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376
ACUS11 KWNS 140125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140125
MSZ000-LAZ000-140330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239...
Valid 140125Z - 140330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift east along the central Gulf Coast
this evening. Damaging winds are the primary risk.
DISCUSSION...Well-organized MCS has matured along the central Gulf
Coast early this evening. MCV appears to be embedded within the
larger precip shield near the LA/MS border south of Natchez.
Early-day thunderstorm complex that spread along the northeast Gulf
Coast has advanced into the northern FL Peninsula and weakened, but
trailing outflow and rain-cooled boundary layer has stabilized much
of the FL Panhandle into southern AL. As the leading edge of the MCS
surges east into this air mass there should be some propensity for
weakening as it encounters a less favorable environment. Until then,
damaging winds can be expected with the surging squall line.
Given the expected weakening, current thinking is a new watch may
not be warranted.
..Darrow.. 05/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31129258 30778841 28898841 29249260 31129258
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240514T0125.txt
667
ACUS11 KWNS 132321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132320
TXZ000-140045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Deep South Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...
Valid 132320Z - 140045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue across Deep South
Texas in/near WW 238. Expansion area of the WW may be appropriate,
given potential for storms to exit the WW.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong storms crossing Deep
South Texas, largely within WW 238. However, a few storms -- which
have produced hail up to golfball size recently -- may near/move out
of the southeastern fringe of the watch. With a favorably unstable
environment near/south of the front, a focus for ascent, and
deep-layer shear supporting rotating storms, expect risk for large
hail and damaging winds to continue. This suggests consideration
for an extension of the WW to cover additional counties within the
WFO Brownsville area along the river, not currently in the watch.
..Goss.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 26719988 27229986 27649943 27689841 27989790 27769704
26949680 25939720 26329906 26719988
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T2321.txt
612
ACUS11 KWNS 132317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132316
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-140115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...MO Ozarks to Ouachita Mountains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132316Z - 140115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds
exists with convection into the early evening. At this time a severe
thunderstorm watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough
advancing east across eastern KS/OK into MO/AR. Cool mid-levels and
modest deep-layer lapse rates are contributing to adequate buoyancy
immediately ahead of this trough from southern MO into southeast OK.
Scattered robust thunderstorms have evolved within an air mass
characterized by roughly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and strong surface-6km
bulk shear. A few storms have exhibited some weak rotation and
isolated supercells may linger through mid evening until buoyancy
begins to wane with loss of heating. Until then, gusty winds and
some risk for marginally severe hail can be expected with this
activity.
..Darrow/Hart.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34539322 34289503 34799511 35579360 36899232 36519146
34539322
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T2317.txt
288
ACUS11 KWNS 132234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132233
FLZ000-132330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Northeast Gulf Coast Region
Concerning...Tornado Watch 236...
Valid 132233Z - 132330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 236 continues.
SUMMARY...Convection will spread southeast along the northeast FL
Gulf Coast this evening. Primary severe threat is likely isolated
damaging winds. Will continue to monitor immediate downstream
region.
DISCUSSION...Expansive MCS is propagating southeast across northern
FL with a trailing band of strong/severe convection extending across
the northeast Gulf Basin to about 125 miles west-northwest of Tampa.
Surface boundary is currently draped across the northern Peninsula
and this should serve as the focus for this complex as it advances
downstream. Several bow-like segments have evolved along the
southwestern flank this locally damaging winds may accompany this
activity as it approaches Levy/Citrus County area in the next few
hours.
..Darrow.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29828355 29188218 28418269 29118425 29828355
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T2234.txt
563
ACUS11 KWNS 132210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132209
LAZ000-132315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 132209Z - 132315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued soon.
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks.
DISCUSSION...MCS is propagating east across the lower Sabine River
Valley and the leading edge of this activity is surging across
Calcasieu into Jefferson Davis Parish. Damaging winds are likely
associated with this surging bow and the downstream air mass appears
more than buoyant enough to maintain this complex given the observed
shear. New ww will be issued soon.
..Darrow/Hart.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30979241 30969065 29718998 29559244 30979241
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T2210.txt
407
ACUS11 KWNS 132023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132022
LAZ000-TXZ000-132215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...southern Texas into far eastern Lousiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...237...
Valid 132022Z - 132215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235, 237
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues for WW235 and WW237.
DISCUSSION...Storm mode across southern Texas has gradually
transitioned to become linear over the last hour, with two broken
line segments moving eastward. The more western line of convection
has had recent reports of gusts up to 52 mph and golf ball size
hail. The main threat with this more linear convection will remain
damaging wind and large hail, with potential for a tornado or two
through the evening.
More discrete supercells have developed across the south Texas Brush
Country. This is moving eastward into an unstable airmass where
MLCAPE around 3000-4000 J/kg overlaps deep layer shear around 50
kts. This more discrete supercell activity will have the potential
to produce very large hail up to 1-3.5 inches.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 27659727 27379858 27389935 27659995 28160043 28430030
28619954 28839871 29189768 29329719 29849625 30259544
30709381 30679340 30559305 30449280 29789271 29299351
28759508 28199602 27779696 27659727
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T2023.txt
849
ACUS11 KWNS 132004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132004
FLZ000-132130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern Florida
Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132004Z - 132130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
through this afternoon along a seabreeze and stationary boundary.
Strong to severe wind gusts near 50 to 60 mph and perhaps a
landspout are possible.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows deepening
cumulus developing along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. The
latter is further north and draped west to east between Alachua and
Columbia Counties. A few thunderstorms have already developed near
these features as well, and additional diurnal development is
expected. Although deep layer effective shear suggests some updraft
organization may occur, poor mid level lapse rates will keep any
marginally severe hail threat isolated. On the other hand, steep low
level lapse rates/stretching potential and somewhat greater low
level shear over the northern Florida peninsula closer to the
stationary boundary may be sufficient for a brief landspout to occur
with robust updrafts that manage to develop. Localized strong to
severe wind gusts will also be possible with wet microbursts and
merging cells. Given the isolated threat of the severe potential, a
weather watch is not expected at this time.
..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 28648254 28878255 29288283 29798329 30098321 30248305
30238264 29888199 29728172 29368148 29078117 27518057
27408116 27238126 26828124 26788160 27208183 28008209
28648254
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T2004.txt
949
ACUS11 KWNS 131859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131859
FLZ000-GAZ000-132030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0768
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Portions of the Florida panhandle and northern
Florida
Concerning...Tornado Watch 236...
Valid 131859Z - 132030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 236 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds near 60 to 70 mph and a
couple of tornadoes will continue across northern Florida through
this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment over northern Gulf County and and
far southern Calhoun County previously showed signs of mesovortices
trying to develop as it progressed east southeastward. The TLH VAD
profile indicates low level shear upstream of this segment should
continue to support the potential for such vortices. Recent radar
trends, however, suggest the aforementioned feature is struggling to
maintain itself considering upstream moist convection and decreasing
surface based instability. Nonetheless, low level moisture advection
along and south of the stationary boundary will keep LCLs relatively
low. In addition, a few thunderstorms are beginning to develop along
the stationary boundary within the eastern extreme of the watch
where increased insolation is present. A couple of tornadoes remain
possible within this environment, and wind gusts near 60 to 70 mph
may accompany clusters or line segments.
..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29738539 30098540 30268522 30648473 30708440 30618326
30438320 30278321 30148314 30028300 29878289 29678293
29548297 29368306 29308315 29398338 29738539
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T1859.txt
765
ACUS11 KWNS 131739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131739
LAZ000-TXZ000-131945-
Mesoscale Discussion 0767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...southern Texas into southwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 131739Z - 131945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream of WW235. Downstream
watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...A mix of clustered cells and supercell structures have
been ongoing across portions of south-central Texas producing
instances of quarter to half dollar size hail. Ahead of this
activity, dew points are in the upper 70s to near 80 with MLCAPE
around 3000-4000 J/kg. This, in combination with strong deep layer
shear around 45-50 kts will continue to support supercells capable
of very large hail (2-3.5 in). Trends suggest thunderstorms will
gradually grow upscale while moving along a stalled front through
the late afternoon/evening. This will lead to an increase in
damaging wind threat, with potential for wind speeds 70+ mph and a
tornado or two. A downstream watch will likely be needed to cover
this threat.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30499682 31059640 31649528 31639459 31569350 31449238
31239172 30439144 30169141 29819142 29489145 29059155
28739266 28749419 28719532 28799611 29029668 29599684
30499682
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T1739.txt
476
ACUS11 KWNS 131646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131645
TXZ000-131815-
Mesoscale Discussion 0766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...
Valid 131645Z - 131815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail will continue with ongoing
supercells. Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing
concern this afternoon as convection attempts to grow upscale into a
bowing cluster.
DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing to the south of the San
Antonio TX metro as of 1635Z. With extreme instability present
(4000+ J/kg MUCAPE), along with strong deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt,
a supercell mode will likely be maintained in the short term. Steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on area 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP/BRO
will aid robust updraft accelerations and a threat for large to very
large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. To the north
of this supercell into central TX, destructive updraft
interference/interactions have occurred, with a messier storm mode
observed and a lesser threat for large hail. With time, expectations
are for convection to gradually grow upscale into a small bowing
cluster as activity continues eastward through the afternoon. A
greater threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph should exist
once this mode transition occurs.
..Gleason.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29369992 29849930 29949802 29829692 29259685 28799707
28559734 28679902 28679989 28990016 29369992
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T1646.txt
498
ACUS11 KWNS 131529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131528
FLZ000-ALZ000-131630-
Mesoscale Discussion 0765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Portions of far southern AL into the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234...
Valid 131528Z - 131630Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for mainly severe/damaging winds should persist
beyond the scheduled 16Z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
234. A new watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster with a history of producing
severe winds up to 54 kt is ongoing across parts of far
southern/coastal AL into the western FL Panhandle. Latest surface
observations show boundary extends eastward from this cluster very
near/along the FL Panhandle Coast. A moist low-level airmass is
present along/south of this boundary, with surface dewpoints
generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Even modest/filtered heating
of his moist airmass will support at least weak boundary-layer
destabilization, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg per recent
mesoanalysis estimates. VWPs from KEVX/KTLH show a
veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper
levels. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will support continued
organization of the ongoing cluster in the short term, with
severe/damaging winds remaining the primary threat as convection
spreads eastward across much of the FL Panhandle through this
afternoon. But, some concern also exists regarding embedded/QLCS
tornado potential, as 0-1 km shear is sufficient for low-level
updraft rotation. With WW 234 scheduled to expire at 16Z, and the
threat likely to continue this afternoon, a new watch is likely.
..Gleason.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30508777 31148704 30688486 30358346 29958314 29418329
29558509 30038631 29988761 30508777
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T1529.txt
990
ACUS11 KWNS 131400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131400
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131530-
Mesoscale Discussion 0764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Portions of coastal MS/AL into the western FL
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234...
Valid 131400Z - 131530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234
continues.
SUMMARY...A greater threat for severe/damaging winds should focus
along the Mississippi/Alabama Coast into the western Florida
Panhandle this morning.
DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster is ongoing over southern/coastal
AL this morning. A warm front is draped east-southeastward across
southern AL into the western FL Panhandle based on latest surface
observations. Recent velocity data from KMOB show strong inbound
velocities at low levels. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds
should be focused along and south of the warm front into parts of
the western FL Panhandle, where there will be a better likelihood
for downdraft winds to reach the surface. Enhanced low-level flow
and strong boundary-layer shear noted on recent VWPs from KMOB may
also support some threat for an embedded tornado.
..Gleason.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30808891 31018846 31308785 30998676 30768626 30398604
30188628 30248711 30118797 30228860 30378884 30808891
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T1400.txt
288
ACUS11 KWNS 131334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131333
TXZ000-131530-
Mesoscale Discussion 0763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 131333Z - 131530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail and damaging winds should
continue to increase this morning. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...The 12Z sounding from DRT shows rich low-level moisture
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, with resulting MUCAPE
approaching 4000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt will
easily support supercell structures, and multiple thunderstorms have
already developed near Eagle Pass TX with a weak mid-level
perturbation ejecting from northern Mexico across TX. Current
expectations are for this ongoing activity to gradually spread
eastward across south-central TX this morning, while posing a threat
for very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) with any
sustained supercells. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may
also occur as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with filtered
daytime heating. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be
needed to address the increasing threat for very large hail this
morning.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29300086 29780014 29999847 29919717 29199689 28559715
28289844 28210009 28390044 28840081 29300086
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T1334.txt
638
ACUS11 KWNS 131152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131151
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Far Southern Mississippi...Southern
Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234...
Valid 131151Z - 131345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234
continues.
SUMMARY...Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be
possible this morning from far southern Mississippi into southern
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Mobile, AL
shows a cluster of thunderstorms over southern Mississippi and
southern Alabama, with a couple embedded strong storms. This
convection is located along a northwest-to-southeast gradient of
instability, and appears to be elevated in nature. However, forecast
soundings across the western Florida Panhandle have MUCAPE around
1000 J/kg, with effective shear near 60 knots and 0-3 storm-relative
helicity just above 200 m2/s2. This should support a wind-damage
threat, and perhaps a potential for a brief tornado, if the cells
can become more surface-based. The threat would be the greatest with
cells that can move more southeastward into the stronger instability
near the coast.
..Broyles.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 31368546 31668686 31748799 31608847 31418869 31028897
30758897 30558873 30378829 30178748 30048668 29868582
29918539 30178513 30658501 31148518 31368546
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T1152.txt
993
ACUS11 KWNS 130940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130939
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...Southern Alabama...Western
Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 130939Z - 131045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be
possible for several more hours, as a line segment moves
east-southeastward from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance will
likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Jackson, MS shows
an organized line segment moving east-southwestward across southern
Mississippi. This line is being supported by a shortwave trough,
evident on water vapor imagery, and is located along a gradient of
instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range.
Along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor, regional
WSR-88D VWPs and RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 60
to 75 knot range. This should continue to be favorable for storm
organization for several more hours. Wind damage will be possible
along the leading edge of the line. In addition, the WSR-88 VWP at
Fort Rucker, AL has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2
suggesting an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. The
severe threat may increase along the leading edge of the line, if it
can become more surface-based.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32218844 32208921 31878958 31538980 31198975 31018952
30238754 29968668 30128597 30528570 30968558 31488614
31898725 32188824 32218844
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T0940.txt
921
ACUS11 KWNS 130935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130934
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...Southern Alabama...Western
Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 130934Z - 131030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be
possible for several more hours, as a line segment moves
east-southeastward from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance will
likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Jackson, MS shows
an organized line segment moving east-southwestward across southern
Mississippi. This line is being supported by a shortwave trough,
evident on water vapor imagery, and is located along a gradient of
instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range.
Along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor, regional
WSR-88D VWPs and RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 60
to 75 knot range. This should continue to be favorable for storm
organization for several more hours. Wind damage will be possible
along the leading edge of the line. In addition, the WSR-88 VWP at
Fort Rucker, AL has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2
suggesting an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. The
severe threat may increase along the leading edge of the line, if it
can become more surface-based.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32218844 32208921 31878958 31538980 31198975 31018952
30238754 29968668 30128597 30528570 30968558 31488614
31898725 32188824 32218844
File: /opt/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20240513T0935.txt
