991 
ACUS11 KWNS 112252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112252 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Indiana into far
northwestern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704...

Valid 112252Z - 120015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704
continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts
continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 704. The best
chance for a brief tornado may also exist over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage/intensity have gradually increased
over the past couple of hours as large-scale forcing for ascent has
increasingly overlapped modestly better low-level moisture across
portions of the mid-Ohio River Valley. Thus far, convective mode has
been a mix of supercells and linear segments, with recent reports of
1" and 1.75" hail noted in Indiana. Weak instability (500-1000
J/kg), modest mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km, and cold
temperatures aloft (around -18 to -20 C) will continue to favor a
threat for large hail, especially with any persistent, discrete
supercells. Damaging wind gusts also remain possible, particularly
with ongoing/developing linear segments.

The best chance for a brief tornado may also exist over the next
hour or so prior to the onset of stronger nocturnal cooling and
before the surface cold front begins to outrun the narrow, low-level
moisture plume. The greatest potential is likely to exist with any
discrete supercell located in close proximity to the surface low
noted over western Indiana. Marginal low-level moisture (upper 40s
to mid 50s F surface dewpoints) and generally veered, southwesterly
surface winds suggest any tornado threat is likely to remain
brief/localized, however.

..Chalmers.. 11/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38118794 39458742 39848693 39988673 40058629 39998600
            39568585 38898592 38248635 37948664 37818697 37818744
            37938785 38118794 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20261111T2252.txt



686 
ACUS11 KWNS 111921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111920 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Areas affected...far eastern Illinois into Indiana and Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 111920Z - 112145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase from eastern Illinois into Indiana
and into Kentucky through early evening. Areas of hail will be
likely, with isolated damaging gusts possible. A tornado cannot be
ruled out late in the day into early evening.

DISCUSSION...An upper trough will cold temperatures aloft continues
to move southeastward across the MS and OH Valleys, with a deepening
surface low now over central to east-central IL. Surface analysis
indicates up to 2 mb per hour pressure falls ahead of this low.
Meanwhile, daytime heating persists ahead of the low, with a plume
of 50s F dewpoints spreading northeastward out of MO/AR.

While instability is currently minimal, the combination of low-level
moisture advection with cooling temperatures aloft should favor
increasing instability and storm coverage/intensity later this
afternoon. Given such cold temperatures aloft, and expected cellular
storm mode, hail is likely, some over 1.00" diameter. Fast storm
motions and steepening lapse rates will also favor strong wind
gusts.

The tornado threat is non-zero, and dependent on low-level moisture
quality and storm mode. During the late afternoon into the early
evening, there appears to be a corridor of risk from southern IN
into KY, in closer proximity to the higher dewpoints, and as
low-level SRH possibly increases to 200 m2/s2 just ahead of the main
wind shift.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 11/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   39618826 39938829 40118837 40408823 40468762 40318659
            40068580 39508528 38898507 38398506 37578571 37138667
            37098745 37188805 37518843 37828852 38128843 38828830
            39618826 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20261111T1921.txt