262 29658277
29878275 30018270
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260510T1725.txt
